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Variability of a Summer Block in Medium-Range and Subseasonal Ensemble Forecasts and Investigation of Surface Impacts and Relevant Dynamical Features

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Variability of a Summer Block in Medium-Range and Subseasonal Ensemble Forecasts and Investigation of Surface Impacts and Relevant Dynamical Features Variability of a Summer Block in Medium-Range and Subseasonal Ensemble Forecasts and Investigation of Surface Impacts and Relevant Dynamical Features Zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines DOKTORS DER NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN von der Fakultät für Physik des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) genehmigte DISSERTATION von M.Sc. Lisa-Ann Quandt aus Villingen-Schwenningen Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 19. Mai 2017 Referent: Prof. Dr. Sarah C. Jones Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Olivia Martius “Experience is one thing you can’t get for nothing.” Oscar Wilde Abstract In summer 2010, an enormous high pressure system evolved over the European-Russian sector. It blocked the zonal flow for two months and created favorable conditions for two disastrous high impact weather events. The Russian population was afflicted with anomalously high surface temperatures and forest fires which led to a massive air pollution. Pakistan was inundated by deluge of water from strat- iform rainfall and heavy precipitation events. The mentioned responsible high pressure system belongs to a group of large-scale flow patterns which are known as atmospheric blockings. They are persistent, self-sustaining, and quasi-stationary. They decelerate the large-scale basic flow and split the jet stream into two branches. Their genesis and lysis, as well as their neighboring troughs upstream and down- stream (being the block’s flanks) are characterized by low predictability. Because of their relation to high impact weather, there is a special need in improving blocking predictability and the understanding of the relevant physical processes. In previous studies, blocking was investigated in detail, including the case in summer 2010. There were studies about forecast variability, about dynamics, impacts, or from a climatological point of view. However, these aspects were mostly investigated separately. In addition, several questions are still unan- swered, for example addressing a commonly accepted definition, blocking maintenance as well as the onset/decay of blockings, also in respect of whose predictability. In this study, two forecast ranges are considered and are compared against each other to show charac- teristics and benefits from both approaches for blocking prediction. For the medium range (with lead times of 10 days), a set of scenarios for the synoptic evolution during the onset, mature stage, and decay of the block are extracted from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble multi-model ensemble forecasts. These scenarios represent the key features of the forecast variability of the block and of the resulting surface impacts. Two heat indices and a fire index are computed to highlight the forecast vari- ability in societal impacts. The study is a proof of concept, showing how information about surface impacts can be derived from available operational ensemble forecasts in an effective manner, and point- ing to possible difficulties in this approach. Comparing the forecast for the heat wave’s impact on large spatial domains, and on a near-grid point scale, identifies challenges forecasters may face when predict- ing the development of a heat wave. Moreover, with the help of a correlation method, the dynamical processes are identified which were responsible for the forecast variability of the block during all three stages of the life-cycle. For the subseasonal range (with lead times of 45 days), development scenarios from Subseasonal-to-Seasonal multi-model ensemble reforecasts are extracted and compared. Only the onset and the decay phase of the block are considered for the investigation of blocking predictability in the subseasonal range. Although the block’s onset was highly predictable, the increase in temperature and the extension of the heat-affected area differed between the scenarios. During the mature stage of the block, the variability of its western flank had a considerable influence on the precipitation and surface heat distribution. Since the blocking remained after the analyzed decay in two of three scenarios, the predictability of the decay was low in this forecast. The heat wave ended independently from the block’s decay, as the surface temperature and the impact indices decreased in all scenarios. In scenarios without the decay of the block, the block was shifted so that the surface temperature anomaly and the geopotential height anomaly were not in phase anymore. In scenarios with the decay of the block, the upper-level controlling anomaly was missing to sustain the heat wave. For all phases of the block, its forecast