The American Political Science Association APSA Volume 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization October 2013 In This Issue CD Inequalit y and Regime Change: The Role of “Inequality and Distributive Conflict Democratization: Stephan Haggard, University of California, San Diego Robert Kaufman, Rutgers University What Do We Terence Teo, Rutgers University Know?” In a recent article in the American Political Science Review, we 1 Obituary for Juan Linz Alfred Stepan and Jeff Miley attempted to test what we call “distributive conflict” models of regime change using a qualitative data set of transitions to and 1 Inequality and Regime Change 1 Stephan Haggard, Robert from democracy from 1980 through 2000. These models, pioneered Kaufman, and Terence Teo by Carles Boix (2003) and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2006)2 rest on complex 1 Rethinking Inequality and Democratization causal chains including both structural and game-theoretic components: inequality, Ben Ansell and David Samuels strategic interactions between incumbents and oppositions over the nature of political 2 RMDs institutions, and the ever-present threat of repression from above and violence from below. Carles Boix 2 Democracy, Public Policy, and Inequality 1. Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, “Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Democratic Rule,” American Political Science Review 106 (August 2012): 495–516; Stephan Haggard, Robert Kaufman, and Pascual Restrepo and James A. Terence K. Teo, Distributive Conflict and Regime Change: A Qualitative Dataset, 1980-2008,2012. Robinson 3 Inequality, Democratization, and 2. Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003); Daron Acemoglu and James Democratic Consolidation Robinson, Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006). Christian Houle (continued on page 4) 26 Section News 33 New Research 40 Editorial Committee Rethinking Inequalit y and Democratization: How Inequalit y Divides Elites and Underpins Regime Obituary for Change uan inz J L Ben Ansell, Oxford University With the sad news of Professor David Samuels, University of Minnesota Juan Linz passing away on 1 Tuesday, October 1, 2013, we Despite the implications of Przeworski et al. , the search for factors that might felt no need to issue an editor’s drive “endogenous” democratization is alive and well. However, scholarship on note in this issue. We instead the political consequences of economic change has shifted from the hypothesized asked Professor Linz’s disciples impact of economic growth to the question of the political consequences of and friends Jeff Miley and different patterns of equal or unequal growth. We owe this ‘redistributivist’ turn - which draws Alfred Stepan to write an attention to a purported tension between democracy and property - to the influence of Daron 2 obituary. There is poetry and Acemoglu and James Robinson and Carles Boix. These studies vary in how they formalize the meaning in that this obituary 1. Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development is being written by one of his (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000). first, and one of his last PhD 2. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, “A Theory of Political Transitions,”American Economic Review 91 (September candidates, both of whom 2001): 938–963; Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006); Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution (New York: Cambridge University Press, learned from him to his final 2003). days, and like all his students, (continued on page 8) (continued on page 3) Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

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RMDs Carles Boix, Princeton University

Redistributive models of democracy (RMD), to use Haggard and Kaufman’s expression, have been criticized on several counts: (1) their empirical performance is weak; (2) they make unconditional predictions about the relationship between structural variables (inequality, asset specificity, organizational and information parameters) and political transitions; and (3) the parameters of the models are either too narrow and stylized or simply wrong – particularly (a) the assumption of rational, self-interested actors motivated by material interests, (b) the definition of ‘classes’, (c) the sequence of the political decision process, and (d) the tax setting model. After examining these critiques briefly here, I conclude that, broadly speaking, the idea of democracy as an equilibrium (given by the material payoffs of relevant social and economic actors) is: (1) relatively robust and (2) the best point of departure (or, in Lakatos’ terms, a core) from which to progressively build a satisfactory theory of political transitions.

Empirical Performance of the Theory Several important empirical tests on RMD find that the association between economic inequality, asset specificity and political transitions either does not exist, is highly unstable or is restricted to democratic breakdowns. Houle (2009) concludes that inequality makes democratic breakdowns more likely but does not affect democratic transitions after 1960. Ansell and Samuels (2010) find that land inequality explains democratic transitions since the mid-19th century but that income inequality has the opposite effect. Haggard and Kaufman (2012) claim that almost half of all political transitions since 1980 are unrelated to distributive conflict.

As I have insisted elsewhere,1 the examination of the covariates of political transitions has to be systematic to the point of including all the 1. Christian Houle, “Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does not Affect Democratization,”World Politics 61 (October 2009): 589-622; Ben Ansell and David Samuels, “Inequality and Democratization: A Contractarian Approach,” Comparative Political Studies 43 (December 2010): 1543-1574; Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, “Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule,” American Political Science Review 106

(continued on page 12)

Democracy, Public Policy and Inequalit y Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Suresh Naidu, Columbia University Pascual Restrepo, Universidad de los Andes James A. Robinson, Harvard University The relationship between inequality and democracy has been theorized since at least Aristotle, but in the last decade it has been subject to intense theoretical and empirical investigation. The first formal models of democratic transitions by Acemoglu and Robinson (2000, 2001) suggested that there would be an inverse U-shaped relationship between inequality and democratization. Autocracies that were too equal would not democratize because there would not be enough social conflict to create an effective demand for changes in political institutions. Autocracies that were too unequal would not democratize either because democratization would be very costly for non-democratic elites who would attempt to stay in power via repression. These models also predicted that democratization itself ought to reduce inequality as the newly enfranchised would vote for redistribution and more active government policy.

These theoretical results were obviously conditional on key modeling decisions. For one, political conflict was conceived of as rich/elite versus poor/citizen with autocracy being associated with rule by the elite and democratization being associated with a transfer of power from rich to poor with a resulting change in policy from pro-elite to pro-poor. Though this set-up has a parsimonious appeal, the comparative statics are conditional on some very simple models of both types of political regime. For example, Acemoglu and Robinson (2006) showed that once one relaxed the simple poor versus rich nature of political conflict in their original models as well as the restriction of policy instruments, the nature of the comparative statics with respect to inequality in the basic model changed.1 Put simply, if the groups in conflict were not

1. Daron Acemoglu, and James A. Robinson, “Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Growth, Inequality and Democracy in Historical Perspective,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (2000): 1167-1199; Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, “A Theory of Political Transitions,”American Economic Review 91 (September 2001): 938- 963; Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006). (continued on page 16)

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Inequalit y, Democratization, and Democratic Consolidation Christian Houle, Michigan State University Does inequality affect democracy? Recently a large literature has argued that inequality influences both the likelihood of transition to and away from democracy, often through similar mechanisms. In this note, I argue that it is necessary to clearly distinguish between the effects of inequality on democratization and on democratic consolidation. As demonstrated by Przeworski et al. regarding economic development, for example, some factors may have very different implications for these two transition processes.

Building on my previous work, I argue that inequality harms the consolidation of democracies but does not affect the likelihood of transition to democracy itself. In other words,1 unequal countries are not more or less likely to transition to democracy, but once they democratize they are less likely to remain democratic. I extend my previous analysis in three ways. First, my previous analysis used a single measure of inequality: the capital shares of the value added in production. In this note, I show that my results are robust to the use of Gini indexes. Second, I tackle the issue of endogeneity between inequality and democracy by using a novel instrumental variable strategy.

Third, the capital shares dataset I used in my previous article ended in 2000 and about seventy countries were excluded from the analysis because of the lack of inequality data. Other recent empirical studies typically have an even larger proportion of missing observations. I use the extended version of the capital shares dataset I introduced in Houle.2 It covers 183 countries between 1960 and 2008, and contains more 1. Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000); see, in particular: Christian Houle, “Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does not Affect Democratization,”World Politics 61 (October 2009): 589-622.

2. Christian Houle, “Does Inequality Harm Economic Development and Democracy? Evidence from a Complete and Comparable Data Set on Inequality,” in Carol Lancaster and Nicolas van de Walle, eds., Oxford University Press Handbook on the Politics of Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming). See Houle, “Does Inequality Harm,” for more information on the imputation technique and the extent to which the dataset satisfies the basic criteria necessary for using such (continued on page 21 )

Obituary for Juan Linz, continued (continued from page 1) love and miss him terribly. works were on inequality and political and therefore help avoid repeating such paralysis in the United States, and on “state collective tragedies. His work on democratic Obituary for Juan J. Linz nations” in countries like India where the breakdowns especially so, motivated as it was On Tuesday October 1, 2013, Juan José effort to impose a “nation state” would be in by a sentiment well expressed by Meinecke, Linz Storch de Gracia died at the age of tension with an inclusionary democracy and the great German historian whose reaction 86. Professor Linz was undoubtedly one internal peace. to Hitler’s appointment as chancellor was the finest political sociologists in the world. one that Linz was particularly fond of Legendary for the encyclopedic breadth of Linz’s undying passion for such diverse but quoting – namely, “This was not necessary.” his knowledge, his ideas and writings deeply intertwined subjects was largely a product influenced debates surrounding a vast array of his traumatic experience growing up Linz came to New York in 1950 to pursue of the century’s most important political in interwar Europe. Born in the Weimar a doctoral degree in Sociology at Columbia problems. Republic to a Spanish mother and German University, an institution with which he father, Linz would witness first-hand over would remain affiliated for nearly two Linz’s empirical and theoretical the course of his childhood and adolescence a decades until 1969, when he moved to contributions to scholarly research and sequence of tragic social and political events: Yale where he would stay for the rest of his literature were legion. He contributed first in Germany, the economic crisis of the life. Upon his arrival at Columbia, he soon with path-breaking work on regime types, Weimar Reublic, its subsequent breakdown, gained a reputation for his extraordinary the dynamics of democratic breakdowns, and the rise to power and domination of the erudition and unparalleled command of transitions to democracy, democratic Nazis; then, after moving with his mother to comparative European history as well as institutional design, presidentialism versus Spain in the Spring of 1936, the breakdown social and political thought. Having already parliamentarism, parties and party systems, of the country’s Second Republic and been mentored in Spain by Javier Conde, political and business elites, federalism, its bloody Civil War. Linz’s work would he took classes and worked very closely at nationalism, and fascism. His most recent be consistently concerned to understand Columbia with Robert K. Merton, Paul (continued on page 25) 3 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

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Haggard, Kaufman, and Teo, continued (continued from page 1)

We argued that both theoretical and from distributive conflict transitions for authoritarian elites to repress methodological progress could be made appear more robust than those that political demands for redistribution. by undertaking detailed process tracing occur through a non-distributive They also note—contrary to Boix— of the components of these models. route. that at low levels of inequality there is We examined not only the reduced- little demand for democratization. Boix form relationship between inequality Distributive Conflict Models thus sees the prospects for democratic and regime change—on which there The work of both Boix (2003) and transitions to be inversely correlated has been surprisingly little supportive Acemoglu and Robinson (A&R, 2006) with inequality. A&R by contrast evidence for the theory (Acemoglu builds on the seminal Meltzer-Richard conclude that the relationship between et. al., this symposium)—but also the (MR) model (1981).3 MR provide a inequality and democratic transitions postulated mechanisms through which formal model of redistribution under should exhibit an inverted-U pattern, inequality translated into pressures for democratic rule, and thus a baseline with transitions to democratic rule authoritarian or democratic elites to for how the distribution of income most likely to occur at intermediate yield power. would change as a result of a transition levels of inequality. from authoritarian to democratic We distinguished in particular governance. Boix (p. 37) captures A&R add another layer of complexity between distributive conflict and non- the general spirit of these models: “a by considering credible commitment distributive conflict transitions. In the more unequal distribution of wealth problems; these issues are directly former, pressures from below appeared increases the redistributive demands germane to the controversial question to directly influence decisions by elites of the population…. [However] as the of how these models treat collective to make democratic concessions. In the potential level of transfers becomes action. In addition to the possibility latter, pressures from below did not larger, the authoritarian inclinations of repressing outright, A&R note that play a decisive role; transitions resulted of the wealthy increase and the elites can maintain power by making from incumbent initiatives, intra-elite probabilities of democratization and short-run economic concessions conflicts, and/or external pressures. democratic stability decline steadily.” to defuse threats from below. Yet How this strategic interaction between politically and economically excluded In this note, we revisit the theoretical elites and masses plays out depends groups are aware that elites can renege issue of how inequality generates regime on the level of inequality, the capacity on these concessions when pressures change, and the role of distributive to repress and other parameters such from below subside. Lower class groups conflict in particular. We summarize as capital mobility. Nonetheless, the are thus likely to press their advantage new results based on an updated challenge to the authoritarian status during windows when collective action version of our dataset that includes all quo emanates from what Acemoglu problems are temporarily resolved. democratic transitions through 2008. and Robinson call de facto as opposed The results strengthen our earlier to de jure political power: the ability These credible commitment problems finding that a large share of transitions of lower class groups to challenge elite can generate a counterintuitive result. occur in the absence of significant incumbents through mass mobilization, It might seem that transitions would be pressure from below, suggesting that strikes, demonstrations, riots and other more likely when lower class groups are distributive conflict models are at best physical threats to elite security. well-organized. Yet A&R argue that this subject to unspecified scope limitations, is not necessarily the case “because with including the capacity of subordinated While the basic insight of these a frequent revolutionary threat, future groups to overcome barriers to collective distributive conflict models is intuitive, redistribution becomes credible.”4 As action. the details are not. This can be seen an historical example, they cite the fact in differences in the treatment of that Germany—the country with the We conclude with some preliminary inequality, the central causal factor in most developed socialist movement— findings on how the nature of the these models. A&R agree with Boix that created novel welfare institutions transition to democratic rule may affect high inequality increases the incentives without extending the franchise while

the prospects for consolidation. We 3. Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard, “A Rational political elites in Britain and France find that the democracies that emerge Theory of the Size of Government,”Journal of 4. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins, 161, Political Economy 89 (October 1981): 914-927. 200.

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were forced to extend the franchise as a on the effects of inequality and other contrast, were ones in which these result of pressures from below. structural variables. But if distributive elements were missing. Elite withdrawal We are hard pressed, however, to think conflict models are correct, we would was motivated by international of contemporary examples in which a expect to see democratic transitions pressures, intra elite conflicts, or what high capacity for collective action on preceded by mass mobilization that we call “pre-emptive” motives, in which the part of the poor was responsible for threatens authoritarian incumbents and elites initiated regime change in the stable, redistributive authoritarian rule. forces them to withdraw. belief that they could remain in office The primary focus of Economic Origins or effectively veto their democratic is on situations in which sporadic—if The qualitative data set that provided successors. unexplained—collective action drives the empirical base for the APSR regime change. The basic game on paper5 looks directly at this causal In coding the cases, we were deliberately which all others build distinguishes mechanism. Our data set assessed permissive, writing coding rules that between a low threat situation in which the role of distributive conflict in all gave the benefit of the doubt to the there are high costs for citizens to transitions indicated in the Polity theory. Unlike the extant inequality solve collective action problems and a IV (n=57) and Cheibub, Ghandi and data, our coding allowed us to consider high threat situation in which “citizens Vreeland (hereafter CGV; n=65) a variety of distributive conflicts that are able to solve the collective action datasets between 1980 and 2000.6 We may not be captured by any single problem relatively costlessly and/or drew a simple dichotomous distinction inequality measure, from urban class elites are not well organized in their between distributive and non- conflicts to ethnic, regional and sectoral defense…” (p. 145). To what extent do distributive conflict transitions. We ones. The economically disadvantaged contemporary transitions comport with coded “distributive conflict” transitions or the organizations representing them this distinction between “high threat” as ones in which both of the following need not be the only ones mobilized and “low threat” environments? occurred: in opposition to the existing regime. Although mass mobilization must partly Some simple tests • The mobilization of redistributive reflect demands for redistribution, it Despite their differences, these grievances on the part of economically can be motivated by other grievances distributive conflict theories share disadvantaged groups or representatives as well. Yet mobilization must arise two important assumptions that are of such groups (parties, unions, NGOs) around distinctive and identifiable amenable to empirical observation. posed a threat—a “clear and present inequalities at least to some extent. First, although there are disagreements danger”—to the incumbency of ruling about the political dynamics of low and elites, and Even with a very permissive coding, intermediate levels of inequality, there is we found a large share of cases (44.6 agreement that democratic transitions • The rising costs of repressing these percent of the CVG transitions and are unlikely at high levels of inequality. demands appear to have motivated 42.1 percent of the Polity cases) in Second—and more important for elites to make political compromises or which distributive conflict played only our purposes—it is assumed that exit in favor of democratic challengers. a marginal role. Using three separate democracy is likely to occur when The presence of this causal mechanisms measures of inequality (capital’s share lower class groups are able to overcome was indicated at a minimum by a clear of income in the manufacturing sector, barriers to collective action—even if temporal sequence—mass mobilization a Gini coefficient from the Estimated only temporarily—and mobilize “de followed by authoritarian withdrawal— Household Income Inequality Data facto power” in favor of democracy. but where possible we drew on other Set and the Vanhanen measure of land The assumptions about collective evidence as well, including elite inequality) we also found that between action receive only limited attention in statements. 29 and 34 percent of all transitions the two books (Boix, this symposium); occurred in countries ranked in the in fact, A&R explicitly assume the Non-distributive transitions, by upper tercile of these measures; a high problem away by treating “citizens” as a share of transitions were taking place 5. Haggard and Kaufman, “Inequality and Regime 7 unitary actor in the formal models. And Change”. in high-inequality settings. Moreover, the role of mass mobilization is almost 7. Christian Houle, “Inequality and Democracy: entirely ignored in the econometric 6. José Antonio Cheibub, Jennifer Gandhi, and Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does Not James R. Vreeland, “Democracy and Dictatorship Affect Democratization,”World Politics 61(October literature, which focuses more directly Revisited,” Public Choice 143(April 2010): 67-101. 2009): 589-622; University of Texas Inequality

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a high proportion of these were heterogeneity. For the Third Wave of a negative role in non-distributive ones. distributive conflict transitions. Using recent democratization—when there the Gini as the measure of inequality, was in fact substantial divergence in We also find that the type of about 75 percent of the high-inequality political developments across cases- authoritarian regime appears to have transitions were characterized by -a large share of transitions simply a differential effect on the likelihood distributive conflict; the incidence of do not reflect the causal mechanisms of distributive and non-distributive such high-inequality transitions was stipulated in the theory, either with transitions. Challenges from below are 60 percent using the land inequality respect to the role of inequality or less likely under authoritarian regimes measure and 57 percent using capital’s distributive conflict. with multiparty legislatures—perhaps share of manufacturing income. We because of their capacity to coopt drew two conclusions: that inequality Extensions opposition—and more likely under did not appear to have the stipulated Despite these findings, the distributive military regimes that did not typically effect on the likelihood of transitions; conflict approach reopens the debate provide such channels of representation. and that distributive conflict was not a about the causes and consequences of On the other hand, the distinction uniform driver of democratization. At different transition paths. Do these between military and multiparty best, the effect of inequality worked paths arise from different causal regimes was not consequential in non- under scope conditions that were not roots? And more importantly, does the distributive transitions, which were clearly specified in the theory. distinction between distributive and driven primarily by elite actors who non-distributive conflict transitions were either tolerated by incumbent We have subsequently extended the have any enduring effect on the nature rulers or parts of the ruling circle itself. Haggard, Kaufman, and Teo data of democratic rule? We report some set through 2008, adding 14 cases to preliminary findings here. The likelihood of non-distributive the CGV transitions (n=79) and 16 transitions was, however, affected by cases to the Polity ones (n=73). The To explore the first question, we ran economic and international factors results remain essentially the same; if separate rare event logit estimates proxied in the regressions. Low or anything, they are even less favorable with country-clustered robust standard negative growth consistently predicted to the distributive conflict approach. errors and cubic time polynomials on non-distributive as well as distributive Between 34 and 45 percent of all the likelihood of each type of transition. transitions, presumably by intensifying transitions were in the most unequal Given space limitations the regressions elite struggles over rents or diminishing countries—again measured by the top are not presented here but are available their capacity to manipulate electoral terciles—and of these, between 37.5 from the authors on request. support. Non-distributive transitions and 55.6 percent were distributive (but not distributive ones) were affected conflict transitions. The percentage of As noted, we are particularly interested as well by the incidence of neighboring distributive conflict transitions among in the capacity of mass groups to democracies, an indication of the the CGV coding fell from 54.4 to 53.2 overcome barriers to collective action. relative importance of diffusion effects percent; Polity transitions conforming One factor – industrialization – has and other forms of external pressure. to the distributive conflict model long been viewed as a foundation for fell from 57.9 to only 49.3 percent. mobilization along class lines. In the Again, inequality had no effect on Boix (this symposium) argues that regressions, we use the size of the either type of transition. valid tests of the model must include manufacturing sector to proxy for this the full historical record to capture potential. Of course, the role played The Effects of Transition Paths the initial divergence associated with in collective action by non-economic The implicit question raised by democratization in the advanced factors such as ethnicity or religion the discussion in the preceding industrial states. However, this approach also require examination. Nevertheless, section is whether “non-distributive” makes strong assumptions about the it is noteworthy that manufacturing transitions—dominated by external ability to control for incredible panel –a basis for worker coordination and influences and intra-elite politics—are Project, Estimated Household Income Inequality organization–does have a consistently less likely to result in full democracies (EHII) Dataset, Available at http://utip.gov.utexas. edu/data.html; Tatu Vanhanen, Democratization significant impact on distributive than ones driven at least in part by and Power Resources, 1850-2000, 2003, Available at transitions and an insignificant or even pressures from below. Distributive http://www.fsd.uta.fi/en/data/catalogue/FSD1216/.

