The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate AMAP 978-82-7971-069-1 – ISBN �� Citation: AMAP, 2011

(2011) 4

No.

on Report Technical Christensen, J. Shevchenko, AMAP V. Carbon Burkhart, F. Shepherd, J. M. Black Berntsen, T. of Lihavainen, H. Arneth, A. Vestreng Climate Kupiainen, Stohl, V. K. A. Impact and

Quinn,

Flanner, Skov, H. P. K . M. Arctic The

The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate AMAP 978-82-7971-069-1 – ISBN Citation: AMAP, 2011. The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate (2011). By: P.K. Quinn, A. Stohl, A. Arneth, T. Berntsen, J. F. Burkhart, J. Christensen, M. Flanner, K. Kupiainen, H. Lihavainen, M. Shepherd, V. Shevchenko, H. Skov, and V. Vestreng. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo. 72 pp. ISBN – 978-82-7971-069-1 © Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, 2011 Available as an electronic document from www.amap.no Authors/AMAP Short-lived Climate Forcers Expert Group P. K . Quinn1, A. Stohl2, A. Arneth3, T. Berntsen4, J. Burkhart2, J. Christensen5, M. Flanner6, K. Kupiainen7,8, H. Lihavainen9, M. Shepherd10, V. Shevchenko11, H. Skov5, and V. Vestreng12 1NOAA Paci"c Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA 2Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway 3Lund University, Lund, Sweden 4University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway 5Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark 6University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA 7Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland 8International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria 9Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland 10Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada 11P. P. Shirshov Insitute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 12Norwegian Pollution Control Authorities, Oslo, Norway AMAP Short-lived Climate Forcers Expert Group Chairs: Patricia K. Quinn (USA), Andreas Stohl (Norway) Scienti"c Secretary: John F Burkhart Editing: Kristine Aasarød, Ann-Christine Engvall Stjernberg Production: Carolyn Symon ([email protected]), John Bellamy ([email protected]) Printing: Narayana Press, Denmark (a swan-labelled printing company, 541 562) Cover photo: Collecting the ‘Summit 99’ ice core at Summit, Greenland Copyright holders and suppliers of photographic material reproduced in this volume are listed in context.

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) was established in June 1991 by the eight Arctic countries (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States) to implement parts of the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS). AMAP is now one of six working groups of the Arctic Council, members of which include the eight Arctic countries, the six Arctic Council Permanent Participants (indigenous peoples’ organizations), together with observing countries and organizations.

AMAP’s objective is to provide ‘reliable and su!cient information on the status of, and threats to, the Arctic environment, and to provide scienti"c advice on actions to be taken in order to support Arctic governments in their e#orts to take remedial and preventive actions to reduce adverse e#ects of contaminants and climate change’.

AMAP produces, at regular intervals, assessment reports that address a range of Arctic pollution and climate change issues, including e#ects on health of Arctic human populations. These are presented to Arctic Council Ministers in ‘State of the Arctic Environment’ reports that form a basis for necessary steps to be taken to protect the Arctic and its inhabitants.

AMAP technical reports are intended to communicate the results of scienti"c work that contributes to the AMAP as sessment process. This report has been subject to a formal and comprehensive peer review process. The results and any views expressed in this series are the responsibility of those scientists and experts engaged in the preparation of the reports and have not been approved by either the AMAP working group or the Arctic Council.

AMAP would like to express its appreciation to the Nordic Council of Ministers, Norway, Canada and the USA for their "nancial support and to sponsors of projects that have delivered data for use in this technical assessment.

The AMAP Secretariat is located in Oslo, Norway. For further information regarding AMAP or ordering of reports, please contact the AMAP Secretariat (PO Box 8100 Dep., N-0032 Oslo, Norway) or visit the AMAP website at www.amap.no.

