Where will conservation efforts bring the greatest benefits for native ?

Susan Walker Landcare Research, Dunedin Wednesday 13th September 2017 Wellington Thanks

Funding MBIE Core Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Thanks

Images Neil Fitzgerald John Innes Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer James Reardon Glenda Rees Peter Scott DOC

Thanks

Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp

Data Ornithological Department of Society of New Conservation Zealand (rodents) ( atlases)

MAINLAND original land birds

bird fauna Ornithological Society of bird atlases

~25 YEARS Bull et al. (1985) 1969-1979 Robertson et al. (2007) 1999-2004 extant bird fauna Ornithological Society of New Zealand bird atlases

‘Probability of occupancy’ Bull et al. (1985) Standardised for different: 1969-1979 - levels of effort Robertson et al. (2007) 1999-2004 - spatial systems birds potentially modelled

Takahē 64 ‘taxa’ Local occupancy local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas 1 Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 Local occupancy

Rifleman local occupancy Change Atlas 1 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2

1969-1979 1969-1979 to 1999-2004

Increase

Decrease Total range occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas 1 Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 8% 4%

26% 19% Local richness

Number of Change in native bird number of species native bird species Increase Atlas 2 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2 1999-2004 1969-1979 to

1999-2004

Decrease Which birds were in most trouble, and where?

Endemism level Which groups of birds? Habitat group

Environment density of human occupation, land use, Where? deforestation, temperature

MURCHISON MOUNTAINS FROM , JAMES REARDON Which birds were in most trouble, and where?

Endemism level Which groups of birds? Habitat group

Environment density of human occupation, land use, Where? deforestation, temperature Level of endemism

ROB SUISTED Deep endemism Deep endemism

RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Deep endemism

KAKA, JAMES REARDON

Deep endemism

NORTH ISLAND KOKAKO, JOHN INNES Deep endemism

MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST , GLENDA REES ‘Shallower’ (species-level) endemics Coastal waders/terns/gulls NZ dotterel ‘Shallower’

Coastal waders/terns/gulls (species-level) Variable oystercatcher Southern black-backed gull Red-billed gull endemics Caspian tern White-fronted tern Non-endemic native ‘Shallower’ (species-level) Freshwater wetland Grey teal endemics White-faced heron Australian coot Non-endemic native Recently self- introduced (since ~ 1850) Trouble DOING OK

IN SOME TROUBLE

IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION

© EXTINCT Population size / range occupancy Deep endemism = deep trouble

“Species which have had a long evolutionary history in New Zealand seem now to be susceptible to extinction.

This suggests some peculiarity in the evolutionary process … which in a time related manner affects the present viability of the species” (McDowall 1969, p. 8). Endemism = trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years (1969-1979 to 1999-2004)

Order, family and Recently Non-endemic subfamily levels self-introduced native Species level Genus level (‘deep endemics’)

Level of endemism >>> IN SERIOUS DOING OK TROUBLE Spatial distributions vary with endemism level Average local occupancy in 1999-2004

Order, family and Recently Non-endemic subfamily levels self-introduced native Species level Genus level (‘deep endemics’)

SETTLED AND Level of endemism >>> REMOTE FOREST PRODUCTION AND ALPINE LOWLANDS Relative road density (RD)

Road density as an index of human occupation Effects of road density and endemism level Recently self-introduced 0.6 NORTH ISLAND

1999 to 2004

n n n n n

0.3 n Recently self-introduced

1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004 Change

1969 to 1979

0.6 Increase

n n n n n n n

Local Local occupancy

n n n n n 0.3 n

Relative road density (RD) Effects of road density and endemism level Recently Non-endemic self-introduced native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 0.6 NORTH ISLAND

1999 to 2004

n n n n n

0.3 n

1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004

1969 to 1979 0.6 SOUTH ISLAND

n n n n n n n

Local Local occupancy

n n n n n 0.3 n 1969 to 1979 1999 to 2004

Relative road density (RD) Level of endemism >>> Biotic homogenisation

- Recent arrivals increasing in human occupied landscapes - Deep endemics decreasing in refuges mainly remote from human occupation Six habitat groups

