Joint Market Monitoring

Situation in Critical Markets along the Line of Contact in Northern Donetsk and Luhansk GCA

August-September 2017

Table of Contents Abbreviations ...... 3 Key findings ...... 4 Context ...... 5 Rationale for a joint assessment ...... 5 Scope of the study ...... 6 Methodology ...... 8 Findings ...... 10 Food ...... 10 Non-food items – Hygiene ...... 16 Non-food items – Fuel (Coal and Firewood) ...... 18 Non-food items – Construction materials ...... 19 Medications ...... 21 Agricultural inputs ...... 21 Financial Institutions ...... 22 Conclusions ...... 23 Lessons learned and next steps ...... 24 Annexes ...... 25 Annex 1 - Terms of Reference for Joint Market Monitoring ...... 25 Annex 2 – Trader’s Survey ...... 28 Annex 3 – Customer’s survey ...... 31 Annex 4 – Availability and Price Matrixes ...... 32 Annex 5 – Price Diagrams ...... 35

Abbreviations

ABA – Area Based Assessment

ACF – Action Contre la Faim

ACTED - Agence d'Aide à la Coopération Technique et au Développement

CaLP – Cash Learning Partnership

CBI – Cash-based intervention

GCA – Government controlled areas

KI – Key informant

NGCA – Non-government controlled areas

MDM – Médécins du Monde

MM – Market monitoring

NRC – Norwegian Refugee Council

PIN – People in Need

SCI – Save the Children International

Key findings

The survey of 20 market centers along the contact line in Luhansk and Northern Donetsk oblast GCA provides a comprehensive picture of the markets in the area. Below are the main finding of the market monitoring survey, for summer season 2017:

 The market systems in the region have the capacity to supply the population with basic goods (food and non-food items, medicines). These goods are available in all the locations assessed, which supports the assumption that cash-based interventions are an appropriate modality for food security and basic NFI assistance, provided that the beneficiaries have access to the marketplace1.

 High price remains the main barrier in accessing goods on the market for the majority of consumers. This conclusion applies to all commodity groups. In all markets sectors the prices have reportedy increased in the last 3 months prior to the survey (July-August 2017).

 Areas with lower than average price level for basic goods are Bakhmut and Popasna. The prices are gradually increasing with the distance from these two centers, and reach highest levels in Kurakhove and Stanytsia Luhanska market centers.

 Financial institutions appear to be operational in the majority of locations (with the exception of three locations).

 No particular difficulties or bottlenecks regarding supply chains of basic goods (food and essential hygiene goods) were detected: most retailers reported no difficulties with supply of these categories of products.

 For non-essential NFI items, such as fuel, construction materials and agricultural inputs, the markets are mostly functioning, the products are generally available with the exception of some locations.

 Wood is more widely available than coal with on-demand delivery. The prices for both coal and firewood are reported to have increased in the three months prior to the survey.

 Construction materials are available in practically all locations, either immediately or on demand. However, asbestos-free roofing slates are not common and only available in a few locations.

 Fertilizer is not available in all locations, but locally sourced stock fodder (chicken, pig, cow feed) is widely available. However, specialized stock fodder is rarely used: livestock are fed grains and agricultural byproducts (bran, oil cake)

1 At the same time, the market monitoring survey did not cover isolated communities that might have difficulties accessing the market regarding transportation. These communities should be covered in the next round of market monitoring survey. 4

Context Armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, caused disruption of livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people. Despite the efforts of the government of Ukraine, and of national and international humanitarian agencies that have been providing emergency and recovery assistance to conflict-affected population, the needs remain acute: currently, according to the 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan, 0.8 mln people in government-controlled area require humanitarian assistance2, and of them about 0.2 mln are concentrated along the contact line3.

At the current stage of the conflict, where the line of contact has stabilized, the market systems of the conflict affected areas along the line of contact have mostly restored their capacity to provide the population with critical food and non-food items4. This recovery of the market systems has favoured the increasing adoption of cash-based modalities of intervention by humanitarian actors, as opposed to in-kind assistance prevalent earlier. Cash-based interventions, however, require that agencies monitor very closely the capacity of the markets to supply key products to the population, in order to ensure that, on the one hand, cash-based assistance allows people to cover their essential survival and livelihood needs (or specific goods for targeted assistance), and, on the other hand, that the infusion of cash does not disrupt the markets, deplete the stocks, causing deficits and price hikes.

In order to support CBI along the contact line in Luhansk and Donetsk region, agencies that provide cash assistance have decided to conduct regular joint monitoring of critical markets. The goal of market monitoring is to ensure that CBI are feasible and appropriate in every location along the line of contact and do not cause harmful unintended consequences.

Rationale for a joint assessment Cash based interventions in the context of humanitarian emergency have the advantage of offering the affected people choice and flexibility in covering their needs, increasing empowerment and dignity. Application of CBI is known to reduce resorting to negative coping strategies, and, compared to non-market interventions, CBI have the added positive consequences of revitalizing local trade and contributing to the economic recovery of the communities affected by emergencies5.

The main objective of the current joint market monitoring is to support cash-based interventions in humanitarian and early recovery programming in Ukraine, along the contact line, GCA. In practice, MM should provide support to programming in achieving the following objectives:

- Ensure that markets are functioning and accessible, basic goods are fully available at reasonable prices and the cash amount distributed to beneficiaries is adequate regarding meeting basic needs of the conflict-affected population. - Ensure that cash-based interventions will cause no harm to the local communities and markets, by, for example, having a negative effect on supply, provoking a deficit or a price hike. - Support the programme cycle in deciding on the modalities of intervention, inform decisions on market, non-market, and hybrid responses.

These objectives inform the research questions of the market monitoring study (see also Terms of reference of the MM study, annex 1):

- What are the capacities of the key market systems to supply conflict-affected population? Are there any shortages, restrictions, breakdowns in market infrastructure that may cause the ability to satisfy the demand?

2 Ukraine 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan 3 REACH Area based assessment 2017, forthcoming 4 REACH Area based assessment 2017, forthcoming 5 CaLP “Minimum Requirements For Market Analysis In Emergencies” 5

- What are the conditions of access of conflict-affected population to critical markets? Are there any limitations (geographical, sectoral) to the use of CBI in humanitarian programming?

This study focuses on the exploration of critical market systems which cover both essential goods that are necessary to ensure survival (such as food items, medicines or hygiene items) and non-essential goods that support the livelihoods of the conflict affected population (such as construction materials and agricultural inputs).

Scope of the study The current market monitoring study follows the recommendations put forward by CaLP minimum standards6 for market analysis in emergencies, and is an adaptation of several standard tools for market analysis. The choice of the tools has been determined by the objectives of the present market monitoring exercise and the context of the situation in the area of analysis.

