Italian Morning Sight

10 June 2013

Equity Research +39 02 4344 - 4389 Institutional Sales - 5101 Relative Value - 4788 Equity Derivatives - 5451

Investment Research Stock Exchanges Events 7 Jun 13 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD Csp, Engineering, La Doria: ex-dividend date FTSE Italy All-Share 17,696 1.01 3.03 16,218 18,875 Fintel Energia Group: board of directors on results FTSE MIB 16,691 1.00 2.57 15,154 17,897 : board of directors FTSE Italy Star 12,576 0.93 14.97 11,110 13,027 Astm: ordinary and extraordinary shareholders’ Comit 906.3 -0.95 3.81 840.4 958.7 meeting Stoxx 600 295.40 1.27 5.62 283.73 310.59 Pop.Etruria: first day of rights issue EuroStoxx 50 2,724.1 1.79 3.34 2,553.5 2,835.9 Dow Jones Industrials 15,248 1.38 16.36 13,329 15,409 Nasdaq Comp 3,469 1.32 14.89 3,092 3,502 Macro Data Nikkei 225 12,878 -0.21 23.88 10,395 15,627 Istat: Industrial Production of April Other Market Indicators Istat: Q1 GDP sa and wda final data 7 Jun 13 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD

EUR/USD 1.322 0.20 0.28 1.278 1.370

USD/YEN 97.39 -1.01 12.63 86.84 103.51 London Brent Crude Oil Index U$/BBL 103.40 -0.21 -6.53 98.90 118.60 10 Yrs Bund Futures 143.39 -0.04 -1.54 141.43 147.16 Source: Datastream

Recommendation and target price changes No change

News Interpump (Accumulate) Positive outlook and growth strategy confirmed Finmeccanica (Accumulate) Five players may soon submit bids for Avio Space

Technical Analysis DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector

All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR”

Italian Morning Sight 10 June 2013

Interpump Italy/Industrial Engineering

Interpump (Accumulate)

Accumulate Positive outlook and growth strategy confirmed Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 6.70 The facts: in an article published today on La Repubblica, the management closing price as of 07/06/2013 confirmed the focus on: the widening of the commercial network through local Target price: EUR 7.80 subsidiaries in the new strategic markets, the further rationalisation of the group’s Target Price unchanged structure in order to increase efficiency and the strengthening of the M&A activity. Reuters/Bloomberg ITPG.MI/IP IM Furthermore, based on the current good visibility, they are confident that Market capitalisation (EURm) 729 Interpump will meet guidance announced in February: FY 13 sales at around EUR Current N° of shares (m) 109 540m and FY 13 EBITDA at around EUR 110m; this guidance does not include Free float 63% the last acquisition of Hydrocontrol. Our estimates are in line with this indication: Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,105,620 FY 13e sales at EUR 584m and FY 13e at EUR 114m, which factor in the last Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 732 acquisition. Price high 12 mth (EUR) 6.90 Price low 12 mth (EUR) 5.16 Conclusion & Action: we confirm our positive stance on the stock, so we Abs. perf. 1 mth -0.74% maintain our Accumulate recommendation and our target price of EUR 7.80 per Abs. perf. 3 mth 11.30% share (calculated based on our DCF model - WACC 8.25% and 1.5% of perpetual Abs. perf. 12 mth 7.46% growth rate).

Key financials (EUR) 12/12 12/13e 12/14e Sales (m) 527 584 604 EBITDA (m) 105 114 122 EBITDA margin 19.8% 19.5% 20.2% EBIT (m) 83 89 96 EBIT margin 15.7% 15.2% 15.9% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 52 52 57 ROCE 10.0% 9.6% 10.6% Net debt/(cash) (m) 75 92 44 Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.2 0.1 Debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.8 0.4 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 13.1 14.2 15.2 EV/Sales 1.3 1.4 1.3 EV/EBITDA 6.7 7.2 6.3 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 7.2 6.3 EV/EBIT 8.5 9.3 8.0 P/E (adj.) 14.3 16.4 15.0 P/BV 1.6 1.7 1.6 OpFCF yield 7.2% 3.0% 9.0% Dividend yield 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% EPS (adj.) 0.41 0.41 0.45 BVPS 3.59 3.94 4.29 DPS 0.17 0.18 0.19

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INTERPUMP Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased) Source: Factset Shareholders: IPG Holding 26%; Harris Associates LP 10%;

Analyst(s): Paola Saglietti, Banca Akros [email protected] +39 02 4344 4287

Banca 2 Akros

Italian Morning Sight 10 June 2013

Finmeccanica Italy/Aerospace & Defense

Finmeccanica (Accumulate)

