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Crop Production (November 2020)

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Crop Production (November 2020) Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch November 10, 2020 Data Sources Operator Reported Ag Yield Sample Size = 7,791 October 30 - November 5 Survey Field Objective Yield Sample Size = 3,930 October 24 - November 1 Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through (Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28 November 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes November 10, 2020 United States Corn Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Acreage, Yield, and Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 90,978 82,527 175.8 14,506,795 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 1.5 ↓ 1.5 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 1.5 ↑ 5.0 ↑ 6.5 Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 184 ↓ 7.1 2,336,800 ↓ 9.6 Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 195 ↑ 7.7 2,184,000 ↑ 18.3 Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 185 ↑ 1.6 1,818,550 ↑ 1.9 Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6 Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Yield United States Bushels per Acre 190 176.6176.4 180 174.6 175.8 171.0 168.4 167.5 170 164.4 160.3 158.1 160 153.3 152.6 150.7 149.1 147.9 146.8 150 142.2 138.6 136.9138.2 140 134.4133.8 131.5 129.3 127.1126.7 130 123.1 120 113.5 108.6 110 100.7 100 90 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab Percent 100 1 90 13 17 80 16 25 70 41 60 50 49 96 96 96 96 94 96 40 80 70 73 68 30 51 20 29 10 0 October October October October October October November November November November November November 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mature Dent November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Objective Yield Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre 29,500 195 190 29,000 185 28,500 180 175 28,000 170 165 27,500 160 27,000 155 Final Final Final Final Final Final October October October October October October November November November November November November September September September September September September 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ears per Acre Yield November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Production United States Billion Bushels 16.0 15.1 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.8 13.6 13.6 14.0 12.3 12.0 10.8 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 2020 U.S. Corn Production Industry Expectations vs NASS Billion Bushels 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 August September October November Final Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate November 10, 2020 United States Soybean Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybeans Acreage, Yield, and Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 83,105 82,289 50.7 4,170,262 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 2.3 ↓ 2.3 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.2 ↑ 9.8 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 17.4 Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 58.0 ↑ 7.4 594,500 ↑ 11.7 Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3 Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5 Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 58.0 ↑ 13.7 329,440 ↑ 20.5 Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 58.0 ↓ 0.9 298,700 ↑ 5.5 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Yield United States Bushels per Acre 54 51.9 50.6 50.7 49.3 48.0 49 47.5 47.4 44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 42.9 44 42.2 42.0 41.4 41.7 40.0 39.6 39.7 38.9 38.9 38.1 38.0 39 37.6 37.6 36.6 35.3 34.2 33.9 34 32.6 29 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybeans NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 95 93 93 93 91 94 40 64 30 57 54 53 49 20 10 25 0 October October October October October October November November November November November November 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mature November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre 2,000 60 1,900 55 1,800 1,700 50 1,600 45 1,500 40 1,400 1,300 35 Final Final Final Final Final Final October October October October October October November November November November November November September September September September September September 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Production United States Billion Bushels 5.0 4.41 4.43 4.30 4.5 4.17 3.93 3.93 4.0 3.55 3.5 3.36 3.10 3.04 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 2020 U.S. Soybean Production Industry Expectations vs NASS Billion Bushels 4.50 4.45 4.40 4.35 4.30 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.10 August September October November Final Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate November 10, 2020 United States Cotton Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Acreage, Yield, and Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales) United States 12,116 9,005 911 17,092 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.3 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.7 ↓ 14.2 Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Pounds/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bales) % ∆ PY Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,157 ↓ 2.8 Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4 Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2 Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7 Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 890 ↓ 4.1 825 ↓ 19.7 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Yield United States Pounds per Acre 980 905 911 930 892 879 882 867 880 855 831 838 822 823 814 813 812 830 790 776 766 780 730 708 730 700 705 705 673 665 680 652 625 632 630 606 607 580 537 530 480 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Yield Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Production United States Million Bales 25.0 20.9 19.9 20.0 18.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.3 15.6 15.0 12.9 12.9 10.0 5.0 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 November 10, 2020 November 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Peanuts 1,665 1,623 4,093 Lb 6,643,320 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.8 ↓ 0.8 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.0 ↑ 21.5 Potatoes 923 916 454 Cwt 415,481 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.6 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 4.2 ↓ 2.3 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 2.1 Rice 3,037 2,991 7,560 Lb 226,121 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.1 ↓ 0.1 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 22.4 Sorghum 5,790 5,000 74.2 Bu 370,770 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.1 ↑ <0.1 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 8.6 Sugarbeets 1,165 1,149 29.6 Ton 33,958 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 5.1 ↓ 5.2 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 18.7 Sugarcane N/A 933 36.2 Ton 33,782 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ <0.1 ↓ 1.1 ↓ 0.9 % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 5.8 November 10, 2020 Selected Upcoming Reports November 20 Cattle on Feed November 24 Cotton Ginnings November 30 Agricultural Prices Cotton System December 1 Fats and Oils Grain Crushings Census of Horticulture December 8 Floriculture Crops Cotton Ginnings December 10 Crop Production https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php November 10, 2020 #StatChat November 10, 2020 All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov For Questions (202) 720-2127 (800) 727-9540 [email protected].
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