Market monitoring relies heavily on the results of the REACH ABA7 in determining the geographic scope of the assessment and on the inputs from clusters and humanitarian actors in defining the analytical scope of the study. Geographic scope: The assessment is limited to areas along the contact line in GCA, where significant humanitarian emergency persists. The line of contact has divided previous (pre-conflict) markets and service catchment areas, severing established linkages between suppliers and consumers. As a consequence, the reorganization of markets has occurred, and new linkages have emerged, which still might lack the capacity to service changing demand.

In addition, overall depression of economic activity, caused by disruption of value chains and supply chains, has decreased the size of the markets in the area along the contact line, creating gaps, deficits and disruptions.

In order to obtain a picture disruption and reorganization of markets caused by the conflict, this market monitoring study is informed by the analysis accomplished in REACH ABA where new, post-conflict market areas are outlined, new linkages described, and areas where markets have limited provision of goods are identified. These findings have allowed to identify which new market areas have now formed along the contact line, and the centers and peripheries of these market areas.

The present market monitoring study covers 20 settlements. 17 of them are centers of their respective market areas of varying scopes (Figure 1) identified in REACH ABA. Other 3 locations (Verkhnya Vilkhova, Zolote and Makarove) have been additionally included as the ones being of particular interest for partners. Analytical scope In each of the identified market centers, this present MM study covers critical markets of essential survival items, and items that are necessary for maintaining and restoring livelihoods of the conflict-affected population. Market sectors and specific items within each sector were identified following inter-agency consultations and consultations with respective clusters. As a result, the study focuses on the following market sectors:

- Key food items, which cover a varied diet, - Select non-food items: hygiene materials and winterization materials (hard fuel, wood and coal), - Key construction materials, - Key agricultural inputs, stock feed and fertilizers, - Key medicines.

6 CaLP “Minimum Requirements For Market Analysis In Emergencies” 7 REACH Area based assessment 2017 6

Figure 1 – Market catchment areas covered by the study

Following the CaLP Minimum requirements recommendation, the study is limited to two market systems:

1. Small and medium retail traders – shops and market stands – for all food and NFI items (except fuel), construction materials and agricultural inputs; 2. Independent traders that perform deliveries of fuel, firewood and coal.

Market monitoring is intended as iterative exercise, aimed not only at providing a snapshot of the situation at the moment of data collection, but at obtaining a time-dependent picture of the markets and allowing early detection of trends in prices and supply chains. The present report analyzes the information obtained in the summer round of the study; the study will be repeated seasonally (quarterly), following the same 7 methodology, in order to detect changes and tendencies that affect markets, be they seasonal or of any other nature.

Limitations of the study Geographically, the study is limited to market centers along the contact line, and all the conclusions of the study are only valid on the level of the central settlements within their respective markets: thus any market deficits and access barriers on the level of peripheral settlements are not covered by the study8.

In addition, the study covers the markets along the contact line only in Luhansk and Northern Donetsk GCA oblasts. The markets in Southern Donetsk GCA along the contact line were not part of this monitoring exercise since the partner agencies participating the in the study have no operational presence there. Methodology The methodology of this MM study follows the guidelines established by CaLP minimum requirements to market assessment, and represent a balance between the need to collect valid and representative data, under the constraints of limitations of time, resources and staff of the participating agencies.

The current market consisted of 1) a survey of traders, and 2) a survey of customers in each market location. A trained team of data collectors visited each location and conducting face-to face surveys with traders and with customers. 1. Trader survey The traders were surveyed by mobile teams through visits on locations and interviews (see questionnaire, annex 2). For each market sector a pre-defined number of traders per each market sector in each settlement were interviewed by mobile teams. For each article, the following data were collected in the surcey:

- Prices for each of the articles, and the specifications of the products - Any variations in prices in the past 3 months - Estimate of current demand, and any variations in demand in the past 3 months - Size of stock - Suppliers for each market sector - Market bottlenecks, difficulties in delivery of goods

The size of the sample was determined in such a way as to provide a representative picture of the markets in each location. For markets in essential goods two or more traders were surveyed, and for markets in non- essential goods at least one trader had to be identified and surveyed. Traders could be large (e.g. supermarkets), medium (shops) or small (kiosks, market stalls). Very often larger retailers trade in more than one market sectors: they were interviewed in all the sectors they trade in.

Table 1, below is a summary of actually accomplished number of surveys.

Table 1 – number of surveys conducted

Customers 61 Retailers 112 Food 48 Hygiene 48 Fuel 10 Construction materials 30 Agricultural inputs 17

8 Expanding market monitoring to the markets on the level of small settlements (admin 4 geographical level of analysis) is recommended as the next logical step in the next round of this study, if sufficient resources are mobilized. This additional study should cover the settlements, where limited access to markets and transport problems with accessing regional markets were reported. 8

Customer survey During the customer survey (see questionnaire, annex 3) customers in each market location were interviewed by the method of convenience sampling9. The study was designed in such a way as to interview at least 3 customers in each location; this goal was accomplished in all settlements except one (where only two customers were interviewed).

The customers were interviewed on the following themes:

- Availability of goods from each market sector on the local market - If goods are not available locally, what markets are used to access the goods - Price levels and trends on the local market for each market sector - Difficulties with accessing markets - Local availability and ease of access to financial services (banks, ATMs)

The results of the trader survey and of the customer survey were combined to provide a snapshot picture of each of the local markets.

9 Convenience sampling is appropriate in the context of the study since the goal of the study is to collect knowledge about the markets which is assumed to be widely available locally. At the same time, the method of convenience sampling showed its limitations in the present survey: in certain location it was not possible to collect information on certain non-essential market sectors, such as construction materials or fuel, as none of the people surveyed needed these goods and had information about respective markets. 9

Findings Cross-sectorial analysis of customers’ perception of availability and price level allows to conclude that basic goods (food and hygiene items) and medications are overall fully available. The exceptions to this were Schaste, Avdiivka and Ocheretyne where either majority or all the respondents reported partial availability of hygiene items. The responses of Verkhnia Vilkhova residents indicate that construction materials, medications and coal are unavailable in the location, however, this settlement has an administrative (and therefore market) center in Nizhnya Vilkhova which is 1 km away and where all the missing goods proved to be available.

The analysis of solid fuel availability (both coal and firewood) has revealed a lack of data which proved to be more common in larger locations where centralized heating is the norm. Comparing two of the most common types of solid fuel used by local residents, firewood appears to be more readily available than coal, which is connected to transport issues, as, in particular, the eastern part of Lughansk GCA (Stanychno-Lughanskiy rayon) is rather far removed from operational coal mines of the region.

Price level for all commodity groups is mostly reported as high by consumers. However, in larger cities (Lisichansk, Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka) the prices are perceived as affordable more frequently than in smaller locations. It is equally worth noting that all respondents in Zolote described that food, hygiene items, medications and construction materials are “reasonably” priced. The comparison of price levels as expressed by consumers versus the ones reported by traders is shown below, per sector. Full availability and price level matrixes based on customer’s perception are presented in Annex 4.