variability was related to the performance of diabatic forcing over the North Atlantic. There were also other relevant dynamical processes (like the interaction with transient eddies) whose importance differed for the three phases of the block’s life-cycle. For the subseasonal range, the onset of the block was predictable. However, it was difficult to predict the exact date and position. The variability of the forecasts, which contained the decay phase of the block, was not related to the block’s decay itself, although there were remarkable differences in the representation of the shape and position of the blocking pattern. In all scenarios, the lysis of the block was forecast too early. Kurzfassung Im Sommer 2010 entwickelte sich über Europa und Russland ein gigantisches Hochdrucksystem. Es blockierte die zonale Strömung für zwei Monate und schuf günstige Bedingungen für zwei katastrophale Wettereignisse mit hohem Schadenspotential. Die russische Bevölkerung war von anormal hohen Ober- flächentemperaturen und Waldbränden, welche zu einer massiven Luftverschmutzung führten, betrof- fen. Pakistan wurde von Wassermassen aus stratiformen Regenfällen und Starkniederschlägen über- schwemmt. Das genannte verantwortliche Hochdrucksystem gehört zu der Gruppe der großskaligen Strömungsmuster, die als atmosphärische Blocks bekannt sind. Sie sind persistent, selbsterhaltend und quasi-stationär. Sie bremsen die großräumige Strömung aus und spalten den Strahlstrom in zwei Äste auf. Ihre Bildung und Auflösung sowie ihre benachbarten Tröge stromauf und -ab (welche die Flanken des Blocks sind) sind durch geringe Vorhersagbarkeit gekennzeichnet. Wegen ihrer Verbindung zu Wettereignissen mit hohem Schadenspotential gibt es einen besonderen Bedarf daran, die Vorhersag- barkeit von blockierenden Wetterlagen und das Verständnis der relevanten physikalischen Prozesse zu verbessern. In vorangegangenen Studien wurden Blocks, wie auch der Fall im Sommer 2010, tiefgehend untersucht. Es gab Studien über Vorhersagevariabilität, über Dynamik, Einfluss oder aus einer klimatologischen Per- spektive. Jedoch wurden diese Aspekte in den meisten Fällen getrennt voneinander untersucht. Außer- dem gibt es viele unbeantwortete Fragen über eine allgemein gültige Definition, die Aufrechterhaltung und den Beginn/Zerfall von Blocks, auch in Zusammenhang mit deren Vorhersagbarkeit. In dieser Studie werden zwei Vorhersagezeiträume betrachtet und verglichen, um zu zeigen, welche Vorteile beide Betrachtungen für die Vorhersage von Blocks bringen. Für die Mittelfrist (mit einer Vorhersagelängevon 10 Tagen) werden Szenarien von „THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble“- Multimodell-Ensemblevorhersagen extrahiert, welche die synoptische Entwicklung während der Entste- hungsphase, des Reifestadiums und des Zerfalls des Blocks zeigen. Diese Szenarien repräsentieren die Hauptmerkmale der Vorhersagevariabilität des Blocks und der sich ergebenen Einflüsse auf die Oberfläche. Zwei Hitzeindizes und ein Feuerindex werden berechnet, um die Vorhersagevariabilität in Auswirkungen, die von gesellschaftlichem Interesse sind, hervorzuheben. Die Studie ist ein Mach- barkeitsnachweis, in dem gezeigt wird, wie Informationen über bodennahe Wetterbedingungen von ver- fügbaren operationellen Ensemblevorhersagen effektiv gewonnen werden können. Dabei wird auch auf mögliche Schwierigkeiten bei diesem Vorgehen hingewiesen. Der Vergleich von Vorhersagen des Ein- flusses der Hitzewelle für große Gebiete und Gebiete nahe der Gitterpunktskala zeigt Herausforderun- gen auf, mit denen Meteorologen bei der Vorhersagen von Hitzewellen konfrontiert werden. Des Weit- eren werden in dieser Arbeit mit Hilfe einer Korrelationsmethode dynamische Prozesse identifiziert, die für die Vorhersagevariabilität des Blocks während der drei Entwicklungsphasen verantwortlich waren. Für den sub-saisonalen Vorhersagezeitraum (mit einer Vorhersagelänge von 45 Tagen) werden Entwick- lungsszenarien von „Subseasonal-to-Seasonal“-Multimodell-Ensemblevorhersagen extrahiert und ver- glichen. Es werden nur die Entstehungsphase und Zerfallsphase des Blocks betrachtet. Obwohl die Bildung des Block durch hohe Vorhersagbarkeit gekennzeichnet war, waren der Temper- aturanstieg und die Ausdehnung des Gebiets, welches von der Hitze betroffen war, in den Szenarien unterschiedlich. Während des Reifestadiums des Blocks hatte die Variabilität seiner Westflanke einen beachtlichen Einfluss auf die Niederschlags- und Hitzeverteilung. Da der Block in zwei von drei Szenar- ien nach dem analysierten Zerfall bestehen blieb, war die Vorhersagbarkeit des Zerfalls in dieser Vorher- sage gering. Die Hitzewelle endete unabhängig von dem Zerfall des Blocks, da die Oberflächentemper- aturen und die Werte der Indizes, welche die Hitzewirkung beschreiben, in allen Szenarien zurückging. In Szenarien ohne den Zerfall des Blocks verlagerte sich der Block, sodass die Oberflächentemperature- nanomalie und die Anomalie in der geopotentiellen Höhe nicht mehr in Phase waren. In Szenarien
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