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Présentation Powerpoint Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 08.45 WELCOME REMARKS Luis CABRAL I Chair, Department of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York Lawrence WHITE I Professor, Department of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 09.00 OPENING KEYNOTE SPEECH Noah Joshua PHILLIPS I Commissioner, US Federal Trade Commission, Washington, DC Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 09.30 ANTITRUST IN SPORTS Roger NOLL I Professor of Economics, Emeritus, Stanford University, Stanford Andrew ZIMBALIST I Professor of Economics, Smith College, Northampton Brad HUMPHREYS I Professor of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown Rodney FORT I Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Michael HAUSFELD I Partner, Hausfeld, Washington, DC James KEYTE I Director, Competition Law Institute, Fordham Law School, New York Moderator: Lawrence WHITE | Professor, Department of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York 10.45 Coffee Break Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 11.00 TELECOM MERGERS Gail LEVINE I Deputy Director, Bureau of Competition, US Federal Trade Commission, Washington, DC Tim BRENNAN I Professor of Public Policy & Economics, University of Maryland, Baltimore Gregory ROSSTON I Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford Dennis CARLTON I Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago John HARKRIDER I Partner, Axinn, New York Cristina CAFFARRA I Vice President, Head of European Competition, CRA, London/Brussels Moderator: Katja SEIM I Associate Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 12.15 Lunch Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join BT/ EE (2015) the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics TeliaSonera/ Telenor TeliaSonera/ O2/Three (2014) (2015X) Tele2 (2014) T-Mobile-Tele2 Vodafone/ O2/Three (2015) (2018) KDG (2013) e-plus/ O2 Ziggo/LGI (2014) (2014) Mobile and mobile Vodafone/Ziggo (2016) Cable and cable Hybrid mobile and cable/fixed Telenet/ Base (2015) Network and content LGI/De Vijver (2014, 2019) Vodafone/LGI (2019) LGI/KBW (2013) Numericable/ SFR (2014) Orange//H3G (2012) Sunrise/UPC (2019) Bouygues/ Orange Three/ Wind (2016) (2016, abandoned) Cabovisao / PTT (2015) Orange/Jazztel (2014) Altice/Media Vodafone/ Wind Hellas Capital (2017) TIM/Vivendi/Mediaset (2012 – abandoned) (2017) Optimus/ ZON Vodafone/Ono (2014) (2013) Cellcom/Golan (2016) Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 01.45 PRICING ISSUES IN PHARMA: PAY-FOR-DELAY, PRODUCT HOPPING... Paul CSISZÁR I Director, European Commission - DG COMP, Brussels David GILO I Professor of Law, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv George ROZANSKI I Partner, Bates White, Washington, DC Ingrid VANDENBORRE I Partner, Skadden Arps, Brussels Jack PACE I Partner, White & Case, New York Moderator: Robert WILLIG I Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Emeritus, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University 03.00 Coffee Break Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 03.15 IN-HOUSE COUNSEL SESSION: PLATFORMS Samantha KNOX I Associate General Counsel, Facebook, San Francisco Martin D’HALLUIN I VP, Associate General Counsel, News Corp, New York David HIGBEE I Partner, Shearman & Sterling, Washington, DC Boris BERSHTEYN I Partner, Skadden Arps, New York Moderator: Harry FIRST I Professor, NYU School of Law, New York Follow us on Twitter @CompetitionLaws and join the conversation using #GlobalAntitrustEconomics 04.30 CLOSING KEYNOTE SPEECH Hal VARIAN I Chief Economist, Google, San Francisco 05.00 Drinks The Seven Deadly Sins of Tech? Hal Varian NYU May 2019 The views in this presentation are those of the author and do not represent the views of his employer or any other party. alleged! The /Seven Deadly Sins of Tech? Hal Varian NYU May 2019 The views in this presentation are those of the author and do not represent the views of his employer or any other party. The alleged seven deadly sins of tech ● Concentration ● Competition ● Innovation ● Acquisitions ● Entry ● Lock-in ● Fixed costs Concentration Concentration ● Autor, et. al. (2017) describe two interpretations of concentration increase ○ “...super-star firms with higher productivity increasingly capture a larger slice of the market,” ○ “...arise from anticompetitive forces whereby dominant firms are able to prevent actual and potential rivals from entering and expanding.” ● Their conclusion: industries that became more concentrated were those in which productivity increased