6 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013 Haggard, Kaufman, and Teo

Table 1. Regression Estimates of the Effects of CGV Distributive and Non- Distributive Transitions on Polity Score in the Year Following the Transition, be associated with regime change in 1980-2008 a straightforward way, as Acemoglu

et. al. note in this symposium. Core 1 2 3 4 Explanatory Variables theoretical assumptions about the causal Transition 3.97*** importance of distributive demands 0.61 from below appear to pertain only in Non-Distributive Transition 2.67*** 2.71*** 1.04 1.04 a subset of cases. Distributive and

Distributive Transition 4.92*** 4.93*** non-distributive transitions are driven 0.72 0.72 by distinct political and economic Control Variables dynamics, including differences in Log GDP 4.13*** 4.15*** 4.17*** 4.17*** 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 the potential for mass groups to Log GDP per capita -4.55*** -4.61*** -4.61*** -4.60*** overcome barriers to collective action. 1.46 1.48 1.48 1.47 We also find preliminary evidence Trade Openness 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.04*** that distributive conflict transitions 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 generate more robust democracies, at Growth 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 least in the short run. These results Capital Openness 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.15 suggest the importance of revisiting 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 the logic and consequences of different Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization -3.51 -3.56 -3.53 -3.52 2.71 2.72 2.72 2.72 transition paths.

Military Dictatorship Dummy -4.31*** -4.16*** -4.26*** -4.31*** 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.03 Stephan Haggard is the Lawrence and Sallye Krause Professor of Korea-Pacific Studies N 2234 2234 2234 2234 and director of the Korea-Pacific program at 90 90 90 90 Groups University of California, San Diego. Robert

R. Kaufman is a professor of political science

at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. conflict transitions may pose dangers of in model 4). Terence K. Teo is a PhD candidate in political destabilizing polarization for newly science at Rutgers University. established democratic governments, A distributive transition increases but it is also reasonable to assume a country’s Polity score by almost 5 that such governments would be more points relative to a “non-transition” responsive to a mobilized citizenry. year; a non-distributive transition by Governments emerging from non- only about 2.7 points. These results distributive transitions face no are robust to the inclusion of a variety equivalent pressures or restraints on the of control variables, including: GDP, abuse of power. growth, trade openness, ethnolinguistic fractionalization and prior rule by a The fixed-effects regressions below military dictatorship. In future work, address this issue by examining the way we will consider the longer-run path distributive and non-distributive CGV of democratic consolidation in the two transitions, defined more narrowly on types of transitions, but preliminary the basis of transitional elections, affect inspection of the cases suggests that subsequent Polity scores, which provide non-distributive conflict transitions are a broader measure of differences in followed by democracies that are not political form that includes political only weaker but more prone to reversal. rights and government accountability. Both distributive and non-distributive Conclusion CGV transitions have a significant The work of Boix and A&R has impact on the Polity score, but the opened up new avenues of research coefficients for distributive transitions about how conflicts over redistribution are almost twice as large as those for affect authoritarian and democratic non-distributive ones (4.93 versus 2.71 rule. Yet inequality does not appear to

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(continued from page 1) interplay between economic structure and which entails some redistribution. The connected social-class structures to political outcomes and in their empirical higher the inequality, the more the different Gini coefficients. Redistributivist approaches to testing hypotheses, but they autocratic elite have incentives to dig in arguments assume that a relatively low begin from the same simple theoretical their heels, just as the poor have stronger Gini implies that the median voter premise: the emergence of democracy is a incentives to rebel. Democracy is thus least is a member of the (relatively large) function of the incumbent autocratic elite’s likely when inequality is high, when the “middle” class, sociologically speaking, relative fear of redistribution to (and by) wealthy have less to fear from redistribution and likewise assume that a high Gini the poor – and the higher the inequality, to the poor. (Boix and A&R differ indicates that the middle class is relatively the greater the fear. regarding the poor’s relative incentives to small, and that the median voter is poor. push for democracy under low inequality.) This syllogism between democracy and In fact, this is backwards. Consider redistribution has become conventional We suggest that the redistributivist the example we provided in our 2010 wisdom. It is intuitive, has deep approach to regime change is theoretically paper: which country - China in 1880 philosophical roots, and has long been misleading and misses the mark empirically. or the UK in 1867 - is more likely to invoked on the political left and right In our 2010 article,4 we argued that this democratize? Everyone knows the answer (albeit for different reasons – to evoke hope approach relies on a set of questionable to this question, but what remains less well- versus instill fear). Moreover, the argument assumptions - about the nature of known is that China’s Gini at that time was gained widespread academic credence with inequality, about the relevant actors in .24, while the UK’s was .51. In the 19th Meltzer and Richard’s seminal median- democratization, and about those actors’ century, the UK had a large and growing voter model.3 This model assumes that political preferences - and also finds little “middle” class, while China did not. These under democracy the tax system will be empirical support in cross-national analysis. are not outliers: In poor and economically progressive: All citizens pay the same In our view democracy is not a function of stagnant societies, a low Gini does not proportion of their income, but benefits the monolithic elite’s fear of the poor, it imply a large middle class. It means that are universal and uniform, so that everyone is about the emergence of splits between nearly everyone is equally poor - and receives the same amount in subsidy. This incumbent and rising economic elites, that the median voter is a member of the means that the rich pay more than they with the latter fearing the expropriative impoverished masses. In contrast, relatively receive while the opposite is true for the power of the state far more than they fear poor but growing societies typically poor. Consequently, those with below- the redistributive threat from the poor. see higher Ginis not because the “1%” mean incomes favor redistribution, while exploits the “99%,” but because economic those above the mean oppose it. Because the Our argument offers a novel explanation development brings about greater inter- income distribution is always right-skewed, of the political consequences of inequality. group income differentials. With very the median voter has below-mean income While redistributivist arguments conceive few exceptions, in sociological terms high and hence desires redistribution, and this of inequality as the ratio of incomes between Gini coefficients in a developing country desire intensifies as the gap between mean rich and poor, we differentiate between the indicate a relatively large middle class, even and median income widens. The implication political consequences of land and income if the majority of a country’s population is straightforward: higher inequality inequality. We concur that land inequality remains poor, as in Victorian-era Britain. implies greater redistributive pressures. retards democratization, signifying the political power of landed elites, who seek This last point is crucial: A low Gini means This same logic underpins redistributivist to maintain the political and economic that the impoverished masses comprise well theories of regime change. As such, status quo. However, counterintuitively, over a majority of the population - 98% the question of “who matters” in these we suggest that income inequality – in 1880 China, e.g.. Yet even in wealthy approaches boils down to the conflict counterintuitively for the conventional examples such as 19th-century Britain, the between the rich and the relatively poor wisdom – promotes democratization. (sociological) “middle” classes (bourgeoisie median voter, who - under majority rule - and white-collar workers) are not to be sets the tax rate. The elite wants to maintain The conventional view is misleading found in the (mathematical) “middle” of the the autocratic status quo, under which taxes because scholars have never properly income distribution but in the top decile, or are zero, while the poor prefer democracy, at most the top quintile. The working classes 4. Ben Ansell and David Samuels, “Inequality and 3. Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard, “A Rational Democratization: A Contractarian Approach,” comprise at most the next 30% (usually Theory of the Size of Government,”Journal of Comparative Political Studies 43 (December 2010): much less), while incumbent autocratic Political Economy 89 (October 1981): 914-927. 1543-1574.

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elites are (again, at most) in the top 1-2%.5 elites comes from other relatively wealthy state9 to the study of regime change. The The default situation in a developing citizens - disenfranchised, newly-emerging key political “threat” in these accounts is autocracy over the last 200 years is that the economic groups who fear expropriation of not that the poor will expropriate the rich impoverished rural masses comprise more their wealth and property by the incumbent but that the incumbent elite - through than a majority of the population. It is worth autocratic elite, and who thus have powerful their control of the state - will expropriate noting that since Moore, scholars have incentives to organize and mobilize in everyone else. This view echoes Lockean debated whether the working class should defense of their interests and wealth. themes from Enlightenment liberalism also be included as a relevant actor in the about the symbiotic relationship between study of regime change, in addition to the This dynamic - of elite competition, democracy and property, and suggests bourgeoisie.6 No qualitative scholar has ever rather than conflict between rich and that liberalization of an autocratic suggested that those below the organized poor - is quite common historically.7 regime occurs when new outsider groups working class on the income distribution What causes elite competition to emerge? emerge who demand political power represent a credible threat to elite interests. Redistributivist approaches suggest that commensurate with their growing inequality results from dividing the gains economic influence. This imbalance Given this, and given that in the real world from growth in a single-sector economy. of power is a recipe for contestation the median voter is almost always a member We suggest that income inequality results over the nature of the political regime. of the poor underclass, redistributivist from the distribution of resources both arguments tend to exaggerate the within and between two different sectors Our approach to understanding elite political relevance of the median voter. In of a growing economy - a stagnant interests implies that the Meltzer-Richard developing autocracies, it is safer to assume agricultural sector and a growing industrial model offers a misleading and limited that the poor majority - Marx’s famous sector, for example. This allows us to notion of what the state ‘does.’ Acemoglu “potatoes in a sack” - is politically inert, explain why different types of inequality and Robinson, for example, emphasize that rather than a potential threat to those who have distinct political consequences. autocratic elites cannot credibly commit to control the coercive power of the state. redistribute income because when threats by As Simon Kuznets famously explained the masses to revolt die down the elite have Gaining proper understanding of how decades ago,8 income inequality tends to incentives to revert to zero redistribution. different class structures correspond to increase with the onset of industrialization, Yet all redistributivist analyses constrain different Gini coefficients returns us to because both urban labor and especially elites to follow the Meltzer-Richard model the question of “who matters” for regime urban bourgeois groups benefit. Our two- of redistribution - a flat tax and a uniform change, and why income inequality is sector model of endogenous political subsidy applied to all citizens, although there positively related to democratization. Our change derives from classic ‘dual sector’ is little reason to believe that elites should approach flips the redistributive theoretical models of economic growth, in which be so constrained, either theoretically or approach on its head in terms of who new economic groups appropriate most historically. What is to stop autocratic elites matters and why. If the median voter is of the gains from industrialization. These from taxing others but not themselves, or poor and the poor are politically inert, then models help understand why rising income from spending money on ‘club goods’ the poor cannot represent a potential threat inequality does not mean that an existing rather than universal benefits, for example? to autocratic elites in a hypothetical future elite is simply growing richer at everyone The redistributivist approach precludes a democracy. Instead, a more theoretically else’s expense, but instead signals the predatory state that expropriates income fruitful approach begins with the idea that emergence of new, rival economic groups. from rising elites and the masses - and yet the principal threat to incumbent autocratic Why do rising elites press for 9. Douglass North and Barry Weingast, democratization? Our argument extends “Constitutions and Commitment,” Journal of 5. Branco Milanovic, Peter Lindert, and Jeffrey the logic of North and Weingast and Economic History 49 (December 1989): 803-832; Williamson, “Pre-Industrial Inequality,” The Robert Bates and Donald Lien, “A Note on Taxation, Economic Journal 121 (March 2011): 255–272; Adam other neo-institutionalist theories of the Development, and Representative Government,” Przeworski and John Sprague, Paper Stones: A History Politics and Society 14 (March 1985): 53-70; of Electoral Socialism (Chicago: University of Chicago Margaret Levi, Of Rule and Revenue (Berkeley: Press, 1986), 35. 7. Collier, Paths toward Democracy; Stephan Haggard University of California Press, 1988); Mancur Olson, and Robert R. Kaufman, “Inequality and Regime “Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development,” 6. Barrington Moore, Social Origins of Dictatorship Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of American Political Science Review 87 (September and Democracy (New York: Beacon, 1966); Dietrich Democratic Rule,” American Political Science Review 1993): 567-576. On classical “dual“ models, see Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber, and John D. 106 (August 2012): 495–516. W. Arthur Lewis, “Economic Development with Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy Unlimited Supplies of Labour,” The Manchester (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992); Ruth 8. Simon Kuznets, “Economic Growth and Income School 22 (May 1954): 139-191; John R. Harris and Collier, Paths toward Democracy: The Working Class Inequality,” American Economic Review 45 (March Michael P. Todaro, “Migration, Unemployment and and Elites in Western Europe and South America (New 1955): 1–28. Development: A Two-Sector Analysis,” American York: Cambridge University Press, 1999). Economic Review 60 (March 1970): 126–142. 9 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

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the threat to life, liberty and property is Figure 1: Inequality, Democracy and Public Spending central to the nature of autocratic regimes.

In short, once we understand that in a developing autocracy high Ginis indicate the presence of sizable rising middle (and working) classes, we can better understand the relationship between economic growth, income inequality, and regime change. Democracy is not about redistribution - it is about taxation without representation, a conflict between rival economic elites for control over the expropriative and coercive authority of the State. The most propitious ‘structural’ conditions for democracy in a developing society are when land inequality is low but income inequality is high. Democracy is less likely to emerge when both land and income inequality are low, even less likely when both are high, and least likely when land inequality is high and income inequality is low. As these conditions change, the relative

power of rural and urban interests change.

The empirical analyses in our 2010 democracy should produce higher levels shows the effect of democratization (using paper, and several additional tests in our of redistributive spending. By contrast, our the Boix-Rosato index) on redistributive forthcoming book, confirm our predictions. approach implies that a triumphant rising spending (measured as a change in % We find no evidence that income inequality economic elite would not redistribute to of GDP at 10-year intervals) at various retards democratization, either in a dataset the poor. After democratization this new levels of inequality. Clearly, spending covering 1820 to 1992 or in a different elite might increase taxes on the old elite only increases after a regime change dataset from 1950 to 2004. We also find to help pay for public spending, but only when income inequality is low – and no evidence for the inverted-U relationship on club goods - services that primarily benefit redistributive spending actually declines between inequality and democratization their own economic class. If we are correct that at high levels of income inequality. These that Acemoglu and Robinson suggest. high income inequality reflects the power findings are precisely the opposite of what Instead, we find a strong positive of this rising elite, then the combination redistributivist theories would predict. correlation between income inequality and of inequality and democracy should democratization, even as land inequality be correlated with lower universalistic Our approach also generates predictions exhibits the expected negative effect. Our redistributive spending to the poor than in about citizens’ preferences for redistribution findings suggest that the study of regime a democracy with low income inequality. and democracy under autocracy. The change and “endogenous” democratization” redistributivist approach predicts that the would profit from a more nuanced Figure 1, taken from our book manuscript, rich want low redistribution, worry more understanding of both inequality and the demonstrates this pattern vividly. Building about redistribution when inequality is socioeconomic structure of competing elites. on work by Lindert,10 we collected original high, and tend to oppose democracy, largely data on redistributive spending for 62 because of its redistributive implications. In our forthcoming book we also explore countries between 1880 and 1930. Figure 1 We agree that richer citizens support our theory’s indirect implications. 10. Peter Lindert, Growing Public: Social Spending low redistribution to the poor. However, Redistributivist approaches presume and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century given our findings about the relationship (Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University that the combination of inequality and Press, 2004). between inequality and public spending

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Table 1: Probability of Believing Democracy is Very Desirable Low Income Medium Income High Income Taken together, our empirical findings about 1) the conditions that foster regime change; Anti-Redistribution 0.56 0.60 0.64 2) the relationship between inequality, Ambivalent 0.54 0.55 0.56 regime type and public spending; and 3) the Pro-Redistribution 0.52 0.50 0.48 preferences of citizens under autocracy all present a serious theoretical and empirical challenge to redistributivist models.

under democracy, our argument implies expectation. We analyzed 31 samples of Inequality does not signify that autocratic that wealthier citizens will be relatively less individuals across 23 autocracies covered elites fear the downtrodden masses. It concerned about redistribution to the poor by the World Values Survey, which asks instead signals the growth of new economic where income inequality is high, because people about their preferences over actors – rising elites who demand political inequality proxies for the presence of a democracy and redistribution. Table 1 power commensurate with their wealth. We politically and economically stronger middle explores how citizens answer a question suggest that our argument - which focuses class, who prefer to shift public spending about whether a democracy would be on fear of the expropriative threat of those towards itself and away from the poor. a good way to govern the country. We who control the state versus fear of the are interested in the combined effects of redistributive threat from the poor - offers a Our model makes a similar prediction income and attitudes about redistribution better approach to the comparative study of about preferences for democracy. Under to the poor. Redistributivist approaches regime change and its contemporary effort autocracy, we expect relatively wealthier expect high income / anti-redistribution to understand the complicated interplay citizens - save for the relatively few individuals to be least supportive of between growth, inequality, and the politics members of the incumbent elite - to democracy, yet we find precisely the reverse. of democratization across time and space. strongly prefer democratization, since As per our elite-competition model, members of this group face greater risks of richer citizens - indeed those who least losses from expropriation under autocracy, favor redistribution to the poor - actually Ben Ansell is professor of comparative relative to the poor. Table 1, again drawn most strongly support democratization. democratic institutions and international from our book manuscript, confirms this relations and professorial fellow at

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Boix, continued (continued from page 2)