Contents

1. Introduction ...... 1

2. Formation and properties of black carbon ...... 4

3. Measurement and modeling of black carbon concentrations ...... 6 3.1. Overview of BC measurements ...... 6 3.2. Atmospheric measurement of BC ...... 8 3.2.1. Measurement of absorption ...... 8

3.2.1.1. Filter-based absorption photometer ...... 8

3.2.1.2. Photoacoustic spectrometer ...... 9 3.2.2. Measurement of BC mass ...... 9

3.2.2.1. Filter-based thermal-optical carbon analyzer ...... 9

3.2.2.2. Single particle soot photometer ...... 10 3.3. Measurement of BC in snow ...... 10 3.3.1. Measurement of BC mass in snow ...... 10 3.3.2. Measurement of absorption due to BC in snow ...... 10 3.4. Methods for modeling BC in the Arctic ...... 10 4. Emissions of black carbon and organic carbon in the Arctic context ...... 11 4.1. Overview ...... 11 4.1.1. Emissions of BC and OC ...... 12 4.1.2. Anthropogenic emissions of BC and OC in 2000 ...... 13 4.1.3. BC and OC emissions in the Arctic Council nations ...... 16 4.1.4. Arctic shipping ...... 18 4.1.5. Emissions in the AMAP area ...... 20 4.1.6. Forest and grassland !res (natural and semi-natural !res) ...... 23 4.1.7. BC emission inventory uncertainties ...... 26 4.2. Future emissions scenarios ...... 27 4.3. BC and OC emissions scenarios outside the Arctic Council nations ...... 28 4.4. Emissions of co-emitted species ...... 28 5. Transport of black carbon to the Arctic ...... 29 5.1. Conceptual overview ...... 29 5.2. BC source regions ...... 32 6. Black carbon distribution, seasonality, and trends ...... 39 6.1. Distribution of BC ...... 39 6.1.1. Atmosphere ...... 39 6.1.2. Snow ...... 41 6.2. Seasonality in atmospheric BC concentrations ...... 42 6.3. Trends ...... 44 6.3.1. Historical trends ...... 44 6.3.2. Measured trends ...... 44

7. Mechanisms of Arctic climate forcing by black carbon ...... 45 7.1. Atmospheric forcing ...... 45 7.2. Indirect and semi-direct atmospheric forcing ...... 48 7.3. Snow and ice forcing ...... 48 7.4. Dynamical in!uence on response to forcing ...... 49 7.5. Summary ...... 49 8. Linking sources to Arctic radiative forcing ...... 50 8.1. Introduction to modeling studies conducted for this report ...... 50 8.2. Emissions used ...... 51 8.3. Model description ...... 52 8.4. Model results ...... 52 8.4.1. Contribution to change in BC burden ...... 52 8.4.2. Contribution to RF in the Arctic ...... 53 8.4.3. RF per unit emission ...... 56 8.4.4. RF by latitude of emissions ...... 57 8.4.5. RF due to projected increases in global and Arctic shipping ...... 57 8.4.6. Relation between RF and temperature change ...... 58 9. Summary "ndings on impacts of black carbon on Arctic climate and relevance to mitigation actions ...... 60

10. Information and science needs ...... 61 10.1. Recommendations for improved characterization of spatial and vertical distribution of BC and OC in the Arctic environment and deposition processes ...... 61 10.2. Recommendations for emissions information ...... 62 10.3. Recommendations for model development, evaluation and application ...... 62 References ...... 63

Abbreviations ...... 70

Sea Ice Extent-September 2010 1. Introduction Total extent = 4.9 million sq km median ice edge

ii 1

Winter Spring Summer Longwave indirect BC snow albedo Aerosol indirect e!ect Aerosol direct e!ect e!ect e!ect Less re"ection from darkened snow and Stronger re"ection: ice surfaces aerosols enhance cloud albedo Biomass buming Thin clouds or other pollution layers lead to shortwave aerosol aerosol absorbtion: ∆TA > 0 aerosol

Less radiation reaches the surface and leads to cooling, Net e#ect at surface can but net e#ect over be positive or negative, bright surfaces is small depending on aerosol type Enhanced because little radiation and surface albedo Cloud is absorbed anyway Longwave Enhanced Reduced Emissivity longwave shortwave ∆Ts > 0 ∆T > 0 ∆Ts > 0 s

