View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE

provided by Archivio istituzionale della ricerca - Università di Padova

Università degli Studi di Padova

Padua Research Archive - Institutional Repository

SINFONIA Project Mass Appraisal: Beyond The Value Of Energy Performance In Buildings

Original Citation:

Availability: This version is available at: 11577/3188428 since: 2016-10-11T09:59:29Z

Publisher: Elsevier

Published version: DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.285

Terms of use: Open Access This article is made available under terms and conditions applicable to Open Access Guidelines, as described at http://www.unipd.it/download/file/fid/55401 (Italian only)

(Article begins on next page) Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44

QG,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXP1(:0(75232/,7$13(563(&7,9(66WUDWHJLFSODQQLQJ VSDWLDOSODQQLQJHFRQRPLFSURJUDPVDQGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROVWKURXJKWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI +RUL]RQ(XURSH,67+5HJJLR&DODEULD ,WDO\ 0D\ 6,1)21,$3URMHFW0DVV$SSUDLVDO%H\RQG7KH9DOXH2I(QHUJ\ 3HUIRUPDQFH,Q%XLOGLQJV

$GULDQR%LVHOORDE *LXOLDQR0DUHOODE*LDQOXFD*ULOOLF

aRenewable Energy Institute, European Academy of Bolzano, Viale Druso 1, Bolzano 39100, Italy bDepartment of civil, environmental and architectural engineering, University of Padua, Via Venezia 1, Padova 35100, Italy cDepartment of civil, environmental and mechanical engineering, University of Trento, Via Mesiano 77, Trento 38123, Italy

$EVWUDFW

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¶YDOXHGXHWRHQHUJ\UHWURILWPHDVXUHVXQGHUWDNHQ DW WKH GLVWULFW OHYHO 7KLV SDSHU VWDUWLQJ IURP SUHYLRXV VLPLODU H[SHULHQFHV GHVLJQV DQ RSHUDWLRQDO DSSURDFK EDVHG RQ VSDWLDO KHGRQLFSULFHPHWKRGDQGDQDO\WLFKLHUDUFK\SURFHVV)LQDOO\LWVXJJHVWVKRZWRGHYHORSDVSDWLDOL]HGPDVVDSSUDLVDOE\OLQNLQJ UHVXOWV ZLWK D JHRJUDSKLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHP 6XFK DSSURDFK ZLOO FRQWULEXWH WR DVVHVV WKH VRFLRHFRQRPLF LPSDFW RI 6,1)21,$SURMHFWDQGWRHYDOXDWHWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIIXUWKHUVPDUWFLW\LQLWLDWLYHV  ©‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI,67+ Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of ISTH2020

Keywords:VSDWLDOKHGRQLFSULFHDQDO\WLFKLHUDUFK\SURFHVVPDVVDSSUDLVDOHQHUJ\UHWURILWVPDUWFLW\



 &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ E-mail address:DGULDQRELVHOOR#HXUDFHGX

1877-0428 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of ISTH2020 doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.285 38 Adriano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44

,QWURGXFWLRQ

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¶$OSDRV 0DUHOOD$QWRQLXFFL0DUHOOD '¶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¶V SULFHV ,Q WKLV SDSHU D EULHI UHYLHZ RI VLPLODU H[SHULHQFHV LQ WKLV ILHOG LV SUHVHQWHG WRJHWKHU ZLWK DQ RSHUDWLRQDO DSSURDFK WDNLQJ DGYDQWDJHV ERWK IURP KHGRQLF SULFH PHWKRG DQG PXOWLFULWHULD DQDO\VLV SURSRVH WR LQYHVWLJDWHWZRFDVHVWXGLHV,QVLJKWVJDLQHGIURPWKLVPL[HGPHWKRGDUHWKHQOLQNHGWRVSDWLDOL]HGLQIRUPDWLRQRI XUEDQEXLOGLQJVWRFNWRSHUIRUPDPDVVDSSUDLVDODQGWRHVWLPDWHWKHRYHUDOOLQFUHDVHLQUHWURILWWHGEXLOGLQJVYDOXH

