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Home , Demography of London, Walford

Then and now: micro-scale population change in parts of , 1901-11 and 2001-11

Nigel Walford Centre for Earth and Environmental Science Research School of Geography, Geology and the Environment

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Outline

• Research aim and context • Data sources and methods • Preliminary results • Conclusions

• Research initiated under a Senior Research Fellowship funded by The British Academy/Leverhulme Trust

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Research Aim • Aim – Explore the practicalities of capturing household and individual level Population Census Data from censuses carried out early in 20th century and linking these to contemporary 21st census geographies and statistics • Indicative research question – What are the similarities and differences in the small area social geography and demography of London and Middlesex in the early 20th and 21st centuries? – Are the areas that were relatively deprived then also less well off now? • Why London – Capital city – Link with Booth Poverty maps for end of 19th century

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Selection of

• Boroughs selected with reference to % population change 1901-11 • Numbers of households/persons 15.00 1911 London County Boroughs 50.00 10.00 40.00

5.00 30.00

0.00 20.00

-5.00 10.00 -10.00

0.00

-15.00

Percentage populationchange Percentage -10.00

-20.00

Poplar MB Poplar

Fulham MB

Holborn MB

Chelsea Chelsea MB MB

Islington MB

Finsbury Finsbury MB DeptfordMB

Lambeth MB MB Hackney

Battersea MB WoolwichMB

LewishamMB

Difference household in & populatondensity

Southwark MB

Greenwich MB MB Shoreditch

Kensington Kensington MB

Paddington MB

HampsteadMB St. Pancras Pancras St. MB

Camberwell MB -20.00

Wandsworth MB WestminsterMB

-25.00 MB

HammersmithMB

City London ofCity CC

Bethnal Bethnal GreenMB

St. Marylebone St. MB Newington Stoke MB -30.00 -30.00 Pop%Chg 1901-11 HsDensChg 1901-11 PerDensChg 1901-11

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Selection of Middlesex Districts

180.00 1911 Middlesex County Districts 14.00

160.00 12.00

140.00 10.00

120.00 8.00

100.00 6.00

80.00 4.00

60.00 2.00

40.00 0.00

Percentage Percentage populationchange 20.00 -2.00

0.00 -4.00

Staines UD Staines RD Staines

Hendon RD

Hanwell UD

Feltham UD

ChiswickUD

Uxbridge RD

HamptonUD

Brentford UD

Acton UD/MB Acton

Kingsbury Kingsbury UD

Greenford UD

Ealing UD/MB Difference household in and populationdensity

-20.00 MB/UD Enfield -6.00

Teddington UD

Hendon Hendon UD/MB WealdstoneUD

Southall UD/MB

Hornsey UD/MB MB/UD Finchley

Uxbridge MB/UD Uxbridge

Friern Barnet Barnet Friern UD

Wembley UD/MB

Willesden UD/MB

South RD MimmsSouth

EdmontonUD/MB Southgate MB/UD

HamptonWickUD

Tottenham UD/MB

TwickenhamMB/UD

Wood GreenWood UD/MB

Harrow on the Hill the Harrow Hill on UD

Ruislip Northwood Northwood UD

Sunbury on Sunbury ThamesUD

Hayes and Harlington Hayes UD

Heston and and Heston Isleworth UD/MB Yiewsley and WestDrayton UD HsDensChg 1901-11 PerDensChg 1901-11 Pop%Chg 1901-11

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Selected Boroughs/Districts

Hs Hs Popn. Popn. % Popn. Diff. Hs Diff. Per Units1901 Units1911 1901 1911 Chg. dens. dens. MB 5339 3995 26923 19657 -25.17 -1.99 -10.76 MB 24615 25040 110398 109496 1.73 0.27 -0.58 MB 25810 28462 112239 121521 10.28 1.16 4.06 London County 1019048 1033861 4536267 4521685 0.54 -0.71 -3.99 Hampton Wick UB 567 551 2606 2417 -2.82 -0.01 -0.14 Hayes UD 587 887 2594 4261 51.11 0.61 0.50 Wembley UD/MB 905 2434 4519 10696 168.95 0.34 1.35 Middlesex 166007 249334 782066 1087465 55.13 0.83 3.30

