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RAND Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002

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RAND Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002 Summer 2002 Vol. 26, No. 2 Hitting Home What We’ve Learned Since 9/11 and What We Should Do About It GLOBAL PRIORITIES OVERSEAS DEPLOYMENTS HOMELAND SECURITY STATE AND LOCAL INITIATIVES Get the Big Picture Editor-in-Chief John Godges Assistant Editor Miriam Polon RAND Review News Editor Brett Grodeck covers the Editorial Editors Jerry Sollinger big issues with Paul Steinberg Laura Zakaras an eye for Proofreader Kelly Schwartz the important Art Director Ronald Miller details. Designer Eileen Delson La Russo Production Editor Denise Constantine Circulation Christine Troncoso Web Producer Amy Clark Editorial Board Dominic Brewer, Paul Davis, Jerrold Green, Bruce Hoffman, James Hosek, James Kahan, Iao Katagiri, Kevin McCarthy, Elizabeth McGlynn, C. Richard Neu, K. Jack Riley, Mary Vaiana RAND Board of Trustees Ronald L. Olson (chairman), Ann McLaughlin Korologos (vice chairman), Carl Bildt, Harold Brown, Frank C. Carlucci, Lovida H. Coleman, Jr., Robert Curvin, Pedro José Greer, Jr., Rita E. Hauser, Karen Elliott House, Jen-Hsun Huang, Paul G. Kaminski, Bruce Karatz, Lydia H. Kennard, Philip Lader, Arthur Levitt, Lloyd N. Morrisett, Amy B. Pascal, Patricia Salas Pineda, John Edward Porter, John Reed, Donald B. Rice, James E. Rohr, Jerry I. Speyer, James A. Thomson, James Q. Wilson RAND Review is published periodically by RAND, a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Opinions are those of the authors and do not reflect positions taken by RAND, its board, or its sponsors. LETTERS Send letters to: Editor, RAND Review, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, or email [email protected]. PERMISSIONS To use material published in RAND Review, visit www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html. COPIES For hard copies of RAND Review, call (877) 584-8642 (toll free) or (310) 451-7002 (out- side the United States); send a fax to (310) 451- 6915; or email [email protected]. REPORTS Most reports cited in these pages may be purchased. To place credit card orders, contact RAND at the phone numbers or email address listed immediately above. National Book Network (NBN) also carries selected RAND titles. Call NBN at (800) 462-6420. ABSTRACTS Selected abstracts of RAND docu- For previous editions and free online subscriptions, visit ments are available at www.rand.org/Abstracts. www.rand.org/publications/randreview. Message from the Editor Our Contribution he last time America defeated an adversary with global reach, research played an essential role. The research If research was crucial before, Tconducted here at RAND helped to unlock the political it is absolutely indispensable now. mysteries of the Soviet Politburo, to extrapolate details about the otherwise enigmatic Soviet economy, to compare the effective- ness of alternative U.S. military strategies, and to sharpen the per- formance of military operations. • The veterinary science curriculum in the United States needs America’s new war—against another adversary with global to place greater emphasis on the recognition and treatment of reach—will require an even greater analytical effort. Terrorism is animal diseases of exotic origin so that livestock and people an enemy much more inscrutable than the former Soviet Union. If can be defended against the terrorist use of biological research was crucial before, it is absolutely indispensable now. weapons. This issue of RAND Review offers a sampling of what we are • Local emergency responders need equipment that is more contributing on a wide range of fronts to help fight terrorism. In the durable and training that is more representative of extended year since Sept. 11, 2001, we have examined the dimensions of the response activities. terrorist threat—and the potential responses to it—in greater detail • Many hospitals and local public health departments should than ever before in our three decades of counterterrorism research. conduct terrorism drills more frequently and do a better job of James Thomson and Brian Jenkins set the stage for this integrating their preparedness plans with those of other local issue. Thomson describes four troubling global trends that we emergency response agencies. urgently need to understand better so that we can counteract ter- rorism better, while Jenkins offers a unique historical perspective Here are some of the questions that still cry out for answers: on the pioneering role of counterterrorism research at RAND. • What are the roots of anti-American violence? Stemming the In the 27 essays that follow, RAND authors offer specific pol- violence requires an honest examination of what drives others icy recommendations when they can. When they cannot, they out- to lash out against America. line the important questions that need to be answered before • How should victims of terrorism be compensated? Neither recommendations can be made. All of these