Documentof The World Bank
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 3841-YU
STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA Public Disclosure Authorized
May 10, 1982
Regional Projects Department Europe, Middle East and North Africa
Public Disclosure Authorized Agriculture III
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. (i)
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS*
US$ 1 Dinars (Din) 43.67840 Din 1 US$ 0.022895 Din 1,000,000 US$ 22,894.61
WEIGHTS AND MEASURES
1 kilogram (kg) 2.20 pounds 1 quintal 100 kilograms I metric ton (m ton) 1,000 kilograms 1 metric ton (m ton) 0.98 long ton 1 millimeter (mm) 0.04 inch 1 centimeter (cm) 0.39 inch 1 meter (m) 1.09 yards 1 kilometer (km) 0.62 mile I hectare (ha) 2.47 acres 1 square meter (m2) 10.76 square feet I square kilometer (km2) 0.384 square mile 1 liter (1) 0.264 gallon 1 cubic meter (m3) 1.31 cubic yards
ABBREVIATIONS
BOAL = Basic Organization of Associated Labor BOCF = Basic Organization of Cooperative Farmers COAL UPI Complex Organization of Associated Labor of the United Agriculture, Marketing and Industry CBO = Cooperative Basic Organizations ICB International Competitive Bidding IWRD = Institute of Water Resources Development LCB = Local Competitive Bidding OCC = Opportunity Cost of Capital OVZ = Basic Self-Managing Community of Interest PAC Project Advisory Committee PBS = Privredna Banka Sarajevo - Udruzena Banka SDK = Social Accounting Service SFRY = Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia SIZ = Self-Managed Water Management Community of Interest for Water Economy SRBH = Socialist Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina W.O. Work Organization W.O.A.E. = Work Organization Agricultural Estate Semberija Semberija
* The Yugoslav Dinar has been floating since July 13, 1973. The currency equivalents given above are those effective on February 15, 1982, which have been used in this report. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (ii)
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HEWRZEGOVINA
Table of Contents
I. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR A. Agriculture in Yugoslavia B. Bank's Role and Agricultural Lending Strategy C. Agricultural Development Issues in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina
II. THE PROJECT AREA A. Description of the Project Area B. Agricultural Situation in the Project Area C. Principal Institutions Participating in the Project
III. THE PROJECT A. Objectives B. Detailed Features C. Description of the Project D. Land Consolidation E. Status of Engineering F. Cost Estimate G. Financing and On-lending H. Procurement and Retroactive Financing I. Implementation Schedule J. Disbursements K. Environmental Impact L. Role of Women
IV. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION A. Land Use, Cropping Pattern, Yields, and Production B. Farm Inputs C. Agricultural Support Services D. On-Farm Agricultural Development
V. PROJECT ORGANIZATION AND IMPLEMENTATION A. The Borrower B. Implementing Agencies and Responsibilities C. Operation and Maintenance D. Accounts and Audits E. Project Monitoring and Completion Reports
VI. MARKETING, FARM INCOME, PROJECT CHARGES AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Marketing Prospects, Processing Requirements and Storage B. Farm Incomes C. Project Charges and Cost Recovery D. Financial Analysis
This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Yugoslavia during October-November 1981, consisting of Messrs. Mahmud H. Tirmazi, Roderic Buller, Barkat Ali (Consultant) and Mesdames Linda Likar and Robin Glantz (Young Professionals).
This document has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ( iii)
Table of Contents (Cont'd)
VII. PROJECT JUSTIFICATION A. Benefits B. Economic Analysis
VIII. SUMMARY OF AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Annexes
Annex 1 ClimatologicalData Annex 2 Data on Pumping Stations Annex 3 Table 1 Operation and MaintenanceEquipment and Experimental Equipment for Field Drains Table 2 AgriculturalEquipment Table 3 AgriculturalResearch and Extension Equipment Annex 4 Table 1 Cost Estimates Table 2 Estimated Schedule of Expenditures Table 3 ProcurementPackages for Constructionand Procurementof Equipment Table 4 Financing Plan Annex 5 Program of Drainage and Reclamation Annex 6 Schedule of Disbursements Annex 7 Cropping Pattern on Arable Land Annex 8 Table 1 Crop Production,Gross Value, and Incremental-Individual Sector Table 2 Crop Production,Gross Value, and Incremental-Social Sector Table 3 Crop Production,Gross Value, and Incremental- Both Sectors Combined Annex 9 FertilizerApplication Rates and Total Requirement Annex 10 Annual Operation and MaintenanceCosts Annex 11 IndividualSector Farm Model Annex 12 Financial and Economic Prices Annex 13 Table 1 FinancialAnalysis IndividualSector Table 2 FinancialAnalysis Social Sector Table 3 FinancialAnalysis Total Project Annex 14 Economic Prices for Tradeable Inputs and Outputs Annex 15 Economic Rate of Return Annex 16 Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File
Charts
Chart-WorldBank-23654 ImplementationSchedule Chart-WorldBank-23657 BOAL HydromeliorationSemberija - Organizational Chart
IBRD No. 16222 Map of SemberijaDrainage Project APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
I. The Agricultural Sector
A. Agriculture in Yugoslavia
1.01 Yugoslavia is endowed with relatively favorable land resources and diverse climatic conditions that permit wide ranging agricultural pursuits. About 44% of the total territory is mountainous and 56% is agricultural, two thirds of which or 7.08 million ha is arable land. A varied production pattern has developed within and among the republics which emphasizes cereals and industrial crops in the eastern and central plains along the Danube and Sava, livestock in the hilly and more mountainous areas of the far north and south, and vineyards, olives and citrus fruits along the Adriatic Coast.
1.02 Of the 22.3 million people in Yugoslavia, an estimated 54% still live in rural areas. Agricultural production engages about 30% of the country's active population compared to 50% in 1961. In 1980, agricultural output accounted for about 14% of GMP (29% in 1961), and about 14% of foreign exchange earnings (34% in 1961). In this sense, agricultural development in Yugoslavia has followed a path similar to that of any industrializing economy. But, despite this relative decline in contribution, agriculture remains an important source of food, employment, income, industrial raw materials, and foreign exchange earnings. In addition, many activities in the manufacturing, transport, and service sectors are related either to the supply of agricultural inputs or the processing of agricultural output.
1.03 A key feature of the agricultural sector is the ownership of about 84% of the land by nearly 2.6 million individual farmers making it the only sector of the Yugoslav economy which is predominantly privately owned. With an average holding per family of 3.2 ha, and 95% of the total agricultural labor force, the individual sector produces 85% of the maize, 60% of the wheat, 75% of the vegetables and owns between 85 and 90% of all livestock. The individual sector co-exists with the social sector agrokombinats that developed out of post-war collectivization. Agrokombinats operate as integrated factory farms engaged in primary production, agro-processing, distribution and marketing. All agricultural services, credit, marketing and processing activities are in the hands of the social sector. In addition to the agrokombinats, the social sector includes other institutions, namely cooperatives and research organizations, which all together control 15% of the arable land, produce 28% of the nation's total output, and account for 5% of the rural work force. The reasons for the disproportionate contributions from the two sectors stem from Yugoslavia's agricultural development strategy which promotes the growth of social sector agriculture as the principal means to\ achieve large-scale market production and self-sufficiency in food. Agricultural production during 1971-1980 grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the social sector compared to 1.2% in the same period for the individual sector. However, the relative performance of the social sector has not been as good as the growth rates suggest. Investments per hectare have been three times higher in the social sector than in the individual sector while productivity has only been about twice as great.
1.04 The individual sector's development, at least since the mid-1970's, has been sought through the cooperation of farmers with the social sector. Since the social sector is the only seller of inputs and buyer of outputs on organized markets, all individual farmers have dealings with it. But the government seeks more extensive cooperation; for example, (i) associated farmers in a basic organization of associated labor of an agrokombinat or (ii) as members of producer cooperatives or finally (iii) as farmers entering production contracts with social sector organizations. Although there are benefits to be derived from closer cooperation, farmers have been reluctant to associate themselves more closely with the social sector and consequently a large number of individual farmers have remained as a relative poverty group in Yugoslavia. The wide income disparity between individual farm and social sector incomes has caused substantial migration of the young labor force which has also hindered more rapid growth in the sector over all. If Yugoslavia is to improve agricultural performance and reduce income disparities, it will need to reassess some of the policies which have impeded faster growth in the individual sector.
1.05 The 1981-1985 Agricultural Development Plan expects a substantial improvement in agricultural production. An overall 4.5% annual production growth rate is projected with estimated increases of 6% for the social sector, 4% for the individual sector, 7% for agro-industries and a 10% growth in agricultural exports. Based on the sluggish performance during the past five years (1.6% annual growth rate compared to the goal of 4%) this new plan is especially ambitious. The proposed strategy relies on improved land use and the development of social sector holdings as the main vehicles for growth.
1.06 Yugoslavia has experienced a net decline in arable land since 1959 of an estimated 600,000 ha, primarily due to the encroachment of expanding urban centers and industrial development. According to the present plan, this situation is to turn around over the next 5 years through land amelioration and reclamation works. Total arable land is assumed to increase from the present 7.08 million ha to 7.30 million by 1985 -- with the entire additional 220,000 ha accruing to the social sector. Total arable land in the individual sector is expected to remain constant at 5.83 million ha, because expansion due to reclamation will be offset by sales of land to the social sector. Agricultural planners recognize the need to develop the individual sector as a means of addressing the problems of unemployment, rural poverty, regional income disparities and low productivity and feel this will best be achieved through increased cooperation with the social sector. They further maintain that the slower growth rate targeted for the sector reflects the institutional deficiencies leading to difficulties in providing large numbers of small farmers with adequate inputs and markets.
1.07 The challenge in the 1980's for Yugoslav agriculture is to increase production in, and incomes of, the large individual sector, increase productivity in the social sector, and expand the export base of agricultural products. This challenge is being recognized by the Government, as evidenced - 3 - by the reorientation towards primary production in the 1981 - 1985 Plan. Despite the Government's granting of priority status to agriculture and recognition of the need to make changes in its policies and investment programs, the sector still tends to suffer from major problems. These problems are; (a) inadequate investment; (b) imbalance toward agricultural processing; (c) inadequate agricultural credit facilities and extension services; and (d) inadequate institutional arrangements and services for the large individual sector. Instead of continued reliance on the growth of social sector agriculture as the principal means to achieve the Plan's goals, the Government also needs to take simultaneous steps towards the development of Yugoslavia's largest agricultural resource, the individual farmer.
Bank's Role and Agricultural Lending Strategy
1.08 The interrelated objectives which the Bank has pursued in lending to Yugoslavia are:
(a) to support Yugoslav efforts to address the critical issues of regional disparities and unemployment;
(b) to promote the development of primary production in the social sector and particularly in the individual sector in recognition of the fact that the major output increases can be expected from the largest resource block;
(c) to encourage structural reforms in major sectors through improved coordination, institution building and technical assistance;
(d) to help in identifying and financing gaps in basic infrastructure; and
(e) to alleviate critical shortages of convertible foreign exchange by providing part of the required long-term capital, encouraging and promoting Yugoslavia's efforts to tap other sources of medium and long-term capital and supporting projects which generate or conserve foreign exchange.
In the future, because of existing unutilized capacities, the Bank will support only rehabilitation and reconstruction of agro-processing capacities. There will also be more emphasis on investment in land improvement (drainage and reclamation) to help reverse the long-term decline in the area under cultivation. Bank strategy and lending policy is consistent with and closely parallels the country's development strategies. The Bank assisted in the formulation of the 1973 "Green Plan", a comprehensive framework for agricultural development, which emphasized the need to support the individual farm sector in order to accelerate agricultural growth. This policy has been pursued still further and about 40% of the 1981-85 proposed World Bank lending program to Yugoslavia is expected to be in the agricultural sector. The Bank's strategy focuses, as far as possible, in channelling its resources to the lesser developed regions in the primary production sector and related -4-
processing facilities. In the Republics of Serbia and Croatia which together with the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina constitute the middle income regions, two agricultural projects in the Morava and one in the Sava basins have been financed and are intended, inter alia, to demonstrate how the problems of the poor agricultural communes in the relatively developed regions can be addressed. The Bank has already made a total of 13 loans for agriculture in Yugoslavia, amounting to US$766 million, constituting about 24% of the Bank's total lending to Yugoslavia. In addition, two multi-purpose projects have major irrigation components. In the future, the emphasis on the agricultural sector is expected to increase further.
1.09 Role of the Project. The present project under consideration continues the Bank's poverty alleviation focus as agricultural income levels in Semberija are among the lowest in Yugoslavia. However, through this project a shift would be made from the less developed and more moutainous southern regions to the development of primary production in the northern flat-lands which count among the most productive in Yugoslavia. The project would help to reverse the trend of declining arable land. Almost 700,000 ha of agricultural land has gone out of cultivation in the past two decades partly due to deterioration of land due to flooding and water logging. The project would stress primary production, particularly cereals and industrial crops, lack of which have contributed to the growing deficit in the agricultural balace of trade. In 1979 and 1980, almost one million tons of cereals were imported, although Yugoslavia was once a net exporter. Finally, the project would begin to address some of the institutional and policy issues retarding agricultural growth. Provisions to improve extension services, promote land consolidation, and studies of the economics of small-holder agriculture -- including the impact of price policy -- are included in this project. In this way, the project would attempt to move beyond poverty and employment objectives to begin to address some of the structural problems affecting the Yugoslav economy -- external adjustments, inadequate growth and the lagging contribution of the agricultural sector.
C. Agricultural Development Issues in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina (SRBH)
1.10 Overview. The Socialist Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina is located in the south central part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and comprises 5.11 million hectares or 20% of the total area of Yugoslavia. As of 1980, average per capita income was US$1,737 or approximately two-thirds of the national average, making SR Bosnia-Herzegovina one of the lower income regions. Presently farm families account for 30% of the Republic's total estimated population of 4.2 million and have an average per capita income of US$454. The depressed incomes in agriculture, which employs 48% of the active labor force (compared to 30% of the labor force in SFRY), are one of the main reasons for such wide income differentials between SRBH and SFRY.
1.11 From 1971 to 1980 rural population in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina decreased by 1.8%. Shortages in non-agricultural employment point out the importance of creating better living conditions and increased employment in rural areas. By helping to create the conditions for faster growth in agricultural production, the Government will be addressing serious problems within the economy viz: - 5 -
(i) rural poverty and the huge disparity of incomes between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors; (ii) urban population's growing demand for more and higher quality food products; (iii) raw material requirements for growing industrial production; and (iv) the savings of foreign exchange through reduced food imports and expanded exports. The Government realizes that in order to attain these goals for the agricultural sector, at least two factors will be critical: the more optimum use of low land areas and extensive cooperation among individual farmers who own 95% of arable land.
1.12 The Individual Farmer. Presently the private sector's land is subdivided into tiny plots located in disparate areas with a total average holding per family of 3.5 ha. The Government is encouraging private farmers to pool their labor and capital to form cooperative organizations. These organizations can provide farmers with benefits they otherwise would have considerable difficulty obtaining: i.e. credit facilities, access to rental of expensive farm equipment; price assurances and market guarantees; advice and counseling; as well as medical/pension plan arrangements. The disadvantages to the individual farmers are loss of flexibility and in some cases lower product prices paid by the Basic Cooperative Organizations. Because they make allowances for operating costs, product prices may be reduced accordingly and in some instances become too low to provide incentives to expand production. Although the policy appears to be a well-reasoned solution to the need to increase on-farm production, in practice it seems to have been less successful. This may in part be due to insufficient financial incentives as well as the historical disinclination of individual farmers to become part of organized labor groups or cooperatives.
1.13 Land Use. Due to its mountainous terrain, only 21% (1.61 million ha) of SRBH's total area is arable land (compared to 28% for SFRY). Of this amount, about 0.5 million ha are flatlands in the Sava River Basin which are among the most productive and fertile lands in all of SFRY. Within this Basin, about 150,000 ha are in need of drainage, of which 15,700 ha are covered in this project. The effects of this periodic flooding has been a 25% under-utilization of arable land. This situation has prevailed in SRBH since 1960 because the Republic has relied more heavily on livestock which can utilize the hilly mountainous area while the production of cereals and industrial crops has remained limited. The need to alter this situation has received prominance from agricultural planners who intend to increase planted areas in SR Bosnia Herzegovina by 20% by 1985, through the successful implementation of land reclamation and improvement programs primarily in lowland areas of which the current project is one of the components.
1.14 Agricultural Production. Agricultural performance has been sporadic over the last 5 years as production increased on average by only 2.65%, and its share in total production fell from 14% in 1975 to 11.5% by 1980. Output is expected to increase by an annual rate of 4% over the next five years (8% for the social sector, 3.5% for the individual sector). Production of grains alone is to be expanded by 70% and an even larger increase in other industrial crops is anticipated which would contribute to import substitution for wheat and barley and increased export potential for other cereals. To achieve these objectives, the plan allocates Dinars 17,000 million (US$390 million) to the - 6 - agricultural sector which represents 5.5% of total outlays compared to 2.1% for the 1976-1980 plan. Most of this amount has been allocated to primary production. The plan's projected 4% growth target is ambitious, particularly in view of the last plan's performance. Nevertheless, the prerequisites for attaining these growth rates have been recognized by the Government, namely: the improvement and enlargement of cultivated land; redirection of investment toward raw material production; and more extensive cooperation among individual farmers. II. The Project Area
A. Description of the Project Area
2.01 Location. The project area of 19,000 ha, which lies within the low plain of Semberija, is located in the north-eastern corner of the SR Bosnia-Herzegovina at the confluence of the Sava and Drina Rivers. These two rivers border the project site on the north and east, respectively. The Seliste and Majevica canals form its southern and western borders, respectively. The project area, which comprises nine villages, is located within the Commune of Bijeljina, the sixth most populous commune in the Republic. The City of Bijeljina, with 30,000 inhabitants, is 12 km from the project area.
2.02 Topography. The project area comprises the lowest part of the Semberija plain, with elevations ranging from 80 to 88 meters above sea level. Land slope is generally from south to north toward the Sava and Drina Rivers. However, due to the relatively small slope (below 0.2%) and land configuration close to the Sava River, flooding occurs in the larger depressions, ravines and low-lying land after medium and heavy rains. Further away from the Sava River there are some local, smaller depressions and elevated mounds. Prior to the installation of flood protection dikes, the project area was regularly flooded by the two rivers. Old river beds now protected by the dikes represent the lowest part of the land.
Climate
2.03 Temperature. The Semberija plain has a moderate continental climate with cold winters, warm summers and a relatively uniform rain distribution, well adapted to agriculture. The average annual temperature is 10.8°C. July is the hottest month and January the coldest, averaging temperatures of 20.80 C and -0.80C, respectively. The last frost usually occurs in the beginning of April, so planting of sugarbeet, maize and frost-sensitive vegetables begins in mid-April.
2.04 Precipitation. The average annual rainfall is 750 mm, of which 434 mm occur during the vegetation period (April to September). The wettest months are May and June, with 75 mm and 88 mm, respectively (Annex 1). There is no pronounced soil-water deficit during the summer except in extremely dry years. By contrast, waterlogging occurs regularly in spring, early summer and autumn in low-lying areas with heavy impermeable soils.
2.05 Wind and Relative Humidity. Winds are mostly moderate and do not present a serious problem to crop production. Hail, which occurs sporadically in localized areas, very rarely damages the crops. The relative air humidity ranges from 70% to 80%, with no marked variations between months. Generally, the climate is suitable for the normal growth of crops, particularly for cereals (wheat and maize), industrial crops (sugarbeet and sunflower), forage crops (alfalfa, clover, legume-grass mixtures and maize silage), and vegetables (potatoes and cabbage). Only the drought-sensitive vegetables under intensive cultivation, such as tomatoes and peppers, require supplementary irrigation. - 8-
2.06 Soils and Land Capability. The project area of 19,000 ha is divided into two main zones; one of 15,570 ha requiring reclamation and land improvement and the other of 3,430 ha requiring only land improvement. Three main soil types and nine subtypes have been distinguished and are briefly described below:
(a) The predominant soil type is semigleysol, covering 63% of the reclamation zone and 100% outside the reclamation zone. They are heavy textured, deep and among the most fertile soils within the Semberija plain. These are old valley soils and not subjected to regular floodings for a long period of time. The water table is deep, causing gleyzation in the lower portion of the profile, usually below one meter. These soils have been for-medon calcaric sediments and range from slightly below to slightly above the neutral point. Available phosphorus content is low, potassium is low to moderate and the humus content in the upper horizon is three to four percent.
(b) The second most common soil is eugleysol, covering 33% of the reclamation zone. Due to their heavy texture, high groundwater level and low infiltration rate, these soils are subject to waterlogging. While potentially fertile, these soils require special drainage measures. The pH reaction ranges from neutral to alkaline, humus from three to five percent and available phosphorus and potassium is low to moderate.
(c) Fluvisols, which extend along the Sava and Drina rivers representing about 4% of the reclamation zone, are typical young alluvial soils, poor in humus, but possessing generally favorable physical and chemical properties. A portion of these soils represent the old river course and consequently are under water for a considerable part of the year.
