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Which Way Latin America? United Nations University Press is the publishing arm of the United Nations University. UNU Press publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals on the issues facing the United Nations and its peoples and member states, with particular emphasis upon international, regional and transboundary policies. The United Nations University was established as a subsidiary organ of the United Nations by General Assembly resolution 2951 (XXVII) of 11 December 1972. It functions as an international community of scholars engaged in research, postgraduate training, and the dissemination of knowledge to address the pressing global problems of human survival, development and welfare that are the concern of the United Nations and its agencies. Its activities are devoted to advancing knowledge for human security and development and are focused on issues of peace and governance and environment and sustainable development. The Univer- sity operates through a worldwide network of research and training centres and programmes, and its planning and coordinating centre in Tokyo. Which way Latin America? The Centre for International Governance Innovation is an independent, non-partisan think-tank that addresses international governance chal- lenges. Led by a group of experienced practitioners and distinguished academics, CIGI supports research, forms networks, advances policy debate, builds capacity and generates ideas for multilateral governance improvements. Conducting an active agenda of research, events and publications, CIGI’s interdisciplinary work includes collaboration with policy, business and academic communities around the world. CIGI was founded in 2002 by Jim Balsillie, co-CEO of RIM (Research In Motion). Its work is organized in six broad programme areas: shifting global order; environment and resources; health and social governance; international economic governance; international law, institutions and diplomacy; and global and human security. For more information please visit: www.cigionline.org WhichwayLatinAmerica? Hemispheric politics meets globalization Edited by Andrew F. Cooper and Jorge Heine United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS 6 United Nations University, 2009 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not nec- essarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-5467-1212 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] general enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office at the United Nations, New York 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Maria Sese-Paul Cover art by Jose´ Basso, Tres casas con reflejo amarillo, [email protected], www.josebasso.com Printed in Hong Kong ISBN 978-92-808-1172-8 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Which way Latin America? : hemispheric politics meets globalization / edited by Andrew F. Cooper and Jorge Heine. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-9280811728 (pbk.) 1. Latin America—Politics and government—1980– 2. Globalization—Latin America. I. Cooper, Andrew Fenton, 1950– II. Heine, Jorge. JL960.W45 2009 327.8—dc22 2009011635 Endorsements ‘‘This is an ambitious and important volume. It brings together a group of the hemisphere’s best analysts and thinkers to explain how profoundly Latin America has changed in recent years, and what those changes mean for the people and politics of the region and for its relations with the US and the rest of the world.’’ Peter Hakim, President of Inter-American Dialogue ‘‘This excellent collection focuses on the dynamic interaction between Latin America and a fast-changing global system. Chapters expertly an- alyze crucial dimensions of this interaction, including democracy and the ‘rise of the left’, energy competition and resource nationalism, relations with China and India, the fraying of the Inter-American System, and such pivotal cases as Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil. Contributors un- pack both the impact of the world in and on the region, and the ever more complex and diversified relationship between the region and the world.’’ Andrew Hurrell, Montague Burton Professor of International Relations, Balliol College, Oxford University ‘‘In a book that is timely, comprehensive, and insightful, Cooper, Heine, and their colleagues sharpen the ‘big picture’ of international relations in the Americas while examining key countries, large and small, in Latin America and the Caribbean. The authors present their thoughtful and v vi ENDORSEMENTS informative analysis on salient topics, such as multilateral institutions, China and India, energy, Cha´vez, democracy and partisanship, and point the way to the future.’’ Jorge I. Domı´nguez, Antonio Madero Professor of Mexican and Latin American Politics and Economics, Harvard University ‘‘Which Way Latin America? offers a fresh perspective on an old ques- tion that has yielded, up to now, tired answers. The authors survey the new landscape of more inclusive democracies and more independent for- eign policies. The Obama Administration ought to read this to chart a new approach to the region.’’ Robert Pastor, Professor of International Relations, American University and Former National Security Advisor for Latin America Contents Endorsements . ............................. v Tablesandfigures..................................................... ix Contributors........................................................... xi Acknowledgements . ............................. xvii Abbreviations ......................................................... xix Foreword .............................................................. xxii Abraham F. Lowenthal Introduction – The effect of national and global forces on the Americas:Tsunami,tornadoorjusta mildbreeze?............. 1 Andrew F. Cooper and Jorge Heine Part I: The Americas at a crossroads ................................ 25 1 Navigating in a fog: Metanarrative in the Americas today . 27 Laurence Whitehead 2 Managing disarray: The search for a new consensus . 50 Michael Shifter 3 Theemergenceofa newleft...................................... 64 Jorge G. Castan˜edaandMarcoA. Morales viii CONTENTS Part II: The new economic challenges ............................... 79 4 Competingforenergy ............................................ 81 Sidney Weintraub and Annette Hester 5 CopingwithChina ................................................ 100 Nicola Phillips 6 PlayingtheIndiacard ............................................ 122 Jorge Heine 7 RepositioningtheCommonwealthCaribbean................... 140 Anthony J. Payne Part III: A fresh multilateral impetus ................................ 157 8 RenewingtheOAS ............................................... 159 Andrew F. Cooper 9 Dealingwiththreatstodemocracy............................... 182 Dexter S. Boniface 10 Monitoringelections.............................................. 202 Sharon F. Lean Part IV: Pivotal case studies ......................................... 219 11 The Cha´vezeffect................................................. 221 Thomas Legler 12 Theimpactofthe2006Mexicanelections....................... 243 Arturo Santa-Cruz 13 Quo vadis, Brazil? ................................................ 262 Luiz Pedone 14 TheHaitianimbroglio ............................................ 281 Yasmine Shamsie Part V: Afterword .................................................... 301 15 Strong winds of change: New politics and new connections . 303 Andrew F. Cooper and Jorge Heine Index .................................................................. 310 Tables and figures Tables 4.1 Oil and natural gas production, consumption and trade, Westernhemisphere,2006..................................... 85 4.2 Proven reserves of oil and natural gas in Western hemisphere,end2006.......................................... 86 5.1 Sino-Latin American trade: Exports to and imports from China as percentage of total, selected countries, 1995 and 2005 ............................................................. 104 5.2 Composition of Chinese trade with ASEAN and LAIA countries, 2004, percentage shares of trade flows of each group of products . ....................................... 107 5.3 Cost of manufacturing a dress shirt for the US market, selected countries . ....................................... 109 5.4 Trade dependence on the United States, selected countries, 2005 ............................................................. 112 5.5 US import-value market share, selected countries, 1981, 1991and2001 .................................................. 114 5.6 Remittances from the United States, selected countries, 2004 ............................................................. 116 6.1 Bilateral trade between Chile and India (US$ million) . 133 6.2 Chile-India trade, 1991–2007 (US$) . ......................... 133 13.1 Minimum salary and pro-Lula vote in Brazil’s 2006 presidential election, first round . ......................... 273 ix x TABLES AND FIGURES Figures 3.1 Latin American voter identification by ideological position, 1990–2001 . ................................................ 70 3.2 Latin American voter identification by ideological position, 2001–2005 . ...............................................
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