7KHWRROER[VSDWLDOKHGRQLFSULFHPHWKRGPXOWLFULWHULDDQDO\VLVDQGJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPV

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¶VVXUIDFHDQGSURYLGH UHOLDEOHUHVXOWVRQO\LIFRQVLGHUHGJRRGVDUHHQRXJKKRPRJHQHRXV7KHODWWHULQYHVWLJDWHPXOWLSOHYDULDEOHVDIIHFWLQJ WKH ILQDO UHDO HVWDWH YDOXH DQG DUH XVHIXO LQ FRQWH[WV ZKHUH JRRG¶V KHWHURJHQHLW\ LV SUHGRPLQDQW 2QH RI WKH Adriano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44 39

IXQGDPHQWDOSOXULSDUDPHWULFWHFKQLTXHLQWKH,WDOLDQUHDOHVWDWHDSSUDLVDOVFKRROLVWKHVRFDOOHG³punti di merito´ DSSURDFKGHYHORSHGE\)RUWHLQWKHµV )RUWH 'H5RVVL )RUWH¶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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³HQHUJ\ UHIXUELVKPHQW´ LV D VRFDOOHG ³PDFUR´ YDULDEOH ZKLFK FDQ EH IXUWKHU GHFRPSRVHG LQWR ³PLFUR´HOHPHQWVUHSUHVHQWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWYDOXHVDWWULEXWHGE\WKHPDUNHWWRGHWDLOHGEHQHILWVVWULFWO\UHODWHGWR VXFKLQWHUYHQWLRQV0RQHWDU\VDYLQJVEDVLFDOO\GXHWRGHFUHDVHLQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ .UDXVH %LWWHU DQG ORZHUPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWV hUJH9RUVDW]HWDO DUHWKHPRVWHYLGHQW1HYHUWKHOHVVLQDSUHOLPLQDU\DQGQRW H[KDXVWLYHOLVWRWKHUHOHPHQWVVKRXOGDOVREHPHQWLRQHGVXFKDV x WKH UHGXFWLRQ RI H[WHUQDO QRLVHV GXH WR EHWWHU DFRXVWLF LQVXODWLRQ '¶$OSDRV 0DUHOOD 5RVDWR  6WHOOLQ -DNREhUJH9RUVDW]HWDO  x DEHWWHUWKHUPDOLQGRRUFRPIRUWGXHWRWKHUPDOEULGJHVUHGXFWLRQ -DNRE  x WKH GHFUHDVH RI DLU SROOXWDQW HPLVVLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ 6R[ GXH WR D GHFUHDVH LQ HQHUJ\ QHHGV RU LPSURYHG HIILFLHQF\LQJHQHUDWRUVRUIXHOVKLIWLQJ :RQ.LPHWDO   40 Adriano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44

x WKHORZHUULVNRILQFXUULQJLQXQIRUHVHHQDGGLWLRQDOFRVWVGXHWRLQFUHDVLQHQHUJ\SULFHVRUHQDFWPHQWRI VWULQJHQWHQHUJ\UHJXODWLRQV .UDXVH %LWWHU  x WKHH[SUHVVLRQRIDQLQGLYLGXDOJUHHQVRFLDOVWDWXVGXHWRWKHDGRSWLRQRIUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHV 'DVWUXSHWDO  DVZHOODVDQHQKDQFHGFRUSRUDWHLPDJH (LFKKROW]HWDO.UDXVH %LWWHU  x WKHRSSRUWXQLW\WRUHDFKRQHRUPRUHRIWKHDERYHPHQWLRQHGFREHQHILWVFRQWLQXLQJWRVWD\LQDIDPLOLDUSODFH VDYLQJWKHWURXEOHRIFKDQJLQJGZHOOLQJDQGQHLJKERUKRRGDQGSUHVHUYLQJWKHVRFLDOFDSLWDO 2(&'  7KHVHPLFURYDULDEOHVFDQQRWEHPHDVXUHGDQGHVWLPDWHGZLWKWKH+3PHWKRGWKXVDPRUHVSHFLILFLQYHVWLJDWLRQ LVQHHGHGWRXQGHUVWDQGFRQVXPHUV¶DQGRZQHUV¶SULRULWLHVDQGYDOXHV)RUH[DPSOHVPXOWLSOHDVSHFWV PD\UHVXOW IURP JHQHUDWLQJ RZQ JUHHQ HOHFWULFLW\ WKH ³YDOXH´ RI DYRLGHG SXUFKDVH WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI DYRLGHG HPLVVLRQV DQG DOVR DQ µµH[LVWHQFH YDOXH¶¶ IRU ³households who derive pleasure from knowing that they are generating their own>JUHHQ@electricity” 'DVWUXSHWDOSJ . 

