BRIEFING 11:00 PM CDT Wednesday August 26th Prepared by: Lance Wood, WFO Houston/Galveston

Category 4 Laura is nearing the southwest coast

@NWSHouston www.weather.gov/Houston Current Radar Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ Laura remains a high end Category 4 hurricane

▪ soon in Cameron Parish along the SW for the eyewall winds Louisiana coast.

▪ Extremely dangerous, deadly flooding (NHC using term unsurvivable) is expected near and right of landfall location. Very dangerous, damaging winds also near the center path and extending well inland.

▪ SE is on the western fringe of the storm. Main impacts will be tropical storm force winds, possibly gusts to hurricane force eastern zones as well as minor to locally moderate , high surf

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Situation Overview Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ Max sustained winds currently 150 mph.

▪ No changes to the track forecast will move north inland near the Texas/Louisiana state line tonight and tomorrow.

▪ Impacts felt well outside the cone, especially on the right hand side.

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Wind Related Warnings Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Far western Tropical Storm Warnings canceled for Madison, Grimes, Waller and Fort Bend counties.

Hurricane Warning shown in red

Tropical shown in darker red.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Storm Surge Watch/Warning Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ (No Change). ▪ Storm surge warning shown. Extends from Sargent TX up the coast.

▪ Danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge somewhere in the warned area.

▪ Coastal Advisory for Matagorda and around Matagorda Bay.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Watch Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ (No Change).

▪ to the east of the forecast area.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston 34kt and 50kt Wind Speed Point Probabilities Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Storm Surge Flooding Forecast Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

No Changes

▪ General view of storm surge expected from Laura for different stretches of coastline.

▪ Very dangerous life-threatening surge expected near and right of hurricane track.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Potential Storm Surge Flooding Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ Reasonable worst case depth of water above ground for storm surge flooding, inundation from Laura.

▪ Seeing some inundation tonight across low-lying coastal areas.

▪ Highest water levels around time of high tide later tonight across most spots, Thursday morning along north facing shorelines (bay sides of barrier islands) Note: This graphic shows where storm surge inundation could occur in any one location. It depicts a reasonable worst case scenario.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Galveston Bay Entrance Gauge

On Gulf facing beaches, tides currently running about 3 feet above normal. Next high tide peaking soon. Expecting 3 to 4 feet above MHHW. Translates to 5 to 6 feet above MLLW.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Laura.html

Forecast tide levels from Extratropical Surge Model

Top chart relative to mean higher high water (NWS standard) Eagle Point Near San Leon

Around Galveston Bay, tides currently running about 2.5 feet above normal. Levels not dropping going during the evening low tide. Next high tide later tonight will be the highest, about 3 to 3.5 feet above MHHW

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Laura.html Expected Storm Total Rainfall Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts

▪ Storm Total rainfall forecast valid through Saturday

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Potential Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Tornado Watch until 8 AM outlined in red just east of Houston and Galveston

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston Key Take-Aways Houston/Galveston Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

• Deadly storm surge expected near and east of the track, mainly from Sea Rim State Park eastward. Extremely dangerous winds as well near the enter track. For SE Texas main impacts will be TS force winds, some hurricane force still possible eastern zones. • There will be high surf and tides left of the track due to the waves, swell, high surf coming in from Laura. • Flash flood threat mainly east of the area, closer to the track of the hurricane. • Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect for parts of the area. Some additional paring back of warnings across our area as Laura progresses inland may occur early Thursday.

Confidence is high that a major hurricane will strike far East TX and Western LA. Deadly storm surge and winds in those areas. For Southeast Texas, TS-force winds and high surf, tides. Hurricane force winds (especially gusts) still possible eastern zones.

8/26/2020 11:26 AM www.weather.gov/Houston The Next Advisory: Thursday at 4 AM CDT.

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For the latest graphics and information go to: www.hurricanes.gov or

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