DOCSLIB.ORG

ECSP Report 7

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
ECSP Report 7 I TABLE OF CONTENTS iii Foreword By Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Editor 1 Features 1 CONFLICT: A CAUSE AND EFFECT OF HUNGER By Ellen Messer, Marc J. Cohen, and Thomas Marchione 21 ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND HUMAN SECURITY IN NORTHERN PAKISTAN By Richard A. Matthew 36 DILEMMAS FOR CONSERVATION IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON By Margaret E. Keck 51 BRAZIL’S SIVAM: AS IT MONITORS THE AMAZON, WILL IT FULFILL ITS HUMAN SECURITY PROMISE? By Thomaz Guedes da Costa 59 Commentaries THE U.S. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL’S GLOBAL TRENDS 2015: EXCERPTS, COMMENTARIES, AND RESPONSE Rear Admiral Eugene J. Carroll, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) Gavin Kitchingham Richard Cincotta Gayl Ness Johanna Mendelson Forman David Rejeski Michael Hanssler and Arno Weinmann Ervin J. Rokke Liliana Hisas Judith Shapiro Leslie Johnston Michael J. White Michael Ledeen Alexey Yablokov Ellen Laipson 101 Forum IS THERE A POPULATION IMPLOSION? Carmen Barroso Sonia Corrêa Stan Bernstein Nicholas J. Eberstadt Amy Coen Parfait M. Eloundou-Enyegue 125 Special Reports 125 THE LINKAGES BETWEEN POPULATION AND WATER: FORTHCOMING PAPERS FROM ECSP By Shanda Leather II 133 ENVIRONMENTAL MISSION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY By Captain Steve Kiser, USAF 139 Official Statements By George W. Bush, Colin Powell, Andrew S. Natsios, Bill Frist, Bob Smith, Kofi Annan, Thoraya A. Obaid, Gro Harlem Brundtland, Mark Malloch Brown, Klaus Toepfer, Kader Asmal, The British Ministry of Defence, Ludger Volmer, Erich Stather, Alexander Downer, Hun Sen, C.P. Thakur, and Nkosazana Diamini-Zuma 161 New Publications Lowi and Shaw: Environment and Security: Discourses and Practices .................................. ....... 163 Kahl: States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World .................................................... 166 Diehl and Gleditch: Environmental Conflict ................................................................................... 167 Barnett: The Meaning of Environmental Security ...................................................... ................... 169 Ingram and Blatter: Reflections on Water ........................................................................................ 172 Naan: Environment & National Security: The Case of South Asia .................................................. 175 Hastings: Ecology of War and Peace: Counting Costs of Conflict .................................................. 177 Moloff: Environmental Security and Engagement in Central Command ........................................ 178 Ascher and Mirovitskya: The Caspian Sea: A Quest for Environmental Security .......................... 179 Smith and Naím: Altered States: Globalization, Sovereignty, and Governance ............................. 180 Moodie et al.: Contagion and Conflict: Health as a Global Security Challenge ............................ 182 Nichiporuk: The Security Dynamics of Demographic Factors ........................................................ 184 Homer-Dixon: The Ingenuity Gap ................................................................................................... 186 National Research Council: The Pervasive Role of Science, Technology, and Health in Foreign Policy: Imperatives for the Department of State ................................................... 187 Gleick: The World’s Water 2000-2001: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources ................. 189 Granfelt: Managing the Globalized Environment: Local Strategies to Secure Livelihoods ............ 190 Florini: The Third Force: The Rise of Transnational Society .......................................................... 193 Adamson et al.: How Americans View Population Issues: A Survey of Public Opinion .................. 194 Rosan, Ruble, and Tulchin: Urbanization, Population, Environment, and Security ........................ 196 197 ECSP Meetings Russian Environmental Activist Facing Charges Visits Wilson Center ............................................ 199 Wilson Center Hosts Forum on HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa ........................................................ 200 Environment, Population, and Conflict: Assessing Linkages ........................................................... 202 Vanishing Borders: Protecting the Planet in the Age of Globalization ............................................. 204 Trade and the Environment: Institutional Cooperation ..................................................................... 205 Environmental Security: A Developing Country Perspective ........................................................... 206 Transboundary Biosphere Conservation, Development, and Peace-Building: Lessons from the Altai Mountains ........................................................................................................... 208 Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World ........ 209 Globalization and Ecological Security: The Next Twenty Years ...................................................... 210 Migration and the Environment in Developing Countries ................................................................ 212 Remote Sensing and Environmental Treaties: Building More Effective Linkages .......................... 213 Why the Family Planning Movement Shouldn’t Be Afraid of Its History ....................................... 215 The Chernobyl Shutdown: End or Continuation of an Era? ............................................................. 216 III Exploring the Links Between Global Environmental Change and Human Security and Population: A Meeting in the AVISO Policy Briefing Series ................................................ 218 The Challenge of Ending Rural Poverty: Special Release and Discussion of the New 2001 IFAD Rural Poverty Report.............. ......................................................... .......... 221 U.S. Policy and the Global Environment: Memos to the President ................................................... 224 “The Urban Explosion”—A Film in the 2001 D.C. Environmental Film Festival ............................ 226 Risks of Conflict: Resource and Population Pressures ...................................................................... 228 Conflict and Contagion: A South Asia Simulation ............................................................................ 230 Young Men and War: The Male Age Composition Hypothesis ......................................................... 