Where will conservation efforts bring the greatest benefits for native birds?
Susan Walker Landcare Research, Dunedin Wednesday 13th September 2017 Wellington Thanks
Funding MBIE Core Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Thanks
Images Neil Fitzgerald John Innes Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer James Reardon Glenda Rees Peter Scott DOC
Thanks
Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp
Data Ornithological Department of Society of New Conservation Zealand (rodents) (bird atlases)
MAINLAND original land birds
bird fauna Ornithological Society of New Zealand bird atlases
~25 YEARS Bull et al. (1985) 1969-1979 Robertson et al. (2007) 1999-2004 extant bird fauna Ornithological Society of New Zealand bird atlases
‘Probability of occupancy’ Bull et al. (1985) Standardised for different: 1969-1979 - levels of effort Robertson et al. (2007) 1999-2004 - spatial systems birds potentially modelled
Takahē 64 ‘taxa’ Local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas 1 Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 Local occupancy
Rifleman local occupancy Change Atlas 1 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2
1969-1979 1969-1979 to 1999-2004
Increase
Decrease Total range occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas 1 Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 8% 4%
26% 19% Local richness
Number of Change in native bird number of species native bird species Increase Atlas 2 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2 1999-2004 1969-1979 to
1999-2004
Decrease Which birds were in most trouble, and where?
Endemism level Which groups of birds? Habitat group
Environment density of human occupation, land use, Where? deforestation, temperature
MURCHISON MOUNTAINS FROM TE ANAU, JAMES REARDON Which birds were in most trouble, and where?
Endemism level Which groups of birds? Habitat group
Environment density of human occupation, land use, Where? deforestation, temperature Level of endemism
ROB SUISTED Deep endemism Deep endemism
RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Deep endemism
KAKA, JAMES REARDON
Deep endemism
NORTH ISLAND KOKAKO, JOHN INNES Deep endemism
MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST , GLENDA REES ‘Shallower’ (species-level) endemics Coastal waders/terns/gulls NZ dotterel ‘Shallower’
Coastal waders/terns/gulls (species-level) Variable oystercatcher Southern black-backed gull Red-billed gull endemics Caspian tern White-fronted tern Non-endemic native ‘Shallower’ (species-level) Freshwater wetland Grey teal endemics White-faced heron Australian coot Non-endemic native Recently self- introduced (since ~ 1850) Trouble DOING OK
IN SOME TROUBLE
IN SERIOUS TROUBLE
TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION
© EXTINCT Population size / range occupancy Deep endemism = deep trouble
“Species which have had a long evolutionary history in New Zealand seem now to be susceptible to extinction.
This suggests some peculiarity in the evolutionary process … which in a time related manner affects the present viability of the species” (McDowall 1969, p. 8). Endemism = trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years (1969-1979 to 1999-2004)
Order, family and Recently Non-endemic subfamily levels self-introduced native Species level Genus level (‘deep endemics’)
Level of endemism >>> IN SERIOUS DOING OK TROUBLE Spatial distributions vary with endemism level Average local occupancy in 1999-2004
Order, family and Recently Non-endemic subfamily levels self-introduced native Species level Genus level (‘deep endemics’)
SETTLED AND Level of endemism >>> REMOTE FOREST PRODUCTION AND ALPINE LOWLANDS Relative road density (RD)
Road density as an index of human occupation Effects of road density and endemism level Recently self-introduced 0.6 NORTH ISLAND
1999 to 2004
n n n n n
0.3 n Recently self-introduced
1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004 Change
1969 to 1979
0.6 SOUTH ISLAND Increase
n n n n n n n
Local Local occupancy
n n n n n 0.3 n
