MAY 2021

A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19

Just Transition Initiative A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 2 © CSISandCIF, 2021. source andcopyrightholder isgiven. mercial products provided orservices, thatappropriate acknowledgmentofCSIS/CIFasthe CIF encourages theuse,reproduction anddisseminationofthistextforuseinnon-com csis.org |climateinvestmentfunds.org © CSISandCIF2021.Allrightsreserved. ly orindi­ ness ofitscontents,andshallnotbeliableforlossordamagethatmayoccasioneddirect correct, theCIFandWorld Bankdonottakeresponsibilityfortheaccuracy orcomplete have beenmadeto ensurethatthecontentsofthispublicationarefactually sonable efforts views ex­ from theClimateInvestmentFunds; ismadepossiblebysupport however,This report the solely thoseoftheauthor(s). views, positions,andconclusionsexpressedinthispublicationshouldbeunderstood to be andnonproprietary. CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions.Accordingly,all nonpartisan private, tax-exemptinstitutionfocusingoninternationalpublic policyissues.Itsresearch is isproduced bytheCenterforStrategicThis report andInternationalStudies(CSIS).CSISisa Ward (CIF),JosephDickman (CIF),andAbhishekBhaskar(CIF). (CIF),NehaSharmaSandeepPai (CSIS),Aaron AtteridgeMafalda Duarte (CIF),Mike This studyandframework weremadepossiblewithstrategic inputfrom Nikos Tsafos (CSIS), Acknowledgments (CSIS), andRahulMadhusudanan(CIF). Lead authorsforthisstudyareBenCahill(CSIS),HughSearight(CIF),MaryMargaretAllen the CenterforStrategic andInternationalStudies(CSIS)ClimateInvestmentFunds (CIF). This publicationwasproduced bytheJust Transition Initiativeteam,acollaboration between About theAuthors rectly through theuseof,orreliance on,thecontentsofthispublication. pressed donotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheCIForWorld Bank.Whilerea - - - - 3 The Case for a Just Green

V I D - 1 9 Recovery Y F R O M C E R V

he world is responding to an unprecedented health, social, and economic emergency. At the

T G R E N C O time of publication, over three million lives have been lost due to the coronavirus pandem- ic.1 Societies have been severely disrupted—both from the health impacts and the pandem- A J U S T ic-induced recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that global output declined about three times as much as in the 2007–08 global financial crisis, in half the time.2 The World Bank estimates that Covid-19 could push up to 100 million people into extreme poverty. 3

In response, governments have rolled out emergency measures to bolster health systems and create supportive conditions to maintain livelihoods and jobs for those hit hardest. The IMF re- ports that as of March 2021, governments around the world had introduced fiscal measures and liquidity support totaling more than $16 trillion.4 The majority of these fiscal responses have been emergency measures and stabilization spending, as opposed to recovery spending that has a longer-term impact.5

However, the Covid-19 recovery window offers a rare opportunity to structurally transform economies and accelerate the green transition. There is renewed openness to large-scale pub- lic investment as governments seek to rebuild their economies and boost long-term growth potential. At the same time, the Covid-19 crisis has revealed the depth of inequality within and among countries, suggesting the need for policies that can create new sources of growth while also advancing equity and justice.

There is a risk that if the lessons from previous crises are not applied, history will repeat itself and recovery spending will neither accelerate decarbonization nor tackle inequality. Some estimates suggest that around 16 percent of global stimulus measures following the 2007–08 financial crisis supported green initiatives.6 While there was a 1.4 percent decrease in global emissions that was 4 observed in 2009 as a result of the economic downturn, the global stimulus contributed to a 5.1 percent rebound in global emissions in 2010—more than offsetting the original decrease.7 Then-re- cord levels of public spending also failed to avert or remedy persistent structural inequalities. V I D - 1 9 Recovery spending patterns over the past year raise similar concerns, as most recovery pack- ages are failing to sufficiently emphasize decarbonization. The United Nations Environment

