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Long-Lasting Patterns of Radon in Groundwater at Panzhihua, China: Results from DFA, Fractal Dimensions and Residual Radon Concentration

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Long-Lasting Patterns of Radon in Groundwater at Panzhihua, China: Results from DFA, Fractal Dimensions and Residual Radon Concentration Geochemical Journal, Vol. 53, pp. 341 to 358, 2019 doi:10.2343/geochemj.2.0571 Long-lasting patterns of radon in groundwater at Panzhihua, China: Results from DFA, fractal dimensions and residual radon concentration AFTAB ALAM,1,2,3 NANPING WANG,1,2* GUOFENG ZHAO,4 TAHIR MEHMOOD5 and DIMITRIOS NIKOLOPOULOS6 1Key Laboratory of Geo-detection, Ministry of Education, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 10083, China 2School of Geophysics and Information Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 10083, China 3Centre for Earthquake Studies, National Centre for Physics, Islamabad, Pakistan 4China Earthquake Networks Centre, Beijing, China 5School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Life Sciences (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan 6University of West Attica, Department of Informatics and Computer Engineering, Athens, Greece (Received December 31, 2018; Accepted August 17, 2019) This paper reports chaos and long-memory trends hidden in radon (222Rn) variations in the groundwater of Panzhihua, Sichuan Province, China, between 2012 and 2017. The analysis is performed using sliding-window (a) detrended fluctua- tion analysis (DFA), (b) fractal dimension analysis with the methods of Higuchi, Katz and Sevcik and (c) residual radon concentration (RRC). Several fractional Brownian motion (fBm) persistent time series segments of high predictability are found, with DFA slopes above 1.5 and fractal dimensions, below 1.5. Numerous seven-day segments exhibit RRC out of the ±2s limits and are of noteworthy precursory value. Through a novel two-stage computational approach, the persistent pre-seismic fBm earthquake footprint segments are separated from the low-predictability ones. Several combined seg- ments of dynamical complexity are found with fractal and long-memory behaviour. For these segments, associations are attempted with major (Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes occurred in China and border areas of near countries during the period of study. Out of seventeen earthquakes of the period, four earthquakes are identified with all combinations of methods, whereas the remaining earthquakes, with the combination of at least three methods. Trends of long-memory are identified and discussed. The findings are compatible with fractal, and SOC final phases of generation of earthquakes. Finally, potential geological sources are discussed and analysed. Keywords: radon in groundwater, DFA, fractal dimension, residual radon, earthquakes (Cicerone et al., 2009; Petraki et al., 2015a, b), which is 1. INTRODUCTION expected to be more pronounced in the regions of crust Earthquakes are natural phenomena with negative cracking and fracture (Khan et al., 2011). The efforts to impacts on human lives and property. The strong earth- forecast earthquakes are, in principle, multifaceted and quakes are of major concern not only due to their cata- for this reason, diverging techniques and multilevel ap- strophic nature, but also because they occur inevitably proaches are needed (Eftaxias et al., 2010; Nikolopoulos when certain geophysical conditions exist (e.g., Eftaxias et al., 2018a, b). The related prognosis research prereq- et al., 2010; Nikolopoulos et al., 2016a, 2016b, 2018a, uisites the gradual contraction of time, space and magni- 2018b). Despite the tremendous efforts, earthquakes are tude sizes in areas where strong earthquakes could occur still difficult to foresee (please see reviews of Cicerone (e.g., Petraki et al., 2015a, b). Apart from the electro- et al., 2009; Ghosh et al., 2009; Hayakawa and Hobara, magnetic disturbances of the ULF, LF, HF and VHF ranges 2010; Uyeda et al., 2009). For this reason, the identifica- (e.g., Hayakawa and Hobara, 2010; Petraki et al., 2015b; tion of earthquake precursors remains an elusive and chal- Uyeda et al., 2009) which are extensively used as earth- lenging task (Cantzos et al., 2018) within a general frame- quake precursors, radon-222 (henceforth, radon) has an work to discover credible and unambiguous pre-earth- equal long history in earthquake prognosis (e.g., reviews quake warnings (e.g., Molchanov and Hayakawa, 1998; of Cicerone et al., 2009; Ghosh et al., 2009; Petraki et Petraki et al., 2015a, b). Towards this, various types of al., 2015a). Radon is a radioactive and inert gas produced pre-seismic activity is recorded (e.g., ULF, LF, HF, VHF by the decay of 238U series with a half-life of 3.86 days disturbances, anomalous trace gas and radon emissions) (Nazarrof and Nero, 1988). Upon decay, radon dissolves in soil’s pores and fluids and from there, to surface and *Corresponding author (e-mail: [email protected]) underground waters and atmosphere (Nazarrof and Nero, Copyright © 2019 by The Geochemical Society of Japan. 