EU and Russia: Lost in Space?

BRUSSELS VIEW

ussia’s involvement in the Ukraine crisis whop Europeans upside the head in retaliation for has turned much of public opinion in the the EU’s Ukraine-related sanctions. “EU sanction West against that country, in particular logic does not fit modern reality”, Russia’s Minis- souring the relationship between the ter of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, is reported to REuropean Union (EU) and Russia. And, while the have said. “Russia’s relations with the EU require a ceasefire signed in September technically is still in rethinking, a reassessment is needed.” force, the EU-Russia rift is far from smoothed over. According to Voice of Russia, a government- Among the possible casualties of this distem- financed broadcasting company combined with PETER GUTIERREZ, per is the cooperation in space that the two sides the RIA Novosti news agency earlier this year into Inside GNSS’s European have laboriously built up since the fall of the Soviet a single Russian government-owned entity, Rossiya correspondent, is a Union and the end of the (first) Cold War. And, as Segodnya, the reassessment resulted in a decision senior reporter and Europe looks once more west for increased GNSS to withdraw from the International Space Station editor based in Brussels, opportunities, Russia is looking east to China. (ISS) in 2020. Russian Soyuz rockets, it said, will no Belgium, who has The flawed launch of the first two full opera- longer serve as a “space taxi” to transport Western written about Europe’s GNSS programs for many tional capability (FOC) Galileo satellites in August, cosmonauts from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in years. He received his which put the spacecraft into incorrect orbits, did Kazakhstan to the ISS. bachelor’s degree from nothing to improve the situation. In announcing its Meanwhile, Russia’s deputy prime minister, the the University of Texas at conclusions in October, an independent board of usually charming Dmitry Rogozin, mixed mockery, Austin and a M.S. degree inquiry formed to analyze the causes of the anoma- politics, and space affairs when he famously sug- from the University ly — which occurred during the orbital injection of gesting via Twitter that the Americans “use a tram- of Massachusetts at the satellites by a Russian Soyuz rocket — pointed poline” to get to the International Space Station. Amherst. the finger at a curious “design ambiguity” in the Coincidentally — or perhaps not, another Rus- launcher’s Fregat module. sian company manufactured the engine used in the The incident has raised new doubts about Rus- unmanned U.S. supply rocket destined for the ISS sia’s dependability as a supplier and EU reliance on that exploded after liftoff in October. Russian resources for its space program. As the standard Western argument goes, Rus- All summer long, while the Russians were sia’s aggressive and mocking rhetoric are only meant lashing out with strong anti-Western messages for the consumption of its own public, but this does in response to EU and U.S. sanctions, the Euro- not lend much comfort for European officials trying pean and American space communities were busy to keep (or get) its GNSS program on track. downplaying the potential collateral effects of souring political relations over the Ukraine crisis. The Commission Says Nothing With billions invested in high-profile space Inmaculada Martinez Garcia, press assistant work- programs like Galileo and Copernicus, however, ing under outgoing European Commission (EC) and with EU public and politicians already fed up Vice-President Antonio Tajani and Commissioner with delays and excuses, the Union’s flagship space Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, issued a noncommittal programs appeared vulnerable. answer when, last April, a month after Russia’s Speaking in Brussels, one unnamed European Crimea annexation, we asked about how the Com- official said, “The situation in Ukraine is very tense mission was handling its contacts with Russian indeed, with many obvious consequences on the partners: “There is no standard rule as to the fre- relationship between Russia and Europe.” quency of contacts with Russian authorities in the area of space. The frequency very much depends on Russia Brandishes Verbal Sword the business at hand.” According to a story reported by Voice of Russia This of course would be the case under any cir- radio last May, Russian newsmakers at that time cumstances, normal or extraordinary. were only too eager to use their Soyuz rockets to “In the framework of a space dialogue,” Mar-

