Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47741-3 — The Arab Winter Stephen J. King Frontmatter More Information

|The Arab Winter

In 2011, the world watched as dictators across the Arab world were toppled from power. In , , , Yemen, , and , ordinary Arab citizens mobilized during the to reinvent the autocratic Arab world into one characterized by democracy, dignity, socio- economic justice, and inviolable human rights. This unique comparative analysis of countries before, during, and after the Arab Spring seeks to explain the divergent outcomes and the disappointing and even harrowing results of efforts to overcome democratic consolidation challenges from the tentative democracy in Tunisia, to the emergence of the Islamic State, to civil and authoritarian retrenchment everywhere else. Tracing the period of the Arab Spring from its background in long-term challenges to autocratic regimes, to the mass uprisings, authoritarian breakdown, and the future projections and requirements for a democratizing conclusion, Stephen J. King establishes a broad but focused history that refines the leading theory of democratization in comparative politics and realigns the narrative of the Arab Spring by bringing its differing results to the fore.

stephen j. king is an associate professor of government at Georgetown University and the author of Liberalization Against Democracy: The Local Politics of Economic Reform in Tunisia (2003) and The New Authoritar- ianism in the Middle East and (2009), and coeditor of The Lure of : The Maghreb after the Arab Spring (2019). He has published multiple articles and book chapters on the politics of eco- nomic reform and regime transition processes in the Arab world.

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© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47741-3 — The Arab Winter Stephen J. King Frontmatter More Information

The Arab Winter

Democratic Consolidation, , and Radical Islamists

stephen j. king Georgetown University

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www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781108477413 DOI: 10.1017/9781108769792

© Stephen J. King 2020 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2020

Printed in the United Kingdom by TJ International Ltd, Padstow Cornwall A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: King, Stephen J. (Stephen Juan), 1961– author. Title: The Arab winter : democratic consolidation, civil war, and radical Islamists / Stephen King. Description: Cambridge, United Kingdom ; New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019040406 (print) | LCCN 2019040407 (ebook) | ISBN 9781108477413 (hardback) | ISBN 9781108708661 (paperback) | ISBN 9781108769792 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Democratization–Arab countries–History–21st century. | Civil war–Arab countries–History–21st century. | Islam and politics–Arab countries–History–21st century. | Arab Spring, 2010- | Arab countries–Politics and government–21st century. Classification: LCC JQ1850.A91 K56 2020 (print) | LCC JQ1850.A91 (ebook) | DDC 909/.097492708312–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019040406 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019040407

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For the Next Arab Spring

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Contents

List of Abbreviations page viii Introduction 1 1 Tunisia 30 2 Egypt 96 3 Libya 157 4 Yemen 211 5 Broken States: Iraq, Syria, and ISIS 249 6 The Arab Winter: Summary and Conclusions 301 Index 315

vii

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Abbreviations*

ABM Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis ABM/WS Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis/Wilayat Sinai ALMP Active Labor Market Programs AQAP al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb ASC Anbar Salvation Council AUC American University in Cairo BPC Basic People’s Congress (Libya) BTI Bertelsmann Stiftung Transformation Index (Country Reports) CAPMAS Central Authority for Public Mobilization and Statistics (Egypt) CFAD Tunisian Center for Training and Support CAOA Central Agency for Organization and Administration (Egypt) CBL Central Bank of Libya CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPA Coalition Provisional Authority (Iraq) CPR Congress for the Republic (Tunisia) CSF Central Security Forces (Egypt) CSO Central Security Organization (Yemen) DFI Development Fund for Iraq DSE Directorate of State Security (Tunisia) ECESR Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights ENA National School of Administration (Tunisia) ERRADA Egyptian Regulatory Reform and Development Activity FJP Freedom and Justice Party (Egypt) FLOSY Front for the Liberation of Occupied South Yemen

* Abbreviations that do not follow the word order presented follow the word order of other languages (French in the case of Tunisia and Kurdish in the case of Iraq).

viii

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List of Abbreviations ix

FSA GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product GNA Government of National Accord (Libya) GNC General National Congress (Libya) GPC General People’s Congress (Libya, Yemen) GSS General Security Services (Iraq) HOR House of Representatives (Libya) HT Hizb al-Tahrir IGC Iraqi Governing Council IFI International Financial Institution IMF International Monetary Fund IAI Islamic Army of Iraq IS Islamic State ISIL Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham JCP Justice and Construction Party (Libya) JMP Joint Meeting Parties (Yemen) KDP Kurdistan Democratic Party KRG Kurdistan Regional Government LGBT Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender LIFG Libyan Islamic Fighting Group LNA Libyan National Army LNSF Libyan National Salvation Front LPA Libyan Political Agreement LROR Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room LTDH Tunisian Human Rights League MB MI6 Military Intelligence, Section 6 (Great Britain) MOI Ministry of the Interior MTI Islamic Tendency Movement NCA National Constituent Assembly (Tunisia) NDC National Dialogue Conference (Yemen) NDF National Defense Forces (Syria) NDP National Democratic Party (Egypt) NFA National Forces Alliance (Libya) NGO Non-governmental Organization NLF National Liberation Front (Yemen) NOC National Oil Corporation (Libya)

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x List of Abbreviations

NSA National Security Apparatus (Egypt) NSB National Security Bureau (Yemen) NSF National Salvation Front (Egypt) NTC National Transitional Council (Libya) PDP Progressive Democratic Party (Tunisia) PDRY People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen PFG Petroleum Facilities Guard (Libya) PIL Political Isolation Law (Libya) PMF Popular Mobilization Force (Iraq) POMEPS Project on Middle East Political Science RCC Revolutionary Command Council (Libya, Iraq) RCD Constitutional Democratic Rally (Tunisia) RC Revolutionary Committee (Libya) ROY Republic of Yemen SAA Syrian Arab Army SCAF Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Egypt) SCC Specialized Criminal Chamber (Tunisia) SCC Supreme Constitutional Court (Egypt) SCIRI Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq SOI Sons of Iraq SSC Supreme Security Council (Libya) SSI State Security Intelligence (Egypt) SSO Special Security Organization (Iraq) TCD Temporary Constitutional Declaration (Libya) TDC Truth and Dignity Commission (Tunisia) TIMEP Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (Egypt) UAE United Arab Emirates UAR United Arab Republic UCLG United Cities and Local Governments UGTT Tunisian General Labor Union UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNSMIL United Nations Support Mission in Libya USAID United States Agency for International Development UTICA Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts VPN Virtual Personal Network WB World Bank YCR Yemeni Congregation for Reform

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List of Abbreviations xi

YEC Yemen Economic Corporation YMCO Yemen Military Economic Corporation YPG Kurdish People’s Protection Units YSP Yemeni Socialist Party

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