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The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’S Dream Peter Lynch Frontmatter More Information
Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-41483-9 - The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’s Dream Peter Lynch Frontmatter More information THE EMERGENCE OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION Richardson’s Dream In the early twentieth century, Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that scientific weather prediction would one day become a practical reality. The method of computing changes in the state of the atmosphere that he mapped out in great detail is essen- tially the method used today. Before his ideas could bear fruit several advances were needed: better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere; stable com- putational algorithms to integrate the equations of motion; regular observations of the free atmosphere; and powerful automatic computer equipment. By 1950, advances on all these fronts were sufficient to permit the first computer weather forecast to be made. Over the ensuing 50 years progress in numerical weather prediction has been dramatic, allowing Richardson’s dream to become a reality. Weather prediction and climate modelling have now reached a high level of sophistication. This book tells the story of Richardson’s trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of practical weather forecasting and climate modelling. It has a complete reconstruction of Richardson’s forecast, and analyses in detail the causes of the fail- ure of this forecast. It also includes a description of current practice, with particular emphasis on the work of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Fore- casts. This book will appeal to everyone involved in numerical weather forecasting, from researchers and graduate students to professionals. Peter Lynch is Met Eireann´ Professor of Meteorology at University College Dublin (UCD) and Director of the UCD Meteorology and Climate Centre. -
The Role of Nuclear Energy in Mitigating Greenhouse Warming
LA-UR-97-4380 Title: The Role of Nuclear Energy in Mitigating Greenhouse Warming Author(s): R. A. Krakowski Submitted to: http://lib-www.lanl.gov/la-pubs/00412585.pdf Los Alamos NATIONAL LABORATORY Los Alamos NATIONAL LABORATORY Los Alamos National Laboratory, an affirmative action/equal opportunity employer, is operated by the University of California for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract W-7405-ENG-36. By acceptance of this article, the publisher recognizes that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or to allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. The Los Alamos National Laboratory requests that the publisher identify this article as work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy. Los Alamos National Laboratory strongly supports academic freedom and a researcher’s right to publish; therefore, the Laboratory as an institution does not endorse the viewpoint of a publication or guarantee its technical correctness. Form No. 836 R5 ST 2629 10/91 THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN MITIGATING GREENHOUSE WARMING R. A. Krakowski Systems Engineering and Integration Group Technology and Safety Assessment Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545 ABSTRACT A behavioral, top-down, forced-equilibrium market model of long-term (~2100) global energy-economics interactions* has been modified with a “bottom-up” nuclear energy model and used to construct consistent scenarios describing future impacts -
Computer Simulation Tools to Enhance Undergraduate Power Systems Edu- Cation
Paper ID #9640 Computer Simulation Tools to Enhance Undergraduate Power Systems Edu- cation Dr. Matthew Turner, Purdue University (Statewide Technology) Matthew Turner is an Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering Technology at Purdue University in New Albany, IN. Previously with the Conn Center for Renewable Energy Research at the University of Louisville, his research interests include power distribution system modelling, best practices for power systems education, and electric energy and public policy. Dr. Chris Foreman, Purdue University, West Lafayette Chris Foreman (Ph.D. Computer Science and Engineering, University of Louisville, 2008) is a Senior Member of IEEE, the Power and Energy Society, and holds both B.S. (1990) and M.Eng. (1996) degrees in Electrical Engineering, also from the University of Louisville. He is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Technology at Purdue University. He teaches and performs research in renewable energy systems, smart power grids, industrial control systems, and cyber- security. He has over 15 years of power industry experience with companies such as Westinghouse Process Control Division (now Emerson Process Management), Cinergy (now Duke Energy), and Alcoa Inc. Dr. Rajeswari Sundararajan, Purdue University, West Lafayette c American Society for Engineering Education, 2014 Computer Simulation Tools to Enhance Undergraduate Power Systems Education Abstract This paper presents a review of software simulation tools relevant for use in undergraduate electrical power systems education. A study of the software packages is presented with respect to their utility in teaching according to the Cognitive Domain Hierarchy of Bloom's Taxonomy. 1. Introduction In recent years a variety of factors have combined to place increasing pressure on the electric power industry; including increasing electrical energy demand, aging infrastructure, energy independence and security goals, and increasingly stringent environmental regulation. -