232 235 Update Academic Programs; Foundations; Nongovernmental Organizations; Governmental Activities; and Intergovernmental Activities 273 Bibliographic Guide to the Literature IV FOREWORD By Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Editor acilitating dialogue is at the heart of the of both the Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) and its home, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. While the Wilson Center F fosters conversation between the worlds of scholarship and policy on a myriad of topics, ECSP focuses on identifying connections among the critical global issues of population, environmental change, and security. We trust that you will find this, our seventh annual issue of the ECSP Report, a most substantive contribution to those efforts. In our lead article, Ellen Messer, Marc Cohen, and Thomas Marchione highlight the need to explore linkages between different sectors of concern. Their examination of hunger as a cause and effect of conflict provides a grim account of all aspects of this cycle while also identifying positive steps to address the political challenges of this problem. Richard Matthew, a frequent contributor to ECSP efforts, then reports on his recent investigation of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province. Matthew finds environmental, demographic, and health factors key to understanding the oppressive human insecurity in this region. Brazil provides the regional focus for Issue 7 with contributions by two close observers. Margaret Keck’s article lays a foundation for understanding environmental activism in the Brazilian Amazon, a crucial history for any public or private initiative engaging in Amazonian environmental or demographic collaborations. Thomaz Guedes da Costa then looks closely at SIVAM, Brazil’s heralded new information-gathering system for the Amazon. While this massive project has been sold domestically and internationally as a generator of both security and environmental data, da Costa finds that SIVAM thus far is oriented exclusively towards traditional defense goals, with virtually no mechanisms in place to reap gains from the environmental, demographic, migration, and development information that could surely flow from this system. In a special report, Steve Kiser also picks up this environmental monitoring theme, providing recommendations for how U.S. intelligence community assets could be further used for the environmental security mission. A special commentary section on the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2015 report is at the heart of ECSP efforts to facilitate applied learning across institutions. GT 2015, the product of a “dialogue about the future with NGO experts,” is the U.S. intelligence community’s effort to peer over the horizon and identify drivers of change in the next fifteen years. We follow excerpts of the report with commentaries by 14 observers from a wide range of backgrounds; they write on everything from GT 2015’s environmental, health, and demographic predictions to its very fitness as an intelligence product. Continuing the constructive dialogue, NIC Acting Chairman Ellen Laipson
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Origins and Impact of Environmental Conflict Ideas
    STRATEGIC SCARCITY: THE ORIGINS AND IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT IDEAS Elizabeth Hartmann Development Studies Institute London School of Economics and Political Science Submitted for the degree of PhD 2002 1 UMI Number: U615457 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615457 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 rM£ S£S F 20 ABSTRACT Strategic Scarcity: The Origins and Impact of Environmental Conflict Ideas Elizabeth Hartmann This thesis examines the origins and impact of environmental conflict ideas. It focuses on the work of Canadian political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon, whose model of environmental conflict achieved considerable prominence in U.S. foreign policy circles in the 1990s. The thesis argues that this success was due in part to widely shared neo-Malthusian assumptions about the Third World, and to the support of private foundations and policymakers with a strategic interest in promoting these views. It analyzes how population control became an important feature of American foreign policy and environmentalism in the post-World War Two period. It then describes the role of the "degradation narrative" — the belief that population pressures and poverty precipitate environmental degradation, migration, and violent conflict — in the development of the environment and security field.
    [Show full text]
  • THD Bio Apr 2021
    Thomas Homer-Dixon is Director of the Cascade Institute at Royal Road University, and he holds a University Research Chair in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Waterloo in Waterloo, Canada. Between 2009 and 2014, he was founding director of the Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation and prior to that the Director of the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Toronto. Born in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, he received his B.A. in political science from Carleton University in 1980 and his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in international relations, defense and arms control policy, and conflict theory in 1989. He then moved to the University of Toronto to lead several pioneering research projects investigating the links between environmental stress and violence in poor countries. Since joining the University of Waterloo in 2008, his research has focused on threats to global security in the 21st century, including economic instability, climate change, and energy scarcity. He also studies how people, organizations, and societies can better resolve their conflicts and innovate in response to complex problems. His work is highly interdisciplinary, drawing on political science, economics, environmental studies, geography, cognitive science, social psychology, and complex systems theory. He teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on topics ranging from environmental security to international relations and complexity theory. In 1999 he received the University of Toronto’s Northrop Frye Teaching Award for integrating teaching and research. Dr. Homer-Dixon’s books include Commanding Hope, The Upside of Down, which won Canada’s 2006 National Business Book Award, The Ingenuity Gap, which won the 2001 Governor General’s Non-fiction Award, and Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, which won the 2000 Caldwell Prize of the American Political Science Association.