In the remainder of this section of the MM report each market sector is analyzed separately, and in detail - both from the point of view of the customers and that of the traders. Food Accessibility The analysis of difficulties in accessing goods on the markets has shown that the main problem faced by customers is high price (reported by 81% respondents in 19 out of 20 locations). Although this finding is at variance with ABA conclusions, which indicate distance and cost of transport as main challenges to accessing markets, it should be noted, that the sample of target locations in this survey focuses on centers of market areas and, therefore, any difficulties related to distance and travel appear to be of secondary importance for local population. Table 2 shows the percentage of respondents and locations where the specific problem in accessing markets was indicated.

Table 2 – Difficulties in accessing markets Respondents Locations

81% High price 95% 15% Assortment problems 35% 5% Poor quality 10% 19% Transport problems 35% 7% Safety 10% Other than high price, the respondents interviewed in Stanytsia Luhanska and Novyi Aidar particularly specified transport problems in accessing the markets. The issue of safety and security was raised by everyone questioned in Avdiivka. The assortment problems were reported by some respondents in smaller locations

(Verkhnia Vilkhova, Novhorodske, Ocheretyne etc.) and were mostly related to specific items, e.g. infant formula, school materials, some hygiene items. Availability and prices The general conclusion that comes out of the analysis based both on retailers’ and customers’ responses shows that food is available in all of the locations assessed which is expectable according to the methodology used for location sampling (see Methodology above). Nevertheless only in 2 locations all the customers reported affordable prices for food items while in the rest either all or the majority of respondents considered the prices to be high (Table 3).

Table 3 – Affordability of food

High prices 90%

Affordable prices 10% In Zolote, Lisichansk Furthermore, in 90% locations (except Bakhmut and Toretsk) the trend of growing prices for food in the previous 3 months was reported by customers. Retailers flagged small but steady increase in prices for food as well, particularly highlighting eggs, poultry and alcohol drinks as those that had increased in price significantly. The likely reasons for price increase can relate to the following factors:

- For alcohol – to the changes in Ukrainian legislation regarding minimal retail prices for alcohol10. - For poultry and eggs - to the increase in poultry exports to the EU due to the opened markets, as well as increase in electricity and gas tariffs and in animal feeds prices. These factors affect all of the country, and not only the area studied in the survey11.

The quantitative analysis of food markets as well as other market sectors has been performed based on averaging price data per item with the results visualized in diagrams below. Figure 2 illustrates the average prices for the item “eggs” provided by way of example.

Figure 2 - Average price per location (eggs)

25 22.50 20.75 20.00 19.00 18.30 18.63 20 17.83 17.50 17.70 17.90 17.00 16.60 16.75 15.30 15.95 15.50 16 14.00 14.50 15 11.80

The diagram reflects the increase in price reported by retailers and described above – the data for Luhansk oblast (e.g. Schastia, Stanytsia Luhanska, Hirske) were collected 1-2 weeks earlier than for Donetsk oblast (e.g. Novhorodske, Vuhledar, Kurakhove) and reflects the exact moment of price increasing.

10 https://ukropnews24.com/in-ukraine-increased-excise-taxes-on-alcohol-and-cigarettes/ 11 http://open4business.com.ua/ukraine-increases-exports-agricultural-products-24-5-jan-aug-ministry/ 11

Similar diagrams for all food items are presented in Annex 5. While the data collected on prices would allow to analyze the prices of each item separately, detailed price analysis has not been conducted for this study, since the focus is rather on identification of outliers and comparative price analysis.

This survey identified a group of price outliers in each market sector. Upon investigation, it appears that a part of the difference in prices is an artefact of data collection, rather than a reflection of a real price difference: it is due to the differences in the specifications and brands of goods. These systematic measurement errors should be taken into account for subsequent rounds of MM, and the methodology of data collection should be modified to avoid outliers that are due to the variation in specifications or branding (see chapter “Lessons learned and next steps”):

- Exact specifications for dairy products (curd, sour cream, milk) should be defined precisely prior to data collection as the prices may vary in some locations by a factor of 3 to 4, which in turn may contribute significantly to the average price level. - Subsequent analysis of trademarks and brands monitored shows significant price variance for some products (notably milk, meat, rice) between trademarks. For the future rounds of MM a list of trademarks recommended for monitoring will be prepared prior to data collection. At the same time, some outliers (extremely low or high prices) for single non-branded items (such as vegetables, meat) in certain locations cannot be explained by differences in branding, and should be explored in greater detail at the next stages of MM.

Quantitative data have also provided a ground for comparative analysis, which has allowed to grade the location by price level and to identify larger areas with common price trends. In order to compare pricing, initial price data were subjected to normalization by mean value, calculated for each item (with outliers removed). The normalized data were then averaged per location, and the results obtained are represented in Table 4.

Table 4 – Average price level for food items per location

Kurakhove 18% Lysychansk 7% Nyzhnia Vilkhova 6% Stanytsia Lughanska 6% Vuhledar 5% Petrivka 4% Makarove 3% Novhorodske 3% Schastia 3% Zolote 2% Hirske 1% Ocheretyne 1%

Novyi Aidar 0% -1% Avdiivka price level as perceived -1% Pokrovsk by consumers: high -2% Kostiantynivka high or affordable -4% Toretsk affordable

-6% Verkhnia Vilkhova -11% Bakhmut

-17% Popasna

As seen in Table 4, the locations can be conditionally divided by average price level into three areas with the low, medium and high price level respectively. Figure 3 demonstrates the map with the specified areas.

Figure 3 – Areas by average price level (food items)

As shown in the map (Figure 3) low price level locations concentrate around Bahmut (and Popasna), and the prices are gradually increasing as the distance from these centers grows, reaching their maximum in areas around Kurakhove and Stanytsia Lughanska. From this perspective, Popasna and Kurakhove appear to be of particular interest with the lowest and the highest price levels respectively and should merit a deeper exploration.

Comparatively low price level in Popasna can be explained by several factors. This location is the center of the biggest rayon in Ukraine with functioning railway network and relatively developed markets (compared to other locations in the area). Moreover, as REACH ABA findings indicate, Popasna, Bakhmut, Toretsk and Stanytsia Luhanska are the most popular locations in 5 km zone for selling produce, which increases 14 competition and decreases prices. Kurakhove, in turn, is less popular for selling produce, however, it is one of the closest towns to NGCA (Donetsk) with less restrictions on good traffic across the contact line, both by car and by foot. The town has become popular for “shopping trips” from NGCA side, thereby contributing to the increase in prices for basic goods. It should be noted that although Stanytsia Luhanska is both one of the centers for selling produce and very popular in terms of “shopping trips” as well (but with lower intensity goods traffic due to the only possibility to cross the border by foot), and as a result, the price levels are comparatively higher, but not as high as in Kurakhove.

