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Integrative Modelling and Managing New Landscapes and Environments in De-Glaciating Mountain Ranges: an Emerging Trans-Disciplinary Research Field Zurich Open Repository and Archive University of Zurich Main Library Strickhofstrasse 39 CH-8057 Zurich www.zora.uzh.ch Year: 2017 Integrative modelling and managing new landscapes and environments in de-glaciating mountain ranges: an emerging trans-disciplinary research field Haeberli, Wilfried DOI: https://doi.org/10.15406/freij.2017.01.00005 Posted at the Zurich Open Repository and Archive, University of Zurich ZORA URL: https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-143930 Journal Article Published Version The following work is licensed under a Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) License. Originally published at: Haeberli, Wilfried (2017). Integrative modelling and managing new landscapes and environments in de-glaciating mountain ranges: an emerging trans-disciplinary research field. Forestry Research and Engineering: International Journal, 1(1):00005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15406/freij.2017.01.00005 Forestry Research and Engineering: International Journal Integrative Modelling and Managing New Landscapes and Environments in De-Glaciating Mountain Ranges: An Emerging Trans-Disciplinary Research Field Keywords: Short Communication Landscape transformation;Climate change; geomorphic Glacier vanishing; surface Permafrostprocesses; degradation; Forest expansion; New lakes, Slope stability; Volume 1 Issue 1 - 2017 IntroductionAdaptation strategies; Risk reduction Geography Department, University of Zurich, Switzerland Emerging landscapes – emerging research fields *Corresponding author: Changes in the global climate system may lead to corresponding 202-33-83; Email: Wilfried Haeberli, Geography Department, University of Zurich, Switzerland Tel: +41-79- Received: | Published: changes in natural landscapes. Examples are large-scale shifts August 24, 2017 September 18, 2017 forof boreal adaptation forests to climateinto tundra change zones, impacts desertification in such cases in have semi-arid to deal withregions, future and landscapesde-glaciations and in environments, cold mountainous which areas. will Strategiesdiffer not only from the past but also from present situations. Corresponding that many mountain ranges will essentially lose their glaciers planning of management options must be scenario-based. This within decades even under moderate scenarios of global warming involves modelling of new landscapes and environments – an [5,6]. Glacial landscapes are thereby transforming for centuries if not millennia to come into periglacial landscapes composed importantThe most emerging dramatic research landscape field. changes are currently occurring in high-latitude and high-altitude cold regions in which glaciers underof rocks different and debris, time numerous scales. Glaciers new lakes, disappear expanding within forests decades, and are rapidly disappearing. In densely populated mountainous strongly intensified geomorphic surface processes, each evolving areas, increases in natural hazards and changes in water resources, energy supply, and tourism may result [1]. The following permafrost in cold mountain peaks degrades over decades to centuries, vegetation and especially forests take decades to centuries as well to cover freshly exposed terrain, and formation illustrates first experiences and perspectives concerning icy high- of mature soils can last centuries to millennia [7-10]. Adjustment mountains. The example of the Aletsch glacier, the largest glacier [11,12].of surface This processes results insuch growing as erosion/sedimentation and long lasting disequilibria, or rock in the European Alps as the focus of the corresponding UNESCO especiallydeformation/stabilization concerning the stability also take of centuries over-steepened to (many) and millennia now de- Natural World Heritage Centre Jungfrau-Aletsch, is used as an example. slope stability) of de-glaciating landscapes have been modelled with degrading permafrost [10]. So far, primarily physical aspects (topography, ice, lakes and buttressed lateral valley slopes and slowly destabilizing icy peaks Three-dimensional model approaches combined with high- resolution digital terrain information can be used to calculate becomingand considered ice-free in awill future-oriented play an increasingly way. Over important time, however, role. Correspondingbiological aspects needs and willespecially therefore forest grow expansion for contributions into areas from forestry research and engineering to this emerging trans- surfacerealistic glacier-bedtopographies topographies of periglacial for stilllandscapes existing butemerging unmeasured from continuedglaciers [13]. glacier Such retreat glacier-bed and vanishing. topographies From representthis