nd Republic of 2 IPC analysis round – Summary of findings April 2013 Acute Food Insecurity Current Situation Overview Volatile international prices, limited sources of income, high vulnerability and low coping capacity of households, and internal conflicts are the major causes of emergency conditions High acute malnutrition due in particular to poor food utilization, water and sanitation and health issues Key Outcomes The 2nd IPC analysis of current acute food insecurity situation for April 2013 covered 13 Governorates, of which 7 have been classified in phase 3 Crisis and 6 have been classified in phase 4 Emergency. The other Areas affected: Governorates of Al 7 Governorates could not be analyzed due to lack of information. Bayda, Abyan, Hodeidah, Hajja, Lahj and Al Daleh are the worst affected Compared to the previous analysis of August 2012, there has been a slight improvement in civil security in western Governorates, but conflicts are ongoing in the southern and northern parts of the country. Where and classified in Emergency phase 4 the situation has improved, this has allowed a better access of households to credit to purchase food, while Taiz, Ibb, Amran, Sana’a (rural), resulting in an overall slight improvement in the food consumption. But this indebtedness in a context of , and Raymah are in Crisis little income opportunities and high vulnerability of households could lead to an aggravation of food phase 3. insecurity in the next months. Overall, food insecurity remains very high. Food consumption: In average for The analysis highlights an improvement in (shifted from Phase 4 Emergency to phase 3 the 13 Governorates, 21% of the Crisis) as food consumption improved due to increased use of credit. In Aden Governorate instead the population have a poor food situation deteriorated (shifted from Phase 2 Stressed to phase 3 Crisis), due to the effect of civil insecurity consumption score and 28% and political instability which have limited opportunities for households to expand or find alternative borderline (WFP FSMS March 2013, livelihoods options, and led to a deterioration of the nutritional status, in particular because of dysfunctional infrastructures and subsequent poor water and sanitation conditions. Data collected in December 2012) The most recent nutrition data for Yemen is from UNICEF SMART Survey led in 2012, showing that the Nutrition: Global Acute Malnutrition acute malnutrition in most governorates was already at alarming level. Since then the food consumption ranged from 6% in Al Bayda to 28% in scores have slightly improved according to WFP FSMS March 2013 (Data collected in December 2012), but it Hodeidah (WFP CFSS 2012 and is important to note that food consumption is not the only driver of current malnutrition in Yemen. UNICEF's SMART nutrition survey Abysmal water and environmental sanitations, poor food utilization, and very poor health facilities, are 2012) major causes of malnutrition. Civil Insecurity, IDPs and Refugees: Limited sources of income and declining purchasing power, high vulnerability and low coping capacity of 349,000 IDPs mainly in the North, households, poor rainfall, low agricultural production and volatile international prices (as Yemen is more 180,000 returnees mainly in the than 90% dependent on commercial imports for staple food), poor food utilization and health and sanitation conditions, and internal conflicts are the major causes of emergency food insecurity conditions South, high number of migrants along the western half and the Southern part of Yemen. arrivals (107,000 in 2012, over 30,000 Overall acute food insecurity is very high in the 13 analyzed Governorates and the situation is fragile. It is Keysince for beginning map of the year), mainly a combination of structural conditions and protracting crisis, resulting in high vulnerability and low from Ethiopia and Somalia (OCHA coping capacity. In this context any new shock could lead to a further deterioration of food insecurity. April 2013)Lakes and Waterways Border Territory

ProvinceKEY FOR MAP Collectivity

Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Not Analyzed Area with inadequate evidence Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Famine Area would likely be at least 1 phase  worse without the effects of humanitarian assistance

Looking Back: ! previous IPC analysis, August 2012

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IPC National Analysis Partners and Supporting Organizations

