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Indexed Annuity Case 1:16-cv-01035-RDM Document 33-3 Filed 08/10/16 Page 1 of 153 CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY THE IMPACT OF THE RDR ON THE UK’S MARKET FOR FINANCIAL ADVICE FOURTH DRAFT: JUNE 2013 ANDREW CLARE, STEVE THOMAS, OMAL WALGAMA, & CHRISTINA MAKRIS AR064563 Case 1:16-cv-01035-RDM Document 33-3 Filed 08/10/16 Page 2 of 153 CONTENTS Executive Summary 5 Introduction 6 7KHLPSDFWRI5'5RQWKHPDUNHWIRU½QDQFLDODGYLFH $UHEHQFKPDUNV½WIRUSXUSRVH" 1.2 The impact on adviser numbers 11 7KHUHHPHUJHQFHRIGLUHFWVDOHVIRUFHV 3ODWIRUPVLQDQ5'5ZRUOG 7KHUROHRIWKH,)$LQD5'5ZRUOG &RQFOXVLRQV 7KHLPSDFWRI5'5RQDGYLVRUEXVLQHVVPRGHOV ,QGHSHQGHQWY5HVWULFWHG 2.2 Fee Structure 20 &OLHQW6HJPHQWDWLRQ %XVLQHVV0RGHO5HDGLQHVV 2.5 Outsourcing 24 &RQFOXVLRQV 7KHLPSDFWRI5'5RQWKHYDOXHRIDGYLVRU\EXVLQHVVHV )LQGLQJYDOXHLQDQDGYLVRU\EXVLQHVV 9DOXDWLRQSULRUWR5'5 9DOXDWLRQLQD5'5ZRUOG 7KH5ROHRIFRQVROLGDWRUV 1HWZRUNV &RQFOXVLRQV $SSHQGL[7KHRQOLQHVXUYH\ 2 AR064564 Case 1:16-cv-01035-RDM Document 33-3 Filed 08/10/16 Page 3 of 153 The unintended consequences of the RDR initiative, accompanied by rapid change LQWHFKQRORJ\DQGVRFLDOPHGLDLVOLNHO\WRIXUWKHUH[WHQGWKH²DGYLFHJDS³OHDYLQJ DVLGHWKRVHZKRKDYHWRRIHZDVVHWVWRPHULWDWWHQWLRQIURPSURIHVVLRQDODGYLVHUV WKRXJKWKH\PD\ZHOOEHLQQHHGRI½QDQFLDODGYLFH7KLVFDQQRWEHDGHVLUDEOH RXWFRPH$QGVXUHO\ZDVQRWWKHLQWHQGHGOHJDF\RI5'5"%XWWKHJRRGQHZVLVWKDW WKHPDVVLYHVKDNHRXWLQWKHLQGXVWU\ZLOOFUHDWHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUWKHPRUHZHOO TXDOL½HGDQGVRSKLVWLFDWHGDGYLVHUVZKRFDQJHQXLQHO\DGGYDOXHZLWKWKHLUFOLHQW SURSRVLWLRQV°DQGWKH\ZLOOEHDLGHGE\WKHKXJHLQFUHDVHLQWUDQVSDUHQF\DIIRUGHG E\WKHHQGWRSODWIRUPUHEDWHVDQGWUDLOFRPPLVVLRQ7KH½WWHVWZLOOVXUYLYHDQGWKDW PXVWEHJRRGIRUVRPHWKLQJDVLPSRUWDQWDVORQJWHUPZHDOWKDFFXPXODWLRQ i. $GYLVRUQXPEHUVIHOOIURPDWWKHHQGRIWRE\WKHVWDUW