BC deposit ∆Ts ≈ 0 ∆Ts ≈ 0 Earlier melting ∆Ts < 0 ∆Ts < 0

(Section 6) (Section 4) (Section 5) (Section 8) Atmospheric Emissions Arctic regional Composition response within the Climate global system Response Response Non-Arctic Arctic Atmospheric loading Transport Radiative Forcing Temperature (total column) Albedo Impacts Precipitation Anthropogenic Surface concentrations Cloud Impacts Snow / Ice cover Forest / grass wild!res Surface deposition and extent (Section 3) (Section 7)

Feedbacks

2. Formation and properties of black carbon

Evolution of BC particles in the Arctic Black carbon particles undergo transformation as they are transported to the Arctic. Initially emitted as hydrophobic, they are resistant to removal from the atmosphere through wet deposition so that they are able to enter the free troposphere. During transport, they grow through coagulation with other particles and condensation of gas phase species. 1 2 Transport During transport, on a timescale of tens of hours, aggregates form external mixtures (1), which are hydrophilic. These eventually, after chemical mixing, form a mixture of coated and internally mixed particles (2). The radiative impact of these particles is highly dependent on mixing state. Emissions During combustion hundreds of particles form aggregates or chain like structures. Soot particle An individual soot particle of organized graphitic layers has a typical diameter of ~100 nm and is hydrophobic.

3. Measurement and modeling of black carbon concentrations 3.1. Overview of BC measurements

3.2. Atmospheric measurement of BC 3.2.1. Measurement of absorption 3.2.1.1. Filter-based absorption photometer

2009 2009Canada Canada 2008 2008Switchyard BarrowSwitchyard U.Barrow Victoria GreenlandU. Victoria TromsoGreenland RussiaTromso Russia 2007 2007 North Pole GreenlandNorth Pole Greenland AWS SvalbardGreenland AWS RussiaSvalbard CanadaRussia APLISCanada SvalbardAPLIS NPI McCailSvalbard Glacier NPI McCail Glacier 1983-2006 1983-2006Clarke and Noone 1983-1984Clarke and Noone 1983-1984 SHEBA 1998 HOTRAXSHEBA 1998 2005 GreenlandHOTRAX 2005 2006 Greenland 2006

3.2.2. Measurement of BC mass 3.2.2.1. Filter-based thermal-optical carbon analyzer 3.2.1.2. Photoacoustic spectrometer

3.2.2.2. Single particle soot photometer 3.3.2. Measurement of absorption due to BC in snow 3.4. Methods for modeling BC in the 3.3. Measurement of BC in snow Arctic 3.3.1. Measurement of BC mass in snow

4. Emissions of black carbon and organic carbon in the Arctic context 4.1. Overview

4.1.1. Emissions of BC and OC

Tg/1.9 degrees latitude 0.40 BC 0.35 4.1.2. Anthropogenic emissions of BC and 0.30 OC in 2000 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0 -6.6 0.9 8.5 -90.0-82.4-74.8-67.3-59.7-52.1-44.5-36.9-29.4-21.8-14.2 16.1 23.7 31.3 38.8 46.4 54.0 61.6 69.2 76.7 84.3 Latitude Tg/1.9 degrees latitude 0.70 OC 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0 -6.630.95 8.53 -90.00-82.42-74.84-67.26-59.68-52.11-44.53-36.95-29.37-21.79-14.21 16.1123.6831.2638.8446.4254.0061.5869.1676.7484.32 Latitude Shipping Domestic Energy and industrial production, waste Agricultural burning Transport

BC OC Land transport Land transport

BC OC Domestic combustion Domestic combustion

BC OC Agricultural waste burning Agricultural waste burning

mol/cm2/s

0.0 4.0E+08 8.0E+08 1.2E+09 1.6E+09 2.0E+09 (data min = 0.0, max = 3.49E+09)

Canada* Nordic 3% countries* Others 3% 8% EU-27 Ukraine (excluding 5% the Arctic Council member countries) United States 37% of America* 13%

China 15% Russia* 16%

North America Europe, European Russia Central and NE Asia, Asian Russia Fire counts Fire counts Fire counts 1600 2002 50000 20000 1400 2003 40000 1200 15000 2001 1000 30000 800 10000 600 20000 400 5000 10000 200 0 0 0 J FM MAJJ ASOND J FM MAJJ ASOND J FM MAJJ ASOND