A land capability classification of the project area was done, according to USBR methodology, both under present conditions and after land reclamation. This resulted in dividing the land into four main classes and 16 subclasses. The division into main classes is shown below:
Present Situation After Land Reclamation Class ha % Class ha %/
2 4,920 32 1 4,920 32
3 5,960 38 1 4, 250 2 7 2 1,710 11
4 3,970 25 2 1,500 9 3 2,470 16
5 720 5 2 720 5
Total 15,570 100 15,570 100
/I Summary; Class 1 (59%), Class 2 (25%), Class 3 (16%) - 9 -
The land capability classification indicates that generally the soils are potentially good for intensive crop production, but they require drainage measures to regulate the water regime, which under present conditions, is the principal constraint. After land reclamation and improvement (clearing, levelling, deep plowing, fertilization), the capability classification of the land improves.
2.07 Population, Employment and Incomes. There are 17,000 inhabitants currently in the project area. Population has declined seven percent over the past 20 years: a much lower rate than for other regions of Yugoslavia. Rural population constitutes about 88% of the total with slight fluctuations over the years due to change of activity without change of residence and also due to migration. The rural population is young: up to age 19, 34%; from 20 to 39, 30%; from 40 to 49, 14%; and over 50 years, 22%. The rural population is engaged primarily in crop production, cattle and pig raising, maintenance of buildings and equipment, and marketing of produce. The active rural population is estimated at 6,730 man years equivalent./l From the table below, it can be seen that the current requirements for agricultural activities require only about 42% of the available active rural labour force. Another 20% are estimated to be engaged in household activities, and in some minor employment in industry. The surplus labour force available to agriculture, for incremental production under the project, is estimated at about 2,534 man years equivalent.
Annual Labor Balance Present Situation Activity Available Required Balance - - - - Man Years Equivalent- - - -
Crop production 3,994 1,460 2,534 Animal husbandry 1,060 1,060 - Post-farm activities 330 330 Industry and household 1,346 1,346 - Total 6,730 4,196 2,534
Approximately 15,000 people (4,700 farm families) or 90% of the total population in the area are in the target group and are primarily subsisting on an estimated average per capita income of about US$440.00. Target per capita income for SFRY is about US$850./2
2.08 Land Use - Present. The current distribution of land is shown in the table on the following page. The project covers a gross area of 19,000 ha, of which only 57% can currently be considered as arable. Waterlogging renders otherwise arable land (7.6%) uncultivable and another 8.5% and 15.7% remain in low-grade natural grasslands, and degraded woodland and brush, respectively. Only about one third of the forest land, which mostly is in the individual sector, is of commercial value. Fruit trees and vineyards (3%) are scattered around the dwellings of the individual farmers. The percentage of arable land in the individual sector is considerably higher than in the social, because historically private farms have been located on more favorable higher ground. Land reclamation and improvement under the project will greatly increase the amount of arable land in both sectors (para 4.01).
/1 Man year equivalent defined as 216 days/year at 8 hrs/day for animal production and household activities and 140 days/year at 10 hrs/day for crop production. /2 Average and target per capita incomes refer to 1980. - 10 -
Land Use - Present Sitaution
Individual Sector Social Sector Total Land Category ha % ha % ha %
Agricultural Land Arable Cultivated 10,130 64.5 730 22.2 10,860 57.2 Arable Uncultivated 890 5.7 560 17.0 1,450 7.6 Subtotal Arable 11,020 70.2 1,290 39.2 12,310 64.8
Fruits and Grapes 580 3.7 - - 580 3.1 Natural Meadows 440 2.8 - - 440 2.3 Natural Pastures 570 3.6 610 18.5 1,180 6.2 Subtotal Perm. Crops 1,590 10.1 610 18.5 2,200 11.6
Total Agricultural Land 12,610 80.3 1,900 57.7 14,510 76.4
Non-Agricultural Land Forests and Brush 2,770 17.6 220 6.7 2,990 15.7 Roads, Works, Farm yards 330 2.1 1,170 35.6 1,500 7.9
Total Non-Agricultural Land 3,100 19.7 1,390 42.3 4,490 23.6
Total Land Area 15,710 100.0 3,290 100.0 19,000 100.0
2.09 Land Tenure. From the total project area of 19,000 ha, 83% belongs to the individual sector and 17% to the social. The farm size distribution of the 15,710 ha in the individual sector in 1971 was as follows;
Land Tenure Pattern in the Project Area Individual Sector
Farm Size Households or Farms Area Average Farm Size ha Number % ha % ha
Up to 1 679 15.16 475 3.02 0.7 1 - 2 821 18.324 1,231 7.83 1.5 2 - 3 786 17.56 1,965 12.50 2.5 3 - 4 689 15.39 2,411 15.35 3.5. 4 - 5 494 11.05 2,223 14.15 4.5 5 - 6 344 7.68 1,893 12.05 5.5 6 - 8 414 9.25 3,022 19.24 7.3 Over 8 249 5.56 2,490 15.86 10.0
Total 4,476 /1 100.00 15,710 100.00 3.5
/1 In addition, there are 184 households without land giving a total of 4,660. - 11 -
The average farm size in the individual sector is 3.5 ha. According to the 1981 cadastral survey, which registers 44,650 individual plots and 4,700 households owning land in the project area, the average farm has 9.5 plots. Land fragmentation is a serious problem, not only because of labor and power wastage while moving within and between small, scattered plots, but also because of loss of land and shading caused by the accumulation of vegetation between the plot boundaries. The social sector land of 3,290 ha is owned by two enterprises: the Work Organization Agricultural Estate Semberija (1,280 ha) and the Work Organization Sava (2,010 ha). Prior to the end of 1982, the former enterprise would acquire the land of the latter, and thereby become the sole enterprise in the project area. These social sector holdings are mostly concentrated in the northern portion of the project area.
2.10 Existing Infrastructure. Transport facilities, power supply, schools and health services are generally well established in the project area. Five main asphalt roads (30 km) and the railway line, Bijeljina-Bosanska-Raca-Sid, link the project area with other parts of the Republic. In addition, local paved roads (60 km) connect the nine villages within the project area. All settlements are connected to the electrical power network.
B. Agricultural Situation in the Project Area
Crop Production
2.11 Cereals. Cereals are the most important crop, covering 79% of the cultivated area, of which maize is the traditional crop with 49%. Crop production is erratic and adherance to a well defined cropping pattern is impossible because of unpredictable waterlogged conditions which vary from place to place and year to year, affecting from 800 to 2,000 ha annually. Excessive soil water frequently necessitates late spring planting and the subsequent use of short maturing varieties, which produce low yields. Cultural practices are minimal and although fertilizer and other inputs are used, crop response is below expectations because of excessive moisture. Average yields obtained by private farmers (1977-1980) were 2.7 t/ha of wheat and 3.3 t/ha of maize. Social sector yields were slightly higher.
2.12 Industrial Crops. Traditionally, industrial crops have been of minor importance; however, sugarbeet was introduced two years ago to help meet the requirements of a sugar factory located on the fringe of the project area. Currently, only a small portion of the factory's capacity (400,000 tons) has been supplied from the project area (14,000 tons on 470 ha). In fact, the mill has operated at less than 30% of its capacity since opening.
2.13 Vegetables and Forage Crops. Vegetable crops (750 ha) are primarily grown by the individual sector. They include potatoes, cabbage, green pepper and tomatoes. Tomato and green pepper are often sprinkler irrigated from small wells and drainage canals. Small amounts of industrial peas and string beans (70 ha) are grown by the social sector. Forage crops are grown only by the private sector of which alfalfa (510 ha) is the most important and is grown mostly on selected high land. Use of annual forage crops is very limited. - 12 -
2.14 Agricultural Practices. In the zone outside the reclamation area, where waterlogging is absent, wheat and maize are equally represented in a two-year crop rotation. However, in the area where waterlogging currently is a problem, maize is frequently repeated on the same plot, because of difficulties with fall sowing of wheat and the impossibility of establishing a crop rotation. The relatively small amount of sugarbeet grown by the individual sector is on an ad hoc basis; whereas, in the social sector it is usually grown in a four-year crop rotation of wheat-maize-wheat-sugarbeet. Forage crops and vegetables, grown by the individual sector, are each included in self-contained flexible rotations on selected higher ground. The prevailing level of technological "know-how" is rather good, but because the risk of waterlogging in the major portion of the project area causes uncertainties, the farmers are reluctant to apply this technology in terms of optimal levels of inputs. Certified seed of high potential yielding crop varieties, plant protection chemicals, and fertilizers are all available through reasonably well organized channels of the agrokombinats and the Basic Organizations of Cooperative Farmers. The social sector uses only certified seed of the latest varieties; whereas, the private sector also uses unselected seed of traditional varieties. Herbicides are applied on half the area planted to cereals in the private sector, but not on vegetables. In the social sector, herbicides are applied on all crops. Fertilizers are used on almost all annual crops. Fertilizer rates in the social sector exceed those in the private, although useage by the latter is on the increase. Basic fertilization at planting time is commonly foregone on waterlogged land due to late sowing. In these cases, side and top-dressings are applied to the crops during the growing period. Details concerning fertilizer usage by both sectors is given in para 4.05. Farming operations are reasonably well mechanized in the social sector, while in the individual sector they are restricted to basic land preparation. Most of the seeding, weeding, and vegetable and fodder harvesting are performed manually. In addition to privately owned tractors, the Work Organization of Cooperative Farmers Podrinje rents machinery to its cooperative members. Specialized machinery such as for sugarbeet is completely lacking in both sectors. Additional farm machinery and equipment would be provided by the project (para. 3.13 and Annex 3, Table 2)
2.15 Livestock Production. Practically all individual farmers keep some cattle and pigs (1 to 3 head of cattle and 3 to 5 pigs, according to farm size). Animal husbandry engages about 45% of the farm labor, particularly housewives and elderly men and women. It provides year-round income and represents a significant source of financial means for the private household. There are no livestock in -he social sector within the project area. The number of cattle and pigs is increasing; whereas, sheep and horses are declining, as seen from the table below:
Livestock Census (Number of Head) 1971 1979
Cattle 4,103 5,087 Pigs 18,046 20,000 Sheep 2,270 454 Horses 3,000 1,200 - 13 -
Milk (1,400 1 per cow/year) is mainly for home consumption, although when a surplus occurs, it is marketed through cooperative channels. Cattle graze pasture and fallow crop-land during the summer. In winter they are fed hay and dry roughage plus some concentrate feed. Most farmers produce pork and poultry meat for their own needs, and a limited number of pigs are fattened for market. There is a nationwide program of animal husbandry improvement, which together with World Bank financed Projects (Loans 1129-YU, 1477-YU and 1801-YU), is contributing to development of meat and milk production in the project area.
2.16 Agroindustries and Markets. A well developed, but highly under-utilized agroindustry exists in and close to the project area. It consists of the following major enterprises; (1) a sugar factory with total capacity of 400,000 tons of sugarbeet each season, which began operations in 1979; (2) a vegetable and fruit canning plant for processing 16,000 tons of primary production; (3) a vegetable dehydration plant for 12,000 tons of carrots, parsley and onions, which started in 1979; (4) a flour mill with a milling capacity for 36,000 tons of wheat, with an allied industrial bakery and feed mixing plant; and (5) a slaughterhouse capable of handling 10,000 head of cattle and 50,000 head of pigs annually. In addition to the above mentioned processing industries, outlets for primary production in the area are through wholesale and retail channels, local markets and home consumption.
2.17 Agricultural Research. BOAL Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina, which is one of 11 specialized basic organizations of the Work Organization Research and Development Institute associated with UPI, is the principal source of new technology in crop production for the project area. Its activities include; breeding and improvement of crop varieties; variety testing; testing of plant protection chemicals; fertilizer use; and seed production. The experimental trials and seed production are conducted on 133 ha owned by the Institute and by a staff of 33. The staff comprises eight university graduates, six high school graduates, seven at intermediate level and the remainder semi-skilled labor. The transfer of research results to individual farmers is an important function of the Institute. This is accomplished through demonstration plots in the Institute's own fields, on farmers' fields and socially owned estates and by maintaining a close relationship with the extension agents of W.O. Podrinje. In addition, the Institute's staff organizes lectures, seminars and special courses in cooperation with the extension agents and teaching staff of the nearby Work Organization Agricultural Education Center. The Institute produces about 30% of the needs of the Semberija region for seeds of wheat, maize and sugarbeet. It also provides foundation seed to W.O. A.E. Semberija, which then multiplies it either for its own use or for distribution to the individual sector through the cooperatives. Funds for the Institute are drawn from the Republic budget, from UPI and from contracts with cooperatives and food industries. The project would provide additional vehicles and equipment to the Institute (para. 4.09 and Annex 3, Table 3). - 14 -
2.18 Agricultural Extension. W.O. Podrinje is the principal provider of agricultural extension services to the individual farmer in the project area. The extension agents which currently number 30 (3 university and 27 intermediate level) operate out of the offices of six Basic Organizations of Cooperative Farmers (BOCF) located in the project area. These six BOCFs plus nine others located outside the project area together form the W.O. Podrinje, which has its main headquarters in the city of Bijeljina. In the project area about 80% of the individual farm households (680 permanent and 3,100 cooperating members) belong to the six BOCFs and, therefore, have access to extension advice and other inputs and services provided by the BOCFs. Under present conditions, each extension worker covers 126 farms or approximately 300 ha of arable land: a ratio which reflects the inability of the BOCFs to provide adequate extension service to its members. The difficulty is further compounded because extension agents devote about half their time negotiating crop contracts with the farmers. The project would provide vehicles and supporting material for the extension service of W.O. Podrinje (para 4.09 and Annex 3, Table 3). The sugar mill also provides technical advice to those farmers under contract for growing sugarbeets. This is done through a special unit of the mill composed of 10 university graduates who cooperate with the Association of Agricultural Engineers and in close cooperation with the BOCFs, the Agricultural Institute and the Agricultural Education Center.
2.19 Other Support Services. The W.O. Agricultural Education Center, located in Bijeljina, trains agricultural technicians and skilled workers in crop production, animal husbandry, farm machinery and food processing. It comprises a main building, residence hall and a 300 ha farm where students gain practical experience. The Center has 34 teachers and an annual enrollment of 1,200. Three types of programs are offered; four years terminating in agricultural technicans, three years for skilled workers, and part-time instruction during four years for workers who continue their regular employment. In addition, the Center offers courses and seminars for farmers. The staff maintains close contact with the BOAL Agricultural Institute, W.O. Podrinje and the BOCFs. The BOAL Veterinary Department, which is a unit of the Regional Veterinary Center in Tuzla, is located at the Agricultural Education Center of Bijeljina. It provides preventive and diagnostic veterinary assistance to both sectors through a staff of 36, of which 13 are university graduates. The veterinarians also offer lectures at the Agricultural Education Center.
C. Principal Institutions Participating in the Project
2.20 Privredna Banka Sarajevo Udruzena Banka (PBS). PBS would be the borrower for the proposed project. It is one of the participating banks in the First, Second and Third Agricultural Credit Projects (Loans 1129-YU, 1477-YU and 1801-YU), and five industrial Credit Projects since 1972 and is the sole borrower from the Bank under Bosanska Krajina Project (Loan 1621-YU) and the recently approved Bosnia-Herzegovina Agricultural Development Project. Banks in Yugoslavia operate not to maximize profits but to earn an income adequate to cover expenses and from the residual to make annual contributions for various reserve funds. A financial assessment of PBS's performance was completed in October, 1981 as part of the appraisal of the - 15 -
Sixth Industrial Credit Project. PBS's financial performance has been satisfactory, and it continues to be credit worthy.
2.21 Complex Organization of Associated Labor of the United Agriculture, Marketing and Industry (COAL UPI). UPI is a vertically integrated social sector enterprise dealing with primary agricultural production, food processing, distribution, retail marketing and tourism, concentrated almost entirely in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina, with headquarters in Sarajevo. UPI associations involved in agricultural production hold 33.6% of the Republic's agricultural land. Its food industry represents 36% of the Republic's food industry besides being responsible for 32.8% of total transport for that sector. UPI is composed of 53 work organizations (W.O.) which consist of 309 basic associations of associated labor (BOAL), 126 cooperative basic organizations (CBO), and 54 work communities. The structure is based on a pooling of labor and resources, and relationships and commitments are governed by self-management agreements. UPI has 33,000 employees and production cooperation with 47,000 agricultural households in the individual sector. The UPI affiliated organizations involved in the Semberija Drainage Project, which are described in the following paragraphs, include W.O. Agricultural Estate Semberija and its three BOALs; W.O. Podrinje and six of its 15 BOCFs; W.O. Sava; W.O.Research of Development Institute and its BOAL Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina and W.O. Agricultural Education Center.
2.22 Work Organization Agricultural Estate Semberija. This is a work organization associated with COAL UPI, and is the proposed as the sole investor for carrying out the project. Headquartered in Nova Selo, near the Commune of Bijeljina, it is the largest social sector agricultural enterprise in the project area. W.O.A.E. Semberija, which operates in the fields of crop and livestock production, employs 353 people and owns a total of 7,640 ha of land, of which 3,290 ha (43%) are in the project area. The activities of W.O.A.E. Semberija are carried out through three BOALs, namely: BOAL for Crop Production; BOAL Stocarstvo for Livestock Production; and BOAL for Machine Overhauling. Each of these BOALs is a legally constituted entity whose autonomy, legal rights and obligations were established through a Self Managing Agreement with W.O.A.E. Semberija under coal UPI. BOAL for Crop Production would be directly involved in the project. Its activities include production and trade of seeds, cereals, sugarbeet, fruit, and forest seedlings, and final processing of all seeds, fruit and vegetables. Forty-three percent of BOAL for Crop Production's arable land in the project area is uncultivated annually due to flooding. The project would increase the amount of arable land by 1,350 ha as well as significantly improve crop yields. W.O.A.E. Semberija is a financially viable organization whose profits meet all legal and contractual obligations and salaries as well as provide a yearly contribution to its equity funds. The liquidity status is also highly satisfactory, with a 1979-1980 current ratio of 1.90. Assurances have been obtained during negotiations that, until the Closing Date of the proposed loan, W.O.A.E. Semberija will not understake or execute any project unless it has provided evidence satisfactory to the Bank, that any such project or development will not affect substantially and materially the execution of the project, or W.O.A.E. Semberija's operation and financial situation. - 16 -
2.23 Work Organization of Cooperative Farmers Podrinje. W.O. Podrinje, an agricultural cooperative that organizes individual farmers in cooperation with the social sector, is associated with COAL UPI and was founded in 1977. W.O. Podrinje is composed of 15 Basic Organizations of Cooperative Farmers (BOCF) of which six are in the project area. Association with W.O. Podrinje and contribution of labor and capital is voluntary and ownership of land and assets is not changed by joining a BOCF. The BOCFs have three types of members: united farmers linked with the cooperative through a five-year renewable contract; cooperants who sign a short-term (usually one year) renewable contract; and workers. At present, 80% of the total 4,700 farmers who own land in the project area are associated with a BOCF, 679 as permanent members (united farmers) and 3,077 as cooperants. W.O. Podrinje's membership goal, which coincides with Yugoslavia's agricultural development strategy, is to associate 100% of the private farmers. The headquarters of the work organization provides support services such as accounting, statistics and financial planning. The primary services and advantages accruing to its associated farmers are provision of agricultural inputs (seeds, equipment, fertilizers, chemicals, animal feed, equipment and credit), supervision of production through seminars, lectures and visits of the extension agents, and assured marketing of agricultural production. The important function of agricultural extension to individual farmers is also provided by W.O. Podrinje through the BOCFs (para 4.09). Within the context of a Five Year Development Plan, W.O. Podrinje is responsible for establishing an annual operation plan which takes into account the capabilities and needs of both the individual farmers and the agro-processing facilities that utilize the farmers' production. W.O. Podrinje also contracts through its BOCFs all production delivered by the farmers according to these annual production plans.
2.24 Basic Organization of Associated Labor Water Management Semberija. This BOAL, located in Bijeljina, is one of 14 BOALs which constitute the W.O. for Water Management of SR Bosnia-Herzegovina, an agency responsible for management of water resources in the Republic. This W.O. receives work contracts from the Self-Managing Community of Interest for Water Economy in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina (SIZ) and its fourteen OZs /1. BOAL Water Management Semberija's scope of activities includes monitoring the water levels in the Sava and Drina Rivers for the purpose of flood protection, carrying out any necessary protection measures, construction and maintenance of engineering works, preparation of water management plans for approval by the SIZ assembly and determination of the level of drainage charge corresponding to the cost of operation of the dike on the Drina River. Within the project area, BOAL Water Management Semberija has recently completed the construction of the Drina dike and is presesently constructing other protection facilities, as well as maintaining the Drina River banks, dikes and pumping stations. This BOAL would be responsible for operation and maintenance of the project facilities upon their completion (para. 5.06).
/1 SIZ is a Republic level body responsible for planning, investigation, construction, management, and protection of water resources in the Republic. Local water management activities in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina are handled by 14 Basic Self-Managing Communities, OZs. - 17 -
III. THE PROJECT
A. Objectives
3.01 The main objectives of the project are to increase and stabilize crop production, to feed agro-based industries (some existing but operating at very low capacities) and to raise labour productivity (para. 1.09). These would be achieved by providing drainage facilities in an area of about 15,600 ha gross (12,200 ha net) and land improvement without drainage over an additional area of about 3,500 ha gross (3,000 ha net).