Table 1: Economic Inequality and Unconditional Political Transitions Table 2 examines the correlates of democratic Annual probability of transitions and democratic stability using a Transition to democracy Democratic breakdown Index of knowledge distribution data set that spans from 1850 to 2000. Models 0-0.2 0.53 8.74 are estimated via standard pooled OLS 0.2-0.4 1.75 5.29 regression and have the following structure: 0.4-0.6 3.09 1.00 D = α + β D + ρ I + ρ C + δ + η + ε 0.6-0.8 3.94 0.40 it t-10 i,t-10 t-10 i,t-10 t-10 i,t-k t i it 0.8-1 0.00 0.70 where Dit is either the continuous Polity Proportion of family farms IV index (normalized between 0 and 1) 0-0.2 1.15 4.83 0.2-0.4 1.76 2.67 or the Boix-Miller-Rosato dichotomous 0.4-0.6 0.88 1.63 index of democracy, I corresponds to the 0.6-0.8 1.94 0.46 different economic inequality measures, 0.8-1 3.13 0.23 η C are a stack of control variables, i is a δ country specific effect, t is a period-specific ε cases since the emergence of contemporary correlates of income and wealth inequality: constant, and it is an error term. In Columns democracy in the 19th century to generate the distribution of agricultural property (the 1 and 3, which examine the covariates of credible results. Most of the significant area of family farms as a percentage of the total transitions to democracy, the value of the (at least until the late 20th century) and area of holdings) and the extension of skilled dependent variable is the maximum value lasting political change occurred during the or educated workers. Both variables track of democracy at either time t or time t-1: democratization wave that started with the economic inequality relatively well. For the this effectively restricts the analysis to liberal revolutions of 1848 and concluded period after 1950, the correlation coefficient those cases in which there has been an right after World War One. Using post- between the Gini index of economic increase in democracy. In Column 2 and 4, 1960 data (while adding country fixed inequality (excluding socialist economies) which estimate the impact of inequality on effects) only risks misestimating the true and the percentage of family farms is -0.66. transitions3 away from democracy, the value effects of economic and social change For countries with a per capita income below of the dependent variable is the minimum on political development since there $2,000 the correlation coefficient is -0.75. value of democracy at either time t or time was little within-country variance from The coefficient of correlation of the index t-1: this limits the analysis to those cases in 1960 well into the early 1990s. Empirical of education and the Gini index is -0.59.2 which there has been a decline in the level analyses of democratization are similar to To test the impact of inequality, we of democracy. The standard estimations empirical growth theory in one important should not compute different types of of political transitions employ nonlinear regard: employing postwar data sets may (redistributive versus non-redistributive) models to determine the effects of income. be good enough to estimate convergence transitions (cf. Haggard and Kaufman 2012) However, I here use linear models because effects (among economies that have without looking at the overall underlying nonlinear models do not generate consistent moved beyond the take-off stage) but it distribution of cases (where transitions may estimators in the presence of fixed effects. is not adequate to determine the sources or may not occur). Hence, Table 1 reports of initial divergence across countries. the probability of democratic transitions and The indices of family farms, human capital democratic breakdowns for different levels and non-agrarian employment have Finding the appropriate data to tests the (estimated as actual transitions over total been normalized from 0 to 1. All models 1 effects of inequality is difficult because country-years in each category) after 1850. include the log of per capita income, systematic income inequality data start late Higher levels of human capital equality which is systematically introduced on all in time. An alternative is to employ two are associated with a higher probability democratization models. Controlling for of transiting to democracy (except for the per capita income allows us to estimate (August 2012): 495–516; Carles Boix and Susan highest values) and a lower likelihood of the non-income or development effect of Stokes, “Endogenous Democratization,” World Politics democratic breakdowns. Land equality 55 ( July 2003): 517-49; Carles Boix, “Democracy, 3. Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi, Development and the International System,” only has a democratic stabilization effect. “Modernization: Theories and Facts,”World Politics American Political Science Review 105 (November 2. Tatu Vanhanen, Democratization and Power 49 ( January 1997): 155-183; Boix and Stokes, 2011): 809-828. See accompanying papers in this Resources, 1850-2000, 2003, Available at http:// “Endogenous Democratization;” David L. Epstein, issue and Haggard and Kaufman, “Inequality and www.fsd.uta.fi/en/data/catalogue/FSD1216/; Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, Ida Kristensen, and Regime Change,” for a more exhaustive list of recent Klaus Deininger and Lyn Squire, “A New Data Sharyn O’Halloran, “Democratic Transitions,” empirical tests of RMD. Set Measuring Income Inequality,” The World Bank American Journal of Political Science 50 ( July 2006): Economic Review 10 (September 1996): 565-591. 551–69. 12 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

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Table 2: Inequality and Democratic Transitions and Breakdowns, 1850-2000 other words, in an agrarian economy the Polity IV Index Dichotomous Index of Democracy probability of a democratic breakdown ------Transition to Breakdown of Transition to Breakdown of falls to 0 as one moves from concentrated Democracy Democracy Democracy Democracy land ownership (as in countries such as

(1) (2) (3) (4) Russia before the Stolypin reforms and the

Democracy t-10 0.591*** 0.735*** 0.552*** 0.695*** Soviet Revolution, Spain for most of the (0.038) (0.037) (0.039) (0.045) 20th century, and most Latin American

Log GDP per capita t-10 0.059 0.036 0.044 0.052 nations) to the highly fragmented property (0.039) (0.032) (0.049) (0.037) systems (as in countries such as Norway, the Proportion of Family -0.071 0.117*** -0.189* 0.157*** United States, and Canada, where family Farms t-10 (0.077) (0.045) (0.103) (0.052) farms represented three- to four-fifths of Index of Human Capital t-10 0.314** -0.107 0.462*** 0.000 all land) at the turn of the 20th century. (0.136) (0.231) (0.129) (0.128)

Proportion of Population -0.256 0.187 0.065 0.300 In Non-Agrarian Sector t-10 (0.242) (0.199) (0.347) (0.274) International factors matter to explain democratic transitions. The dummy variable Soviet Occupation -0.263*** -0.028 -0.321*** -0.028 (0.056) (0.035) (0.082) (0.040) “Soviet occupation” is statistically significant

International Order -0.015 0.013 -0.000 0.049** and it is associated with a reduction of (0.028) (0.023) (0.039) (0.025) 0.32 points in the movement toward more

Allied with US 0.162*** 0.012 0.229*** 0.054 democratic institutions. An alliance with (0.065) (0.024) (0.087) (0.049) the USA boosts democratic transitions

Alliance with US * Cold War -0.202*** -0.047** -0.181* -0.082* but only after the end of the Cold War. (0.067) (0.022) (0.096) (0.044) The international system seems to affect Observations 806 806 852 852 the stability of democracies too: a more Countries 132 132 137 137 R-squared 0.81 0.87 0.75 0.83 pro-democratic environment reduces the Fixed-effects OLS regressions with country dummies, time dummies and robust standard errors clustered by country in parentheses. occurrence of democratic breakdowns. *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05;*p<0.10; standard errors in parentheses These finding may explain why models

that estimate the effect of inequality in our inequality measures. The model adds that per capita income, as employed in the postwar period only get mixed results. four variables measuring the international the modernization literature in postwar system: an annual one coding the samples, behaves mostly as a proxy for Rationality and Material Interests international system as anti-democratic, other more fundamental factors. Generally RMD assume (1) rational, (2) self-interested neutral or pro-democratic;4 a dummy speaking, the level of inequality matters actors mostly motivated by (3) material specifying whether the country was an ally for democratization. However, it is worth payoffs. Questioning the assumption of of the USA or not; an interaction between1 noting that the causes of democratic rationality (defined as instrumentally-driven

alliance with the USA and Cold war; and transitions and of democratic breakdowns action to achieve certain goals) has been a dummy specifying whether the country is are partly different. Democratic transitions quite common since, at least, the work of under the control of the Soviet Union or not. are more likely to occur in countries with Green and Shapiro (1994). Other than higher levels of human capital (Columns 1 going back to detailed historical narratives, Notice, in the first place, that the coefficient and 3). Given that the dependent variable the alternative they suggest to replace the of per capita income remains positive ranges from 0 to 1, the effect is very rationality assumption is unclear. In my but it declines in size and loses statistical substantive. In turn, democratic breakdowns opinion, a fruitful way ahead may consist of significance in all models. This implies are mostly conditioned by the distribution applying the satisficing rules of behavior that of assets in the agrarian world. A higher Bendor et al. (2011) use to model elections.

4. See Carles Boix, “Political Order and Inequality,” proportion of family farms reduces the Unpublished manuscript, 2013, for a discussion of probability that a democratic country will Most of the critiques to RMD are directed this classification. The international system had an revert to authoritarian rule. (A positive to the decision to define the payoffs of the “anti-democratic” effect on domestic politics till 1848, from 1933 to 1942 and from 1948 to 1990. It was coefficient means that an authoritarian game in economic terms. Material payoffs “neutral” between 1849 and 1918 and from 1943 to regime is less likely to take place.) In play a key role in a wide range of situations – 1947. It was pro-democratic otherwise.

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as attested, for example, by a large literature must confront political-cum-distributive grouped into a set of discrete (normally on economic voting and on the class basis pressure from below” to the point that if two) representative types for the sake of of political alignments. Still, they are not the “the repression of these challenges appears simplicity. The distribution of income, which exclusive cause of political action. Ethnic too costly (…) the elites make institutional may vary from complete equality to extreme identity, religious preferences, political compromises as a result” (Haggard and inequality, is then related to a political status, etc. also matter.5 What is central to Kaufman 2012, p. 497). This rather reductive equilibrium. Hence, expressions such as RMD and to the “democracy as equilibrium” interpretation of RMD is mistaken. “under conditions of equality elites have little literature is the impact of heterogeneous to fear from democratization” (Ansell and preferences and capabilities on the ways The model in Boix (2003) departs Samuels 2010, p. 1547) do not make much in which individuals decide to govern from Przeworski’s seminal treatment of sense: under conditions of equality, there themselves. Again, this means that non- democracy as an equilibrium7 extending are no (economic) elites properly speaking. economic heterogeneity is equally susceptible it in two ways: it applies the idea of to be brought into democratization theory. “equilibrium” to all political regimes and it Moreover, in Boix (2003) the initial model links the actors’ payoffs to specific material characterizes society as having two groups. Political Actors conditions. To examine its implications, But it contains a section with three actors, Critiques of RMD complain that social the model contains a game sequence with defined by different levels of income and classes are treated as ‘objective’ phenomena different paths and outcomes (e.g., once by different levels of asset specificity, rather than outcomes of social and political the ruling group widens the franchise, the and predictions about partial democracy mobilization. In other words, RMD unenfranchised group accepts the reform). (collinear to income or based on cross-class disregard both the literature on collection Nonetheless, the fundamental value of the alliances). Limited democracy takes place action and a rich historiographical tradition model is its comparative statistic in terms when the middle class (or the industrial on the formation of the working class.6 of the robustness of each outcome (e.g., that bourgeoisie, once we defined wealthier I find this critique partly misplaced. In democracy and low inequality are compatible strata by their type of asset) grows richer. Boix (2003, pp. 27-30, 44-46) I indicate under most conditions) and much less In turn, universal suffrage takes place as the explicitly that both the level of organization about the particular mechanisms through lower strata get closer to the middle strata and the extent of class (or, more precisely, which transitions take place. Transitions (pp. 47-57). In that sense, the models in group) consciousness matter – and that, from authoritarian rule can occur as a result Ansell and Samuels (2010) and Boix (2003) because they affect the costs of each side, of military defeat (Argentina 1983), the are extremely similar.8 Ansell and Samuels’ they affect the probabilities of different death of a dictator (Spain 1975), a peaceful results on the growing probability of partial regime outcomes. It is, however, true that revolution (Portugal 1975), a “mismanaged” democracy as the process of industrialization I treat those factors as exogenous variables. referendum (Chile 1989) or the collapse of takes off go in the same direction. No model can endogenize everything. the occupying power (the Baltic countries in 1991). Whether democracy emerges This similarity implies that, as Haggard Political Process and survives has to be set in the context and Kaufman (2012) acknowledge, class- RMD are also depicted as painting a of the broad economic and organizational based and sector-based models are not very narrow account of social conflict parameters of the model. Thus, Haggard and incompatible with each other. Instead, “as a function of a small but monolithic Kaufman (2012) is extremely informative sector-based models (or what Ansell and elite’s fear of the impoverished multitude” as a study of transitional paths and is very Samuels define as “intra-elite” conflict) are an (Ansell and Samuels 2010, p. 1544) and of valuable as a call to develop models that extension of the general model of democracy political transitions as events where “elites integrate the process of transition itself. as equilibrium. Sectoral (intra-elite) conflict 5. Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, David A. But their work is less convincing as a will take place when wealthy sectors are Siegel, and Michael M. Ting, A Behavioral Theory critique of the theoretical core of RMD. differentiated by income and type of assets of Elections (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011); Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution (non-fixed versus fixed) and when non- (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 50. The depiction of RMD as a clash between wealthy strata are not mobilized. If the latter the “elite” and the “masses” is also reductive are mobilized, political conflict may be cross- 6. Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups(Cambridge, MA: in a second sense. The economy in Boix class (a sector of the wealthy and all or part Harvard University Press, 1965); Edward Palmer (2003) is thought of as a distribution of of the non-wealthy allied against the other, Thompson,The Making of the English Working Class (New York: Vintage Books, 1963); Ira Katznelson individuals (heterogeneous in incomes) 8. A minor point is that income inequality is in part and Aristide R. Zolberg, Working-Class Formation: 7. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market: based on land rents and therefore does not capture Ninteenth-Century Patterns in Western Europe and the Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and well the inequality generated by capital returns and United States (Princeton: Princeton University Press, Latin America (Cambridge: Cambridge University labor wages. Hence, Ansell and Samuels should have 1986). Press, 1991). used fixed vs. non-fixed assets inequality. 14 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013 Boix

mainly depending on asset specificity) or RMD. RMD endogenize the tax rate to in which total economic resources are class-based (as in the initial two-class model). the distribution of income and predict stagnant and power is concentrated in the that taxes will not be high in unequal hands of an elite minority who use it to Underlying Tax Model societies because net payers will block them. maximize their political rents.” Political The choice of the median voter tax model liberalization then shifts the distribution developed by Romer (1975) and Meltzer Ansell and Samuels (2010) point out that of income. (What they do not endogenize, and Richards (1981) has been rather RMD assume tax rates will never be lower however, is the power ratio itself.) An controversial.9 The model is much more than 0. This assumption can be relaxed. In their alternative to this linear relationship flexible that some concede: one can amend formal exploration of the democratization between political power and income is to it in multiple ways to introduce public of 19th-century Britain, Justman and consider a model where the distribution of goods spending, non-distortionary taxes, Gradstein (1999) allow the rich to tax the income is the joint product of economic individuals having different beliefs about poor (when the latter are disenfranchised).10 technologies and political institutions. This the effects of taxes, etc. The fact that the This may make the model too simplistic is what I attempt to do in Boix (2013).11 model is empirically wrong – in terms of in the following sense: both assets and predicting that taxes would be higher in income become wholly determined by the Carles Boix is the Robert Garrett more unequal societies – is what justifies power ratio (between classes). As Justman Professor of Politics and Public Affairs

9. The initial two-class model was used by Boix, and Gradstein (p. 111) write, “preindustrial in the Department of Politics and the Democracy and Redistribution, and Carles Boix, levels of inequality reflect an equilibrium Woodrow Wilson School of Public and “Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in 10. Moshe Justman and Mark Gradstein, “The International Affairs at Princeton University. the Contemporary World,” World Politics 60 (April Industrial Revolution, Political Transition, and the 2008): 390-437; Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard, “A Subsequent Decline in Inequality in 19th-Century Rational Theory of the Size of Government,” ournalJ Britain,” Explorations in Economic History 36 (April of Political Economy 89 (October 1981): 914-927. 1999): 109-127. 11. Boix, “Political Order and Inequality.”

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Acemoglu et. al, continued (continued from page 2)

rich versus poor, but for example based have to deal with complicated issues of regression. The empirical work of Acemoglu on ethnic, religious or regional cleavages, identification. For example, autocracies et al. showed that some of the most famous it was not necessarily true that increasing which were unequal no doubt differ in empirical results in the literature, such inequality, in the sense of a higher Gini many others ways from autocracies which as the correlation between income per- coefficient, would exacerbate conflict are equal, and to test causal hypotheses capita and democratic consolidation, were between groups. It might just result in about the impact of inequality on regime not robust to controlling for omitted increased redistribution within groups. transition it is necessary to control in variables. This paper went even further More generally, though there is now some way for these omitted variables. than fixed effects models by providing a full convincing econometric evidence for the It is also necessary to control properly identification strategy using instrumental importance of the central mechanisms of for common trends influencing the variables, an exercise that confirmed the Acemoglu and Robinson’s early work,2 still, variables to avoid the problem of ‘spurious basic fixed effects findings. This project as emphasized by Haggard and Kaufman regression’. Since democracy tends to also revealed that there was no robust (2012), there may be different mechanisms move in waves and many other variables relationship between inequality and either that lead to democratization and these can such as GDP per-capita are correlated the creation or consolidation of democracy. have different comparative statics from across countries, this is a potent issue here. those presented in Acemoglu and Robinson Other studies have since found different (2000, 2001). For instance, in Lizzeri and Since this early work a great deal of research things, but to do so they have deviated Persico (2004) democratization can occur has gone into investigating empirically from the econometric approach of because political competition with a limited the factors that lead to democratization Acemoglu et al in significant ways. For franchise leads to clientelistic outcomes that and democratic consolidation. In largely example, Esptein et al. (2006) presented are inefficient for at least a sub-set of the unpublished work which accompanied evidence that was consistent with the elite.3 Extending voting rights can induce Acemoglu et al. (2008, 2009),5 the authors inverted-U shape hypothesis of Acemoglu more efficient non-clientelistic competition found no robust evidence that inequality and Robinson (2001). Houle (2009) found over public goods that is favored by these influences either democratizations or that while inequality has no impact on elites. Depending on the decision structure democratic consolidation. The innovation of democratization, higher inequality reduces within elites, democratization can occur this empirical work is that it adopted for the the probability that a democracy will stay for very different reasons than those first time standard panel data econometric democratic. Yet neither paper made any developed by Acemoglu and Robinson.4 techniques to control for omitted variables attempt to control for omitted variable with country fixed effects and common bias, for example using country fixed These theoretical extensions of the basic trends with time effects. The importance effects. Therefore, it is quite likely that these model suggested that it was unlikely that of the fixed effects methodology is that it findings are driven by omitted variables and the simple comparative statics of inequality focuses on the ‘within variation’ and asks, thus do not represent causal relationships suggested by the early work would be in this context: as a country becomes more between inequality and regime transition. found in the data. Moreover, even if one or less unequal, does that induce changes Freeman and Quinn (2012) moved beyond found these in a convincing way one would in the extent to which it is democratic? By studies of the average effect of inequality 2. See for instance in Toke S. Aidt and Peter S. focusing on this variation one mitigates on regime transitions investigating whether Jensen, “Workers of the World Unite! Franchise the biases than come from examining or not there are heterogeneous effects Extension and the Threat of Revolution in Europe, 1820-1938,” http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/aidt/ the cross-sectional (between) variation of inequality that depend on the extent papers/web/workers/workers.pdf, 2012. that is mired in unobservable differences of globalization.6 They do claim to find between countries. The importance of robust effects of inequality on the change 3. Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, “Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic the inclusion of time effects is that they in the polity score, the sign of which is Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule,” control for common trends amongst the American Political Science Review 106 (August 6. David L. Epstein, Robert Bates, Jack Goldstone, 2012): 495-516; Alessandro Lizzeri and Nicola variables mitigating the danger of spurious Ida Kristensen, and Sharyn O’Halloran, “Democratic Persico, “Why Did the Elites Extend the Suffrage? Transitions,” American Journal of Political Science Democracy and the Scope of Government, with an 5. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James 50 ( July 2006): 551–69; Christian Houle, Application to Britain’s Age of Reform,’’ Quarterly A. Robinson, and Pierre Yared, “Income and “Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Journal of Economics 119 (2004): 707-765. Democracy”, American Economic Review 98 ( June Harms Consolidation but Does Not Affect 2008): 808-842; Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Democratization,” World Politics 61(October 4. See also Humberto Llavador and Robert J. Oxoby, James A. Robinson, and Pierre Yared, “Reevaluating 2009): 589–622; John R. Freeman and Dennis P. “Partisan Competition, Growth, and the Franchise,” the Modernization Hypothesis,” Journal of Monetary Quinn, “The Economic Origins of Democracy Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (2005): 1155- Economics 56 (November 2009): 1043-1058. See, Reconsidered,” American Political Science Review 106 1192. however, Table 5 in this essay. (February 2012): 58–80.