Y F R O M C Program (UNEP) estimates that of the spending announced across the fifty largest countries E R V in 2020, 13 percent of overall spending was directed toward long-term recovery type mea- sures, of which only 18 percent was directed toward green recovery initiatives, mostly in a small group of wealthy countries.8

T G R E N C O The stakes are high, and the opportunities are significant for delivering a green recovery from Covid-19 that addresses underlying injustices and builds resilience amongst vulnerable A J U S groups for future transitions and shocks. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that investments in clean, sustainable infrastructure can be one of the most effective ways to boost short-term employment and sustain long-term socio-economic activities while creating quality jobs.9 Conversely, directing recovery funds to high-carbon businesses and fossil fuels risks locking in harmful emissions and will inevitably make such investments more expensive and disruptive to reverse and replace. This sentiment is encapsulated in government commit- ments to “Green Recoveries” and “Building Back Better.”

A short-term focus on policies that support health care spending and targeted support to affected households and firms is critical. Following the immediate response effort, it is im- perative that focus shifts to rebuilding in ways that deliver greater justice and social equity alongside accelerated decarbonization. Some of the options available to governments include investing in green infrastructure to help mitigate climate change, strengthening social assis- tance and social insurance to arrest rising inequality, introducing initiatives to boost produc- tive capacity, and resolving debt overhangs.10

This paper focuses on whether green recovery measures are also supporting a just transition, or at least the elements of a just transition. We provide an analytical framework to examine green stimulus measures from a just transition perspective. We apply the framework to inter- ventions in different countries and offer initial insights on how recovery measures can acceler- ate decarbonization while enhancing equity.

“Following the immediate response effort, it is impera- tive that focus shifts to rebuilding in ways that deliver greater justice and social equity alongside accelerated decarbonization.” 5 Elements of a Just Green Recovery Examining green recovery interventions through the lens of a just transition can help assess

V I D - 1 9 whether systemic inequalities are being addressed, and which recovery policies can best miti- gate losses and distribute gains fairly.

The Just Transition Initiative has developed a framework to help analyze the key dimensions Y F R O M C

E R of just transitions and support more transformative and inclusive approaches to addressing V climate change.11 The framework emphasizes the importance of distributional impacts of climate action or the fair allocation of the benefits and harms associated with transitions, as well as social inclusion, or the recognition of marginalized groups through their participation

T G R E N C O and influence in decisionmaking processes.

A J U S A deep and complex transformation is required to achieve both distributive justice and social inclusion goals in responding to the urgent challenges of climate change. This may require fundamental changes to existing social and economic systems that are potentially incompati- ble with sustainable development and social equity. As such, the framework also emphasizes a cross-cutting element of transformative intent, or the ambition to address structural inequal- ity and reshape the social and economic status quo to achieve a just transition.

Framework for Just Transitions

oerent II arro Transition I stes ane Intention: Transformation Inclusive but focused approach Inclusive process and broad impact

Social nclusion recognizes, includes, and empowers a diverse Social nclusion recognizes, includes, and empowers a diverse range of stakeholders throughout transition processes. range of stakeholders throughout transition processes.

istributional mpacts considers a narrow range of impacts for istributional mpacts considers a broad range of impacts specific sectors and stakeholders. across sectors and stakeholders.

ntention seeks transformation through inclusive and ntention seeks transformation through the overhaul of systems empowering processes. incompatible with sustainable development and social equity. oia Inusion III Inreenta eor I Toon Transition Less inclusive and focused approach Less inclusive process but broad impact

Social nclusion recognizes and includes select stakeholders in Social nclusion recognizes and includes select stakeholders in aspects of the transition process. aspects of the transition process.

istributional mpacts considers a narrow range of impacts for istributional mpacts considers a broad range of impacts specific sectors and stakeholders. across sectors and stakeholders.

