Random Walks on Discrete Point Processes
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Conditioning and Markov Properties
Conditioning and Markov properties Anders Rønn-Nielsen Ernst Hansen Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Copenhagen Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Copenhagen Universitetsparken 5 DK-2100 Copenhagen Copyright 2014 Anders Rønn-Nielsen & Ernst Hansen ISBN 978-87-7078-980-6 Contents Preface v 1 Conditional distributions 1 1.1 Markov kernels . 1 1.2 Integration of Markov kernels . 3 1.3 Properties for the integration measure . 6 1.4 Conditional distributions . 10 1.5 Existence of conditional distributions . 16 1.6 Exercises . 23 2 Conditional distributions: Transformations and moments 27 2.1 Transformations of conditional distributions . 27 2.2 Conditional moments . 35 2.3 Exercises . 41 3 Conditional independence 51 3.1 Conditional probabilities given a σ{algebra . 52 3.2 Conditionally independent events . 53 3.3 Conditionally independent σ-algebras . 55 3.4 Shifting information around . 59 3.5 Conditionally independent random variables . 61 3.6 Exercises . 68 4 Markov chains 71 4.1 The fundamental Markov property . 71 4.2 The strong Markov property . 84 4.3 Homogeneity . 90 4.4 An integration formula for a homogeneous Markov chain . 99 4.5 The Chapmann-Kolmogorov equations . 100 iv CONTENTS 4.6 Stationary distributions . 103 4.7 Exercises . 104 5 Ergodic theory for Markov chains on general state spaces 111 5.1 Convergence of transition probabilities . 113 5.2 Transition probabilities with densities . 115 5.3 Asymptotic stability . 117 5.4 Minorisation . 122 5.5 The drift criterion . 127 5.6 Exercises . 131 6 An introduction to Bayesian networks 141 6.1 Introduction . 141 6.2 Directed graphs . -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
Markov Chains on a General State Space
Markov chains on measurable spaces Lecture notes Dimitri Petritis Master STS mention mathématiques Rennes UFR Mathématiques Preliminary draft of April 2012 ©2005–2012 Petritis, Preliminary draft, last updated April 2012 Contents 1 Introduction1 1.1 Motivating example.............................1 1.2 Observations and questions........................3 2 Kernels5 2.1 Notation...................................5 2.2 Transition kernels..............................6 2.3 Examples-exercises.............................7 2.3.1 Integral kernels...........................7 2.3.2 Convolution kernels........................9 2.3.3 Point transformation kernels................... 11 2.4 Markovian kernels............................. 11 2.5 Further exercises.............................. 12 3 Trajectory spaces 15 3.1 Motivation.................................. 15 3.2 Construction of the trajectory space................... 17 3.2.1 Notation............................... 17 3.3 The Ionescu Tulce˘atheorem....................... 18 3.4 Weak Markov property........................... 22 3.5 Strong Markov property.......................... 24 3.6 Examples-exercises............................. 26 4 Markov chains on finite sets 31 i ii 4.1 Basic construction............................. 31 4.2 Some standard results from linear algebra............... 32 4.3 Positive matrices.............................. 36 4.4 Complements on spectral properties.................. 41 4.4.1 Spectral constraints stemming from algebraic properties of the stochastic matrix....................... -
Rescaling Marked Point Processes
1 Rescaling Marked Point Processes David Vere-Jones1, Victoria University of Wellington Frederic Paik Schoenberg2, University of California, Los Angeles Abstract In 1971, Meyer showed how one could use the compensator to rescale a multivari- ate point process, forming independent Poisson processes with intensity one. Meyer’s result has been generalized to multi-dimensional point processes. Here, we explore gen- eralization of Meyer’s theorem to the case of marked point processes, where the mark space may be quite general. Assuming simplicity and the existence of a conditional intensity, we show that a marked point process can be transformed into a compound Poisson process with unit total rate and a fixed mark distribution. ** Key words: residual analysis, random time change, Meyer’s theorem, model evaluation, intensity, compensator, Poisson process. ** 1 Department of Mathematics, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 196, Welling- ton, New Zealand. [email protected] 2 Department of Statistics, 8142 Math-Science