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The Post-Caliphate Terror Threat in Europe—And the Need for Continuing U.S
BACKGROUNDER No. 3424 | AUGUST 19, 2019 MARGARET THATCHER CENTER FOR FREEDOM The Post-Caliphate Terror Threat in Europe—and the Need for Continuing U.S. Assistance Robin Simcox merica’s strategy has worked: It took almost KEY TAKEAWAYS four-and-a-half years, but the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq The Islamist threat to Europe has been A has been dismantled. The last remaining town under reduced, with key ISIS external operations ISIS control, Baghouz in eastern Syria, fell to coalition planners killed and its control of territory broken in Syria and Iraq. and Syrian Democratic Forces in March 2019. The destruction of the caliphate will make the world a safer place. It attracted foreign fighters, served However, the threat has diversified, and as a training ground for a generation of terrorists, and more terrorist attacks are still occurring breathed fresh life into key concepts in Islamist doc- in Europe than before the caliphate trine. Internal ISIS documentation laments a lack of was established. suicide bomber volunteers, weaponry, and financing,1 with despondency and low morale among foreign 2 The next center of gravity for global jihad- fighters from Europe. Some (though by no means ism is unclear. With conflicts simmering all) previously belligerent foreign fighters appear, at across the world, the U.S. and its allies least on the surface, dejected and contrite in inter- must try to get ahead of the threat. views with Western media.3 The foreign fighter flow to Syria has essentially ceased. This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3424 The Heritage Foundation | 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE | Washington, DC 20002 | (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. -
The Effects of the CIA's Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan
In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA's Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan Monica Martinez-Bravo & Andreas Stegmann (This paper also appears as CAGE Discussion paper 544) February 2021 No: 1332 Warwick Economics Research Papers ISSN 2059-4283 (online) ISSN 0083-7350 (print) In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA's Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan∗ Monica Martinez-Bravo Andreas Stegmann CEMFI University of Warwick BREAD, CEPR February 19, 2021 Abstract In July 2011, the Pakistani public learnt that the CIA had used a vaccination campaign as cover to capture Osama Bin Laden. The Taliban leveraged on this infor- mation and launched an anti-vaccine propaganda campaign to discredit vaccines and vaccination workers. We evaluate the effects of these events on immunization by imple- menting a Difference-in-Differences strategy across cohorts and districts. We find that vaccination rates declined 12 to 20% per standard deviation in support for Islamist parties. These results suggest that information discrediting vaccination campaigns can negatively affect trust in health services and demand for immunization. ∗We would like to thank Manuel Arellano, Diego Puga, Esther Duflo, Daron Acemoglu, Abhijit Banerjee, Benjamin Olken, Ernesto Dal B´o,Nathan Nunn, Noam Yutchman, Davide Cantoni, Patricia Funk, Helios Herrera, Asim Khwaja, Jishnu Das, Jacob Shapiro, Eli Berman, Brian Knight, Jesse Shapiro, Leonardo Bursztyn, Hunt Allcott, Nancy Qian, Guillermo Caruana, Paula Bustos, Pamela Campa, Elena Esposito, Joachim Voth, Michael Callen, Marcela Alsan, Konrad Burchardi, and Lorenzo Casaburi for valuable suggestions. We also thank seminar participants at NEUDC, CEMFI, Oxford University, Warwick University, University of Zurich, University of Munich, MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, IEB, Societat Catalana d'Economia, Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Stockholm University, IIES. -
Policing Terrorism
Policing Terrorism A Review of the Evidence Darren Thiel Policing Terrorism A Review of the Evidence Darren Thiel Policing Terrorism A Review of the Evidence Darren Thiel © 2009: The Police Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior permission of The Police Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Police Foundation. Enquires concerning reproduction should be sent to The Police Foundation at the address below. ISBN: 0 947692 49 5 The Police Foundation First Floor Park Place 12 Lawn Lane London SW8 1UD Tel: 020 7582 3744 www.police-foundation.org.uk Acknowledgements This Review is indebted to the Barrow Cadbury Trust which provided the grant enabling the work to be conducted. The author also wishes to thank the academics, researchers, critics, police officers, security service officials, and civil servants who helped formulate the initial direction and content of this Review, and the staff at the Police Foundation for their help and support throughout. Thanks also to Tahir Abbas, David Bayley, Robert Beckley, Craig Denholm, Martin Innes and Bob Lambert for their insightful, constructive and supportive comments on various drafts of the Review. Any mistakes or inaccuracies are, of course, the author’s own. Darren Thiel, February 2009 Contents PAGE Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 Chapter -
Transition in Afghanistan: Filling the Security Vacuum – the Expansion of Uighur Extremism?
