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Major Powers' Interests in Indian Ocean Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan i ii Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan CONTENTS Acknowledgements Acronyms Introduction 1 Welcome Address 12 Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin Opening Remarks Kristof W. Duwaerts 15 Inaugural Address Admiral (R) Noman Bashir 19 Concluding Address Admiral (R) Muhammad Asif Sandila 25 Concluding Remarks Jacqueline Wilk 28 Vote of Thanks Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin 30 Recommendations 32 CHAPTER 1 Piracy and Trafficking: Maritime and Security Policy Challenges Sarwar Jahan Chowdhury 36 CHAPTER 2 Maritime and Naval Power Play: Competing Roles & Missions Rear Admiral (R) Pervaiz Asghar 61 CHAPTER 3 Possible Implications of the Obama ―Pivot‖ or ―Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific‖ for the Indian Ocean Region Dr. David R. Jones 70 CHAPTER 4 Blue-waters Dynamics in Indian Ocean: Possible Scenarios Dr. Nasser Hadian 80 Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan iii CHAPTER 5 International Law and Order: The Indian Ocean and South China Sea Dr. Wang Hanling 82 CHAPTER 6 Emerging Challenges in Indian Ocean Region: Role of Pakistan Navy Muhammad Azam Khan 92 CHAPTER 7 Maritime Security Dynamics in Indian Ocean: Pak-China-India Lt. Cdr. (R) Adil Rashid 111 CHAPTER 8 Contemporary Geopolitics of Indian Ocean and Great Power Competition over Gwadar Dr A. Z. Hilali 124 CHAPTER 9 Strengthening Cooperation: Collective Security of Sea Lanes Dr. Muhammad Khan 163 CHAPTER 10 Integration of Indian Ocean Community: Challenges and Dividends: Deterring and Suppressing Transnational Organised Crime Captain (R) Martin A. Sebastian 180 CHAPTER 11 Maritime Economic Cooperation: Hydrocarbons, Fisheries and Minerals Dr. Shahid Amjad 197 Contributors 207 Index 210 IPRI Publications 215 iv Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan Acronyms AIS Automatic Identification System ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASW Anti-submarine Warfare AWACS Airborne Warning and Control System BMD Ballistic Missile Defence CENTCOM US Central Command CENTO Central Treaty Organization CGPCS Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia CMCP Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan CMF Combined Maritime Forces COMPSRON Military Sealift Command Squadron CSCAP Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific CSI Container Security Initiative EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone FPDA Five Powers‘ Defense Arrangements GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product HRA High Risk Area IMC International Maritime Conference IONS Indian Ocean Naval Symposium IOR Indian Ocean Region IOR-ARC Indian Ocean Rim-Association of Regional Cooperation IOTC Indian Ocean Tuna Commission IOZP Indian Ocean Zone of Peace JMICC Joint Maritime Information and Coordination Centre Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan v MDA Maritime Domain Awareness MDP Maritime Doctrine of Pakistan MENA Middle East and North Africa MSOs Mission Security Operations NALT Naval Arms Limitation Treaty NAM Non-Aligned Movement PMPF Puntland Maritime Police Force PN Pakistan Navy PRC Peoples Republic of China PSI Proliferation Security Initiative RDF Rapid Deployment Force ReCAAP Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery RMSI Regional Maritime Security Initiative SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons SCS South China Sea SLOCs Sea Lines of Communications SNMG Standing Naval Maritime Group TOC Transnational Organised Crime TTEG Tripartite Technical Expert Group US United States Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan 1 Acknowledgements This volume is based on papers presented at the two-day international conference on ―Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan‖ held on November 18-19, 2014 at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. The Conference was jointly organized by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and the Hanns Seidel Foundation, (HSF), Islamabad. IPRI is especially thankful to Mr. Kristof Duwaerts, Resident Representative, HSF, Islamabad, for his cooperation and sharing the financial expenses of the Conference. For the papers presented in this volume, we are grateful to all participants from Pakistan and abroad, as well as the chief guests and chairpersons of the different sessions. We are also thankful to the scholars, students and professionals, who accepted our invitation to participate in the Conference. The successful completion of the Conference owes much to the efforts and logistical support provided by the staff of the IPRI, especially Ms. Maria Syed, Assistant Research Officer, who also served as Stage Secretary. Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan 1 Introduction Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin Khalid Chandio and Khurram Abbas his volume is based on the papers read and presentations made at the T two-day international conference on ―Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan‖ organized by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) in collaboration with Germany‘s Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), Islamabad on November 18-19, 2014 at Serena Hotel, Islamabad, Pakistan. The conference comprised four working sessions in addition to the inaugural and concluding sessions. Eleven presentations were made by eminent scholars from Pakistan, China, US, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Iran that covered various themes such as ―Indian Ocean: Center Stage for the 21stCentury‖, ―Major Powers‘ Interests: Competition and Cooperation in Indian Ocean‖, ―Regional Power Play in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan‖ and ―Working for Peaceful Indian Ocean Rim: A Win-Win Situation for All.‖ The conference helped in: (a) understanding geo-political and geo-economic importance of the Indian Ocean in contemporary times; (b) identifying interests of major powers in the region; (c) analysing the ongoing competition and cooperation among international and regional actors; (d) forwarding policy options for Pakistan; and (e) exploring possible mechanism for cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). A US naval strategist, Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, once remarked, ―Whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia. This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the twenty-first century, the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters.‖ The IOR, having 36 states around its littoral belt with additional eleven hinterland states, which though landlocked, make it important as these are all involved, one way or the other, in its politics and trade. The highest tonnage of the world‘s goods, i.e., 65 per cent of world oil, and 35 per cent of gas, located in the littoral states, also passes through it. The region today stands amidst an arena of contemporary geopolitics and geo-economics as this major sea route connects the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia with Europe and the Americas. Travel across the IOR and passage from its waters into 2 Major Powers‘ Interests in Indian Ocean: Challenges and Options for Pakistan neighbouring seas is both facilitated and potentially constrained by several choke points – the Mozambique Channel, the Bab el Mandeb, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, the Malacca Straits, the Sunda Strait, and the Lombok Strait. At present, there are many challenges as well as opportunities facing the IOR and the South China Sea (SCS) as these areas, with the passage of time, have emerged as central theatres of 21st century geopolitics. The Indian Ocean once regarded as a ―neglected ocean‖ has, today, become the hub of political, strategic and economic activities due to the presence of conventional and nuclear vessels of the major powers and nuclear weapon states like Pakistan, China and India. Key regional powers are placing great reliance on the deployment of fleet missile submarines and Submarine- Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) for second strike capability as well as for maintaining balance of power in the region. The US had established its naval base in the IOR at Diego Garcia to protect the US vital interests in the region. There are significant implications attached to the US‘ new ―Asia Pivot‖ strategy. The Indo-US collusion in the IOR has naturally made Pakistan and China wary about the strategic balance in the IOR. Regional and extra regional powers are now paying increasing attention on the IOR issues within a complex geopolitical framework where their interests and objectives are inextricably meshed. The post-Cold War scenario has somehow relegated the Atlantic Ocean to a less important position compared to the IOR as a conduit for Western military supplies and the Persian Gulf hydrocarbon resources. Add to this, the turbulent regional socio-political environment (including America‘s military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan), and the rise of China as a global power which together have made IOR an area of crucial geo-strategic importance. As a result, traditional maritime security concerns have become more important due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and piracy by Somalians near Bab-el- Mandeb. Stretching eastward from the Horn of Africa all the way to the Indonesian archipelago and beyond, the IOR has the potential to be the centre of global conflicts because most international commerce will flow through this route. Pakistan is aware of its immediate and extended neighbourhood in IOR. Pakistan has to evaluate its options and come up prepared to face any challenges
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