B. Detailed Features
3.02 The project aims at safeguarding the area from external and internal waters and at land improvement through the following works;
(a) extension of Seliste Interceptor Drain, about 8 km long with out-fall discharge of about 8.0 m3 /sec, to intercept flood run-off descending from the southern uplands;
(b) reconstruction of Sava River dike along the northern boundary in a length of about 14.5 km to provide protection from Sava River floods;
(c) construction of surface drainage network including remodelling of existing channels, over an area of about 15,600 ha gross (12,200 ha net) to deal with internal excess waters;
(d) installation of sub-surface drainage system including mole drains in an area of about 1,900 ha gross (1,500 ha net) for draining heavy clay soils, and in relation thereto, carrying out of field experiments on the performance of alternative designs;
(e) construction of wide bedding on about 4,470 ha gross (3,500 ha net) for removal of surface waters;
(f) construction of one new pumping station for a discharge of about 15.5 m3 /sec, increasing discharge capacity of an existing pumping station by about 6.0 m3 /sec and repairs to two existing pumping stations;
(g) construction of about 80 km of paved and about 90 km of unpaved access roads for maintenance of project works;
(h) on-farm development in the project area on about 19,100 ha gross (15,150 ha net) (including about 3,500 ha gross, 3,000 ha net, without drainage) consisting of land clearance, land levelling, deep plowing, construction of workshops and machinery sheds and installation of power lines;
(i) provision of equipment for operation and maintenance of drainage and flood protection works; - 18 -
(k) provision of farm equipment to intensify agriculture in the area.
(1) vehicles and equipment for extension and research services;
(m) training of agricultural extension personnel; and
(n) miscellaneous feasibility studies for future land and water development projects in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Brief description of these components is given in paras. 3.03 to 3.15. Major features of the project are shown on Map IBRD 16222.
C. Description of the Project
Works
3.03 Seliste Interceptor. This drainage channel of about 13 km length of which about 5 km have already been completed runs along the south-eastern boundary of the project area. The left bank of this drainage canal would be converted into a dike, using the excavated material and would intercept surface run-off from the southern uplands. The design discharge in the proposed section of about 8 km would range from about 1.5 m3 /sec to about 8 m 3/sec, which corresponds to a return period of 20 years. The channel would be excavated to a bottom width of 1.0 to 1.5 m with corresponding depths of 1.72 to 2.15 m and side slopes of 1.5:1. This would involve excavation of about 0.15 million m3 of earthwork.
3.04 Sava Dike. The existing dike along the right bank of Sava River in a length of about 14.5 km is badly eroded and is unsafe against a 50-year flood for which it was originally designed. The top width is narrow and impassible during flood emergencies while the side slopes are completely eroded. Leakages also occur at a number of places during high floods. The dike would be raised to its original design level and strengthened to provide a top width of 5 m and a free-board of 1.2 m above the water levels generated in a 50-year flood. The river side slope would be 1:3 (bottom) and 1:2 (top) and the landside slope 1:1.5, with a berm to cover the line of seepage. The height of the dike would vary from about 3.4 m to 5.5 m, depending on ground elevation and would involve excavation and handling of about 0.8 million m3 of earthwork.
3.05 Surface Drainage. The project area is distinctly divided into 2 sub-areas, western and eastern, by an old interceptor canal (Dasnica), now abandoned after the construction of periphery interceptor canals. The western sub-area covering 5,770 ha, has some existing drainage canals which feed two existing pumping stations, but the system is insufficient to drain out the area. The eastern sub-area covering 9,800 ha has no drainage channel. The surface drainage system to be provided under the project comprises construction of 500 km of new drainage canals and remodelling 12.2 km of existing drainage canals for timely evacuation of surplus water. The main drainage canals would run along natural depressions with secondary drainage - 19 - canals joining them from either side at 800-1,600 m. The new drainage canals would include 37 km of main, 108 km of secondary and 355 km of tertiary canals, giving a density of about 32 m/ha. Specific discharge resulting from a storm-run-off of 5% probability varies from 2.98 to 9.84 1/sec/ha depending upon the characteristics of catchment areas for different canals. The depths vary from 1.5 to 3.5 m for main, 1.5 to 2.5 for secondary and 1.3 to 2.3 for tertiary canals. Total quantity of earthwork involved would be 3.2 million m . The drainage effluent would be disposed of in the Sava River through 3 pumping stations, including the two existing ones.
3.06 Sub-surface Drainage. Under the project, tile drainage would be provided in a pilot area of 1,500 ha in the social sector only. This area consists of gleyed soils in deep profiles with a permeability coefficient of about 3-5 cm/day. Corrugated plastic pipes of 5 cm diameter would be laid at 0.85-1.15 m depth at a slope of 0.2 percent and a spacing of 20 m to deal with a specific discharge of 0.9 1/sec/ha resulting from a storm of 5% probability. These tubes would discharge into tertiary canals at 40-50 cms above their bed in order to avoid submergence of their outlets. Mole drainage at 0.55 m depth and 2 m spacing would be carried out to loosen the soil and provide drainage flow towards the tile drains. Every third trench would be filled with river gravel of grain size 1-3 cm up to about 30 cm below the ground surface. Mole drains from a land width of 30 m on either side would empty into the trench filter at about 25 cm below its top level. The soil being carbonatic (hydraulically stable) the two trenches would be back filled with the granulated excavated soil under optimum moisture conditions. However, in view of the variability of the heavy clay surfaces and sub-soils of the area, two additional variant designs (differing in trench design and spacing) would be incorporated in the pilot-area so that their cost and performance could be monitored to provide technical and economic data for improved design of future tile drainage projects. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 8.01(a)).
3.07 Pumping Stations. Repairs would be carried out to two pumping stations Domuz-Skela and Topolovac which already exist in the western sub-area with capacities of 2.8 and 3.3 m3/sec and working heads of 3.26 and 3.72 m respectively. These would be utilized to meet the existing and future needs. An additional pumping station with a capacity of 5.7 m3 /sec and a head of 4.67 m would be built near the Topolovac pumping station with an additional installed capacity to 5.7 m3/sec. Another new station, at Begov-Put would be constructed in the eastern sub-area with a capacity of 15.3 m3 /sec and a head of 2.27 m. These capacities would cater for 50-60% of the peak discharge generated by a rainstorm of 20 years return period. The balance amount would be temporarily stored within the excess capacity available in the upper sections of drainage canals and would be evacuated within 40-70 hours without causing damage to the crops. The pumping units would be vertical propeller type coupled with electric motors. Sluice gates would be provided on the outlet channels of pumping stations so as to permit gravity outflow when the river levels are low. Three variant designs for foundations (i) wells, (ii) reinforced concrete raft and (iii) piles were considered in view of the clayey stratum of the sub-soil. However, existence of a gravel stratum close to the lowest foundation levels favours a more economical design on wells. The loads - 20 - of the stations are approximately the same as those of the materials to be excavated from the foundations thus eliminating the possibilities of excessive settlement. Relevant data on pumping stations are given in Annex 2.
3.08 Wide Bedding. An area of 4,470 ha gross (3,500 ha net) in the private sector would be provided with wide-bedding. This would be carried out by a system of back-furrowing to create gradual convexing of the land in the centre and lowering the edges at a spacing of 30 meters. The depressions at the edges would be connected with outlet pipes discharging into tertiary drains.
3.09 Road. Provision has been made for improvement of road network through upgrading of existing roads and construction of about 78 km of paved and 89 km of unpaved roads. Culverts and bridges have been provided over waterways. Each part of the project area would be well connected with important communication links of the region for quick movement of agricultural inputs and outputs as well as for operation and maintenance of project works.
3.10 On-Farm Development. The project would provide for clearance of brushwood, removal of trees and stumps from an area of 19,100 ha, (including 3,500 ha without drainage), clearing of landmarks (green line boundaries) formed as a result of excessive land fragmentation from 1,160 ha, and plowing of natural grassland (in low lying patches) over 1,620 ha. This would be followed by removal of timber, levelling of the fields, deep plowing and division of land into large plots for increased agricultural production. Provision has also been made for setting up facilities like small workshops for routine repairs and maintenance of farm machinery, storage sheds for fertilizer, seeds, insecticides, herbicides and installation and extension of electrical network to these facilities.
Equipment
3.11 Equipment for Operation and Maintenance and Experimental Equipment for Field Drains. The equipment listed in Annex 3, Table 1 is considered necessary to supplement existing equipment for the operation and maintenance of the project facility already available with the BOAL Water Management Semberija. One drain master to assist in execution of variant design has also been provided (para. 3.06). Provision for this equipment is made in the cost estimate.
3.12 Farm Equipment. The project would supplement existing agricultural equipment to partly replace old equipment and partly meet the additional requirements generated by the project (Annex 3, Table 2). Necessary provision for this purpose has been made in the cost estimate.
Miscellaneous
3.13 Extension and Research Services. In order to achieve the project's production objective it would be necessary to increase the technical staff and provide vehicles, audio-visual aids and office and laboratory equipment for both the agricultural extension and research services (Annex 3, Table 3). - 21 -
Necessary provision for vehicles and equipment has been made in the cost estimate.
3.14 Training of Personnel. In order to ensure the recruitment of the requisite number of well-trained staff for the agricultural extension services of W.O. Podrinje, it would be necessary, according to Yugoslav practice, to pay or reimburse the two-year university fees and provide agricultural extension agents with short fellowships (about 14 man-months), and specialized training courses (para. 4.09). Provision for this training has been made in the cost estimate.
3.15 Miscellaneous Feasibility Studies; Construction of irrigation and drainage projects in the Sava River Basin and in the karst flood plains in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina began in the early 1950's. Development of irrigation and drainage has been proceeding slowly, at an average rate of about 2,000 ha annually. No long range review of SR Bosnia Herzegovina's requirements in this sub-sector has been done, however, the following projects have been identified;
Name of Irrigation and Drainage Project Approximate Area (ha)
l. Mostarsko Blato 10,000
2. Nevesinjsko Polje 1,400
3. Duvanjsko Polje 2,400
4. Bekijsko Polje 3,600
5. Modrica 2,200
6. Odzak 2,060
7. Ivanjsko Polje (Near Bos. Brod) 2,800
8. "Nerventa" 2,700
9. Posavina & Brcko 17,000
10. Tuzla Spreca 3,000
11. Bos. Samac 4,500
Preliminary feasibility work on some of these projects has been carried out, however, extensive additional preparatory work would be necessary to bring the projects to a level acceptable for international financing. Feasibility studies for the development of land and water resources of a selected number of projects would be carried out by the Borrower, with the assistance of the Committee for Agriculture, Forestry and Water Power Engineering, SR Bosnia-Ilerzegovina,through engineering consultants acceptable to the Bank, who would be supported by specialized engineering consultants whose - 22 - qualifications, experience and terms of conditions of employment and scope of work would be satisfactory to the Bank. The technical, economic and financial feasibility studies would be preceeded by a preliminary feasibility study for all projects to enable selection of suitable components; and detailed feasibility studies for the selected projects, following an exchange of views with the Bank by September 30, 1983, would cover preliminary engineering design, technical agricultural preparation and recommendations on institutions and organizations. In addition to the hydrological, pedological, foundations, material, and other studies, the assignment is estimated to require about 70 man-months of consultant's time, for which provision has been made in the cost estimate. The above specified consultants would be employed before December 31, 1982 for which assurances were obtained during negotiations (para. 8.01(b)).
D. Land Consolidation
3.16 Land in the project area is presently divided into 44,650 plots with average sizes ranging from 0.33 ha in the private sector to 0.94 ha in the social sector. Each of the 4,700 farms, therefore, has an average number of 9.5 scattered plots. This excessive land fragmentation has led to considerable loss of land now falling under plot boundaries. Small plot sizes also inhibit use of agricultural machinery and rational use of family or hired labour. The proposed program of land consolidation would reduce the total number of plots in the individual sector to about 12,000, with each farm family owning about 3 plots as compared to present holdings of about 9.5 plots. The total social sector holdings would be readjusted into 18 plots. Land consolidation, combined with clearing of degenerated forests, bushes and land boundaries, would result in an increase of 2,840 ha in arable land, of which about 770 ha are expected to be reserved for rural infrastructure and future residential areas. The program of land consolidation has been phased in such a manner that the drainage project can be carried out un-impeded. The process would normally require three years with the following schedule of completion, including physical transfer of new plots: Year Area (ha)
1983 4,657 1984 7,191 1985 7,152
Total 19,000
Land consolidation would be carried out under the auspices of the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina, which would establish the commission and sub-commissions foreseen by the Yugoslav law for the preparation of the land consolidation. The Geodetic Institute of Sarajevo or another specialized firm would be contracted to carry out the necessary surveys. The law foresees a two-year period for completion of the land consolidation process up to the time the farmer is on his new plot. The Commune Assembly of Bijeljina has already started the land consolidation procedures. In a referendum in April 1981, a majority of 84 percent voted in favour of land consolidation. The Commune Assembly plans to start the work on 4,657 ha in 1982. No major difficulties should therefore be anticipated in implementing land - 23 - consolidation in the area of the project. If the above schedule is not met, the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina would acquire the land falling under the drainage infrastructure, in accordance with Yugoslav law, to avoid any delays in the implementation of the project. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 8.01(c)).
E. Status of Engineering
3.17 The project and its various alternatives have been studied by the Institute of Water Resources Development (IWRD) and a feasibility report, based on preliminary design and cost estimates, has been prepared with the assistance of the FAO/IBRD Cooperative Program. The drainage and land improvement works described above, including the strengthening of the Sava Dike, are the most economical and appropriate; this choice is acceptable to the Bank. The same Institute has already been entrusted with the work of preparing final designs, cost estimates, and bidding documents. The final designs and bidding document for the first year's contracts (1982) have already been completed. It is expected that the remaining final designs and bidding documents would be completed by Board presentation. Assurances to this effect were obtained during negotiations (para. 8.01(d)). Sub-soil drainage component would include field experiments and data collection on the performance of a few alternative designs to provide the basis for economic designs for future tile drainage works in the region.
F. Cost Estimate
3.18 The total project cost, including physical and price contingencies, and the front-end fee, is Din. 3,209.6 million (US$73.5 million)/!. The foreign exchange component which includes both direct and indirect foreign costs is estimated at about US$34.6 million or about 47% of the total cost. The estimate includes taxes and duties/2 and reflects prices ending June 1982. The cost estimate is based on unit rates currently applicable on similar works in Yugoslavia. Since final designs have not yet been prepared, physical contingencies at 15% of the base cost have been added, except for sub-surface drainage where, due to the need for detailed field-by-field design, 25% contingencies have been provided. Price contingencies on local costs have been compounded annually at 17.5% for July-December 1982, 25% for 1983, and at 20% for 1984, 1985, and 1986. On foreign costs these are compounded annually at 4.25% for July-December 1982, at 7.5% for 1983, 1984 and 1985, and at 6% for 1986. Cost estimates are summarized in the following table; further details are in Annex 4, Table 1.
/1 Using an exchange rate of US$1 = Dinar 43.6784 /2 Taxes and duties have been estimated at about US$1.8 million. - 24 -
Foreign Item Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exch. - - -Dinars Mi. ------US$ Million - -
Civil Works Seliste interceptor 11.0 14.0 25.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 56 Surface drainage 229.5 257.8 487.3 5.2 5.9 11.1 53 Sub-surface drainage 32.8 50.9 83.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 61 Pumping stations 62.6 98.6 161.2 1.5 2.3 3.6 61 Flood control works 101.3 129.6 230.9 2.3 3.0 5.3 56 Roads 109.5 114.7 224.2 2.5 2.6 5.1 51 On-farm development and miscellaneous works 151.4 177.3 328.7 3.4 4.1 7.5 54 Equipment for O&M 3.9 8.2 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 68 Farm equipment 42.8 90.9 133.7 1.0 2.1 3.1 68 Land consolidation 100.7 - 100.7 2.3 - 2.3 - Equipment for extension services 10.6 22.5 33.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 68 Engineering 22.5 70.7 93.2 0.5 1.6 2.1 76 Organization and management 15.9 - 15.9 0.4 - 0.4 - Training of personnel - 6.9 6.9 - 0.2 0.2 100 Miscellaneous feasibility studies 12.4 73.5 85.9 0.3 1.7 2.0 86
Base cost 906.9 1,115.7 2,022.6 20.7 25.7 46.4 55 Physical contingencies 139.4 172.4 311.8 3.2 3.9 7.1 55 Price contingencies 654.5 198.4 852.9 15.0 4.5 19.5 23 Total contingencies 793.9 370.8 1,164.7 18.2 8.4 26.6 32 Total project cost 1,700.8 1,486.5 3,187.3 38.9 34.1 73.0 47 Front-end Fee - 22.3 22.3 - 0.5 0.5 100 Total 1,700.8 1,508.8 3,209.6 38.9 34.6 73.5 47
G. Financing and On-Lending
3.19 Financing. The financing plan for the project was received during negotiations and is summarized below; further details are in Annex 4, Table 4.
Amount Financed Interest During Construction Source of Funding Project Cost on Bank Loan Total Percent ------US$ million ------
World Bank 34.6 (47%) - 34.6 43.4 Federal Fund 10.4 (14%) 3.6 14.0 17.5 Republic Fund 2.7 (4%) 0.2 2.9 3.7 PBS Udruzena Bank 9.5 (13%) 1.7 11.2 14.1 PBS Basic Bank Bijeljina 2.9 (4%) 0.2 3.1 3.8 Social Sector Equity Contributions/I 13.4 (18%) 0.5 13.9 17.5 Total 73.5 (100%) 6.2 79.7 100.0
/1 About 10.2% of the project cost would be equity contribution by SIZ SR Bosnia-Herzegovina (details at Annex 4, Table 4) - 25 -
The proposed Bank loan of US$34.6 million would finance approximately 47% of the total project cost equivalent to 100% of the foreign exchange cost. The Government requests that front end fee, or about US$0.5 million, be financed out of the Bank loan. The proposed Bank loan would be for a period of 15 years, including 3 years grace. Financing for project from sources other than the Bank would be made available in accordance with the schedule of expenditures. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that an updated financing plan, including a revised schedule of expenditures, taking into account the effects of inflation on cost, will be prepared by the Borrower by January 31, each year and submitted to the Bank before March 1 of each year. Assurances were also obtained during negotiations that PBS would provide funds to cover all cost over-runs for completion of the project and request other project financiers to provide, or provide itself funds to cover operating and debt service obligations of W.O.A.E. Semberija, when such funds are not available to it(para 8.01(e)). The procedure to annually update the financing plan and to provide for cost over-runs is in line with the stabilization measures adopted by SFR Yugoslavia and the legal instruments 1/ recently promulgated by the Federal and Republic Governments.
3.20 On-lending Terms. The on-lending rates for borrowed funds which constitute 82% of the project costs, would be as follows: (a) IBRD Funds - Interest at 11.6% plus on-lending margin of 0.5% ani front end fee of 1.5% of the loan; (b) PBS Funds - Interest at minimum of 15%; (c) Federal and Republic Funds - Current interest rates. (d) W.O.A.E. Semberija will bear the foreign exchange risk on IBRD funds.
Assurances were obtained during negotiations that PBS would charge an interest rate of not less than 15% on its domestic funds (para 8.01(f)).This 15% on lending rate for local funds represents a significant increase over the 10% rate charged in recent Bank agricultural projects in SFRY. In the context of future projections of overall inflation rates over the term of the Bank Loan, this on-lending rate of 15% is expected to result in a real positive interest rate. The policy dialogue on interest rates, as initiated under the Fifth Industrial Credit Project, will continue and interest rates in Yugoslavia will be reviewed on an annual basis.
H. Procurement and Retroactive Financing
3.21 During negotiations assurances were obtained that contracts for construction of project works costing about US$48.8 million, and purchase of equipment for operation and maintenance, farm machinery, and agricultural research and extension equipment, for about US$6.0 million would be procured in accordance with procedures consistent with those set forth in the current edition of the Guidelines for Procurement under "World Bank Loans and IDA Credits" published by the Bank in March 1977, on the basis of international competitive bidding (ICB) (para. 8.01(g)). Yugoslav manufacturers offering goods manufactured in Yugoslavia would be allowed a preference of 15% or the
1/ a. Savezni Zakon 0 Odobravanjo Kredita Za Investicije i Obezlijedenje Sredstava Za Pakrice Prekoracenja na b. Republic Zakon Ili Drustveni Dogovor 0 Investicijana (1981) - 26 - applicable customs duty, whichever is lower. However, the pumping stations, costing about US$4.9 million which are on the central path for project completion by 1986, would be procured on the basis of local competitive bidding (LCB) in accordance with local procedures which are acceptable to the Bank. If these pumping stations are not started in early 1982, the entire schedule of construction would have to be extended by another year. In addition mole drains, wide bedding and deep ploughing costing about US$2.5 million, which would be carried out yearly according to requirements, would be procured on the basis of competitive bidding advertised locally and in accordance with local procedure acceptable to the Bank. Details of procurement packages are given in Annex 4, Table 3.