Sources of Tension in Afghanistan and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective Transition in Afghanistan: Filling the Security Vacuum – The Expansion of Uighur Extremism? Raffaello Pantucci and Edward Schwarck May 2014 CIDOB Policy Research Project CIDOB BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS With support from TRANSITION IN AFGHANISTAN: FILLING THE SECURITY VACUUM – THE EXPANSION OF UIGHUR EXTREMISM? Raffaello Pantucci and Edward Schwarck Raffaello Pantucci is Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services his paper aims to map out as clearly as possible the current threat Institute for Defence and Security from Uighur extremist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and as- Studies (RUSI). His research focuses on certain whether these groups will develop into a regional threat terrorism and China’s relations with T Central and South Asia. over the next few years. Edward Schwarck is Research Fellow It will be argued that Uighur Sunni-jihadist groups in Afghanistan and Pa- and Head of the Asia Programme at the Royal United Services Institute for kistan are unlikely to be able to fill the security void in either country after Defence and Security Studies (RUSI). His the West’s withdrawal. Traditionally, these groups have struggled to gain research centres on domestic security in China – particularly in Xinjiang – and traction within the global jihadist community. China has also done an ef- Chinese foreign policy in the Asia- fective job of building regional relationships that means local governments Pacific region. would block their ascension into power. Furthermore, the number of Ui- ghur militants remains marginal, suggesting that, at worst, they might be able to take control of some small settlements. -
Islamic Radicalization in the Uk: Index of Radicalization
ISLAMIC RADICALIZATION IN THE UK: INDEX OF RADICALIZATION Anna Wojtowicz, (Research Assistant, ICT) Sumer 2012 ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the process of radicalization amongst British Muslims in the United Kingdom. It begins with a review of the Muslim population, demographics and community structure. Further presenting several internal and external indicators that influenced and led to radicalization of Muslim youth in Britain. The paper concludes that there is no one certainty for what causes radicalization amongst Muslims in United Kingdom. However, it is certain that Islamic radicalization and the emergence of a homegrown threat is a growing trend that jeopardizes the countries security, peace and stability. Radicalization in the United Kingdom is an existing concern that needs to be addressed and acted upon immediately. Misunderstanding or underestimating the threat may lead to further and long term consequences. * The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). 2 I. Introduction 4 II. Background 5 History of the Muslim Community in the United Kingdom 5 Population 7 Geographical Concentration of Muslims 8 Ethnic Background 10 Age Estimate 11 Occupation and Socio-Economic Conditions 11 Religious and Cultural Aspects 13 Multiculturalism 17 Islamophobia 20 Converts 21 Case Studies –London, Birmingham, Bradford, Leeds, Leicester 22 III. Organizations 28 Organizations within the United Kingdom 28 Mosques, Koranic Schools and Islamic Centers 34 Student Groups 40 Islamic Websites and TV 43 IV. Radicalization in Britain 43 Theoretical Background and Causes of Radicalization 43 Recruitment and Radicalization: Overlook 47 Radicalization Process 49 Forms of Financing 51 Radical Groups and Movements in the UK 53 Influential Leaders in the UK 60 Inspiration and Influence from Abroad 67 Sunni 67 Shia 70 3 V. -
Islamic Extremism in Europe”
Peter Bergen, Schwartz Fellow of the New America Foundation and adjunct professor of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. Wednesday, April 27, 2005, “Islamic Extremism in Europe” House Committee on International Relations The greatest threat to the United States from al Qaeda, its affiliated groups, or those animated by al Qaeda’s ideology, emanates today from Europe. There are four strands to this argument which will be amplified in my testimony. The first, is that there is little or no evidence of American “sleeper cells” found in the US since the 9/11 attacks. Secondly, the most significant Islamist terrorist plots in the United States in the past decade have generally not involved “sleeper cells,” but rather terrorists who have come into the U.S. from abroad, often from Europe. Third, in 2004, we saw with the Madrid attacks and the disruption of serious terrorist plots in London that there are European sleeper cells that have the ability and motivation to carry out major terrorist operations, and even, perhaps, to attack the United States itself. Fourth, the European threat from militant jihadists will likely increase over time as declining European populations are replaced by rising Muslim immigration into Europe, a combination of circumstances that is generating, and will continue to generate, rising Muslim alienation in many European countries, and a significant amount of backlash against Muslim immigrants in countries such as the Netherlands. Since the 9/11 attacks we have seen little evidence of US sleeper cells. The terrorism cases that American officials have prosecuted since 9/11 have often followed the trajectory of an initial trumpeting by the government only to collapse, or to be revealed as something less than earth shattering, when the details emerge months later. -