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source, “are more likely to ignore such questions altogether. After all, the EC is more driven by politics, ESA by business.” About that ‘Anomaly’ When a Soyuz launcher released two Galileo navigation satellites into the wrong orbit in August, EC insiders were quick to discount as ridiculous any suggestion of deliberate sabotage. While Russian ground crews managed the launch preparations and the final countdown, Arianespace immediately did the right thing by claiming full responsibility for the launch failure. That didn’t stop speculation about possible foul play as retribution for European sanctions over Ukraine — a theory pooh-poohed by our EU inside experts, who categorically rejected it as laughable. Peter Gutierrez Peter At the same time, most EU officials are con- Space business tinez continued, “both sides consult each other to vinced, rightly or wrongly, that the current Russian as usual — ESA meet as deemed appropriate, in principle once a regime has acted and continues to act in under- Director-General year. As to the EU’s space programs Galileo and handed ways in the Ukraine and beyond. Just not Jean-Jaques Copernicus, there are currently no Russian tech- in space. Dordain addressing nologies involved with the exception of the use of The Independent Inquiry Board formed to Munich Satellite Soyuz launchers by both the Galileo and Coperni- analyze the causes of the anomaly announced its Navigation cus programs.“ definitive conclusions in a press release on October Summit 2014 That’s a pretty important exception, if the object 7, following a meeting at Arianespace headquarters earlier this year. is to get those programs off the ground and into near Paris. space, at least until the new Ariane 5 launcher is The Board, chaired by Peter Dubock, former ready to take over. inspector-general of ESA, confirmed what most We understand that ESA expects to be capable already knew. First, what didn’t cause the failure: of launching four Galileo satellites at once on board “The Board’s conclusions confirm that the first part the Ariane 5, “allowing the completion of the fully of the mission proceeded nominally, which means operational constellation, independently from pos- that the three-stage Soyuz launcher was not at fault. sible problems with Russia,” said one unnamed “The Inquiry Board also eliminated the hypoth- source close to the program. esis that the anomaly could have been caused by the “Soyuz rockets are bought and operated by abnormal behavior of the Galileo satellites.” Arianespace, a French company,” Martinez goes Then — the interesting part — what did cause on, “and launched from the European Spaceport the failure: “The anomaly occurred during the flight in Kourou, French Guiana. A few launches of the of the launcher’s fourth stage, Fregat, designed and Copernicus satellites are also foreseen to take place produced by NPO Lavochkin. It occurred about 35 from the cosmodrome in Plesetsk, Russia. Finally, minutes after liftoff. . . .” we are not in a position to make any speculations The announcement goes on to explain that, at this stage about future evolutions as regards rela- essentially, someone at Lavochkin (Moscow) had tions with Russia.” attached both a critical hydrazine fuel line and a So, nothing we didn’t already know. The EC super-cold helium pressurization line to the same has maintained a prudent distance from the ques- metal support structure. This support acted as a tion of its relations with Russia. Our inside source “thermal bridge,” i.e., the super-cold helium line says one senses two qualities never in short sup- made the nearby metal support super cold, which ply within EC circles — “embarrassment and in turn made the liquid in the nearby fuel line super worry” — when questions of collaborative obli- cold — as in freezing — which, in a nutshell, turned gations with Russia are raised. the mission into a mix-up. “ESA operators, on the other hand,” said our Furthermore, the board concluded, “Ambigui-