4.1.3. BC and OC emissions in the Arctic Council nations Global Arctic nations Emissions, Gg/y Emissions, Gg/y 12000 1200 10000 1000 8000 800 600 6000 4000 400 2000 200 0 0 BC OC BC OC Rest of world Arctic nations United States Russia Nordic countries Canada

Canada Canada BC emissions, Gg/y OC emissions, Gg/y 60 120

50 100

40 80

30 60

20 40

10 20

0 0 Bond AMAP emissions GAINS Bond AMAP emissions GAINS inputs inputs

Nordic countries Nordic countries BC emissions, Gg/y OC emissions, Gg/y 40 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 10 20 5 10 0 0 Bond AMAP emissions GAINS Bond AMAP emissions GAINS inputs inputs

Russia Russia BC emissions, Gg/y OC emissions, Gg/y 250 700 600 200 500 150 400 300 100 200 50 100 0 0 Bond AMAP emissions GAINS Bond AMAP emissions GAINS inputs inputs

United States United States BC emissions, Gg/y OC emissions, Gg/y 450 600 400 500 350 300 400 250 300 200 150 200 100 100 50 0 0 Bond AMAP emissions GAINS Bond AMAP emissions GAINS inputs inputs

Other Flaring Agricultural Energy and industrial production, waste Transport Domestic

4.1.4. Arctic shipping

2004 BC emissions 2030 BC emissions - no control

2030 BC emissions - MFR control BC emissions, g/5km grid cell

2 to 535

536 to 1267

1268 to 3209

3210 to 8981

8982 to 997,817

4.1.5. Emissions in the AMAP area

80° N

70° N

60° N

Boundaries of the Arctic Arctic Circle AMAP area

BC and OC emissions, Mg BC and OC emissions, Mg 4000 250 OC 3500 200 OC 3000

2500 150 2000 100 1500 BC 1000 50 500 BC

0 0

Industry Industry

Electricity and Electricity and O!-road: Marine O!-road: Diesel O!-road: Diesel O!-road: Aviation O!-road: Gasoline O!-road: Marine Heat Generation Heat Generation Residential ( wood) Road Transport: Diesel Open sources/burning Road Transport:O!-road: Diesel Aviation, Rail Open sources/burning Road Transport: Gasoline Road Transport: Gasoline Commercial and Institutional O!-road: Gasoline, LPG, CNG Residential (3/4 wood, 1/4 coal)

BC emissions, Mg 25 20 15 1990 10 2000 5 2010 0 Road Navigation Public power Civil Aviation Fishery (mobile)Military (mobile) InstitutionalDomestic plants heating Combustion-industry

2007 Daily cruises 2006 2005 Goods transport 2004 Barentsburg 2003 2002 2001 Coal transportation Barentsburg 2000

Administration and surveillance

Goods transport LYR

Research Vessels

Expeditions

Coal transportation Svea

International cruises

0 5 10 15 20 25 BC emissions, Mg

4.1.6. Forest and grassland !res (natural and semi-natural !res)

Global Arctic nations Global Arctic nations OC emissions, Gg/y OC emissions, Gg/y BC emissions, Gg/y BC emissions, Gg/y 30000 6000 3000 600 25000 5000 2500 500 20000 4000 2000 400 3000 1500 300 15000

1000 200 10000 2000

500 100 5000 1000

0 0 0 0

Rest of world Arctic nations United States Russia Nordic countries Canada

Latitude 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 -90 90 60 30 0 -30 -60 -90 1999-12 2000-01 2000-02 2000-03 2000-04 2000-05 2000-06 2000-07 2000-08 2000-09 2000-10 2000-11 2000-12 kg/m2/s

0.0 1.0E+09 2.0E+09 3.0E+09 4.0E+09 5.0E+09 (data min = 0.0, max = 1.39E+10)

4.1.7. BC emission inventory uncertainties

Fossil fuel BC emissions, Gg/y BC emissions, Gg/y 500 250 30° to 60° N

400 Low 200 Central 300 High 150 Asia

200 100 Europe

100 50 North America

0 0 -90 -45 0 45 90 -180 -90 0 90 180 Latitude Longitude

Biomass and biofuel BC emissions, Gg/y BC emissions, Gg/y 600 80 30° to 60° N 500 70 Low 60 400 Central 50 Asia High 300 40 North America Europe 200 30 20 100 10 0 0 -90 -45 0 45 90 --180 -90 0 90 180 Latitude Longitude