3.22 The Institute for Water Resources Development (IWRD) Sarajevo had been responsible for carrying out the preliminary alternative designs and the feasibility study for the project. The completion of the final designs, cost estimate and bidding documents has also been entrusted to this Institute. Expert engineering services for the project, services of agricultural economic institute and the engineering consultants required for the feasibility studies will be procured in accordance with procedures consistent with those set forth in the current edition of Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers, August, 1981.
3.23 Retroactive financing would be required to cover the expenditures incurred up to the date of signing of the proposed loan, on the following items:
(a) Pumping Stations US$0.4 million (b) Engineering services for final design, cost estimates and bidding documents (para. 3.18) US$1.5 million Total US$1.9 million
I. Implementation Schedule
3.24 The project would be completed in 5 years (1982 to 1986) in accordance with the implementation schedule in Chart 23654. Drainage would become effective in part of the area in 1983 and successive areas would be reclaimed till 1986. An estimated schedule of expenditure is given in Annex 4, Table 2, and the program of drainage and reclamation is given in Annex 5. A summary of both is presented below:
Calendar Year 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 - - - - - US$ Million Equivalent - - - -
Annual estimated expenditure 4.5 19.6 24.7 17.4 7.3 Cummulative expenditure 4.5 24.1 48.8 66.2 73.5
------ha '000-----
Yearly development of
drained area - 3,050 4,610 5,340 2,150 Cumulative development - 3,050 7,600 13,000 15,150 - 27 -
J. Disbursements
3.25 The proposed Bank loan of US$34.6 million would be disbursed over six years as follows:
Amount of the Loan Allocated % of (Expressed Expenditures Category in $ Equiv.) to be Financed
(a) Civil works 21,000,000 45%
(b) Equipment 100% of foreign expenditure and 100% of local 6,000,000 expenditures (ex-factory)
(c) Engineering expert services 100% and training 3,000,000
(d) Feasibility studies 2,700,000 100%
(e) Front-end fee 511,330 Amount due
(f) Unallocated 1,388,670
Total 34,600,000
A tentative disbursement schedule is given in Annex 6. This proposed schedule conforms to the profile for agricultural projects in Yugoslavia.
K. Environmental Impact
3.26 The project is not expected to have any adverse environmental impact on the project area, and is likely to have beneficial effects by providing drainage to the water-logged land in several areas. Most of the flood control works have already been constructed. No detrimental effects on the physical/chemical/biological regime of the water are expected.
L. Role of Women
3.27 The demographic structure by sex and by agricultural population for all of Yugoslavia, SR Bosnia-Herzegovina, and the project area is shown below: - 28 -
SFR Yugoslavia /1 SR Bosnia-Herzegovina Semberija
Total population 22.34 million 4.23 million 17,000
Agricultural pop. as % of total 38 40 88 Women as % of agricultural pop. 53 53 52
Active agricultural population as % of total agricultural population 54 47 50 Women as X of active agricultural population 42 N.A. 36
While opportunities do exist for women outside the agricultural sector, they are active participants in this sector, both in primary production and in agro-industires. Although the number of women in the project area as a percentage of the agricultural population is the same as in SFR Yugoslavia and SR Bosnia-Herzegovina (52%), women as a percentage of the active agricultural population in Bijeljina is 36%, slightly less than for the country as a whole (42%). This is due to low deagrarization and migration tendencies in the area, implying that a large percentage of men earn their livelihood from agriculture. However, as more employment opportunities arise outside the farm sector, women will become even more directly involved in primary production, often assuming responsibilities previously performed by men. It is expected that women will benefit from the increased employment opportunities in primary production as well as in secondary and tertiary industries resulting from both the social and individual sector components of the project (para. 7.02). Women also play an important role in the institutions which are involved in the proposed project, W.O.A.E. Semberija, W.0. Podrinje, W.0. Sava, PBS, and the various agricultural institutes and training centers, and are particularly well represented at the intermediate levels of the professional staff.
/1 Source: Yugoslavia Statistical Yearbook 1981. - 29 -
IV. Agricultural Production
A. Land Use, Cropping Pattern, Yields, and Production
4.01 Land Use - Future. Land use with the project upon completion of the land reclamation and improvement works would be as follows:
Land Use - Future Individual Sector Social Sector Total ha % ha % ha % Agricultural Land Arable 13,070 85.1 2,080 57.0 15,150 79.7 Fruit & grapes 580 3.8 - - 580 3.1 Total Agric. Land 13,650 88.9 2,080 57.0 15,730 82.8
Non Agricultural Land Forests 1,000 6.5 - - 1,000 5.3 Roads, works, farm yards 700 4.6 1,570 43.0 2,270 11.9 Total Non-Agric. Land 1,700 11.1 1,570 43.0 3,270 17.2
Total Land Area 15,350 100.0 3,650 100.0 19,000 100.0
Total arable land would increase from 10,860 ha at present to 15,150 ha with the project. This gain of 4,290 ha would come from land currently abandoned due to waterlogging and the conversion of poor grassland and low yielding, degraded forests and bush into cultivable land. The gain in arable land is 2,940 ha and 1,350 ha for the private and social sectors, respectively. One thousand hectares of forests having commercial value would remain in the individual sector.
4.02 Cropping Pattern and Crop Rotation. Changes in cropping pattern on the arable land from the present to the future with the project at full development are given in Annex 7 and are summarized below: - 30 -
Cropping Pattern Present Situation Future Situation Individual Sector '000 ha % '000 ha % Wheat 2.94 29.0 4.17 31.9 Maize 5.15 50.8 2.91 22.3 Sugarbeet 0.31 3.1 2.92 22.3 Vegetables 0.75 7.4 1.00/1 7.7 Annual fodder 0.18 1.8 0.41 3.1 Perennial forage 0.80 7.9 1.66 12.7 Subtotal 10.13 100.0 13.07 100.0
Social Sector Wheat 0.30 41.1 0.69 33.2 Maize 0.20 27.4 0.69 33.2 Sugarbeet 0.16 21.9 0.70 33.6 Vegetables 0.07 9.6 - - Subtotal 0.73 100.0 2.08 100.0
Both Sectors Combined Wheat 3.24 29.8 4.86 32.1 Maize 5.35 49.3 3.60 23.7 Sugarbeet 0.47 4.3 3.62 23.9 Vegetables 0.82 7.6 1.00 6.6 Annual fodder 0.18 1.6 0.41 2.7 Perennial forage 0.80 7.4 1.66 11.0 Total Arable 10.86 100.0 15.15 100.0
Cereals (maize, wheat) would continue to dominate, occupying over half of the arable land. The most significant innovation is the expansion of sugarbeet, with an eight-fold increase in area, representing 24% of the total arable land at full development. The greatest increase in sugarbeet area (about ten-fold) occurs in the individual sector. Vegetables (7%), fodder (3%) and perennial forage crops (11%), would be grown exclusively in the individual sector. The main crop rotation on social sector land would be a three-year, wheat-maize- sugarbeet rotation, presently applied successfully on large farms in the northern plains of Yugoslavia. This same rotation would be used on about half of the individual sector land, particularly on first class soils. On the remainder, the rotation would be extended to four years using wheat-maize- wheat-sugarbeet, a practice currently adopted by some farmers in the project
/1 Plus 550 ha of second crop cabbage. - 31 -
area having land not affected by waterlogging. Farmers who would also grow fodder and forage crops would follow a five-year rotation on a portion of their land with four years of alfalfa and one year of annual fodder, such as maize for silage or green cut. Vegetable growers would apply a four-year rotation, consisting mainly of potatoes, green pepper, cabbage and tomato. In addition, cabbage would be planted as a second crop on 550 ha, mostly following wheat; a practice currently followed by some individual farmers in the project area.
4.03 Crop Yields. Crop yields would increase with the project due to; (1) improvement in soil-plant-water relations as a result of drainage and land improvement measures; (2) greater and more efficient use of inputs, such as mechanization, fertilizers, certified seed of high yielding varieties, plant protection materials and general cultural practices; (3) an expanded and more efficient extension service; (4) reduction in competition from vegetation in plot boundaries; and (5) better overall farm planning and management resulting in more timely cultural operations. The expected average yields at full development with the project are based on; (1) land capability classes after land reclamation and improvement; (2) experimental results in the project area; (3) yields on farms in and around the project area not affected by waterlogging; (4) and those achieved by progressive farmers. The results of field competitions for individual farmers organized under the auspices of the Commune of Bijeljina are proof that considerable expertise and crop production potential exist in the project area. In these competitions, farmers generally follow the technology proposed by the specialists of the BOAL Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina. The highest yields obtained by winning farmers in the project area are as follows; 1978 1979 1980 Wheat 4.9 - 5.8 5.5 - 7.0 5.0 - 6.0 Maize 11.8 - 12.0 13.9 - 17.8 10.7 - 16.0 Sugarbeet 75.0 73.0 72.0
Experience has demonstrated that, in the absence of waterlogging, results such as these are obtainable because of timely land preparation and planting; use of high yielding varieties; effective weed control and plant protection; and adequate levels of fertilization. Maize yields ranged from 7.1 to 9.8 t/ha on a neighbouring social sector enterprise in areas exceeding 2,000 ha and on land similar to the project area which had been drained. The Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina has reported the following yields from experimental plots: wheat 7-8 t/ha; maize 15-18 t/ha; and sugarbeet 70-80 t/ha. Naturally, yields of this magnitude cannot be expected for the total project area; however, they provide not only a measure of yield potential but also a high degree of confidence that the projected average yields at full development in the project area are attainable. Average yields before the project and those expected at full development with the project are shown below; - 32 -
Average Crop Yields
Present Situation Future With Project …------t/ha ------Individual Sector Wheat 2.7 4.8 Maize 3.3 6.5 Sugarbeet 24.7 50.0 Potatoes 5.3 15.0 Green Pepper 12.5 25.0 Tomatoes 15.2 40.0 Cabbage 30.0 40.0 Cabbage (second crop) 15.0 30.0 Alfalfa (dry weight) 5.4 10.0 Annual fodder (dry weight) 5.8 10.0
Social Sector Wheat 3.0 5.5 Maize 3.4 7.5 Sugarbeet 37.5 55.0
On the average, yields increase 100% with the project and for the three main crops (wheat, maize, sugarbeet), social sector yields are 10 to 15% higher than in the individual sector. Full yield would build up gradually over a period of five years at the rate of 15%, 35%, 55%, 75% and 100% of incremental yields, upon the completion of project works on any given tract of land.
4.04 Agricultural Production. The project would increase agricultural production substantially because of higher per hectare crop yields and increased cropped area. The following table summarizes the annual production of primary products expected from the project. Details are in Annex 8, Tables I to 3. Crop Production Present Future Incremental ------tons ------Food Crops Wheat 8,838 23,811 14,973 Maize 17,675 24,090 6,415 Sugarbeet 13,657 184,500 170,843 Vegetables 10,765 45,000 34,235 Subtotal Food Crops 50,935 277,401 226,466
Non-Food Crops Forage and Grassland 6,368 20,700 14,332 Subtotal Non-Food Crops 6,368 20,700 14,332
Total 57,303 298,101 240,798 - 33 -
B. Farm Inputs
4.05 Fertilizer. Fertilizer application rates with the project are basec on results obtained at the Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina, experience of progressive farmers in the area without drainage problems, and field and laboratory investigations conducted by the Institute of Agropedology, Sarajevo. Full fertilizer use on each crop would build up over five years at the rate of 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100% of the incremental between current and future application rates. Average annual fertilizer rates (expressed as active substance) used at present and those estimated to be optimum levels to achieve crop yields with the project at full development are given in Annex 9, Tables 1, 2, and 3 and are summarized below; Fertilizer Rates Present Future N P205 K20 N P205 K20 ------kg/ha - - - - -…- - - - - Individual Sector Wheat 40 35 30 130 120 120 Maize 50 40 35 140 130 100 Sugarbeet 55 50 60 170 150 240 Vegetables 70 55 55 160 180 185 Alfalfa 25 25 25 25 70 72 Annual fodder 30 30 30 90 125 125
Social Sector Wheat 60 60 55 150 140 120 Maize 60 80 65 170 150 120 Sugarbeet 70 75 60 200 170 290
The total project requirement reflects a significant increase in annual fertilizer useage from 1,355 tons of active substance at present to 6,534 tons at full development (Annex 9). Fertilizer use and crop response will require close monitoring during project implementation through the mechanism of the annual agricultural development plan and the agricultural economic institute (para 4.10). Through the plan it would be possible to modify and refine the fertilizer rates used on crops in any given year, based on actual field results obtained during the previous year.
4.06 Seeds and Plant Protection. Certified seed of high yielding crop varieties would be used by both sectors. It is readily available for all crops that would be grown. W.O.A.E. Semberija produces certified seed of cereals and vegetables for which the Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina provides much of the foundation seed. Besides supplying its own needs, this social enterprise also provides seed to the six BOCFs in the project area, which in turn distributes it through their service shops and warehouses. The sugar mill provides the total requirement for sugarbeet seeds in both sectors. In addition, the Agricultural Institute developed an improved variety of cabbage well adapted to the Semberija plain, of which it produces high quality seed. Judicious use of pesticides, fungicides and weed killers would increase with the project. Plant protection materials for the individual farmers are marketed through the service shops of the BOCFs. - 34 -
4.07 Labor. The project will increase the labor requirement because of the larger area of arable land, the introduction of more labor intensive crops, as sugarbeet and alfalfa; higher crop yields; and more modern and intensive cultural practices. Even with the project, sufficient labour is available for the incremental agricultural production as shown below:
Annual Labour Balance (Future Situation) Available Required Balance Activity ------Man-Year ------
Crop production 3,994 1,770 2,224 Animal husbandry 1,060 1,240 (-) 180 Post farm activities 330 490 (-) 160 Industrial and houshold 1,346 1,346 - 6,730 4,846 1,884 (28% surplus)
4.08 Mechanization. The use of machinery is generally adopted. In the social sector cultural operations and cereal harvesting are almost fully mechanized, while in the individual sector only land preparation and wheat harvesting are done by machines. All remaining operations such as seeding, weeding and vegetable and fodder harvesting are done manually. Individual farmers own 457 tractors, mostly of less than 50 hp, and the W.O. Podrinje, which serves cooperative members, owns 21 tractors. Although the individual sector is well supplied with tractors, many are old and only equipped with the basic implements as plows and harrows. The social sector owns 130 tractors, mostly of the medium type (60-65 hp), and 42 combines, which are also used outside the project area. Many of the tractors are relatively old and not equipped with specialized machinery. The project would provide for a portion of the agricultural equipment requirement that would be needed to manage the increased arable land and the new crops introduced into the cropping pattern, as well as for replacements (para. 3.13 and Annex 3, Table 2). All agricultural equipment to be provided under the project would be acquired by the investor, W.O.A.E. Semberija, who would assign a portion to W.O. Podrinje for use by the individual farmers. Maintenance and servicing of social sector machinery would continue to be done in existing shops of W.O.A.E. Semberija, which are adequately equipped and staffed to handle the increaaed volume with the project. Also, the existing workshops in the project area would maintain the private sector machinery although it would be necessary to train additional machine operators at the Agricultural Education Center.
C. Agricultural Support Services
4.09 W.O. Podrinje and the six BOCFs in the project area would be strengthened to undertake the additional agricultural extension work generated by the project. The number of extension agents in the BOCFs would be increased from the current 30 to 65, corresponding to about 200 ha or about 60 farms per extension agent, and which includes both members and non-members of the BOCFs. The employment of additional extension agents would commence from January 1984, and full strength would be achieved by January 1987. During negotiations, assurances were obtained that funds would be made available by SR Bosnia-Herzegovina for employing extension agents to provide advisory - 35 - services to individual farmers that are not members of the BOCFs (para. 8.01(h)). The main tasks of the extension service would be to advise farmers on improved farming techniques through individual visits, conferences, demonstration plots and field days. Extension work would concentrate more specificially on new crops as sugarbeet and fodder crops and on intensification of production of crops now under cultivation. Technical backstopping to the extension service would be.provided by the Agricultural Institute of Bijeljina. The linkage of the extension agents to the research and training facilities would be institutionalized through regular courses, seminars and contacts with research institutes' faculties and other relevant institutes in Bijeljina and SR Bosnia-Herzegovina. To enable the Agricultural Institute to perform its task in a systematic and effective manner, it would be necessary to strengthen it with additional staff and materials. This additional staff, consisting mainly of agronomists, would be responsible for coordinating the research activities of the Institute and the extension work requirements, preparing extension materials for the extension agents, providing training on specific topics to them, and generally assisting the extension service with field demonstrations and other related activities with the farmers. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that this additional staff would be acquired (para. 8.01(i)). The project would provide vehicles, audio-visual aids, office and laboratory equipment for the extension and research programs (para. 3.14, Annex 3, Table 3).
4.10 On-farm agricultural development is vital to the success of the project since the benefits of the project will accrue from increased primary production, upon the completion of flood control, drainage, and land reclamation and improvement works. To ensure adequate on-farm agricultural development BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija (para. 5.03) in collaboration with W.O. Podrinje, would prepare annual plans for agricultural production in the project area. These plans would be based on market projections, raw material requirements of UPI's food processing plants and produce market distribution network, as well as the social sector and individual farmers' own needs. The plans would be formalized through crop contracts with the individual farmers. In addition, the plans would specify the following requirements: cropping pattern; expected crop yields and production; inputs such as fertilizers, seed and plant protection materials; and farmer credit. The annual plans would be approved by the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina by January 31, each year, and implemented by W.O. Podrinje and W.O.A.E. Semberija under guidance of the Project Advisory Committee (para 5.04). The agricultural director of the BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija (para 5.03) would be responsible for consolidating and supervising the annual plans of agricultural production and forwarding these to the Bank through W.O.A.E. Semberija. In addition, an agricultural economic institute would be employed by W.O.A.E. Semberija not later than July 31, 1983, to undertake the annual monitoring and evaluation of the agricultural development plan and to make suitable recommendations for improvement. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that annual plans of agricultural production would be submitted to the Bank by October 31 (first plan due October 31, 1983) and that W.O.A.E. Semberija would employ a suitable economic institute to carry out the monitoring and evaluation functions (para. 8.01(j)). The annual report on monitoring and evaluation of the benefits of the annual agricultural development plan would be submitted to the Bank. - 36 -
V. Project Organization and Implementatior
A. The Borrower
5.01 Privredna Banka Sarajevo - Udruzena Banka (PBS). Privredna Banka Sarajevo - Udruzena Banka (PBS) would be the borrower of the proposed loan and would enter into a subsidiary loan agreement with W.O.A.Es Semberija, the sole investor. The execution of this agreement on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank would be a condition of effectiveness (para. 8.02). PBS would on-lend the Bank funds, together with its own resources and funds from the Federal and Republic sources, to W.O.A.E. Semberija, the investor, under terms set forth in para 3.20, On-Lending Terms. The organization, management, business policies and financial condition of PBS are satisfactory to the Bank. In previous Bank financed credit type projects, performance of PBS has been somewhat lacking; however, increased staffing agreed under other recent projects to strengthen the supervision and disbursements and repayments units would help project implementation in the future. The role of PBS in this project would be confined to that of an on-lending bank for construction of infrastructure and would not involve any sub-project appraisals.
B. Implementing Agencies and Responsibilities
5.02 W.O.A.E. Semberija. W.O.A.E. Semberija would be the investor and would be solely responsible for carrying out the entire project. Pursuant to the self-management agreement it has entered into with all project financiers it has thereby been vested with the authority to be the sole investor (para. 8.0l(k)(i)). The Bank and W.O.A.E. Semberija and the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina would sign a project agreement at the time of signature of the loan agreement; (para. 8.01(k)(ii)) and W.O.A.E. Semberija would sign the subsidiary loan agrement (para. 8.02) with PBS, the borrower. As the investor, W.O.A.E. Semberija would have the direct responsibility to:
(a) finalize designs and *preparebid documents for all contracts;
(b) ensure procurement for construction of drainage and flood control works;
(c) oversee subsoil drainage;
(d) coordinate and supervise construction on all other project related works such as buildings and roads and all additional procurement including farm machinery, construction equipment, operation and maintenance equipment, and equipment for extension and research.
(e) ensure on-farm agricultural development in collaboration with W.O. Podrinje. W.O.A.E. Semberija would enter into a self-management agreement with W.O. Podrinje to ensure on-farm agricultural development such as preparation of annual agricultural production plans and engagement of an agricultural economic institute to undertake the preparation and annual monitoring and evaluation of these plans (para 4.10). - 37 -
W.O.A.E. Semberija is considered to be a suitable organization to act as investor and to carry out the project. Balance sheet and income statement indicate that W.O.A.E. Semberija would have adequate financial resources to provide its share of the project investment.
5.03 BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija. During negotiations W.O.A.E. Semberija informed the Bank that BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija has been established and shall be maintained in operation within its organization. The BOAL shall be responsible for the implementation of the entire project. This BOAL would be headed on a full-time basis by an engineer, assisted by, among others, a financial director and an agricultural director whose qualifications and experience shall be acceptable to the Bank. A proposed organizational chart of this new BOAL is presented in Chart 23657. Following the completion of construction of civil works, the staff of this BOAL would be absorbed by BOAL Water Management Semberija to cover its additional operation and maintenance staff requirements. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that except as the Bank shall otherwise agree SR Bosnia-Herzegovina shall not take or concur in any action which would result in the dissolution or disestablishment of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija or in the suspension of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija's operations (para. 8.01(1)). The Republic would sign an agreement of obligations at the time of signature of the loan agreement, which, inter alia, would include this obligation (para. 8.01(1)).
