North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment Phase One ‐ #CN160044
Final Report
prepared for the
Lee County Board of County Commissioners – Division of Procurement Management 1825 Hendry Street, 3rd Fl. Fort Myers, FL 33901
prepared by
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC 623 Eagle Rock Ave., Ste. 102 West Orange, NJ 07052
January 31, 2017
North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT
Table of Contents Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 1 OVERVIEW ...... 9 Introduction and Study Methodology ...... 9 Key Findings ...... 11 Recommendations for the Study Area Revitalization ...... 24 TASK ONE – PROJECT KICK‐OFF ...... 33 Key Findings ...... 33 Task 1.1 – Site Tour ...... 34 Task 1.2 – Kick‐Off Meeting ...... 34 Task 1.3 – Public Presentation ...... 36 TASK TWO – CONDUCT BUSINESS & STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS ...... 37 Key Findings ...... 37 Task 2.1 – Business Interviews ...... 41 Real Estate Developers ...... 41 Land Use Attorneys ...... 44 Brokers, Business Owners, and Stakeholders ...... 46 Summary ‐ Business Interviews ...... 47 Task 2.2 – Public Survey ...... 48 Survey Questions and Responses ...... 50 Summary – Public Survey ...... 58 TASK THREE – ASSESS MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PATTERNS OF CHANGE ...... 60 Approach to the Methodology ...... 60 Key Findings ...... 61 Task 3.1 – Defining the Market Area ...... 65 Task 3.2 – NFM Market Area Demography ...... 71 Population Characteristics ...... 71 Income, Wealth & Education ...... 86 Housing ...... 91 Labor Force & Earnings ...... 102 Consumer Spending ...... 113 Summary – Market Demography ...... 119 Task 3.3 – Target Industries/Location Quotients Analysis ...... 122 Location Quotients Methodology ...... 122 Review of Industry Performance ...... 128 Screening & Ranking of Targeted Industries ...... 136 Summary: Target Industries ...... 137
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TASK FOUR – REVIEW REAL ESTATE MARKET SUPPLY AND PATTERNS OF PERFORMANCE ...... 143 Approach to the Methodology ...... 143 Key Findings ...... 143 Task 4.1 – Zoning and Land Use ...... 145 Task 4.2 – Total Property Inventory ...... 146 Occupied Property Inventory ...... 148 Vacant Property Inventory ...... 157 Task 4.3 – Growth in Market Value ...... 159 Task 4 Summary ...... 161 TASK FIVE – SWOT(T) ANALYSIS ...... 178 Approach to Methodology ...... 178 Key Findings ...... 178 Task 5.1 – SWOT(T) Analysis ...... 181 Task 5.2 – SWOT(T) Strategies ...... 191 Task 5.3 – SWOT(T) Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 194 TASK SIX – ESTIMATE EXISTING AND POTENTIAL FUTURE UNMET DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL SPACE IN THE MARKET AREA AND OBTAINABLE CAPTURE OR PENETRATION RATES ...... 196 Approach to Methodology ...... 196 Key Findings ...... 196 Task 6.1 – Residential ...... 199 Task 6.2 – Commercial/Retail Uses ...... 206 Task 6.3 – Office/Workplace Uses ...... 214 Task 6.4 – Sports/Recreational/Cultural Uses ...... 217 Task 6.5 ‐‐ Mixed Use ...... 231 TASK 7 – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STUDY AREA REVITALIZATION ...... 235 Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 235 Recommendations Overview ...... 235 7.1 – Strategic Recommendations – How do we get there? ...... 237 7.2 ‐‐ Strategic Site Assemblage Scenarios ...... 254 Summary ...... 280
List of Tables Page TABLE 3.2.6(1) – LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME BY ANNUAL CHANGE IN PERCENT 2014 ...... 84 TABLE 3.2.9(1) – INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 88 TABLE 3.2.10(1) – CHANGES IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 90 TABLE 3.2.11(1) – CHANGE IN TOTAL, OCCUPIED AND VACANT HOUSING UNITS 2010‐2014 ...... 91 TABLE 3.2.13(1) – CHANGE IN DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING VALUES BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 96 TABLE 3.2.13(2) – WEIGHTED AVERAGE HOME VALUE 2014...... 97 TABLE 3.2.14(1) – HOUSING TYPES IN LEE COUNTY BY SALES VOLUME & PRICE ...... 100