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Borough of Hammersmith • Paper focuses on 1911 Census data for Hammersmith Borough in the former London County • Other London Boroughs and Middlesex districts in progress

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Data Sources

• 20th century – 1911, 1901 and potentially earlier Population Census records – Ordnance Survey Historical topographic mapping (scanned images) • 21st century – Ordnance Survey Master Map (MM2) topographic map layers – Ordnance Survey Master Map Address Layer (MMAL) – 2001 and 2011 Census Output Area boundaries and aggregate data • 19th century – ‘Booth’ 1898/9 maps of economic conditions (wealth/poverty)

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 1911 Census Schedule

• Example of census schedule illustrating damage curated by The National Archives

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 1911 Census Transcript

• Transcribed census records • Attribute data limited to name, relationship in household, sex, age, birth year, occupation and birthplace. • Also available: address, enumeration district and number of rooms

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Historical and Modern OS Maps

• Historical topographic maps scanned and georeferenced • MM2 buildings and address points on land not developed in 1901 and 1911 • Former houses demolished and redeveloped as larger buildings • Many building footprints almost identical

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Matching/Geocoding

• 1: match of addresses from transcribed 1901 and 1911 Population Census records and MM2 data; geocode joined spatial and attribute data; and create point features for addresses. • 2: examine visualisation of geocoded census addresses alongside MM2 addresses; identify and correct anomalies (e. g. through road names changes). • 3: identify non-geocoded addresses from 1 & 2 and locate on historic map images; manually digitise new points and transfer addresses from 1901 and 1911 census data to additional points. • 4: create a unified file of matched spatial and census data for each set of households and individuals in 1901 and 1911; aggregate attribute data to address, household levels, 1901/1911 enumeration districts, streets, 2001/11 Output Areas, etc.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Examples

Identify non- geocoded addresses, find them on historic map images and Jeddo Road (correct on map and manually in MM2) incorrectly transcribed digitise new as Jedds Road (error in census points data > non-match)

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Examples

Rayleigh Road became Rayleigh Grove (road name changed > non-match)

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Address Points Hammersmith

Majority of 1901 addresses also present in 1911

5,944 (26%) of 1911 census addresses digitised on screen RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Preliminary Results

• Some initial tabulated results on household size, age structure and length of marriage for Hammersmith presented at International Population Geography conference in June 2013; and some of place of birth migration earlier in 2014. • Following slides examine geographical patterns displayed by two age groups (16-19 and 65+) in 1901/1911, and 2001/2011.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Some overlap, but also some differences in areas with high or low percentages of 16-19 age group in 1901/1911, and in 2001/2011.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Rather less overlap in areas with high or low percentages of 65+ age group in 1901/1911, and in 2001/2011.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Mixed pattern, but some areas had high or low increases/decreases in percentages of 16-19 or 65+ age group in 1901/1911 and in 2001/2011.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Local Moran’s I analysis reveals some spatial clustering of percentage differences in both age groups, but a swathe of OAs where results are non-significant.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Conclusions and Future Work

• Data record linkage feasible, but complexities remain • Expected and unexpected difficulties of dealing with historic records • Linkage between historic and modern datasets offers exciting new analytical possibilities • Analysis of other social and demographic variables • Linkage to Booth poverty maps in London County Boroughs

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014 Acknowledgments

• Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census: Aggregate data (England and Wales) [computer file]. UK Data Service Census Support. Downloaded from: http://infuse.mimas.ac.uk . This data is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence [http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government- licence/version/2]. Office for National Statistics, 2011 Census: Aggregate data (England and Wales) [computer file]. UK Data Service Census Support. Downloaded from: http://infuse.mimas.ac.uk . This data is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence [http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government- licence/version/2]. • Office for National Statistics, 2001 Census: Aggregate data (England and Wales) [computer file]. UK Data Service Census Support. Downloaded from: http://infuse.mimas.ac.uk . This data is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence [http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government- licence/version/2]. • This work is based on data provided through EDINA UKBORDERS with the support of the ESRC and JISC and uses boundary material which is copyright of the Crown. It also uses data provided under licence by the Ordnance Survey.

RGS-IBG International Conference – 27-29 August 2014