5.04 Project Advisory Committee. During negotiations, assurances were obtained that a Project Advisory Committee (PAC) would be established by the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina by October 31, 1983, chaired by the Mayor of the Commune or another suitable person and composed of the President of the Executive Committee, the Chairmen of the Working Councils of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija, W.O. Podrinje, W.O. Sava, SIZ and BOAL Water Management Semberija (para. 8.01(m)). A representative of the local basic Privredna Bank would participate in the Committee Meetings when financial or related matters come under discussion. The Director of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija would act as Secretary to the Committee. The PAC would meet three to four times a year and provide an opportunity for coordination of project activities among the entities concerned and the beneficiaries.
5.05 W.O. Podrinje. W.O. Podrinje would be responsible for on-farm agricultural production plans. Agricultural extension would be provided to all individual farmers through W.O. Podrinje and the six BOCFs in the project area, which would be suitably strengthened to carry out this function (para. 4.09). W.O. Podrinje's financial condition is satisfactory to the Bank and would allow it to fully carry out its responsibilities under the project.
C. Operation and Maintenance
5.06 The overall control for operation and maintenance of project works upon completion would rest with BOAL Water Management Semberija, which is located in Bijeljina. It is currently in charge of the existing drainage - 38 - channels and two pumping stations in the project area. To meet the increased needs, additional staff, operation and maintenance equipment, and buildings would be provided under the project. The annual operation and maintenance cost of the project works is estimated at Din. 23.8 million (US$0.5million). 0 & M cost per hectare works out to Din. 1,574 (US$ 36.0) Details of the estimate are given in Annex 10. Assurances have been obtained during negotiations that SIZ Bosnia-Herzegovina shall provide funds for covering the operating and maintenance costs of the Sava River Dike, the main drains, the flood canals and the pumping stations and W.O. Semberija and W.O. Podrinje would provide the funds for the operating and maintenance cost of the remaining project works (para. 8.01(n)).
D. Accounts and Audits
5.07 Privredna Banka Sarajevo, W.O.A.E. Semberija, and BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija would maintain separate accounts for the Project. Those of W.O.A.E. Semberija and its new BOAL would be open for inspection at any time.
5.08 As required by Yugoslav law, all banks and enterprises are audited annually by the Social Accounting Service (SDK), whose methods are acceptable to the Bank. Privredna Banka Sarajevo would submit its audited accounts to the Bank within six months of the close of each fiscal year. W.O.A.E. Semberija and BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija would submit their audited accounts to the Bank within eight months of the close of each fiscal year. Assurances were obtained to this effect during negotiations (para 8.01(o)), and the first such audits would be done on June 30, 1983 and August 31, 1983 respectively.
E. Project Monitoring and Completion Report
5.09 Project Monitoring and Key Project Indicators. PBS, in cooperation with W.O.A.E. Semberija, would submit quarterly and annual reports to the Bank, the information necessary to measure systematically project execution against the proposed implementation schedule, and project performance after completion of construction against project benefits foreseen during appraisal. The reports would include data on the progress of construction of all physical facilities under various project components, progress in the procurement of equipment materials, and data on project expenditures. Agricultural data indicating the areas reclaimed and drained, cropping patterns applied, crop yields and output, and information on the operation and maintenance costs of irrigation and drainage works would be submitted annually. Assurances were obtained during negotiations for the timely submission of the reports, and in a format acceptable to the Bank (para. 8.01(p)).
5.10 Project Completion Report. Promptly after completion of the project, but no later than six months after the closing date, PBS in cooperation with W.O.A.E. Semberija would prepare and furnish to the Bank a report on the execution and initial operation of the project, its costs and the benefits derived and to be derived from it. The report would also discuss the performance by the Bank PBS, W.O.A.E. Semberija, Commune - 39 - .
Assembly of Bijelijinaand SR Bosnia-Herzegovina,their respective obligationsunder the proposed loan agreement, project agreement and agreementwith SR Bosnia-Herzegovina,and the accomplishmentof the purposes of the proposed loan. During negotiationsassurances were obtained for the timely submissionof the report, and in a format acceptable to the Bank (para. 8.01(p)). - 40 -
VI. Marketing, Farm Incomes, Project Charges and Financial Analysis A. Marketing Prospects, Processing Requirements and Storage
6.01 The main marketing channels for project output would be those prevailing in and close to the city of Bijeljina and the project area. There are four existing major processing plants; all are Work Organizations within COAL UPI and are operating much below capacity. They consist of a sugar factory, flour mill, animal feed mill and vegetable canning factory. Fresh produce would reach the local and regional markets or supply the retail outlets and supermarkets associated with UPI's food distribution system. In addition, there is a vegetable dehydration plant with a 12,000 ton raw material capacity, which is one of the BOALs of UPI, located in Janja, 25 km from the project area. Raw matarial requirements are now supplied from the region around Janja; however, in the future the project area also may provide vegetables. The disposal pattern of primary production from the project by sectors is shown below:
Processing Wholesale/Retail Local Market Own Needs Total
Wheat Individual 75 9 - 16 100 Social 92 - - 8 100
Maize Individual 53 15 - 32 100 Social 95 - - 5 100
Vegetables Individual 44 13 35 8 100
The entire sugarbeet crop would be processed and all forage and fodder would be used for domestic needs. The sugar factory (400,000 tons input capacity) which began pilot production in 1979, has operated at less than 30% of its capacity because of raw material shortage. Financial losses have been great. The vegetable canning factory, which currently processes 8,000 tons of raw material and is operating at 90% of capacity, plans to double its capacity by 1985. It has static cold storage capacity of 3,500 tons and normal storage of 6,300 tons. The flour mill, which also includes an industrial bakery and concentrate animal feed mill currently operating at 90% capacity, handles 36,000 tons of cereal grains with a 35% increase planned for 1985 along with grain and flour silos currently under construction with capacities of 15,000 and 2,000 tons, respectively. W.O.A.E. Semberija has its own facilities for handling cereals (maize silos for 300 tons, corn cribs for 12,000 tons, warehouse with 500 m 2, cereal driers for 346 tons per 24 hours), mixing animal feed (90 tons per 24 hours), and for treating seeds (3,000 m 2). Even after full project development the requirements of the processing facilities in the area would only be partially met (wheat 62%, maize 65%, sugarbeet 72%, and vegetables 41%). Additional primary production would be supplied from other areas in Bijeljina and adjacent communes. W.O. Podrinje and the six BOCFs in the project area serve an important role in marketing of produce through crop contracts with the individual farmers. One of the primary functions of the BOCFs is the collection and purchase of contracted cereals, - 41 - sugarbeets and vegetables at collection stations, of which there are 56 in the region with a total covered storage capacity of 9,400 m2 for cereals and vegetables. In summary, no problems are anticipated with the disposal of the incremental production from the project area.
B. Farm Income
6.02 There are approximately 4,700 agricultural farm families in the individual sector, with an average farm size of 3.5 ha. The 1981 agricultural annual income per capita for farmers is approximately $350. Another 20% of the family income accrues from sources outside the farm. A budget and cash flow statement have been prepared (Annex 11), for a representative individual sector farm of 3.5 hectares. The arable area under the project would increase from 2.7 ha to 3.3 ha. Revenues and agricultural production costs are an average per hectare, based on the financial analysis model prepared for the individual sector (para 6.08). As a result of the project, the value of crop production (i.e. crop revenues) increases by 223% while agricultural production costs increase by only 125%. Farm family annual income from crop production (before subtraction of home consumption) at full development will increase by over 300%. Assuming a farm family of 4 persons, the per capita annual income from crop production (including home consumption) will rise from about 9,166 Dinars (US$210) to about 27,735 Dinars (US$635) at full development during payment of project levy, and to Dinars 40,808 (US$934) once the project levy terminates. The cash flows (after subtraction of home consumption) indicates that farmers will be in a liquid financial position throughout the project. Their incremental cash flow, after payment of the project levy and the operation and maintenance charge, is positive in all years except the first and second years of land development, when the farmer would pay his 50% of the land consolidation cost.
C. Project Charges and Recovery
6.03 Investment Recovery. The capital costs would be financed by 18% equity contribution, 18% by grant and 64% by borrowed funds (para. 3.19). Debt service (principal and interest) on these loans (except for land consolidation) would be recovered from project beneficiaries in the form of an annual per hectare project levy which would be charged commencing two years after completion of construction. Assurances have been obtained during negotiations that if the project levy is not sufficient to cover the full debt service assumed by W.O.A.E. Semberija, the Commune of Bijeljina or PBS would provide necessary funds to W.O.A.E. Semberija (para. 8.01(q)). 50% of the cost of land consolidation would be repaid by the farmers in 2 equal amounts in the year their land is consolidated and in the following one. The remaining 50% would be given as a grant by the municipality budget. The project levy for the social sector is expected to be about 29,770 Dinars/hectare, and that for the individual sector, 16,730 Dinars/hectare at full development. As is required by Yugoslav law, this project levy would be expected to cover full debt service amortization. The levy in the social sector is higher as all sub-surface drainage is located therein. Farm equipment, operation and maintenance equipment, and equipment for extension - 42 - and research services would be financed and procured by the invester, W.O.A.E. Semberija (para. 5.02). During negotiations assurances have been obtained that W.O.A.E. Semberija would transfer them in a timely manner to W.O. Podrinje, BOAL Water Management Semberija and W.O. Research and Development Institute, including its BOAL Agricultural Institute, respectively, through separate self-management agreements acceptable to the Bank (para. 8.01)(r). These self-management agreements would set down the terms and conditions of the internal cost recovery of this equipment.
6.04 Land Tax. The individual farmers pay a land tax calculated on the basis of the cadastral value of the land determined every few years by local authorities according to the land's estimated productivity. Land tax is directed towards social services such as education, health insurance, and to SIZ. This tax is paid to local communities and therefore any incremental land tax revenue accruing to these communities as a result of the project can be considered to be an indirect recovery of capital outlays made on behalf of the individual sector from community budgets. It is estimated that this tax would increase as a result of the improvement in the land from the current level of 1,350 Dinars/hectare to 1,850 Dinars/hectare at full development.
6.05 Social Sector Income Tax. All agricultural social sector enterprises in SR Bosnia Herzegovina pay a tax equal to 10.2% of revenue less agricultural production and operation and maintenance costs. This tax is applied to health, insurance, and education services, Republic taxes and water contribution. As would be the case for land taxes, any incremental income tax revenue accruing to the commune as a result of the project would be considered an indirect recovery of project costs.
6.06 Operation and Maintenance Recovery. Operation and maintenance costs associated with the drainage system would be recovered commencing in 1984 through an appropriate annual per hectare charge collected by the local fiscal agency of the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina for administration of funds, calculated to be 1,350 Dinars/hectare for the individual sector and 2,979 Dinars/hectare for the social sector at full development. The social sector would bear the maintenance and operation costs of the sub-surface drains. Collection from the individual sector farmers would be based on 'an ability to pay' and on the intention of providing an incentive for these farmers to participate in the project. The operation and maintenance charge would be approximately 6% of a typical individual sector farmer's incremental cash flow at full development during payment of the project levy and 4% thereafter (Farm Model - Annex 11). This incremental cash flow would be sufficient to pay these charges during all years. However, since operation and maintenance charges begin in year 2 of construction, while the farmers do not obtain benefits from their land until year 3 when land is brought into the project stream, some subsidy would be required during this year. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that any operation and maintenance deficits during the period of construction of the drainage works would be covered by provision of additional funds by the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina and the Borrower (para. 8.01(s)). - 43 -
6.07 Recovery Index. Based on the project levy and the operation and maintenance charge, two recovery indices have been calculated. The cost recovery index measures, in present value terms and in constant prices, the extent to which the outlays are covered through project related charges. The numerator is composed of the project levy, operation and maintenance charge and incremental income and land tax collected from the project. The denominator consists of the total operation and maintenance costs and the investment costs after subtraction of the social sector 18% equity contribution, and 18% grants, and 100% of land consolidation costs/l. This ratio discounted at 12%, denominated in constant prices, indicate a cost recovery of 41% of the investment. Alternatively, if this project levy is defined to recover the public sector grants, the cost recovery index would be 29%. The second index, the project charges versus incremental benefits ratio, shows what percentage of the farmer's incremental cash flow goes toward payment of project related charges. It divides the present value of the project related charges (in constant prices) paid by the individual sector farms, by the present value of his incremental benefits over the life of the project, discounted at 12%. If the project levy is designed not to recover the grants, the ratio is 17%, indicating that the farmer retains a high portion of his incremental income to provide incentive for him to participate in the project. Once the project levy is redefined to include recovery of the grant, the ratio increases to 24%. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that these calculations of farmers' disposal income and the recovery indices would be annually carried out by the agricultural economic institute (para. 7.03) simultaneously with the annual agricultural development plan (para. 4.10) and would be prepared and submitted annually in a manner acceptable to the Bank. These studies on cost recovery are expected to reflect the effect of annual inflation on project charges.
D Financial Analysis
6.08 Summary financial results based on final prices prevailing in Yugoslavia (Annex 12) are given below in para. 6.09. The base financial rates of return (FRR) for the individual sector -- 20%, the social sector -- 14% and the project as a whole -- 19% exceed both the current blend on-lending rate of 11.43% and the opportunity cost of capital (OCC) of 12% by a reasonable margin, indicating that the project is financially viable. The lower rate of return for the social sector correlates with a higher financial investment cost per ha (not including price contingencies) - 177,380 Dinars/hectare or $4,061/hectare for the social sector, versus 129,973 Dinaras/hectare or $2,976/hectare for the individual sector - because the social sector will bear the entire cost of sub-surface drainage on 1,500 hectares. (Annex 13, Tables I to 3)
6.09 The financial performance of the project components is scrutinized by sensitivity analysis assuming plausible changes in cost and benefit estimates and by examining the main switching values. The lower FRR for the social sector component implies that all its switching values will be lower than those of the individual sector component. The project is relatively
/1 The investment costs include interest during construction and physical contingencies, but exclude price contingencies. - 44 - insensitive to adverse changes in investment and agricultural production costs, with rates of return remaining well above the OCC (Opportunity Cost of Capital) and on-lending rate. Indeed, the switching value for investment costs for the project as a whole is 81%. The project is most sensitive to changes in revenues as is usually the case in agricultural projects. This is because the revenue stream is the most significant one in the project; the NPV of the revenue stream is 2.5 times that of agricultural production costs. However, even if the operating margin were to be squeezed by 20% (revenues down 10%, agricultural production costs up 10%), the FRR for the total project would be 14%. Revenues of the individual sector can decline by 20%, those of the social sector by 7% and those of the total project by 19%, before the FRR would equal the OCC.
Table - Financial Analysis - Summary Results
FRR Individual Sector Social Sector Total ------percent------Project
Base case 20 14 19 Revenues - 10% 16 10 15 Revenues - 10%, agr. prod. costs + 10% (operating margin) 14 8 14 Revenues lag 1 year 15 10 14 Revenues lag 2 years 12 8 11 Revenues lag 1 year, agr. prod. cost lag 1 yr. 16 12 16 Agr. prod. costs up 10% 18 12 17 Investment costs up 20% 17 12 16 Investment costs lag 1 year, revenues lag 1 yr 16 11 16 Investment costs up 10% and revenues down 10% 15 9 14
Switching values (Opportunity Cost of Capital of 12%)
Investment costs +86 +17 +74 Operating costs +50 +13 +45 Revenues -24% -19 -6 -17 - 45 -
VII. Project Justification
A. Benefits.
7.01 Production and Foreign Exchange. The quantifiable benefits from the proposed project derive from the development of currently unexploited and/or underutilized land resources in the Semberija basin. The drainage works, land consolidation, and amelioration will permit more productive cropping patterns and will result in improved and stable yields on an area of some 19,100 ha. Arable land will increase by a total of 4,290 ha -- 2,940 ha for the individual sector and 1,350 ha for the social sector. In total, the project at full development would generate annually, as its principal economic benefit, an estimated 15,000 tons of incremental wheat, 6,400 tons of maize, 170,800 tons of sugarbeet as well as increased production of various vegetables and an assortment of fodder crops primarily for on-farm consumption. Much of the output of major crops is intended for domestic use and for the raw material supply of sugarbeet to the new sugar factory in the project area which is presently operating at very low capacity utilization. In addition, the production of maize will contribute to foreign exchange earnings for Yugoslavia, while increased self-sufficiency in wheat, and industrial crops will help to save foreign exchange. The indirect effects on livestock production and its increased export potential are also an important consideration in view of the incremental production of fodder crops (14,300 tons). These increases are particularly noteworthy given Yugoslavia's 1980 trade deficit of Dinars 149.6 billion (US$5.0 billion)/l. The Government of SFRY expects this situation to be reversed over the course of the plan period, and the agricultural sector's contribution to an improved trade balance is significant; a 60% planned increase in the value of agricultural exports and a 25% decrease in agricultural imports.
7.02 Employment and Income Effects. Of the 17,000 people in the project area, approximately 15,000 or 90% subsist on agriculture. The active available rural population in the area amounts to 6,730 worker/years equivalent (based on an average 8 hr/day, 216 days/year) but only 42% of that group presently have full yearly employment in agriculture. As agricultural production expands, employment opportunities directly involved in individual sector agriculture will increase by about 25%, with the largest increase in crop production which accounts for 50% of total employment in agriculture. Secondary and tertiary industries such as food processing, expanded sales of produce in local markets, transportation services, and equipment maintenance and operation, etc.,would also develop thereby increasing further opportunities for economic growth and employment. These activities would help to alleviate the high unemployment in agriculture (28%) that is expected to remain even after full implementation of the project. The breakdown of activities by those employed without and with the project is shown on the following page.
/1 IFS, Vol. XXXV, No. 2, February 1982, page 435. - 46 -
Agricultural Employment Possibilities For Individual Sector /1
No. of Share of No. of Share of Total Type of Jobs With- Total Jobs With Total Incre- Activity out Project Employment Project Employment mental man-year % (man-year % (man-year equivalent) equivalent) equivalent)
Animal production 1,060 37.2 1,240 35.4 180 Post farm activities 330 11.6 490 14.0 160 Crop production 1,460 51.2 1,770 50.6 310 2,850 100.0 3,500 100.0 650
Total available active popula- tion 6,730 6,730 Of which employed in agriculture 2,850 42.4 3,500 52.1
Employed in industry or household activities 1,346 20.0 1,346 20.0
Unemployed or underemployed 2,534 38.0 1,884 28.0
Finally, direct employment from the actual construction and future maintenance of the drainage system including land improvement and civil works will also create 65 additional highly skilled and skilled jobs. The gross value of production (at constant 1981 dollars) by the time of full project implementation would increase by about 227% (US$20.0 million) for the project as a whole and 210% for the individual sector. As a result, the project would create a more viable financial base for some 4,700 farm families, subsisting on an average estimated per capita income of US$440. Target per capita income for SFRY is about US$850 (1980). (See para. 6.02 on-farm incomes)
/1 Source: Preparation Reports, Annexes I and 6. - 47 -
7.03 Institution Building. Because crop performance is vital to the success of this project, explicit provisions have been made to ensure intensive on-farm development and adequate extension service to the individual sector through existing institutions. Most of this work is to be carried out through the farm cooperative, W.O. Podrinje, thereby enhancing the importance of organized cooperation both among the individual farmers themselves and with the social sector organizations. In this way, the agricultural part of the project's implementation will give various institutions in the area greater responsibilities for the promotion of increased crop production. Some of these in addition to W.O. Podrinje include: Agricultural Research and Training Centers; the BOCFs in charge of extension; W.O.A.E. Semberija, the investor; and the Commune Asaembly of Bijeljina. An independent agricultural economic institute will also be selected to prepare for monitoring and evaluating the agricultural production plans of the BOCFs. As concerns the technical implementation of the project, a new BOAL will be created having full responsibility for the completion of the drainage system, land amelioration and civil works. The increased strength and stature of these institutions should improve relations between social and individual sector farmers and also help to facilitate the process of land consolidation which is essential to a more efficient use of agricultural land in Semberija and in the Republic as a whole.