essays represent private insurance, the tort system, private charities, nor govern- work done within the past year. ment aid alone is likely to provide a satisfactory solution. • What makes individuals and communities resilient in the face Here are some of our initial findings: of terrorism? Many local institutions could salve psychological • Global health care is vital to global security. America has an wounds. unprecedented opportunity to make a lasting difference in the world and to fight terrorism at the same time. Our work proceeds on additional fronts not covered in these • Social and economic development programs around the world pages. Research on demographic trends in Afghanistan, Pakistan, can inhibit terrorism only when they are adequately funded and Central Asia could inform U.S. military plans and international and properly implemented. development programs. Research on educational reform in the • The U.S. military needs to prepare for more frequent deploy- Middle East could yield promising strategies for diverting youth ments and more long-term deployments to far-flung regions. away from anger and frustration. It also needs to add new offensive capabilities to its arsenal. America needs research in all of these areas to help win the • It is often more effective to target the mid-level core of a ter- war against terrorism. We consider our counterterrorism research rorist organization than its top-level leaders. of the past year—and of the past 30 years—to be just a start. • Airport security at home should be rebuilt from the bottom up, with the federal government coordinating locally designed —John Godges solutions. WWW.RAND.ORG RAND REVIEW / SUMMER 2002 3 Summer 2002 Vol. 26, No. 2 6 Letter to the Editor GLOBAL PRIORITIES 6 News 20 Make World Health the New Marshall Plan • HIV trials: who’s in, who’s out By Robert E. Hunter, C. Ross Anthony, and Nicole Lurie • A Pakistani request for U.S., Chinese mediation • Russian corruption 23 The Role of Social and Economic • Diversity in California and America Development • Action against asthma By Kim Cragin and Peter Chalk • Why class size matters • Globalization winners and losers 26 Treat Europe as a Full Partner, and It Will Be Perspectives By David C. Gompert 10 Saving Grace: A Timely Warning from Easter Island 29 Beware of Cracks in the Coalition 12 Profits and Prejudice: By Jerrold D. Green Why We Regulate Some Drugs but Not Others 32 Anti-American Violence: An Agenda for Honest Thinking IN COMMEMORATION By C. Richard Neu OF SEPTEMBER 11, 2001 34 Control Biological Weapons, 14 Hitting Home: What We’ve Learned Since but Defend Biotechnology 9/11 and What We Should Do About It By John Parachini 15 We’re Here for the Duration OVERSEAS DEPLOYMENTS By James A. Thomson 36 Global Implications 18 30 Years and for the U.S. Air Force Counting By Edward R. Harshberger By Brian Michael Jenkins 38 A Future of Sustained Ground Operations On the Cover By Bruce R. Nardulli Global Priorities: Women wait to be received at a medical clinic in Kandahar, Afghanistan, on April 23. 40 Hard-Shelled, SOF-Centered: AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS/VICTOR R. CAIVANO The Synergy of Might and Mind Overseas Deployments: Light armored vehicles from the 15th By Gordon T. Lee Marine Expeditionary Unit head east toward Kandahar on Dec. 9, 2001. U.S. MARINE CORPS/SGT. JOSEPH R. CHENELLY 42 Four Lessons from Five Countries Homeland Security: Dairy cows amble through a pasture in Nash By Bruce Hoffman and Kim Cragin County, N.C., on July 12. AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS/BOB JORDAN State and Local Initiatives: SWAT team members join a Merced County Sheriff’s Department training exercise that included a mock terrorist takeover of a 737 airplane at Castle Airport in Atwater, Calif., 4 RAND REVIEW / SUMMER 2002 WWW.RAND.ORG HOMELAND SECURITY STATE AND LOCAL INITIATIVES 44 U.S. Air Force Roles Reach Beyond 64 Enlist the States in Protecting the Nation Securing the Skies By K. Jack Riley By Eric V. Larson 66 Give Emergency Workers Better Tools, 46 U.S. Army Finds Its Role at Home Training, Organization Up for Grabs By D. J. Peterson By Richard Brennan 68 Protecting Occupants of High-Rise 48 Beyond Sharing Intelligence, Buildings We Must Generate Knowledge By Rae W. Archibald, Jamison Jo Medby, Brian Rosen, By Jeffrey A. Isaacson and Kevin M. O’Connell and Jonathan Schachter 50 Protecting Critical 70 Defending Our Local Infrastructure Communities By Bruce Don and David Mussington By Tim Bonds 52 Airport Security from 72 The Rising Priority of the Bottom Up Local Public Health By Gerald Kauvar, Bernard Rostker, By Lois M. Davis and Janice C. Blanchard and Russell Shaver 74 Helping Each Other Cope 54 Bioterrorism: From Panic to Preparedness By Mark A. Schuster and Bradley D. Stein By Kenneth I. Shine 76 The Path of Greatest Resilience 56 Replace the Weak Links in the Food Chain By Terri Tanielian, Harold Pincus, Bradley Stein, By Peter Chalk and Audrey Burnam 58 Cleanse the Polluted Urban Seas By Russell W.
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