Relative road density (RD) Effects of road density and endemism level Recently Non-endemic self-introduced native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 0.6 NORTH ISLAND
1999 to 2004
n n n n n
0.3 n
1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004
1969 to 1979 0.6 SOUTH ISLAND
n n n n n n n
Local Local occupancy
n n n n n 0.3 n 1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004
Relative road density (RD) Level of endemism >>> Biotic homogenisation
- Recent arrivals increasing in human occupied landscapes - Deep endemics decreasing in refuges mainly remote from human occupation Six habitat groups
Recently self-introduced 20 Non-endemic native
Species-level Genus-level 15 Subfamily-level ‘deep Family-level endemics’ Order-level
10 Numbertaxa birdof
5
0 Forest Wader/tern/gull Wader/tern/gull Freshwater Coastal Other (breeds inland) (coastal breeding) wetland wetland open habitats Bird group Doing OK Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years
Coastal-breeding Freshwater Birds of coastal Birds of other wading birds, terns & wetland birds wetlands and shores open habitats gulls (n = 6) (n = 17) (n = 5) (n = 7)
Increase In some, or serious, trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years
Forest birds Inland-breeding (n = 22) wading birds, terns & gulls (n = 7)
Decrease Birds in most trouble Inland-breeding wading birds, terns Wrybill and gulls
BANDED DOTTEREL, TASMAN VALLEY, © CRAIG MACKENZIE TASMAN VALLEY AND MT COOK, PETER SCOTT PUKAKI OUTWASH PLAIN, SIMONS PASS, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls
Average local occupancy Average local occupancy Change Atlas 1 Atlas 2 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 1969-1979 to 1999-2004
WRYBILL CHICK, MACKENZIE BASIN, DOC
AHURIRI OUTWASH PLAIN, KILLERMONT, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Environmental predictors of local occupancy change
Distance from Percent of Relative the coast square level of (km) under crops, urbanisation pasture or (in 2001) exotic forestry (in 2001)
Land use and urbanisation effects
High % Low % agriculture and forestry agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland 1.0 NORTH ISLAND
Non-endemic native
0.5 Pied stilt Species-level endemics Banded dotterel Black billed gull 1.0 SOUTH ISLAND Black-fronted tern 1969 to 1979 Black stilt SI pied oystercatcher
Local Local occupancy 0.5 1999 to 2004
Genus-level endemic Wrybill
Level of endemism >>> Land use and urbanisation effects
High % Low % agriculture and forestry agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland Urbanisation effect 1.0 NORTH ISLAND 0.4
1999 to 2004 0.5 0.2 1969 to 1979
1.0 SOUTH ISLAND 0.4 1969 to 1979
Local Local occupancy 0.5 1999 to 2004 0.2
Low Med. High Level of Level of endemism >>> urbanisation Land use plays a role
Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls - greater declines in inland South Island breeding areas developed for agriculture and forestry - greater increases in winter feeding areas surrounded by more urban development Remaining` forest birds
Long-tailed cuckoo Yellow-crowned parakeet Rifleman Falcon Kōkako Tomtit Kea Robin Kākā Weka (all) Kererū Whitehead Shining cuckoo Grey warbler Bellbird Mōhua Silvereye Morepork Fantail Tūi Blue duck Brown creeper Kiwi (all)
Level of endemism >>> Forest birds need forest Endemic forest birds Native forest cover 1999-2004 At human Now settlement
Average occupancy probability Average
WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Endemic forest birds need forest more Endemic forest birds 1999-2004
Average occupancy probability Average Endemic forest birds need forest more Non- >>> Species- & genus- >>> Deep endemics level endemics endemics Forest now
0
1.0 1.0 0.5
00 0.0 0.0 0.0
WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Level of endemism >>> Effects of forest cover and endemism level
Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 1.0 NORTH ISLAND
0.5
1969 to 1979
1.0 SOUTH ISLAND
1999 to 2004 Local Local occupancy 0.5
1969 to 1979
0 100% Amount of forest 1999 to 2004 Level of endemism >>> Deep endemic forest birds