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ties in the design documents allowed taging Galileo, nor the mounting trepi- US would be virtually banned from the installation of this type of thermal dation about what Russia could, might, accessing the International Space Sta- bridge between the two lines. In fact, or would do to get even with the sanction. But a similar argument can be such bridges have also been seen on tioning EU. made about getting key infrastructure, other Fregat stages now under produc- such as Galileo satellites, into orbit.” tion at NPO Lavochkin.” Dordain Says No Problem Funny that, with all those other Fre- At the height of the bloodletting in Cool War? gat stages being assembled the wrong eastern Ukraine last June, ESA Direc- In April, the United States officially way, this was the only one that actually tor-General Jean-Jaques Dordain stat- pulled the plug on almost all space malfunctioned on a mission. ed that, as far as he was concerned, all cooperation with Russia as a result The press release goes on to say, “The major cooperative endeavors between of the latter nation’s intervention in design ambiguity is the result of not ESA and Russian partners would pro- Ukraine. A memo to NASA staff from taking into account the relevant thermal ceed as planned. As reported in Space Michael F. O’Brien, NASA associate transfers during the thermal analyses of News, Dordain said, “The European administrator for international and the stage system design.” Space Agency has seen no signs that its interagency relations, said, “Given Rus- It’s not hard to understand how relations with Russia will be curtailed sia’s ongoing violation of Ukraine’s sov- some might find this hard to under- as a result of the confrontation between ereignty and territorial integrity, until stand. We’re talking about the Rus- Russia and the West concerning Russia’s further notice, the U.S. Government sians. The Sputnik, Laika-the-dog, actions in Ukraine.” has determined that all NASA contacts Yuri-Gagarin Russians. Some world- Dordain was speaking after having with Russian Government representa- class, history-making, space-pioneering just returned from a meeting at Russia’s tives are suspended, unless the activity Russian didn’t take into account the Baikonur Cosmodrome with the head has been specifically excepted.” relevant thermal transfers during the of Russia’s Roscosmos space agency, The suspension includes NASA analyses of the stage system design? Oleg Ostapenko. The two had watched travel to Russia and visits by Russian But the board believes it; so, we as ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst blast- government representatives to NASA believe it. After all, the Russian launch ed off, along with NASA and Russian facilities, bilateral meetings, email, and program has been a little spotty in astronauts, on a mission to the ISS. teleconferences or video conferences. recent years. One source in Brussels contrasts the “At the present time, only operational So far, we have no word on the cool attitude of mature and space-savvy International Space Station activities identity of the particular individuals ESA to the nervousness at the European have been excepted,” O’Brien said. “In who attached the offending lines, or Commission, still a relative youngster in addition, multilateral meetings held who prepared and approved the guilty the space business: “In the space con- outside of Russia that may include Rus- production manual, or why the first text, the time scale of all activities and sian participation are not precluded and only Fregat insertion “anomaly” programs tends to smooth down nega- under the present guidance.” occurred when it did. tive peaks and tensions. I do not have Among those meetings are gather- According to the board’s press evidence of immediate impacts on the ings of the International Committee on release, the inquiry — with “the sup- policy of ESA. Just the contrary.” GNSS (ICG), the most recent of which port of Russian partners” — had Is this another example of long- took place November 10–14 in Prague, enabled the rapid identification of the standing differences of opinion, per- Czech Republic, with Russian delegates root cause and the corrective measures spective, and approach between the EU in attendance. to be applied. and ESA? The two have drawn closer in Back in March, however, just days As reported by Space News, at the the years since their historic space coop- after the annexation of Crimea by Rus- press conference Dubock and Sté- eration agreement, but they still come sia, one Federal Aviation Administra- phane Israël, Chairman and CEO of from different places and see things in tion official told Inside GNSS that they Arianespace,both stressed that the different ways. had received specific instructions to error should be viewed as a “design Whatever Dordain says, dependency “hold off” on any cooperative activities omission” and “not a problem of Rus- on Russian launchers remains a vulner- with Russian partners in the areas of sian workmanship or quality control.” ability for both Europe and the United aviation and space. Dubock added that the inquiry board States, in particular with respect to We met that official, by the way, at had had no issues with Russian coop- manned missions. a high-profile space-related “summit” eration during the investigation. Another Brussels insider acknowl- habitually attended by high-ranking None of this, of course, puts to bed edges, “Should the relationship with Russian officials and at which, this conspiracy theories about Russia sabo- Russia further deteriorate, Europe and year, not a one could be found. A paral- www.insidegnss.com NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014 InsideGNSS 29 BRUSSELS VIEW