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TABLE 3.2.15(1) – AVERAGE RENTAL PRICE POINTS BY RENTAL TYPE 2014 ...... 102 TABLE 3.2.16(1) – NFM‐MA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY ...... 103 TABLE 3.2.16(2) – NFM‐MA LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE SHARE OF LEE COUNTY’S LABOR FORCE 2010‐2014 ...... 104 TABLE 3.2.16(3) – 10 MOST COMMON OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES FOR NFM‐MA 2014 ...... 105 TABLE 3.2.16(4) – JOB GROWTH OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES FOR NFM‐MA 2014 ...... 106 TABLE 3.2.16(5) – JOB GROWTH OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES FOR NFM‐MA 2014 WITH LEE COUNTY 2023 PROJECTIONS ...... 106 TABLE 3.2.17(1) – MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP HRLY. WAGE FLUCTUATION 2010‐2014 ...... 110 TABLE 3.2.17(2) – MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL HRLY. WAGE DIFFERENTIAL 2014...... 110 TABLE 3.2.17(3) – MINOR OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY COMPARISONS OF WAGE SAVINGS 2014 ...... 111 TABLE 3.2.18(1) – NFM‐MA RANKED RETAIL & FOOD SERVICE EXPENDITURES 2015 ...... 114 TABLE 3.2.18(2) – NFM‐MA SPORTS & LEISURE ACTIVITIES BEHAVIOR 2015 BY PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS ...... 116 TABLE 3.3(1) – ALL INDUSTRIES LOCATION QUOTIENTS CHART SUMMARY – NFM‐MA 2014‐2020 ...... 127 TABLE 3.3(2) – FINAL RANKING OF NFM‐MA TARGETED INDUSTRIES ...... 137 TABLE 3.3(3) – CORRELATION OF NFM‐MA INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES ...... 138 TABLE 4.2(1) – STUDY AREA – ALL PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 146 TABLE 4.2(2) – COMPARISON OF HOTEL PROPERTIES IN THE CITY OF FORT MYERS ...... 156 TABLE 4.3(1) – COMPARISON OF TOTAL MARKET VALUES ...... 159 TABLE 5.1 – SWOT(T) ANALYSIS SUMMARY ...... 182 TABLE 5.2 – TOWS STRATEGIES MATRIX ...... 191 TABLE 6.1(1) – LEE COUNTY BUILDING PERMITS BY TYPE 2010‐2016 ...... 200 TABLE 6.1(2) – HOUSING TYPES IN THE NORTH FORT MYERS MARKET AREA ...... 202 TABLE 6.1(3) – CALCULATED AND PROJECTED NORTH FORT MYER HOUSING PRICE POINTS BY HOUSING TYPE ...... 203 TABLE 6.1(4) – HOMEOWNER UNITS OF DEMAND ...... 203 TABLE 6.1(5) – NFM‐MA RENTERS UNIT OF DEMAND BY # OF BEDROOMS & MONTHLY GROSS RENT 2016 ...... 204 TABLE 6.2.1(1) – RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES CATEGORIES ...... 206 TABLE 6.2.1(1) – SUMMARY OF 5‐MIN, 10‐MIN. AND 15‐MIN. DRIVE TIME RETAIL LEAKAGE/GAP ANALYSIS ...... 209 TABLE 6.2.1(2) – SUMMARY OF 5‐MIN, 10‐MIN. AND 15‐MIN. DRIVE TIME RETAIL RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 209 TABLE 6.4.1(1) NFM‐MA HOUSEHOLDS RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY BY PERCENT ...... 218 TABLE 6.4.1(2) COMPARISON OF AVERAGE LEISURE EXPENDITURES IN LAST 12 MONTHS...... 224 TABLE 7.2(1) – RANKING OF RATIOS OF ECONOMIC IMPACT TO INCENTIVE COST ...... 280 TABLE 7.2(2) – RANKING OF INCENTIVES COST BY NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV) ...... 281
List of Charts Page CHART A.1 ‐‐ NFM STUDY AREA – INVESTMENT MATRIX ...... 5 CHART 3.2.2(A) – MEDIAN AGE 2010‐2014 ...... 73 CHART 3.2.2(B) – MEDIAN AGES FOR MALES & FEMALES 2010‐2014 ...... 76 CHART 3.2.3 (A) – WORKING AGES 16‐64 YRS. BY PERCENT OF 2010‐2014 ...... 77 CHART 3.2.3 (B) – AGE BY COHORTS 2010‐2014 BY PERCENT ...... 78 CHART 3.2.4 – MALE/FEMALE RATIO BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 79 CHART 3.2.5(A) – WHITE /TOTAL RATIO BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 81 CHART 3.2.5(B) – RACIAL COMPOSITION BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 81
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CHART 3.2.6(A) – ENGLISH LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME BY PERCENT 2014 ...... 83 CHART 3.2.6(B) – LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME BY PERCENT 2014 ...... 84 CHART 3.2.7 – HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY PERCENT 2014 ...... 86 CHART 3.2.8 – MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN 2014 DOLLARS ...... 87 CHART 3.2.9 – INCOME DISTRIBUTION BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 88 CHART 3.2.10 – CHANGES IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 90 CHART 3.2.11 – SEASONAL USE/TOTAL HOUSING UNITS BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 92 CHART 3.2.12 – MEDIAN HOUSING VALUES IN 2014 DOLLARS 2010‐2014 ...... 94 CHART 3.2.13– DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING VALUES BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 96 CHART 3.2.14 – HOUSING TYPES BY # OF UNITS IN STRUCTURE BY PERCENT 2010‐2014 ...... 99 CHART 3.2.17(1) – WAGE COMPARISONS BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS BY PERCENT 2014 ...... 109 CHART 3.3(1) – ALL INDUSTRIES LOCATION QUOTIENTS CHART ...... 126 CHART 7.1(1) – SITE ASSEMBLAGE PRIMER ...... 248