Average local Change Forest now occupancy 1969-1979 to probability 1999-2004 1969-1979 Effects of forest cover and endemism level on forest birds Recently Non-endemic self-introduced native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 1.0 NORTH ISLAND
0.5
1969 to 1979
1.0 SOUTH ISLAND
1999 to 2004 Local Local occupancy 0.5
1969 to 1979
0 100% Amount of forest 1999 to 2004 Level of endemism >>> Not all forests are equal
PAPAROA NATIONAL PARK, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal
Ship rat
JOHN INNES, LANDCARE RESEARCH Predator patterns Ship rats
A B C D ‘Rat forest’ classes E F
WALKER ET AL (LANDCARE RESEARCH AND DOC, IN PREP) DOC’s rodent tracking SAMPLING FREQUENCY # 1 tunnel dataset # 1 to 4 # 4 to 10 # 10 to 30 # >30 Indigenous forest >250,000 records or subalpine scrub 1999 to present
HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, but RATS RARE
COLDER HIGH, BEECHY LOW ELEVATION IRRUPTIVE ALWAYS RATTY MICE, RATS RARE > FEW MICE
COLDER WARMER
‘Rat forest’ classes
1.0 RAT FOREST CLASS
A 0.8 most ‘continuously B rate ratty’ forests C D 0.6 E F
0.4
0.2 Unmanaged tracking tracking Unmanaged
0.0
min 10 20 30 40 median 60 70 80 90 max Ship rat tracking percentile through time ‘Rat forest’ classes
1.0
0.8 rate ‘irruptive’ rat forests 0.6
0.4
0.2 Unmanaged tracking tracking Unmanaged
0.0
min 10 20 30 40 median 60 70 80 90 max Ship rat tracking percentile through time Temperature ˷ ship rats
‘irruptive’ rat forests
‘Rat forest’ forest’ ‘Rat class most ‘continuously ratty’
Mean annual temperature >>> Ratty forests are warm non-beech forests
200
‘irruptive’
rat forests Beechiness (stems hectare) per (stems most ‘continuously 0 ratty’
Mean annual temperature >>> Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Forests in squares with remaining forest
WARMER FORESTS
COLDER FORESTS Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Endemic forest birds in forests in squares with remaining forest
0.5
1970s
WARMER FORESTS Local occupancy Local 25 years later 0.0
COLDER FORESTS Mean annual temperature >>> Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests
Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests
0.5 Species Genus Family Order level level level level
South Island
Local occupancy Local North 0.0 Island COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM Level of endemism >>>
Kākā 0.5
NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s
Early 2000s Local occupancy Local
0.0
COLD > WARM
WALKER,KAKA: JAMES MONKS REARDON & INNES (2017)
Blue duck/whio 0.5
NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s
Early 2000s Local occupancy Local
0.0
COLD > WARM
WHIO FORAGING: NEIL FITZGERALD
Mohua 0.5
SOUTH ISLAND 1970s
Early 2000s Local occupancy Local
0.0
COLD > WARM
MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST : GLENDA REES
Rifleman 0.5
NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s
Early 2000s Local occupancy Local
0.0
COLD > WARM
RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Warm forests are a bigger management challenge than beech forest Scale is key: ability to • maintain low ship rat numbers • over very large forest areas • cost-effectively • without unintended consequences
KEA : JAMES MORTIMER Conclusions
1. Homogenisation continues • loss of remaining deep endemics, in forests and the alpine zone • takeover by a recently arrived weedy avifauna, especially in human-modified landscapes
SINBAD VALLEY, FIORDLAND, JAMES REARDON Conclusions
2. Humans have played and are still playing major roles • Past deforestation is likely to limit endemic forest bird recovery, and opportunity to keep and restore large populations lies in remaining forests. • Development of inland South Island basins is now foreclosing options for inland breeding wading birds, terns & gulls. Conclusions
3. Not all forests are equal • Ability to effectively and cheaply control rodents at large scales in warm forests will be a key management tipping point Acknowledgements
Adrian Monks Craig Mackenzie John Innes Rachel McLennan Graeme Elliott James Mortimer Josh Kemp Peter Scott Birds New Zealand
Glenda Rees https://www.facebook.com/NZBANP/ https://www.instagram.com/glenda_rees/