B. Economic Analysis
7.04 Paramaters for Evaluation. About 80% of the area planted at full project development is for cereals and industrial crops which have been priced as tradeables based on their border equivalent values with adjustment for transportation. The economic value of fertilizers has also been based on border price equivalents and adjusted accordingly. (Annex 14) Changes in international input and output prices, as forecast by the Bank's Commodities and Export Projections Division, are incorporated over time. The financial prices of all other goods and services are those presently prevailing in SR Bosnia-Herzegovina and are converted to economic values by applying the appropriate conversion factors. The factors used in the economic analysis are consistent with those used in previous projects in Yugoslavia (Annex 14). The economic evaluation of the project has been done using internal Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and Net Present Value (NPV) estimations. (Annex 15) Benefits quantified include gross revenues from sales or consumption of incremental output from project investments. Costs quantified cover all capital and operating costs, inclusive of physical contingencies of about 15%. The project would have an anticipated life of 40 years with year I of the project 1982 corresponding to the first year of construction. Project implementation would require five years for construction (1982-1986) and six years after land becomes available for crop production to reach full expected yields. The resulting internal rates of return for the project are summarized in the following table. - 48 -
Economic Analysis
ERR %
Base case 20.8 Benefits - 10% 17.0 Operating costs + 10%. 19.4 Investment costs + 20% 18.0 Benefits lag one year 15.6 Benefits - 10% and investment costs + 10% 15.8 Investment Costs and Benefits lag one year 17.3
Switching Values (12% Opportunity Cost for Capital)
Benefits -22.4 Investment costs +95.5 Operation and maintenance costs +1,252.5 Operating costs +62.2 Net present value at 12% 1,184,961.5 (Din. '000)
7.05 Sensitivity Analysis. The economy of Yugoslavia would realize an economic rate of return from total project investments of about 21%. Sensitivity tests were performed to assess the impact of variations in incremental cost and benefit streams on the project's viability. Switching values were also calculated assuming a 12% opportunity cost for capital. The test results and switching values demonstrate that the project can bear a relatively large amount of shock and still retain economic viability. For example, assuming a 12% rate of return, investment costs would have to increase by about 95%. The Switching Values also indicate that the project would remain economically attractive with up to a 22% reduction in crop benefits. (Annex 15)
7.06 Risks. Full realization of estimated benefits is dependent upon successful implementation of the drainage program with complementary strong institutional support and effective agricultural extension for the individual sector. The Yugoslav parties concerned including the Investor, other social sector organizations, and SR Bosnia-Herzegovina are giving high priority to institution building. The institution selected to hold primary implementation responsibility would be an independent BOAL, headed on a full-time basis by an engineer, and assisted by, among others, a financial director and an agricultural director. All technology for the project is already in existence within SFRY and therefore can be viewed in operation. The project also contains provision for farm machinery to complement and replace worn out existing equipment. The number of extension agents serving the individual sector has been significantly increaaed to include all individual sector farmers, not only those dealing with the social sector. The incorporation into the project design of agricultural production plans in the individual and social sectors which would be prepared annually and monitored and evaluated by an independent agricultural economic institute would ensure balanced cropping patterns, secure markets, guaranteed inputs and access to the latest agricultural technology. - 49 -
Among its objectives, the monitoring of inputs will be particularly important because the projected yields at full development require a significant increase in fertilizer use.
7.07 Project procurement has been advanced in order to minimize implementation delays and cost over-runs which have occurred in the SFRY as a result of high domestic inflation. Inflation is expected to slow down. Import restrictions which have resulted from counter-inflationary measures had hampered implementation of all Bank-financed projects in Yugoslavia. However, the Federal Government has recently decided to exempt Bank project-related imports. With the above measures, no significant risks are anticipated in project execution and realization of benefits. - 50 -
VIII. Summary of Agreements Reached
8.01 During negotiations, the following assurances and agreements were obtained.
Assurances and Agreements
(a) Field experiments and data collection on the performance of alternative designs would be continued during this project to provide the basis for economic designs for future sub-surface drainage works in the Sava River Basin (para. 3.06). (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(b) Feasibility studies for future projects would be completed by consulting engineers acceptable to the Bank by December 31, 1985 to be employed by December 31, 1982 (para. 3.15). (From; PBS)
(c) Land consolidation would be carried out under the auspices of the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina and if the proposed schedule is not met, the Commune Assembly would acquire the land falling under drainage infrastructure in accordance with Yugoslav law to avoid any delays in the implementation of the drainage project. (para. 3.16). (From: Commune)
(d) All final designs, cost estimates, and bidding documents would be completed prior to Board presentation to meet the requirementa of OMS 2.28 (para 3.17). (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(e) An updated financing plan including a revised schedule of expenditures would be prepared annually and furnished to the Bank by March 1. Financing for any cost over-runs would be provided by PBS, as well as funds for operating and debt service obligations of W.O.A.E. Semberija, when such funds are not available to it. (para. 3.19) (From: PBS)
(f) The on-lending rate set by PBS to the investor W.O.A.E. Semberija on domestic (PBS) fund would not be less than 15% (para. 3.20). (From: PBS)
(g) Procurement of equipment and works listed in Annex 4, Table 3 would be arranged following interational competitive bidding in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines (except for the procurement of pumping stations, mole drainage, wide bedding and deep ploughing) (para 3.21). (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(h) Funds would be made available by SR Bosnia-Herzegovina for employing additional extension agents to provide advisory services to all farmers who are not members of the BOCFs (para. 4.09). (From: SR Bosnia-Herzegovina) - 51 -
(i) Additional staff would be employed by W.O. Podrinje in order to carry out the coordination of research activities, extension work requirements, and other related duties (para. 4.09). (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija) (j) W.O.A.E. Semberija would submit the annual plans of agricultural production to the Bank by October 31, each year, commencing 1983, and would employ by July 31, 1983 a suitable agricultural economic institute to assist in the preparation of the plans and carry out the monitoring and evaluation functions as well as an annual economic and financial analysis for determining the recovery indices. (para. 4.10) (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(k) (i) Prior to Board presentation, W.O.A.E. Semberija would enter into a self-management agreement with all project financiers whereby it would be vested with the authority to be the sole investor (para 5.02); (from: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(ii) The Bank, W.O.A.E. Semberija and the Commune Assembly of Bijeljina would sign a project agreement at the time of signature of the loan agreement (para. 5.02);
(1) Except as the Bank shall otherwise agree, SR Bosnia-Herzegovina shall not take or concur in any action which would result in the dissolution or disestablishment of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija or in the suspension of BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija's operations and that the Republic would sign an agreement of obligations at the time of signature of the loan agreement which, inter alia, would include this obligation (para. 5.03). (From; SR Bosnia-Herzegovina)
(m) A Project Advisory Committee (PAC) would be established in Bijeljina by October 31, 1983 chaired by the Mayor of the Commune or another suitable person and composed of the President of the Executive Committee, the Chairmen of the Working Councils of BOAL Hydromelioration, W.O. Podrinje, W.O. Sava, SIZ, and BOAL Water Management Semberija (para. 5.04). (From: Commune)
(n) BOAL Water Management Semberija would be responsible for operation and maintenance of the project works. SIZ shall provide funds for covering the operating and maintenance cost of the Sava River dike, the main drains, the flood canals and the pumping stations and W.O. Semberija and W.0. Podrinje would provide the operation and maintenance cost of the remaining project works. (para. 5.06) (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija) - 52 -
(o) A report on prolect accounts and annual financial statements of PBS, W.O.A.E. Semberija and BOAL Hydromelioration Semberija audited by the SDK, would be aubmitted to the Bank annually: PBS - within six months of the close of the Yugoalav fiscal year. W.O.A.E. Semberija and BOAL Hydromelioration - within eight months of the close of the Yugoslav fiscal year. (para. 5.08) (From: PBS, W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(p) PBS, in cooperation with WOO.A.E. Semberija would submit quarterly, annual, and project completion reports presented in a format acceptable to the Bank, concerning project performance after completion of construction (para. 5.09 and 5.10). (From; PBS, W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(q) In case the project levy is not sufficient to cover the full debt services assumed by W.O.A.E. Semberija, the Commune of Bijeljina or PBS would provide necessary funds to the W.O.A.E. Semberija. (para. 6.03) (From: Commune and PBS)
(r) Farm equipment, operation and maintenance equipment and the equipment for extension services would be financed and procured by W.O.A.E. Semberija and transferred in a timely manner to W.O. Podrinje, BOAL Water Management Semberija and the W.O. Research and Development Institute, including its BOAL Agricultural Institute, respectively, through separate self-management agreements acceptable to the Bank. (para. 6.03) (From: W.O.A.E. Semberija)
(s) The drainage levy shall be set at levels acceptable and in a manner which shall provide farmers in the individual sector incentives to participate in the benefits of the project and will take into consideration the farmers ability to pay. Operation and maintenance deficits if any during the period of construction of the drainage works would be covered by provision of additional funds by the Commune and the Borrower (para. 6.06). (From: Commune, Borrower)
8.02 The execution and authorization of a subsidiary loan agreement between PBS and W.O.A.E. Semberija on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank will be condition of effectiveness.
8.03 With the above assurances and agreements, the project is suitable for Bank loan of US$34.6 million to Privredna Banka Sarajevo - Udruzena Banka, the major portion of which will be on lent to W.O.A.E. Semberija. - 53 -
Annex 1 APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Climatological Data /1
Average Temperature Average Rainfall °C mm
January -0.8 50
February 1.7 50
March 5.7 45
April 11.2 63
May 15.7 75
June 19.3 88
July 20.8 73
August 20.5 70
September 16.8 52
October 11.3 51
November 6.4 68
December 1.6 65
Average Annual 10.8
Total Annual 750
/1 Based on 25 years data collected at the Bijeljina Meterological Station about 10 km from the project area - 54 - Annex 2
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Data on Pumping Stations
Designed Units Pumping Catchment Discharge Designed No. & Capacity Stations Area m3 /sec Lift of each No. & Name (ha) Old New Total (m) in m3/sec Remarks
Western Sub-area
1. Domuz--Skela 1,400 2.8 - 2.8 3.26 2x1.4 Along Sava dike
2. Topolovac 4,370 3.3 5.7 9.0 3.72 (old) 2x1.65 (old) do 4.67 (new) 3xl.9 (new)
Eastern Sub-area
3. Begov Put 9,800 - 15.3 15.3 2.27 4x3.4+lxl.7 - do -
Total 15,570 6.1 21.0 27.1 12 units - 55 - Annex 3 Table 1 APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA
Operation and Maintenance Equipment and Experimental Equipment for Field Drains
Estimated Estimated Item Quantity Unit Cost Total Cost - - - - Din. '000- - -
Mowers (Universal) 4 700 2,800
Mowers (small) 4 125 500
Motorcycle 7 40 280
Graders 1 3,000 3,000
Excavators 1 2,800 2,800
High pressure pipe cleaner with nozzles, etc. 1 1,200 1,200
Trucks 1 1,500 1,500
Drain-master for field drains 1 8,650 8,650
Base cost 20,730
Spare parts and contingencies 6,960
Total 27,690 - 6 Annex 3 Table 2 APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA
Agricultural Equipment
No of Estimated Cost Units Per Unit Total …Din '000 - - - -
Tractors (120 hp) 10 1,685 16,850
Tractors (70 hp) 10 800 8,000
Cereal combines (small grains and maize) 8 2,000 16,000
Small grain combines 10 700 7,000
Combine for beans 1 2,000 2,000
Combine for peas 1 2,000 2,000
Maize pickers 75 325 24,350
Sugarbeet harvesters 63 500 31,500
Forage harvesters 30 1,000 30,000
Base cost 137,700
Spare parts and contingencies 46,130
Total 183,830 57 Annex 3 Table 3
Appraisal of Semberija Drainage Project
Yugoslavia - SR Bosnia Herzegovina
Agricultural Research and Extension Equipment
Estimated Cost No. of Per Unit Total Units - - - Din. '000 - - - Scientific equipment for laboratories of soils, crop production and improvement, crop protection and seeds L.S. 10,700
Equipment for field experimentation and demonstration L.S. 7,000
Audio-visual aid equipment L.S. 3,000
Office equipment L.S. 1,000
Field vehicles 10 800 8,000
Motorcycles 10 40 400
Trucks 2 1,500 3,000
Base cost 33,100
Spare parts and contingencies 16,270
Total 49,370 -58 - Annex 4 Table 1
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGEPROJECT
YUGO,SLAVIA- SR BOSNIA--ERZEGOVINA
Project Cost Summary
(Dinars Million) (US5 Million) x of Foreign Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange
A. Civil works 1. Seliste intercepter Earthwork 8.0 10.3 18.3 0,2 0.2 0.4 56.1 Structures 3.0 3.7 6.7 0.1 0.1 0,2 56.1 Sub-total leliste interceoter 11.0 14.0 25.0 0.3 0,3 0,6 56.1
2. Main surface drains Earthwork 49.4 63.3 112.8 1.1 1.4 2.5 56.1 Structures 24.7 31.7 56.4 0.6 0,7 1.3 56.1 Sub-total main surface drains 74.2 95,0 169.2 1.7 2.1 3.8 56.1
3. Secondary & tertiary surface drains Earthwork 139.9 146.7 286.6 3.2 3.4 6.6 51.2 Structures 15.4 16.1 31.5 0.3 0.t 0.7 51.2 Sub-total secondary & tertiary surface drains 155.3 162,8 318.1 3.5 3.8 7.3 51.2
4. Sub-surface drains Tile drainage 30.1 47.3 77.4 0.7 1,1 1.8 61.1 Mole drainage 2.7 3.6 6,3 0.0 0.1 0.1 56.1 Sub-total sub-surface drains 32,8 50.9 83.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 60.7
5. Pumping stations Earthwork 2.3 3.7 60.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 61.1 Structures 21.1 33.2 54.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 61.1 Electro-hydromechequipment 39.2 61.7 100.9 0.9 1.4 2.3 61.1 Sub-total pumping stations 62.6 98.6 161.2 1.5 2.3 3.8 61.1
6. Flood control works Earthwork (Sava Dike) 99.3 127.0 226.3 2.3 2.9 5.2 56.1 Structures 2.0 2.6 4.6 0.0 0.1 0,1 56,1 Sub-total flood control works 101.3 129.6 230.9 2.3 3.3 5.3 56.1
7. Roads Earthwork 86.8 90.8 177.6 2.0 2.1 4.1 51.1 Structures 22.7 23.9 46.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 51.3 Sub-total roads I0q9.5 1147 224.2 2.5 A± 51 Sub-total civil works 546.7 665.6 1,212.3 12.5 15.3 27.8 54.9
B. On-farm development & miscellaneous works Removal of brushwood & tree stump 82.5 105.6 188.1 1.9 2.4 4.3 56,1 Land levelling 12.6 13.5 26,1 0.3 0.3 0.6 51.9 Wide bedding 5,1 8.0 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 61.1 Deep plowing 16.0 25.2 41.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 61.1 Facilities for O&M 35.2 25.0 60.1 0.8 0.6 1.4 41.5 Sub-total on-farm development & miscellaneousworks 151.4 177.3 328.7 3.4 4.1 7.5 53.9
C. Equipment & machinery 1. Equipment for O&M 3.9 8.2 12.1 0.1 0,2 0.3 68.0 2. Farm equipment 42.8 90.9 133.7 1.0 2.1 3.1 68.0 Sub-total equipment & machinery 46.7 99.2 145.9 1.1 2.3 3.4 68.0
D. Land consolidation 100.7 - 100.7 2,3 - 2.3 - - E. Equipment for extension services 10.6 22.5 33.1 0,2 4.5 0.7 68.0 F. Engineering 22.5 70.7 93.2 0.5 1.6 2.1 75.9 G. Organization & management 15.9 _ 15.9 0.4 - 0.4 - H. Training of personnel - 6.9 6.9 - 0,2 0.2 100.0 I. Miscellaneous feasibility studies 12.4 73.5 85.9 0.3 1.7 2.0 85.6 Total baseline costs 906.9 1,115.7 2,022.6 20.7 25.7 46.4 55.2
Physical contingencies 139.4 172.4 311.8 3.2 3.9 7.1 55.3 Price contingencies 654.5 198.4 852.9 15.0 4,5 19.5 23.3 Total contingencies 7° . 370.8 1,164.7 18.2 8.4 26.6 31.6
Total project costs 1,700.8 1,486.5 3,187.3 38.9 34.1 73.0 46.6 Front end fee - 22.3 22.3 - 0.5 0.5 100.0
Total 1,700.8 1,508.0 3,209.6 38.9 34.6 73.5 47,0 APPRAISAL IF
SFMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJTECT
YUGOAVIAA - SF BOSNTA-fERSFOCVFIRA
Esti-ated Schedule of toe-dit-r
Toa~l 1')o 12 146'4 l3- 19 Forign Item Loca Fore.ign Total Locl Foreign Total Local Forign Total local Foreign Total Lcl Foreign Total tl P-crege Total E. ha
Civil worka
- athwork 3.o1 1 0 7 10 c0s..8 - oa....~~~~a,,..... 3.0 ~~~~7 67 - - - 2.1 2.9 5 < 58 14 - --- 0 sub-total IT 11. 'c. - E 11.2 . . 2.0 .06 - - -
Main ewarfac drain EErthwork 49.5 69.93 112.8 - - 19.8 25.3 15.1 19.3 25.0 45.1 1.2o.6 22.5 -- - 5 - tZturea 24.7 31- 36.4 10.0 2.8331 10.0 3,2. 22.7 4±7 6.4. - 6 30k-total71.2 90.0 I8~~~~2 - - - 29.11 38.0 60.0 29.8 1.~~~~.0 771 14.6 19.0 3. -- -
See . & tar..arfate drai.a -Earthwo.rk 119q.9 116.7 599¾" - - 3.0 1.7 71.7 42.0 11,0 9650 12.0 U.. 9(.Cl 00.9 22.0 12.9 51 - itruotrno 15. 16. '10 - -9 - 7 10: 75.I , 1I2 9.0 1~7 1-- 3. .c p1 7 0 sal-total 19~~~755.3 12.0 318.1 - 53 1.7 70 37 113 57 77 171 00 2. 777 r7.7
- Tile drelnaga 3~~~~~~0.147.9 77.4 ------12.5 11.9 30.9 12.0 19.9 90.3 61 9.5 15.6 6i -Mole drainage 2.7 3.6 6.3 ------1.1 1.4 2.5 1.1 i.L 2.05Q .. 56 Sal-total 32 55o3 91.7 - Y3.1 7oo 33 1131 757 73 6. I7J I
-ntkwaRt 2.3 .7 60 16 .C .7 .7 .1 1.9 ------6 -Striuctorc 2i.1 33.2 0413 8.9 13.3 21.9 10.0 16.6 27.1 2.1 3.3 .4 -- - 6 El-etr-Iydro-neoh.equin. 4. .b %00. 11.5 18.5 30. 1215 . 50:4 7.9 12.3 20.2 - - - 6i- .b r 777 ~ ~ 0.0 15.6 250 - - -
Flood eontral worka FErthwark (SavnDike) 99.3 127.0 126.3 - - - 49.7 63.5 113.2 19.6, 63.5 113.1 ------56 -Streeturno 3.0 D.' 1. - - - 1.0 1.3 2.3 1.0 1.3 2.3 ------56 Sal-total 101.3 129.)- - 357 6872 1737 soP 07 10. ------
-Earthwork 86.9 90.4F 177.6 - - - 57 2"7 07: 26.0 27.9 53.3 26.0 27.3 93.9 13.1 -siraotarea 20.7 23.9 46.6 - - - 5.7 6.0 11.7 6.9 7.2 11.0 6.9 7.2 11.0 30k-total 109.5 111.7 212 - - - 27. 29.7 96.1 92. 31.0 7.3 12.1 15 177 11 W2 'f
30k-local at... S&zeolyll worka.ra.s s.aa.j.... 21.9 94.1 3~,7 186.2 232232.0 488.2 ,]41224.94 9.10=-.1.0.0 M 6- .u. so4 AO
Rema of braahwood and tree ata 82.5 105.6 188.1 21.8 51.6 96.1 32.9 42.4 75.9 24.ft 31.6 s6.1 -5 6 land levelling 12.6 1 3.5 26'.1 - .9 1'.0 7.8 9.0 5.5 10. 3.8 4.0 7.8 -- - 52 Wide kedding 5.1 91.' 13.1 ------1.9 2.1 hs o.6 4.0o 6.6r 1.2 1.9 3.1 61 Deep) plowitg 16.o 20.2 1yhl. - - - - - 5l1 17.7 29.9 l1 .0 12. 3 61 P0116cfor 8AM 35.2 JOe 60.2 ------21.3 15.1 16j.4 Is 223c 42 30k-total 19.4 157 297721 35. 075 51 T 2.6 % 6:- 3T3 7 s 91q,1499tp343-ch419n tqui;ae tRAFow 3.9 8.1 12.2P - - 2.0 4.i 6.1 1.1 L.2 6 1 -- - 68 Farm equipment 42.8 ±22. 15397 - - - 21.4 45.5 66.9 21.1, us.' 66.9 - - - . 68 Sub-total 46.7 99.2 iE2 - - 177 5 3' W T952. 1.9 13782 1771 -
L.ad IoCoiatn10.7 - 100.7 20.1 - 2 1 20.1 - 20.1 201.0 - 20.2 20.0 - 20.2 1001 - 2.1 -
Esteasian and -earh-eric-o 10.6 22.5 93.1 - - .2 6.7 9.9 3.2 6.7 9.9C 2.1 4.6 6.7 2.1 4.5 6.6 68
Engineering 22.9 70.7 93.2 15.7 49.5 60.2 1.8 0.6 7.1 1.9 s.6 7.1 1.6 00 (6 16 00 .6 76
Org.nnlztiaa & management 15.9 - 19.9 1.6 - 1.6 . I.e I.e, - 1I.e) I..-,. 23 2.5 -
Traiinag of ersomnel - 6. (.9 - 2.7 2.7 - 2.1 2.1 - 2.1 2.1 ------150 ala. fe-atbllity atadies 12.1 73.5 80.9 - - - 4.9 29.4 34.3 1.9 29.4 31.0 2.6 11-.7 17.3 -- -86
Total lace coot 906.9 1,110.7 2.0Ž2.6, 59.3 86.6 145.9 270.2 336.9 627.1 303.1 383.3 Omn.4 190.9 2110.1 010.2 711.0 70.n IL no
Ceniingenelo 5. Phyatee oaigece 139.4 172.L7 311.8 1.9 13.0 21.9 40.6 53.5 91.1 4t.0 59.5 106.3 30.7 94.0 6o.5 96.1. I1., 24.0 5 Price eoatlngeeoiea651.5 335,31, ~~~~~85,2.96.o 2. .1 100.0 3337 AUS 215.4 720 8.121. 63.5 276.1 105 .73 147.8 2
110.8 44o.q 851.7 o65.' t'1,090.1 1 96.2 s16. 755.' 211.' 103.7 320.9 17 Total project coet 1,700.8 i,486.5 3,197.3 74.2 101.7 175.9 1
Front-md f.m-. 15 11 . 22. 3 22. ------Tmin1 1,700.R 1,ta. ,209.6 74.2 124.0 19§.2 410.8 413.9 851.7 565.3 511.8 1,o80.1 439.2 316.6 755.8 211.! 109.0 j21.S 47 APPRATSAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRATNAGE PROJFCT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNTA-14ERZEGOVTNA
Procurement Package for Construction & Procurement of Fquipment
No. of Seliste Surface Tile Pumping Sava Roads On-farm Development Fouipment Farm Packages Inter- Drainage Drainage Stations Dike Removal Land Wide Deep Facilities for O&M Eauipmexnt and Mole of Brush- Levelling Bedding Plowing for O&M Drains wood & Tree Stumps S. Procurement Pkge. No. of (km) (ha) (ha) (m3/sec) (km) (ha) (ha) (ha) (ha) % No. Description Pkge. (appr.) (appr.) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ll 12 13 14 15 16
1 Western sub-area I - 5,770 l,o00o 29 9,200/1 9,200/1 3,000 800 37 - - (paved) 49 (unpaved) 2 Eastern sub-area I - 9,800 500 - - 33 9,800 9,800 500 700 73 (paved)9,800 9,800 500 700 63 56 (unpaved) 3 Pumping stations - Begovpiut (Ext.) I - - - 15.3 ------
- Topolovac (New) I - - - 5 .7 - - - _ _ _ _ 4/ E Puipmentfor O&M I ------_ 100 5 Farm equipment ------100 8) Flood Protection /2 and Main Drains 1 - Sava bike - - - 14. 5 Seliste Intercepter 7.96 - Main Drains c9 0
Total p6.986 15,570 1,500 21.1 14.5 78 19,000 19,000 3,500 1,500 100 100 100 (paved) 89 (unpaved) 3 > /1 Including 3,430 ha urider land improvement without drainage. 1-x /2 Flood Protection and Main Drains have been placed in one pracurement package as excavation from main drains would be used for strengthening of Sava Dike.