List of Maps Page EXHIBIT A.1 – NORTH FORT MYERS STUDY AREA ...... 9 EXHIBIT 3.1.1 – NORTH FORT MYERS CDP ...... 65 EXHIBIT 3.1.2 – 5‐, 10‐, 15‐, AND 20‐MINUTE DRIVE‐TIME POLYGONS ...... 67 EXHIBIT 3.1.3 – DRIVE TIME POLYGONS & ROAD NETWORK ...... 68 EXHIBIT 3.1.4 – CENSUS TRACTS OVERLAY OF 20‐MINUTE DRIVE POLYGON ...... 69 EXHIBIT 3.1.5 – NORTH FORT MYERS STUDY AREA ...... 70 EXHIBIT 3.2.1 – POPULATION GROWTH 2010‐2014 ...... 72 EXHIBIT 3.2.2(1) – MEDIAN AGE 2014 ...... 74 EXHIBIT 3.2.2(2) – CHANGES IN MEDIAN AGE BY PERCENT 2010‐2104 ...... 75 EXHIBIT 3.2.11(1) – TOTAL HOUSING UNITS CHANGE 2010‐2014 ...... 93 EXHIBIT 3.2.13(1) – MEDIAN HOUSING VALUES 2014 ...... 98 EXHIBIT 4.1(1) – STUDY AREA ZONING DISTRICTS ...... 166 EXHIBIT 4.2(1) – STUDY AREA – ALL PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 167 EXHIBIT 4.2(2).A – STUDY AREA – HOUSING PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 168 EXHIBIT 4.2(2).B– STUDY AREA – HOUSING PARCELS ABSENTEE OWNERSHIP INVENTORY ...... 169 EXHIBIT 4.2(3) – STUDY AREA – RETAIL & FOOD SERVICE PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 170 EXHIBIT 4.2(4) – STUDY AREA – OFFICE & COMMERCIAL PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 171 EXHIBIT 4.2(5) – STUDY AREA – LODGING PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 172 EXHIBIT 4.2(6) – STUDY AREA NON PROFIT/ NON‐TAXABLE PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 173 EXHIBIT 4.2(7) – STUDY AREA VACANT RESIDENTIAL PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 174 EXHIBIT 4.2(8) – STUDY AREA VACANT COMMERCIAL & COMMERCIAL & ANOTHER PARCELS INVENTORY ...... 175 EXHIBIT 4.3(1) – STUDY AREA MARKET VALUE DIFFERENTIAL 2015/2016 – ALL PARCELS ...... 176 EXHIBIT 4.3(2) – STUDY AREA MARKET VALUE DIFFERENTIAL < 25% 2015/2016 – ALL PARCELS ...... 177 EXHIBIT 6.2.1 (1) – NFM RETAIL TRADING AREA 5‐MINUTE, 10‐MINUTE, & 15‐MINUTE DRIVE TIMES (RECAP OF EXHIBIT 3.1.3) ... 208 EXHIBIT 7.1(1) – LEETRAN BUS ROUTES ...... 253
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment summarizes the evaluation of a Study Area within this community that is significantly in need of investment and upgrade. The study was commissioned by Lee County in March of 2016 and was conducted by a team led by DCG Corplan Consulting LLC (DCG Corplan). The primary objective is an identification of the market demand for a mix of development uses and to pinpoint strategic actions that would facilitate the revitalization of North Fort Myers. The Study Area is highlighted in red in Map A (note the North Shore Map A. North Fort Myers Study Area Park highlighted in green).
Introduction The analysis recognizes Lee County’s rapid population growth coupled with the Study Area’s proximity to downtown Fort Myers and Cape Coral as primary drivers for why this area will be important in the future. Historically, population expansion northward from Fort Myers drove the retail development along the US 41 and Business 41 highway corridors until interstate highway development and Cape Coral’s population growth re‐focused a wave of retail investment north of the Study Area and left a void in its wake. Market realities have caused a steady economic decline in the Study Area, and many once‐thriving businesses are today in financial distress. Vacancies are visibly prevalent and many properties are for sale. With recovery from the 2008 Recession, North Fort Myers should have emerged as a target for investment in several development categories, but investor interest is lagging. Public surveying and business interviews have been instrumental in uncovering many of the underlying issues that are holding back revitalization efforts.