ntention seeks reform via changes within existing social and ntention seeks transformation through consideration of a broad economic systems. range of distributional impacts. artiiation Intention: Reform ouse istriutiona Iats ansive Intention: Reform Intention: Transformation A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 6 tion, and storage (CCUS) in industrial clusters intargetedareas. wind projects. production target and to enablealocal content requirement of 60 percent in future offshore its offshore wind communities to and infrastructure support innorthern in investment in ports have beenineconomicdeclinefordecades. The government plans £160 million ($194 million) These regionsare the UnitedKingdom’s and traditional oil and gas and industrialheartlands East,and ing andbattery production,Teesside. prioritizingregionssuch as Scotland, the North for decades. spending toward areas that have experienced de-industrialization and employment challenges a Green Industrial Revolution ufacturing capacityandtyingtheseplans to itsrenewableenergytargets. Its the suchas Some countriesareprioritizingplace-basedinvestment in theirgreenrecovery efforts, capital to areasimpactedthemost. nesses to role promote to economicgrowth—has playasameansofchanneling animportant place-based investment losses from thetransition cansometimes beconcentrated geographically. Inthesesituations, While thegainsfrom thetransition to agreeneconomymaybewidelydistributed,acute Distributional Impacts mative approach and ambitions.” from the decisionmakingprocess, orlackatransfor uneven benefits and costs, exclude important voices action, there isariskthat recovery planswillcreate “When policymakers have asingularfocus onrapid framework areevident inglobalCovid-19 greenrecovery spending. We highlightsomeexamplesofhowthethreeprinciplesajusttransition presentedinour voices from thedecisionmakingprocess, orlackatransformative approach andambitions. there isariskthatrecovery planswillcreateuneven benefitsandcosts,exclude important when designingrecovery plans.Butwhenpolicymakershave asingularfocusonrapid action, process to advance ajustgreenrecovery from Covid-19. For example,speedisoftheessence along withthecross-cutting elementoftransformative intent,canguidethepolicymaking The twodimensionsintheframework, namelydistributionalimpactsandsocialinclusion,

United Kingdom 12 It will offer directinvestmentsandincentives to expandcleanenergy manufactur 13 It plans to invest up to £1 billion ($1.2 billion) to establishcarboncapture, utiliza

(Table 1 —or investmentinregionsasopposedto peopleorindividualbusi , announced in November 2020, aims to channel green recovery ) , which is channeling funds toward certain regions to boost man , which ischanneling funds toward certain 14

Ten Point Plan for Ten Point Planfor - - - - - A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 7 home solarunits.Beneficiaries wereselectedbasedonhouseholdwealth, populationdensity, Lagos Stategovernment developed households forfree adata-drivenprocess to targetcertain holds and25millionNigerians wholackaccessto thenationalgrid. ment of$619millionto its SolarHomesSystemsProject to connect upto fivemillionhouse nents instimuluspackagesfrom middle- orlow-incomecountries. Economic SustainabilityPlan,whichincludesoneofthelargestrenewableenergy compo its recovery plan. have of accessto cleancookingfuelsortechnologies, isincreasingequitableaccessaspart Nigeria, whereanestimated85millionpeoplelack electricityaccessand176milliondonot ment incleanenergyaccessinitiatives. toclimate change,andgenerating boostinvest arean opportunity growth. Recovery efforts able energyservices Inadequate accessto isanareaofgreatinequityglobally. energyservices who takeonthesetypicallylow-skill,low-wagejobs. However, itwillnotnecessarilyaddresslonger-termemploymentprospects fortheworkers migration causedbyurbanjoblosses,andshouldenhanceclimateresilience. laborsurplusinsettingswithrelativelylimiteddisease transmission,a short-term addresses gram isexpectedto hit50milliontreesplantedthisyear. been plantedintheprovince ofPunjabsincetheprogram expansion,andthefive-yearpro as forestprotection guardsorforestfirefighters. create atleast63,000jobs,includingforsettingupnurseries,plantingsaplings,andserving areas, withafocusonhiringwomenandmigrant dailyworkers. The program isexpectedto unemployed workersfrom locked-downcities,manyofthenewjobsarebeingcreatedin rural employmentresponseto thepandemic.Givenlargeruralas ashort-term migration of minister exemptedtheprogram from lockdownmeasuresinApril2020andusedthisprogram mi in2018,withatotal outlayofRs125billion(approximately $760million).Pakistan’s prime green jobs,andadvance genderempowerment,wasexpandedasthe10Billion Tree Tsuna campaign, whichwasoriginallylaunchedin2014to develop sustainable forestry,generate carbon sequestration andecosystemresilience.Pakistan’s successfulBillion Tree Tsunami thatprovideincluding interventions environmental, social,andeconomicbenefitssuchas There areexamplesofgreenrecovery measureswithafocusonjobsinvarious sectors, wages, respectforworkers’rights,andsocialprotection). dynamics inthelabormarket,andqualityofjobs(underpinnedbyprovisions forsafework,fair industriesandregionsofaccelerated decarbonization,skillstransferability,certain gender need to carefullyconsiderdistributionalimpacts,includingthepotentialoutsizedimpactson clear thatgreenrecovery measuresalsoneedto prioritizejobs.However, thesemeasureswill Generating employment 18 InJuly2020,Nigeriaapproved the23trillionNaira ($5.9billion)Nigerian is critical to health, education, poverty reduction, buildingresilienceto iscriticalto health,education,poverty hasbeenamajorfocusofrecovery andstimulusto dateasitis