Recently self-introduced 20 Non-endemic native

Species-level Genus-level 15 Subfamily-level ‘deep Family-level endemics’ Order-level

10 Numbertaxa birdof

5

0 Forest Wader/tern/gull Wader/tern/gull Freshwater Coastal Other (breeds inland) (coastal breeding) wetland wetland open habitats Bird group Doing OK Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years

Coastal-breeding Freshwater Birds of coastal Birds of other wading birds, terns & wetland birds wetlands and shores open habitats gulls (n = 6) (n = 17) (n = 5) (n = 7)

Increase In some, or serious, trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years

Forest birds Inland-breeding (n = 22) wading birds, terns & gulls (n = 7)

Decrease Birds in most trouble Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls

BANDED DOTTEREL, TASMAN VALLEY, © CRAIG MACKENZIE TASMAN VALLEY AND MT COOK, PETER SCOTT PUKAKI OUTWASH PLAIN, SIMONS PASS, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls

Average local occupancy Average local occupancy Change Atlas 1 Atlas 2 Atlas 1 to Atlas 2 1969-1979 1999-2004 1969-1979 to 1999-2004

WRYBILL CHICK, MACKENZIE BASIN, DOC

AHURIRI OUTWASH PLAIN, KILLERMONT, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Environmental predictors of local occupancy change

Distance from Percent of Relative the coast square level of (km) under crops, urbanisation pasture or (in 2001) exotic forestry (in 2001)

Land use and urbanisation effects

High % Low % agriculture and forestry agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland 1.0 NORTH ISLAND

Non-endemic native

0.5 Pied stilt Species-level endemics Banded dotterel Black billed gull 1.0 SOUTH ISLAND Black-fronted tern 1969 to 1979 SI pied oystercatcher

Local Local occupancy 0.5 1999 to 2004

Genus-level endemic Wrybill

Level of endemism >>> Land use and urbanisation effects

High % Low % agriculture and forestry agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland Urbanisation effect 1.0 NORTH ISLAND 0.4

1999 to 2004 0.5 0.2 1969 to 1979

1.0 SOUTH ISLAND 0.4 1969 to 1979

Local Local occupancy 0.5 1999 to 2004 0.2

Low Med. High Level of Level of endemism >>> urbanisation Land use plays a role

Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls - greater declines in inland South Island breeding areas developed for agriculture and forestry - greater increases in winter feeding areas surrounded by more urban development Remaining` forest birds

Long-tailed cuckoo Yellow-crowned parakeet Rifleman Falcon Robin Kākā (all) Kererū Shining cuckoo Bellbird Mōhua Morepork Fantail Tūi Brown creeper (all)

Level of endemism >>> Forest birds need forest Endemic forest birds Native forest cover 1999-2004 At human Now settlement

Average occupancy probability Average

WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Endemic forest birds need forest more Endemic forest birds 1999-2004

Average occupancy probability Average Endemic forest birds need forest more Non- >>> Species- & genus- >>> Deep endemics level endemics endemics Forest now

0

1.0 1.0 0.5

00 0.0 0.0 0.0

WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Level of endemism >>> Effects of forest cover and endemism level

Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 1.0 NORTH ISLAND

0.5

1969 to 1979

1.0 SOUTH ISLAND

1999 to 2004 Local Local occupancy 0.5

1969 to 1979

0 100% Amount of forest 1999 to 2004 Level of endemism >>> Deep endemic forest birds

Average local Change Forest now occupancy 1969-1979 to probability 1999-2004 1969-1979 Effects of forest cover and endemism level on forest birds Recently Non-endemic self-introduced native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels 1.0 NORTH ISLAND