RIZH½QGWKDWWKHUHPDLQLQJ)LQDQFLDO$GYLVHUVDUHXQGXO\RSWLPLVWLF DERXWWKHLURZQEXVLQHVVSURVSHFWVLQWKH5'5ZRUOG+RZHYHUZHEHOLHYHWKDW FKDQJHVLQWKHLQGXVWU\KDYHDVPXFKWRGRZLWKXQIROGLQJWHFKQRORJLFDODQG FRPSHWLWLYHIRUFHVDVZLWK5'5LWVHOILQGHHG5'5LVRQO\SDUWRIWKHVWRU\RI change. ii. :HEHOLHYHWKDWDGYLVHUVVXEVWDQWLDOO\XQGHUHVWLPDWHWKHWKUHDWIURP'& offerings, and are overoptimistic about future revenues from unchanging or VORZO\FKDQJLQJEXVLQHVVPRGHOVDQGOR\DOFXVWRPHUV iii. <HWDQLQFUHDVLQJO\½QDQFLDOO\OLWHUDWHULFKHUDQGFRPSXWHUVDYY\FOLHQWHOHZLOO RIIHUIHUWLOHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUWKRVHDGYLVHUVZKRFDQGHPRQVWUDWHPRUHULJRURXV DQGVRSKLVWLFDWHGSURSRVLWLRQVJRLQJIRUZDUG7KHVXUYLYLQJDGYLVHUVZKRULVH WRPHHWWKLVFKDOOHQJHDUHOLNHO\WREHKLJKO\TXDOL½HGDQGFDQH[SHFWDEXR\DQW demand for their services. iv. :H½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½JXUHVDUHIDUORZHUWKDQ the ‘required’ numbers indicated in our survey. This excessive optimism on future UHYHQXHVVXJJHVWVWKDWPDQ\PRUHDGYLVHUVZLOOKDYHWROHDYHWKHLQGXVWU\RU accept far reduced incomes. v. 2IFRXUVHWKHDERYHQXPEHUVGRQRWDFFRXQWHLWKHUIRUUHJLRQDOYDULDWLRQVLQ ZHDOWKRUIRUWKHIDFWWKDWWKHKHDGOLQH½JXUHRI GRHVQRWDOORZIRUWKH DWWUDFWLRQWR,)$VRIWKHJURZWKSRVVLELOLWLHVRIVPDOOHUSRWVRIZHDOWKRYHUWKH OLIHF\FOHRIWKHFOLHQW7KHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRILQYHVWLEOHDVVHWVLQ/RQGRQDQGWKH 6RXWK(DVWWRJHWKHUZLWKXQGRXEWHGSRFNHWVRIDI¾XHQFHQDWLRQDOO\WKHUHIRUH PDNHVJHQHUDOLVDWLRQVIUDXJKWZLWKGLI½FXOW\ AR0645653 Case 1:16-cv-01035-RDM Document 33-3 Filed 08/10/16 Page 4 of 153 vi. $GYLVHUVSRLQWWR5'5µVUDLVLQJRIPLQLPXPHGXFDWLRQOHYHOVWR4&)DVD major reason for the timing of the recent reduction in adviser numbers. Those UHPDLQLQJDUHQHDUO\DOOQRZDSSURSULDWHO\TXDOL½HGDQGKHQFHIXUWKHUUHGXFWLRQV IRUWKLVUHDVRQDORQHFDQQRWEHH[SHFWHGXQOHVVFRPSHWHQFHVWDQGDUGVDUH UDLVHG\HWDJDLQ:H½QGWKDW½QDQFLDOSODQQLQJDQGLWVDVVRFLDWHGSURIHVVLRQDO