information, future disciplinaryDeglaciating field mountains of climate change – options adaptation. and risks potential sites of future lake formation in overdeepend parts of original glacier beds can be determined [14,15]. Such new With few exceptions (Karakoram, Pamir), glaciers are forlakes the can down-valley be interesting population for hydropower and infrastructure, production, freshwaterespecially retreating worldwide at rates that exceed those of historical de- supply or tourism. However, they also increase hazards and risks lateglaciations 20th [2,3]. Due to the delayed dynamic response, the extent wouldof most have glaciers to lose still about reflects an additional climatic 50%conditions of their of surface about area the formedin connection in their with immediate the increasing neighbourhood probability [10,16]. of large Careful rock/ century. The glaciers of the European Alps, for instance, ice avalanches from destabilizing icy peaks into lakes newly Both simple and sophisticated models have provided evidence therefore needed and must be based on model calculations with alone to adjust to present-day (2017) climatic conditions [4]. and integrative consideration of changing options and risks is Submit Manuscript | http://medcraveonline.com Forest Res Eng Int J 2017, 1(1): 00005 Integrative Modelling and Managing New Landscapes and Environments in De- Copyright: 2/4 Glaciating Mountain Ranges: An Emerging Trans-Disciplinary Research Field ©2017 Haeberli respect to the evolution of future landscapes/environments and trans-disciplinary evaluation of the technical and societal aspects involved [1]. slope movements into lakes cannot be quantitatively assessed but is certainly increasing with every new lake forming at the The example of the UNESCO Natural World Heritage downfoot of to over the steepenedmain valley slopes is also and increasing. icy peaks. The With correspondingly this increase, Centre Jungfrau-Aletsch the probability of large impact waves causing devastating floods inenhanced the main hazard valley withzone itstogether important with infrastructure the exposure therefore and Aletsch glacier (Figure 1) is a valley glacier stretching vulnerability of the town of Brig/Naters (> 20,000 inhabitants) from spectacular icy and perennially frozen peaks such as the Aletschhorn (4193 m a.s.l.) and the Jungfrau (4158 m a.s.l.) to markedly raises the regional risk level. the protected forested areas of the Aletschwald. With a length of still over 20 km, it is the largest glacier in the European Alps and the focus of the UNESCO Natural World Heritage Centre disappearJungfrau-Aletsch. within Eventhe 21 thisst large ice body with thicknesses up isto severaltransforming hundred into meters a new is likelylandscape to disintegrate in long-term and evolution,to largely century [17]. This glacier landscape developmentrequiring a new of soils interpretation and vegetation and – especiallyidentity for forest the re-growth UNESCO Natural World Heritage Centre. Modelling and visualizing the supportingand expansion such – efforts. as interconnected with geomorphic processes and lake environments [18-23] has an important potential of Figure 2 : Dam with largely empty reservoir Gibidum (April 2017; Foto W. Haeberli) and Aletsch region without the glaciers but with modelled bed overdeepenings (blue) where future lakes could possiblyLong-term form (modelplanning calculation and search and graph: for A. integrativeLinsabauer) solutions with interests concerning landscape protection, hydropower productionare needed. andConcepts fresh forwater combining supply couldrisk reduction develop alongstrategies the 3 following lines. An artificial lake reservoir with a volume of about 9 million m exists in the narrow gorge between the lower ice margin and the town of Brig (Figure 2). Enlargement of the reservoir volume could help making optimal use for hydropower duringproduction these of coming the excess few decades,water supplied reduction by inthe size melting of the glacier wouldduring thenthe coming cause additionaldecades. After runoff a “peakto decrease flow” toin bethe expected second Figure 1: could start forming within the area of destabilizing icy mountains Aletsch glacier region, Swiss Alps, with modelled permafrost Google Earth. part of the century. This is also the time when dangerous lakes occurrence indicated in colour. Source: [29], map implementation in in the upper catchment. The enhanced reservoir volume could The bed of the glacier contains a number of pronounced disaster prevention. Corresponding model calculations of then be used as a retention capacity for flood protection and secondoverdeepenings, half of the which 21st century may turn would into lakes be quite once large, the ice surrounded sets them hazardous process chains [26,27] and careful engineering design byfree over (Figure steepened,
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