FEBRUARY 2012 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA: Adaptive Capacity in the Regional Context STUDENT WORKING PAPER NO. 4 By Emily Joiner, Derell Kennedo, and Jesse Sampson Edited by Dr. Joshua W. Busby, Kaiba L. White, and Todd G. Smith ABOUT THE CCAPS PROGRAM This paper is produced as part of the Strauss Center’s program on Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS). The program conducts research in three core areas, seeking to investigate where and how climate change poses threats to stability in Africa, identify strategies to support accountable and effective governance in Africa, and evaluate the effectiveness of international aid to help African societies adapt to climate change. The CCAPS program is a collaborative research program among the University of Texas at Austin, the College of William and Mary, Trinity College Dublin, and the University of North Texas. The CCAPS program is funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Minerva Initiative, a university- based, social science research program focused on areas of strategic importance to national security policy. Through quantitative analysis, GIS mapping, case studies, and field interviews, the program seeks to produce research that provides practical guidance for policy makers and enriches the body of scholarly literature in this field. The CCAPS team seeks to engage Africa policy communities in the United States, Africa, and elsewhere as a critical part of its research. ABOUT THE STRAUSS CENTER The Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at The University of Texas at Austin is a nonpartisan research center that engages the best minds in academia, government, and the private sector to develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Emily Joiner, Derell Kennedo, and Jesse Sampson wrote this paper as Master of Global Policy Studies students at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. This graduate student work is based on collaboration with CCAPS researchers as part of a year-long Policy Research Project course on climate change and security in Africa at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. The course was led by Dr. Joshua Busby in the 2009-10 academic year. Authors are listed in alphabetical order. ABOUT THE EDITORS Dr. Joshua W. Busby is an Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. Kaiba L. White is a Research Associate on the CCAPS program at the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law. Todd G. Smith is a PhD student at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and a Research Assistant on the CCAPS program. Photo credit: Anustubh Agnihotri TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 INTRODUCTION 5 PART 1: THE WEST AFRICAN CONTEXT 6 PART 2: CONTRIBUTIONS OF MINERAL DEPENDENCE, 10 ETHNO-RELIGIOUS DIVERSITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY Mineral Resource Dependence and Governance 10 Ethnic Polarization, Religious Diversity, and Governance 12 PART 3: METHODOLOGY 14 PART 4: FINDINGS 18 Governance Vulnerability Scores 18 Composite Vulnerability: West African Model 19 Locating Oil and Mineral Extraction Sites 19 Locating Marginalized Ethnic Groups 21 Cluster Analysis 22 PART 5: CASE STUDY ANALYSIS: NIGERIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU 23 Nigeria: Ethnic Violence, Resource Conflict, and Vulnerability 23 Guinea Bissau: Poverty, Subsistence Agriculture, and Vulnerability 29 PART 6: CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 31 APPENDICES Appendix A. Oil and Mineral Dependence 32 Appendix B. Ethnic Polarization and Religious Diversity 34 Appendix C. Oil and Mineral Dependence in West Africa 36 Appendix D. Ethnic Polarization in West Africa 36 Appendix E. Relative Religious Diversity in West Africa 37 Appendix F. Household Vulnerability 37 Appendix G. Climate-Related Hazard Exposure 38 Appendix H. Population Density 38 Appendix I. Marginalized Ethnic Groups and Population Density in West Africa 39 Appendix J. Marginalized Ethnic Groups and Atrocities in West Africa 39 Appendix K. Nigeria Demographic Statistics 40 FIGURES FIGURE 1. West Africa 7 FIGURE 2. Religious Diversity West Africa 7 FIGURE 3. Lootable Resources 8 FIGURE 4. West African Ecosystems 10 FIGURE 5. Governance Vulnerability 18 FIGURE 6. Composite Vulnerability in West Africa 19 FIGURE 7. Oil Fields and Climate Related Exposure 20 FIGURE 8. Marginalized Ethnic Groups and Governance in West Africa 21 FIGURE 9. Marginalized Ethnic Groups and Disaster Exposure in West Africa 22 FIGURE 10. Hot Spot Analysis 23 FIGURE 11. Climate Related Hazard Exposure: Gulf of Guinea 24 FIGURE 12. Household Vulnerability: Nigeria 25 FIGURE 13. Sharia Law in Nigeria 26 FIGURE 14. Hot Spot Analysis: Nigeria 28 FIGURE 15. Low Coastal Elevation: Guinea Bissau 29 TABLES TABLE 1. Composite Vulnerability Components 15 TABLE 2. Ethnic Polarization and Religious Diversity by Country 17 4 | FEBRUARY 2012 STUDENT WORKING PAPER NO. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Predicting the future impacts of climate change is a diffi cult business. Even determining the future physical effects is fraught because of the complexity of the Earth’s climate system and the imperfections of current climate models. In addition, while some places may have less physical exposure to climate change risk than others, their lack of resources for adaptation projects or other factors such as a history of ethnic confl ict may render them more vulnerable. Vulnerability has two components, then: physical exposure and adaptive capacity. It is commonplace in the discourse on global climate change to say that Africa will be the most vulnerable location worldwide, because of poverty, environmental degradation, and confl ict. However, Africa is a large and diverse continent. To make meaningful contributions to the policy debate on Africa it is insuffi cient to say, “Africa will be vulnerable to climate change;” researchers must determine which areas in Africa will be vulnerable and for what reasons. This paper builds on the climate change vulnerability mapping work of the Robert S. Strauss Center on International Security and Law’s Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program. The CCAPS program takes data on climate-related hazard exposure, population density, and the adaptive capacity of governments and households, and uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to identify the areas of highest composite vulnerability. This paper applies the CCAPS methodology to West Africa to investigate vulnerability at the sub-regional level rather than the continental level. Since West Africa has unique climate characteristics and historical climate data for the region are limited, global climate models do not capture regional weather patterns effectively. For this reason, this paper’s primary addition to the model is in the area of adaptive capacity. This paper expands on the CCAPS vulnerability index by incorporating new data related to the political economy of governments as it may relate to their willingness and ability to adapt to climate change. Specifi cally, it adds dependence on oil and mineral extraction and ethnic and religious diversity to measures of governance. These variables have a unique role in the political dynamics of the West Africa region. Moreover, the negative effect they have on governance takes place independent of changes in leadership or political structure, making them superior forecasters of governance quality. We further expand on the CCAPS program by exploring different mapping techniques such as difference mapping and cluster analysis. The paper concludes with two country case studies on Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau, which both consistently rank among the most vulnerable places according to our vulnerability index. With the addition of our new oil and mineral dependency and ethno-religious diversity variables, two countries appear more vulnerable than in previous estimations: Nigeria (particularly northern Nigeria) and Côte d’Ivoire. Meanwhile, cluster analysis indicates that the highest concentration of vulnerability is located along the West African coast in areas with high ethnic and religious diversity. Incidentally, these countries also share a history of civil and ethnic confl icts. These areas include Nigeria’s Niger Delta, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea-Bissau. Policy and research implications of this analysis include: • Supporting research into better metrics for governance and adaptive capacity. • Illustrating a need to improve the granularity of climate models. • Considering the role of governance in adaptive capacity when crafting policies to respond to climate change in Africa. • Focusing data collection and monitoring efforts on the most vulnerable areas, defi ned as areas with persistently high vulnerability scores across a variety of vulnerability index constructions. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA: 5 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY IN THE REGIONAL CONTEXT INTRODUCTION In June 2009, unusually heavy seasonal rains began to fall in West Africa. By September, 16 countries faced widespread fl oods and at least 600,000 people had lost food, homes, or livestock due to the continuing rains. Hospitals, roads, dams, and schools were destroyed by fl oodwaters as the Volta, Senegal, and Niger rivers overfl owed their banks. Senegal, Sierra Leone, Ghana, and Benin were among the countries most affected; however, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) estimated that the fl oods in Burkina Faso were the worst experienced in that country in 90 years. In Ouagadougou, the Burkinabi capital city, at least 150,000 people were affected. The United