Note: (a) All procurement would be under ICB with the exception of Item 3 (b) In addition, contracts for mole drainage, wide bedding and deep plowing would also be procured under LCB. APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Financial Plan /1
SIZ Vodoprivreda UPI Semberija Total Interest Interest PBS Interest Invest- During Invest- During (FOR Invest- During ment Const. Total ment Construction Total Studies) ment Construction Total ------… ------Dinars Million ------…-…------
1. World Bank 269.6 - 269.6 1,122.4 - 1,122.4 119.3 1,511.3 - 1,511.3 43.4
2. Federal Fund 249.2 73.0 322.2 204.0 83.5 287.5 - 453.2 156.5 609.7 17.5
3. Republic Fund - - - 120.0 10.0 130.0 - 120.0 10.0 130.0 3.7
4. PBS Udruzena Bank - - - 416.0 74.0 490.0 - 416.0 74.0 490.0 14.1
5. PBS - Basic Bank Bijeljina - - - 126.3 8.7 135.0 - 126.3 8.7 130.6 3.8
6. Equity Contribu- tion 327.0 - 327.0 260.2 23.Y 2"24.0 - 587.2 23.8 611.0 17.5
Total 845.8 73.0 918.8 2,244.5 200.0 2,444.5 119.3 3,209.6 273.0 3,482.6 100
Details of Equity Contributions:
SIZ Vodoprivreda Din. 327.0 mil,
UPI Semberija Din. 184.0 mil.
Commune of Brijeljina Din. AO0.0 mil. x|
Total Din. 611.0 mil. X.-
/1 Received on March 2, 1982 during negotiations. - 62 - Annex 5
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNTA-HERZEGOVINA
Program of Drainage and Reclamation /1
Item - - Years ------Type of Drainage (Total Area) 1983 1984 1985 1986
Drainage & Land Improvement ------ha ------
Surface drainage (10,570) 2,640 3,170 3,170 1,590
Tile drainage (1,500) - 600 600 300
Wide bedding (3,500) - 850 1,800 850
Total (15,570) 2,640 4,620 5,570 2,740
Accumulative program (gross) 2,640 7±2 12,830 15, 570
(net) (2,070) (5,700) (10,050) (12,200)
Land Improvement Without Drainage Land clearance & levelling 1,140 1,140 1,150 -
Accumulative program (gross) 1,140 2,280 3,430 3,430
(net) (980) (1,960) (2,950) (2,950)
Total Project (Accumulative)
(gross) 3,780 9,540 16,260 19,000
(net) (3,050) (7,660) (13,000) (15,150)
/1 Above program indicates status of construction and land improvement up to December 31 of each target year. Development of agriculture and resulting benefits are anticipated in the following year. -63- Annex 6
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA
Schedule of Disbursements
Cumulative Comparison IBRD Fiscal Disbursement Cumulative Bank Agri. Yugoslavia Agri. Year & Qtr. US Million % Projects Projects
1982/83 Sept. 30, 1982 0.5 1.4, Dec. 31, 1982 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 Mar. 31, 1983 1.0 2.9 June 30, 1983 2.4 7.0 3.6 2.5
1983/84 Sept. 30, 1983 4.1 11.9 Dec. 31, 1983 5.0 14.5 7.2 8.6 Mar. 31, 1984 5.8 16.8 June 30, 1984 6.8 19.7 13.4 19.1
1984/85 Sept. 30, 1984 9.0 26.1 Dec. 31, 1984 11.0 31.9 19.5 32.2 Mar. 31, 1985 13.2 38.3 June 30, 1985 15.7 45.5 29.0 46.3
1985/86 Sept. 30, 1985 18.0 52.2 Dec. 31, 1985 20.4 59.1 36.0 60.0 Mar. 31, 1986 22.3 64.6 June 30, 1986 24.3 70.4 46.7 72.250 1986/87 Sept. 30, 1986 26.0 75.4 Dec. 31, 1986 27.6 80.0 54.2 82.2 Mar. 31, 1987 29.0 84.1 June 30, 1987 30.3 87.8 64.7 90.0
1987/88
Sept. 30, 1987 31.0 89.9 Dec. 31, 1986 32.3 93.6 71.2 95.9 Mar. 31, 1987 32.4 93.9 June 30, 1987 34.5 100.0 80.3 100.0 APPRATSAT OF
SFMBFRT.TA lRATNACF PRO.TFCT
YPCOSITAVTA - SR _OSNTA-_41R7GC0VTNA
Cropping Pattern on Arable land
Precent Situation__ _ uture Situation With Project Jndividual Sector Social Sector Tota] Tndividual Sector Social Sector Total ha z ha ' ha P ha ha S ha S Annual Crops Cereals Wheat ?,40 2q.0 300 41.1 3,2?40 ?9.8 4,170 31.9 69n 33.? 4,860 32.1 Maize 5,150 50.8 200 27.4 5,350 49.3 2,910 2?.3 690 33.? 3,600 ?3.7 Total (Cereals 8,090 79.8 500 6R.5 8,590 79.1 7,080 54.7 1,380 66.4 8,460 55.8
Industriai Crops Sugarbeet 310 1160 1.9 470 4.3 2,2O0 ?2.3 700 13.6 3,620 23.9 TotaL Tndustrial Crops 310 3.t 160 21.9 470 4.3 2,920 ?2.3 7n0 33.6 3,620 23.9
Vegetableb Potatoes 210 2.1 210 1.9 250 1.9 250 1.7 Green Pepper 200 2.0 200 1.8 350 2.7 350 2.3 Tomatoes 100o.0 100 0.9 ?n2 1.5 200 1.3 Peas, string beans 70 0.7 70 9.6 140 I.3 Cabhage 170 1.6 570 1.6 ?00 1.5 ?00 1.3 Cabbage (Sc) /J . (950) (4.2) (550) (3.6) l'Total Vegetables 750 7.4 70 9.6 820 7.6 1,000 7.7 1,000 6.6
Fodder 180 1.8 180 1.6 410 3.1 410 2.7
Perennial Crops Forage Alfalfa, clover-grass 800 7.9 800 7.4 Alfalfa . 1,660 17.7 1,660 11.0 Total Forage 80o 7.9 8O0 7.4 1,860 12.7 ],6 11.0
Total Arable l.and 10,130 100.0 730 100.0 10,860 100.0 1t3,070 100.0 2,080 111O.0 15,150 100.0
71 .Secod Crop late cabbage mostly following wheat
Is APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Crop Production, Gross Value, and Incremental
Individual Sector
Present Situation Future Situation with Project Gross Value Gross Value Incremental Area Yield Production Value Production Area Yield Production Value Production Production Gross Value Crop ha t/ha t din/t din ha T/ha t din/t din t '000 din
FOOD CROPS
Cereals Wneat 2,940 2.7 7,938 11,500 91,287,000 4,170 4.8 20,016 11,500 230,184,000 12,078 138,897.0 Maize 5,150 3.3 16,995 8,500 144,457,500 2,910 6.5 18,915 8,500 160,777,500 1,920 16,320.0 Total Cereals 8,090 24,933 235,744,500 7,080 38,931 390,961,500 13,998 155,217.0
Industrial Crops Sugarbeet 310 24.7 7,657 2,000 15,314,000 2,920 50.0 146,000 2,000 292,000,000 138,343 276,686.0 Total Industrial Crops 310 7,657 15,314,000 2,920 146,000 292,000,000 138,343 276,686.0
Vegetables Potatoes 210 5.3 1,113 9,000 10,017,000 250 15.0 3,750 9,000 33,750,000 2,637 23,733.0 Green pepper 200 12.5 2,500 10,000 25,000,000 350 25.0 8,750 10,000 87,500,000 6,250 62,500.0 Tomato 100 15.2 1,520 7,000 10,640,000 200 40.0 8,000 7,000 56,000,000 6,480 45,360.0 Peas 70 2.7 189 10,000 1,890,000 (189) (1,890.0) Cabbage 170 30.0 5,100 4,000 20,400,000 200 40.0 8,000 4,000 32,000,000 2,900 11,600.0 Cabbage (sc) _ (550) 30.0 16,500 4,000 66,000,000 16,500 66,000.0 > Total Vegetables 750 10,422 67,947,000 1,000 45,000 275,250,000 34,578 207,303.0 u-
TOTAL FOOD CROPS 9,150 43,012 319,005,500 11,000 229,931 958,211,500 186,919 639,206.0
NON-FOOD CROPS
Forage and Grassland /1 Alfalfa, clover-grass 800 5.0 4,000 5,750 23,000,000 (4,000) (23,000.0) Alfalfa 1,660 10.0 16,600 6,500 107,900,000 16,600 107,900.0 Fodder 180 5.8 1,044 4,500 4,698,000 410 10.0 4,100 4,500 18,450,000 3,056 13,752.0 Natural meadow 440 1.4 616 3,000 1,848,000 (616) (1,848.0) Natural pasture 570 0.6 342 3,000 1,026,000 _ (342) (1,026.0) Total Forage and Grassland 1,990 6,002 30,572,000 2,070 20,700 126,350,000 14,698 95,778.0
TOTAL NON-FOOD 1,990 6,002 30,572,000 2,070 20,700 126,350,000 14,698 95,_778.0
GRAND TOTAL 11,140 49,014 349,577,500 13,070 250,631 1,084,561,500 201,617 734,984.0
/1 Forage and grassland yields expressed on dry weight basis
Pb 00 APPRAISAIL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUCOSILAVIA - SR BOSNTA-HERZEGOVTNA
Crop Production, Gross Value, and Incremental
Social Sector
Present Situation Future Situation with Project Gross Value Gross Value _ ncremental Area Yield Production Value Production Area Yield Production Value Prodtiction Production Gross Value Crop) ha t/ha t din/t din ha t/ha t din/t din t '000 din
FOOD CROPS
Cereals Wheat 300 3.0 900 11,500 10,350,000 690 5.5 3,795 11,500 43,642,500 2,895 33,292.5 Maize 200 3.4 680 8,500 5,780,000 690 7.5 5,175 8,500 43,987,500 4,495 38,207.5 Total Cereals 500 1,580 16,130,000 1,380 8,970 87,630,000 7,390 71,500.0
Industrial Crops Sugarbeet 160 37.5 6,000 2,000 12,000,000 700 B5.0 38,500 2,()00 77,000,000 32,500 65,000.0 Total Industrial Crops 160 6,000 12,000,000 700 38,500 77,000,0()0 32,500 65,000.00
Vegetables Peas, string beans 70 4.9 343 10,000 3,430,000 (343) (3,430.0) Total Vegetables 70 343 3,430,000 (343) (3,430.0)
TOTAL FOOD CROIPS 730 7,.923 31,560,000 2,080 47,470 164,630,000 39,547 133,070.0
NO)N-FOODCROPS
Natural pasture 6h10 0.6 366 3,0(0 1,098,000 (366) (1,098.0)
I(OTALNON-FOOD 6lU 366 1,098,000 (366) (1,098.0)
GRAND IOIAL 1,340 8,289 32,658,000 2,()8() 47,470 164,640,000 39,181 131,972.0 < >
____r (D X APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Crop Production, Gross Value, and Incremental
Both Sectors Combined
Present Situation Future Situation with Project Gross Value Gross Value Incremental Area Yield Production Value Production Area Yield Production Value Production Production Gross Value Crop ha t/ha t din/t din ha t/ha t din/t din t '000 din
FOOD CROPS
Cereals Wheat 3,240 2.73 8,838 11,500 101,637,000 4,860 4.90 23,811 11,500 273,826,500 14,973 172,189.5 Maize 5,350 3.30 17,675 8,500 150,237,500 3,600 6.69 24,090 8,500 204,765,000 6,415 54,527.5 Total Cereals 8,590 26,513 251,874,500 8,460 47,901 478,591,500 21,388 226,717.0
Industrial Crops Sugarbeet 470 29.06 13,657 2,000 27,314,000 3,620 50.97 184,500 2,000 369,000,000 170,843 341,686.0 Total Industrial Crops 470 13,657 27,314,000 3,620 184,500 369,000,000 170,843 341,686.0
Vegetables Potatoes 210 5.30 1,113 9,000 10,017,000 250 15.00 3,750 9,000 33,750,000 2,637 23,733.0 Green pepper 200 12.50 2,500 10,000 25,000,000 350 25.00 8,750 10,000 87,500,000 6,250 62,500.0 Tomato 100 15.20 1,520 7,000 10,640,000 200 40.00 8,000 7,000 56,000,000 6,480 45,360.0 Peas, string beans 140 3.80 532 10,000 5,320,000 (532) (5,320.0) Cabbage 170 30.00 5,100 4,000 20,400,000 200 40.00 8,000 4,000 32,000,000 2,900 11,600.0 Cabbage (sc) _ (550) 30.00 16,500 4,000 66,000,000 16,500 66,000.0 Total Vegetables 820 10,765 71,377,000 1,000 45,000 275,250,000 34,235 203,873.0
TOTAL FOOD CROPS 9,880 50,935 350,565,500 13,080 277,401 1,122,841,500 226,466 772,276.0
NON-FOOD CROPS
Forage and Grassland Alfalfa, clover-grass 800 5.00 4,000 5,750 23,000,000 (4,000) (23,000.0) Alfalfa 1,660 10.00 16,600 6,500 107,900,000 16,600 107,900.0 Fodder 180 5.80 1,044 4,500 4,698,000 410 10.00 4,100 4,500 18,450,000 3,056 13,752.0 5'D Natural meadow 440 1.40 616 3,000 1,848,000 (616) (1,848.0) x Natural pasture 1,180 0.60 708 3,000 2,124,000 (708) (2,124.0) X Total Forage and Grassland 2,600 6,368 31,670,000 2,070 20,700 126,350,000 14,332 94,680.0
TOTAL NON-FOOD 2,600 6,368 31,670,000 2,070 20,700 126,350,000 14,332 94,680.0
GRAND TOTAL 12,480 57,303 382,235,500 15,150 298,101 1,249,191,500 240,798 866,956.0 APPRAISAL OF
SEMBFRTJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YGOST.AVTA - SR BOSNTA-NFRZFCOVTNA
Fertilizer Application Rates and Total Reouirement (Expressed as active substance)
Present Situation Future Situation With Project Area Rate - kg/ha Reauirement - tons Area Rate - kg/ha Pequirement - tons Crop ha N P205 K20 N P205 K20 ha N P205 K20 P P205 K20
Tndividual Sector
Wheat 2,940 4n 35 30 118 103 88 4,170 13n 120 l?0 542 500 500 M aIze 5,154 50 40 35 258 206 180 2,910 140 130 Ino 407 378 291 Sugarbeet 310 55 50 60 17 1lf 19 2,920 170 150 240 496 438 701 Vegetables 750 70 55 55 53 41 41 1,550 /1 160 18n 185 248 279 287 Fodder 180 30 30 3n 5 5 5 440 90 125 125 37 51 51 Altalfa, clover-grass 800 25 25 25 20 20 20 Alfalfa _ 1,660 25 70 72 42 116 120 Subtotat 1 6,--36 W471 391 R53 13,620 1,772 1,762 1,950
Social Sector
0' Wheat 300 60 fO 55 18 18 17 690 1 " 140 17n 104 97 8) I Maize 200 60 80 65 12 16 13 690 170 150 120 117 104 83 Sugarteet 160 70 75 60 11 12 In 700 200 170 290 140 119 203 Vegetables 70 45 80 60 3 6 4 Subtotal 730 44 52 44 ,o80n 361 320 369
Total 10,860 515 443 397 15,700 ?,133 2,082 2,319
i Inocludes 550 ha of second crop late cabbage
71.- -inc cf-es~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - 69 - Annex 10
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
Annual Operation and Maintenance Costs
Item Estimated Annual Cost
Operating Personnel
Pumping stations 1,188 Drainage network and dikes 861 Sub-total 2,049 55.0
Equipment
Transport for supervision and routine repairs 2,145 58.0
Power Supply Pumping stations 1,775 48.0
Maintenance of Works Dikes 1,375 Surface drainage network 9,969 Sub-surface drainage system 3,488 Interceptor canals 1,514 Roads 1,287 Pump houses and watchmen houses 106 Telephone system 40 Sub-total 17,779 481.0
Miscellaneous Lubricants and materials 73 Tools and office equipment 24 Sub-total 97 2.6
Total 23,845 644.6
O&M cost per hectare- = Din. 1,574 (US$42.5)
/1 Total arable area = 15,150 ha APPRAISALOF SEMBERIJADRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA-SRBOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
INDIVIDUALSECTOR CASH FLOW
FARMMODEL - 3,5HA
(DIINARS000)
PROJECTLEVY-GRANT NOT RECOVERED
WO/PROJ 1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-15 16 17 18 19 20-40
CASHINFLOW
REVENUES 84.66 84,66 102.32133.59 176,47 209.50 234.58 255.48 269,38 273.62 273.62 273.62 273.62273.62 273.62
CASHOUTFLOW
AGR PRODCOSTS 44.37 44,37 51.74 63.99 79.89 90,29 95.27 98.51 99.69 99,82 99.82 99,82 99.82 99.82 99.82 PROJECTLEVY ------55.21 55.21 55,21 51,22 35.08 16.90 4.13 - LANDTAX 3.65 3.65 3.81 4.05 4,33 4,46 4.79 5.29 5,87 6.11 6l11 6.11 6.11 6.11 6.11 50%- LANDCONSOLIDATION - 11,76 ------
SUBTOTAL 36.64 24.88 46.77 65.55 92,25 114.75134,52 96,47 108.61112,48 116.47 132.61 150,79163.56 167.69 HOMECONSUMFTION 21.17 21.17 22.23 23,29 24,35 25.40 25,40 25.40 25,40 25,40 25.40 25,40 25.40 25.40 25.40
CASHFLOW W FROJ 3.71 24,54 42,26 67,90 89,35109.12 71.07 83,21 87.08 91.07 107.21 125.39138.16 142.29 CASHFLOW WO FPROJ 15.47 15.47 15.47 15.47 15,47 15.47 15,47 15.47 15.47 15.47 15.47 15,47 15.47 15.47 15,47 tJ (D INCREMENTALCASH FLOW - -11,76 9,07 26.79 52.43 73.88 93.65 55,60 67,74 71.61 75.60 91.74 109.92122.69 126.82 x 50% - -5.88 4.54 13.39 26.22 36.94 46.83 27,80 33.87 35,80 37,80 45.87 54.96 61.35 63.41 H OPERATION9 MAINTENANCE - - 1,?2 3,32 4,17 4,46 4.46 4,46 4,46 4,46 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.46 SURPLUS./DEFICIT - -5.88 2.62 10.07 22,05 32.48 42,37 23,34 29,41 31,34 33.34 41.41 50.50 56.89 58.95 -71 - Annex 12 Page 1
APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA
Financial and Economic Prices
October, 1981 1981 Farm or Factory Economic Farm Item Unit Gate Price Prices (Dinars) (Dinars) Outputs
Main Crops kg
Wheat kg 11.50 8.92 Maize kg 8.50 4.32 Sugarbeet kg 2.00 1.20
Vegetables kg
Potato kg 9.00 6.30 Peas kg 10.00 7.00 String beans kg 10.00 7.00 Cabbage kg 4.00 2.80 Tomatoes kg 7.00 4.90 Green pepper kg 10.00 7.00
Fodder and Dry Weight kg
Alfalfa, clover-grass kg 5.75 4.00 Alfalfa kg 6.50 4.60 Fodder kg 4.50 3.20 Natural meadow kg 3.00 2.10 Natural pasture kg 3.00 2.10
By-Products kg
Maize stalks kg 0.70 /1 Maize cobs kg 0.35 Sugarbeet tops kg 0.40 Wheat straw kg 0.80
/1 These items are not included in the economic or financial analysis. _72 _ Annex 12 Page 2
October, 1981 1981 Farm or Factory Economic Farm Item Unit Gate Price Prices (Dinars)`rs
Inputs
Seeds
Wheat kg 17.35 12.10 Maize kg 70.65 49.50 Sugarbeet kg 1,500.00 1,050.00 Potato kg 18.00 12.60 Peas, string beans kg 70.00 49.00 Peas kg 50.00 35.00 Cabbage seedling 0.30 0.21 Tomatoes seedling 0.30 0.21 Green pepper seedling 0.30 0.21
Forage and Fodder kg
Alfalfa, clover-grass kg 215.00 15.05 Alfalfa kg 250.00 175.00 Fodder kg 60.00 42.00
Fertilizers kg (100% active ingredient)
Nitrogen kg 18.52 17.5 Phosphate kg 30.47 17.9 Potash kg 15.95 8.4 _ 73 - Annex 12 Page 3
October, 1981 1981 Farm or Factory Economic Farm Item Unit Gate Price Prices (Dinars) (Dinars)
Plant Protection Materials /1
Deherban kg 100.00 Lindane kg 21.05 Atrazine kg 115.00 Penolesalin L 230.00 Pirazinon kg 446.00 Cikloat kg 300.00 Sevin P-5 kg 26.00 Karbavil kg 110.00 Fosfamid L 130.00 Trifluralin L 302.00 Metonyl kg 710.00 Cinel kg 81.00 Foksin kg 35.00 Bakreni Oksihlorid kg 75.00 Prometryn kg 140.00 Propinebe kg 105.00 Propinel & bakar kg 93.00 Napropamide kg 340.00 2, 4-D+MCPA kg 70.00 Atrazine & prometryn kg 150.00 Metolachlor kg 270.00 Forat kg 40.00
Supplementary Plant Protection Materials
Geolin kg 18.00 Stomp kg 230.00 Pyromin kg 440.00 Ro-Neet kg 300.00 Metasystox kg 130.00 Timet kg 40.00 Enovit kg 500.00 Monoson kg 70.00 Apropin kg 150.00 Volaton kg 35.00 Dual kg 270.00 Treflan kg 302.00
/1 Weighted averages per crop by area were calculated and a conversion factor of 0.7 was applied to derive economic value. 74- - Annex 12 Page 4
October, 1981 1981 Farm or Factory Economic Farm Item Unit Gate Price Prices (Dinars) (Dinars)
Fuel
Gasoline L 26.50 26.50 Diesel L 24.00 24.00 Motor oil L 60.00 60.00
Labor
Skilled day Semi-skilled day Unskilled day 300.00 (gross) 120.00
Machine Operation
Heavy tractor day 6,200 3,720.00 Medium tractor day 2,426 1,455.60 Light tractor day 1,704. 1,022.40 Cereal combine day 6,990 4,194.00 Maize harvester day 6,990 4,194.00 Sugarbeet harvester day 7,350 4,410.00 Pea harvester day 8,176 4,905.60 Irrigation pump day 1,617 970.20 Mower day 1,050 630.00 Animal traction day 500 300.00 APPRAISALOUF SEMBERIJA DRtINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLVAIA- S"R BOSNIA HERZECOVINA
FINANCIALANALYSIS
INtDIVIDUALSECTOR
(DINARS000!