7DEOH+HGRQLFSULFHPRGHOVFRPSDULVRQ   0RGHO )XQFWLRQ 6DPSOHVL]H &DWHJRULHVRI FKDUDFWHULVWLFV &LW\GLPHQVLRQ 5HIHUHQFH6WXG\ WKRXVDQGVRILQK  6DPSOHLQKDELWDQWV 1RIFKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKRXVDQGVRIUHFRUGV  &KDUDFWHULVWLFVDPSOHV 2EMHFWRILQYHVWLJDWLRQ  /  =21(620,  3  6,1**$53$5.%$7+$0(685      +3 7  &21',7,216(/$%(/   /RJOLQHDU %RQLIDFL  3URSHUW\ 3  /RFDWLRQ /  7RWDO  (QHUJ\/DEHO &RSLHOOR  7HFKQRORJLFDO 7

 1  ',1&20$&6+37$&66&+

 $&635.  6  '+2867)/631050610%$7+    

  +6$*(')8(/   6HPLORJ VSDWLDOHUURU  6WUXFWXUDO 6  (  12[62  :RQ.LPHWDO /RFDO$LU4XDOLW\ 1HLJKERUKRRG 1  (QYLURQPHQWDO ( 7RWDO  6+3 6SDWLDOODJDQG

6  6RODU  ;  6TXDUHIHHW%HGURRPV%DWKV9LHZ  3RRO$FUHV2ZQHURFFXSLHG%XLOGLQJ\HDU     /RJ

  1  6\VWHPFRVW6\VWHPVL]H,QFHQWLYH  6RODU 6  2WKHUV ;  6RODUSDQHOV

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driano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44 41

FRPSDULVRQDSRRORIH[SHUWVLVDVNHGWRGHILQHVRPHNH\FULWHULDEXLOWXSRQPRUHVSHFLILFDWWULEXWHVDQGWRZHLJKW WKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFH SHUFHQWDJH RIHDFKDWWULEXWHZLWKLQWKHXQLWDU\YDOXHRIWKHRXWSXW H[SUHVVHGDV $Q $+3 KDV EHHQ DOVR DGRSWHG E\ '¶$OSDRV HW DO   WR SUHGLFW KRZ SXEOLF ZRUNV GHDOLQJ ZLWK HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQVLPSURYHPHQWVKRXOGUHVXOWLQWKHRYHUDOOEXLOGLQJVWRFNSULFHFKDQJH7KHDXWKRUVSHUIRUPHGDVRFDOOHG ³PDVVDSSUDLVDO´RQDVPDOOFRPPXQLW\KDYLQJDURXQGWZRWKRXVDQGEXLOGLQJV)LUVWWKH\VHWXSDGDWDEDVHZLWK EDVLF LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ DVVHWV DJH W\SRORJ\ GLPHQVLRQV DQG ORFDWLRQ  7KHQ WKH\ GHILQHG DQG FODVVLILHG WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFGHWHUPLQLQJWKHSULFHDVXVXDOO\GRQHLQDQ+3PRGHO)LQDOO\VXSSRUWHGE\DSDQHORIORFDOH[SHUWV WKH\ZHLJKWHGHDFKFKDUDFWHULVWLF%\GHILQLQJWKHYDOXHIXQFWLRQDQGKDYLQJIHZSULFHVRIH[LVWLQJWUDQVDFWLRQVRQ WKHPDUNHWDXWKRUVZHUHDEOHWRDVVHVVWKHH[SHFWHGSRVLWLYHLPSDFWJLYHQE\WKHLPSURYHPHQWRIH[WULQVLFORFDWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV$VDILQDOUHVXOWWKH\HVWLPDWHDLQFUHDVHRIWKHRYHUDOOEXLOGLQJVWRFNYDOXHDOWKRXJKQRGLUHFW LQWHUYHQWLRQRQEXLOGLQJVZDVGRQH6LPLODUO\H[SHUWVRSLQLRQHOLFLWDWLRQKDVDOVREHHQXVHGE\=XEDU\HYD7KLHO %DUERQH  0HUFLHU   WR LGHQWLI\ NH\ FULWHULD DQG WR ZHLJKW WKHLU UHOHYDQFH LQ HOHFWULF YHKLFOHV PDUNHW GHYHORSPHQW

$GRXEOHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFDVHVWXG\

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³.OLPD/DQG´ LHFOLPDWHIULHQGO\WHUULWRU\ DQGPRYLQJWRZDUGDORZFDUERQGHYHORSPHQW6XVWDLQDELOLW\LVVXHV URRWHG LQ WKH IDUPHU PRXQWDLQ VRFLHW\ DUH VLQFH GHFDGHV HPHUJLQJ LQ ORFDO GHYHORSPHQW SROLFLHV DQG SODQV ,Q SDUWLFXODUWKHORFDOLQWHUHVWWRZDUGVFOHDQHQHUJ\LVVXHVOHGWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIWKH&DVD&OLPDDJHQF\UHVSRQVLEOH WKHIRUWKHFHUWLILFDWLRQRIEXLOGLQJHQHUJ\SHUIRUPDQFHDQGWRWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKH³,QVWLWXWHIRU5HQHZDEOH (QHUJ\´ ZLWKLQ WKH DOUHDG\ H[LVWLQJ UHVHDUFK FHQWHU (85$& (85RSHDQ $&DGHP\ 7KH FLW\ LWVHOI KDV UHFHQWO\ MRLQHGWKH&RYHQDQWRI0DMRUDQGLVLQYROYHGLQWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH 6XVWDLQDEOH (QHUJ\ $FWLRQ 3ODQ FRQWULEXWHGE\(85$& ,QQVEUXFNLQWKH$XVWULDQSURYLQFHRI7\UROKDVLQKDELWDQWVRQVTNP ,QKVTNP 'HVSLWH GLIIHUHQWSRSXODWLRQGHQVLWLHVERWKFLWLHVDUHFRPSDUDEOHZLWKUHJDUGVWRWKHXUEDQVWUXFWXUHVDQGRIIHUHGVHUYLFHV XQLYHUVLW\UHVHDUFKFHQWHUVDQH[WHQGHGF\FOLQJSDWKQHWZRUNHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\DGYLFHVHUYLFHVHWF 6LPLODUO\ ERWK 3URYLQFHV DUH LQYROYHG LQ WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI D PXOWL\HDU FOLPDWHHQHUJ\ SODQ 7KH 7\UROHDQ (QHUJ\ 6WUDWHJ\LVPDLQO\EDVHGRQPHDVXUHVGHDOLQJZLWKHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\LPSURYHPHQWLQEXLOGLQJV¶VSDFHKHDWLQJ DQG FRROLQJ SURPRWLRQ RI FOHDQ HQHUJ\ SURGXFWLRQ IURP UHQHZDEOH VRXUFHV DQG HOHFWULFLW\ FRQVXPSWLRQ JURZWK VWRSSLQJ ,QQVEUXFN LV DOVR LPSOHPHQWLQJ WKH ³(QHUJ\ 0DVWHUSODQ´ GHYHORSHG E\ DOS6 D ORFDO UHVHDUFK DQG FRQVXOWLQJDJHQF\RSHUDWLQJLQWKHILHOGVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQW 7KHVHWZRFLWLHVVKDUHDKLVWRU\RIODVWLQJHFRQRPLFLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGHGXFDWLRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSV2QHRIWKHODWHVW DQG PRVW UHOHYDQW FRRSHUDWLRQ SURMHFW EHWZHHQ DERYHPHQWLRQHG PXQLFLSDOLWLHV VWDUWHG LQ PLG ZKHQ WKH\ MRLQWO\ ODXQFKHG D ILYH \HDUV VPDUW FLWLHV DQG FRPPXQLWLHV SURMHFW IXQGHG XQGHU WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ¶V 6HYHQWK 3URJUDPPHIRUUHVHDUFK )3  7KH)36,1)21,$SURMHFWZKRVHDFURQ\PVWDQGVIRU³6PDUW,1LWLDWLYHRIFLWLHV)XOO\F2PPLWWHGWRL1YHVW,Q $GYDQFHG ODUJHVFDOHG HQHUJ\ VROXWLRQV´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driano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44

