Threats and Stressors to Sar and Ecosystems in Colorado and the Western U.S
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Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program PROJECT NUMBER 14-770 Threats and Stressors to Species at Risk and Ecological Systems, Practical Implications, and Management Strategies for Installations in Colorado and the Western U.S. Colorado State University 2017 THREATS AND STRESSORS TO SAR AND ECOSYSTEMS IN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN U.S. Acknowledgements This study was a joint effort by Colorado State University’s Colorado Natural Heritage Program (CNHP) and the Center for Ecological Management of Military Lands (CEMML). Funding was provided by the Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program. We are grateful to the DoD personnel who offered data, direction, and other support for this work. From the U.S. Air Force Academy: Brian Mihlbachler. From Fort Carson: Michelle Blake, Rick Clawges, Bryan Kleuver, Brian Goss, James Kulbeth, Jeff Linn, James McDermott, Roger Peyton, Richard Riddle, Dawn Rodriguez, Stephanie Smith-Froese, and Jason Zayatz from DPW, Conservation Branch; and Rick Doom, Joe Dekleva, and Maureen Polisky from the Integrated Training Area Management Program (Range Division). Suggested Citation: Grunau1, L., K. Decker1, M. Fink1, B. Kuhn1, R. Schorr1, J. Sovell1, R. Cook2, and D. Jones2. 2017. Threats and Stressors to Species at Risk and Ecological Systems, Practical Implications, and Management Strategies for Installations in Colorado and the Western U.S. Prepared by Colorado State University for the DoD Legacy Program. 1Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 2Center for Environmnetal Management - Military Lands, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 2 THREATS AND STRESSORS TO SAR AND ECOSYSTEMS IN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN U.S. Executive Summary This document describes work funded by the Department of Defense Legacy Resource Management Program, Project Number 14-770 (Purchase Request Number W81EWF-4125-0556) by Colorado State University, by and through its Colorado Natural Heritage Program and Center for Ecological Management of Military Lands. Background and Approach Species and ecological systems face continued pressure from a variety of inter-related threats, including expanding urbanization, habitat degradation, climate change, and others. As threats to biodiversity continue, the Department of Defense (DoD) could find its installations shouldering more conservation responsibility in the future. To better understand evolving natural resource management challenges, we conducted an analysis of current and potential future threats to three ecological systems and five species-at-risk (SAR) on Fort Carson, Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site (PCMS), and the U.S. Air Force Academy (USAFA or the Academy). The objectives of this study were to: 1. Analyze vulnerability of species and ecosystems to stressors at local and regional scales; 2. Identify potential species declines that could adversely affect future training operations; 3. Incorporate spatial data to evaluate possible distribution shifts and other species/ecosystems responses in relation to destabilizing events; 4. Develop recommendations to scale down the ecosystem management concept and help halt species declines both on and off installations; and 5. Document our process and lessons learned to facilitate similar analyses by other installations for their species and ecological systems. In consultation with installation personnel, we identified the following ecological systems and species as the focus of the study: • Pinyon-juniper woodlands o pinyon jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) o gray vireo (Vireo vicinor) • Shortgrass prairie o burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) • Cliffs and canyons (including outcrops and pine barrens) o golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) • Preble’s meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei) For each of these target species and ecosystems, we synthesized the most current information on distribution, status, ecological processes and life history. For ecological systems, we calculated potential impact from incompatible land uses, using existing GIS layers. We also evaluated existing 3 THREATS AND STRESSORS TO SAR AND ECOSYSTEMS IN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN U.S. models of potential distribution shift in response to climate change for both ecological systems and species, as well as potential impacts from military training. Overview of Results All three ecological systems evaluated have significant potential for adverse impacts from incompatible land uses, based on geographic proximity to mappable infrastructure. Across the distribution of pinyon-juniper, only 11% of this system is further than one mile from at least one