Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty? Luc Arrondel* and Richard Duhautois** Abstract – The idea that competitive balance increases the utility of fans, and therefore their spending and the revenue of professional clubs, lies at the heart of sports economics in general and the economics of football in particular. This notion of competitive balance is often invoked to explain the decisions of professional leagues to change the rules of competitions or the dis‑ tribution of TV rights. However, the empirical literature shows that the relationship between competitive balance and fan demand is far from obvious. In this paper, we examine the idea of competitive balance as perceived by football fans. In the case of Ligue 1, it is mainly explained by medium‑ and long‑term uncertainty, while in the case of the Champions League it is more a matter of long‑term suspense. But uncertainty over the outcome is far from being the only factor explaining the demand for football since around 30% of fans report that they would always be willing to attend or watch games even in the hypothetical case that there is no suspense left. JEL Classification: D12, L83 Keywords: competitive balance, uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, demand for football * CNRS, PSE (
[email protected]) ; ** CNAM (
[email protected]) The authors are particularly grateful to Jean Le Bail of the sports newspaper L’Équipe, without whom the survey used in this paper would not have been possible. The comments of two anonymous reviewers were particularly helpful. The opinions and analyses in this article are those of the author(s) do not Received on 22 July 2018, accepted after revisions on 12 July 2019.