PRIF Report 3/2018 DEALING WITH CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUTERTE CHANGING COURSE PETER KREUZER // ImprInt LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT HESSISCHE STIFTUNG FRIEDENS- UND KONFLIKTFORSCHUNG (HSFK) PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FRANKFURT (PRIF) Cover: Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomes Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte before the Leaders’ Roundtable Summit of the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) for International Cooperation at Yanqi Lake; © picture alliance / Photoshot. Text license: Creative Commons CC-BY-ND (Attribution/NoDerivatives/4.0 International). The images used are subject to their own licenses. Correspondence to: Peace Research Institute Frankfurt Baseler Straße 27–31 D-60329 Frankfurt am Main Telephone: +49 69 95 91 04-0 E-Mail:
[email protected] https://www.prif.org ISBN: 978-3-946459-31-6 Summary Recapitulating the developments of the past years of escalation and the surprisingly successful de-escalation of Sino-Philippine relations since mid-2016, this report ponders the broader question of how to deal prudently with an assertive China in the South China Sea. From 2011 to 2016 the multilateral conflict over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea intensified dramatically. At its core are China and the Philippines, since the latter took the unprecedented step of bringing a case before the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) against China in early 2013, against the express desire of its opponent. The aftermath of this step was that bilateral relations chilled to an all-time-low, with China retali- ating by escalating its activity in the disputed areas: small low-tide elevations were transformed into huge artificial islands and equipped with fortified harbors and airports that massively extend the op- erational capacity of the Chinese Navy and Airforce.