Accumulate Five players may soon submit bids for Avio Space Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 4.09 The facts: Yesterday's "Il Sole 24Ore" wrote that Cinven and FNC would be close closing price as of 07/06/2013 to selling their stakes in Avio Space; at least five international groups would Target price: EUR 6.00 reportedly be ready to submit their preliminary bids by the end of June. The Target Price unchanged candidates would be: Thalès, EADS, Safran, one German player and one US Reuters/Bloomberg SIFI.MI/FNC IM player. Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,367 Our analysis: Avio Space would be valued around EUR 300/400m; Cinven owns Current N° of shares (m) 578 81% of the company, while FNC owns ~14% of it, the rest being in the hands of Free float 61% the management. We estimate that FNC should cash in EUR 42/56m from the Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 36,775,050 sale of its stake. Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 15,001 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 5.15 We remind investors that FNC already sold its 14% stake in Avio aeronautic with Price low 12 mth (EUR) 2.67 an expected cash in of ~EUR 260m; the conclusion of the disposal process should Abs. perf. 1 mth -2.01% be in Q3 2013. Abs. perf. 3 mth 10.29% Conclusion & Action: The news should have limited impact on FNC stock price Abs. perf. 12 mth 36.29% today even though 5 contenders represent a very good starting point for a Key financials (EUR) 12/12 12/13e 12/14e disposal process. Sales (m) 17,218 17,354 17,594 EBITDA (m) 1,439 1,433 1,829 EBITDA margin 8.4% 8.3% 10.4% EBIT (m) (457) 720 1,088 EBIT margin nm 4.1% 6.2% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 647 410 490 ROCE -1.5% 9.8% 11.0% Net debt/(cash) (m) 3,373 3,554 3,598 Net Debt/Equity 0.9 0.9 0.9 Debt/EBITDA 2.3 2.5 2.0 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.0 3.6 4.4 EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 EV/EBITDA 3.5 3.6 2.8 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 2.9 2.9 2.7 EV/EBIT nm 7.1 4.7 P/E (adj.) 3.9 5.8 4.8 P/BV 0.7 0.7 0.6 OpFCF yield 22.9% -3.9% 7.1% Dividend yield 0.0% 2.1% 5.1% EPS (adj.) 1.12 0.71 0.85 BVPS 5.88 6.14 6.70 DPS 0.00 0.09 0.21

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FINMECCANICA Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased) Source: Factset Shareholders: Italian Government 32%; Tradewinds GI 5%; Grantham Mayo van Otterloo 2%;

Analyst(s): Gabriele Gambarova, Banca Akros [email protected] +39 02 43 444 289

Banca 3 Akros

Italian Morning Sight 10 June 2013

Technical Analysis (daily ratings) 10/06/2013 ENI.MI MEDIOLANUM MED.MI Close 17.30 Close 5.21 Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp. 17.20-16.95-16.80-16.50 Supp. 5.00-4.80-4.65-4.50-4.30 Resist. 17.50-17.70-18.00-18.30 Resist. 5.30-5.50-5.70-6.00 Stop loss 16.95 Stop loss 5.00 Profit taking 18.30 Profit taking 5.70

KBC GROUP KBC.BR TOMTOM TOM2.AS Close 31.55 Close 3.95 Rating ADD Rating ADD Supp. 30.35-30.00-29.30-28.50 Supp. 3.85-3.75-3.60-3.50 Resist. 32.30-33.15-34.00-35.00 Resist. 4.00-4.10-4.18-4.25 Stop loss 30.35 Stop loss 3.85 Profit taking 34.00 Profit taking 4.25

Technical Analysis FTSE MIB (expiration June 2013) IFSc1 16.615 Supports: 16.500-16.350-16.200-16.000-15.800-15.500 Resistances: 16.650-16.800-17.000-17.200-17.350-17.500 RSI: N-POSITIVE STOCHASTICS: N-POSITIVE MACD:NEUTRAL Short Term Trend: NEUTRAL

DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector

(DJ Stoxx 07/06: 295.40 - chg 1.27%) Media -0.29 Telecom 0.48 Technology -0.45 Financial Services -0.80 Insurance 1.65 Banks 0.29 Utilities -0.50 Personal Goods -0.02 Food & Beverage 0.15 Healthcare -0.01 Industrial G&S -0.57 Construction & Materials -0.14 Oil & Gas -0.64 Travel & Leisure -0.43 Auto & Parts 0.95 Retail -0.74 Basic Resources -0.05 Chemical -0.04 -2% 0% 2%