BC emissions, Gg/y 700 600 500

400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 CLE CLE Low GAINS GAINS GAINS 2020 2030 2030 OC emissions, Gg/y 900 800 700 600 500 4.2. Future emissions scenarios 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 CLE CLE Low GAINS GAINS GAINS 2020 2030 2030 Other Flaring Agricultural Energy and industrial production, waste Transport Domestic

BC emissions, Gg/y 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 GAINS AMAP CLE CLE Low 2000 emission GAINS GAINS GAINS inputs 2020 2030 2030 2000 OC emissions, Gg/y 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 GAINS AMAP CLE CLE Low 2000 emission GAINS GAINS GAINS inputs 2020 2030 2030 2000 Other Flaring Agricultural Energy and industrial production, waste Transport Domestic 4.3. BC and OC emissions scenarios outside the Arctic Council nations 4.4. Emissions of co-emitted species

CH4 ÷ 10 CO ÷ 10 2005 NO X CLE GAINS 2030 Low GAINS 2030 SO 2 OC x 10

BC x 10 0 10000 20000 30000 Emissions, Gg/y

5. Transport of black carbon to the Arctic 5.1. Conceptual overview

6. Fast transport 8. Pyro-Cb: in free troposphere Injection into with multiple aerosol 4. Slow descent into polar dome stratosphere Tropopause removal events 5. Slow mixing into polar dome

9. Top of Greenland 1. Lifting at Arctic front, does not receive BC deposition on snow low-level transport Polar Dome 3 . Low -le vel tra ns Arctic sources po rt pollute directly

2. Lifting at low latitudes Greenland 7. Agricultural !res removes most can emit aerosols into aerosols out- free troposphere with Eurasia side the Arctic North America little removal

Zeppelin Alert Barrow Summit

Winter 3 ST, ns * m /kg 0.0001 0.0005 0.0007 0.001 0.005 0.0075 0.01 0.05 0.075 0.1 Summer

5.2. BC source regions

a b BB enhancement/background burden, % BB enhancement/background burden, % 300 300

250 April 2008 250 April 2003-2007

200 200 Gas phase Aerosol 150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0

CO BC CO BC

Propane Acetone Propane Acetone BenzeneMethanol BenzeneMethanol Acetonitrile N-pentane Acetonitrile N-pentane Aerosol mass Aerosol mass Aerosol sulfate Aerosol sulfate Aerosol organics Aerosol organics

Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov

R90

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 R10

EBC concentration, ng/m3 Alert 100 50

Barrow 60 40 20 0

Zeppelin 60 40 20 0 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Arctic Ocean North America North Paci!c Ocean and Southeast Asia Northern Eurasia Western Northern Eurasia Eastern Northern Eurasia

Pressure, hPa Pressure, hPa

50 Spring ARCTAS 50 Spring ARCTAS NASA DC-8 NASA P3-B April April 100 100

200 200

500 500

1000 1000

50 ARCPAC 50 Summer ARCTAS NOAA WP-3D NASA DC-8 April June-July 100 100

200 200

500 500

1000 1000 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 BC concentration, ng/kg 50 Summer ARCTAS NASA P3B June-July Campaigns 100 80°N Spring ARCTAS Spring ARCTAS 200 60°N Spring ARCPAC Summer ARCTAS

500 40°N Summer ARCTAS

180°E 120°E 60°E 0°E 1000 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 BC concentration, ng/kg Models ARQM SPRINTARS MOZART UIO GCM (dash) GOCART TM5 (dash) CAM LOA MPI ULAQ (dash) MATCH GISS LSCE MIRAGE UMI (dash) UIO CTM DLR (dash)

3 BC concentration, ng/kg BC surface concentration, ng/m 1000 Observations Alert 200 Alert (1989-2005) Original run Observation Dry deposition run 100 150 In-cloud run Enhanced run Improved 10 100