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conditional on measures of globalization. variable bias. In particular, their procedure armed actors, violence, lobbying, and Yet, their preferred specification does meant that they could not examine other means of capturing the party not include time effects to account for the more interesting ‘within variation’ system) in order to continue to control the common trending factors, an omission through examining whether or not when political process. If so, we would not see which Acemoglu et. al. (2009) showed is a country democratized, or the reverse, an impact of democratization on public highly significant in this context, given public policies moved in specific directions. policy, redistribution and inequality. that democracy tends to trend at the world level. Their paper also uses software In Acemoglu et al. (2013) we examine the 2. Directors Law. Consistent with to interpolate missing inequality data, a impact of democratization on public policies Stigler’s ‘Director’s Law’ (1970), procedure that tends to artificially lower and inequality using the most appealing democracy may transfer political power the standard errors of their estimations, econometric model - a cross-national to the middle class rather than the which also pushes them towards finding panel data with country fixed effects and poor. If so, redistribution may increase significant effects. The omission of time time effects.8 Our study uses a theoretical and inequality may be curtailed only effects is a common feature of papers that framework that recognizes that the simple if the middle class is in favor of such claim to find significant effects of measures predictions of Meltzer and Richard (1981) redistribution. For example, Aidt et on inequality on measures of democracy.7 and Acemoglu and Robinson (2000, 2001), al.(2009) showed that local franchise that democratization decreases inequality expansion in 19th century Britain We believe therefore that the basic though may be influenced by mechanisms this from elites to the middle class often unfortunately largely unpublished findings research did not consider. This happens reduced expenditure on local public of the Acemoglu, et. al. (2008, 2009) for some of the same reasons we discussed goods since the middle class bore the project, that there is no robust causal above when we argued that the impact brunt of property taxes that financed relationship between inequality and regime of inequality on democratization is them. In their model an expansion of transition, remain substantially unaltered. likely more complex than the initial voting rights from the elite, by reducing models allowed for, but in addition public good provision and taxes on the This analysis still leaves open one interesting we make several specific arguments. middle class, can increase inequality.9 empirical question latent in Acemoglu and Robinson (2000, 2001) and indeed 1. Captured Democracy. Even though 3. Inequality-Increasing Market in Meltzer and Richard (1981). Does democracy clearly changes the Opportunities. Autocracy may exclude democratization tend to reduce inequality? distribution of de jure power in society a large fraction of the population from A seminal paper by Rodrik (1999) claimed (as argued, for instance, in Acemoglu and productive occupations (e.g., skilled that it did and that the share of wages in Robinson, 2006), policy outcomes and occupations) and entrepreneurship national income was systematically higher inequality depend not just on the de jure (including lucrative contracts), as in democracies. But a prior question would but also on the de facto distribution of Apartheid South Africa or the former be: does democratization have in reality power. Acemoglu and Robinson (2008) Soviet Union did both internally the type of impact on public policy that argue that, under certain circumstances, and in Eastern Europe after 1945. it does in these models? One much cited those who see their de jure power eroded To the extent that there is significant paper, by Gil, Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin by democratization may sufficiently heterogeneity within this population, (2004) claimed in fact that there was no increase their investments in de facto the freedom to take part in economic significant relationship between measures power (e.g., via control of local law activities on a more level playing field of democracy, such as the Polity score, and enforcement, mobilization of non-state with the previous elite may actually

public policy variables such as the size of 8. Allan M. Meltzer and Scott F. Richard, “A increase inequality within the excluded government tax revenues relative to GDP, Rational Theory of the Size of Government,”Journal or repressed group and the entire society. or the amount of social spending relative of Political Economy 89 (October 1981): 914-927; It may also lead changes in public policy Dani Rodrik, “Democracies Pay Higher Wages,” to GDP. Yet their paper used averaged Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1999): 707-738; 9. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, data to examine the pure cross-sectional Ricard Gil, Casey B. Mulligan, and Xavier Sala-i- “Persistence of Power, Elites and Institutions,” Martin (2004) “Do Democracies Have Different American Economic Review 98 (March 2008): 267- relationships in the data. This setup creates Public Policies than Nondemocracies?” Journal of 293; George J. Stigler, “Director’s Law of Public severe concerns both about measurement Economic Perspectives 18 (Winter 2004): 51-74; Income Redistribution,” Journal of Law and Economics error (from the averaging) and omitted Daron Acemoglu, Suresh Naidu, Pascual Restrepo, 13 (April 1970): 1-10; Toke S. Aidt, Martin J. and James A. Robinson, “Democracy, Inequality and Daunton, and Jaysri Dutta, “The Retrenchment 7.For example Ben Ansell and David Samuels, Public Policy,” forthcoming in Anthony B. Atkinson Hypothesis and the Extension of the Franchise “Inequality and Democratization: A Contractarian and François Bourguignon, eds., The Handbook of in England and Wales,” The Economic Journal 120 Approach,” Comparative Political Studies 43(December Income Distribution (Amsterdam, North-Holland, (September 2010): 990-1020. 2010): 1543–74. 2013).

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Figure 1. Change in taxes as a percentage of GDP between 1975 and 2000, against the change in the Freedom House democracy index in the same period.

in democracy that also affect policy and redistribution. To get a feel for these results, Figure 1 plots the change in the raw Freedom House score between 1975 and 2000 (since this is clearer than our 0-1 measure of democracy) against the change in tax revenues as a percentage of GDP on the vertical axis. This figure is useful since it represents a simple way of looking at the ‘within variation’ (at least in the absence of any covariates). The figure shows that there is a clearly visible positive slope indicating the estimated relationship consistent with the hypothesis that as countries become democratic, they expand their tax revenues. Figure 2 presents an ‘event-study’ picture which shows the dynamics of taxation around democracy. Here we take the last to diverge from those predicted by the government revenues as a percentage of democratization event of each country and simple models of democratization. GDP). The long-run effect of democracy, average them. This figure is conditional In the paper we develop a new consistent in our preferred specification, is about on the lagged dependent variable, country definition of democratization based on a 5% point increase in tax revenues as a fixed effects and time effect. It shows the Freedom House and Polity indices, building fraction of GDP. These patterns are robust dynamics of tax revenues as a percentage of on the work by Papaioannou and to a variety of different estimates and GDP around the democratization, which we Siourounis (2008).10 One of the problems controls for immediate determinants of normalize so that its pre-democracy average of the raw indices is the significant democracy such as social unrest, war, and is zero. This clearly shows that there is a measurement error, which creates spurious the stock of education, yet there may still sustained positive increase in tax revenues movements in democracy when none exist unobserved determinants of changes after a democratization whose magnitude exists in reality. We attempt to minimize the influence of such measurement error Figure 2. Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP around a democratization. by using the information from both the Freedom House and Polity datasets and focusing only on democratization (and reversals) that are not fully reversed within a year. This leads to a 0-1 measure of democracy for 170 countries annually from 1960 to 2010. We also pay special attention to modeling the dynamics of our outcomes of interest, taxes as a percentage of GDP and various measures of inequality.

Our empirical investigation uncovers a number of interesting patterns. First, we find a robust and quantitatively large effect of democracy on tax revenues as a percentage of GDP (and also on total 10. Elias Papaioannou and Gregorios Siourounis, “Democratisation and Growth,” The Economic Journal 118 (October 2008): 1520-1551.

18 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013 Acemoglu et. al

data we use every five years, the standard Figure 3. Change in the Gini coefficient for net income between 1975 and approach with a dynamic panel, his main 2000, against the change in the Freedom House democracy index in the same period. finding disappears. It also disappears even with his own specification when we use the more complete and updated version of the data on wages (which he did not have available at the time he wrote). Third, we find an effect of democracy on secondary schooling investments and the extent of structural transformation (e.g., an impact on the non-agricultural share of employment and the non-agricultural share of output). How could it be that democracy leads to higher taxes and more education and possibly structural change but has no impact on inequality? This is an issue that requires a great deal more research than in Acemoglu et al. (2013), but all three of the above mechanisms could be at play. The fact that policy clearly changes after democratization seems less consistent with ideas about captured democracy, though it could be that while elites cannot stop taxation, they increases over time (eventually reaching he averaged the data, and second, that he can manipulate how it is spent. The findings 5%). By 15 years after a democratization used an old version of the World Bank do seem more consistent with Director’s the standard error bands exclude zero. data on wages. If instead of averaging the Law and Stigler’s claim that democracy

Second, however, and contrary to Rodrik Figure 4. Gini coefficient for net income around a democratization. (1999), we find no robust effect of democracy on any measure of inequality. Even though some selected specifications do show a small, marginally significant effect, these are not robust. This may reflect the poorer quality of inequality data. But we also suspect it may be related to the more complex theoretical relationships between democracy and inequality pointed out above. The absence of a relationship between the changes in democracy (Freedom House) and the change in the Gini coefficient 1975-200 is evident from Figure 3. Figure 4 is an analogous event-study figure. It shows that after a democratization there does seem to be a fall in inequality but it is not statistically distinguishable from zero.

Revisiting Rodrik’s findings we show that while his results do still hold with our measure of democracy (significant at the 7% level), they are driven by several important things. First of all, the fact that

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favors the middle class and therefore does Daron Acemoglu is Elizabeth and James of Government at Harvard University not generate the type of pro-poor or pro- Killian Professor of Economics at the and a faculty associate at the Institute median voter policies hypothesized by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Suresh for Quantitative Social Science and the early theoretical work. It could also be Naidu is assistant professor of economics Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. the case that inequality increasing market and public affairs at Columbia University. opportunities are at work with taxation Pascual Restrepo is a research assistant at the and redistribution taking place but their Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia. effect on inequality being swamped. James Robinson is David Florence Professor

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Houle

Houle, continued (continued from page 3)

than 7,000 observations. This accounts are at least three reasons why inequality to respond to changes in inequality by for nearly all countries during the period is unlikely to have a substantial effect on adopting democracy. Even if inequality were under study, and the dataset is (basically) democratization through the mechanisms to affect the likelihood of democratization, complete. Once I use different measures described by previous redistributive its effect should be weak. I thus expect of inequality, account for endogeneity theories. First, these mechanisms rest inequality to bear little relationship and impute missing observations my on the assumption that democratization to the probability of democratization. hypothesis is supported empirically: follows a single path, in which democracy inequality reduces the likelihood that is initially demanded by the population but Do arguments linking inequality to democracy endures but is unrelated to eventually conceded by the ruling elite, i.e. consolidation suffer from the same the likelihood of democratization itself. it is driven from below. However, in reality, problems as those linking inequality to democratization is often driven from above, democratization? No. Transitions away from THEORY for example through intra-elite competition. democracy differ in at least two fundamental In this note, I will focus on two theories There is thus a large group of transitions ways from transitions to democracy. First, about how inequality – more precisely, for which these theories do not apply. they involve different groups of actors. interclass inequality – affects regime While democratizations may be initiated changes. Both rest on a redistributive Second, even for transitions from below, by the elite or the masses, democratic approach, meaning that the effect of their predictions are unlikely to hold. breakdowns are almost always caused by inequality is driven by its effect on Contrary to what most scholars have the elite or the military, not the masses. preferences over redistribution among claimed, inequality actually has two different social classes. First, Boix, among opposite, potentially offsetting, effects Second, and most importantly, transitions others, argues that inequality harms both on democratization. On the one hand, to and away from democracies involve democratization and consolidation. The inequality makes democracy more costly different processes. On the one hand, intuition is that when inequality increases, for the elites by increasing redistribution. democratization from below is an the ruling elite is less likely to concede On the other hand, inequality increases interactive process between the elite and democracy, because it fears redistribution the demand for regime change from the the masses, in which the former respond under democracy. Similarly, the elite is more population by increasing potential gains to the demands of the latter. On the other likely to stage coups in unequal democracies, from redistribution or expropriation. hand, democratic breakdown is a unilateral because it wants to prevent redistribution. The overall effect is thus ambiguous. process, in which one group (usually the Acemoglu and Robinson do account elite or the military) directly seizes power Second, Acemoglu and Robinson agree that for both effects. However, their findings without necessarily having the approval of inequality harms consolidation but argue depend on specific assumptions about the other groups. In the words of Acemoglu that inequality relates to democratization discontinuity of the effect of inequality and Robinson, “the move from democracy through an inverted U-shaped relationship. on the cost of maintaining an autocracy.3 to dictatorship is almost never consensual.”4 In equal autocracies, the population does not demand democracy because it has Third, the population faces a collective The asymmetry between the two little to gain in terms of redistribution. At action problem when mobilizing to transition processes has key implications intermediate levels of inequality, however, replace an autocracy by a democracy, for the relationship between inequality the population has incentives to demand since democracy is a public good. Existing and consolidation. First of all, since democracy. At the same time, the ruling theories expect inequality to affect most democratic breakdowns follow elites are unwilling to use repression, because democratization by determining the a single path in which the military/ redistribution is relatively cheap; and so likelihood of the population rising against elite unilaterally seize power, theories they democratize. But when inequality is the regime. But, if the masses are unable trying to explain them – contrary to high, the elites opt for repression, because to mobilize, the elites have no incentive those concerned with democratization the cost of redistribution is too high. 3. Carles Boix, Democracy and Redistribution – can be applied to almost all cases. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003); Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, Economic 4. Acemoglu and Robinson, Economic Origins, 225. I argue that inequality harms consolidation Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (New York: The masses can be involved during transitions away but has no effect on democratization. There Cambridge University Press, 2006). See Houle, from democracy, notably by responding negatively (or “Inequality and Democracy,” for more detail on the positively) to coups. However, their consentment is procedures. assumptions made in Acemoglu and Robinson. not necessary for a democratic breakdown to occur.

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In addition, whereas inequality has two interclass inequality, and is conceptually variables as in my previous work: GDP opposite effects on democratization, it similar to the surplus-value of Karl Marx. per capita, growth, an oil exporter dummy only has a negative effect on consolidation. variable, the proportion of the population The two effects of inequality on I use an extension of the capital share that is Muslim, Protestant or Catholic, democratization are caused by the fact that dataset assembled by Ortega and Rodriguez ethnic and religious fractionalization, democracy is demanded by the population that I presented in Houle.5 I imputed the the number of past transitions, a dummy but, in the end, conceded by the elite. By missing values for nearly all countries. variable for countries that did not exist contrast, democratic breakdowns result For each missing observation, twenty-five prior to 1946, a dummy for former from the direct seizure of power by the values are predicted. This enables me to British colonies, and the proportion of elite. Because the agreement of the masses account for the level of uncertainty of each countries worldwide that are democracies.7 is not required, the effect of inequality on imputed observation during the estimation its willingness to concede dictatorship process. Three types of evidence are used EMPIRICAL RESULTS has little impact. Inequality mainly affects to impute missing observations: previous I test the relationship between inequality democratic breakdowns by increasing inequality levels of the same country; levels and democracy using dynamic probit the cost of redistribution to the elite. of inequality of neighboring countries models. These models estimate the Therefore, one should expect that when during the same year; and other indicators probability of countries with a certain inequality increases the elite are more of inequality for the same country-year regime (in the current period) transiting likely to wage coups against democracies. (e.g., Gini coefficients). The intuition for to a new regime in the next period. One using the inequality level of neighbors is advantage with this estimation technique is Finally, collective action problems do not that the level of inequality of a country that it enables us to distinguish between the significantly reduce the capacity of the depends mostly on its factor endowments. effect of inequality on democratization and elite to mobilize, since the elite form a on consolidation. Column 1 of Table 1 tests much smaller group than the population. Because countries that are neighbors are the hypothesis of a negative monotonic Moreover, installing a new authoritarian likely to share similar factor endowments relationship, advanced notably by Boix, using regime provides specific benefits to those they also have similar levels of inequality. capital shares. It shows that higher capital that take part in the coup. Contrary to Moreover, neighbors are likely to share shares are actually associated with larger transitions to democracy, transitions away similar colonial experiences or to have been probability of democratization, though the from democracy do not pose a severe affected by the same historical events (e.g., relationship is not statistically significant. collective action problem for the group the establishment of communist regimes initiating the process. Therefore, I expect in Eastern Europe).6 Most countries that Table 1: Dynamic Probit Estimations of inequality to have a strong negative remain missing after the multiple imputation the Effect of Inequality on the Probability effect on the survival of democracies. are Islands (mostly Pacific Islands). of Transitions to and away from Democracy

DATA The second measure of inequality used is the Model 2 of Table 1 estimates the non- The unit of analysis is the country-year. income Gini coefficients of the Estimation linear model of Acemoglu and Robinson The main dataset contains more than 7,000 of the Household Inequality and Inequity by adding capital share squared. The observations and covers 183 countries (EHII) constructed by the University predictions of Acemoglu and Robinson, between 1960 and 2008. To determine of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP). according to which the relationship is whether a country is democratic or The dataset includes more than 3,500 inverted U-shaped, would be supported if autocratic, I use the regime type dataset of observations on 147 countries between the coefficient on capital share is positive and Cheibub et al., which extends the dataset 1963 and 2002. I use the same control the one on capital share squared negative.8 of Przeworski et al until 2006. I use two As shown in model 2, both coefficients turn 5. Jose A. Cheibub, Jennifer Gandhi, and James R. main measures of inequality. First, I use Vreeland, “Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited,” out to have the opposite sign, although the capital share of the value added in Public Choice 143 (April 2010): 67-101; Przeworski 7. University of Texas Inequality Project, Estimated et al., Democracy and Development; Daniel Ortega and Household Income Inequality (EHII) Dataset, production. This gives the proportion of Francisco Rodriguez. “Are Capital Shares Higher in Available at http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/data.html; the value created within specific firms than Poor Countries? Evidence from Industrial Surveys,” Houle, “Inequality and Democracy.” Control variables Unpublished (Corporación Andina de Fomento are taken from Przeworski et al., Democracy and accrues to the owners of these specific firms, (CAF) and IESA, and Wesleyan University, 2006); Development, and Cheibub et al., “Democracy and as opposed to the laborers. Low capital Houle, “Does Inequality Harm.” Dictatorship.” shares indicate low levels of inequality. 6. See Houle, “Does Inequality Harm,” for more 8. Boix, Democracy and Redistribution; Acemoglu and The capital share is thus a measure of detail. Robinson, Economic Origins.