TXDOL½FDWLRQDUHOLNHO\WREHFRPHPRUHLPSRUWDQWDVSDUWRIWKHDGYLVRU\ industry’s proposition. vii. Apart from an increase in the minimum education standards required to remain DVDQDGYLVHUXQGHU5'5DGYLVHUVDOVRVDZLQFUHDVHGUHJXODWRU\DQGFRPSOLDQFH FRVWVDORQJZLWKGLI½FXOWLHVLQDGDSWLQJEXVLQHVVPRGHOVDVWKHRWKHUPDMRU UHDVRQVIRUWKHUHFHQWGHFOLQHLQDGYLVHUQXPEHUV7KHPLQLPXPFDSLWDO UHTXLUHPHQWRI IURPHQGZLOOVWUDLQWKHUHVRXUFHVRIPDQ\VPDOOHU ,)$V7KHVKDUSGHFOLQHLQWKHXQGRXEWHGFURVVVXEVLG\IURPODUJHUFOLHQWV WRVPDOOHURQHVZLOOEHYHU\FKDOOHQJLQJIRUPDQ\DGYLVRUVLIWKHFOLHQWZLWK DVVHWVRI PQSUHYLRXVO\SDLGSDEXWQRZLQWKHPRUHWUDQVSDUHQWZRUOG ZLOOEHSD\LQJRQO\RUEDVLVSRLQWVWKHQWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUFURVVVXEVLG\LV PDVVLYHO\UHGXFHG viii. 7KHPDMRULW\RIDGYLVHUV XVHDWOHDVWRQHSODWIRUPZLWKIXQFWLRQDOLW\ DQGHDVHRIXVHGRPLQDWLQJFRVWDVUHDVRQVIRUWKHLUFKRLFHRISODWIRUP &RQVROLGDWLRQLQWKHSODWIRUPZRUOGLVVHWWRDFFHOHUDWHZLWKWKH)&$´SODWIRUP SROLF\SDSHUµRI$SULOZLWKWKHEDQQLQJRIFDVKUHEDWHVWRFOLHQWVDQGWKH DGYHQWRIWUDQVSDUHQWFKDUJLQJODUJHUSODWIRUPVZLWKHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOHDUHVHW to increase their market share. ix. ,)$VVHH½QDQFLDOSODQQLQJDVEHLQJWKHPDMRUDFWLYLW\RIWKHDGYLVRU\FRPPXQLW\ JRLQJIRUZDUG7KLVZDVDOVRUH¾HFWHGLQLQWHUYLHZVZKHUHWKH´ZLQQHUVµSRVW 5'5ZHUHRIWHQFKDUDFWHULVHGDVEHLQJPRUHWHFKQLFDOO\VNLOOHGDQGSRVVHVVLQJ RIDVXSHULRUFOLHQWSURSRVLWLRQ x. RIDGYLVHUVVHHYDOXHLQUHPDLQLQJ´LQGHSHQGHQWµWKRXJKH[SHFWWRVHH PRUHXVHPDGHRIWKHUHVWULFWHGDGYLFHPRGHO xi. 1HDUO\DOODGYLVHUV H[SHFWWRFKDUJHFOLHQWVDWOHDVWSDUWLDOO\RQDVVHWV XQGHUDGYLFHUDWKHUWKDQVROHO\RQWKHEDVLVRID½[HGRUKRXUO\IHH xii. ,QYDOXLQJDGYLVRU\EXVLQHVVHVWKHNH\IHDWXUHVPHQWLRQHGE\PRVWUHVSRQGHQWV ZHUHUHFXUULQJWUDLORUIHHLQFRPH6LQFHWKH$SULODQQRXQFHPHQWE\WKH )&$RIWKH²VXQVHW³FODXVHZKLFKIRUELGVWUDLOLQFRPHIURPHYHQSUH5'5VROG IXQGVIURP$SULOWKZHFDQH[SHFWIXUWKHUGRZQZDUGSUHVVXUHRQDGYLVHU UHYHQXHVDQGEXVLQHVVYDOXDWLRQV,QDGGLWLRQLWLVDOVRSRVVLEOHWKDWDFTXLUHUV of advisory