Key findings and issues

The food security situation in Yemen is unstable. The 2nd IPC analysis of current acute food insecurity situation for April 2013 covered 13 Governorates, of which 7 have been classified in phase 3 Crisis and 6 have been classified in phase 4 Emergency. According to the Food consumption score equivalence with IPC phases, around 8 million people are classifying in IPC phases 3 and 4. Compared to the previous analysis of August 2012, there has been a slight improvement in civil security in the western Governorates, although the situation remains unstable. In these Governorates, households have been able to access credit for food purchase, which resulted in a slight improvement in food consumption. Overall, 21% of the population have a poor food consumption score and 28% have a borderline FCS according to the WFP FSMS of March 2013 (data collected in Dec. 2012), compared with 31% poor and 23% borderline FCS in December 2012. Nonetheless, this also results in a level of indebtedness which in a context of low income, little income opportunities and high vulnerability of households could lead to an aggravation of food insecurity in the coming months. In the Southern and Northern parts of Yemen, conflicts are ongoing. According to OCHA, about 349,000 IDPs remain in Yemen and are primarily in the northern parts of the country. These people were displaced due to the ongoing conflict and cannot return home due to the threat of landmines, massive destruction to infrastructure and lack of access to basic services. About 180,000 returnees are registered, mostly in the southern parts of the country, having returned home after the 2012 conflict. In addition, refugees, asylum seekers and migrants arrivals in Yemen have doubled from 53,000 in 2010 to 107,000 in 2012. The number of new arrivals in 2013 has started to decline for the first time since the 2011 famine, but was still of over 30,000 between January and April 2013, mainly from Ethiopia and Somalia. 25,000 migrants or asylum seekers from Ethiopia and Somalia are in without assistance. Two Governorates have changed phase compared to the previous analysis of August 2012. Raymah Governorate shifted from Phase 4 Emergency to phase 3 Crisis reflecting a better food consumption mainly due to increased use of credit, and considering nutrition and livelihood data. Aden Governorate instead shifted from Phase 2 Stressed to phase 3 Crisis, due to the effect of civil insecurity and political instability which have limited opportunities for households to expand or find alternative livelihoods options, and led to a deterioration of the nutritional status, in particular because of dysfunctional infrastructures and subsequent poor water and sanitation conditions. While food is generally available on the markets, the main problem of food insecurity is financial access to food. A very high proportion of food is imported in Yemen and most Yemenis purchase 75-95 % of their food from the market. Most poor households obtain their income from casual labor to purchase food. The terms of trade between casual labor and wheat flour, the m a i n staple food in the country, have been stable between February and April, according to WFP’s Yemen Monthly Market Watch Report of April 2013. After a continuous increase since 2008, driven by international prices and then due to internal conflicts, food prices have slightly decreased in 2012 compared to the peak of 2011, but remain high. Overall income opportunities and income remain low. The urban poor who have limited sources of income are also suffering for their basic needs due to poor purchasing power. The overall Coping Strategies Index, an indicator of household food security, has improved by 6% compared with 2012. Significant differences are noted among the 13 governorates. For instance the CSI has worsened significantly in Hodeidah and Lahj and deteriorated slightly in Al Mahweet. Conversely, the CSI has improved considerably in Al Bayda, Amran, Hajja and Sana’a, and slightly improved in Ad Daleh, Ibb and Rayma. This is due as well to increased access to credit to purchase food, resulting as mentioned in indebtedness. The most recent nutrition data for Yemen is from the UNICEF SMART Survey led in 2012, showing that the acute malnutrition in most governorates was already at alarming level at the time, especially in Aden, Lahj, Abyan and Hodeidah. Since then the food consumption scores have slightly improved, but malnutrition in Yemen seems to be caused not only by food consumption but by very poor health facilities, and abysmal water and environmental sanitations leading to deteriorated food utilization. In addition, chronic malnutrition is also very high. The food security outlook for the first half of 2013 is anticipated to be slightly worse than for 2012. Further increases in staple prices are anticipated as the lean season advances (March to June) particularly in May and July before the first season harvest which begins in July, but this should be compensated by improved terms of trade with increased labor opportunities beginning in June/July as the harvest approaches. Although difficult to ascertain, due to absence of climatic information, the FEWS Net remote sensing information shows that the season rainfall situation was below average in western cropping areas and above average in wadi cultivation and pastoral areas of the center and East, but is forecasted to be near average through the end of the rainy season in June. This should be closely monitored as the rainfall season of 2011/12 had been poor, affecting all farmers, and especially the poorest. The continued depletion of the ground water resources is also increasing aridity and reducing the economic prospects, making the farming population more vulnerable to food and livelihood insecurity.