16 About30millionindigenoussaplingshave 17 15 The program effectivelyabsorbs 19 20 This involves acommit As part ofthisplan, the Aspart Access to sustain

------A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 8 justice organizations;community groups” andothers. tative mannerbyseeking the“viewsofState,local,and Tribal officials;unions;environmental istration the revitalization offossilfuelreliantcommunitiesina consul alsoaimsto support consultations withabroad stakeholderbaseonclimaterelatedmatters. January 27WhiteHouseexecutiveorderonclimate policyestablishedataskforce to support the UnitedStates,whichisemphasizinganinclusive recovery andalow-carbontransition. A communities, includingenergycommunities. member countries’workto empowerregionalandlocal blies across theEUwhilesupporting the ofagreenrecovery. fund, hasastrong focusonsocialinclusionaspart The the recovery process. The There areotherexamplesofinitiativeswithstrong elementsofsocialinclusionthatsupport funders; andbestwaysto fundandfinanceinfrastructure. infrastructure needsandlong-termvision;coordination amonginfrastructure ownersand ment isseekinginputonthefollowingthreeprioritiesbeforedeterminingnextsteps:Canada Indigenous peoples,provinces, territories, municipalities, andotherstakeholders. The govern built environment foranet-zero emissionsfutureandislargelybasedoninputfrom thepublic, the CanadaWeWant for2050 ment forstakeholderengagementinitsfirst-ever nationalinfrastructure assessment, surrounding theseprocesses arestilltakingshape, Canadahasbegunto outlineitscommit ture- andhealth-relatedprojects outlinedinits ofco-development withIndigenouspeoplesontheinfrastruchas emphasizedtheimportance Canada plansto engageinstakeholderconsultationsasit implementsitsrecovery plansand plans withaslightlylongertimehorizon. are usefulexamplesofinclusiveprocesses andprinciplesthatarehelpingto shaperecovery understandable, giventheurgencyofemergencyresponsesandstimulusspending.Still,there cymakers designedgreenrecovery planswithaneyetoward greaterinclusiveness. This is transition discourseisrelativelywelldeveloped, thereis limitedevidence overall thatpoli are someexamplesofinclusivestrategies,indeveloped countrieswherethejust particularly inthedecisionmakingprocess.such groups Whilethere areallowedmeaningfulparticipation mum, thattheinterestsandvalues ofgroups vulnerable to impactsarerecognizedandthat range ofstakeholdersthroughout recovery ortransition processes. This implies,atamini An expansiveapproach to socialinclusionrecognizes,includes,andempowersadiverse Social Inclusion government workedwithcommunityleaders,church officials,imams,andlocalpharmacists. ofhouseholdsinthearealivingoff-grid. and theproportion To helpidentifyhouseholds,the European GreenDeal looksto buildonexistingcitizens’dialogues andcitizens’assem European GreenDeal . The assessmentaimsto identifyneedsandprioritiesofthe 23 Similarly,promising stepshave beentakenin Fall Economic Statement , together with 25 The Interagency Working Group on NextGenerationEU . 24 22 The currentadmin Whilethedetails Climate Pact recovery Building - in ------’s 21 - A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 9 the UnitedKingdomare multifaceted. forThe deindustrialization that has been underway energy transition compared with the UnitedKingdom. duction and employment, and there are fewerworkers and communities at risk in a clean market. SouthKorea is highly dependenton fossil fuels but haslimited domestic pro and expanding socialprotections to preemptively address challenges ofachanging labor recovery centersaround preparing itsworkforce forgreenanddigital jobs of the future As a highly urbanized statewithastrong industrial base,SouthKorea’s notion of green of responses(Tables 1and2). Kingdom andSouthKorea recovery packagesshowshowdifferingcontextsshapethenature the low-carbontransition context.Acomparisonofthejusttransition elementsintheUnited pendent oneachcountry’s respectiveenvironmental, social,andeconomiccontext—including It is,however, to notethatdefininga“transformative important justtransition” ishighlyde tious climate policies down the line.” in vulnerable areas and garner more for support ambi gather valuable advice from workers and communities “A well-executed program to solicitcitizeninputcould and inclusivesocialdevelopment. to makeprogress towardmissing anopportunity fundamentallyreshapingclimatepriorities climate challengeandaddresstheobjectivesoutlinedabove. Byandlarge,policymakersare fromback better” Covid-19 hasyet to catalyzethelarge-scaleresponsesneeded to meet the sive andfairoutcomesthataddresspreexistingstructural inequalities. The impulseto “build sociallyinclu bonization through deepandfundamentalsystemicchangewhilesupporting We findlimited evidence oftransformative recoveryto accelerate approaches orefforts decar Transformative Intent forambitiousclimatepoliciesdowntheline. garner moresupport input couldgathervaluable advicefrom workersandcommunities invulnerable areasand rating inputinaninclusivemanner, wesuggestthatawell-executedprogram to solicitcitizen While itwilltaketimeto reflectonhoweffectivethesepoliciesandprograms wereinincorpo economic development andplanning. a seriesoftown hallmeetingsto improve communityengagementandgatherlocalideasfor Coal andPower PlantCommunitiesandEconomic Revitalization hasalsopromised to hold 26 27 The just transition challenges in ------10 A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 increase the complexityof the response in developing countries. objectives alsovary. ulus or to adjust preexisting stimulus packages. Their climateambitions and other policy conditions, fiscal space, andcapacityto incorporate climateconsiderations in fiscal stim among countries copingwiththe pandemic. Governments vary intheirmacroeconomic Assessments of a just green recovery must recognize the wide variation in capacity Kingdom’s