Table 4 above also reflects price levels as expressed by customers. Although prices were overall reported as high some discrepancies were identified when comparing the price levels reported by consumers versus the levels calculated based on retailer price data. In particular, all the customers surveyed in Popasna noted that food prices there were high, while the quantitative analysis shows that prices are 17% lower than average. Some customers in Kurakhove and 100% in Lysychansk described prices as “affordable” while traders’ data indicated the prices were 18% and 7% higher than average level, respectively. This finding is of particular interest and should be explored deeper in the next rounds of market monitoring.

Qualitative analysis allows to make the following conclusions related to demand and availability of the basic food items:

- Retailers reported locally produced dairy products (homemade or produced at small local dairy factories) to be the most popular. - Retailers expect increase in demand and supply of potatoes in the autumn when people usually stock up on foods for the winter. - The majority of respondents indicated less expensive chicken meat (carcasses, leg quarters) as the most popular among meat products. - The demand for cereals, rice and pasta is low in locations close to the contact line as local population is provided with in-kind assistance, which usually includes these products. - The majority of traders indicated high demand for sugar and oil in summer and early autumn, i.e. during the season of food processing and conservation. - The demand is not uniform throughout the month with the peaks on the days of salaries and social payments. An interesting sideline observation is that while travelling to NGCA side for food products is almost never reported, the respondents from Stanytsia Luhanska mentioned travelling to Lugansk city (NGCA) for sweets and cookies.

The analysis of food availability per location has shown that beef is the product missing in the majority of locations (60%), which correlates with the results obtained in REACH ABA. Bread, eggs, sour cream, groceries and potatoes are available in all locations. Table 5 shows which food items are not available universally.

Table 5 - % of locations missing certain food products Milk 5% Onions 5% Poultry 5% Сabbage 10% Сurd 10% Carrots 15% Pork 30% Pork fat 50% Beef 60% Suppliers Most of the retailers are supplied with food products by local producers (up to oblast level), with some goods delivered from suppliers located in other regions (Kharkiv and Zaporizhia) (Table 6). Chain stores are supplied 15 from their distribution centers, where goods are being delivered from both local suppliers and other regions of Ukraine.

Table 6 - % of supplies by origin

Local supplies (local, rayon and oblast) 59%

Trans-oblast supplies 18%

Mixed (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast) 23%

Delivery frequencies are presented in Table 7 with large retailers considered separately. The averages are calculated based on the data for the retailers selling the corresponding commodities.

Table 7 – Delivery frequencies (in days between deliveries)

Average Commodity Average (large Minimum Maximum group (overall) retailers) 1 1 Bread 1 1 (overall) (overall) 1 8.5 Eggs 5 3 (Kurakhove) (Noviy Aidar) 1 7 Dairy 3.4 2.6 (Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove) (Petrivka, Makarove) 1 7 Vegetables 4.3 2.4 (Lysychansk, Kurakhove, Toretsk) (Schastia, Petrivka, Makarove) 1 9.3 Meat 4.8 3 (Lysychansk, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk) (Makarove) 1 16.5 Groceries 7.1 8 (Kurakhove, Pokrovsk) (Hirske)

Most of the retailer do not experience any regular obstacles to delivery of food: 75% food retailers in 90% locations reported no difficulties at all, while only 4% reported complications occurring during the escalation of the fighting. Non-food items – Hygiene Accessibility Hygiene items were reported to be fully available in 17 locations (85%) with partial availability in Schastia, Ocheretyne and Avdiivka. 69% of respondents indicated that the price had increased during the previous three months. Table 8 shows the affordability of prices in this sector.

Table 8 – Price affordability (NFIs – Hygiene)

High prices 80%

Affordable 20% Zolote, Lisichansk, Hirske, Kurakhovo prices

Increase in prices for stationery, clothes and shoes for children of school age were specifically emphasized by respondents in Avdiivka and Ocheretyne.

Prices Average price data per location for hygiene items are outlined in the charts in Annex 5. The analysis of outliers in this sector has revealed similar issues with trademarks as for food items – prices in Kurakhove, Novyi Aidar and Vuhledar were monitored for toothpastes of premium price category. The harmonization of brands should be taken into consideration in this and subsequent rounds of MM.

Quantitative data collected for hygiene items have been processed in the similar way as for food items: average price data were obtained for each location (Table 9).

The average price levels here are calculated based on 4-5 items so the results are not considered to be fully representative, but only indicative. At the same time, the patterns identified in food section for areas around Kurakhove and Popasna are also partially confirmed for non-food items.

Table 9 – Average price level for hygiene items per location

Ocheretyne 37%

Novyi Aidar 20%

Novhorodske 15%

Avdiivka 15%

Kurakhove 9%

Zolote 6%

Bakhmut 4%

Vuhledar 1%

Lysychansk 0%

Hirske 0%

-4% Popasna

-5% Pokrovsk

-7% Makarove

-8% Nyzhnia Vilkhova

-9% Toretsk price level as perceived -11% Schastia by consumers: high -11% Petrivka high or affordable -13% Stanytsia Lughanska affordable

-17% Verkhnia Vilkhova

-21% Kostiantynivka

The analysis of qualitative data on demand and availability of the basic hygiene items allows to make the following conclusions regarding findings:

- For the majority of items from the group of hygiene items, retailers (chain stores) indicated the increase in demand during the periods of special offers or sales for certain commodities. This was confirmed at the interviews with customers as well. 17

- Demand for all items in the list is either high or medium except for the adult diapers which were reported to have a low demand owing to the fact that people rather buy them in pharmacies than in stores. For this reason the item is not present in stores in 70% locations. - All the commodities monitored (besides the one mentioned above) are available in 100% locations assessed with the only exception in Ocheretyne where all the retailers interviewed reported the demand for the infant diapers as non-existent. The disaggregation by origin of supplies generally confirms the tendency identified for food - most of the retailers deliver hygiene NFIs from local suppliers (up to oblast level), and some proportion is provided by suppliers located in other regions (Lviv, Kharkiv and other regions) (Table 10).

Table 10 - % of supplies by origin

Local supplies (local, rayon and oblast) 54%

Trans-oblast supplies 21%

Mixed (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast) 6%

No data 19%

Delivery frequencies for the hygiene items vary from twice a week to once a month. The delivery schedules for retailers are presented in Table 11.

Table 11 – % retailers by delivery frequencies

twice a week 17%

once a week 37%

once in 2 weeks 19%

once a months 8%

no data 19%

94% retailers reported no difficulties in delivery of NFIs (hygiene), although one retailer from Stanytsia Lughanska mentioned inconveniences caused by the fact that deliveries happen late in the day, after 5 pm. Non-food items – Fuel (Coal and Firewood) Firewood and coal are only in demand in areas that lack centralized gas supply, therefore these goods are not available in all the markets in this study.