0.5

1969 to 1979

1.0 SOUTH ISLAND

1999 to 2004 Local Local occupancy 0.5

1969 to 1979

0 100% Amount of forest 1999 to 2004 Level of endemism >>> Not all forests are equal

PAPAROA NATIONAL PARK, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal

Ship rat

JOHN INNES, LANDCARE RESEARCH Predator patterns Ship rats

A B C D ‘Rat forest’ classes E F

WALKER ET AL (LANDCARE RESEARCH AND DOC, IN PREP) DOC’s rodent tracking SAMPLING FREQUENCY # 1 tunnel dataset # 1 to 4 # 4 to 10 # 10 to 30 # >30 Indigenous forest >250,000 records or subalpine scrub 1999 to present

HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, but RATS RARE

COLDER HIGH, BEECHY LOW ELEVATION IRRUPTIVE ALWAYS RATTY MICE, RATS RARE > FEW MICE

COLDER WARMER

‘Rat forest’ classes

1.0 RAT FOREST CLASS

A 0.8 most ‘continuously B rate ratty’ forests C D 0.6 E F

0.4

0.2 Unmanaged tracking tracking Unmanaged

0.0

min 10 20 30 40 median 60 70 80 90 max Ship rat tracking percentile through time ‘Rat forest’ classes

1.0

0.8 rate ‘irruptive’ rat forests 0.6

0.4

0.2 Unmanaged tracking tracking Unmanaged

0.0

min 10 20 30 40 median 60 70 80 90 max Ship rat tracking percentile through time Temperature ˷ ship rats

‘irruptive’ rat forests

‘Rat forest’ forest’ ‘Rat class most ‘continuously ratty’

Mean annual temperature >>> Ratty forests are warm non-beech forests

200

‘irruptive’

rat forests Beechiness (stems hectare) per (stems most ‘continuously 0 ratty’

Mean annual temperature >>> Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Forests in squares with remaining forest

WARMER FORESTS

COLDER FORESTS Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Endemic forest birds in forests in squares with remaining forest

0.5

1970s

WARMER FORESTS Local occupancy Local 25 years later 0.0

COLDER FORESTS Mean annual temperature >>> Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests

Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests

0.5 Species Genus Family Order level level level level

South Island

Local occupancy Local North 0.0 Island COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM Level of endemism >>>

Kākā 0.5

NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s

Early 2000s Local occupancy Local

0.0

COLD > WARM

WALKER,KAKA: JAMES MONKS REARDON & INNES (2017)

Blue duck/whio 0.5

NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s

Early 2000s Local occupancy Local

0.0

COLD > WARM

WHIO FORAGING: NEIL FITZGERALD

Mohua 0.5

SOUTH ISLAND 1970s

Early 2000s Local occupancy Local

0.0

COLD > WARM

MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST : GLENDA REES

Rifleman 0.5

NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s

Early 2000s Local occupancy Local

0.0

COLD > WARM

RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Warm forests are a bigger management challenge than beech forest Scale is key: ability to • maintain low ship rat numbers • over very large forest areas • cost-effectively • without unintended consequences

KEA : JAMES MORTIMER Conclusions

1. Homogenisation continues • loss of remaining deep endemics, in forests and the alpine zone • takeover by a recently arrived weedy avifauna, especially in human-modified landscapes

SINBAD VALLEY, , JAMES REARDON Conclusions

2. Humans have played and are still playing major roles • Past deforestation is likely to limit endemic forest bird recovery, and opportunity to keep and restore large populations lies in remaining forests. • Development of inland South Island basins is now foreclosing options for inland breeding wading birds, terns & gulls. Conclusions

3. Not all forests are equal • Ability to effectively and cheaply control rodents at large scales in warm forests will be a key management tipping point Acknowledgements

Adrian Monks Craig Mackenzie John Innes Rachel McLennan Graeme Elliott James Mortimer Josh Kemp Peter Scott Birds New Zealand

Glenda Rees https://www.facebook.com/NZBANP/ https://www.instagram.com/glenda_rees/