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RESEARCH QUARTERLY Second Quarter 2017

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RESEARCH QUARTERLY Second Quarter 2017 RESEARCH QUARTERLY Second Quarter 2017 RESEARCH REPORT RESEARCH QUARTERLY RESEARCH REPORT | 2Q | 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................. i Capital Markets Overview ................................................................................................................... 2 Municipal Bond Market ....................................................................................................................... 3 Treasury Market .................................................................................................................................... 4 Federal Agency Debt Market .............................................................................................................. 6 Funding and Money Market Instruments ......................................................................................... 7 Mortgage-Related Securities ................................................................................................................ 8 Asset-Backed Securities........................................................................................................................ 9 U.S. Collateralized Loan Obligations ............................................................................................... 10 Corporate Bond Market ..................................................................................................................... 12 Equity and Other Markets ................................................................................................................. 14 Global OTC Derivatives .................................................................................................................... 17 The report is subject to the Terms of Use applicable to SIFMA's website, available here: http://www.sifma.org/legal/ SIFMA is the voice of the U.S. securities industry. We represent the broker-dealers, banks and asset managers whose nearly 1 million employees provide access to the capital mar- kets, raising over $2.5 trillion for businesses and municipalities in the U.S., serving clients with over $18.5 trillion in assets and managing more than $67 trillion in assets for indi- vidual and institutional clients including mutual funds and retirement plans. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org. i RESEARCH QUARTERLY RESEARCH REPORT | 2Q | 2017 CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW Issuance in U.S. Capital Markets Total Capital Markets Issuance 2Q'16 vs. 2Q'17 700 $ Billions Long-term securities issuance totaled $1.73 trillion in 2Q’17, a 9.8 percent de- Q2 2016 crease from $1.92 trillion in 1Q’17 and a 12.8 percent decrease year-over-year (y- 600 Q2 2017 o-y) from $1.98 trillion. Issuance decreased quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q) across 500 all asset classes but municipal, agency and asset-backed securities; y-o-y, growth 400 was negative in all asset classes except asset-backed securities and equity under- 300 writing. 200 Long-term public municipal issuance volume including private placements for 100 2Q’17 was $105.1 billion, up 15.4 percent from $91.2 billion in 1Q’17 but down 16.2 percent from 2Q’16. 0 Muni cipal Treasury Mortgage-Rel ated Corporate Agency Asset Backed Equity Note: Includes long-term issuance only The U.S. Treasury issued $570.8 billion in coupons, FRNs and TIPS in 2Q’17, Source: Thomson Reuters, U.S. Treasury, U.S. Federal Agencies Issuance Highlights - Year-Over-Year(1) down 12.7 percent from $654.1 billion in the prior quarter and 3.5 percent below $ Billions 2017:Q2 2016:Q2 % Change $591.6 billion issued in 2Q’16. Municipal 105.1 125.6 -16.4% Treasury 570.8 591.6 -3.5% Issuance of mortgage-related securities, including agency and non-agency Mortgage-Related 364.4 445.5 -18.2% Corporate 390.7 437.5 -10.7% passthroughs and collateralized mortgage obligations, totaled $364.4 billion in Federal Agency 164.4 258.0 -36.3% the second quarter, a 10.4 percent decline from 1Q’17 ($406.8 billion) and an Asset-Backed 81.5 72.7 12.1% Equity 51.7 51.4 0.6% 18.2 percent decrease y-o-y ($445.5 billion). Issuance Highlights - Quarter-Over-Quarter(1) Corporate bond issuance totaled $390.7 billion in 2Q’17, down 18.2 percent $ Billions 2017:Q2 2017:Q1 % Change from $477.4 billion issued in 1Q’17 and down 10.7 percent from 2Q’16’s issu- Municipal 105.1 91.2 15.2% Treasury 570.8 654.1 -12.7% ance of $437.5 billion. Of 2Q’17 corporate bond issuance, investment grade Mortgage-Related 364.4 406.8 -10.4% issuance was $325.6 billion (83.3 percent of total) while high yield issuance was Corporate 390.7 477.4 -18.2% $65.1 billion (16.7 percent). Federal Agency 164.4 151.2 8.7% Asset-Backed 81.5 76.4 6.6% Equity 51.7 59.2 -12.7% Long-term federal agency debt issuance was $164.4 billion in the second quarter, (1) Includes long-term issuance only an 8.7% percent increase from $151.2 billion in 1Q’17 and a 36.3 percent de- crease from $258.0 billion issued in 2Q’16. Asset-backed securities issuance totaled $81.5 billion in the second quarter, an increase of 6.6 percent q-o-q and a 12.1 percent increase y-o-y. Equity underwriting decreased by 12.7 percent to $51.7 billion in the second quarter from $59.2 billion in 1Q’17 and up 0.6 percent from $51.4 billion issued in 2Q’16. Of the total, “true” initial public accounted for $8.6 billion, down 19.8 percent from $10.8 billion in 1Q’17 and up 41.3 percent from $6.1 billion in 2Q’16. 