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Anatole Kaletsky Capitalism Anatole Kaletsky Capitalism 4.0 The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis Public Affairs, New York, 2010 1 Table of Contents Title Page Dedication Introduction Part I - Capitalism and Evolution CHAPTER ONE - Mr. Micawber and Mad Max CHAPTER TWO - Political Economy and Evolution CHAPTER THREE - The Four Ages of Capitalism Part II - The Arrow and the Ring CHAPTER FOUR - Annus Mirabilis CHAPTER FIVE - The Four Megatrends CHAPTER SIX - The Great Moderation The Platform Company: A New Business Model The Reinvention of Demand Management CHAPTER SEVEN - The Financial Revolution Megatrends in Housing and Finance CHAPTER EIGHT - The Ring of Finance CHAPTER NINE - Boom and Bust Forever The Theories of Boom-Bust Cycles Why Finance Is Different from Every Other Business Part III - Market Fundamentalism Self-Destructs CHAPTER TEN - The Economic Consequences of Mr. Paulson CHAPTER ELEVEN - There Is No Can Opener The First Era of Economics The Second Era: Keynes’s Government-Led Economics The Third Era: The Triumph of Rational and Efficient The Next Transition CHAPTER TWELVE - Toward a New Economics Part IV - The Great Transition CHAPTER THIRTEEN - The Adaptive Mixed Economy Energy Policy and the 2008 Oil Shock CHAPTER FOURTEEN - Irresistible Force Meets Immoveable Object CHAPTER FIFTEEN - What—Me Worry? Will Rising Interest Rates Choke Off Economic Recovery? Will Printing Money Unleash Inflation? Will the Dollar Collapse? Part V - Capitalism 4.0 and the Future CHAPTER SIXTEEN - Economic Policy in Capitalism 4.0 Will There Be a Government Debt Crisis? The Myth of National Bankruptcy The Myth of Burdening Our Grandchildren The Real Case for Tackling Deficits Japanese-Style Paralysis and Zombie Banks The Great Rebalancing of Global Growth Stagflation CHAPTER SEVENTEEN - Politics in Capitalism 4.0 Conservatives Will Keep Winning Until Progressives Find a Narrative More Government Means Smaller Government Democracy Means Less Power for Public Opinion Bigger Deficits Are Necessary but Impossible Priorities: Less Spending and More Taxes International Experience: Learning from Others’ Mistakes Commanding Heights: As Socialism Has Retreated, It Has Won Health Reform: More Government and More Market Health Care Reform Will Become a Conservative Issue Progressives Will Fight for Less Progressive Taxes CHAPTER EIGHTEEN - Finance and Banking in Capitalism 4.0 2 Finance Is Indispensable Uncertainty and Guarantees Regulation Capital Structures Accounting Credit Ratings and Macroeconomic Assumptions Mortgage Market Reform Fiduciary Duty and Government as a Silent Partner Bankers’ Earnings and Bank Profits Talent and Plunder CHAPTER NINETEEN - The World of Capitalism 4.0 Global Competition between the United States and China Convergence between the United States and Europe The Rivalry of Western and Asian Values Business Interests Will Embrace the New Model Trade and Industrial Structures Limits to Growth and Physical Resources The Environment Can Become a Positive Economic Story Prosperity without Growth Currencies and Financial Relations: Will There Be a New Bretton Woods? Will Global Governance Be Strengthened to Resolve Global Problems? Notes Bibliography 3 Introduction THE WORLD DID NOT END. Despite all the forebodings of disaster in the 2007-09 financial crisis, the first decade of the twenty-first century passed rather uneventfully into the second. The riots, soup kitchens, and bankruptcies predicted by many of the world’s most respected economists did not materialize—and no one any longer expects the global capitalist system to collapse, whatever that emotive word might mean. Yet the capitalist system’s survival does not mean that the precrisis faith in the wisdom of financial markets and the efficiency of free enterprise will ever again be what it was before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. A return to decent economic growth and normal financial conditions is likely by the middle of 2010, but will this imply a return to business as usual for politicians, economists, and financiers? Although globalization will continue and many parts of the world will gradually regain their prosperity of the precrisis period, the traumatic effects of 2007-09 will not be quickly forgotten. And the economic costs will linger for decades in the debts squeezing taxpayers and government budgets, the disrupted lives of the jobless, and the vanished dreams of homeowners and investors around the world. For what collapsed on September 15, 2008, was not just a bank or a financial system. What fell apart that day was an entire political philosophy and economic system, a way of thinking about and living in the world. The question now is what will replace the global capitalism that crumbled in the autumn of 2008. The central