1- Validating Simulation Models: a General Framework and Four
-1- Validating Simulation Models: AGeneral Framework and Four Applied Examples Robert E. Marks Australian Graduate School of Management Australian School of Business University of NewSouth Wales SydneyNSW 2052 Australia [email protected] June 18, 2007 ABSTRACT:This paper provides a framework for discussing the empirical validation of simulation models of market phenomena, in particular of agent-based computational economics models. Such validation is difficult, perhaps because of their complexity; moreover, simulations can prove existence, but not in general necessity.The paper highlights the Energy Modeling Forum’sbenchmarking studies as an exemplar for simulators. A market of competing coffee brands is used to discuss the purposes and practices of simulation, including explanation. The paper discusses measures of complexity,and derivesthe functional complexity of an implementation of Schelling’s segregation model. Finally,the paper discusses howcourts might be convinced to trust simulation results, especially in merger policy. Acknowledgments: We thank Rich Burton, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Ian Wilkinson, Shayne Gary, Peter McBurney, Hill Huntington, Leigh Tesfatsion, the participants at the Fourth UCLA LakeArrowhead Conference on Human ComplexSystems, and twoanonymous referees for their comments and assistance. JEL codes: C63, C15 Ke ywords: simulation; validation; agent-based computational economics; antitrust; functional complexity; Schelling; sufficiency; Daubert criteria -2- 1. Introduction The apparent past reluctance of some in the discipline to accept computer simulation models of economic phenomena might stem from their lack of confidence in the behaviour and results exhibited by such models. Even if there are other reasons, better validation of such models would reduce anyskepticism about their results and their usefulness. Leombruni et al. -
Interim Report 11-1-10
New York State Climate Action Council Interim Report 11-1-10 Additional Material Full Descriptions of Adaptation Recommendations This document provides additional information for each of the Adaptation Recommendations, including the following: • Potential implementation mechanisms • Related efforts • Research and information needs In some cases, sections are expanded from what is provided in the Climate Action Plan Interim Report. New York State Climate Action Council Interim Report 11-1-10 Agriculture Vision Statement Develop and adopt strategies and technological advances that recognize agriculture as a critical climate and resource dependent New York State industry that is inextricably linked to Earth’s carbon and nitrogen cycles, and ensure that in 2050, the agricultural sector is not only viable, but thriving in a carbon-constrained economy, and is continually adapting to a changing climate. Background Agriculture is a significant component of the New York economy; it includes large wholesale grower-shippers selling products nationally and internationally, a substantial dairy industry, and thousands of small farm operations selling direct retail and providing communities throughout the state with local, fresh produce. Farmers will be on the front lines of coping with climate change, but the direct impacts on crops, livestock, and pests, and the costs of farmer adaptation will have cascading effects beyond the farm gate and throughout the New York economy. While climate change will create unprecedented challenges, there are likely to be new opportunities as well, such as developing markets for new crop options that may come with a longer growing season and warmer temperatures. Taking advantage of any opportunities and minimizing the adverse consequences of climate change will require new decision tools for strategic adaptation. -
Linked Open Data: the Essentials a Quick Start Guide for Decision Makers
This is a quick start guide for decision makers who need to quickly get up to speed Florian Bauer, Martin Kaltenböck with the Linked Open Data (LOD) concept, and who want to make their organization a part of this movement. Linked Open Data: It gives a quick overview of all key aspects of LOD, and gives practical answers to many pertinent questions including: The Essentials • What do the terms Open Data, Open Government Data and Linked Open Data actually mean, and what are the dierences between them? A Quick Start Guide for • What do I need to take into account in developing a LOD strategy for my organization? Decision Makers • What does my organization need to do technically in order to open up and publish its data sets? • How can I make sure the data is accessible and digestible for others? • How can I add value to my own data sets by consuming LOD from other sources? • What can be learned from three case studies of best practices in LOD? • REEEP's clean energy information portal reegle.info • NREL's Open Energy Information Portal • The ocial home of UK legislation: legislation.gov.uk • What are the potentials offered by this fundamental step-change in the way data is shared and consumed via the web? edition mono ISBN: 978-3-902796-05-9 Linked Open Data: The Essentials A Quick Start Guide for Decision Makers by Florian Bauer (REEEP) and Martin Kaltenböck (Semantic Web Company) 2 Imprint Published by: edition mono/monochrom, Vienna, Austria ISBN: 978-3-902796-05-9 Print: DGS – Druck- u. -