2 RESEARCH QUARTERLY RESEARCH REPORT | 2Q | 2017 MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET Long-term public municipal issuance volume totaled $100.7 billion in the second Short-1 and Long-Term Municipal Issuance 2009 - 2017:Q2 600 $ Billions quarter of 2017, an increase of 16.3 percent from the prior quarter ($86.6 billion) Short-Term but a decline of 15.8 percent year-over-year ($119.5 billion). Year to date end 500 Long-Term June, municipal issuance totaled $187.2 billion and were generally in line with the 400 10-year average of $185.7 billion. Including private placements1 ($4.6 billion), 300 long-term municipal issuance for 2Q’17 was $105.1 billion. 200 Tax-exempt issuance totaled $87.6 billion in 2Q’17, an increase of 14.4 percent 100 q-o-q but a decline of 16.9 percent y-o-y; year to date, tax-exempt issuance was 0 $164.2 billion. Taxable issuance totaled $9.3 billion in 2Q’17, an increase of 29.0 YTD 2016 2017 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q2 percent q-o-q and an increase of 36.4 percent y-o-y; year to date, taxable issuance 1Includes maturities of 13 months or less totaled $16.6 billion. AMT issuance was $3.7 billion in 2Q’17, an increase of 35.3 Source: Thomson Reuters percent q-o-q but a decline of 48.3 percent y-o-y; year to date, AMT volumes Municipal GO AAA and 10-Yr Treasury Ratio June 2010 - June 2017 were $6.5 billion. 1.8 % Yield 1.6 By use of proceeds, general purpose led issuance totals in 2Q’17 ($22.0 billion), followed by primary & secondary education ($20.6 billion) and water & sewer 1.4 facilities ($10.4 billion). Refunding volumes rose slightly to comprise 40.8 percent 1.2 of issuance in 2Q’17 from 34.2 percent in the prior quarter but were a decline from 51.5 percent year-over-year.2 1.0 0.8 Yields, Inflows, and Total Return Ratios of 10-year tax-exempt AAA GOs and similar-maturity Treasuries fell in 0.6 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 the first quarter on a q-o-q basis, averaging 89.6 percent in 2Q’17 from 95.6 per- Source: Bloomberg, MMA cent in 1Q’17. Average Daily Trading Volume of Municipal Securities1 2013:Q2 -2017:Q2 According to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), first quarter net flow into 14.0 $ Billions long-term tax-exempt funds was positive, with $7.9 billion of net inflow in 12.0 2Q’17 compared to $7.1 billion of inflow from 1Q’17 and $19.2 billion of in- 10.0 flow y-o-y. 8.0 According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch indices, municipals gained 2.9 per- 6.0 cent in the second quarter of 2017. The utilities, tobacco, and health sectors had 4.0 the strongest performance within the individual sectors (2.4 percent, 2.3 percent 2.0 and 2.3 percent respectively) had the strongest performance within the individual 0.0 municipal sectors in 2Q’17 while general obligation (GO), tax, and toll/turnpike 13:Q2 13:Q4 14:Q2 14:Q4 15:Q2 15:Q4 16:Q2 16:Q4 17:Q2 1Includes both dealer-to-dealer and customer-to-dealer transactions. underperformed relative to other municipal sectors (1.4 percent, 1.4 percent and Source: Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board 1.7 percent total return, respectively). Build America Bonds (BABs) gained 2.9 percent, outperforming both tax exempts bonds (2.2 percent) and similarly-rated corporate bonds (2.0 percent) in 2Q’17. Year to date ending June, tax-exempt municipals returned 3.4 percent, Build America Bonds returned 4.2 percent, and investment grade corporates returned 3.3 percent. Trading Activity and Bank Holdings Trading activity fell q-o-q to $10.6 billion daily in 2Q’17, a 5.1 percent decrease from 1Q’17 ($11.1 billion) and a 6.2 percent decline from 2Q’16 ($11.3 billion). By number of trades, trading activity also fell 5.6 percent on a q-o-q basis but rose 9.7 percent on a y-o-y basis. Bank holdings of both municipal loans and bonds rose in 1Q’17 from the prior quarter to $176.0 billion (from $173.7 billion) and $378.2 billion (from $375.4 billion), respectively. 1 Private placement figures are excluded in charts and tables. 2 Percentages represent both full refundings and the half the dollar amount of deals that contain both refundings and new financing. 3 RESEARCH QUARTERLY RESEARCH REPORT | 2Q | 2017 TREASURY MARKET Gross Issuance of U.S. Treasury Securities Quaterly Gross Issuance of U.S.
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