FREHQHILWVDWWKHXUEDQOHYHODQGRQHRIWKHKLJKOLJKWHGFREHQHILWVSUREDEO\LQFRUSRUDWLQJVRPHRWKHUVLVWKXVWKH LQFUHDVHLQUHIXUELVKHGGZHOOLQJVYDOXH %LVHOOR*ULOOL%DOHVW6WHOOLQ &LROOL  :LWKLQ WKLV SURMHFW HQHUJ\ UHIXUELVKPHQW DFWLYLWLHV RQ VRFLDO KRXVH EXLOGLQJV DUH IRUHVHHQ LQ ERWK FLWLHV 7KH SURMHFW DOVR FRQFHUQV DQ LPSURYHPHQW RQ WKH ORFDO'LVWULFW +HDWLQJ DQG &RROLQJQHWZRUNV '+&  LQWHJUDWLRQRI SKRWRYROWDLF 39  SDQHOV DQG VRODU WKHUPDO 67  SDQHOV LQ EXLOGLQJV IDoDGHV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI LQQRYDWLYH DQG HIILFLHQW +HDWLQJ 9HQWLODWLRQ DQG $LU &RQGLWLRQLQJ +9$&  V\VWHPV $V D SURMHFW DFWLYLW\ DOVR D *HRJUDSKLF ,QIRUPDWLRQ6\VWHP *,6 KDVEHHQVHWXSZKHUHEXLOGLQJVDUHVSDWLDOO\JHRUHIHUHQFHGDQGUHODWHGZLWKDGDWDEDVH KDYLQJUHOHYDQWLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVDJHGLPHQVLRQVDQGYROXPHLQWHQGHGXVHDQGHVWLPDWHGHQHUJ\SHUIRUPDQFH