1988). Radon can migrate at short or long distances from 341 its generation (Richon et al., 2007) and due to this prop- pressed by other investigators. For example, Talwani et erty, it is an efficient pre-earthquake precursor (Barkat et al. (2007) reported that the anomalous behaviour of ra- al., 2018; Cicerone et al., 2009; Nikolopoulos et al., 2012, don gas could be because of the opening of pore’s spaces 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016b, 2018a; Petraki et al., 2013a, during rock fracturing as a result of seismic events. Ex- 2013b, 2015a, 2015b). plosion tests have been performed to identify the rela- Regarding modelling radon underlying dynamics prior tionship between the dynamic loading effect and the ob- to earthquakes, Scholz et al. (1973) reported the served concentrations of radon (Yu et al., 1986). The ex- Dilatancy-Diffusion Model which associates anomalous perimental results revealed that the increase in radon val- radon variations with the mechanical crack growth rate ues was a consequence of seismic waves applied to the in the volume of a dilatancy. According to this model, a rock. According to other investigators (e.g., Awais et al., porous cracked saturated rock constitutes the initial me- 2017; Barkat et al., 2017; Jilani et al., 2017; Riggio and dium. With the increase of the tectonic stresses, the cracks Santulin, 2015), crustal activities have been identified as extend and disengage near the pores, leading to opening one of the reasons for radon emission. of favourably oriented cracks. This results in a decrease Regarding radon anomalies in groundwater, histori- in pore pressure in the total preparation zone, leading to cally the first evidence has been presented after the Great water flow into the zone from the surrounding medium. Tashkent Earthquake of 1966 (Sadovsky et al., 1972). The return of the pore pressure together with the increase Thereafter several studies (e.g., King, 1986; Kumar et al., of cracks may yield to abrupt changes of radon emana- 2012; Ohno and Wakita, 1996; Planinic et al., 2000; tion. Another model is the crack-avalanche (CA) (Lay et Pulinets et al., 1997; Ulomov and Mavashev, 1971; Virk al., 1998; Planninic et al., 2001), according to which, a et al., 2001; Walia et al., 2013; Zmazek et al., 2000) have cracked focal rock zone is formed by the increasing tec- suggested that the fluctuation of radon concentration in tonic stress. The shape and volume of this zone change water could be an efficient tool to predict earthquakes. slowly with time. According to the theory of stress corro- Negarestani et al. (2014) designed a continuous monitor- sion, the anomalous behaviour of radon concentration may ing network of radon for earthquake forecasting and found be associated with this slow crack growth, which is con- that hot springs are useful sources. Prior or post to earth- trolled by the stress corrosion in the rock matrix satu- quakes, radon levels in groundwater increase in the re- rated by groundwater (Anderson and Grew, 1977). gions where high-stress accumulation occurs in the crust Pulinets and Ouzounov (2011) reported the Lithosphere- (Tarakç et al., 2014). Meteorological parameters (precipi- Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Model (LAIC). This tation, temperature, humidity, pressure) and local geologi- model explains the foundations of stress accumulation in cal conditions are factors controlling the subsurface ground due to the relative movement of tectonic blocks degassing process that force the radon gas emanation that latterly cause development of microcracks, fissures (Imme and Morelli, 2012), but the geophysical changes, and fractures. Radon gas emanation from micro-fractures when present, are the dominant factors (Prasad et al., mixes with water and reaches ground by different media. 2006). Transportation of radon from deep layers of the Earth to Despite the extensive published research, there is still the surface usually is performed by water and carrier gases no universal model to describe the various geo-physical (Gregoric et al., 2008). Nikolopoulos et al. (2012, 2013, phases prior to the occurrence of earthquakes 2014, 2018a) and Petraki et al. (2013a, b) proposed the (Nikolopoulos et al., 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016b, asperity model (Eftaxias et al., 2008) to explain radon 2018a; Petraki et al., 2013a, 2013b, 2015a, 2015b). The emanation during preparation of earthquakes. This model scientific community still debates the precursory value explains the fractional Brownian (fBm) class variations of the numerous reports of radon anomalies detected prior found in fractal and long-memory pre-seismic radon time to earthquakes (Eftaxias et al., 2010; Nikolopoulos et al., series. According to this model, the focal area consists of 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016b, 2018a; Petraki et al., a backbone of strong and large asperities that sustain
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