Covid-19 recovery plans. regions and industries. The socialimplications of the transition are higherfor the United deremployment, and the shift away from fossilfuels also has thepotentialto harmcertain decades has left manyregionsof the countrystruggling with lagging economies and un new wildlife habitats and woodlands. new wildlifehabitatsand woodlands. ment agencies,and businesses to restore protected sites to favorable conditionsand create or restore programs. to bringtogether Inlanduse,theNatureRecovery govern conservationists, Networkisaneffort more stakeholder engagementandpublic outreach on climatepolicyandlocallytargetedgreenrecovery tween citizen input and government strategies to isdebatableinsomecases. do There is acleareffort least nine smaller citizens’assemblies have been held across thecountry, although thedirectlinkbe zens’ climatejuries” to garner viewson climate priorities,jobsand fairness, and nature andlanduse. At The United Kingdom has also made some innovative moves in sector-specific solutionsandfinancial innovations. roundtablesgreen bond in2021. and dialogue to promote The Green Finance Institute convenes expert Humber plans). Intermsof of the ZeroWest, andtheHumber and Carbon Teesside regions (includingtheH2H Saltend scheme, part is allocating£171 million ($241 million)to decarbonizeindustry in areas including Scotland,theNorth training and launching a GreenJobs Taskforce to work with labor unions, universities, and other actors to develop expansion, enablingup to 60 percent local content requirementfor offshore wind. The government is also offshore wind communities to and infrastructure support innorthern ($225 million)ininvestment in ports It plans £160 million economically struggling regions, such as formerindustrial or fossil fuel heartlands. to buildmanufacturingcapacity in renewable energy and batteries in recovery targets,includingefforts The United Kingdom is beginning to implement to 250,000 jobs and will position thecountry to meet its 2050 net-zero target. £36 billion($49.6 billion) in private investment. The government believes the plan could helpto create up Industrial Revolution ber 2020, it announced a significant package ofgreen recovery funds. The The United Kingdom has recordedoneoftheworld’s largestfiscalresponses to Covid-19, and in Novem Table 1.United Kingdom:Just Recovery Spending skills development includes £12 billion($16.5 billion) indirect government investment meant to unlock 28 In the next section, we examine how someoftheseconstraints mobilizing climatefinance plans. To encourage decarbonization place-based investment strategies , thegovernment plansto issue its first sovereign stakeholder engagement , the Industrial Decarbonization fund , theIndustrialDecarbonizationfund Ten Point Plan for a Green Ten Point Plan foraGreen alongside its green alongside its green , suchas“citi ------A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 11 larger than forthe same period oftheglobalfinancialcrisis. outflowsfrom emergingmarkets wereaboutUS$100billion—morethanthree times portfolio deteriorating trade andfinancial environment. For instance,betweenJanuaryandMarch 2020, In additionto thehealthcrisis,emergingmarketsand developing countriesarebeinghitbya reduction. poverty poorest 63 countries declined 3.5 percent in2020, erasing three to four years of progress in is on the rise for the first timesince the 1998 Asianfinancialcrisis. devastating for developing countries. Global poverty The pandemic has been particularly Challenges Facing Developing Countries locations arebeingstrategically targetedfor reasons beyond their natural resource potential. a brief mention offeasibilitystudiesfor offshore wind farm locations, butitis not apparent whether these (e.g., greenmobility, digital managementof renewable energy, platform for offshorewind farm).” There is and other traditional their adjustmentto therenewableenergysector sources of energy by supporting tion willbeensured for thoseregionsthatforesee difficulties coming from areduceduse ofcoal power of ajusttransition, the In recognitionofthe importance these measures do not appearespeciallytargeted. digital economy. While some consideration is given to and investments, the accessibility ofthese services ital capacity will strengthen the onlineeducation capacity of universities and job training institutions,aswell the by employment insurance as they seek new opportunities. Various investments under the Digital New Deal within relevant fields, and improve theJobSearch Promotion Scheme to better help those not covered will establish a “future-oriented jobtraining system,” support institutions that provide thedigitaland green economy,and reduce the “digital gap”in society. The government portunities in strategy. The treasurywill invest $3.6 billion in human resources to nurture talent, provide employment op There isasignificantemphasison well as green economy. These investments will to provide protection againsteconomicshocksand changes resultingfrom thetransition to a digital and green industries. Korea also aims to enhance social safety systems, with $20.1 billionfrom the treasury structure and restore ecosystems, promote low-carbonand decentralized energy, and fosterinnovation in itive edgeininformation and communicationtechnology,aswell a Green NewDeal to “green” infra well as its 2050 carbon neutrality pledge. ItincludesaDigitalNewDeal to leverage South Korea’s compet SouthKorea’sport recovery from thepandemic and its transition toward adigital and greeneconomy,as The Table 2.SouthKorea: Just Recovery Spending Korean New Deal: NationalStrategy foraGreat Transformation basic livelihood security benefits of SMEs and microbusiness, many of which are struggling with theaccelerated transition to a capacity building andskillsdevelopment expand employment insurance . Korean NewDeal 30 , introduced inJuly 2020, aimsto sup