    [Show full text]
  • Curriculum Vitae
    CURRICULUM VITAE :::: www.homerdixon.com October 2008 Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, B.A., Ph. D. Address Balsillie School of International Affairs c/o Centre for International Governance Innovation 57 Erb Street West Waterloo, Ontario CANADA N2L 6C2 Office Phone: 519-888-4567, x38750 Email: [email protected] Born 1956, Victoria, CANADA Citizenship Canadian Research Interests Societal innovation in response to complex change Climate change, energy scarcity, and global security Characteristics of steady-state societies Causes of societal collapse Open-architecture democratic governance Applications of complex systems theory to social phenomena Education 1989 Ph.D., Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dissertation: “They and We: An Empirical and Philosophical Study of a Theory of Social Conflict.” Supervisor: Hayward Alker. 1980 B.A. (First Class Honours), Political Science, Carleton University, Ottawa. Employment Faculty, University of Waterloo: 2008 – present Joint appointment: CIGI Chair of Global Systems, Balsillie School of International Affairs; full Professor, Faculty of Arts and Faculty of Environment Faculty, University of Toronto: 1993 – 2008 Joint appointment in the University College and the Department of Political Science (Assistant Professor, 1993-98; promoted to Associate Professor, 1998; promoted to full Professor, 2006). Appointed George Ignatieff Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies, University College, 2007. 1 Employment continued Administration, University of Toronto: 2001 – 2007 Director, Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University College. 1990 – 2001 Director, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University College. Research, University of Toronto: 1990 – 1993 Principal Investigator (salaried), Project on Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Other: 1975 – 1983 Jobs in the construction, forestry, and petroleum industries in western Canada and as the leader of a national student organization based in Ottawa.
    [Show full text]
  • Why We Need New Ways of Thinking
    COMPLEXITY CHAOS COLLAPSE COMMUNITY CREATIVITY COMPASSION Why We Need New Ways of Thinking BY BARRY BOYCE IN 1988, Kurt Schmoke, the young firebrand mayor of Balti- more, shocked the U.S. Conference of Mayors by proposing the decriminalization of drugs. Advocating an approach he would come to call “medicalization,” Schmoke argued that drugs ought to be a matter of public health, not law enforcement. Schmoke’s radical—and compassionate—attempt to demilitarize the war Variety Pack PAINTINGS BY JACK BISHOP on drugs earned him the label “the most dangerous man in America” and ruined his political career. In a fictional treatment 40 SHAMBHALA SUN SEPTEMBER 2008 SHAMBHALA SUN SEPTEMBER 2008 41 of the controversy, former Baltimore Sun reporter David Simon, criteria. It must simultaneously be systematic (not piecemeal and in the HBO series The Wire, cast Schmoke himself as a public divided into silos), participative (involving many people’s ideas, health official and depicted a police commander as the spear- energy, talent, and expertise), and emergent (able to move and head of the medicalization approach. adapt nimbly in a minefield of uncertainty).T he hope is that we Simon wanted to show how entrenched thinking—reinforced will act with courage and creativity; the fear is that if we don’t, within the organizations created by that thinking—makes creative the world will face debilitating collapse on many fronts. approaches almost impossible, because they are literally unthink- Over the past several months, I have been poring over the able. At a critical moment in the show, the police commander books and papers of four thinkers looking for new ways to solve meets with his top officers.
    [Show full text]
  • Curriculum Vitae (PDF)
    Thomas F. Homer-Dixon, B.A., Ph. D. Curriculum Vitae, August 2018 Address Room 312 Balsillie School of International Affairs 67 Erb Street West Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2 CANADA Office Phone: 226-772-3092 Email: [email protected] Born 1956, Victoria, CANADA Citizenship Canadian General Research Interests Complex threats to global security Climate change, energy security, and public policy The structure and change of political ideologies Causes and resolution of violent conflict Growth and decline of social systems Education 1989 PhD, Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dissertation: “They and We: An Empirical and Philosophical Study of a Theory of Social Conflict.” Supervisor: Hayward Alker. 1980 BA (First Class Honours), Political Science, Carleton University, Ottawa. 1 Employment University of Waterloo: Faculty: CIGI Chair of Global Systems, Balsillie School of International Affairs, 2008- present; Full Professor, Faculty of Arts, 2008-2014; Full Professor, Faculty of Environment, 2014-present, with cross-appointment, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Arts. Administration: Founding Director, Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation, 2009-2014; Associate Director, 2014-16. University of Toronto: Faculty: Joint appointment: University College and the Department of Political Science, 1993-2008; Assistant Professor, 1993; promoted to Associate Professor, 1998; promoted to full Professor, 2006; appointed George Ignatieff Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies, University College, 2007. Administration: Director, Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University College, 1990-2001; Director, Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University College, 2001-2004; Founding Director, Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University College, 2004-2007. Research: 1990-1993 Principal Investigator (salaried), Project on Environmental Change and Acute Conflict.
    [Show full text]