the most ● Related findings by Ganapati [2017], Bessen [2017], OECD, and others. Competition Where’s the competition in search? Follow the money. ● General purpose search is a tough business: you can only sell 6% of what you produce. ○ Just ask AOL, Ask Jeeves, Yahoo, Inktomi, Excite, Lycos… ○ Why? Only 6% of clicks are commercial clicks (ads) ○ Competition is intense for commercial clicks: Amazon, eBay, Yelp, Travelocity, Expedia, Orbitz, Trip Advisor, and thousands of comparison and review sites ● By contrast no one cares about non-commercial search from an antitrust perspective: book search, scholar search, patent search, encyclopedia search, etc. Why is competition intense for commercial clicks? ● Companies want users to go directly to them, so they try to build a strong brand, good reputation. For example, now 54% of shopping journeys in the US start on Amazon. ● Companies advertise heavily now so they don’t have to advertise so much in the future. ○ The widespread use of apps (Amazon, Yelp, Maps) reinforce this trend. Yelp gets 35M visitors via its mobile app. ○ This competition for commercial clicks is great for users. ● If Google provides great answers for [ancient history], people will use Google to provide great answers to [sushi near me]. Competition Tech firms compete intensely against each other. That’s why prices are low, and innovation is high. Innovation Innovation Tech companies are leading spenders on R&D. Source: Bloomberg Innovation Tech companies are leading spenders on R&D. Even more if you group GAFA + Tech Source: Bloomberg Acquisitions Acquisitions by Google ● Median number of hires per acquisition: 6 ● 25% had 3 or fewer employees ● 75% had 18 or fewer employees ● These were primarily acqui- hires. There are 5 times as many exits via acquisitions than IPOs Silicon Valley Bank Entry Kill zone: where is it? ● Kill zone: “areas not worth operating or investing in, since defeat is guaranteed.” ● Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, China, Europe, and many others have all announced major AI initiatives. ● Surely no startup would want to enter this “kill zone” Kill zone: where is it? ● Kill zone: “areas not worth operating or investing in, since defeat is guaranteed.” ● Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, China, Europe, and many others have all announced major AI initiatives. ● Surely no startup would want to enter this “kill zone” ● Or would they? Source: AIindex.org 2018 Entry: VC finance of US startups Source: Sand Hill Econometrics and VentureSource Entry: VC finance of European startups Source: Sand Hill Econometrics and VentureSource Lock-in Switching costs and data portability ● Google Takeout: June 2011 ○ Download your data to desktop, Gdrive, OneDrive, Dropbox ● Data Transfer Project 2018 ○ Transfer your data between Google, Facebook, Microsoft Twitter… and others! ● Research ○ OpenImage (9.5M), YouTube Video (8M), and many others Fixed costs Fixed costs 1999: data centers centers, hardware, software, networking. Much of the software was proprietary, internal to the data center operator, and needed to be re-developed for everyone who used the datacenter. Example: Map/Reduce, Hadoop, BigTable, BigQuery, etc. 2019: Tools are open sourced, standardized and available at data centers built by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, etc. Everyone has access to technology that only the richest companies could afford a decade ago. Image recognition, communications, coordination, etc. In fact, now anybody can offer a new search engine. DuckDuckGo and Qwant ● DuckDuckGo uses 400 sources, and syndicates search results from Bing and Yahoo. It gets 45 million searches per month and has been profitable since 2014 ● Qwant does essentially the same thing, with 50 million unique queries per month, and is now the official search engine for the French government. ● Tech entrants no longer have fixed costs on the supply side. ● Fixed costs: that’s so 1990s, grandpa! ● But there is still a cost in attracting users: “Marketing fixed costs, though frequently overlooked, are often the more important of the two.” (Spence 1976.) ● Have to have a differentiator which in this case is privacy focus. How to start up a startup ● Fund your project on Kickstarter ● Set up a Kaggle competition ● Hire employees using LinkedIn ● Use Nolo for legal documents (company, patents, NDAs) ● Office space from WeWork ● Use QuickBooks for accounting. ● Cloud cloud computing and ● Use AdWords, Bing, Facebook for network from Google, Amazon, marketing Microsoft ● Use open source software
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