Currency depreciations, a signifi andworker’s compensation, as briefly statesthat “a fairtransi across Korea’s three-pronged 29 GDPpercapitainthe professional training - dig ------12 A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 more thanninetypercent oftheregion’s businessesareinformal. oping countries. informal economyforlivelihoods, andtheirshareintheworkforce iseven higherinthedevel approaches canbechallengingonmultiplefronts. Anestimatedtwo billionpeoplerelyonthe in­ percentage ofworkersengagedintheinformal sector, institutionalcapacityconstraints, and The integration ofjusttransition approaches ischallengingonmultiple fronts. Withalarge ed into recovery planning. that equity and justice considerationstries make it even are fullyintegrat moreimportant impacts and the expectedlong tailforthe recovery in developingdisproportionate coun by the highly uneven nature of global vaccine distribution. is compounded further worsening of inequality and vulnerabilities—even after a vaccine is available globally and vulnerable segments of the population. degraded affected women, children, and other health outcomes have disproportionately nations andwithin them. The highunemployment,foodinsecurity,lost schooling, and The pandemichaslaidbare the differentiated impacts caused by inequality, both between low-income countries. in upper-middle-incomecountries,andonly 2.5 percent for all lower-middle-income and lion byMay2020, of which 88 percent was in high-income countries,around 9.5 percent tional Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that the global fiscal stimulus was at $10 tril packages thatdeveloping country governments have been able to commit. The Interna The keydifference between the responses has been the comparatively limited size of the tourism, andagriculture.portation, measures. affected businessesthrough avariety of andsupport cash-transfers andin-kind support, packages to deal with the health emergency, prop up vulnerable households through Similar to developed economies, mostdeveloping countries quickly adoptedfiscal existing stimulus packages.” mate considerations infiscal stimulus or to adjust pre tions, fiscalspace, and capacity to incorporate cli “Governments vary intheir macroeconomic condi risk of debtdistresshighlightthatmany countries are likelyto have a challenging timeahead. cant rise in spread, a potential 40 percent drop in foreign direct investment, and increased inthe complete registriesofcitizens,reachingthemost vulnerable andintegrating justtransition 32 Countries also aimed to support their most exposed sectors such astrans Countries also aimed to support 36 InSouthAsia,eightypercent ofworkersengageininformalactivities,and 33