argument of this book is that global capitalism will be replaced by nothing other than global capitalism. The traumatic events of 2007-09 will neither destroy nor diminish the fundamental human urges that have always powered the capitalist system—ambition, initiative, individualism, the competitive spirit. These natural human qualities will instead be redirected and reenergized to create a new version of capitalism that will ultimately be even more successful and productive than the system it replaced. To explain this process of renewal, and identify some of the most important features of the reinvigorated capitalist system, is the ambition of this book. This transformation will take many years to complete, but some of its consequences can already be discerned. With the benefit of even a year’s hindsight, it is clear that these consequences will be different from the nihilistic predictions from both ends of the political spectrum at the height of the crisis. On the Left, anticapitalist ideologues seemed honestly to believe that a few weeks of financial chaos could bring about the disintegration of a politico-economic system that had survived two hundred years of revolutions, depressions, and world wars. On the Right, free-market zealots insisted that private enterprise would be destroyed by government interventions that were clearly necessary to save the system—and many continue to believe that the crisis could have been resolved much better if governments had simply allowed financial institutions to collapse. A balanced reassessment of the crisis must challenge both left-wing hysteria and right-wing hubris. Rather than blaming the meltdown of the global financial system on greedy bankers, incompetent regulators, gullible homeowners, or foolish Chinese bureaucrats, this book puts what happened into historical and ideological perspective. It reinterprets the crisis in the context of the economic reforms and geopolitical upheavals that have repeatedly transformed the nature of capitalism since the late eighteenth century, most recently in the Thatcher-Reagan revolution of 1979-89. The central argument is that capitalism has never 4 been a static system that follows a fixed set of rules, characterized by a permanent division of responsibilities between private enterprise and governments. Contrary to the teachings of modern economic theory, no immutable laws govern the behavior of a capitalist economy. Instead, capitalism is an adaptive social system that mutates and evolves in response to a changing environment. When capitalism is seriously threatened by a systemic crisis, a new version emerges that is better suited to the changing environment and replaces the previously dominant form. Once we recognize that capitalism is not a static set of institutions, but an evolutionary system that reinvents and reinvigorates itself through crises, we can see the events of 2007- 09 in another light: as the catalyst for the fourth systemic transformation of capitalism, comparable to the transformations triggered by the crises of the 1970s, the crises of the 1930s, and the Napoleonic Wars of 1803-15. Hence the title of this book. The first of these great transitions—the period of social and economic upheaval that started with the political revolutions in America and France and the industrial revolution in England— created the first era of modern capitalism, running roughly from the British victory over Napoleon in 1815 until the First World War. This long period of relative systemic stability and rising prosperity ended with the First World War, the Russian Revolution, and finally the Great Depression in the United States. These unprecedented political and economic traumas destroyed the classical laissezfaire capitalism of the nineteenth century and created a different version of the capitalist system, embracing Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, and the British and European welfare states. Then, forty years after the Great Depression, another enormous economic crisis—the global inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s—inspired the free-market revolution of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, creating a third version of capitalism, clearly distinct from the previous two. Forty years after the great inflation of the late 1960s, the global economy was hit by another systemic crisis, in 2007-09. The argument of this book is that this crisis is creating a fourth version of the capitalist system, a new economy as different from the designs of Reagan and Thatcher as those were from the New Deal. Hence the birth of a new economy in the subtitle of this book. The concept of capitalism as an evolutionary system, whose economic rules and political institutions are subject to profound change, may seem controversial
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