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Table 1: Dynamic Probit Estimations of the Effect of Inequality on the Probability of Transitions to and away from Democracy Transition to Democracy Transition to Autocracy

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Cap. Shares .009 -.062 .04 .018 .102

(.006) (.05) (.032) (.008)** (.014)***

Cap. Shares sq. .0005

(.0004)

Gini -.007 .102 .06

(.015) (.1) (.02)***

Gini sq. -.001

(.001)

GDP pc .004 .015 .023 .019 -.165 -.492 -.464 -.066

(.06) (.06) (.095) (.093) (.115) (.107)*** (.189)** (.279)

Growth -.01 -.01 -.015 -.016 -.017 -.02 -.037 -.01

(.004)*** (.004)*** (.006)*** (.006)*** (.007)*** (.008)** (.013)*** (.012)

Oil -.5 -.539 -.675 -.659 -.145 .126 .112 -.402

(.25)** (.242)** (.384)* (.369)* (.425) (.313) (.407) (.358)

Muslim -.002 -.002 -.005 -.005 -.002 -.0009 -.005 -.003

(.002) (.002) (.005) (.005) (.004) (.003) (.004) (.004)

Protestant .0006 .0005 -.003 -.004 .01 -.0007 -.0009 .015

(.003) (.004) (.006) (.006) (.009) (.004) (.006) (.008)*

Catholic .002 .002 -.001 -.001 -.006 -.003 -.001 -.001

(.002) (.002) (.005) (.005) (.005) (.003) (.005) (.004)

Ethnic fract. -.0006 -.0003 -.002 -.002 -.003 -.004 -.009 .005

(.002) (.002) (.003) (.003) (.003) (.004) (.005)* (.007)

Religious fract. .002 .002 .007 .006 .013 -.001 -.004 .02

(.003) (.003) (.006) (.006) (.009) (.004) (.007) (.011)*

# Past Break. .277 .276 .258 .257 .046 .178 .142 -.145

(.053)*** (.054)*** (.106)** (.104)** (.154) (.065)*** (.099) (.118)

New Country -.151 -.127 -.198 -.218 -.405 .167 .293 .666

(.136) (.138) (.215) (.207) (.229)* (.2) (.307) (.504)

Former British -.058 -.061 -.022 -.02 -.042 -.687 -1.185 -.09

(.132) (.131) (.189) (.188) (.186) (.246)*** (.371)*** (.354)

23 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013 Houle

both are statistically insignificant. A Wald It is possible that inequality in neighboring variable strategy as in model 5. Once test demonstrates that the two coefficients states affect the regimes of neighbors, which again, results suggest that inequality also fail to reach joint significance. in turn influences the domestic political harms the consolidation of democracy. Columns 3 and 4 redo models 1 and 2 regime. If that were the case, the instruments but with the Gini coefficients instead of would not be exogenous. Therefore, in order CONCLUSION capital shares. Results are unchanged. to account for this potential mechanism I This note has argued that inequality does control for the proportion of neighbors that not affect democratization but harms One potential problem with the analysis are democratic instead of controlling for consolidation of democracies. These presented thus far is that it does not the proportion of democracies worldwide results suggest that the factors that affect account for endogeneity, particularly as in the previous regressions. Results, the establishment of democracies may be reverse causation. In fact, in inequality reported in column 5, are unchanged. very different from those that affect their theories of democratization, inequality consolidation. In fact, the empirical analysis affects regime transition precisely because Column 6 estimates the effect of inequality presented above finds that many factors it affects the incentives of different social on the likelihood that a democracy breaks other than inequality also seem to affect classes to control redistributive policies, and down and transitions to autocracy. Positive these two transition processes differently. thus change the inequality level. Moreover, coefficients signify that the associated Of course, this idea is not completely country-specific factors could affect both the independent variables increase the new. Already, O’Donnell and Schmitter, likelihood of regime change and inequality; probability of backsliding to dictatorship. among others, argued that “political and hence creating omitted variable bias. As expected, inequality increases the social processes are neither symmetric likelihood that a democracy breaks nor reversible. What brings down a Column 5 reproduces model 1 but using down and the relationship is statistically democracy is not the inverse of those an instrumental variable approach. It uses significant at the five percent level.9 factors that bring down an authoritarian the level of inequality of neighboring As shown in model 7, these results regime.”10 However, such insights have yet countries as an instrument for the domestic are unchanged when inequality is to be fully integrated in the empirical and level of inequality. As I argued in Houle, instead measured with Gini indexes. theoretical literatures on regime changes. inequality tends to be clustered across Column 8 uses the same instrumental neighbors, notably because they share 9. See Houle, “Does Inequality Harm,” regarding Christian Houle is assistant professor of column 5. The results are unchanged when imputed factor endowments. Basic tests show that capital shares are also included. Regressions political science at Michigan State University. the inequality level of neighbors is indeed using instrumental variables are run separately a strong instrument for domestic inequality for democratization and consolidation, which explains the lower number of observations (e.g., levels (F-statistic of 17.84). Since Houle only autocracies are included in column 5). This is uses the inequality level of neighbors to done in order to limit the number of instruments needed and does not affect the validity of the results. impute missing values, I only use the non- The results presented in column 6 are robust to the imputed capital shares in the estimation use of only non-imputed observations (see Houle, reported in column 5 (and column 8). “Inequality and Democracy”). Moreover, the results 10. Guillermo A. O’Donnell and Philippe C. are unchanged when the regressions only cover the Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: period from 1960 to 2000. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1986).

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Juan Linz Obituary

Linz Obituary, continued (continued from page 3)

Lazarsfeld, Robert Lynd, and Kingsley Studies (1973-1974), President of the come across Linz early in his own graduate Davis. Linz formed an especially close World Association of Public Opinion career at Columbia and to have the immense relationship with Seymour Martin Lipset, Research (1974-1976), and was a member intellectual and personal reward of working under whose supervision he would write of the Executive Committee of the ISA as a co-author with Linz for thirty-five years a nine-hundred-plus page dissertation (1974-1982) as well as its Scientific on books and articles. Jeff Miley was Linz’ consisting of a systematic dissection of The Committee (1974-1978). He was also second to last PhD and asked to help in the Social Bases of West German Politics. Even active in the International Political Science selection, translation, and introductions to before officially finishing the dissertation, Association and the American Political the sections of the seven volumes of Linz’s Linz would also compile a “propositional Science Association, and served for many selected works. inventory” and co-author with Lipset a years on the Scientific Committee for the two-volume manuscript The Social Bases of Center for Advanced Social Studies at the Linz’s impact as a teacher stretched well Political Diversity in Western Democracies in Instituto Juan March in Madrid. beyond his official students; those who his capacity as Lipset’s research assistant. It considered themselves such numbered was never published but widely recognized When he died, Linz was Sterling Professor many, many more. He and his wife Rocío by Lipset and others, as a main source for Emeritus of Political and Social Sciences de Terán were famous among students Lipset’s own seminal work, Political Man. at Yale. He was much decorated, having for their extreme generosity in terms of received many of his profession’s most time and attention, and especially for the A grant from the SSRC’s Committee coveted prizes. He was elected member of hospitality with which the couple opened in Comparative Politics allowed Linz to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences the doors and spare bedroom, of their home return to Spain in the Spring of 1958 to in 1976. He was awarded honorary doctoral in Hamden, Connecticut to so many. carry out field research for a study of the degrees from five universities; the University Franco regime, an experience which led to of Granada (1976), Georgetown University Two excellent sources on Linz’s thought and the publication of Linz’s first classic article, (1987), the Autonomous University of writings are his sixty page interview with “An Authoritarian Regime: The Case Madrid (1992), the Phillips-Universität of Richard Snyder in Munch and Snyder’s, of Spain.” Throughout his career, Spain Marburg (1992), the University of Oslo Passion, Craft and Method in Comparative would command his attention as a crucial (2000), and the University of the Basque Politics, and the 50 page intellectual case in comparative perspective. Linz did Country (2002)]. In 1987, he was the biography, done with Linz’s collaboration, more than any other Spanish scholar of his recipient of Spain’s most prestigious Premio by José Ramón Montero and Jeff Miley in generation to put his country at the very Príncipe de Asturias; and in 1996, he won their just published seven volume selected center of international debates in the social the University of Uppsala’s Johan Skytte works of Linz, published in Spanish as Juan sciences, especially those in comparative Prize, perhaps the closest thing in Political J. Linz. Obras Escogidas by the Centro de politics about regime types, breakdowns, Science to a Nobel Prize. Estudios Políticos y Constitucionales in and transitions, as well as nationalism, all Madrid. the while challenging prevalent stereotypes From the start of his career through the and “terrible simplifications.” In the process, very end of his life, Linz was a devoted Linz was an irreplaceable mentor and a he directed and conducted a plethora of and beloved teacher. He supervised 65 close friend to innumerable senior and pioneering survey research. dissertations on 31 different countries junior scholars throughout the world. He spanning the entire globe. Several of will be sorely missed, and will certainly not Linz was an enthusiastic and influential his students were political scientists and be forgotten. participant in a host of professional sociologists who would soon become social scientific associations. He was a eminent in their fields, such as Richard Alfred Stepan, Columbia University and Jeff founding member of the International Hamilton, Kenneth Erickson, Arturo Miley, Cambridge University Sociological Association’s Committee of Valenzuela, Ezra Suleiman, Jan Gross, John Political Sociology (CPS), alongside Lipset, Stephens, Robert Fishman, Houchang Raymond Aron, Shmuel Esienstadt, and Chehabi, and Miguel Centeno. The authors Stein Rokkan, among others. He served of this obituary both have the honor to as President of the CPS (1971-79), as count ourselves among this “Linzian” family. President of the Council for European Alfred Stepan had the good fortune to first

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2014 APSA Annual Meeting: Chris outcomes that objectively make them drawing on data from both the U.S. and Reenock (Florida State University), our materially worse off. Specifically, she focuses South Africa. section’s program chair for the 2014 annual on three major puzzles in political science meeting, will soon begin reviewing all the and comparative politics: In South Africa she is able to show that where paper and panel proposals submitted by the social status concerns have been triggered December 15 deadline. We look forward to First, why do democracies sometimes fail to citizens are more likely to oppose Pareto learning of his decisions next spring, and to meet the needs of their citizens, even when improving provision of low-income housing, seeing many of you at the 2014 meeting in there are Pareto-improving opportunities and as a result, such housing is undersupplied Washington, DC. that states could readily pursue? while resources for constructing low-income housing go unused. Comparative Democratization Section Second, why do citizens sometimes vote for Welcomes New Officers: Jan Teorell redistribution schemes that are in conflict Drawing on attitudinal and demographic became the section’s new president and with their material interests? survey data from both countries, she Monika Nalepa the new treasurer at the demonstrates that, consistent with her theory, section’s business meeting in Chicago. Many Finally, why do certain citizens choose to social status concerns shape respondents’ thanks to Steph Haggard and Amaney participate in protests and other forms of attitudes towards redistribution. In South Jamal for serving as president and treasurer political collective action when they could Africa, where inequality among neighboring (respectively) for the last two years! free-ride? co-ethnics has dramatically increased the correlation between within-group status and Comparative Democratization Section Dr. McClendon argues that individuals care support for distribution is large and negative. Award Winners: about more than simply maximizing their Juan Linz Dissertation Award: Gwyneth material well-being. Specifically, they care In the U.S. case, where status concerns are H. McClendon (Yale University) for her deeply about their relative status vis-à-vis salient the degree to which the median voter dissertation “The Politics of Envy and others within their same or similar group is economically distant from rich group Esteem in Two Democracies.” (for example, neighbors or co-ethnics). members while also close to poor group Envy, spite, and the desire for esteem can be members correlates with the median voter’s This year’s award committee included powerful motivations for behavior. High- support for anti-redistribution policies. Allen Hicken (University of Michigan) within groups status has distinct value, and in (chair), Daniel Gingerich (University of certain contexts, citizens will pursue it, even Finally, using a field experiment she finds Virginia), and Nic Cheeseman (Oxford at the expense of their material interests. evidence that the promise of in-group University). esteem induced higher rates of attendance at The dissertation takes great care to define, a rally for gay marriage in New Jersey. Committee Remarks on the Award both intuitively and formally, what is meant Winners: by within-group status concerns, and to In short, the committee agreed that Dr. “This year the committee for Juan Linz distinguish this concept (theoretically and McClendon’s dissertation represents some Dissertation Award consisted of Nic empirically) from similar concepts, such of the best work being done in comparative Cheeseman, Daniel Gingerich, and as relative deprivation, status anxiety, and politics. It combines novel theorizing with Allen Hicken. We received and reviewed last-place aversion. It builds a theory of the clever and effective use of multiple a substantial number of outstanding how within group-status concerns might empirical strategies. This work is sure to dissertations, many of which are worthy of influence political behavior. Specifically, help reshape how we think about citizen recognition. However, the committee agreed certain contextual triggers (for example, preferences over public policy and political that this year the Linz Award should go to high levels of within-group inequality) participation.” Gwyneth H. McClendon for her dissertation raise the salience of within-group status “The Politics of Envy and Esteem in Two concerns. Within group status concerns can, Best Book Award: Milan Svolik (University Democracies.” depending on the context, encourage greater of Illinois) was award the best book award for participation, or lead citizens to favor a The Politics of Authoritarian Rule (Cambridge Dr. McClendon’s dissertation draws “leveling down” of assets and incomes within University Press). on insights from social psychology and neighborhoods and among group members. behavioral economics to explain why, under This year’s award committee included certain circumstances, individuals prefer Dr. McClendon evaluates her argument by David Samuels (University of Minnesota)

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(chair), Rachel Beatty Riedl (Northwestern rule. This is a framework that will be built Committee Remarks on the Award University), James Melton (University upon for years to come by scholars who seek Winner: College London). to identify alternative ways in which dictators “The committee unanimously decided address the dilemmas of authoritarian to award the best article prize to Robert Committee Remarks on the Award power-sharing and authoritarian control Woodberry for his article “The Missionary Winner: first identified by Svolik.” Roots of Liberal Democracy”. In this article, “Political science has witnessed a proliferation which came out in the May 2012 issue of scholarship on authoritarian regimes Michael Coppedge (University of Notre of the American Political Science Review, over the past 10-15 years. Rather than Dame) was awarded an honorable mention Woodberry argues that conversionary simply categorizing all non-democracies as for Democratization and Research Methods Protestants were a crucial catalyst that totalitarian, where the dictator is supreme (Cambridge University Press). initiated the spread of the civic liberties and leader with unquestionable control over the associations that ultimately resulted in the elites and masses, we have come to appreciate Committee Remarks on the Honorable emergence of liberal democracy. the heterogeneity between dictatorships and Mention: to understand that even a dictator’s power “This book provides a critical overview A brief version of Woodberry’s theoretical depends on a coalition of supporters. The of the evolution of the scholarly study argument goes as follows: conversionary literature upon which these realizations of regime change, with a focus on the Protestants wanted ordinary people to be i) are based has greatly expanded both our interplay between different theories and able to read the Bible and ii) actively involved knowledge and interest in authoritarian different methodologies, highlighting the in their church. Yet in their attempts to politics. Missing from the extant literature, epistemological challenges that scholars spread their faith, conversionary Protestants though, is a theory that unifies and enhances - both qualitative and quantitative - face were in effect facilitating the spread of mass all that we have learned; a theory that lays when attempting to make sense of this education, mass printing, and civil society. the groundwork for future scholarship on complex phenomenon. In addition to These byproducts of religious activism in the politics of authoritarian rule. providing a most robust and yet precise turn led to the emergence of actors and conceptualization, Coppedge does more conditions favorable to democracy: civic Svolik’s book provides such a theory. He than merely summarize the democratization associations, political parties, religious argues that dictators face two dilemmas: literature. By putting the question of regime liberties, and mass political participation. 1) authoritarian power-sharing and 2) transition in dialogue with methodologies authoritarian control. The former is about he adjudicates between the theoretical and Hence, according to Woodberry, democracy managing their relationship with the ruling empirical evaluations of democracy’s causes. was not the autonomous triumph of modern elite, and the latter is about managing their In doing so, he has provided a public good forms of political organization and activity relationship with the masses. In explaining that will be an invaluable resource for all – like political parties, labor movements, these problems and the solutions used students of democratization, and will surely and mass education. Rather, these modern by dictators to address them, Svolik’s be assigned in most graduate seminars (and political actors were the byproduct of a work engulfs much of the literature on upper-division undergraduate courses) for very traditional activity, namely, religious authoritarian rule. He addresses how best years to come.” conversion and competition. to conceptualize authoritarian regimes, why some dictatorships are more durable than Best Article Award: Robert Woodberry These arguments alone amount to an others, why we sometimes dictators are able (National University of Singapore) won the important and novel challenge to the to personalize their rule, and how dictators best article award for his American Political standard versions of the modernization use political institutions, parties and Science Review piece, “The Missionary Roots theory. Yet, Woodberry’s article is also repression to prolong their rule. These topics of Liberal Democracy.” exceptional in the way it combines historical are addressed with both rigorous (formal) and statistical research in order to evaluate theory and innovative empirical methods, This year’s award committee included this theoretical proposition. which sometimes utilizes data collected Milan Svolik (University of Illinois) (Chair), specifically for this book. Ultimately, though, Svend-Erik Skaaning (Aarhus University), First, Woodberry shows that there is a the most important contribution of this and Leonardo R. Arriola (University of strong association between Protestantism book is the dynamic theoretical framework it California, Berkeley). and democracy across a number of historical establishes for understanding authoritarian and geographical contexts: in Western

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Europe, in settler colonies, in Eastern project identifies a compelling research years, living in and near refugee camps in Europe after the fall of communism, and in question -- namely, what explains variation Lebanon in order to make sense of variation the rest of the contemporary world. Then he in the degree of development and level in the reorganization of Palestinian militant presents historical evidence of conversionary of public goods provision across slums in organizations in the decades since 1980. Her protestants’ involvement in the spread of India? To answer it, Auerbach has employed central question -- what explains the different mass printing, mass education, civil society, a mixed-methods approach that has ways in which militant organizations recover and the rule of law – and thus highlights the involved extensive ethnographic fieldwork and reorganize after defeat? -- advances specific mechanisms by which conversionary over 15 months, a host of interviews literatures on war, on organizational theory protestants fostered conditions favorable to with political leaders, gang members, and and change, and on social networks. Under the emergence of democracy. And finally, squatter settlement residents, the collection difficult and dangerous circumstances, using original data on Protestant missionary of about 3,000 documents from community Parkinson won and kept the trust of her involvement around the world, Professor meetings, election campaigns and leadership research subjects. She integrated herself Woodberry demonstrates that the historic correspondence, an original survey of just fully into daily life and collected impressive prevalence of Protestant missionaries under two thousand households across archival and oral history data from both explains about half the variation in 80 slums, a database of party workers women and male officers. The committee democracy outside of Europe – even after characteristics, and the creation of satellite- believes that the depth, integrity, and careful controlling for most standard covariates imaging maps. His fieldwork efforts are design of her project will make a very and after accounting for endogeneity by an impressive in their sheer breadth, depth, important contribution to political science.” instrumental variable analysis. and creativity. He has collected rich data on often-overlooked communities and Best Paper Award: Kunle Owolabi To summarize, it is the combination of political activities. His innovative approach (Villanova) won the best paper award for a new approach to a classic, important has also thus far led to intriguing and his work on “Literacy and Democracy After question and the nuanced use of different novel results. For instance, Auerbach finds, Slavery?” kinds of methods and evidence when contrary to much extant research, that evaluating his theoretical claims that led ethnic heterogeneity can have a positive This year’s award committee included us to award this year’s best article prize to impact on public goods provision, at least Zachary Elkins (University of Texas Robert Woodberry.” when it leads to competitive and dense at Austin) (Chair), Daniel Ziblatt patronage networks. His dissertation project (Harvard University), and Joseph Wright Best Fieldwork Award: Adam Auerbach promises to make a key contribution to (Pennsylvania State University). won the best fieldwork prize for his political science literatures on economic dissertation project, “Cooperation in development, ethnic diversity, public goods Committee Remarks on the Award Uncertainty: Migration, Ethnicity, and provision, clientelism, political competition, Winner: Community Governance in India’s Urban and research design.” “We—the selection committee—agreed Slums.” unanimously in our decision. We found Sarah Parkinson was also awarded an Owolabi’s paper to be a highly original This year’s award committee included honorable mention for her work on treatment of a fascinating research question. Leonard Wantchekon (Princeton “Reinventing the Resistance: Order and Owolabi notes a puzzling difference in University) (chair), Oeindrila Dube (New Violence among Palestinians in Lebanon.” literacy rates between two sets of countries York University), Gwyneth McClendon characterized two different patterns of (Yale University). Committee Remarks on the Honorable colonization: those in which colonizers Mention: “The committee is also pleased imported non-indigenous laborers to Committee Remarks on the Award to award Sarah Parkinson’s dissertation, colonies (largely in the Americas) and those Winners “This year’s committee is pleased to “Reinventing the Resistance: Order and in which colonizers dominated indigenous have selected Adam Auerbach’s dissertation Violence Among Palestinians in Lebanon,” populations (largely in Africa and Asia). project, “Cooperation in Uncertainty: an Honorable Mention. Parkinson went Paradoxically, those societies characterized Migration, Ethnicity, and Community above and beyond the depth and personal by forced settlement (the first mode) exhbit Governance in India’s Urban Slums,” for risk typically undertaken for dissertation much higher literacy rates in the post- the Comparative Democratization’s Best fieldwork and with striking results. She colonial era than do those characterized by Fieldwork Prize. Auerbach’s dissertation spent over 19 months, over the course of 5 occupation (the second mode).