34 The greatest long-termrisk to development is a

37 Informalityoftenmeans a 35 - -

The - - - - 31 - - -

13 A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 more justandequitableoutcomes. Below aresomebriefinsightswhichcanhelpensurethatgreenrecovery spendingcandeliver Policy InsightsforaJustGreen Recovery justice and inclusivity. programs canhelp support that prioritize social institutions, NGOs, andcivilsocietyparticipants, tainable Development and theParis Agreement. adversely impacttheimplementationof key global agreements such as the2030 Agendafor Sus Failure bynational policymakers to take acoordinatedapproach could create setbacks that will tions indeveloping countriesiscomparatively limited,andmoreworkisneededinthisarea. be contrasting. Wehave alsofoundthattheextentofpublicdiscourserelatedto greentransi and developed countriesareverydifferent,andthus,theirrespectiveresponsemeasurescan to acknowledgethatthebaselineconditionsofdevelopinglow-carbon future.Itisimportant to adoptabalancedapproach reduction,andaninclusive thatconsidersrecovery, poverty To effec ing conditions,andlackofaccessto finance. lack ofsocialprotection includingunemploymentinsurance, rightsatworkanddecent 3. 2. 1. innovation plansforlonger-termemployment inasustainableeconomy.Working with er associationsworkwithgovernments to alignreskilling programs withinvestmentand to deploylaborsurplusinto productive workinthe future,especiallyifworkerandemploy those thatdealwithpublichealthandsocialwelfare). This canimprove acountry’s ability close coordinationwithrelevant ministries andlocalregionalgovernments (including along withreskillingefforts Plan, maintain,andfunda who arevulnerable to climatechangeandanyadverseeffects of greentransitions. to workersandcommunities, especiallythose addressstructural inequalityandsupport measures shoulddrive opportunities Structure responsesthat be structuredto meetindividualcountryenvironmental, social,andeconomictargets. ery pathwaysoffersimilarifnotbettergrowth andemploymentprospects andcanlikely thereby creatingtransition challengesforcommunitiesdowntheroad. Manygreenrecov At aminimum, ment invarious low-carbonsectors. and governments canleverage existing tools to modelpotentialjob creation from invest local stakeholderscanhelp to provide moreaccurate skillsandeducationassessments, tively addressthevarious complexitiesfacingdeveloping nations,itisimperative thathave multiplebenefits, rather thanasseparate priorities.Integrated avoid investmentsandincentivesthatlockinfossilfueldependency