Coal and firewood markets represent a different market system, in contrast to all other market sectors. Solid fuel in bulk is not traded in shops, it is delivered on orders that are placed with suppliers. The analysis of the market system in solid fuel was performed in a different way than in other sectors: local suppliers were researched, identified, and interviewed over the phone. This data was combined and triangulated with the findings from the customers’ survey.

While firewood and coal are the most widely used fuel types for the heating in the rural areas that lack centralized gas supply, identification of corresponding traders proved to be a challenge for the monitors in the field. Nevertheless, 5 firewood traders were identified in 4 locations – Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Makarove, Toretsk. The prices varied from 300 to 1200 UAH/m3 (Table 12).

Table 12 – Prices for firewood

Location Price, UAH (per m3) Avdiivka 300 Kurakhove 1200 Makarove 460 Toretsk 400

All the traders represent local timber-works and reported medium to high demand for the firewood. Due to the apparent lack of traders, the perception of availability of firewood was investigated through the survey of customers. In the locations monitored, however, the majority of respondents (59%) reported no need in firewood. In locations where this type of fuel is used, customers reported that it is available: in 12 locations and provided the following price data for the pine firewood (Figure 4), which mirrors closely the data obtained from the traders (with the exception of one trader in Kurakhove).

Figure 4 – Prices for pine firewood

600 550 470 437 440 440 450 450 500 400 400 350 300 200 100 0

The majority of the respondents indicate that price for firewood increased during the previous 3 months and assess current price level as high. It was also noted by people in Hirske and Novhorodske that local population cuts trees around their settlements to make stocks of firewood.

Coal was monitored with both traders and customers as well. Traders were reached in 7 locations and provided the price data varying from 1800 UAH in Pokrovsk to 3000 UAH in Kostyantynivka and Kurakhove (see Annex 5), the demand was reported as high in 100% responses and 4 out of 7 traders also noted that the prices increased recently. No difficulties in delivery were mentioned.

The customers reported coal to be fully available in 3 locations – Toretsk, Kurakhove and Ocheretyne, while in 4 other locations – Hirske, Nyzhnia Vilkhova, Verkhnia Vilkhova, Novohrodske, the customers reported deficit of coal, and in 11 location the coal was not in demand, as the population uses other heating systems. The lowest price was recorded in Hirske and Toretsk (1500 UAH), the highest in Makarove (3500 UAH). The prices vary as the distance from mines usually contributes considerably to the coal price as well as its quality. Non-food items – Construction materials As the construction materials are not essential goods that are high in demand by the all of the population, stores selling corresponding goods do not appear in every location, and the customers surveyed are often not aware of the situation in this market sector. Thus, in the survey, most of the people interviewed in Popasna, Bakhmut, Kostyantynivka, Avdiivka and Novhorodske (32% of all the customers surveyed) indicated no need in construction materials.

Among the locations investigated the items of this market sector are fully unavailable only in Verkhnia Vilkhova, and people from this town travel for construction materials to Makarovo or Stanytsia Luganska. The rest of the respondents reported that the necessary items are available in sufficient volume. It was also pointed out that for some specific goods (e.g. windows, doors, and roofing slates) people have to travel to Stanytsia Luganska from the surrounding locations (Makarove, Nyzhnia Vilkhova). Respondents from Stanytsia Lughanska, Makarove and Schastia noted that a large proportion of people do not buy the construction materials needed, searching for the assistance from humanitarian actors (NRC, ICRC), local administrations etc.

Surveyed customers reported that prices are high and rising: 81% respondents indicated price increase in the previous three months. Table 13 shows price affordability in this sector.

Table 13 – Price affordability (NFIs – Construction materials)

High prices 82%

Affordable prices 18% Zolote, Schastia, Kurakhovo

None of construction materials was presented in 100% locations. The most popular item from the list is cement – it is available in 95% locations except for Verkhnia Vilkhova where there were no relevant functioning stores found. The locations where certain construction materials are not available are shown in Table 14.

Table 14 - % of locations missing construction materials

Roofing slate (non-asbestos) 85%

Bricks 70%

Glazing 95%

Timber 70% Non-asbestos roofing slate can be purchased only in 3 locations (Bakhmut, Pokrovsk and Vuhledar). Most of the retailers deliver roofing slates from Balakleya (78.3%), and cement is delivered from the same location (63%). Prices for bricks vary significantly (from 1 UAH to 6.25 UAH) depending on whether the customer needs delivery. Additionally, some retailers (e.g. in Toretsk) sell used bricks and the prices are for used bricks.

Regarding insulation materials, it was highlighted by retailers that not only glass wool but also polystyrene is used and is therefore in high demand. However, the entire assortment was not reported to be fully available in any of the stores assessed. The retailers nonetheless offer a wide list of construction materials to be delivered on order.

Most of the retailers are supplied with construction materials by external suppliers (trans-oblast), or both local (oblast) and trans-oblast (Table 15). The most frequently mentioned region for external supplies was Kharkiv.

Table 15 - % of supplies by origin

Local supplies (oblast) 40%

Trans-oblast supplies 36%

Mixed (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast) 24%

Most of the traders noted no difficulties with delivery. Some respondents indicated high transportation cost as an issue. Time intervals between deliveries varied significantly from 3 to 90 days with some traders reported “delivery upon request”. Medications The medications section of market monitoring similarly to other market sectors investigation includes assessment of both customers and retailers; however, different sampling was used for this market sector. MDM as the leading organization in providing health assistance in the area had included two biggest location of Lughansk 5 km zone – Popasna and Stanytsia Lughanska – to assess the availability of essential medications. The list for price monitoring included 10 medications, the quantitative data collected are diagrammatized and presented in Annex 5. The comparative analysis between two sets has shown that prices in Stanytsia Lughanska pharmacies are lower for 80% items with the price difference varying from 1% to 57%.

The assessment of customers was conducted in the same manner and for the same location sample as for other market sectors. In 19 locations (95%) the respondents reported essential medicines to be available, except for Ocheretyne, where the majority of respondents indicated problems with the availability of medicines. Table 16 shows the affordability of prices reported for medications.

Table 16 – Price affordability (Medications)

High prices 85%

Affordable 15% Zolote, Hirske, Bakhmut prices

In many communities, it was noted that all the necessary medications could be purchased on demand in local pharmacies or via Internet. The respondents from Nyzhnia Vilkhova and Zolote pointed out that some medicines could be provided by Red Cross.

Agricultural inputs Similar to the situation with construction materials, agricultural inputs are not essential basic goods, so the method of convenience sampling in several locations often failed to identify customers that had any demand for this type of goods. Consequently, the information on customers’ demand is available for only a portion of MM locations.

