Assessment of vulnerability to SLR: case study , Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA)

Assessment of socioeconomic vulnerability to SLR: Case study Damietta, Egypt

Mohamed A. Abdrabo and Mahmoud H. Hassaan University of , Egypt

1 Deltas at the time of change conference, Rotterdam September 29 – 1 October 2010

Objective

• This study intends to assess and quantify vulnerability to sea level rise in in Damietta governorate, through which the paper aims at identifying most vulnerable locality of the study area.

2 General situation of the study site

3

Methodology

1. Establish baseline conditions in the study area 2. Sea Level Rise estimation 3. Review SLR impacts 4. Conduct population projection up to 2050 5. Carryout land use/land cover projection 6. Identify SLR impacts in the study area 7. Develop a vulnerability index for each locality in the study area

4 1. Establish baseline conditions: Study area situation

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E 32°0'0"E µ Mediterranean Sea 31°30'0"N 31°30'0"N

31°20'0"N Damietta Governorate 31°20'0"N

El-Dakahlyia Governorate

Situation of the study area Study area border 31°10'0"N 31°10'0"N Wetlands

Kilometers 02 4 8 12 16

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E 32°0'0"E 5

Land use / land cover in the area

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E 32°0'0"E µ

Mediterranean Sea 31°30'0"N 31°30'0"N

Land use/Land cover 31°20'0"N 31°20'0"N Fish Farm

Perennial Lake Sabkhah Salt Flat cultivated undeveloped land urban Kilometers 01.5 3 6 9 12

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E 32°0'0"E 6 Study area: Elevations

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2. Estimating Sea Level Rise in the study area

• SLR scenario: Global models predict sea levels rising from about 10 to 30 cm by 2050 and 18 to 59 cm by the year 2100 • Land subsidence : A study by Delft Hydraulics and Coastal Research Institute CoRI revealed that the annual subsidence rate at Gamasa and areas ranges between 2.5 and 3.0 mm, respectively. • Overall for the coastal area ranges between 0.25 and 0.45 cm by 2050 8 Sea level rise impacts

Sea Level Rise

Direct Impacts Increasing Inundation by sea Groundwater and groundwater water soil salinisation levels

Indirect Impacts Buildings Public health make roads and foundation problems paths unstable damage

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4. Demographic projections

10 5. Land use/land cover projection

• This projection is made assuming two scenarios: 1. Dispersed patterns of development (uniform rates of expansion in all built-up areas) 2. Concentrated patterns of development (expansion of built-up area will be concentrated in urban centres)

This means overall four scenarios (2 population growth scenarios & 2 land use/land cover scenarios)

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Land use/land cover projection

Dispersed pattern of development Concentrated patterns of development

Year Built-up area Agricultural land Built-up area Agricultural land (Km2) (Km2) (Km2) (Km2)

2050 48.13 320.38 77.28 278.55

2100 81.62 289.9 29.82 208.94

12 6. Identify SLR impacts: Inundation and groundwater

(1.25) (-10) (1.5) (2) (1.75) (1.75) (-5) (1.5) (0) (-1) (1.25) (1.5) (2) (1) (1.75) (1.5) (1.75) (2) (2) (2) (2) (1.25) (1.75)

(1.25) (1) (1.5) (1.75) (1.5) (1.25) (1) (2) (1) (1) (1.5) (1) (1.25) (1) (1.5)

(1.75) (2) (1) (1.25) (1.25) (1.5) (1) (1 .5 ) (2)

(1)

(2) (1.25) (1.5) (1.75) (1.75)

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Impacts of groundwater in the study area µ

Area affected by high level of ground water Area with no or limited effects Kilometers wetlands 02 4 8

14 7. Develop vulnerability index

Composite vulnerability index: • affected area in each locality, • projected population, • built-up area in each locality by 2050; and • Human development index The index was calculated according an equal weighing scheme : • Vulnerability index= (0.25* affected area index) + (0.25* built-up area index) + (0.25 * projected population size) + (0.25 *( 1 - HDI) )

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HDI in various localities

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E µ 31°30'0"N 31°30'0"N

Mediterranean Sea

Human Development Index Less than 0.685 31°20'0"N 31°20'0"N 0.686 - 0.700 0.701 - 0.715 0.716 - 0.730 More than 0.730 Wetlands Kilometers 01.5 3 6 9 12

31°30'0"E 31°40'0"E 31°50'0"E 16 Vulnerability index: moderate growth and dispersed development µ

Vulnerability index moderate population growth dispersed development 0.100392 - 0.168723 0.168724 - 0.287260 0.287261 - 0.401113 Kilometers 0.401114 - 0.809224 02 4 8

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Vulnerability index: moderate growth and concentrated development µ

Vulnerability index moderate population growth concentrtaed development 0.087769 - 0.157240 0.157241 - 0.294966 0.294967 - 0.396838 Kilometers 0.396839 - 0.809224 02 4 8

18 Vulnerability index: rapid growth and dispersed development µ

Vulnerability index rapid population growth dispersed development 0.080407 - 0.113123 0.113124 - 0.160844 0.160845 - 0.335624 Kilometers 0.335625 - 0.628687 02 4 8

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Vulnerability index: moderate growth and concentrated development µ

Vulnerability index rapid population growth concentrated development 0.014036 - 0.110140 0.110141 - 0.294755 0.294756 - 0.429967 Kilometers 0.429968 - 0.982706 02 4 8

20 Next steps

• Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability at each locality through field surveys

• Economic valuation of SLR impacts

• Economic assessment of potential adaptation options

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Assessment of vulnerability to SLR: case study Damietta, Egypt Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA)

Thank you

22 Deltas at the time of change conference, Rotterdam September 29 – 1 October 2010