Forecasting Natural Gas: a Literature Survey
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2018, 8(3), 216-249. Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey Jean Gaston Tamba1*, Salomé Ndjakomo Essiane2, Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken3, Francis Djanna Koffi4, Jean Luc Nsouandélé5, Bozidar Soldo6, Donatien Njomo7 1Department of Thermal and Energy Engineering, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon, 2Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon, 3Laboratory of Technologies and Applied Science, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon, 4Department of Thermal and Energy Engineering, University Institute of Technology, University of Douala, PO Box 8698 Douala, Cameroon, 5Department of Renewable Energy, Higher Institute of the Sahel, University of Maroua, PO Box 46, Maroua, Cameroon, 6HEP-Plin Ltd., Cara Hadrijana 7, HR-31000 Osijek, Croatia, 7Environmental Energy Technologies Laboratory, University of Yaoundé I, PO Box 812, Yaoundé, Cameroon. *Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT This work presents a state-of-the-art survey of published papers that forecast natural gas production, consumption or demand, prices and income elasticity, market volatility and hike in prices. New models and techniques that have recently been applied in the field of natural gas forecasting have discussed with highlights on various methodologies, their specifics, data type, data size, data source, results and conclusions. Moreover, we undertook the difficult task of classifying existing models that have been applied in this field by giving their performance for instance. Our objective is to provide a synthesis of published papers in the field of natural gas forecasting, insights on modeling issues to achieve usable results, and the future research directions. -
Introduction to Bioinformatics
Mesleki İngilizce - Technical English II • Notes: Prof. Dr. Nizamettin AYDIN – In the slides, • texts enclosed by curly parenthesis, {…}, are examples. • texts enclosed by square parenthesis, […], are [email protected] explanations related to examples. http://www.yildiz.edu.tr/~naydin 1 2 Computer Simulation Computer Simulation • Learning Objectives • Keywords – to acquire basic knowledge about simulation kinds and – mathematical model history • an abstract model that uses mathematical language to – to understand difference between simulation and describe a system modelling – to understand the power of simulation and its influence – stochastic process on modern science • a process with an indeterminate or random element as • Sub-areas covered opposed to a deterministic process that has no random element – Computer simulation – Discrete – Computer graphics – Mathematics • not supporting or requiring the notion of continuity – discrete objects are countable sets such as integers 3 4 Computer Simulation Computer Simulation • Keywords • Reading text – Computer Generated Imagery (CGI) • an application of the field of computer graphics (or, more • Pre-reading questions specifically, 3D computer graphics) to special effects in films, television programs, commercials and simulation – How can we solve problems in cases where – differential equation physical models are too complex or expensive to • a mathematical equation for an unknown function of one or build? several variables that relates the values of the function itself and of its derivatives -
Computer Simulation of Building Energy Consumption and Building Energy Efficiency
The 2nd International Conference on Computer Application and System Modeling (2012) Computer Simulation of Building Energy Consumption and Building Energy Efficiency Zhao Lei Song Jingying Architectural Engineering Architectural Engineering Xinxiang University Xinxiang University Abstract—Computer simulation of building energy begins. Different architectural style, different materials, consumption is one of important assisted tools in the field of different building equipment systems can be combined into energy efficiency, architects can easily design process at any many programs, from the many programs to select the most stage of the design of energy-saving evaluation by computer energy-efficient solutions, energy consumption must be simulation, or test can predict the future or existing Building estimated for each program, which is the computer building energy consumption, diagnostic analysis of building thermal energy simulation technology. process, so as to optimize the building design to minimize Computer simulation of building energy consumption is energy consumption to provide an accurate basis. one of important assisted tools in the field of energy efficiency. architects can easily design process at any stage Keywords-uilding energy efficiency, Building energy simulation computer technology, Architectural design of the design of energy-saving evaluation by computer simulation, or test can predict the future or existing buildings energy consumption, diagnostic analysis of building thermal I. INTRODUCTION process, so as to optimize the building design, to minimize All manuscripts must be in English. These guidelines energy consumption to provide an accurate basis. Just type in include complete descriptions of the fonts, spacing, and the program model of the architect, you can complete in related information for producing your proceedings design software, thermal performance, natural light, artificial manuscripts. -