Of those customers who are aware of the situation at agricultural sector of the market, most people indicated that necessary products are available. Nyzhnia Vilkhova was recorded as the only one location where most of the items listed are not available so people travel to Bilovodsk for agricultural inputs. It was also reported that local farmers use grain as means of payment to people for land lease, who in turn usually sell this grain as stock fodder. The respondents in the majority of locations (67%) stated that the prices for agricultural products are high and had been on the rise during the previous 3 months.

It was discovered that specialized fodder is not very commonly used by the people in their household subsistence agriculture. Consequently, the survey had to be modified at early stages based on the consultations with retailers while piloting the monitoring in Luhansk oblast, to include fodder that is actually used by the consumers. It was revealed that people most often buy different grains for feeding livestock, as well as food production waste (bran, oil cake), using more expensive universal fodder as a complementary food, rather than as the main part of the diet.

The analysis of supplies has shown that 73% of traders deliver goods from within the region (Table 17). It should be specifically mentioned that 27% of retailers purchase the products (mixed feed) from a local manufacturer located in Baranivka village, Luhansk region.

Table 17 - % of supplies by origin

Local supplies (local, rayon and oblast) 46% Trans-oblast supplies 27%

Local manufacturer (v. Baranivka) 27%

Delivery frequencies for the agricultural items varied from once a week to once a year (Table 18). Most of the retailers (58%) deliver products once a week and more often. 8% of the traders make their purchases once a year during the agricultural season.

Table 18 – % retailers by delivery frequencies (agricultural inputs)

Three times a week (every 2 days) 8% Twice a week 17% Once a week 33% Three times a month (every 10 days) 8% Once a month 17% Twice a year 8%

Once a year 8%

Financial Institutions MM survey assessed the operational availability of financial institutions. In general, the providers of financial services are available for the population in all the locations assessed – in 85% of them the banks were reported to operate (Table 19), the exceptions were 3 locations around Stanytsia Luhanska, with the nearest operational bank located in Stanytsia Luhanska proper.

Table 19 - % of locations with operational banks

Banks 85% operational

Banks not 15% Nyzhnia Vilkhova, Verkhnia Vilkhova, Makarove operational In 4 settlements no ATMs available were reported (Table 18). The respondents indicated deficit of available cash in the ATMs as a frequent problem in Stanytsia Lughanska, Noviy Aidar, Petrivka, Schastia and Avdiivka. Of all the locations only in Lisichansk, Bakhmut, Konstantinovka and Toretsk, the respondents said there are no queues in banks and ATMs, as many ATMs and branches of banks are represented there.

Table 20 - % of locations with operational ATMs

ATMs 80% operational Nyzhnia Vilkhova, Verkhnia Vilkhova, Makarove, ATMs not 20% Ocheretyne operational

The queues usually occur on the days of salary, pensions and social payments. The longest queues (up to 100 people) are reported in Kurakhove. Conclusions The present market monitoring study provides a snapshot of the situation on the markets in the summer season 2017. Since it only covers the centers of the respective markets, the conclusions are applicable to market areas where access to market centers is not problematic. The survey did not cover remote and peripheral settlements which may have difficulties accessing the market.

The survey of 20 market centers in 6 market sectors (Food, NFI-hygiene, Fuel, Construction materials, Agricultural inputs, Medicines) along the contact line offers a comprehensive picture of the markets in the area. In general, with small exceptions, the markets for basic items are functional, which would allow CBI to cover basic needs along the line of contact. For non-basic needs, the markets are mostly functional, but not in all locations, so targeted CBI should take into consideration the findings of the MM study for their respective market sectors.

MM did not identify any significant issues with supply of goods and the ability to satisfy demand in goods that are essential for survival. Market systems in the region have the capacity to supply resident population and shoppers from NGCA with basic goods (food, non-food items, medicines). These goods are available in all the locations assessed, which supports the assumption that cash-based interventions are an appropriate modality of food security/NFI assistance, provided that the beneficiaries have access to the marketplace12. No particular difficulties or bottlenecks regarding supply chains were detected: most retailers reported no difficulties with supply in all market sectors

At the same time, high price remains the main barrier in accessing goods on the market for the majority of consumers. This conclusion applies to all commodity groups across most of the locations. In all markets sectors the prices have reportedly increased in the last 3 months prior to the survey (July-August 2017).

MM study demonstrates that there is indeed significant price variation between locations in all sectors, which can be explained by logistical reasons and differences in demand patterns. This variation should be taken into account in programming. Areas with lower than average price level for basic goods are Bakhmut and Popasna. The prices are gradually increasing with the distance from these two centers, and reach highest levels in Kurakhove and Stanytsia Luhanska market centers.

While financial services are available in almost all locations, queues were reported in all but three locations. The payments of salaries, pensions and other social benefits usually coincide in time, causing queues to FSP and ATMs as well as rapid increase in trade and purchasing power. This could, potentially, cause congestions of the market system, deficits and price increases. To avoid this effect, schedules of social and salary payments should be taken into consideration while planning the distribution for cash-based intervention.

Solid fuel is mostly available in locations where people use it for heating: wood is available universally, while coal is unavailable in some of the locations. The prices for both wares have increased in the three months prior to the survey.

Construction materials are available in practically all locations, either at all times or on demand. One important discovery of the MM survey is that asbestos-free roofing slates are not commonly available and are driven out of the market by roofing slates containing asbestos, which can be found in most locations.

Fodder for livestock is usually available and sourced locally, however, rather than using specialized feed people purchase different grains and agricultural waste materials, such as bran or oil cake. These are widely available. Fertilizers are not available in many of the surveyed locations.

12 At the same time, the market monitoring survey did not cover isolated communities that might have difficulties accessing the market regarding transportation. These communities should be covered in the next round of market monitoring survey. 23

Lessons learned and next steps While the present study provides a snapshot of the markets in the summer season, in order to get the comprehensive picture of the trends in the markets, current MM methodology and scope will have to be extended for next seasons: autumn and winter.

In order to facilitate and simplify the collection of information for next rounds of MM, the survey teams should to identify KI among the representative of local communities, who would be able to provide insights on the situation in every local market sector.

To provide a more comprehensive picture of market access in the communities along the line of contact, MM will have to be expanded to cover isolated localities, where difficulties with market access were reported in earlier assessments, or where new information about difficulties of market access has since emerge.

For certain market sectors, such as food, some of the products surveyed were price outliers – and it appeared that a part of the difference in prices is an artefact of data collection, rather a reflection of a real price difference: it is due to the differences in the specifications and trademarks of the goods. The patterns revealed in the analysis should be taken into account for subsequent rounds of MM, and the methodology of data collection should be modified:

- Exact specifications for dairy products (curd, sour cream, milk) should be unambiguously defined prior to data collection as the prices may vary in some locations by a factor of 3 to 4, which in turn may contribute significantly to the average price level. - The analysis of trademarks monitored has shown the significant price variance for some products (notably milk, meat, rice) between trademarks. For the future rounds of MM a list of trademarks recommended for monitoring will be drawn.