businesses prior to this announcement may have overpaid for these businesses. xiii. :LWKSUHVVXUHRQUHYHQXHVWRJHWKHUZLWKLQFUHDVHGFRVWVZHH[SHFWWRVHH DGYLVHUQXPEHUVUHVXPHWKHLUGRZQZDUGWUHQGRQFHWKHHFRQRPLFUHDOLWLHV RIWKHQHZUHJLPH GULYHQSDUWO\E\FRPSHWLWLYHFKDQJHDQGSDUWO\E\5'5DQG VXEVHTXHQWUHJXODWRU\DGMXVWPHQWV EHFRPHPRUHYLVLEOHWRDOOFRQFHUQHG7KLV ZLOOOHDGWRIXUWKHUFRQVROLGDWLRQDQGDEVRUSWLRQRIIXUWKHUERRNVRIEXVLQHVVDW GLPLQLVKLQJSULFHV)RUWKH½QDQFLDODGYLVHUVZLOOLQJWRULVHWRWKHVHFKDOOHQJHV WKHNH\ZLOOEHWRSURYLGHDKLJKO\TXDOL½HGDQGGLIIHUHQWLDWHGSURGXFWSURSRVLWLRQ DERYHDQGEH\RQGWKHEDVLFDGYLFHWKDWKDVEHHQVXI½FLHQWLQWKHSDVWEXWZKLFK LVQRZRXWPRGHG 4 AR064566 Case 1:16-cv-01035-RDM Document 33-3 Filed 08/10/16 Page 5 of 153 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The media attention greeting the introduction of RDR on 1st January, 2013 suggested WKDWDNH\DQGIDLOLQJLQJUHGLHQWLQWKH8.µV½QDQFLDOIDEULFZDV½QDOO\EHLQJNLFNHG LQWRWRXFK:LWKWKHLPSRVLWLRQRI5'5DZKROHVRPHWUDQVSDUHQWFKHDSHUIDLUHU VRSKLVWLFDWHG TXDOL½HGWR4&) QHZZRUOGRI½QDQFLDODGYLFHZRXOGWDNHFHQWUHVWDJH DQGWUDQVIRUPWKHORQJWHUPVDYLQJVµSRVVLELOLWLHVIRUODUJHQXPEHUVRIFRQVXPHUV$V SDUWRIWKLVVWXG\RXUHDUO\FRQYHUVDWLRQVZLWKVHDVRQHGLQGXVWU\SURIHVVLRQDOVVRRQ VXJJHVWHGWKDWVXFKDQHOHFWULI\LQJSURVSHFWZRXOGEHXQOLNHO\LQUHDOLW\:LWKWKH EHQH½WRIPDQ\DQGYDULHGVXFKGLVFXVVLRQVWRJHWKHUZLWKDZLGHUDQJLQJLQGXVWU\ VXUYH\ZHKDYHWRDGPLWVRPHZKDWUHOXFWDQWO\WKDWZKLOHWKHPRUDOO\FRPSHOOLQJFDVH IRUWUDQVSDUHQF\RIIHHVKDVLQGHHGEHHQPDVVLYHO\DGYDQFHGEXVLQHVVSUDFWLFHVDQG VWUXFWXUHVZRXOGSUREDEO\KDYHEHHQFKDQJLQJDQ\ZD\GULYHQE\WHFKQRORJLFDODGYDQFHV DQGFRPSHWLWLYHIRUFHV5'5LVPHUHO\DIDVWRYHUWDNLQJGXDOFDUULDJHZD\RQWKHZD\ WRDQDOUHDG\SUHGHWHUPLQHGGHVWLQDWLRQ°LWPD\KDYHVSHHGHGWKLQJVXSEXWLWKDV SUREDEO\QRWDOWHUHGWKHHQGSRLQW7KHUHLVRIFRXUVHQRGH½QLWLYHZD\RINQRZLQJZKDW WKHZRUOGZRXOGKDYHORRNHGOLNHLI5'5KDGQHYHUEHHQLQYHQWHGEXWDIWHURQO\DIHZ PRQWKVLQWR5'5 -XQH