The European Angle to the U.S. Terror Threat Robin Simcox | Emily Dyer
AL-QAEDA IN THE UNITED STATES THE EUROPEAN ANGLE TO THE U.S. TERROR THREAT Robin Simcox | Emily Dyer THE EUROPEAN ANGLE TO THE U.S. TERROR THREAT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Nineteen individuals (11% of the overall total) who committed al-Qaeda related offenses (AQROs) in the U.S. between 1997 and 2011 were either European citizens or had previously lived in Europe. • The threat to America from those linked to Europe has remained reasonably constant – with European- linked individuals committing AQROs in ten of the fifteen years studied. • The majority (63%) of the nineteen European-linked individuals were unemployed, including all individuals who committed AQROs between 1998 and 2001, and from 2007 onwards. • 42% of individuals had some level of college education. Half of these individuals committed an AQRO between 1998 and 2001, while the remaining two individuals committed offenses in 2009. • 16% of offenders with European links were converts to Islam. Between 1998 and 2001, and between 2003 and 2009, there were no offenses committed by European-linked converts. • Over two thirds (68%) of European-linked offenders had received terrorist training, primarily in Afghanistan. However, nine of the ten individuals who had received training in Afghanistan committed their AQRO before 2002. Only one individual committed an AQRO afterwards (Oussama Kassir, whose charges were filed in 2006). • Among all trained individuals, 92% committed an AQRO between 1998 and 2006. • 16% of individuals had combat experience. However, there were no European-linked individuals with combat experience who committed an AQRO after 2005. • Active Participants – individuals who committed or were imminently about to commit acts of terrorism, or were formal members of al-Qaeda – committed thirteen AQROs (62%). -
Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber
Terrorism and Political Violence ISSN: 0954-6553 (Print) 1556-1836 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/ftpv20 Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber Simon Perry & Badi Hasisi To cite this article: Simon Perry & Badi Hasisi (2015) Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber, Terrorism and Political Violence, 27:1, 53-80, DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2014.962991 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2014.962991 Published online: 09 Dec 2014. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 695 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=ftpv20 Download by: [College of Wooster] Date: 08 October 2015, At: 08:13 Terrorism and Political Violence, 27:53–80, 2015 Copyright # Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0954-6553 print=1556-1836 online DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2014.962991 Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber SIMON PERRY AND BADI HASISI Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel Suicide terrorism is the most violent and horrifying form of terrorism in the world today. This kind of terrorism causes many fatalities and can throw an entire nation into a state of panic. We usually attribute this kind of terrorism to altruistic motiv- ation, assuming that bombers are willing to sacrifice themselves for a higher cause. The current study uses the criminological theory of Rational Choice to analyze the motivation of jihadist suicide terrorism. By reviewing the religious, personal, and social incentives, we demonstrate that even those who kill themselves in suicide attacks, which are seemingly examples of irrational or altruistic behavior, do so while considering future, self-gratifying benefits. -
The Battle for Pakistan
ebooksall.com ebooksall.com ebooksall.com SHUJA NAWAZ THE BATTLE F OR PAKISTAN The Bitter US Friendship and a Tough Neighbourhood PENGUIN BOOKS ebooksall.com Contents Important Milestones 2007–19 Abbreviations and Acronyms Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance 1. The Revenge of Democracy? 2. Friends or Frenemies? 3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year! 4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali 5. Internal Battles 6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance 7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship 8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap? 9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More 10. Standing in the Right Corner 11. Transforming the Pakistan Army 12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma 13. Choices Footnotes Important Milestones 2007–19 Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance 1. The Revenge of Democracy? 2. Friends or Frenemies? 