The markets with goods that appeared as price outliers (for reasons other than specifications/branding) in the current survey should receive particular attention in the subsequent rounds of market monitoring: the reasons for price outlying need to be further investigated.

The survey identified geographically determined areas with lower than average, average, and higher than average market prices. The reasons for this market imbalance should be investigated in greater detail, in order to identify the mechanisms that cause regional price disparity in the next rounds of MM.

Annexes Annex 1 - Terms of Reference for Joint Market Monitoring Context The armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, caused disruption of livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people. Despite the efforts of the government of Ukraine, and of national and international humanitarian agencies, that have been providing emergency and recovery assistance to conflict-affected population, the needs remain acute: currently, according to the 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan, 0,8 mln people in government controlled area require humanitarian assistance13, and of them about 0,2 mln concentrated along the contact line14.

At the current stage of the conflict, where the line of contact has mostly stabilized, the market systems of the conflict affected regions have somewhat restored their capacity to provide the population with most of the necessary food and non-food items15, and most areas even in the proximity to the line of contact, have become accessible to markets of critical products.

The recovery of the market systems has conditioned the change of modalities of operation of humanitarian agencies, which now increasingly switch to cash-based assistance (both multipurpose and targeted/conditional cash and vouchers16). At the same time, cash-based assistance, requires that agencies very closely monitor the capacities of the markets to supply key products to the population, in order to ensure that, on the one hand, cash-based assistance allows people to cover their essential survival and livelihood needs (or specific goods for targeted assistance), and, on the other hand, that the infusion of cash does not disrupt the markets, depletes the stocks, causing deficits and price hikes.

Considering this, it appears imperative that agencies conduct systematic monitoring of critical market systems, in order to obtain a dynamic picture of prices, supply stocks, potential difficulties in supply for essential goods, and level of access to the markets in every separate market catchment area. The initiative for conducting joint market monitoring intends to provide interested agencies with a common tool for monitoring the markets for key goods. This tool will allow agencies to collect comparable data, and to pool the resources for data collection and analysis in conflict affected communities.

Purpose of the study The purpose of joint market monitoring initiative is to provide interested agencies with a common tool, validated by respective humanitarian coordination bodies, that would allow agencies to pool resource for the collection of primary data, and in exchange provide all the interested parties with up-to-date data on the conditions of the markets. Joint market monitoring would allow to:

 Provide market monitoring information to inform programme decisions, allowing to choose the best assistance modalities: cash/vouchers/in-kind, depending on the conditions of the particular local markets.  Identify in advance market shortages, bottlenecks, deficits and price changes, allowing agencies to prepare for potential market disruptions.  Assess the difference in prices and market accessibility between locations, allowing to fine tune programme decisions taking into account difference in transportation costs or other price premiums or discounts.  Identify local deficits and market inefficiencies and support local solutions through early recovery/livelihood programming.

Objective The objective of market monitoring is to collect information regarding the functioning of critical market systems, necessary to inform programme decisions aimed at ensuring the livelihoods of the beneficiaries and conflict-affected population. Market monitoring is necessary to support cash-based programmes: multipurpose cash assistance, targeted/conditional cash assistance, and assistance through vouchers.

The study will be conducted seasonally, providing snapshots of seasonal market information, and at the same time allowing to observe the dynamics of markets situation.

Research questions The main questions that the market monitoring will answer are:

 What are the capacities of the key market systems to supply conflict affected population?  What are the conditions of access of conflict affected population to critical markets?

More specifically, the research will answer the following analytical questions:

13 Ukraine 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan 14 REACH Area based assessment 2017, forthcoming 15 Ibid. 16 Ukraine 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan 25

 What capacity do the markets have in supplying the population with critical materials and articles?  What are the current or potential obstacles, bottlenecks and shortages that affect or may affect the capacity of the markets to supply the population with critical goods?  What obstacles do the members of the target population have in accessing the markets? What are the differences in access to markets between locations, and between socio-economic groups of population (gender, age, status)?

Critical market systems to me monitored Joint market monitoring will focus on monitoring the market systems that are critical for the livelihood of the conflict affected population. The analysis of available secondary data, and consultation with participating agencies within the framework of humanitarian coordinating mechanisms has allowed to determine the critical market systems that need to be analyzed in the assessment. The market sectors that will be analyzed are:

 Key food items – in consultations with the Food Security cluster  Select non-food items (hygiene and winterization materials) – in consultations with Shelter/NFI cluster  Key construction materials – in consultations with Shelter/NFI cluster  Key agricultural inputs – in consultations with Food Security cluster

Timeframe Market monitoring will be conducted on a seasonal basis. In 2017, three rounds of data collection should be organized, covering summer 2017, autumn 2017 and winter 2017-2018. A report will be made public following each round of data collection, at the same time all participating agencies will have access to the raw data collected during each round of data collection.

Methodology The monitoring will be conducted through in-person and over-the-phone survey of traders and general target population, using single survey instrument and interview methodology.

 Survey of traders: to collect data on prices, demand, stocks, supply sources.  Survey of target population: to collect data on market access  Additional survey of key informants may be used to supplement the study with data on market access and shortages

The research will cover the areas in Donetsk and Luhansk GCA where conflict affected population is concentrated: the priority will be given to the markets along the line of contact.

Indicators Market monitoring will study the following indicators, agreed upon with respective clusters. The exact specifications of each article will be defined in consultation with the clusters and through the survey of traders (the most popular/in-demand items).

1. Food items: 1.1. Bread (loaf of white bread, piece) 1.2. Eggs (10 eggs) 1.3. Cheese (curd cheese, kg) 1.4. Oil (synflower seed oil, liter) 1.5. Milk (whole milk, liter) 1.6. Potatos (kg) 1.7. Chicken meat (filet, kg) 1.8. Beef (kg) 1.9. Pork (kg) 1.10. Freshwater fish carp (whole fish, kg) 1.11. Pasta (high quality) 1.12. Flour (wheat, kg) 1.13. Rice (kg) 1.14. Buckwheat (kg) 1.15. Sugar (kg) 1.16. Infant formula 2. Non-food items - WASH 2.1. Adult diapers 2.2. Infant diapers 2.3. Soap 2.4. Washing powder 2.5. Toothpaste 2.6. Hygiene pads 26

3. Nonfood items – Shelter 3.1. Wood (m3) 3.2. Coal (ton) 4. Construction materials 4.1. Roofing slates, non-asbestos 4.2. Bricks 4.3. Cement 4.4. Glass 4.5. Mineral wool 4.6. Timber (for high beams) 4.7. Plumbing pipe (pvc) 5. Agricultural inputs 5.1. Fertilizer 5.2. Chicken feed 5.3. Pork feed 5.4. Cow feed