Building, University of California, Los Angeles, 90095-1554. [email protected] Vere-Jones and Schoenberg. Rescaling Marked Point Processes 2 1 Introduction. Before other matters, both authors would like express their appreciation to Daryl for his stimulating and forgiving company, and to wish him a long and fruitful continuation of his mathematical, musical, woodworking, and many other activities. In particular, it is a real pleasure for the first author to acknowledge his gratitude to Daryl for his hard work, good humour, generosity and continuing friendship throughout the development of (innumerable draft versions and now even two editions of) their joint text on point processes. -
Pre-Publication Accepted Manuscript
P´eterE. Frenkel Convergence of graphs with intermediate density Transactions of the American Mathematical Society DOI: 10.1090/tran/7036 Accepted Manuscript This is a preliminary PDF of the author-produced manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. It has not been copyedited, proof- read, or finalized by AMS Production staff. Once the accepted manuscript has been copyedited, proofread, and finalized by AMS Production staff, the article will be published in electronic form as a \Recently Published Article" before being placed in an issue. That electronically published article will become the Version of Record. This preliminary version is available to AMS members prior to publication of the Version of Record, and in limited cases it is also made accessible to everyone one year after the publication date of the Version of Record. The Version of Record is accessible to everyone five years after publication in an issue. This is a pre-publication version of this article, which may differ from the final published version. Copyright restrictions may apply. CONVERGENCE OF GRAPHS WITH INTERMEDIATE DENSITY PÉTER E. FRENKEL Abstract. We propose a notion of graph convergence that interpolates between the Benjamini–Schramm convergence of bounded degree graphs and the dense graph convergence developed by László Lovász and his coauthors. We prove that spectra of graphs, and also some important graph parameters such as numbers of colorings or matchings, behave well in convergent graph sequences. Special attention is given to graph sequences of large essential girth, for which asymptotics of coloring numbers are explicitly calculated. We also treat numbers of matchings in approximately regular graphs. -
Lecture 26 : Poisson Point Processes
Lecture 26 : Poisson Point Processes STAT205 Lecturer: Jim Pitman Scribe: Ben Hough <[email protected]> In this lecture, we consider a measure space (S; S; µ), where µ is a σ-finite measure (i.e. S may be written as a disjoint union of sets of finite µ-measure). 26.1 The Poisson Point Process Definition 26.1 A Poisson Point Process (P.P.P.) with intensity µ is a collection of random variables N(A; !), A 2 S, ! 2 Ω defined on a probability space (Ω; F; P) such that: 1. N(·; !) is a counting measure on (S; S) for each ! 2 Ω. 2. N(A; ·) is Poisson with mean µ(A): − P e µ(A)(µ(A))k (N(A) = k) = k! all A 2 S. 3. If A1, A2, ... are disjoint sets then N(A1; ·), N(A2; ·), ... are independent random variables. Theorem 26.2 P.P.P.'s exist. Proof Sketch: It's not enough to quote Kolmogorov's Extension Theorem. The only convincing argument is to give an explicit constuction from sequences of independent random variables. We begin by considering the case µ(S) < 1. P µ(A) 1. Take X1, X2, ... to be i.i.d. random variables so that (Xi 2 A) = µ(S) . 2. Take N(S) to be a Poisson random variable with mean µ(S), independent of the Xi's. Assume all random varibles are defined on the same probability space (Ω; F; P). N(S) 3. Define N(A) = i=1 1(Xi2A), for all A 2 S. P 1 Now verify that this N(A; !) is a P.P.P. -
A Course in Interacting Particle Systems
A Course in Interacting Particle Systems J.M. Swart January 14, 2020 arXiv:1703.10007v2 [math.PR] 13 Jan 2020 2 Contents 1 Introduction 7 1.1 General set-up . .7 1.2 The voter model . .9 1.3 The contact process . 11 1.4 Ising and Potts models . 14 1.5 Phase transitions . 17 1.6 Variations on the voter model . 20 1.7 Further models . 22 2 Continuous-time Markov chains 27 2.1 Poisson point sets . 27 2.2 Transition probabilities and generators . 30 2.3 Poisson construction of Markov processes . 31 2.4 Examples of Poisson representations . 33 3 The mean-field limit 35 3.1 Processes on the complete graph . 35 3.2 The mean-field limit of the Ising model . 36 3.3 Analysis of the mean-field model . 38 3.4 Functions of Markov processes . 42 3.5 The mean-field contact process . 47 3.6 The mean-field voter model . 49 3.7 Exercises . 51 4 Construction and ergodicity 53 4.1 Introduction . 53 4.2 Feller processes . 54 4.3 Poisson construction . 63 4.4 Generator construction . 72 4.5 Ergodicity . 79 4.6 Application to the Ising model . 81 4.7 Further results . 85 5 Monotonicity 89 5.1 The stochastic order . 89 5.2 The upper and lower invariant laws . 94 5.3 The contact process . 97 5.4 Other examples . 100 3 4 CONTENTS 5.5 Exercises . 101 6 Duality 105 6.1 Introduction . 105 6.2 Additive systems duality . 106 6.3 Cancellative systems duality . 113 6.4 Other dualities . -
Point Processes, Temporal
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by CiteSeerX Point processes, temporal David R. Brillinger, Peter M. Guttorp & Frederic Paik Schoenberg Volume 3, pp 1577–1581 in Encyclopedia of Environmetrics (ISBN 0471 899976) Edited by Abdel H. El-Shaarawi and Walter W. Piegorsch John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, 2002 is an encyclopedic account of the theory of the Point processes, temporal subject. A temporal point process is a random process whose Examples realizations consist of the times fjg, j 2 , j D 0, š1, š2,... of isolated events scattered in time. A Examples of point processes abound in the point process is also known as a counting process or environment; we have already mentioned times a random scatter. The times may correspond to events of floods. There are also times of earthquakes, of several types. fires, deaths, accidents, hurricanes, storms (hale, Figure 1 presents an example of temporal point ice, thunder), volcanic eruptions, lightning strikes, process data. The figure actually provides three dif- tornadoes, power outages, chemical spills (see ferent ways of representing the timing of floods Meteorological extremes; Natural disasters). on the Amazon River near Manaus, Brazil, dur- ing the period 1892–1992 (see Hydrological ex- tremes)[7]. Questions The formal use of the concept of point process has a long history going back at least to the life tables The questions that scientists ask involving point of Graunt [14]. Physicists contributed many ideas in process data include the following. Is a point pro- the first half of the twentieth century; see, for ex- cess associated with another process? Is the associ- ample, [23]. -
CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION Definition 1. Let (Ω,F,P) Be A
CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION STEVEN P.LALLEY 1. CONDITIONAL EXPECTATION: L2 THEORY ¡ Definition 1. Let (,F ,P) be a probability space and let G be a σ algebra contained in F . For ¡ any real random variable X L2(,F ,P), define E(X G ) to be the orthogonal projection of X 2 j onto the closed subspace L2(,G ,P). This definition may seem a bit strange at first, as it seems not to have any connection with the naive definition of conditional probability that you may have learned in elementary prob- ability. However, there is a compelling rationale for Definition 1: the orthogonal projection E(X G ) minimizes the expected squared difference E(X Y )2 among all random variables Y j ¡ 2 L2(,G ,P), so in a sense it is the best predictor of X based on the information in G . It may be helpful to consider the special case where the σ algebra G is generated by a single random ¡ variable Y , i.e., G σ(Y ). In this case, every G measurable random variable is a Borel function Æ ¡ of Y (exercise!), so E(X G ) is the unique Borel function h(Y ) (up to sets of probability zero) that j minimizes E(X h(Y ))2. The following exercise indicates that the special case where G σ(Y ) ¡ Æ for some real-valued random variable Y is in fact very general. Exercise 1. Show that if G is countably generated (that is, there is some countable collection of set B G such that G is the smallest σ algebra containing all of the sets B ) then there is a j 2 ¡ j G measurable real random variable Y such that G σ(Y ). -
Martingale Representation in the Enlargement of the Filtration Generated by a Point Process Paolo Di Tella, Monique Jeanblanc