3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year! 4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali 5. Internal Battles 6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance 7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship 8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap? 9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More 10. Standing in the Right Corner 11. Transforming the Pakistan Army 12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma 13. Choices Select Bibliography ebooksall.com Acknowledgements Follow Penguin Copyright ebooksall.com Advance Praise for the Book ‘An intriguing, comprehensive and compassionate analysis of the dysfunctional relationship between the United States and Pakistan by the premier expert on the Pakistan Army. Shuja Nawaz exposes the misconceptions and contradictions on both sides of one of the most crucial bilateral relations in the world’ —BRUCE RIEDEL, senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, and author of Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad ‘A superb, thoroughly researched account of the complex dynamics that have defined the internal and external realities of Pakistan over the past dozen years. -
Digest of Terrorist Cases
back to navigation page Vienna International Centre, PO Box 500, 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel.: (+43-1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43-1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org Digest of Terrorist Cases United Nations publication Printed in Austria *0986635*V.09-86635—March 2010—500 UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME Vienna Digest of Terrorist Cases UNITED NATIONS New York, 2010 This publication is dedicated to victims of terrorist acts worldwide © United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, January 2010. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This publication has not been formally edited. Publishing production: UNOV/DM/CMS/EPLS/Electronic Publishing Unit. “Terrorists may exploit vulnerabilities and grievances to breed extremism at the local level, but they can quickly connect with others at the international level. Similarly, the struggle against terrorism requires us to share experiences and best practices at the global level.” “The UN system has a vital contribution to make in all the relevant areas— from promoting the rule of law and effective criminal justice systems to ensuring countries have the means to counter the financing of terrorism; from strengthening capacity to prevent nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological materials from falling into the -
Pakistan Still Searching for Long-Term Imprisonment
PAKISTAN STILL SEARCHING FOR LONG- TERM IMPRISONMENT SITE FOR AFRIDI After a “trial” that was strangely held in Bara, in the Khyber Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan, Dr. Shakeel Afridi is now being held in the central jail in Peshawar in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Despite the fact that most were under the belief that Afridi was being tried on treason charges for his cooperation with the CIA in developing intelligence that lead to the killing of Osama bin Laden, we learned after the trial that he had in fact been convicted of aiding the Lashkar-e-Islam terrorist group. The actions for which he was convicted do appear to have taken place with the Khyber Agency, providing at least a justification for the trial’s venue. As Time reported, there is concern for Afridi’s safety in the Peshawar jail: Meanwhile, there is concern about Afridi’s safety. In a phone interview with TIME, Mohammand of the lawyers forum explains that Afridi is being kept in complete isolation and has yet to speak to anyone — including his legal counsel or family. “We actually have no idea where he is. He could be in jail; he could be in a foreign country; he could be anywhere.” It is most likely, however, that Afridi is being held in Peshawar’s central jail. “We have requested the federal government to move Dr. Shakeel Afridi from Peshawar to another jail. We fear he could be attacked,” Mian Iftikhar Hussain, information minister for the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, told journalists on May 30. -
Policing Urban Violence in Pakistan
Policing Urban Violence in Pakistan Asia Report N°255 | 23 January 2014 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 [email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. Peshawar: The Militant Gateway ..................................................................................... 3 A. Demographics, Geography and Security ................................................................... 3 B. Post-9/11 KPK ............................................................................................................ 5 C. The Taliban and Peshawar ......................................................................................... 6 D. The Sectarian Dimension ........................................................................................... 9 E. Peshawar’s No-Man’s Land ....................................................................................... 11 F. KPK’s Policy Response ............................................................................................... 12 III. Quetta: A Dangerous Junction ........................................................................................