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Owolabi’s explanation for this paradox is NEWS FROM MEMBERS Service in Qatar to work on his book compelling. He suggests that the process Naazneen Barma, assistant professor manuscript that examines the success and associated with the abolition of slavery in of National Security Affairs, Naval failure of alliances between Islamists and colonies of forced settlement led to some Postgraduate School, has been awarded leftists in Tunisia, Morocco, and Mauritania. surprising benefits with respect to citizenship a grant from the 2013 Minerva Research and education. By contrast, societies of Initiative, along with co-PIs Jessica Piombo Maxwell Cameron, director of the Centre occupation maintained strict administrative and Naomi Levy. The research project for the Study of Democratic Institutions, codes for indigenous populations that is entitled “Public Service Provision as University of British Columbia, published essentially denied them fundamental Peace-building: How Do Autonomous Strong Constitutions: Social-Cognitive citizenship rights until the post-World War Efforts Compare to Internationally Aided Origins of the Separation of Powers (Oxford II era. This deprivation in membership and Interventions?” and comprises comparative University Press, 2013). The book is the first status in the community had a remarkable case study work in Cambodia, Laos, and social scientific theory of the separation impact on educational outcomes. Owolabi Uganda on the relationship between peace- of powers based on language and social tests his theory convincingly with a careful building and state-building. cognition. Visit http://strongconstitutions. statistical analysis. The result is a highly com for more information. intriguing historical paper, which we expect Michael Bernhard, Raymond and will be published in the next several years in Miriam Ehrlich Chair in Political Science, Paul J. Carnegie, senior lecturer in political a top journal. University of Florida, and Ruchan Kaya science, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, published “Are Elections Mechanisms of published “Can an Indonesian Model Work We congratulate Kunle Owolabi heartily Authoritarian Stability or Democratization? in the Middle East?” in the Summer 2013 and wish him the best of luck in his future Evidence from Postcommunist Eurasia” in Middle East Quarterly. Recognizing that work in this area.” the September 2013 Perspectives on Politics, earlier concerns over an Islamist ascendancy in which the authors test whether elections after the fall of Indonesian President Autocracies of the World Dataset Now have functioned as a mechanism of change Suharto proved largely unfounded, Carnegie Available: or of neo-authoritarian stability in the asks how this development was possible in On October 18, 2013, Beatriz Magaloni, postcommunist world. Bernhard’s coedited the world’s most populous Muslim country Jonathan Chu, and Eric Min at Stanford book (with Jan Kubik), Twenty Years after and asks if it can serve as a template for the University released the first edition of Communism: The Politics of Memory and ongoing transitions in the Middle East. the Autocracies of the World (AoW) Commemoration, is under contract with Carnegie was recently in Pontianak in West 1950-2012 dataset. Among a variety of Oxford University Press and is expected to Kalimantan, Indonesia in late June, where he attributes, the data tracks regime types for be published in October 2014. was conducting field research on the politics all countries from 1950-2012 with more of decentralization reform in the country’s specific sub-categories (monarchy, single Archie Brown, Emeritus Professor of provinces. party, hegemonic, military) for all autocratic Politics, Oxford University, published the country-years. Building on top of extant chapter on “Communism” in Michael Dinissa S. Duvanova, assistant professor regime classification datasets, the AoW Freeden, Lyman Tower Sargent, and Marc of political science, University of Buffalo, offers at least three unique contributions: Stears (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political SUNY, published Building Business in removing all hybrid classifications;Ideologies in 2013. Brown’s own more recent Post-Communist Russia, Eastern Europe, correcting classification errors and omissions book, The Rise and Fall of Communism (Ecco, and Eurasia: Collective Goods, Selective in other datasets; and including two new 2011), has been translated in nine different Incentives, and Predatory States (Cambridge measurements of personalist rule that apply countries, most recently Israel and Russia. University Press), in which the author shows to all autocratic governments. Further details that postcommunist business associations on these changes and other useful covariates Matt Buehler, alumnus of the University function as substitutes for state and private (such as regime duration) can be found in of Texas-Austin (2013), will begin a mechanisms for good governance. Please the dataset’s codebook. Both the data and tenure track position at the University of write to the author at duvanova@buffalo. codebook will soon be housed by Stanford’s Tennessee’s Department of Political Science edu for a discount code if you would like to Center on Democracy, Development, and in Fall 2014. This year, he is participating purchase the book. Rule of Law (CDDRL). Both resources are in a post-doctoral fellowship at the Center also currently available for free download at for International and Regional Studies at Todd Eisenstadt, professor of government, http://ericmin.com/aow-data. Georgetown University’s School of Foreign American University, and Karleen West of

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West Virginia University have received a Erica Frantz, assistant professor of political elections, the mass media, and state three-year grant from the National Science science, Bridgewater State University, and institutions) that their rulers face. A copy of Foundation’s Law and Social Sciences Natasha Ezrow published Failed States the article is available by request by writing Division for their work on “Collaborative and Institutional Decay: Understanding to [email protected]. Research: Identifying the Conditions Instability and Poverty in the Developing Under Which Indigenous Communities World (Bloomsbury Publishing), in which Debra Javeline, associate professor of Engage in Legal Mobilization.” Using a the author explains how and why different political science, University of Notre Dame, survey conducted with Ecuadorian partners, types of institutions deteriorate and Jessica J. Hellmann, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, Eisenstadt and West are studying poor, illustrates the impact that institutional decay and Gregory Shufeldt, published “Expert rural, indigenous communities in that has on political instability and poverty using Opinion on Climate Change and Threats to country - and in a comparative framework examples from all over the world. Biodiversity” in the August 2013 Bioscience. - to understand how they overcome The authors suggest policymakers consult socioeconomic and geographic barriers to Vladimir Gel’man, professor of political environmental biologists on emerging and launch new forms of social movements science and sociology, European University controversial issues such as climate change relying on Western science and international at St. Petersburg, published (in Russian) and use transparent, standardized metrics of collaboration. Lz ognya da v polymya: Rossiiskaya Politika expertise when deciding which scientists to Posle SSSR (Out of the Frying Pan, into the consult. Bonnie N. Field, associate professor, Fire: Russian Politics after the USSR), which Bentley University and visiting scholar at analyzes why more than two decades after Harshan Kumarasingham, senior research Harvard’s Center for European Studies, the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth published “Resolute Leaders and ‘Cardboard politics has not brought the country closer Studies, University of London, recently Deputies’: Parliamentary Party Unity in the to political freedom. Gel’man’s article, published several articles: “Constrained New Spanish Democracy” in the September “Cracks in the Wall: Challenges to Electoral Parliamentarism in the New Zealand 2013 South European Society and Politics, Authoritarianism in Russia” appears in Regime” (with John Power), which appeared which puts forward a leadership-centered the March-April 2013 Problems of Post- in the April 2013 Commonwealth & explanation of parliamentary party unity in Communism. Comparative Politics; “Exporting Executive new democracies. She also published Politics Accountability: Westminster Legacies and Society in Contemporary Spain: From Agustina Giraudy, assistant professor of Executive Power” in the July 2013 Zapatero to Rajoy (Palgrave 2013), co-edited at American University’s School of Parliamentary Affairs; and “‘The Jewel of with Alfonso Botti (University of Modena International Service, published “Varieties the East yet Has Its Flaws: The Deceptive and Reggio Emilia). The book offers a of Subnational Undemocratic Regimes: Tranquility Surrounding Sri Lankan comprehensive and nuanced analysis of Evidence from Argentina and Mexico” in Independence,” published by the Heidelberg contemporary Spain. Focusing on the second the March 2013 Studies in Comparative Papers in South Asian and Comparative term of Socialist Prime Minister José Luis International Development. Recognizing the Politics’ Working Papers series in June 2013. Rodríguez Zapatero, the dramatic defeat shortcomings of subnational undemocratic of the Socialists in the 2011 elections and regimes literature, the author calls for Todd Landman, executive dean, faculty the alternation of power to the conservative a separation between two orthogonal of social sciences, University of Essex, Popular Party, it underscores Spain’s deep dimensions: the access to and the exercise of published Human Rights and Democracy: The economic and political crisis. state power. Precarious Triumph of Ideals (Bloomsbury Academic Press), in which the author Julie Fisher Melton published Importing Henry Hale, associate professor of political traces how state and non-state actors have Democracy: The Role of NGOs in South science and international affairs, The George created social, political, and legal institutions Africa, Tajikistan, and Argentina. Published Washington University, Nikolay Petrov, and that seek to constrain the worst forms of by the Kettering Foundation in 2013, Maria Lipman published “Three Dilemmas human behavior and embraced the ideas of the book examines the roles of NGOs in of Hybrid Regime Governance: Russia democracy and human rights in new ways. democratization by conducting hundreds from Putin to Putin” in the September 2013 of interviews in several countries across the Post-Soviet Affairs. The authors investigate Staffan I. Lindberg, association professor world. how hybrid regimes supply governance by of political science at the University of examining a series of dilemmas (involving Gothenburg and the University of Florida,

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published “Mapping Accountability: Core the aftermath of the 1980 military coup Emory University, was named a Fulbright Concept and Subtypes” in the June 2013 and argues that, while important, the EU’s Nehru Scholar to India for 2013-14. She is International Review of Administrative influence on democracy and human rights based at IIT Bombay for the fall semester. Sciences and “Have the Cake and Eat It: The only began to influence police reform after Her research on strategic communication Rational Voter in Africa” in a forthcoming 1999. in India focuses on business, government, issue of Party Politics. Lindberg and Keith and international affairs.The Sage Handbook Weghorst also published “What Drives Sebastian Royo, associate dean of the of Political Communication, edited by Holli the Swing Voter in Africa?” in the July College of Arts and Sciences at Suffolk Semetko and Margaret Scammell, was 2013 American Journal of Political Science. University, recently published Lessons from published in 2012. Finally, Lindberg, Pontus Strimling, Micael the Economic Crisis in Spain (Palgrave); Ehn, Kimmo Eriksson, and Bo Rothstein “Portugal in the European Union: The Limits Dan Slater, associate professor of political published “Can Efficient Institutions Induce of Convergence” in a special issue of South science, University of Chicago, published a Cooperation Among Low Trust Agents? European Society and Politics that focused coauthored article in the September 2013 An Experimental Approach” as part of the on “Europeanisation and the Southern Perspectives on Politics with Joseph Wong, Quality of Government Institute’s Working Periphery”; and a book chapter entitled professor of political science, University of Paper series. “A ‘Ship in Trouble’ The Spanish Banking Toronto, entitled “The Strength to Concede: System in the Midst of the Global Financial Ruling Parties and Democratization in James Melton, Lecturer in Comparative System Crisis: The Limits of Regulation” to Developmental Asia.” Politics, University College London, the book Market-Based Banking, Varieties of Tom Ginsburg, Leo Spitz Professor of Financial Capitalism and the Financial Crisis, Lahra Smith, assistant professor, Edmund International Law, Ludwig and Hilde Wolf edited by Iain Hardie and David Howarth A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Research Scholar and Professor of Political and published by Oxford University Press. Georgetown University, published Making Science, University of Chicago, and Zachary Citizens in Africa: Ethnicity, Gender, and Elkins, associate professor of government, Sanjay Ruparelia, assistant professor of National Identity in Ethiopia (Cambridge University of Texas at Austin, have launched politics, New School for Social Research, was University Press). Using data from Ethiopia a new website, Constitute, which uses recently awarded a Postdoctoral Fellowship and developing a historically informed and data from the Comparative Constitutions for Transregional Research to conduct empirically nuanced study of language policy Projects to allow national constitutions to be fieldwork for his new project, “Demanding and ethnicity and gender identities, the book served by topic. Constitute can be accessed a Right to Basic Social Welfare: Contesting analyzes the contestation over citizenship at www.constituteproject.org/#/. the Law in India and China,” by the Social that engages the state, social movements, Science Research Council. Ruparelia also and individuals in substantive ways. Yonatan Morse has taken an appointment published “India’s New Rights Agenda: as visiting assistant professor and associate Genesis, Promises, Risks” in the September Etel Solingen was recently appointed as the director of the Center for Democracy and 2013 Pacific Affairs. Thomas T. and Elizabeth C. Tierney Chair in Civil Society at Georgetown University’s Peace Studies at the University of California department of government. Morse also Ben Ross Schneider, Ford International Irvine. Solingen also served as the president published “Party Matters: The Institutional Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts of the International Studies Association Origins of Competitiveness and Hegemony Institute of Technology, published from 2012 to 2013 under the theme “The in Post Cold War Tanzania,” which Hierarchical Capitalism in Latin America, Politics of Transnational and Regional will appear in an upcoming issue of in which the author argues that Latin Diffusion,” highlighting a large number of Democratization. America has a distinctive, enduring form panels on comparative democratization, the of hierarchical capitalism characterized Arab Spring, and related topics. She also Leila Piran, adjunct professor at George by multinational corporations, diversified published “Three Scenes of Sovereignty and Washington University’s School of business groups, low skills, and segmented Power” in Martha Finnemore and Judith Professional Studies, published Institutional labor markets. Goldstein (eds.), Back to Basics: Rethinking Change in Turkey: The Impact of EU Reforms Power in the Contemporary World (Oxford on Human Rights and Policing (Palgrave Holli A. Semetko, Asa Griggs Candler University Press). MacMillan). The book explores the domestic Professor of Media and International reasons behind police reform in Turkey in Affairs and Professor of Political Science,

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A book written by Guillermo Trejo, Rachel Vanderhill, visiting assistant Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and associate professor of political science, professor of international relations, Honduras, countries that have relatively University of Notre Dame, entitled Wheaton College, and Michael E. Aleprete, few resources and little political will to Popular Movements in Autocracies: Religion, Jr. edited International Dimensions of implement legal norms that aim to prevent Repression, and Indigenous Collective Action Authoritarian Persistence: Lessons from and sanction violence against women. In in Mexico (Cambridge University Press), Post-Soviet States (Lexington Books). The part, she argues that transnational advocacy received an honorary mention for the edited volume explores how international networks help overcome state resistance to 2013 Charles Tilly Award for Best Book factors interact with domestic conditions to advancing institutional specialization and Published in Collective Behavior and Social explain the persistence of authoritarianism performance by providing external pressure Movements from the American Sociological throughout the region. The selections in the and international funding to support new Association (ASA). volume cover several countries, including institution-strengthening efforts within the Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, justice system. Maya Tudor, university lecturer in South Ossetia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, government and public policy, Oxford and the Russian Federation. The failure Kurt Weyland, Lozano Long Professor of University, published The Promise of Power: of democratic consolidation among post- Latin American Politics, University of Texas The Social Origins of Democracy in India and Soviet states offers important lessons for at Austin, won the Mary Parker Follett Autocracy in Pakistan (Cambridge University policymakers and academics dealing with Prize of the APSA Politics and History Press), in which she suggests that the the recent wave of political transitions in the section for two of his articles: “Diffusion emergence of a stable democracy in India Middle East and Asia. Waves and European Democratization: The and an unstable autocracy in Pakistan is Impact of Organizational Development” best explained by the historically-specific Michael Wahman (formerly University and “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising interests of the dominant social group which of Texas at Austin) started a new position Similarities with the Revolutionary Wave of led each independence movement as well as Visiting Postdoctoral Fellow at London 1848?” Weyland also published “The Threat as by the varying strength of the political School of Economic’s Department of from the Populist Left” in the June 2013 parties which were created to pursue those Government on September 1. Wahman’s Journal of Democracy’s cluster of articles on interests. Tudor also published The Historical research is supported by a two-year grant “Latin America’s Authoritarian Drift.” Inheritance of India’s Democracy (Routledge from the Swedish Research Council. Handbook on Indian Politics). During his time at LSE, he will concentrate Matthew S. Winters, assistant professor on a project studying African sub-national of political science, University of Illinois at Rollin F. Tusalem was recently promoted variation in election manipulation and Urbana-Champaign, and Rebecca Weitz- to associate professor of political science electoral behavior. Shapiro, Stanley J. Bernstein Assistant at Arkansas State University. He recently Professor of Political Science, Brown published “Bringing the Military Back In: Shannon Drysdale Walsh was awarded a University, published “Lacking Information The Politicisation of the Military and its National Endowment for the Humanities or Condoning Corruption: When Do Effects on Democratic Consolidation” and Summer Stipend for 2013 to support two Voters Support Corrupt Politicians?’ in the “The Impact of Diamonds on Economic months of full-time writing and research July 2013 Comparative Politics. Using an Growth, Adverse Regime Change, and on her book project Engendering State original survey experiment, the article finds Democratic State Building in Africa” (with Institutions: State Response to Violence little evidence of Brazilian voters accepting Minion K.C. Morrison) in upcoming issues Against Women in Latin America. This book a tradeoff in which they support corrupt of International Political Science Review manuscript proposes a theoretical framework politicians who are otherwise providing and “The Effect of Political Dynasties to explain variation in the construction and public goods; instead, when voters are given on Effective Democratic Governance: performance of specialized state institutions information about political corruption, Evidence from the Philippines” (with Jeffrey that address violence against women. they express a preference for removing the Pe-Aguirre) in Asian Politics and Policy. Drysdale Walsh compares Guatemala, politician from office.

