Institute of Urban and Regional Development (IURD) TRANSIT & CITIES CONFERENCE UC Berkeley March 20-21, 2014 Plenary Session 4: The Economics of Sustainable Transit
Jin Murakami [email protected] March 21, 2014 @ Berkeley CA City University of Hong Kong
Airport Access Transit & Economic Benefits - Findings from Asia - Mega Investment in Airport Access Lines across the World
BART SFO Extension, 2003 Shenzhen Metro Airport Line, 2015
Tokyo Narita Sky Access, 2010 HK Airport Core Program, 1998
Intercity Travel Market & Intracity Last-Mile Cost Hong Kong’s Airport Express Line (1998) Intercity Travel Cost + Last-Mile Access Cost *Generalized by the finance & business service sector’s hourly GDP per worker in Hong Kong, 2012 6,000 5.1% 5,000 11.8% 12.9% 4,000
3,000 10.3%
Cost HK$ 2,000
1,000
0 HSR Air HSR Air HK - Beijing HK - Wuhan 1,970 km 910 km (Mid-Haul) (Short-Haul)
Ground Transportation Access Market Share of Airport Express Line, 2012 Insufficient User Benefit? 35,000 21.8% passengers per day (Gold Standard???) External Economic Benefit (Justification for Mega Investment) Airport Express Other (Bus, Taxi etc.) Sources: Jin Murakami with Weimin Lin (2013); MTR Corporation (2013) Does Airport Access Transit Increase Economic Productivity? 90Citieswiththe100BusiestAirports DeterminantsofGMPperCapita2012(LogͲLog) N=90WorldBusiestAirportCities :OLSRsquared=.44 :2SLSRsquared=.44 Instrumented:“AccessTimebyTransit”
Key Facts:
Rail Access: 57 of 90 airport cities Accesstime
Ave. Population: 8.9 million Elasticity bytransit Ave. Access Time: 35.3 minutes Ave. Generalized Access Cost: $16.1 Ͳ0.27***,Ͳ0.32*** Ave. GMP per Capita: $41,095 TwoͲWayCausality: + AirportAccess City’sEconomic Investment Productivity + Source: Jin Murakami with Yurika Matsui & Hironori Kato (2014) The University of Tokyo
Airport Access & Worker Productivity within Tokyo DeterminantsofValueAddedperWorker,267municipalitieswithinTokyo,2012 GeographicallyWeightedRegression (GWR): :OLS R2=0.53 CoefficientsofRailAccessTime :2SLS R2=0.53 Instrumented: Railaccesstime
Railaccess
Elasticity time
Ͳ0.29***,Ͳ0.38***
TwoͲWayCausality&SpatialEffect: Attract Attract Economy Demand Finance firms Finance firms + Agglomeration + + Agglomeration +
AirportAccess + Worker’s AirportAccess Worker’s Investment Productivity Investment + Productivity Source: Jin Murakami with Yurika Matsui & Hironori Kato (2014) The University of Tokyo Scenario Test: Airport Access for Tokyo’s Global Competitiveness? New Investment Proposal (2013) Scenario 9 The(foreign)financesector’sshare Tokyo Station increasesinthe10CBDwardsby12.5%. 9 AccesstraveltimetoHaneda Airportis reducedby10minutes. 9 Thereisnolocationalredistributionof activitieswithinthemetropolitanarea. Impact on GMP per Capita Ranking among the 90 Airport Cities Haneda Airport st 15.2 USD151,400 1 15.0 USD148,000 14.8
14.6
14.4
14.2 st Tokyo 41th Tokyo 14.0 44 (3Rankup) Present NewInvestment (Present) Addedvalueperworkerinthe10CBDwards
Debatable & Missing Points
Waiting,baggagehandling,anddelayingcostsatairportsare muchgreaterthanlastͲmileaccess/egresscosts?ͲͲ Airlinevs. HSR; Withlowridership,reductionintrafficcongestion,carparking costs,andemissionsaroundairportscouldbesufficienttojustify suchlargepublicspendinginairportaccesstransit?ͲͲ environmentaloutcomes; NonͲbusinesspurposetravelersandlocalsmallbusinessowners gainexternaleconomicbenefits?ͲͲ impactontourism; Airportaccesstransitenhancesinternationalbusiness competitivenessattheexpenseoflocalcommunitylivabilityin redistributiveways?ͲͲ lackofplacemakingandsocialequity; Howtofinancecompetitiveandsustainableairportcitiesorthe “Aerotropolis”inpractice?ͲͲ proactivelanduseplansandspecific valuecapturetechniquesalongairportͲaccesstransitcorridors Land Value Capture Practice along HK’s Airport Express Line “R+P” Joint Developments & Ave. Rents
MTR Corporation’s Net Profit 2000-2012 Railwayandrelated operations 13% Propertydevelopments 34% 15% Total US$19.4b Stationcommercial 2000Ͳ12 business 38% Rentaland management businesses
Sources: Murakami & Cheung (2014); Cervero & Murakami (2009); Al, Stefan (2014); Suzuki et al. (2014)
Jin Murakami [email protected] March 21, 2014 @ Berkeley CA City University of Hong Kong
Acknowledgements:
Ms. Yurika Matsui, The University of Tokyo Prof. Hironori Kato, The University of Tokyo Mr. Weimin Lin, City University of Hong Kong References:
Cervero,Robert,andJinMurakami.“RailandPropertyDevelopmentinHongKong:Experiencesand Extensions.”UrbanStudies 46,no.10(August14,2009):2019–43.doi:10.1177/0042098009339431.
Lin,Weimin.TheLastMileCostsofIntercityTransportationServicesinHongKong࣯:ASpatialandCrossͲ IndustrialAnalysis.Dissertation.HongKongSAR,China:CityUniversityofHongKong,July2013. (Supervisor:Dr.JinMurakami)
Matsui,Yurika.ImpactofRailAccesstoInternationalAirport onEconomicProductivity:CaseStudies acrosstheWorldBusiestCitiesandtheTokyoMetropolitanArea.Thesis.Tokyo,Japan:TheUniversity ofTokyo,February2014.(Supervisor:Prof.HironoriKato)
MTRCorporation.AnnualReport2012:SharingOurGrowth.HongKong,2013. http://www.mtr.com.hk/eng/investrelation/2012frpt.htm.
Murakami,Jin,Weimin Lin,YiZhang,andLeoCheung.AirportAccessTransitandUrbanDevelopment: ASpatialAnalysisonLastͲMileCosts,ResidentialProfiles,andBusinessAgglomerationsinHongKong. HongKongSAR,China:CityUniversityofHongKong(Forthcomingin2014).
Suzuki,Hiroaki,JinMurakami,YuͲHungHong,andBethTamayose.FinancingTransitwithLandValues: AdaptingDevelopmentͲbasedLandValueCaptureinDevelopingCountries.TheWorldBank.Urban DevelopmentSeries.Washington,D.C.,(Forthcomingin2014).