Original 1.0 50

0 0.1

1000 Barrow 120 Barrow (1988-2007)

100 90

10 60

1.0 30

0 0.1

1000 Zeppelin 120 Zeppelin (1998-2008)

100 90

10 60

1.0 30

0 0.1 FJ MMAJAOD J S N FJ MMAJAOD J S N

BC concentration, ng/m3 BC concentration, ng/m3

80 80 Measured values Nord Alert 60 60 DEHM calculated values

40 40

20 20

0 0

80 80 Zeppelin Barrow

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09

80 Summit 60

20 0 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09

Measured BC Modelled BC Modelled BC concentration, ng/m3 concentration, ng/m3 EBC concentration, ng/m3 concentration, ng/m3 20 20 80 Nord 80 Alert Measured values 15 15 60 60

OSLO CTM2 10 10 40 calculated values 40

20 5 20 5 NCAR CCSM calculated values 0 0 0 0 Measured BC concentration, ng/m3 EBC concentration, ng/m3 20 20 80 Zeppelin 80 Barrow 15 15 60 60

10 10 40 40

20 5 20 5

0 0 0 0 EBC concentration, ng/m3 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 20 80 Summit 15 60

10 40 20 5 0 0 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09

6. Black carbon distribution, seasonality, and trends 6.1. Distribution of BC 6.1.1. Atmosphere

Altitude, km Altitude, km ARCTAS DC-8 (North Alska April) ARCTAS DC-8 (Arctic NA April) 12 Improved 10 10 Observation 8 8 Original 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

ARCTAS DC-8 (Arctic NA July) ARCTAS DC-8 (South Canada July) 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000

ARCTAS P-3B (Alaska April) ARCTAS P-3B (Canada July)

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 BC concentration, ng/kg BC concentration, ng/kg

Altitude, km 8 Arctic, 12 April 2008 Arctic, 15-21 April 2008 Midlatitudes, 11 September - 12 October 2006 6 4 6.1.2. Snow 2

0 1 10 100 1000 BC mass mixing ratio, ng/kg Altitude, km 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 15 March

11 March 1 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 BC concentration, ng/m3

6.2. Seasonality in atmospheric BC concentrations

EBC concentration, ng/m3 104 Alert

103 2 10 101 0 10

104 Barrow 3 10 102 101 100 EBC concentration, ng/m3 120 100 Alert 80 Barrow 60

40 20 0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

6.3.2. Measured trends 6.3. Trends 6.3.1. Historical trends Global BC emissions, Tg/y 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1850 1900 1950 2000

BC emissions, kg x 10-5/m2/y BC emissions, kg x 10-5/m2/y

8 Fossil fuel and biofuel 3 Biomass burning 1750 1850 7 1900 2.5 1910 6 1920 1930 1940 2 5 1950 1960 1970 4 1980 1.5 1990 3 2000 1 2 0.5 1

0 0 90° S 60° S 30° S 0 30° N 60° N 90° N 90° S 60° S 30° S 0 30° N 60° N 90° N

7. Mechanisms of Arctic climate forcing by black carbon 7.1. Atmospheric forcing

Arctic BC burden, Gg 9 8 7 6 5 4 CAM 3.1 CAM 3.5 (O!ine Met) 3 2 1 CAM 4.0 0 1234 5678910 11 12 Month

7.2. Indirect and semi-direct atmospheric forcing 7.3. Snow and ice forcing

7.5. Summary 7.4. Dynamical in!uence on response to forcing

8. Linking sources to Arctic radiative forcing 8.1. Introduction to modeling studies conducted for this report

8.2. Emissions used

8.3. Model description 8.4. Model results 8.4.1. Contribution to change in BC burden

Annual tropospheric burden in the Arctic, Mg 500 Arctic BC burden, Gg 1.3

400

300 0

Russia Canada

200 United States Rest of World Nordic countries

100

0 Domestic Energy+ Transport Agricultural Grass+ Industrial+ Fires Forest Fires Waste

Emission region Model used United States Canada Russia Nordic countries Rest of World Darker color - NCAR CCSM Lighter color - Oslo CTM2