32 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

New Research Journal of Democracy unseated by popular unrest and a negotiated look at the evidence casts doubt on the theory of transition is under way, but to many Yemenis this “democratization by elections. The October 2013 (Vol. 24, no. 4) Journal all appears to be a change more of appearance than of Democracy features a cluster of articles of substance. II. “Confusing Categories, Shifting Targets” by on “Tracking the ‘Arab Spring,’” as well as Staffan I. Lindberg individual case studies on democracy and V. “Libya Starts from Scratch” by Mieczysław Staffan Lindberg replies to Matthijs Bogaards’s the quality of the state, governance, Paraguay, P. Boduszyński and Duncan Pickard critique, finding the latter’s methodology Malaysia, and elections in Africa. Qadhafi is gone after subjecting his country to a problematic and arguing that the evidence brutal dictatorship for more than four decades, but for association between repeated elections and “Democracy and the Quality of the State” by the devastated institutional landscape that he left democratization remains strong. Francis Fukuyama behind bodes ill for Libya’s democratic prospects. What is the relationship between high-quality The July 2013 (Volume 24, no. 3) issue of the state administration and democracy? A look back “The Third Wave: Inside the Numbers” by Journal of Democracy features clusters of articles at modern Greece and Italy, along with Germany Jørgen Møller and Svend-Erik Skaaning on “Latin America’s Authoritarian Drift,” and the United States, provides some insights. Is democracy threatened by a “reverse wave”? “Putin versus Civil Society,” and “Kenya’s 2013 Examining regional patterns and distinguishing Elections,” as well individual case studies on “Reflections on ‘Governance’” by Marc F. between different types of democracy gives us a Jordan, Algeria, and Bahrain. The full text of Plattner new basis for assessing this question. selected articles and the tables of contents of “Governance,” once merely a synonym for all issues are available on the Journal’s website. government, has taken on new meanings that “Paraguay and the Politics of Impeachment” tend to downplay the importance of the political. by Leiv Marsteintredet, Mariana Llanos, and “The Durability of Revolutionary Regimes” by But can “good governance” be achieved today Detlef Nolte Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way without the protections of liberal democracy? The phenomenon of the “interrupted presidency” Authoritarian regimes that have their origins in remains a key source of democratic instability revolutionary struggle have a much higher survival Tracking the “Arab Spring” in Latin America, as was demonstrated once rate than other brands of authoritarianism. What I. “Why the Modest Harvest?” by Jason again by the 2012 impeachment of Paraguayan accounts for their durability? Brownlee, Tarek Masoud, and Andrew president Fernando Lugo. Reynolds Latin America’s Authoritarian Drift Popular uprisings have occurred only in some Research Report I. “The Threat from the Populist Left” by Kurt Arab states and in even fewer have authoritarian “Assessing the Quality of Elections” by Weyland rulers been overthrown. What factors allow us to Pippa Norris, Richard W. Frank, and Ferran The left-populist authoritarianism that is taking predict whether an authoritarian regime will be Martinez i Coma hold across a swatch of Latin America bears many vulnerable? Determining whether an election has met resemblances to the rightist populism that was international standards is a pressing issue for once widespread in the region. There are signs, II. “Egypt’s Failed Transition” by Nathan J. both practitioners and scholars. An important however, that the leftist variant will be an even Brown new study aims to systematize the assessment of bigger problem for liberal democracy. The July 2013 military takeover has squashed electoral integrity. democratic hopes in Egypt, at least for now. How II. “Technocratic Populism in Ecuador” by did things go so wrong, and what lessons are to be “Malaysia’s Elections: A Step Backward” by Carlos de la Torre drawn from this lamentable episode? Bridget Welsh President Rafael Correa, now entering Despite losing the popular vote, Malaysia’s long- his third term, has built a curious form of III. “Syria and the Future of Authoritarianism” ruling Barisan Nasional triumphed again in populist-authoritarian regime. He champions by Steven Heydemann the country’s 2013 elections, disappointing an redistributionism and a kind of technocratic The Assad regime has been adapting to the new emboldened opposition that had high hopes after leftism while assaulting the traditional left along challenges posed by mass uprisings through a a strong performance in 2008. with such mainstays of a liberal society as the process of “authoritarian learning,” and at least freedom of the press. some of its methods are being applied elsewhere in Exchange the region. I. “Reexamining African Elections” by III. “Chavismo After Chávez?” by Miriam Matthijs Bogaards Kornblith IV. “Yemen Changes Everything…And Do even unfree and unfair elections in sub- Can a regime built by and centered around a Nothing” by April Longley Alley Saharan Africa, if repeated often enough, populist strongman survive that strongman’s A long-ruling strongman president has been really contribute to democratization? A fresh death? A natural experiment is now unfolding in

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New Research

Venezuela as a resurgent opposition and a crisis of reform is no longer enough, but key players fail to “Ahab and the White Whale: the governability converge on the would-be heirs of realize it. Contemporary Debate around the Forms of Hugo Chávez. Catholic Political Commitment in Italy” by Kenya’s 2013 Elections Alberta Giorgi Putin versus Civil Society I. “Choosing Peace over Democracy” by James I. “The Long Struggle for Freedom” by Leon D. Long, Karuti Kanyinga, Karen E. Ferree, “Religious Parties in Chile: the Christian Aron and Clark Gibson Democratic Party and the Independent Today’s Russian protest movement in many ways In March 2013, Kenyans took to the polls in Democratic Union” by Juan Pablo Luna, resembles past civil-rights and civil-resistance what turned out to be another disputed election. Felipe Monestier, and Fernando Rosenblatt efforts in other parts of the world, from its Why did the peace hold this time, unlike in 2007, commitment to nonviolence to its key demands—a and what are the implications for democracy in “Religion and Democratization in Northern vote that counts and equality under the law. Kenya? Ireland: Is Religion actually Ethnicity in Disguise?” by Eoin O’Malley and Dawn Walsh II. “Outlawing the Opposition” by Miriam II. “Technology Is Not Democracy” by Joel D. Lanskoy and Elspeth Suthers Barkan “Conclusion: Reassessing the Relation The Putin regime, having faced its first real In an effort to avoid repeating the 2007 electoral between Religion, Political Actors, and challenge in the form of mass protests after the debacle, Kenya’s election commission turned to Democratization” by Luca Ozzano and 2011 Duma elections, is responding with a series technology, but its high-tech voter-registration Francesco Cavatorta of laws intended to intimidate its civil-society and vote-count processes fell short. Its experience opposition, if not stamp it out altogether. has important lessons both for emerging The August 2013 (Vol. 20, no. 4) democracies and for international donors. Democratization features articles on democracy “Transforming the Arab World’s Protection- promotion in eastern Europe, elections in Racket Politics” by Daniel Brumberg Democratization Tanzania and Uganda, measuring democracy, The Arab world’s old autocracies survived by regime type and the impact of democracy manipulating the sharp identity conflicts in their The October 2013 (Vol. 20, no. 5) assistance, institutional factors and party societies. The division and distrust that this style of Democratization is a special issue on “Religiously systems in new democracies, and the influence rule generated is now making it especially difficult Oriented Parties and Democratization.” of external actors on democratization. to carry out the kind of pact-making often crucial to successful democratic transitions. “Introduction: Religiously Oriented Parties “Linkages and the Promotion of Democracy: and Democratization” by Luca Ozzano and the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood” by “Algeria versus the Arab Spring” by Frédéric Francesco Cavatorta Gwendolyn Sasse Volpi Not only did the Algerian regime survive the “The Many Faces of the Political God: A “Elections and Landmark Policies in Tanzania “Arab Spring,” it hardly deviated from its Typology of Religiously Oriented Parties” by and Uganda” by Anne Mette Kjær and Ole normal methods of authoritarian governance— Luca Ozzano Therkildsen patronage, pseudodemocratization, and effective use of the security apparatus. “The Perils of Polarization and Religious “Bringing Direct Democracy Back In: Toward Parties: The Democratic Challenges of a Three-Dimensional Measure of Democracy” “Bahrain’s Decade of Discontent” by Frederic Political Fragmentation in Israel and Turkey” by David Altman Wehrey by Sultan Tepe When this small island kingdom in the Gulf “Does Regime Type Matter for the Impact joined the wider Arab world’s political upheavals “Moderation through Exclusion? The Journey of Democracy Aid on Democracy?” by Agnes in March 2011, it was a reaction to regional of the Tunisian Ennahda from Fundamentalist Cornell events, but also a reflection of internal problems to Conservative Party” by Francesco Cavatorta that had been festering for a decade. and Fabio Merone “Institutional Factors Affecting Party Systems in New Democracies: Endogenous or “Jordan: The Ruse of Reform” by Sean L. Yom “Refining the Moderation Thesis. Two Exogenous Predictors?” by Mazen Hassan The Hashemite monarchy still fails to understand Religious Parties and Indian Democracy: the the challenges that threaten Jordan’s political Jana Sangh and the BJP between Hindutva “When One Might not See the Wood for the order. The old playbook of limited, manipulated Radicalism and Coalition Politics” by Trees: the ‘Historical Turn’ in Democratization Christophe Jaffrelot Studies, Critical Junctures, and Cross-Case

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Comparisons” by Jørgen Møller American Political Science Review, Vol. 107, “Violence Against Civilians in the Second no. 3, August 2013 Intifada: The Moderating Effect of Armed “When Can External Actors Influence “Organizing Rebellion: Rethinking High- Group Structure on Opportunistic Violence” Democratization? Leverage, Linkages, and Risk Mobilization and Social Networks in by Devorah Manekin Gatekeeper Elites” by Jakob Tolstrup War” by Sarah Elizabeth Parkinson Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 46, no. 9, “Inclusive Institutions and Stability of “Quality of Government: Toward a More September 2013 Transition toward Democracy in Post-Civil Complex Definition” by Marcus Agnafors “Vote Buying With Multiple Distributive War States” by Madhav Joshi Goods” by Michael Albertus “Quality Over Quantity: Amici Influence “Remembering Violence: the Role of Apology and Judicial Decision Making” by Janet M. Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 46, no. 8, and Dialogue in Turkey’s Democratization Box-Steffensmeier, Dino P. Christenson, and August 2013 Process” by Mneesha Gellman Matthew P. Hitt “Competitiveness, Partisanship, and Subnational Protest in Argentina” by Moisés SELECTED JOURNAL ARTICLES ON “Empowering Women through Development Arce and Jorge Mangonnet DEMOCRACY Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan” by Andrew Beath, Fotini “When Grapevine News Meets Mass Media: This section features selected articles on Christia, Ruben Enikolopov Different Information Sources and Popular democracy that appeared in journals received Perceptions of Government Corruption in by the NED’s Democracy Resource Center, “Perils or Promise of Ethnic Integration? Mainland China” by Jiangnan Zhu, Jie Lu, and June 1– June 1, 2013. Evidence from a Hard Case in Burundi” by Tianjian Shi Cyrus Samii African Affairs, Vol. 111, no. 449, October “Attitude Variability Among Latin American 2013 “The Semblance of Democratic Revolution: Publics: How Party System Structuration “The Volatility of a Half-Cooked Bouillabaisse: Coalitions in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution” by Affects Left/Right Ideology” by Imke Rebel–Military Integration and Conflict Mark R. Beissinger Harbers, Catherine E. de Vries, and Marco R. Dynamics in the Eastern DRC” by Maria Steenbergen Eriksson Baaz and Judith Verweijen Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 46, no. 3, September 2013 “Campaign Spending in Proportional “Resource Curse or Resource Disease? Oil in “Continuity and Change in Russia’s Policy Electoral Systems: Incumbents Versus Ghana” by Dominik Kopiński, Andrzej Polus, toward Central and Eastern Europe” by Yury Challengers Revisited” by Joel W. Johnson and Wojciech Tycholiz E. Fedorov Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 46, no. 7, “Continuity and Change in Senegalese Party Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 46, no. 10, July 2013 Politics: Lessons from the 2012 Elections” by October 2013 “Engendering’Politics: The Impact of Danielle Resnick “The Behavioral Foundations of Social Politics: Descriptive Representation on Women’s Evidence from Surveys and a Laboratory Political Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa” African Affairs, Vol. 111, no. 448, July 2013 Democracy” by Benjamin Barber IV, Pablo by Tiffany D. Barnes and Stephanie M. “The Roots of Resilience: Exploring Popular Beramendi, and Erik Wibbels Burchard Support for African Traditional Authorities” by “The Varying Political Toll of Concerns About “Catchall or Catch and Release? The Electoral Carolyn Logan Corruption in Good Versus Bad Economic Consequences of Social Democratic Parties’ Times” by Elizabeth J. Zechmeister and March to the Middle in Western Europe” “Democratic Revolutionaries or Pocketbook Daniel Zizumbo-Colunga by Johannes Karreth, Jonathan T. Polk, and Protesters? The Roots of the 2009–2010 Christopher S. Allen Uprisings in Niger” by Lisa Mueller “Mainstream or Niche? Vote-Seeking Incentives and the Programmatic Strategies “When Parties Meet Voters: Assessing “From Warlords to Freedom Fighters: Political of Political Parties” by Thomas M. Meyer and Political Linkages Through Partisan Networks Violence and State Formation in Umbumbulu, Markus Wagner and Distributive Expectations in Argentina South Africa” by Sarah M. Mathis and Chile” by Ernesto Calvo and Maria Victoria Murillo

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“The Calculus of Consensus Democracy: “Party System Institutionalization in Ukraine” Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 51, Rethinking Patterns of Democracy Without by Olena Rybiy no. 3, September 2013 Veto Players” by Anthony J. McGann and “Second Time Around: Ex-Combatants at the Michael Latner “The Negative Consequences of Proportional Polls in Liberia” by Johanna Söderström Representation in Ukraine” by Serhij Comparative Politics, Vol. 46, no. 1, October Vasylchenko Middle East Journal, Vol. 67, no 3, Summer 2013 2013 “The Left and Minority Representation: East European Politics, Vol. 29, no. 2, May “Iran’s Basij: Membership in a Militant The Labour Party, Muslim Candidates, and 2013 Islamist Organization” by Afshon Ostovar Inclusion Tradeoffs” by Rafaela Dancygier “State Functions and Media Politics: Case Study on Print Media in Slovenia” by Nikolai “University under Siege: The Case of the “Striking Concessions from Governments: Genov Professors’ Basij Organization” by Saeid The Success of General Strikes in Western Golkar Europe, 1980–2009” by Kerstin Hamann, International Political Science Review, Vol. Alison Johnston, and John Kelly 34, no. 5, November 2013 Middle East Policy, Vol. 20, no. 3, Fall 2013 “The Internet: A New Route to Good “Power Sharing in Syria: Lessons from “Whither Clientelism? Good Governance and Governance” by Susan Khazaeli and Daniel Lebanon’s Taif Experience” by Stephan Rosiny Brazil’s Bolsa Família Program” by Natasha Stockemer Borges Sugiyama and Wendy Hunter “Hamas and the Arab Spring: Strategic “Why Do People Vote? Rationality or Shifts?” by Beverley Milton-Edwards “Subnational Islamization through Secular Emotion” by Ching-Hsing Wang Parties: Comparing Shari’a Politics in Two “The Rise of Militant Salafism in Azerbaijan Indonesian Provinces” by Michael Buehler “A Right-to-Left Policy Switch? An Analysis and Its Regional Implications” by Emil of the Honduran Case under Manuel Zelaya” Souleimanov and Maya Ehrmann Comparative Politics, Vol. 45, no. 4, July 2013 by Clayton M. Cunha Filho, André Luiz “Regime Legacies and Levels of Democracy: Coelho, and Fidel I. Pérez Flores “Turkey Today: Headscarves and Women’s Evidence from Latin America” by Aníbal Rights” by Marvine Howe Pérez-Liñán and Scott Mainwaring “Repression, Political Threats, and Survival under Autocracy” by Abel Escribà-Folch Middle East Policy, Vol. 20, no. 2, Summer “Electing Extremists? Party Primaries and 2013 Legislative Candidates in Mexico” by Kathleen “Voting Differently across Electoral Arenas: “Order, Freedom and Chaos: Sovereignties in Bruhn Empirical Implications from a Decentralized Syria” by George Abu Ahmad Democracy” by Pedro Riera “Lacking Information or Condoning “Creating Democrats? Testing the Arab Corruption? When Will Voters Support International Political Science Review, Vol. Spring” by Ashley Barnes Corrupt Politicians?” by Matthew S. Winters 34, no. 4, September 2013 and Rebecca Weitz-Shapiro “Is Corruption an Enemy of Civil Society? “Transition in the Middle East: New Arab Realities and Iran” by Mahmood Sariolghalam “Political Representation in Microstates: The The Case of Central and Eastern Europe” by Cases of St. Kitts and Nevis, Seychelles, and Patty Zakaria Party Politics, Vol. 19, no. 6, November 2013 Palau” by Wouter Veenendaal “Analysing Multiparty Competition in “Opening Pandora’s Box? Inclusive Plurality Rule Elections” by Patrick Dunleavy “Perspectives on the Power and Persistence Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict and Rekha Diwakar of States in Africa and Beyond” by Erin Hern in Oil-Rich Countries” by Tim Wegenast “Have the Cake and Eat It: The Rational Demokratizatsiya, Vol. 21, no. 3, Summer “Changing the Rules of the Game: Voter in Africa” by Staffan I Lindberg 2013 Determinants of Successful Electoral System “Patterns of Electoral Contestation in Russian Change in Central and Eastern Europe” by Party Politics, Vol. 19, no. 5, September 2013 Regional Assemblies: Between ‘Competitive’ Philipp Harfst “Political Parties, Independents and the and ‘Hegemonic’ Authoritarianism” by Petr Electoral Market in sub-Saharan Africa” by Panov and Cameron Ross John Ishiyama, Anna Batta, and Angela Sortor

