The Parliamentary Conservative Party: the Leadership Elections of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith
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University of Huddersfield Repository Hill, Michael The Parliamentary Conservative Party: The leadership elections of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith Original Citation Hill, Michael (2007) The Parliamentary Conservative Party: The leadership elections of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith. Doctoral thesis, University of Huddersfield. This version is available at http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/741/ The University Repository is a digital collection of the research output of the University, available on Open Access. Copyright and Moral Rights for the items on this site are retained by the individual author and/or other copyright owners. Users may access full items free of charge; copies of full text items generally can be reproduced, displayed or performed and given to third parties in any format or medium for personal research or study, educational or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided: • The authors, title and full bibliographic details is credited in any copy; • A hyperlink and/or URL is included for the original metadata page; and • The content is not changed in any way. For more information, including our policy and submission procedure, please contact the Repository Team at: [email protected]. http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/ The Parliamentary Conservative Party: The Leadership Elections of William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith Michael Hill A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Huddersfield Dedication This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my father, David Leyland Hill. Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisory team: Dr. Timothy Heppell, Professor Brendan Evans and Professor Valerie Bryson for their help, support and guidance. I am also grateful to Dr. David Tyfa and Dr. Jon Blacktop for their assistance and advice with the statistical element of this thesis. I would like to express my gratitude to the Rt. Hon. Francis Maude MP for sharing his views of the 2001 Conservative Party leadership campaign. Finally I would like to thank my partner Corrina Rest and my mother, Pauline Hill, whose support made it possible for me to complete this work. Abstract The aim of this research is to investigate the post1997 Parliamentary Conservative Party, with particular attention placed upon the Conservative Party leadership election of 1997 and 2001. The thesis uses these two leadership elections as a lens which can be utilised to focus upon and analyse the ideological disputations of contemporary British Conservatism. This is done by identifying the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the two leadership elections and then by putting forwards a systemic explanation of the candidates’ support. Three sets of variables are tested. First, the thesis analyses socio-economic variables (i.e. the occupational and educational background of conservative parliamentarians). Second, the research considers the candidates’ support in relation to electoral and political variables (i.e. electoral vulnerability, political insider / outsider status, age and experience). Finally the research will evaluate the candidates’ support with regard to the ideological disposition of the candidates and their supporters. This requires an extensive exploration of the attitudes of Conservative parliamentarians with regard to the dominant ideological divides within contemporary post- Thatcherite Conservatism – economic policy (wet / dry), European policy (europhile / eurosceptic), and social, sexual and moral attitudes (social liberalism / social conservatism). By analysing the patterns of voting in relation to social background, political attributes and ideological disposition the thesis locates and interprets the differing motivational influences on voting behaviour. The thesis argues the ideological disposition of the candidates and their supporters was the crucial factor in both the leadership elections. The final round of the 1997 leadership election was a straight ideological battle between the europhile and eurosceptic wings of the parliamentary Conservative Party. This benefited the eurosceptic William Hague at the expense of the europhile Kenneth Clarke. In 2001 both Clarke and Portillo attracted support from across the ideological spectrum of the parliamentary party, suggesting that a section of the parliamentary party had moved away from ideologically driven voting behaviour. However, Iain Duncan Smith reaching the final ballot was due to the support of an ideologically cohesive group of traditional Thatcherite MPs and indicative of the continued significance of ideology on the direction of the Conservative party. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Rationale 1 1.2 Structure 3 1.3 Conclusion 8 2. Conservatism and the Conservative Party: Ideology and Politics 9 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Ideology 12 2.3 Conservatism 12 2.4 Dispositions of conservatism 13 2.5 Tenets of conservatism 15 2.6 Inherent tensions within conservatism 16 2.7 Strands of conservatism 16 2.71 Paternalism 16 2.72 Libertarian Conservatism 18 2. 73 The New Right 18 2.8 Is conservatism dead? 29 2.9 Structures and Mechanisms of the Conservative Party 21 2.91 The National Association of Conservative and Unionist Associations 21 2.92 Conservative Central Office 22 2.93 The Parliamentary Conservative Party 23 2.94 The Party Leader 24 2.95 The leadership selection process 26 2.96 A fresh future? The Hague reforms 28 2.10 Conclusion 32 3. The Conservative Party Leadership Elections of 1997 & 2001 35 3.1 Introduction 35 3.2 The Resignation of John Major 36 3.3 The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 1997 37 3.31 The candidates 40 3.32 The ballots 43 3.4 The leadership of William Hague 45 3.5 The general election of 2001 and the resignation of William Hague 53 3.6 The leadership election of 2001 53 3.61 The candidates 54 3.62 The ballots 58 3.7 The leadership of Iain Duncan Smith 59 3.8 Conclusion 66 4. The Social Background and Political Attributes of the PCP 69 4.1 Introduction 69 4.2 Social Background 70 i 4.21 Historical Background 70 4.22 Academic work on the PCP and social background 74 4.22.1Education 74 4.22.2 Occupation 82 4.3 Social Background of the PCP 1997 – 2001 83 4.31 Education 83 4.32 Occupation 84 4.33 Gender 88 4.34 Race 90 4.4 Political Attributes 90 4.41 Electoral vulnerability 90 4.42 Age and experience 95 4.43 Career status 98 4.5 Conclusion 99 5 The Ideological Disposition of the PCP 1997 to 2003 102 5.1 Introduction 102 5.2 The ideological composition of the PCP 103 5.3 One-dimensional typologies 104 5.31 Thatcherites 104 5.32 Party Faithful 104 5.33 Populists 105 5.34 Critics 105 5.4 Two-dimensional typologies 105 5.5 Three-dimensional typologies 108 5.6 Factions or tendencies? 110 5.7 Economic Policy 111 5.8 Europe 120 5.9 Morality 128 5.10 The Ideological Composition of the PCP 1997 & 2001 134 5.10.1 Methodology 134 5.10.1.1 Division Lists 135 5.10.1.2 Early Day Motions 135 5.10.1.3 Group Membership 135 5.10.1.4 Public Statements 135 5.10.1.5 Location of MPs 136 5.10.1.6 The Economy 137 5.10.1.7 Europe 138 5.10.1.8 Sexual & Moral Issues 143 5.11 Ideological Disposition of the PCP 1997-2001 (One Dimensional) 141 5.12 Ideological Disposition of the PCP 2001-2005 (One Dimensional) 145 5.13 Ideological Composition of the PCP 1997-2001 (Three Dimensional) 150 5.14 Ideological Composition of the PCP 2001-2005 (Three Dimensional) 153 5.15 Conclusion 156 ii 6. Voting Behaviour in the 1997 and 2001 Conservative Party Leadership Elections: The Impact of Social Background, Political Attributes and Ideological Disposition 161 6.1 Introduction 161 6.2 Methodology 161 6.3 Who voted for whom 163 6.4 Accounting for voting behaviour 167 6.5 Voting behaviour in the 1997 leadership election 168 6.5.1 The socio-economic hypothesis 168 6.5.2 The political characteristics hypothesis 170 6.5.3 The electoral vulnerability hypothesis 173 6.5.4 The economic policy hypothesis 174 6.5.5 The European policy hypothesis 175 6.5.6 The social and moral policy hypothesis 176 6.6 Voting behaviour in the 2001 leadership election 177 6.6.1 The socio-economic hypothesis 178 6.6.2 The political characteristics hypothesis 180 6.6.3 The electoral vulnerability hypothesis 183 6.6.4 The economic policy hypothesis 184 6.6.5 The European policy hypothesis 184 6.6.6 The social and moral policy hypothesis 185 6.7 Conclusion 186 7. Conclusion 190 8. Bibliography 201 Appendix A: Organisation of the Parliamentary Conservative Party 1997-2003 217 The Parliamentary Conservative Party 1997-2001 217 The Parliamentary Conservative Party 2001-2005 221 Shadow Cabinets 1997-2001 223 Shadow Cabinets 1997-2003 230 Appendix B: Chronology of Events 1997-2003 233 Appendix C: Evidence of European Policy Positions 239 Early Day Motions 296 Division Lists 398 Bibliography of public statements 299 Appendix D: Evidence of Social and Moral Policy Positions 303 Early Day Motions 390 Division Lists 400 Bibliography of public statements 401 iii List of Tables 2.1: Linear ideological spectrum 10 2.2: Three-dimensional ideological spectrum 11 2.3: Conservative Party Structure Post 1998 31 3.1: Daily Telegraph / Gallup Conservative leadership poll 1997 42 3.2: Changes in support between rounds, 1997 44 3.3: Monthly Mori polls for main party voting intentions June 1997 to May 2001(%) 52 3.4: Changes in support between rounds, 1997 57 3.5: Popularity of the candidates 58 3.6: Comparison between Kenneth Clarke and Michael Portillo 58 3.7: Comparison between Michael Portillo and Iain Duncan Smith