Crop Production
Executive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
November 10, 2020 Data Sources
Operator Reported Ag Yield Sample Size = 7,791 October 30 - November 5 Survey
Field Objective Yield Sample Size = 3,930 October 24 - November 1 Survey Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through (Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt September 28 November 2020 Ag Yield Sample Sizes
November 10, 2020 United States Corn Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 90,978 82,527 175.8 14,506,795 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 1.5 ↓ 1.5
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 1.4 ↑ 1.5 ↑ 5.0 ↑ 6.5
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Iowa 13,700 ↑ 1.5 12,700 ↓ 2.7 184 ↓ 7.1 2,336,800 ↓ 9.6 Illinois 11,400 ↑ 8.6 11,200 ↑ 9.8 195 ↑ 7.7 2,184,000 ↑ 18.3 Nebraska 10,200 ↑ 1.0 9,830 ↑ 0.2 185 ↑ 1.6 1,818,550 ↑ 1.9 Minnesota 8,000 ↑ 2.6 7,550 ↑ 4.1 202 ↑ 16.8 1,525,100 ↑ 21.6 Indiana 5,400 ↑ 8.0 5,250 ↑ 8.9 189 ↑ 11.8 992,250 ↑ 21.8
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
190
176.6176.4 180 174.6 175.8 171.0 168.4 167.5 170 164.4 160.3 158.1 160 153.3 152.6 150.7 149.1 147.9 146.8 150 142.2 138.6 136.9138.2 140 134.4133.8 131.5 129.3 127.1126.7 130 123.1
120 113.5 108.6 110 100.7 100 90 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
Percent
100 1 90 13 17 80 16 25 70 41 60 50 49 96 96 96 96 94 96 40 80 70 73 68 30 51 20 29 10
0
October
October
October
October
October
October
November
November
November
November
November November
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mature Dent
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Objective Yield Ears per Acre and Yield for 10 State Region
Ears per Acre Bushels per Acre
29,500 195 190 29,000 185
28,500 180 175 28,000 170 165 27,500 160
27,000 155
Final Final Final Final Final Final
October October October October October October
November November November November November November
September September September September September September
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ears per Acre Yield
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Corn Production United States
Billion Bushels 16.0 15.1 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.8 13.6 13.6 14.0 12.3 12.0 10.8
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 2020 U.S. Corn Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels
15.4
15.2
15.0
14.8
14.6
14.4 August September October November Final Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
November 10, 2020 United States Soybean Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybeans Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 83,105 82,289 50.7 4,170,262 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 2.3 ↓ 2.3
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 9.2 ↑ 9.8 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 17.4
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Illinois 10,300 ↑ 3.5 10,250 ↑ 4.0 58.0 ↑ 7.4 594,500 ↑ 11.7 Iowa 9,400 ↑ 2.2 9,320 ↑ 2.2 54.0 ↓ 1.8 503,280 ↑ 0.3 Minnesota 7,400 ↑ 8.0 7,330 ↑ 8.3 51.0 ↑ 15.9 373,830 ↑ 25.5 Indiana 5,700 ↑ 5.6 5,680 ↑ 6.0 58.0 ↑ 13.7 329,440 ↑ 20.5 Nebraska 5,200 ↑ 6.1 5,150 ↑ 6.4 58.0 ↓ 0.9 298,700 ↑ 5.5
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
54 51.9 50.6 50.7 49.3 48.0 49 47.5 47.4
44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 42.9 44 42.2 42.0 41.4 41.7 40.0 39.6 39.7 38.9 38.9 38.1 38.0 39 37.6 37.6 36.6 35.3 34.2 33.9 34 32.6
29 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybeans NASA Terra MODIS Modeled Yield
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 95 93 93 93 91 94 40 64 30 57 54 53 49 20 10 25
0
October
October
October
October
October
October
November
November
November
November
November November
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mature
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Objective Yield Pods per 18 Square Feet and Yield for 11 State Region
Pods per 18 Square Feet Bushels per Acre 2,000 60
1,900 55 1,800
1,700 50
1,600 45 1,500 40 1,400
1,300 35
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
Final
October
October
October
October
October
October
November
November
November
November
November
November
September
September
September
September
September September
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pods per 18 Square Feet Yield
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Soybean Production United States
Billion Bushels
5.0 4.41 4.43 4.30 4.5 4.17 3.93 3.93 4.0 3.55 3.5 3.36 3.10 3.04 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 2020 U.S. Soybean Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25
4.20
4.15
4.10 August September October November Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
November 10, 2020 United States Cotton Progress Percent Harvested
Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 9/6 9/13 9/20 9/27 10/4 10/11 10/18 10/25 11/1 11/8 11/15 11/22 11/29 12/6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales) United States 12,116 9,005 911 17,092 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.3
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 11.8 ↓ 22.5 ↑ 10.7 ↓ 14.2
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Pounds/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bales) % ∆ PY Texas 6,836 ↓ 3.2 3,880 ↓ 26.2 762 ↑ 31.8 6,157 ↓ 2.8 Georgia 1,200 ↓ 14.3 1,190 ↓ 13.8 968 ↑ 1.6 2,400 ↓ 12.4 Mississippi 530 ↓ 25.4 525 ↓ 25.0 1,198 ↑ 7.7 1,310 ↓ 19.2 Arkansas 525 ↓ 15.3 520 ↓ 14.8 1,200 ↑ 1.3 1,300 ↓ 13.7 Alabama 450 ↓ 16.7 445 ↓ 16.4 890 ↓ 4.1 825 ↓ 19.7
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Yield United States
Pounds per Acre
980
905 911 930 892 879 882 867 880 855 831 838 822 823 814 813 812 830 790 776 766 780 730 708 730 700 705 705 673 665 680 652 625 632 630 606 607 580 537 530 480 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Yield Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Month
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Cotton Production United States
Million Bales
25.0
20.9 19.9 20.0 18.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.3 15.6 15.0 12.9 12.9
10.0
5.0
0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
November 10, 2020 November 2020 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Peanuts 1,665 1,623 4,093 Lb 6,643,320 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.8 ↓ 0.8 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 16.2 ↑ 16.8 ↑ 4.0 ↑ 21.5 Potatoes 923 916 454 Cwt 415,481 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 0.2 ↑ 0.6 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 4.2 ↓ 2.3 ↑ 0.2 ↓ 2.1 Rice 3,037 2,991 7,560 Lb 226,121 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.1 ↓ 0.1 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 19.6 ↑ 21.0 ↑ 1.2 ↑ 22.4 Sorghum 5,790 5,000 74.2 Bu 370,770 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.1 ↑ <0.1 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.0 ↑ 7.0 ↑ 1.6 ↑ 8.6 Sugarbeets 1,165 1,149 29.6 Ton 33,958 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 5.1 ↓ 5.2 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.9 ↑ 17.3 ↑ 1.4 ↑ 18.7 Sugarcane N/A 933 36.2 Ton 33,782 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ <0.1 ↓ 1.1 ↓ 0.9 % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 2.1 ↑ 3.4 ↑ 5.8
November 10, 2020 Selected Upcoming Reports
November 20 Cattle on Feed
November 24 Cotton Ginnings
November 30 Agricultural Prices
Cotton System December 1 Fats and Oils Grain Crushings
Census of Horticulture December 8 Floriculture Crops
Cotton Ginnings December 10 Crop Production
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/index.php
November 10, 2020 #StatChat
November 10, 2020 All Reports Available At
www.nass.usda.gov
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