For each market commodity the analysis will collect the following data:

 Current retail price  Availability on the market  Demand  Stock (in days of demand)  Origin of supply (local, raion, oblast, transoblast, imported)

Annex 2 – Trader’s Survey

Market Monitoring - Retailers Date of interview

Interview type by phone in person

Location

Name of retailer

Size (S, M, L)

Address

Phone

COMMENTS I FOOD Demand (high, # Name Specification Unit Availability Price Manufacturer Comments medium, low, none) 1 Wheat bread loaf 1

2 Eggs pcs 10 Cheese (curd cheese, 9- 3 kg 1 10%)

4 Sour cream (15%) kg

5 Milk (2,5%) litre

6 Potatoes kg 1

7 Carrot kg 1

8 Onions kg 1

9 Cabbage kg 1

10 Poultry (chicken meat) kg 1

11 Beef kg 1

12 Pork kg 1

13 Pork fat kg 1

14 Oil (sunflower, refined) litre

15 Pasta (spagetti) kg

16 Flour kg

17 Rice kg

18 Buckwheat kg

19 Sugar kg

20 Salt (non-iodised) kg

What is the origin of supplies (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast, trans- Ukraine)?

What are the difficulties in delivery?

Bread Eggs Dairy Vegetables Meat Groceries What is the frequency (in days) of delivery of the following commodity groups?

COMMENTS II NFIs - Hygiene Demand (high, # Name Specification Unit Availability Price Manufacturer Comments medium, low, none) 1 Diapers (adult) pc

2 Diapers (infant) pc

3 Soap bar (unperfumed) pc

4 Washing powder kg

5 Toothpaste

6 Hygiene pads pc

What is the origin of supplies (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast, trans- Ukraine)?

What are the difficulties in delivery?

What is the frequency (in days) of delivery?

III NFIs - Shelter Demand (high, # Name Specification Unit Availability Price Manufacturer Comments medium, low, none) 1 Firewood (pine) m3

2 Coal tn

What is the origin of supplies (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast, trans- Ukraine)?

What is the frequency (in days) of delivery?

Have there been any changes in demand for the previous 3 months? If yes, please, specify. Have there been any changes in prices or availability of commodities for the previous 3 months? If yes, please, specify. COMMENTS IV NFIs - Construction materials Demand (high, # Name Specification Unit Availability Price Manufacturer Comments medium, low, none) Non-asbestos roofing slate 1 pc (175x113) Asbestos roofing slate 2 pc (175x113) 3 Brick pc

4 Cement m400 kg

5 Glazing (4mm) m2

6 Glass wool roll (50mm) m2

7 Insulation foam pc

8 Primer Ceresit CT-17 kg

9 Timber 5х15х450 cm pc

What is the origin of supplies (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast, trans- Ukraine)?

What are the difficulties in delivery?

What is the frequency (in days) of delivery?

COMMENTS V Agricultural inputs Demand (high, # Name Specification Unit Availability Price Manufacturer Comments medium, low, none) 1 Wheat kg

2 Barley kg

3 Oat kg Feed for 4 Corn kg livestock 5 Bran kg

6 Crushed grain kg

7 Oilcake kg What is the origin of supplies (local, rayon, oblast, trans-oblast, trans- Ukraine)?

What are the difficulties in delivery?

What is the frequency (in days) of delivery?

Annex 3 – Customer’s survey

Market Monitoring - Customers

Date of interview

Location

Interview type by phone in person

COMMENTS I MARKET ACCESSABILITY Availability Price level Has there been any I don't know. No changes in prices If not available, where Affordable Comments Fully available Partially available Not available need in these High price during previous 3 do people usually go? price products months?

Food

NFIs - Hygiene

Construction materials

Medications Please, describe the possibility to fully meet your basic needs with the markets in your Agricultural location inputs

Coal Please, specify the Please, specify the price of the coal (for 1 tn) retailers of the coal

Firewood (pine) Please, specify the Please, specify the price of the firewood (for 1 m3) retailers of the firewood High price Assortment problems Poor quality What difficulties with accessing markets do people have in Transport problems Safety Other difficulties your location?

COMMENTS II CASH Are ATMs available and functioning? Which ones? Do ATMs have enough cash?

Are bank branches available and functioning? Which ones? Are there queues?

At what time of the day they appear and how long they are? What other difficulties with getting the cash do you have? COMMENTS

Annex 4 – Availability and Price Matrixes Availability matrix, per location

Construction Agricultural Food NFIs Medications Coal Firewood materials inputs Popasna No data No data

Zolote No data No data No data

Hirske Stanytsia

Luganska Makarove

Nizhnia Vilkhova

Verkhnia Vilkhova

Novyi Aidar

Petrivka No data No data

Schastia

Lisichansk No data No data No data

Bakhmut No data No data

Kostiantynivka No data No data No data

Toretsk

Avdiivka No data No data No data

Kurakhove

Novhorodske No data No data

Ocheretyne

Pokrovsk No data No data

Vuhledar No data No data

Full availability

Full or partial availability

Partial availability

Low availability or unavailability

No need reported No data

Price level matrix, per location

Construction Agricultural Food NFIs Medications Coal Firewood materials inputs Popasna No data No data

Zolote No data No data No data

Hirske

Stanytsia No data Luganska Makarove No data

Nizhnia Vilkhova No data

Verkhnia Vilkhova No data No data No data

Novyi Aidar

Petrivka No data No data

Schastia No data

Lisichansk No data No data No data

Bakhmut No data No data

Kostiantynivka No data No data No data

Toretsk

Avdiivka No data No data No data

Kurakhove

Novhorodske No data No data

Ocheretyne

Pokrovsk No data No data

Vuhledar No data No data

High prices

High or affordable prices

Affordable prices No need reported or products No data are not available

Annex 5 – Price Diagrams

Vegetables Potatoes Onions Сabbage Carrot

14.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00

Salt 6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0.00

bread

12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00

Groceries Oil Pasta Rice Buckwheat Sugar Flour 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00

Dairy products Sour cream Milk Curd cheese

120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00

Meat

160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00

Poultry Сheese Pork Pork_fat

Infant diapers/Higiene pads/Soap

9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

Diapers_infant Higiene_pads Soap

Washing powder_toothpaste

60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00

Washing_powder Toothpaste

Medications

77.4576.6 80 64.2 70 66.55 61.45 57.15 60

50 45 35.95 40 36.5 36.15

30 25.95 24.4

20 13.7511.5 10.459.45 8.65 10.15 8.18.85 10

Coal 3000 3000

3000 2500 2300 2200 2500 2000 1800 2000

1500

1000

500

Agricultural inputs Wheat Barley Oat Corn

9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

Agricultural inputs Bran Crushed_grain Oilcake

8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00