The Use of Computer Simulation to Establish Energy Efficiency Parameters for a Building Code of a City in Brazil
Eighth International IBPSA Conference Eindhoven, Netherlands August 11-14, 2003 THE USE OF COMPUTER SIMULATION TO ESTABLISH ENERGY EFFICIENCY PARAMETERS FOR A BUILDING CODE OF A CITY IN BRAZIL Joyce Carlo1, Enedir Ghisi2 and Roberto Lamberts3 1. [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] LabEEE – Energy Efficiency in Buildings Laboratory Federal University of Santa Catarina Florianópolis, SC, 88040-970 - Brazil 1310TWh in 20 years (2000 to 2020), while India ABSTRACT would save 1659TWh in the same period and Mexico The first energy efficiency law for Brazil was 550TWh, representing reductions of 12%, 11% and presented in 2001, which required that buildings 12% in 20 years, respectively. One year before, in should have some energy efficiency regulation. 1995, Mexico approved its first energy standard, for Salvador city building code was then submitted to a commercial buildings [COMISIÓN NACIONAL study to include energy efficiency parameters related PARA EL AHORRO DE ENERGÍA, 1995a] and for to the building envelope. artificial lighting in buildings [COMISIÓN NACIONAL PARA EL AHORRO DE ENERGÍA, The energy consumption limits were associated with 1995b]. Both were based on ASHRAE Standard 90.1 the envelope parameters using simulation and using a [1999]. Recently, a DOE press release [DOE, 2002] multi-variable regression equation developed using stated that Mexico, United States and Canada are simulation. Twelve models were defined with the moving towards unifying their energy efficiency variables that influence most on energy consumption standards. This trend is already in progress in and were combined to the envelope variables Europe, where the European directives for energy resulting in the analysis of 1616 prototype buildings. -
Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs
Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs Financed under ADB-Australia South Asia Development Partnership Facility Economics of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Asia Options and Costs Ram Manohar Shrestha Mahfuz Ahmed Suphachol Suphachalasai Rodel Lasco December 2012 Financed under ADB-Australia South Asia Development Partnership Facility © 2013 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2013. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9092-143-1 (Print), 978-92-9092-383-1 (PDF) Publication Stock No. BKK135371-2 Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shrestha, R.M., M. Ahmed, S. Suphachalasai, and R.D. Lasco. Economics of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in South Asia: Options and costs. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013. 1. Climate change. 2. Mitigation. 3. South Asia. I. Asian Development Bank. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB. Cover photos from ADB photo library and AFP Imageforum. Note: In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. -
Review of Networks and Platforms for Low Emission and Climate Compatible Development Planning
Review of Networks and Platforms for Low Emission and Climate Compatible Development Planning Discussion Paper Prepared by the Coordinated Low Emissions Assistance Network (CLEAN) December 1, 2011 Executive Summary This paper responds to a request from the July 13th High Level Dialogue on Low Emission Development Policy Implementation convened by the World Bank for a review of existing networks and platforms supporting low emission and climate compatible development planning. It also presents results from an inventory of LEDS related programs across countries. This review is a preliminary desk based study based on information available through web sites, publications, and other information available to the authors. The conclusions presented here should be treated with caution given the limitations of the review, including the need for further dialogue and input from developing countries to evaluate the adequacy of existing networks and platforms relative to their needs and priorities. The review highlights the following trends: LEDS Networks and Platforms . A rich portfolio of low emission and climate compatible development platforms and networks are operating, with some notable gaps as highlighted in other points below. Many of these networks and platforms are seeking increased participation by developing countries and have not achieved balanced engagement across both developed and developing countries across regions. Few networks bring together private sector companies and investors with country government officials, international program managers, and technical institutes. High level political leaders across countries from all regions are not actively engaging in ongoing dialogue on LEDs issues through the existing networks, although several forums have tried with limited success to foster such high level dialogue.