mappable incompatible land use. That number is 7% for shortgrass prairie, and 8% for cliffs and canyons. Not surprisingly, the land use with the greatest acreage of potential impact is roads. This is an indication of potential for impact only. Not all vulnerable acres of these systems will be impacted equally, and some will not be impacted at all. However, at least two significant influences over the health of these systems were not included in our analysis due to lack of spatial data: invasive species and livestock grazing. Future vulnerability to climate change can only be projected at this point. Available information suggests that future climate conditions are likely to be very challenging for pinyon pine, but potentially beneficial for juniper species. If extent and health of pinyon pine deteriorate, impacts to pinyon jays could be significant. A variety of vulnerability assessment methods have been applied to shortgrass prairie, all with the same result: highly vulnerable. Cliffs and canyons are expected to experience climate effects similar to shortgrass prairie, though potentially with fewer impacts where they are sparsely vegetated. However, altered hydrology could affect rare canyon ferns. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change produced variable results for all of the species included in this report, with the exception of Preble’s meadow jumping mouse, which was ranked as extremely vulnerable. Pinyon-Juniper We focused on the distribution of two-needle pinyon (Pinus edulis) and used the term “pinyon- juniper” to refer to both pinyon-juniper woodlands and pinyon-juniper savannas. The primary processes that influence the formation and persistence of pinyon-juniper include climate, grazing, fires, tree harvest, and insect-pathogen outbreaks (West 1999a; Eager 1999). The manifestations of this ecological system are highly variable across its range. Romme et al. (2009) distinguish three types of pinyon-juniper vegetation: persistent woodlands (trees with sparse understory), pinyon- juniper savannas (on gentle topography with well-developed grass/forb cover, trees in low to moderate densities, minor shrub component), and wooded shrublands (well-developed shrub component, variable grass/forb and tree density). All types are found at Fort Carson and PCMS. In Colorado, pinyon-juniper supports 41 Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) (CPW 2015). Of Colorado SGCN inhabiting pinyon-juniper, this habitat type is the primary, or a primary habitat for 28 species. Of these, five have been named by DoD Partners in Flight (PIF) as Mission- Sensitive Priority Bird Species: pinyon jay, gray vireo, Lewis’s woodpecker, northern goshawk, and olive-sided flycatcher. 4 THREATS AND STRESSORS TO SAR AND ECOSYSTEMS IN COLORADO AND THE WESTERN U.S. Land uses that may be incompatible with this system and the wildlife who rely on it are pervasive across the landscape, though many of these uses are comparatively low-density and dispersed. Only 11% of the land cover mapped as pinyon-juniper forests and woodlands occur further than one mile away from at least one mappable threat. That number is a conservative (worst-case) scenario since it represents land uses within a mile of pinyon-juniper, and not all impacts may extend over that distance. However, it does not reflect stresses from other activities for which we did not have spatial data, including invasive species, livestock grazing, recreation, and solar energy development. With regard to climate change, future precipitation and temperature patterns are projected to be less favorable for pinyon, enabling juniper to become more dominant. Pinyon-juniper woodlands are projected to experience summer temperatures warmer than the current temperature range in more than one third of its current distribution in Colorado. Projected winter precipitation levels are generally within the current range, but spring and summer precipitation for 9-16% of the current distribution are projected to be lower than the driest end of the current range. The pinyon-juniper system has large ecological amplitude so warmer conditions may allow expansion, as long as there are periodic cooler, wetter years for recruitment. The availability of canopy microsites to promote establishment and survival of seedlings may become increasingly important as conditions become drier (Redmond and Barger 2013). Increased drought may drive increased fires and insect outbreaks, from which these woodlands would be slow to recover. Under hotter and drier conditions, the ability of landscapes at Fort Carson and PCMS to support pinyon pine is predicted to decrease. Much of Fort Carson is predicted to become more suitable for one-seed juniper, while to the southeast, much of the area that currently supports juniper would no longer be suitable for that species. This agrees with other regional projections that suggest that some areas of southeast Colorado may eventually