7KHPL[HGLQYHVWLJDWLRQPRGHO

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³PDFURYDULDEOH´7KHQWKH LY GHILQLWLRQRIWKH ³PLFURYDULDEOHV´FRQWULEXWLQJWRWKH³PDFURYDULDEOH´ Y VHWWLQJXSRIWKH$+3PRGHO YL GDWDFROOHFWLRQWKURXJK GLUHFWVXUYH\V YLL ³PLFURYDULDEOHV´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³PLFURYDULDEOHV´HPEHGGHGLQWKHHQHUJ\UHIXUELVKPHQWRIGZHOOLQJVDUHOLVWHGDQGGHILQHGWKXV EHFRPLQJWKHVSHFLILFDWWULEXWHVRINH\FULWHULD$FFRUGLQJWRJHQHUDOUXOHVRI$+3WKHQXPEHURIHOHPHQWVLQWKH PDWUL[IRUSDLUZLVHFRPSDULVRQVKRXOGQRWH[FHHGVHYHQ 6DDW\  ,QVHWWLQJXSWKH$+3PRGHO Y WKHPRVWUHOHYDQWFULWHULDWREHLQFOXGHGLQWKHGHILQLWLRQRIWKH$+3GHFLVLRQ WUHHZLOOEHGHILQHGVWDUWLQJIURPUHVXOWSURYLGHGE\WKH6+3LQ LY 0RUHRYHUUHVXOWVJDLQHGE\VWDNHKROGHUV¶IRFXV JURXSVRUJDQL]HGZLWKLQWKHSURMHFWDVVHVVLQJWKHORFDONQRZOHGJH DQG SHUFHSWLRQ DERXW FREHQHILWV FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG 7KHPRGHOLVWKHQFDOLEUDWHGLQFRRSHUDWLRQZLWKDSDQHORIORFDOH[SHUWV YL 5HDOHVWDWHDJHQWVVRFLDOKRXVLQJ PDQDJHUVDQGSURIHVVLRQDOVHPSOR\HGLQDJHQFLHVIRUHQHUJ\SHUIRUPDQFHFHUWLILFDWLRQDUHDVNHGWRYDOLGDWHPRGHO Adriano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44 43

DVVXPSWLRQVDQGWRDWWULEXWHZHLJKWVWRWKHGLIIHUHQW³PLFURYDULDEOHV´$FFRUGLQJWRRWKHUH[SHULHQFHVWKHH[SHUWV QXPEHUVKRXOGUDQJHEHWZHHQDQGDQGDVHPLVWUXFWXUHGVXUYH\LVQHHGHG %\ LQWHJUDWLQJ ILQGLQJV IURP VSHFLDOL]HG OLWHUDWXUH DQG H[SHUWV¶ RSLQLRQ LQWR WKH $+3 PRGHO WKH ³PLFUR YDULDEOHV´ DUH ZHLJKWHG YLL  ,QGHHG WKH PDUJLQDO LPSOLFLW SULFHRIHQHUJ\UHIXUELVKPHQWRIROGDQGORZ SHUIRUPDQFH GZHOOLQJV LV GHFRPSRVHG LQ D SRRO RI PXOWLSOH EHQHILWV EHORQJLQJ WR GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI KHDOWK HQYLURQPHQWZHOOEHLQJDQGHFRQRP\ 7KH ODVW VWHS YLLL  OLQNV WKH UHVXOWV RI 6+3 DQG $+3 ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH WKURXJK WKH *,6 DOUHDG\ GHYHORSHG E\ WKH SURMHFW DQG WKXV OHDGV WR D PDVV DSSUDLVDO %\ LVRODWLQJ KRXVHV DQG GZHOOLQJ IURP WKH ZKROH H[LVWLQJEXLOGLQJVWRFNDQGNQRZLQJWKHUHIHUHQFHHQHUJ\QHHGVLVSRVVLEOHWRHVWLPDWHWKHH[SHFWHGSRVLWLYHLPSDFW RQ WKHLU YDOXH SULFH  JLYHQ E\ WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI WHFKQRORJLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG WKH LQFUHDVH RI WKH HQHUJ\ SHUIRUPDQFH E\RQHRUPRUHFODVVHV 

'LVFXVVLRQDQGFRQFOXVLRQV

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z  'HOOD 6SLQD   ,Q SDUWLFXODU  WKH GHFLVLRQ WR SURPRWH  D ODUJHVFDOH HQHUJ\ UHWURILWFDPSDLJQVKRXOGUHVXOWLQ³good performance of a whole city, in terms of both buildings energy efficiency as well as real estate market efficiency´ %RQLIDFL &RSLHOORSJ $VVHWPDQDJHUVRIFRPPHUFLDOEXLOGLQJV DOVR FRQVLGHU WKDW ³if tenants would prefer sustainable buildings, then sustainable buildings could have longer economic lives than conventional buildings´ (LFKKROW]HWDOSJ  0RUHRYHUIDo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¶$OSDRVHWDO DQGSROLFLHV :RQ.LPHWDO FRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV

7KHUHVHDUFKOHDGLQJWRWKHVHUHVXOWVKDVUHFHLYHGIXQGLQJIURPWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ¶V6HYHQWK3URJUDPPHIRU UHVHDUFKWHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWDQGGHPRQVWUDWLRQXQGHUJUDQWDJUHHPHQW1R7KH(XURSHDQ8QLRQLV QRWOLDEOHIRUDQ\XVHWKDWPD\EHPDGHRIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQFRQWDLQHGLQWKLVGRFXPHQWZKLFKLVPHUHO\UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKHDXWKRUVYLHZ $XWKRUFRQWULEXWLRQV$%LVHOORGHVLJQHGWKHUHVHDUFKKHOGWKHOLWHUDWXUHUHYLHZDQGZURWHWKHSDSHU$%LVHOOR *0DUHOODDQG**ULOOLGHYHORSHGWKHPRGHODQG*0DUHOODDQG**ULOOLUHYLVHGWKHSDSHU 0DQ\WKDQNVWR*:+XQWHUIRU(QJOLVKSURRIUHDGLQJDQGXVHIXOFRPPHQWV

 44 Adriano Bisello et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 37 – 44

5HIHUHQFHV

$FUH) :\FNPDQV$  'ZHOOLQJUHQRYDWLRQDQGVSDWLDOTXDOLW\International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment4  ± $HOHQHL/$HOHQHL'*RQoDOYHV+/ROOLQL50XVDOO(6FRJQDPLJOLR$«1RJXFKL0  'HVLJQLVVXHVIRUQHW]HURHQHUJ\ EXLOGLQJVOpen House International38  ± $QVHOLQ/  Spatial econometrics: methods and models'RUGUHFKW.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV $QWRQLXFFL9'¶$OSDRV& 0DUHOOD*  +RZ5HJXODWLRQ$IIHFWV(QHUJ\6DYLQJ6PDUW*ULG,QQRYDWLRQLQ7DOO%XLOGLQJV,Q2 *HUYDVL%0XUJDQWH60LVUD0/*DYULORYD$0$&5RFKD&7RUUH«%2$SGXKDQ (GV Computational Science and Its Applications -- ICCSA 2015 9ROSS± &KDP6SULQJHU,QWHUQDWLRQDO3XEOLVKLQJ $QWRQLXFFL90DUHOOD* '¶$OSDRV&  (QHUJ\VDYLQJLQWDOOEXLOGLQJVIURPXUEDQSODQQLQJUHJXODWLRQWRVPDUWJULGEXLOGLQJ VROXWLRQVInternational Journal for Housing Science and Its Applications39  ± %LVHOOR$*ULOOL*%DOHVW-6WHOOLQ* &LROOL0  &REHQHILWVRI6PDUWDQG6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\'LVWULFW3URMHFWVௗDQRYHUYLHZRQ HFRQRPLFDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJLHV,QSmart and Sustainable Planning for Cities and Regions. Results of SSPCR 2015 LQSUHVV  6SULQJHU,QWHUQDWLRQDO3XEOLVKLQJ %RQLIDFL3 &RSLHOOR6  3ULFHSUHPLXPIRUEXLOGLQJVHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\HPSLULFDOILQGLQJVIURPDKHGRQLFPRGHOValori E Valutazioni  ± &DODEUz) 'HOOD6SLQD/  ,QQRYDWLYH7RROVIRUWKH(IIHFWLYHQHVVDQG(IILFLHQF\RI$GPLQLVWUDWLYH$FWLRQRIWKH0HWURSROLWDQ&LWLHV 7KH6WUDWHJLF2SHUDWLRQDO3URJUDPPHAdvanced Engineering Forum11± &KLDQJ&0 /DL&0  $VWXG\RQWKHFRPSUHKHQVLYHLQGLFDWRURILQGRRUHQYLURQPHQWDVVHVVPHQWIRURFFXSDQWV¶KHDOWKLQ7DLZDQ Building and Environment37  ± '¶$OSDRV&0DUHOOD*5RVDWR3 6WHOOLQ*  /DYDOXWD]LRQHH[DQWHGHJOLHIIHWWLVXOYDORUHLPPRELOLDUHGLLQWHUYHQWLGL VDOYDJXDUGLDDPELHQWDOHQHOO¶LVRODGL6DQW (UDVPRQHOODODJXQDGL9HQH]LDXQDSSURFFLRJHUDUFKLFR,Q3*DLR 66WDQJKHOOLQL (GV  La valutazione degli investimenti sul territorio. Atti del XXXII Incontro di Studio.9HQH]LD&H6(7 'DVWUXS65*UDII=LYLQ-&RVWD'/ .DKQ0(  8QGHUVWDQGLQJWKH6RODU+RPHSULFHSUHPLXP(OHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQDQG ³*UHHQ´VRFLDOVWDWXVEuropean Economic Review56  ± (LFKKROW]3.RN1 4XLJOH\-0  'RLQJ:HOOE\'RLQJ*RRGௗ"*UHHQ2IILFH%XLOGLQJVAmerican Economics Review 100 'HFHPEHU ± (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  Energy solutions for smart cities and communities - Lessons learnt from the 58 pilot cities of the CONCERTO initiative )RUWH& 'H5RVVL%  Principi di economia ed estimo0LODQR(WDV/LEUL -DNRE0  0DUJLQDOFRVWVDQGFREHQHILWVRIHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\LQYHVWPHQWVEnergy Policy34  ± .UDXVH$/ %LWWHU&  6SDWLDOHFRQRPHWULFVODQGYDOXHVDQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\7UHQGVLQUHDOHVWDWHYDOXDWLRQUHVHDUFKCities296± 6 /DQFDVWHU.-  $1HZ$SSURDFKWR&RQVXPHU7KHRU\7KH-RXUQDORI3ROLWLFDO(FRQRP\  ± 0RVDQQHQ]DGHK)3H]]XWWR6%LVHOOR$'LDPDQWLQR&9HWWRUDWR' 6WHOOLQ*  6PDUW(QHUJ\&LWLHVDGHFLVLRQVXSSRUW PHWKRGRORJ\WRRYHUFRPHEDUULHUVIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVPDUWDQGVXVWDLQDEOHHQHUJ\VROXWLRQVLQXUEDQDUHDVManuscript Vubmitted for pubblication 2(&'  The Well-being of Nations. The role of human and social capital3DULV2(&'3XEOLVKLQJ 2UHILFH0  Estimo7RULQR87(7 3RKHNDU6' 5DPDFKDQGUDQ0  $SSOLFDWLRQRIPXOWLFULWHULDGHFLVLRQPDNLQJWRVXVWDLQDEOHHQHUJ\SODQQLQJ$UHYLHZRenewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews8  ± 3UHYDO1&KDSPDQ53LHUVH1 +RZGHQ&KDSPDQ3  (YDOXDWLQJHQHUJ\KHDOWKDQGFDUERQFREHQHILWVIURPLPSURYHGGRPHVWLF VSDFHKHDWLQJ$UDQGRPLVHGFRPPXQLW\WULDOEnergy Policy38  ± 5RVHQ6  +HGRQLF3ULFHVDQG,PSOLFLW0DUNHWV3URGXFW'LIIHUHQWLDWLRQLQ3XUH&RPSHWLWLRQThe Journal of Political Economy82   ± 6DDW\7  The Analytic Hierarchy Process1HZManagement45  ± =XEDU\HYD$7KLHO&%DUERQH( 0HUFLHU$  $VVHVVLQJIDFWRUVIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRISRWHQWLDOOHDGPDUNHWVIRUHOHFWULILHG YHKLFOHVLQ(XURSHH[SHUWRSLQLRQHOLFLWDWLRQTechnological Forecasting and Social Change79  ±