8.4.2. Contribution to RF in the Arctic

a 90N

80N

70N

60N

50N

40N

30N

20N

10N

EQ 180 120W 60W 0 60E 120E 180

1 2 5 10 22 46 100 215 464 1000 ng BC / g ice

b 85N

60N

30N

30S

60S

85S 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 35E

0.50 521 10 20 50 100 200 500 ng BC / g ice

Atmospheric direct RF due to BC, mW/m2 30 60° N to 90° N 25 20 15 10 5 0 Domestic Energy+ Transport Agricultural Grass+ Industrial+ Fires Forest Fires Waste

Atmospheric direct RF due to BC+OC, mW/m2 30 60° N to 90° N 25 20 15 10 5 0 Domestic Energy+ Transport Agricultural Grass+ Industrial+ Fires Forest Fires Waste Emission region Model used United States Canada Russia Nordic countries Rest of World Darker color - NCAR CCSM Lighter color - Oslo CTM2

RF due to snow/ice BC, mW/m2 30 60° N to 90° N 25

0 Domestic Energy+ Transport Agricultural Grass+ Industrial+ Fires Forest Fires Waste

Emission region Model used United States Canada Russia Nordic countries Rest of World Darker color - NCAR CCSM Lighter color - Oslo CTM2

RF due to BC+OC (60° N to 90° N), mW/m2 80 Nordic United Canada Russia Rest of countries States World 60 8.4.3. RF per unit emission

40 20 Atmospheric direct (BC+OC) Snow/ice (BC) 0 Domestic Energy + Industrial + Watse Transport Agricultural Fires Grass + Forest Fires

Direct RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y 0.4 60° N to 90° N

0.3

0.2

0.1

0 Domestic Energy+ Transport Agricultural Grass+ Industrial+ Fires Forest Fires Waste Emission region Model used United States Canada Russia Nordic countries Rest of World Darker color - NCAR CCSM Lighter color - Oslo CTM2

Snow/ice RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y 0.4 60° N to 90° N

0.3

0.2

0.1

RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y RF, mW/m2 70 60° N to 90° N Nordic United Canada Russia Rest of 1.0 countries States World 60

50 Atmospheric direct (BC+OC) 0.8 40 Snow/ice (BC) 30 0.6 Snow/ice (BC) 20

0.4 10

Atmospheric 0 0.2 direct (BC+OC) RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y 0.25 60° N to 90° N 0

Domestic Energy + Industrial + Watse Transport 0.20 Agricultural Fires Grass + Forest Fires

0.15 0.10

0.05

0 90° S – 40° N 40° – 50° N 50° – 60° N 60° – 90° N Source region

8.4.4. RF by latitude of emissions 8.4.5. RF due to projected increases in global and Arctic shipping

2 RF, mW/m 7 60° N to 90° N

6 8.4.6. Relation between RF and 5 temperature change 4 3 Snow/ice (BC) 2 Atmospheric direct (BC+OC) 1 0 RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y 0.8 60° N to 90° N 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Global Global Global Arctic Arctic Arctic 2005 2030 2050 2005 2030 2050

RF per unit BC emission, mW/m2 per Gg/y 2.0 Normalized net Normalized net Normalized net forcing for Arctic Council forcing for emissions forcing for projected Nation emissions by latitude band shipping emissions 1.5 Within Arctic 1.0

0.5 Global

0.0

Russia 2005 2030 2050 2005 2030 2050 Canada 40° – 50° N 50° – 60° N 60° – 90° N United States Rest of World 90° S – 40° N Nordic countries

Response, °C, per unit positive global RF, wM/m2 0.45 60° N to 90° N

0.30

0.15

-015 28°-90° S 28° S-28° N 28°-60° N 60°-90° N Forcing location

Carbon dioxide BC without AIE BC Sulfate without AIE Sulfate Ozone

9. Summary !ndings on impacts of black carbon on Arctic climate and relevance to mitigation actions

10. Information and science needs 10.1. Recommendations for improved characterization of spatial and vertical distribution of BC and OC in the Arctic environment and deposition processes

10.3. Recommendations for model development, evaluation and application

10.2. Recommendations for emissions information

References

Abbreviations

The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate AMAP 978-82-7971-069-1 – ISBN ��������������� Citation: AMAP, 2011

The Impact of Black Carbon on Arctic Climate AMAP 978-82-7971-069-1 – ISBN �� Citation: AMAP, 2011