RXUUHVHDUFKDOVRVXJJHVWVVWURQJO\WKDWVRPHNH\LQGXVWU\ IHDWXUHVVXFKDVFKDUJLQJPD\FKDQJHIDUOHVVWKDQZDVSHUKDSVLQWHQGHGRUH[SHFWHG :K\GRZHWKLQNWKLV":KLOHVWLOOHDUO\GD\VLQWKH5'5ZRUOGRXUVXUYH\½QGVWKDWPDQ\ ,)$VEHOLHYHZLOOEHDQRWKHU\HDURIPDMRUFKDQJHVKRZHYHUWKHSUHIHUHQFHIRU FKDUJLQJFOLHQWVDVDSURSRUWLRQRIDVVHWV DOEHLWLQDQHZO\WUDQVSDUHQWZD\ LVFOHDUO\ DOUHDG\GRPLQDQWDQGWKHLGHDWKDWIHHEDVHGDGYLFHZRXOGVRPHKRZEHFRPHWKH VWDQGDUGPRGHORIIHULQJDQµREMHFWLYHµDGYLVRU\VROXWLRQLVYHU\IDUIHWFKHGLQGHHG 6RSKLVWLFDWHGFRPSXWHUDQG½QDQFLDOO\OLWHUDWHLQYHVWRUVDUHDOUHDG\JUDYLWDWLQJ WRLQWHUQHWVROXWLRQVZKHUHIHHVDUHWUDQVSDUHQWDQGORZ7KHDZDUHQHVVRI(7)V IXQGDPHQWDOLQGLFHVDQGVLPLODU´HFRQRPLFDOµSURGXFWVLVLQFUHDVLQJH[SRQHQWLDOO\ %XWZRXOGWKHVHSKHQRPHQDQRWDOUHDG\EHZHOOXQGHUZD\HYHQLI5'5KDGQRW KDSSHQHG"7KHSUHH[LVWLQJEXVLQHVVPRGHOZDVXQGHUWKUHDWIURPDUDQJHRIIRUFHV2Q WKHGHPDQGVLGHWKHVHIRUFHVLQFOXGHGFRQVXPHUVWKDWZHUH DUH FRPLQJWRWHUPVZLWK XQSUHFHGHQWHGIDOOVLQUHDOLQFRPHDQGZHDOWKDQGWKDWDUHEHVHWZLWKDODFNRIWUXVW LQ½QDQFLDOPDUNHWVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGZLWKOLWWOHVSDUHFDVKIRUVDYLQJVµSURGXFWV 2QWKHVXSSO\VLGHWKHVHIRUFHVLQFOXGHFKHDSSVHXGRDGYLVRU\RIIHULQJVSRLQWLQJWR KHDYLO\GLVFRXQWHGSDVVLYHSURGXFWVYLDWKHLQWHUQHWDQDJLQJ½QDQFLDODGYLFHZRUNIRUFH SHUKDSV½QGLQJWKHLQFUHDVLQJO\WHFKQLFDODQGTXDQWLWDWLYHQDWXUHRI½QDQFLDOSODQQLQJ DQGDVVRFLDWHGLQQRYDWLYHSURGXFWVYHU\FKDOOHQJLQJDQGDUHJXODWRUWKDWLVFRQVWDQWO\ PDNLQJSXEOLFQRLVHVDERXWIHHVDV´GHVWUR\HUVRIZHDOWKµDQGZKLFKLVFRQVWDQWO\ SXWWLQJDQXQIDYRXUDEOHVSRWOLJKWRQFHUWDLQNH\LQGXVWU\SUDFWLFHVVXFKDVWUDLO FRPPLVVLRQFXOPLQDWLQJLQ$SULOZLWKWKHDQQRXQFHPHQWWKDWDOOWUDLOFRPPLVVLRQ IURPSURGXFWVVROGSUH5'5ZLOOEHEDQQHG)XUWKHUDORQJZLWKWKLV´VXQVHWµFODXVHWKH )&$VWDWHGWKDWLWZRXOG´µJHQHUDOO\H[SHFWµµWRVHHFOLHQWVVKLIWHGLQWRQHZXQEXQGOHG FOHDQVKDUHFODVVHVZKLFKFKDUJHVKDUSO\ORZHUDQQXDOIHHVWRFOLHQWVDVWKH\GRQRWSD\ EDFNFRPPLVVLRQWRDGYLVHUVRUSODWIRUPVLQPRVWFDVHV
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