ambitious, socially inclusive and equitable interventions thatseek ambitious, sociallyinclusiveandequitableinterventions address ecological,social,andeconomicissuesasintegrated pipeline ofplace-basedsustainableinfrastructure projects to support theirimplementation. to support 40 38 39

International support, including from multilateral Internationalsupport,

This needsto bedonein , ------14 A JUST GREEN RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. in vulnerable areas and garner more support forambitiousclimateactionsthatare toin vulnerable be areasandgarnermoresupport plans. Invitingcitizeninputcouldgathervaluable advicefrom workersandcommunities tables, citizendialogues,andnetworksto receiveinputandcommunicategreenrecovery transparent. Governments canleverage round theirconvening powerto organizeexpert ty andduration ofjobs. tional justice.Policymakers canfallinto thetrap offocusingonquantityrather thanquali These essentialworkers’rightscanhelpto ensuregreatersocialinclusionanddistribu collective bargainingrightsaresomeofthekeyguidingprinciplesforajusttransition. ILO suggeststhatsocialdialoguebetweenunions,employers,andgovernment, as wellas and industries. additional educationastheyseekto acquireskillsand qualifications to enternewsectors formaltraining,stand theirneedsandhelpdisplacedworkersaccessadvisoryservices, or develop programs thatproactively engagecommunities likelyto beaffectedto under that greentransitions arelikelyto createdistributionalimpactsto jobsandcommunities, shocks relatedto climatechangeandtheactionstakento respondto it.Acknowledging nomic impactsofthepandemic Invest distributional justiceinmind. socialprotection programsin supporting thataredesignedwithfairness,inclusivity,and and multilateral have acriticalrole institutions,NGOs,andcivilsocietyparticipants to play contexts. In developing countries, where fiscal and capacity constraints are acute, bilateral ments to to provide thoseintheinformalsector, support especiallyindeveloping country infuturecrisesandmakeiteasierforgovernreduce theneedfortargetedinterventions social safetynetsandinfrastructure willincreasecommunity-level resilience,help most vulnerable to futureshocks,includingonesrelatedto climatechange.Stronger ambitious long-termclimatetargets. better ensurethatrecovery initiativesaretimely,inclusive,andfair—butalsoalignedwith Development provide goodentrypoints. Agreement, theSendaiFramework, Aichitargets,andthe2030AgendaforSustainable in various globalcompactsandcorrespondingnationalcommitments,such astheParis areas. Applyingthejusttransition framework to theexistinglistofprioritiesenshrined and development plans Governments can accelerated through greenrecovery measures. Prioritize stakeholderengagement Ensure jobquality,laborstandards,andrightsforworkers Strengthen socialsafetynets

in developing afuture-orientedworkforce draw onandintegrate justtransition principlesinto existingclimate , channelingrecovery fundstoward existingtargetsandpriority through those inclusive,consultative processes to support and betterprepareforstructural changesandeconomic to makestimulusdecisionmaking moreequitableand 41 Bydrawing onexistingplans,governments can to recover from thesocialandeco inthegreenrecovery. The - - 42 -

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