Martingale Representation in the Enlargement of the Filtration Generated by a Point Process Paolo Di Tella, Monique Jeanblanc To cite this version: Paolo Di Tella, Monique Jeanblanc. Martingale Representation in the Enlargement of the Filtration Generated by a Point Process. 2019. hal-02146840 HAL Id: hal-02146840 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02146840 Preprint submitted on 4 Jun 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Martingale Representation in the Enlargement of the Filtration Generated by a Point Process Paolo Di Tella1;2 and Monique Jeanblanc3 Abstract Let X be a point process and let X denote the filtration generated by X. In this paper we study martingale representation theorems in the filtration G obtained as an initial and progressive enlargement of the filtration X. In particular, the progressive enlargement is done by means of a whole point process H. We work here in full generality, without requiring any further assumption on the process H and we recover the special case in which X is enlarged progressively by a random time t. Keywords: Point processes, martingale representation, progressive enlargement, initial enlargement, random measures. -
Geometric Ergodicity of the Random Walk Metropolis with Position-Dependent Proposal Covariance
mathematics Article Geometric Ergodicity of the Random Walk Metropolis with Position-Dependent Proposal Covariance Samuel Livingstone Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK; [email protected] Abstract: We consider a Metropolis–Hastings method with proposal N (x, hG(x)−1), where x is the current state, and study its ergodicity properties. We show that suitable choices of G(x) can change these ergodicity properties compared to the Random Walk Metropolis case N (x, hS), either for better or worse. We find that if the proposal variance is allowed to grow unboundedly in the tails of the distribution then geometric ergodicity can be established when the target distribution for the algorithm has tails that are heavier than exponential, in contrast to the Random Walk Metropolis case, but that the growth rate must be carefully controlled to prevent the rejection rate approaching unity. We also illustrate that a judicious choice of G(x) can result in a geometrically ergodic chain when probability concentrates on an ever narrower ridge in the tails, something that is again not true for the Random Walk Metropolis. Keywords: Monte Carlo; MCMC; Markov chains; computational statistics; bayesian inference 1. Introduction Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are techniques for estimating expecta- Citation: Livingstone, S. Geometric tions with respect to some probability measure p(·), which need not be normalised. This is Ergodicity of the Random Walk done by sampling a Markov chain which has limiting distribution p(·), and computing Metropolis with Position-Dependent empirical averages. A popular form of MCMC is the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm [1,2], Proposal Covariance. -
Markov Determinantal Point Processes
Markov Determinantal Point Processes Raja Hafiz Affandi Alex Kulesza Emily B. Fox Department of Statistics Dept. of Computer and Information Science Department of Statistics The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania [email protected] University of Pennsylvania [email protected] [email protected] Abstract locations are likewise over-dispersed relative to uniform placement (Bernstein and Gobbel, 1979). Likewise, many A determinantal point process (DPP) is a random practical tasks can be posed in terms of diverse subset selec- process useful for modeling the combinatorial tion. For example, one might want to select a set of frames problem of subset selection. In particular, DPPs from a movie that are representative of its content. Clearly, encourage a random subset Y to contain a diverse diversity is preferable to avoid redundancy; likewise, each set of items selected from a base set Y. For ex- frame should be of high quality. A motivating example we ample, we might use a DPP to display a set of consider throughout the paper is the task of selecting a di- news headlines that are relevant to a user’s inter- verse yet relevant set of news headlines to display to a user. ests while covering a variety of topics. Suppose, One could imagine employing binary Markov random fields however, that we are asked to sequentially se- with negative correlations, but such models often involve lect multiple diverse sets of items, for example, notoriously intractable inference problems. displaying new headlines day-by-day. We might want these sets to be diverse not just individually Determinantal point processes (DPPs), which arise in ran- but also through time, offering headlines today dom matrix theory (Mehta and Gaudin, 1960; Ginibre, 1965) repul- that are unlike the ones shown yesterday.