Source: FactSet Cyclical Non-Cyclical Financial TMT

Banca 4 Akros

Italian Morning Sight 10 June 2013

Disclaimer

This research has been prepared by Andrea Devita, Marco Cavalleri, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who are financial analysts with Banca Akros SpA ("Banca Akros"), which is responsible for the preparation of the research. Banca Akros is a bank authorised to perform also investment services; it is part of the Bipiemme Banca Popolare di Milano Group (the “Group”) and it is duly subject to the management and co-ordination of Banca Popolare di Milano (the “Parent Company”). Banca Akros is registered with the Italian Banking Association code n. 5328 and is subject to the regulation and surveillance of Bank of Italy and Consob (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa)." Banca Akros has prepared this research for its professional clients only, pursuant to Directive 2004/39/CE and Annex 3 of Consob Regulation on intermediaries (Resolution n. 16190). This research is being distributed as of 10 June 2013. In compliance with arts. 69 “quater” and “quinquies” of Consob Regulations for Issuers (“notification to the public regarding interest and conflict of interest”) Banca Akros hereby declared that it has a personal interest in some of the companies examined in this research, specifically: 1) Anima Sgr, Fiera Milano, Premuda, Risanamento (in which Banca Akros’ parent group holds more than 2% or is a member of shareholders pacts). 2) Acotel, , Autostrada To-Mi (TAH market), Biesse (until 19 June 2012), Dmail (until 3 October 2012), Enervit, Falck Renewables, Gas Plus, I Grandi Viaggi, Imvest, QF Investietico, QF Mediolanum RE A, QF Mediolanum RE B, SIAS (TAH market), Zucchi Ord/Pref (for which the Bank is a specialist or liquidity provider). 3) Alerion Clean Power, Class Editori, Gabetti, Italcementi, RDB, Seat PG, Servizi Italia (dual administrator role in related parties). 4) Moleskine (Banca Akros was the placement bank and guarantor for the IPO organized in March 2013). 5) , (the Bank was a member of the consortium for the placement of the negotiable bonds organized in the last twelve months). 6) (the Bank was acting as lead Manager of the consortium for the placement of the non-negotiable bonds organized in May and June 2012). 7) FondiariaSai, (the Bank was acting as underwriter of the consortium for the capital increase organized in July 2012). 8) (dual administrator role in related parties; the Bank was a member of the consortium for the placement of the negotiable bonds organized in November 2012). 9) Cape Live, Prima Industrie (the Bank is acting as corporate advisor in communication to institutional investors). 10) RCS Mediagroup: (the Bank will be acting in the coming capital increase). Financial analysts Andrea Devita, Marco Cavalleri, Luigi Tramontana, Claudio Giacomiello, Paola Saglietti, Gabriele Gambarova, Dario Michi, Giada Cabrino (all members of AIAF), Francesco Previtera, Francesco Sala, Marcello Renna (ordinary member of SIAT), who prepared this research, have gained considerable experience with Banca Akros and other authorised brokerage houses. Said financial analysts do not receive a bonus, salary or any other form of remuneration, whether directly or indirectly, from any earnings in any investment banking operation. Said financial analysts and their families do not hold financial instruments issued by the companies under examination nor are they directors, managers or advisors of the companies. Pursuant to Consob rulings to implement art. 114, paragraph 8 of Italian Legislative Decree 58/98 (TUF) and specifically art. 69 “quinquies”, paragraph 2 of the Issuers Regulation, Banca Akros hereby informs its clients that additional information is available at its web site (http://www.bancaakros.it/media/6903/3-mktabuse-daf-sitointernet-conflitti-aggiornato.pdf). The information and opinions given in this research are based on sources believed to be reliable. Banca Akros has done its best to check the source of said information and that it has already been made public. However, notwithstanding the said controls Banca Akros does not guarantee nor shall it be held liable if the information supplied herein or used to prepare this research is found to be inaccurate, incomplete, untrue or incorrect. This research is for information purposes only. It shall not be regarded as a proposal for a contract, an offer to sell nor as a solicitation to buy and/or sell financial products nor, in general, to invest. Nor shall it be regarded as advice on investment opportunities. Banca Akros does not guarantee that any of the forecasts and/or estimates supplied in this research are attainable. Moreover, Banca Akros shall not be held liable for any consequences and/or damage that may derive from the use of this research and/or the information contained herein. All the information or opinions contained in this research are subject to change without notice, without detriment to any legal or regulatory requirements. Unless specifically authorised, this research may not be reproduced and/or circulated, whether wholly or in part, directly or indirectly.

Banca 5 Akros