YEAR ' ?2^ 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990991-2021
CASHiNFLOW
F"Et.'NUES - - :237021 163S50 651769 829729 9290771011D66 1066915 108370'
CASHOUTFLOW
2 AGRPROD COSTS - - 64375 166881 291698 3!!7609 3j73 7 390162 394835 395362
INV;STMENTCOSTS 124820 5033B0 523000 375530 112110 - - - - - REPLACEMENTCOST ------OPERATIONi MAINTENANCE - 1802 .'662 13153 16502 1/648 17648 17648 1?648 1?648 LANDTAX - 15/ 8928 15139 17645 18958 20?91 23252 24180 LAHiUCONSOLI9ATION 19950 1950 20040 20040 19950 - - - - INCOMETAX ------
SUBTOTAL 144?70 525132 b8623"I 5441532*'155398 392?02 2.l3933 4 87618 6 14257 437191 CASHFLOW WITH F'FROJECT -144770 -525132 -8 81602 -180582 1963714s6B26 5151 o 583102z6A1120 646514 CHSHFLOW WO PFOJECT - - 30386 76493129706 131Ii2 1'r11!2 151172 151172 15117'2 INCREMENTHLCASH FLOW -144?70 -525132 -511988-257075 66665 2856543 '31930!3968 480008 495342 NEi PRESPHijlVALUE Al 12.0%= 1063228, INTERFNALFATE 0, RETU,RkN- 19S9. APPRAISALOF SEMPERIJADRAN.A'GE PROJECT
YUGOSLAYIA- SR BOSWI(lHER7EGOYINA
FINANlCIALANALYSIS
SOCIALSEClORF
TOINARSOoo.:
eE -1?32 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990991-209 20060?7-Q,l
CASH INFLIOW4
FE.NUES -E- 2197 56615 101007 127858 142221 54191 162150 16458 164578 16457v8
CASHOUTFI.OW
AGSPROD COSTS - - i0585 2/732 49010 60814 h4771 6/0'55 67793 6./8.°2e/872 678b: 1NIJESTMENTCOSTS 19860 78300 123170 93920 37770 - REPLCACEMENTCOST ------i46300- PFERATIONI MAINTENANCE - 287 1219 3448 5337 6197 6197 6197 6197 619? 6197 6197 LAN TAX v.NOCO)El^QNHOC!!L:L:LATI[! N 7:37/7... 170.....31703- 31i903 31.2 , - l/0 - - INCOINEAX - -2 91P- 5Y4 4759 6206 7268 8256 S 9' Y932 1 9232
SUBfTOTAL 23030 81728 139143 130805 100046 73217 78236 81508 )2982 83301 83301 83301 CASHFLOW WITH FFROJECT -23030 -81728 -117746 -74270 961 t74641 63985 72683 7168 81277 -23353 81277 CASHFLOW WO PROJECT - - 297? 7495 12709 14813 14813 14813 14813 14813 14813 14813 INCREMENTALCASH FLOW -23030 -81728 -120723 -81765 11748 39828 49172 57820 64356 66464 -38166 66464 NE!FRESFttT YAIIE Al 12,0%. 46352. INTFRNALRAIE OF RETURN 13,9% H')a APPSM.I'SLOF SEMPERIJA liRAINAGtP F$OJME
YUGOSLVAIA- SR BOSNIAHFRZEGOVI)NA
FINAtrICALANALfSi8
rOTALPF'OJELI
iMSNAS000Q
YEtFf 192 1983 1984 1985 1986 !?8.7 1988 1969 1990991-20K5 2006007-2021
CASHINFLOW
FC'NEDlES - - 8418 420)565J 752776 957586 107129'4 1166054 1229,0651248283 1248283 124828)3,
CASHOUTFLOW
Ii"'ESTMENTCOSTS 144680 581680 6V61/0 429450 149880 - REPLACEMENTCOST ------i04630 hGF FRODCOSTS - - 74960 194613 340708 4142'3 442098 457217 46262B 463236 At63236 l 63236 OFEFATION1 MAINTENANCE - 2089 8881 16601 21838 23845 23845 23845 23845 23845 23845 23845 LtNP TAX - - 3547 BS28 15139 17645 18958 20951 23252 24180 24180 24180 LhNT!CONSOLIDATION 23120 23120 23230 23230 23120 ------I.AC>{LETAX - -29 978 't94 4759 6206 7268 82r56 H992 92332 232 9232
SU8TCTAL 167800 606860 757766 675417 555444 466119 492169 510269 518717 520492 520492 5204924? CASHFLOW WITH FROJECT -167800 -606860 -599348 -254852 197332 491467 579125 655785 710349 727791 623161 727791
C^SH FLOWWO PROJECT - - 33363 83988 142415 165985 165985 165985 165985 165985 165985 165985 F L ICF'ENENT4LCASH FLOW -167800 -606860 -632711 -338840 5491! 323482 413140 489800 r44364 561806 457176 5l61806 EET YrESEHYLUEk OT 121.07- 1109579. INTERNALRATE OF RETURN- 18S APPRAISAL OF
SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA - SR BOSNTA-HERZEGOVINA
Economic Prices for Tradeable Inputs and Outputs 717301 Constant US$)
World International Yugoslav Source or Basis Internal Port Ex-factory Ex-farm Outputs Unit Price 1990 Transport Border Price for Price /A Transport liandling Price Price
Wheat Tons 263 30 293 Import parity 16.00 5.00 314 Maize Tons 217 20 197 Export parity , 16.00 5.00 176 Barley Tons 219 20 23'3 Import parity 16.0o 5.00 260 Sugar/P (beet) Tons )1i6 40 396 Export parity 16.oo 5.00 375 8.9
Inputs Fertilizers/3 Nitrogen (N) Tons 652 20 632 Export parity l6.00 5.00 611
Phosphate (P 2 05 ) Tons 533 20 553 Import parity 16.00 5.00 574
Potash (K20) Tons 203 12 215 Import parity 16.00 5.00 236
Conversion Factors Standard 0.7 Mechanization O.6 Transport 0. Construction o.6 Investment o.6 Consumption 0.7 Intermediaries 0.7 Unskilled labor 0.4
/1 Based on World Bank Price Projections, July 1981. Transport/handl.ing added for import parity items and deducted for export parity. /2 Conversion Rate from Sugar, ex-factory price to Sugarbeet ex-farm price of .13. /3 Based on 100( Active Ingredient. I-. APPRAISALOF SEMBERIJADRAINAGE PROJECT
YUGOSLAVIA- SR BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
TOTALECONOMIC RATE RETURN
TOTALPROJECT
(DINARS000)
YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990991-20052006007-2021
CASHINFLOW
10471001047100 1047100 REVENUES - - 121505350124 627104 799161 895842 976695 1030839
CASHOUTFLOW
357493357493 357493 AGRPRODUCTION COSTS - - 55448 146427257327 317883 338067 351420 356974 15953 15953 OPERATIONSI MAINTENANCE - 1288 5942 11107 14610 15953 15953 15953 15953 15953 INVESTMENTCOSTS 148500500200 560000 362200142800 ------REPLACEMENTSCOSTS ------58140 - 431586 373446 SUBTOTAL 148500501488 621389 519734414737 333836 354019 367373 372927 373446 673654 CASHFLOW WITH PROJECT -148500-501488 -499885 -169609 212367465325 541822609322 657912 673654 615514 155649 CASHFLOW WO PROJECT - - 26357 78093 132225154497 154878155285 155649155649 155649 459865518005 INCREMENTALCASH FLOW -148500-501488 -526242 -247702 80143 310829386944 454037 502263 518005 NET PRESENTVALUE AT 12.0Z= 1184962, INTERNALRATE OF RETURN= 20.8Z
U, - 80 - Annex 16
APPRAISAL OF SlMBERlJA DRAINAGE PROJECT
YUlJ)OSLAVIA- SR B0SNIA-11ERZECOVINA
Selected Documents and Data Available in the Project File
A. Selected Reports on SR Bosnia-Berzegovina and the Agricultural Sector
A-1 Social Plan of the Socialist Republic of Bosnia-llerzegovi.na for the Period from 1981 to 1985. A-2 Agricultural Sector Plan Review: 1981-1985, Ag. Division III, EMENA Projects (October 30, 1981). A-3 Draft Review of SFRY 1981-1985 Plan, by Programs Department (July 19 81) .
B. Selected Reports and Studies Relating to the Project "Yugoslavia - Socialist Republic of Bosnia-Ulerzegovina, semberija Land Reclamation Project, Preparation Report" :
B-1 Main Text B-2 Annex 1 - The Project Area B-3 Annex 2 - Soils & Field Drainage B-4 Annex 3 - Hydrology B-5 Annex 4 - Main organizations and Institutions Related to the Project B-6 Annex 5 - Engineering Work, Part one B-7 Annex 6 - Agricultural Development B-8 Annex 7 - Land Consolidation B-9 Annex 8 - Markets, Marketing & Prices B-10 Annex 9 - Economic Analysis B-li Additional Preparation Report dated October 5, 1981
C. Appraisal =orkingPapers
C-1 Engineering, Project Investment, and Operation and Maintenance Costs C-2 Economic Analysis - Prices, Background Data and Assumption C-3 Financial Analysis - Prices, Background Data, Assumptions, Individual Sector Farm Model, Cost Recovery C-4 Institutions - Financial and Managerial Data C-5 Incremental Agricultural Production C-6 Crop Production Inputs C-7 Seventeen (17) Project Implementation Files C-8 Disbursement Profiles - 81 -
APPRAISAL OF SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT YUGOSLAVIA - SR. BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA TIME SCHEDULEOF IMPLEMENTATION
IBAD FISCAL YEAR 1932 1983 1984 1985 l88 197
CALENDER YEAR 1982 1983 1984 1985 198 _. - ///~~~~7, // t/// // /77 // 7/7 // /77 7 777O, // //7 // /// // /7/ // 7/7 // C-IVIL WORKS 7,/ 7 7/// 7 ////
SELISTE INTERCEPTOR ,,, // / 80% j §720% // Z // ''o -EARTHWORK /7`// // 1/I,/,-" // 7/7 7/ /// /7, ~~~~~~~~~ 80% / //20% / 7 -STRUCTURES /7, 7/ 7 / / /// 7/ 77/ "/ /// MAIN SURFACE DRAINS /"Z // /// // / 40% / " 2' "' / S.NESRERN/7' /7 7' 2540% o 40%4 """ 20' 3% "" 1% -EARTHWORK ,"", KZ / /Z/ /// 3 / i P N T/7, //70% /7/ 40% ~~/X 40% , 7/720% /7 /7/ / -STRUCTURES /7Z, //// Z//_// 77 / i"' zz
SEC. AND TEA. SURFACEDRAINS / 7"' "' , 40 " .Q 7/ 0'/ / ." -TILE DRAINAGE zZ 6/25% 3 30% / 7/ 15% z -EARTHWORK ,I,, " G, ' / /i/ 15% /7 /7,o X Z// 25% / Z 30% /7 // 30% 15% -STRUCTURES , _//S' /7 / /, "/ /7/,// -ELECT-HYDROMECH.,EQIMN7t3%/ 7/7 /7/70,' /7 /7/. 7/ /7/ / S L N I, / / 3 50 / / 50 // //. -EARTHWORK tV/, / 7/ _ / // / // /7 //, 4/% //4 50% 0 % // // 7/ /7 /7 -STRUCTURES /7, // / // / / /// /7 / /7 30%// O// 50% / /'/ 20% /7 30% ,, / -ELECT-HYDROMECH. EQUIPMENT o'I in// o i11 o f11 '11O// ,'/ -IDBDINZ zZ/7 / , / 7 ",/ ////7 / 7/ SUB-SURFACE DRAINAGE (a,, / 0// / W//' // OW /' oj 2o', / 2'/ 7/ 2,, // 40% 2 07 /2 -TILE DRAINAGER1'/, 7/
ROADS ~ 7& /~7' ' " LAND C / 25% / 30% 0 / '/ 15% /X -EARTHWORK l'.,, // 'I-/ ~ // W ,/ / 2"/o 40% 1 / /// 25%30z%/ /3 30% / z 1 -STRUCTURES / /ZZ,/ ,/ 7 / -'/fl' LAND LEVLLING 'Z, ~ /7 Z// __ / z" _ /7 / / ///, " o SAVA FLOOD CONTROL DIKE ~ 77/ 5%~50% / '"' ~ " 7/, /7 ~ /7/ /7 77/ 7/ /7//7 -EARTHWORK 7/, / /7 '' //// / /7// /i" 7/, 7/ /// 50% /7 77/ 50% /7 //. """ "/ / -STRUCTURES /,7 7 ,' ~ i " 7 '""/ ON-FARMODEV. AND MISC.WVORKS7/7/ /7////7//"/7
-REMOVAL OF BRUSHWOOD AND 7/, ~ 30% "'i """ 40% "~ """"' 30% 's /7 oB TREE-STUMPS7//7 // / 7/// / 7 7 i' /7, ~~~~~~~~~ 30~% 7/// 40% /7 /7 30% /7//7 -LAND LEVELLING /,/ / " / - / / / n s/// ENGINEERING~~~~~~~~~~~Z/7/, /7 /7/ _i- /7 /7/ ~~~~~~~__5%_z'7 ~~~~~25% 50% / j7'25% WIDE BEDDING -,-"-"' ""i a " 7//
-DEEP PLOWING /7,/ 7 7//X7% /47 0 ~FACILITIESFORO0AND M/
EQUIPMENT AND MACHINERY /,7 7 0 " "" EXTNSINNO ESERC SEVICS /7, 7/ // // /// /7 /7//- / /// 7/
-EQUIPMENT FOR 0 AND M /7/ , !7 ///// // /77/ /7// // /7 /7/// /7/ /7, 7/ /7/ 7/// 50% 7 /77,/ _ /7 ., /" /7/,., ~~~~~~~50%/ /77// .Z/7 /7 7/7 _ /, -FARM EQUIPMENT7/ // in // m / /7" 7 20% /7 ~ 20% ' " o% '"7 20% " " 20% LAND CONSOLIDATION 7% T
ENGINEERiNG ; / /, 10% /7// 25% /7// 25% /7// 25% 15 " ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT /7 // //15
TRAINING OF PERSONNEL /7 7 ~ / $" MISC. FEASIBILITY STUDIES/77, ;; %; 7/, ~~~~~~~~~ ~30% 7/// 30% /7// 20% ~ "' 20% / EXTENSION AND RESEARCH SERVICES 7//7 7 ' / m /77/""'. -. /
WorlId Bank-2365.4 - 82 -
APPRAISAL OF SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE PROJECT YUGOSLAVIA - SR. BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA BOAL SEMBERIJA DRAINAGE (FOR CONSTRUCTION)
PROJECT DIRECTOR
PROJECT SECRETARIAT
FINANCIAL TECHNICAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE AGRICULTURAL DIRECTOR CONSTRUCTION DIRECTCR DIRECTOR DIRECTOR
LEGAL |
ENGINEERS
UNIT FOR UNIT FOR UNIT FOR MAIN SECONDARY DIKES UNIT FOR DRAINAGE AND TERTIARY AND ROAD LAND IMPROVEMENT NETWORK NETWORK NETWORK AND FIELD DRAINAGE
L…______( _ AUXILIARY STAFF
World Bank- 23657 IBRD 16222
O 1 S2 3 4,. .,KELA'5 )OM.JZ ' 0- ) FEBRUARY 1989 1000 0 2 3 4 )CM SEL METERS KL.OMETERS
PUNJACA
TOPOLCA14 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ oSTSREMSKA RACA
YUGOSLAVIA SR.BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA Bsi Drainagearea boundary Main roads Subarea boundary Secondary roads: Dikes: ~~~~~~Existing Thta h-pb.. .ptcp at.d.ythed- (, ..- / Existing Proposed WoldhcnYks -sttteh,--- y 0 = Tobe constructed Railway th. -,oe,e-c of te -ed-t of Rala the 'epo- to h,oh -t a-ahed. Th d,t-tt -a,o -sd-etd ttte b-tnd-t,h-o Otth,a-t tt. \ Interceptor canals; Areas under file drainage do not-- ply on de pt,t of the uTnde ,ld--1-h.aa,.at-e,ty jf Existing Areas underwidebedding htdhtttti0th, leganmosamtOs |f t,\ t bedding oanytenototytetthnceoflv-b-d-e ) Proposed Villages '._AUSTRIA, , Drains: _ Rivers . -/ \, HUNGOARY ITALYh57OV ROMANIA Exist ing f \x Streams N._^,n,t>'~'J'l xfl // / -->-g \ \ \ // Proposed: fft, CRO dOSNI *'i-t. BeIsoode~ i ___Ard Secondary- Republic boundaries yX <2< So-'YLGO LBA V I A (k ' Proposed ITALY ) ACf ONIA _- C BIJELJINA I r GREEcE :.