Methods and process The IPC analysis began in February 2013 and was updated in April 2013. The analysis used secondary information from various sources. The information was then organized according to IPC outcomes (food consumption, livelihood change, nutritional status and mortality) and contributing factors as per the IPC analytical framework. Major secondary sources included WFP Yemen Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) Bulletin March 2013, UNICEF SMART survey 2012, UNOCHA secondary data analysis, Ministry of agriculture and irrigation, Central statistic Office (FSIS), FEWS net livelihood zone classification and periodic reports, WFP market information. Based on data availability, the IPC National Technical Working Group (NTWG) decided to use the governorate level as unit of analysis. The IPC National Technical Working Group analyzed 13 governorates, and had to exclude the governorates of Sa’ada, Al Jawif, Hadramout, Dhamar, Shabowa, Mareb, Al Mahra and Sana’a City, due to insufficient quantity and quality of information. The analysts included experts from agriculture, livestock, nutrition, food security, statisticians, engineers, economists and other persons familiar with the governorates analyzed. This map is a technical consensus between all members of the NTWG.

Recommendations for next steps  Strengthen capacity of national analysts and raise awareness among decision-makers.  Decentralize the IPC analysis process at governorate level – to capture local knowledge on dynamics of acute food insecurity and if data allows, use the district as unit of analysis for a more detailed analysis.  Lead the analysis of chronic food insecurity using the specific IPC tools to be released early 2014.  Identify a clear mechanism for calculating food insecure population using consistent and comparable data in Yemen.  Standardize and harmonize the data collected by different partners. The coordination mechanism should clearly identify and set the timing and geographic areas for the data collection. The next analysis round should take place around October 2013, depending on availability of data and funding.

Population estimate based on equivalence of the Food Consumption Score with IPC phases (WFP FSMS March 2013, data collected in December 2012) In the absence of other relevant indicators available in a consistent manner, allowing to triangulate and develop a reliable estimate of the food insecure population in Yemen with the IPC, the FCS can be used indicatively, applying the standard calibration of its three categories to the IPC phases as follows:

Acceptable FCS Borderline FCS Poor FCS Poor & Borderline FCS Total Phase 1 Phase 5 Governorate number Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 3 or Higher of people % No % No % No % No % No % No Ibb 2,600,000 53.4 1,388,400 27.5 715,000 19.1 496,600 - - 46.6 1,211,600

Abyan 523,000 50.4 263,592 29.7 155,331 19.9 104,077 - - 49.6 259,408

Al Bayda 699,000 41.3 288,687 13.9 97,161 44.8 313,152 - - 58.7 410,313

Taiz 2,918,000 59 1,721,620 22.3 650,714 18.7 545,666 - - 41 1,196,380

Hajja 1,904,000 54.1 1,030,064 29.2 555,968 16.7 317,968 - - 45.9 873,936

Hodeidah 2,829,000 56.8 1,606,872 25 707,250 18.2 514,878 - - 43.2 1,222,128

Sana'a 1,076,000 32.8 352,928 41.6 447,616 25.5 274,380 - - 67.1 721,996

Aden 806,000 76.6 617,396 17.7 142,662 5.7 45,942 - - 23.4 188,604

Lahj 895,000 44.2 395,590 29.5 264,025 26.4 236,280 - - 55.9 500,305

Al Mahweet 626,000 58 363,080 27.3 170,898 14.7 92,022 - - 42 262,920

Amran 999,000 48.6 485,514 28.1 280,719 23.4 233,766 - - 51.5 514,485

Ad Daleh 632,000 38.3 242,056 38.3 242,056 23.3 147,256 - - 61.6 389,312

Rayma 507,000 39.7 201,279 34.9 176,943 25.3 128,271 - - 60.2 305,214

Total 17,014,000 52.25 8,957,078 28.08 4,606,343 21.67 3,450,258 - - 47 7,996,580

Note: a). Governorates of Sa’ada, Al Jawuf, Sanaá City, Hadramout, Dhamar, Shabowa, Mareb and Al Mahra, with an estimated total population of 8,222,000, are not covered in this analysis. b). The population figures are a projection from 2004 census (Source: CSO)

Seasonal calendar in a typical year (FEWS net 2010)

Indicator When to monitor Prices of cereals and pulses Throughout the year Water availability Throughout the year Consumption coping strategies Monthly, quarterly Terms of trade (wage and animal Vs food) Throughout the year Casual labor opportunities and rates Monthly/Quarterly Human and livestock disease Throughout the year Rainfall and season performance Quarterly Stability (security) Throughout the year

Contacts for further information Yemen IPC Technical Work Group: Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Planning, FAO, WFP, UNICEF IPC Global Support Unit : www.ipcinfo.org IPC Global Partners