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“Measuring Vertical Integration in Parties By E. Scott Adler and John D. Wilkerson. Helmsman Ruler: China’s Pragmatic Version of with Multi-Level Systems Data” by Lori Cambridge University Press, 2012. 246 pp. Plato’s Ideal Political Succession System in The Thorlakson Republic. By Keith K.C. Hui. Trafford, 2013. Government by Dissent: Protest, Resistance, 159 pp. “Do Electoral Coalitions Facilitate Democratic and Radical Democratic Thought in the Early Consolidation in Africa?” by Danielle Resnick American Republic. By Robert W.T. Martin. Korean Political and Economic Development: New York University Press, 2013. 262 pp. Crisis, Security, and Institutional Rebalancing. “Beyond Outbidding? Ethnic Party Strategies By Jongryn Mo and Barry R. Weingast. in Serbia” by Christina Isabel Zuber Immigration and the Border: Politics and Policy Harvard University Press, 2013. 218 pp. in the Latino Century. Edited by David L. Party Politics, Vol. 19, no. 4, July 2013 Leal and José E. Limón. University of Notre The Logic and Limits of Political Reform in “The Fate of Intra-Party Democracy: Dame Press, 2013. 488 pp. China. By Joseph Fewsmith. Cambridge Leadership Autonomy and Activist Influence University Press, 2013. 219 pp. in the Mass Party and the Cartel Party” by Philosophy and Resistance in the Crisis: Greece New Security Challenges in Asia. Edited by Karl Loxbo and the Future of Europe. By Costas Douzinas. Michael Wills and Robert M. Hathaway. Polity, 2013. 234 pp. Woodrow Wilson Center, 2013. 273 pp. “The Politicization of Indigenous Identities in Peru” by Christopher Raymond and Moisés Political Bubbles: Financial Crises and the Social Organizations and the Authoritarian Arce Failure of American Democracy. By Nolan State in China. By Timothy Hildebrandt. McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Cambridge University Press, 2013. 217 pp. “How Things Fall Apart: Candidate Selection Rosenthal. Princeton University Press, 2013. and the Cohesion of Dominant Parties in 356 pp. Transforming India: Challenges to the World’s South Africa and Namibia” by Shane Mac Largest Democracy. By Sumantra Bose. Giollabhuí Politics of the American Dream: Democratic Harvard University Press, 2013. 337 pp. Inclusion in Contemporary American Political SELECTED NEW BOOKS ON Culture. By Cyril Ghosh. Palgrave Macmillan, EASTERN EUROPE AND THE DEMOCRACY 2013. 240 pp. FORMER SOVIET UNION Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan ADVANCED DEMOCRACIES The Substance of Representation: Congress, Through Peace and War. Revised and Updated The Adversary First Amendment: Free American Political Development, and Edition. By Thomas de Waal. New York Expression and the Foundations of American Lawmaking. By John S. Lapinski. Princeton University Press, 2013. 387 pp. Democracy. By Martin H. Redish. Stanford University Press, 2013. 181 pp. University Press, 2013. 238 pp. Constitution for a Disunited Nation: On ASIA Hungary’s 2011 Fundamental Law. Edited America’s Right: Anti-Establishment Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and by Gábor Attila Tóth. Central European Conservatism from Goldwater to the Tea Party. Pakistan to the Brink and Back. By Bruce University Press, 2012. 570 pp. By Robert B. Horwitz. Polity, 2013. 279 pp. Riedel. Brookings Institution, 2013. 230 pp. Critical Thinking in Slovakia After Socialism. By-Elections in British Politics, 1832–1914. Civil Society in China: The Legal Framework By Jonathan L. Larson. University of Edited by T.G. Otte and Paul Readman. from Ancient Times to the “New Reform Era.” Rochester Press, 2013. 240 pp. Boydell, 2013. 306 pp. By Karla W. Simon. Oxford University Press, 2013. 502 pp. Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Changing Minds, If Not Hearts: Political Love with Vladimir Putin. By Ben Judah. Yale Remedies for Racial Conflict. By James M. Conceptions of Chinese Democracy: Reading University Press, 2013. 379 pp. Glaser and Timothy J. Ryan. University of Sun Yat-sen, Chiang Kai-shek, and Chiang Pennsylvania Press, 2013. 182 pp. Ching-kuo. By David J. Lorenzo. Johns Postcommunism from Within: Social Justice, Hopkins University Press, 2013. 257 pp. Mobilization, and Hegemony. Edited by Jan Congress: A Performance Appraisal. By Kubik and Amy Linch. New York University Andrew J. Taylor. Westview, 2013. 262 pp. Democracy and Islam in Indonesia. Edited by Press, 2013. 440 pp. Mirjam Künkler and Alfred Stepan. Columbia Congress and the Politics of Problem Solving. University Press, 2013. 252 pp.

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Rediscovering the Umma: Muslims in the Power and Regionalism in Latin America: The The Power and the People: Paths of Resistance in Balkans between Nationalism and Politics of Mercosur. By Laura Gómez-Mera. the Middle East. By Charles Tripp. Cambridge Transnationalism. By Ina Merdjanova. Oxford University of Notre Dame Press, 2013. 286 pp. University Press, 2013. 385 pp. University Press, 2013. 198 pp. Race and the Chilean Miracle: Neoliberalism, The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Restless Valley: Revolution, Murder, and Democracy, and Indigenous Rights. By Patricia Democracy, and the Islamist Challenge from Intrigue in the Heart of Central Asia. By Richards. University of Pittsburgh Press, 2013. Tunis to Damascus. By Adeed Dawisha. Philip Shishkin. Yale University Press, 2013. 261 pp. Norton, 2013. 288 pp. 316 pp. Speculative Fictions: Chilean Culture, Social Movements, Mobilization, and LATIN AMERICA AND THE Economics, and the Neoliberal Transition. Contestation in the Middle East and North CARIBBEAN By Alessandro Fornazzari. University of Africa. 2nd Edition. Edited by Joel Beinin Adiós Niño: The Gangs of Guatemala City and Pittsburgh Press, 2013. 158 pp. and Frédéric Vairel. Stanford University Press, the Politics of Death. By Deborah T. Levenson. 2013. 328 pp. Duke University Press, 2013. 183 pp. Sustaining Activism: A Brazilian Women’s Movement and a Father-Daughter Tested by Zion: The Bush Administration and Constructing Democratic Governance in Collaboration. By Jeffrey W. Rubin and Emma the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. By Elliot Latin America. 4th Edition. Edited by Jorge Sokoloff-Rubin. Duke University Press, 2013. Abrams. Cambridge University Press, 2013. I. Domínguez and Michael Shifter. Johns 184 pp. 339 pp. Hopkins University Press, 2013. 377 pp. Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana: Race COMPARATIVE, THEORETICAL, Decentralization and Popular Democracy: and Politics in Two Plural Societies. By Ann GENERAL Governance from Below in Bolivia. By Jean- Marie Bissessar and John Gaffar La Guerre. Accountability and Corruption: A Study into Paul Faguet. University of Michigan Press, Lexington, 2013. 202 pp. Political Institutions as Referees Between 2012. 358 pp. Principals and Agents. By Catharina Groop. Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United Åbo Akademi University Press, 2013. 344 pp. Democracy in Latin America: Between Hope States, and the Road Ahead. By Shannon K. and Despair. By Ignacio Walker, translated O’Neil. Oxford University Press, 2013. 239 pp. Arts of the Political: New Openings for the by Krystin Krause, Holly Bird, and Scott Left. By Ash Amin and Nigel Thrift. Duke Mainwaring. University of Notre Dame Press, We Created Chávez: A People’s History of University Press, 2013. 239 pp. 2013. 262 pp. the Venezuelan Revolution. By George Ciccariello-Maher. Duke University Press, Black Code: Inside the Battle for Cyberspace. By Democratic Governance in Latin America: 2013. 320 pp. Ronald J. Deibert. McClelland and Stewart, A Regional Discussion. Edited by Maria- 2013. 312 pp. Teresa Nogales and Susan Zelaya-Fenner. MIDDLE EAST International Republican Institute, 2013. 124 Democracy’s Fourth Wave? Digital Media and Boundary Control: Subnational pp. the Arab Spring. By Philip N. Howard and Authoritarianism in Federal Democracies. By Muzammil M. Hussain. Oxford University Edward L. Gibson. Cambridge University Globalization and Austerity Politics in Latin Press, 2013. 145 pp. Press, 2012. 192 pp. America. By Stephen B. Kaplan. Cambridge University Press, 2013. 331 pp. Identity and Nation in Iraq. By Sherko Bourgeois Liberty and the Politics of Fear: Kirmanj. Lynne Rienner, 2013. 319 pp. From Absolutism to Neo-Conservatism. By Mexico’s Left: The Paradox of the PRD. By Dag Marc Mulholland. Oxford University Press, Mossige. Lynne Rienner, 2013. 337 pp. The Muslim Brotherhood: Evolution of an 2012. 400 pp. Islamist Movement. By Carrie Rosefsky Mexico’s Once and Future Revolution: Social Wickham. Princeton University Press, 2013. Captured by Evil: The Idea of Corruption in Upheaval and the Challenge of Rule Since 384 pp. Law. By Laura S. Underkuffler. Yale University the Late Nineteenth Century. By Gilbert M. Press, 2013. 334 pp. Joseph and Jürgen Buchenau. Duke University Party Politics and Social Cleavages in Turkey. Press, 2013. 252 pp. By Ergun Özbudun. Lynne Rienner, 2013. 155 pp.

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New Research

Celebrity Politics: Image and Identity in Global Governance: Why? What? Whither? By Politics in the Age of Austerity. Edited by Contemporary Political Communications. By Thomas G. Weiss. Polity, 2013. 225 pp. Armin Schäfer and Wolfgang Streeck. Polity, Mark Wheeler. Polity, 2013. 210 pp. 2013. 320 pp. Gridlock: Why Global Cooperation Is Failing Civil Society in the Age of Monitory Democracy. When We Need It Most. By Thomas Hale, The Politics of Nation-Building: Making Co- Edited by Lars Trägårdh, Nina Witoszek, and David Held, and Kevin Young. Polity, 2013. Nationals, Refugees, and Minorities. By Harris Bron Taylor. Berghahn, 2013. 350 pp. 357 pp. Mylonas. Cambridge University Press, 2012. 255 pp. Climate Governance in the Developing World. Importing Democracy: The Role of NGOs in Edited by David Held, Charles Roger, and South Africa, Tajikistan, & Argentina. By Julie Presidentialism: Power in Comparative Eva-Maria Nag. Polity, 2013. 284 pp. Fisher. Kettering Foundation, 2013. 394 pp. Perspective. By Michael L. Mezey. Lynne Rienner, 2013. 260 pp. The Communist Horizon. By Jodi Dean. Verso, Is Democracy a Lost Cause? Paradoxes of an 2012. 250 pp. Imperfect Invention. By Alfio Mastropaolo. Representation: Elections and Beyond. Edited Translated by Clare Tame. ECPR Press, 2012. by Jack Nagel and Rogers M. Smith. University Cruel Modernity. By Jean Franco. Duke 265 pp. of Pennsylvania Press, 2013. 337 pp. University Press, 2013. 326 pp. Masters of the Word: How Media Shaped The Third Globalization: Can Wealthy Nations Culture and Foreign Policy: The Neglected History from the Alphabet to the Internet. By Stay Rich in the Twenty-First Century? Factor in International Relations. By Howard William J. Bernstein. Grove, 2013. 420 pp. Edited by Dan Breznitz and John Zysman. J. Wiarda. Ashgate, 2013. 153 pp. Oxford University Press, 2013. 416 pp. Military Engagement: Influencing Armed Democracy and the Politics of Electoral System Forces Worldwide to Support Democratic Tocqueville and the Frontiers of Democracy. Choice: Engineering Electoral Dominance. By Transitions, Volume 1, Overview and Edited by Ewa Atanassow and Richard Boyd. Amel Ahmed. Cambridge University Press, Action Plan. By Dennis C. Blair. Brookings Cambridge University Press, 2013. 375 pp. 2013. 228 pp. Institution, 2013. 144 pp. Who Counts? The Power of Participatory Democratic Statecraft: Political Realism and Military Engagement: Influencing Armed Statistics. Edited by Jeremy Holland. Practical Popular Power. By J.S. Maloy. Cambridge Forces Worldwide to Support Democratic Action, 2013. 212 pp. University Press, 2013. 236 pp. Transitions, Volume 2, Regional and Country Studies. Edited by Dennis C. Blair. Brookings Why Ancient Greece? The Birth and Development Aid Confronts Politics: The Institution, 2013. 392 pp. Development of Democracy. By Nicholas Almost Revolution. By Thomas Carothers and Kyriazis. Psichogios, 2012. 127 pp. Diane de Gramont. Carnegie Endowment for Multilevel Citizenship. Edited by Willem International Peace, 2013. 347 pp. Maas. University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013. Why Governments and Parties Manipulate 280 pp. Elections: Theory, Practice and Implications. By The Dialectics of Citizenship: Exploring Alberto Simpser. Cambridge University Press, Privilege, Exclusion, and Racialization. By On the People’s Terms: A Republican Theory 2013. 282 pp. Bernd Reiter. Michigan State University and Model of Democracy. By Philip Pettit. Press, 2013. 196 pp. Cambridge University Press, 2012. 338 pp. Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman. By Jeremy Adelman. Princeton Deliberative Acts: Democracy, Rhetoric, and Our Political Nature: The Evolutionary University Press, 2013. 740 pp. Rights. By Arabella Lyon. Pennsylvania State Origins of What Divides Us. By Avi Tuschman. University Press, 2013. 222 pp. Prometheus, 2013. 543 pp. Wrestling with Democracy: Voting Systems as Politics in the Twentieth-Century West. By The Down-Deep Delight of Democracy. By Pathways to Freedom: Political and Economic Dennis Pilon. University of Toronto Press, Mark Purcell. Wiley-Blackwell, 2013. 174 pp. Lessons from Democratic Transitions. Edited 2013. 392 pp. by Isobel Coleman and Terra Lawson-Remer. The Garments of Court and Palace: Machiavelli Council on Foreign Relations, 2013. 256 pp. Zbig: The Strategy and Statecraft of Zbigniew and the World That He Made.By Philip Bobbit. Brzezinski. Edited by Charles Gati. Johns Grove Press, 2013. 270 pp. Hopkins University Press, 2013. 253 pp.

39 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

Editorial Committee

is the official newsletter of the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization section. Formerly known as CompDem, it has been published three times a year (October, January, and May) by the National Endowment for Democracy’s International Forum for Democratic Studies since 2003. In October 2010, the newsletter was renamed APSA-CD and APSA-CDexpanded to include substantive articles on democracy, as well as news and notes on the latest developments in the field. The newsletter is now jointly produced and edited by faculty members of the University of Florida’s Department of Political Science and the International Forum.

The current issue of APSA-CD is available here. A complete archive of past issues is also available.

To inquire about submitting an article to APSA-CD, please contact Staffan I. Lindberg, Benjamin Smith or Melissa Aten.

Editorial Board Members Executive Editors Michael H. Bernhard is the inaugural holder of the Staffan I. Lindberg is an associate professor of Raymond and Miriam Ehrlich Eminent Scholar political science at the University of Florida. Chair in Political Science at the University of Florida. He is also PI (with John Gerring and Michael His work centers on questions of democratization Coppedge) the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) and development both globally and in the context of project; a research fellow at the Quality of Europe. Among the issues that have figured prominently in his Government Institute, and an associate professor research agenda are the role of civil society in democratization, of political science at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. His institutional choice in new democracies, the political economy of research focuses on state building, political clientelism, political democratic survival, and the legacy of extreme forms of parties, legislative-executive relations, women’s representation, dictatorship. voting behavior, elections, and democracy in Africa. He is the author of Democracy and Elections in Africa ( Johns Hopkins Petia Kostadinova is an assistant professor of University Press, 2006) and the editor of Democratization by political science at the University of Illinois Elections: A New Mode of Transition? ( Johns Hopkins University Chicago (UIC). Dr. Kostadinova’s main area of Press, 2009). research involves the role of citizens’ preferences, and media’s transmission of these preferences, Benjamin Smith is an associate professor of political in shaping social and economic policies in the post-communist science at the University of Florida. His research countries. A second stream of research focuses on the social and focuses on ethnic conflict, regime change, and the economic policies of the European Union. Prof. Kostadinova’s politics of resource wealth. His first book,Hard research has been published in Europe and National Economic Times in the Land of Plenty: Oil Politics in Iran and Indonesia, was Transformation: The EU After the Lisbon Decade, Mitchell Smith, published in 2007 by Cornell University Press, and his articles ed, the European Journal of Communication, the Central European have appeared in World Politics, the American Journal of Political Journal of Communication, and is forthcoming in East European Science, Studies in Comparative International Development, the Politics and Journalism & Mass Communication. Journal of International Affairs, and other journals and edited volumes. Dr. Smith is currently working on a book exploring the Bryon Moraski is an associate professor of political long-term factors that shape the success of separatist movements. science at the University of Florida. His research considers the politics of institutional choice, Members institutional development, and the influence of short- Kate Baldwin is an assistant professor of political term electoral incentives on long-term political trajectories. His science at the University of Florida. She studies first book,Elections by Design: Parties and Patronage in Russia’s state-building, clientelism, and the political economy Regions (Northern Illinois University Press, 2006) explores the of development with a regional focus on sub-Saharan origins of Russia’s sub-national legislative electoral systems. He Africa. Her current research projects seek to has published numerous book chapters and articles, including understand the political consequences of involving non-state works in The American Journal of Political Science, Government and actors, such as traditional chiefs and non-governmental Opposition, and the Journal of Politics. He is currently completing a organizations, in the provision of goods and services. co-authored book manuscript with William Reisinger (University of Iowa) that examines the links between federal elections and gubernatorial (s)election in Russia and their influence on the country’s post-Soviet trajectory.

40 Vol. 11, No. 3 Comparative Democratization Oct. 2013

Editorial Committee

Conor O’Dwyer is an associate professor of political Leonardo A. Villalón is and associate professor of science at the University of Florida. His book political science at the University of Florida. His Runaway State-Building: Patronage Politics and research has focused on Islam and politics and on Democratic Development examines the relationship democratization in West Africa, particularly Senegal, between party-building and state-building in new democracies, Mali, and Niger. He is the author of Islamic Society and looking specifically at the relationship between party competition State Power in Senegal (Cambridge University Press, 1995) and co- and patronage politics in postcommunist Eastern Europe. His editor of The African State at a Critical Juncture: Between latest research examines the European Union’s use of conditionality Disintegration and Reconfiguration(Lynne Rienner, 1998) and The to promote more liberal minorities policies in postcommunist Fate of Africa’s Democratic Experiments: Elites and Institutions states. Specifically, it examines the EU’s role in the contentious (Indiana University Press, 2005), as well as of numerous articles politics of homosexuality in postcommunist societies. Looking and book chapters on politics and religion in West Africa. beyond just policy adoption, it examines the impact of EU- sponsored minority-rights policies: do they lead to shifts in Managing Editor attitudes regarding religious difference, national belonging, and Melissa Aten-Becnel is the senior research and conferences officer minority rights? at the National Endowment for Democracy’s International Forum for Democratic Studies and associate director of the Network of Philip Williams is the director of the Center for Latin Democracy Research Institutes. She earned an M.A. from The American Studies and a professor of political science and George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Latin American Studies at the University of Florida. He Affairs, where she focused on foreign policy and Central Europe. also co-directs the Latin American Immigrants in the New South project. His research interests include religion and Editorial Assistant politics, transnational migration, democratization, social Adam Bilinski received a B.A. in International movements, and civil-military relations. His latest book, A Place to Relations at the University of Warsaw (Poland) and Be: Brazilian, Guatemalan, and Mexican Immigrants in Florida’s M.A. in Social Sciences from the University of New Destinations, was published by Rutgers University Press in Chicago. Currently he is a PhD student in Political 2009 and his articles have appeared in numerous academic journals, Science at the University of Florida with specialization in including Comparative Politics, Latin American Perspectives, Latin comparative politics. His research interests include the problems of Studies, and the Journal of Latin American Studies. survival of democracy, electoral revolutions and democracy promotion. He is currently working on his dissertation, which evaluates how pre-democratization historical legacies (in the form of pre-democratization regime discontinuities and regime type both in independent states and colonies) conditioned the probability of survival of once-established democracies.

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