lel “cool it” request seems to have been The good news is that, starting next applications; design and development circulated within certain EU institu- year, ESA should be capable of launch- of the next generation of systems; and, tions. Knowledgeable sources reported ing four Galileo satellites together importantly, security issues related to last April that at least one prominent onboard the new Ariane 5 launcher, GPS and Galileo. EU agency head had chosen to send making the completion of the Galileo The situation in the Ukraine and a subordinate in his place to convene operational constellation possible with- with Russian relations generally has with Russian counterparts at a Galileo/ out Russia. So, soon enough, the EU probably increased Galileo’s appeal to GLONASS meeting, apparently heed- won’t need her any more, right? the United States, which reportedly was ing guidance issued by the EU External Meanwhile, tension between the among the first non-European govern- Action Service (EEAS) in the wake Rus- United States and Russia, if it remains ments to request access to PRS. sia’s Crimea takeover. high, will encourage closer ties between In response to a question from the Insiders reported the EEAS had sent Russia and China, including more of the Spanish defense attaché at a July 22 around an e-mail encouraging EU staff kind of joint GNSS activities announced event sponsored by the Atlantic Coun- to play it cool when it came to coop- at the two countries’ first summit on cil, Gen. William L. Shelton, then- erative meetings with Russian counter- satellite navigation in Harbin, China, commander of U.S. Air Force Space parts. last June. Command, said, “Galileo represents an Although the precise wording of the One expert in Brussels says she opportunity for Europe and the United EEAS memo remains a highly guarded believes GLONASS is no longer a reliable States to cooperate.” secret, the gist, we understand, was that partner for GPS, as far as civilian appli- “In fact,” Shelton continued, “receiv- officials might still undertake unavoid- cations are concerned. And this means, ers are already being built that will able meetings but that their profiles she added, “Galileo has got a chance to receive the Galileo signal and the GPS should be kept low while doing so. tighten its links with GPS for both civil- signal and integrate both. So, in times of Eamonn Prendergast, EEAS press ian and military uses, becoming the GPS outages or perhaps localized GPS officer who handled EU-Russia matters first trustworthy partner of choice, fully jamming, maybe Galileo gives you dif- under outgoing foreign affairs repre- interoperable and compatible.” ferent geometries. . . . And I think you sentative and EC Vice-President Cath- will see us eventually go to receivers that erine Ashton, confirmed that memos Westward Ho! are both Galileo- and GPS-capable.” were circulated instructing EC officials The U.S. president’s National Space Pol- Earlier in the year, in testimony to on how to behave vis-à-vis their Rus- icy, updated in 2010, supports a closer the U.S. Senate Armed Services strategic sian partners. While he also declined alignment of Galileo and GPS. That pol- forces subcommittee last March, Doug to provide the specific wording of the icy now encourages international coop- Loverro, a deputy assistant secretary memos, the simple fact that instruc- eration between GPS and other GNSSs, of defense for space policy, expressed tions were sent out, in itself, means directing the United States to: “Engage the U.S. Defense Department’s interest that business is no longer being car- with foreign GNSS providers to encour- in using multiple GNSS systems, with ried out “as usual”. age compatibility and interoperability, Galileo and Japan’s QZSS system at the Despite U.S. and European space promote transparency in civil service top of the list. officials more recent efforts to downplay provision, and enable market access for “While it may be possible for an the ruckus a la mode Dordain, no one is US industry.” adversary to deny GPS signals through arguing that the situation has improved The United States, the EU, and its jamming, physical anti-satellite attacks, since last summer. So, at least several member states have been close partners or a cyber-attack on a ground control months’ worth of “icing” can be said to in the area of satellite navigation since network, it is much more difficult to have encrusted itself over the arena of 2004, when the parties signed a histor- eliminate multiple services at the same EU-Russia space cooperation. ic agreement establishing cooperation time,” ” said Loverro, a former director between GPS and Europe’s emerging of the GPS Joint Program Office, the Silver Lining? Galileo system. The agreement aims to forerunner to the U.S. Air Force’s GPS As far as the Galileo program is con- ensure that the two systems’s modern- Directorate. cerned, the only way to put satellites ized civil signals will be interoperable “Assuring U.S. warfighters have in orbit thus far has been with Soyuz at the user level, for the benefit of users access to the bulk of these systems is launchers from Kourou. So, much like around the world. a very powerful way to make sure no the matter of energy supply, Europe has The GPS-Galileo agreement estab- warfighter will ever have to face battle not had the option of immediately sus- lished four working groups for coopera- without the incredible benefit of space- pending cooperative activities with Rus- tion on: radio frequency compatibility enabled positioning, navigation, and sia in space, even if it wanted to. and interoperability; trade and civil timing (PNT),” Loverro continued. “To

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that end, we have begun negotiations pect, clandestine submarine missions through their respective governmental with like-minded PNT owner/opera- off the Swedish coast. procedures for continued ISS utilization tors to ensure the United States has that On November 5, the heads of the through at least 2020,” thus confirming access. We must likewise ensure our International Space Station (ISS) agen- that Russia probably still intends to pull equipment is capable of receiving these cies from Canada, Europe, Japan, Rus- out after that. different signals — just as is already sia and the United States issued a joint On the same day, the BBC reported happening in commercial applications.” statement — a rather understated affair on the situation in Ukraine “. . . [the] Another EU expert, however, is — without much substance and noth- fragile ceasefire with government forces not sure that Europe is ready to step ing of a binding nature, after a meeting could end at any time and return the through the opening door: “Is this in Paris. region to deadly conflict.” opportunity perceived by the European There is a lot in the statement about If it is just a pause and heavy fight- Member States and European Commis- technology development, benefits to ing, death, and destruction, East-West sion? I doubt it, as they are taken by all humanity, cooperation, and under- recriminations, and half-baked paranoia their economic and internal political standing. Some will translate that as, resume in force, then EU-Russian coop- problems.” “Whatever we were here to talk about, eration is space is sure to remain at least a we couldn’t agree on anything and our question mark, and a potentially continu- New Beginning or Just the End? meeting was a complete failure.” ing source of embarrassment for the EC. Months later, Russia continues to make Perhaps slightly more significantly, Even if this round of bad blood provocative gestures beyond its borders, the statement reads, “the agency heads should blow over, no one can now fail including high numbers of incursions reaffirmed their support for continued to recognize it for what it is: the razor’s by military planes into and near Euro- ISS operations.” It goes on, cheerfully: edge of ongoing European dependence pean and U.S. airspace and, some sus- “The ISS partner agencies are working on Russia, in space or anywhere else.

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