Attributes of the Study Area The Study Area’s obvious site advantage is its waterfront location on the Caloosahatchee River. With superb skyline views and proximity to Downtown Fort Myers and Cape Coral, the Study Area can provide a linkage to both cities and benefits from high traffic flow into and out
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 1 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT of Fort Myers via US 41 and Business 41 and connections northward. Access to Interstate 75 is within fifteen minutes, and Southwest FL International Airport is about a twenty‐minute drive. Bus service to Downtown Fort Myers and Cape Coral is available and likely to improve. Nearby amenities such as the active retail corridor on Pine Island Road, the waterfront entertainment venues at Marinatown, and the Shell Factory and Nature Park provide the Study Area with destination opportunities for families and tourists. The Cape Coral‐Fort Myers Metro Area is considered one of the fastest‐growing markets in the US, and the region is garnering interest by corporations as possible locations for new business development. Following this trend, job growth in the North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) is projected at about 8,000 new positions by year 2020. The NFM‐MA, as determined by DCG Corplan, extends to about a twenty‐minute driving radius from the center of the Study Area and encompasses about 40% of the Lee County population. Employment is expected to increase in white collar occupations. With rising educational attainment levels and growth in the younger “millennial” population sector, DCG Corplan forecasts growth in management, business, science and arts occupations. This will be evident in educational service, information technology, healthcare, public administration, wholesale, real estate, and business management industries. Retail is not forecasted to create enhanced demand for the Study Area, but a modest growth is to be expected. Food service and accommodation, on the other hand, are recognized to be growth targets. Revitalization Challenges In evaluating the Study Area, many challenges to the revitalization effort exist. Among these are the fundamental nature of the bifurcating US 41 and Business 41 highways, lack of east‐ west travel other than Pondella Road, restricted public access to the waterfront, crime and image issues associated with Cabana City, and a generally lack of identity and “sense of place” for the Study Area. Absent are the arts and cultural amenities often found in other successful waterfront locations, and perhaps due to that fact alone, the apparent lack of developer interest. Surveyed public responses often centered on the poor level of building maintenance, the high number of vacancies, lack of zoning enforcement, the unavailability of waterfront activities, the difficulty of highway access to stores, flooding conditions of many properties after heavy rainfall, and the water quality of the Caloosahatchee River. Demographic constraints range from an aging population with low spending power, historically lower levels of educational attainment (now changing for the better), traditionally
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 2 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT marginal growth in the labor force, decline in median house values, and lack of available housing choices. Whether viewed as a constraint or merely as an observation, the Study Area contains a high number of mobile homes. Many of these parks are located on sites that, if redeveloped, would command higher and better uses and generate significantly higher property tax revenues and result in greater economic impacts for Lee County. Either by choice or by lack of available options, attendance and spending on cultural, leisure and sporting events in this market is significantly below state averages. Household expenditures for many consumer items are also quite low. Real Estate Demand Projections Market demand for real estate investment was based on absorption characteristics of population growth, housing prices, retail sales capture, lodging patterns, job growth, and leisure spending. For each category of real estate demand, an investment model was generated to prove out various occupancies, investment levels, and returns on investments and profitability for prospective developers. No special incentives or required Lee County improvements were determined as necessary to achieve market absorption of these scenarios. Potential sites within the Study Area were identified as analysis models for these hypothetical projects, often requiring multiple parcel assemblages. Lee County market valuations, called Just appraisals, were utilized as a basis for formulating land prices for the models, but often increased through DCG Corplan’s experience that selling prices are generally higher than market estimates. It must be noted that existing property owners were not consulted for their consent, and the study in no way suggests that these properties have been allocated for use in investment or marketing. Projections for the Study Area’s market absorption result in the following estimates: Housing: 400+ mid‐rise condominium units and 220+ rental units. Retail: 18,000 sf of new consumer‐ and business‐oriented retail space Lodging: 120+ rooms plus conference space Office: 320,000+ sf of new office space Flex/Wholesale: 50,000+ sf of flex space. Sports/Recreational: 25,000+ sf indoor sports recreation Food Service: 29,000+ SF fine dining and catering facilities
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Conclusions and Recommendations There is market opportunity in Lee County’s strong population growth and the Study Area’s unique location as a linkage to the cities of Fort Myers and Cape Coral. Projected job growth and its associated demand for new office space will propel the Study Area forward as a new “downtown” business center, capable of intercepting commuters and providing professional and business services to a growing North Fort Myers community. As former and underutilized highway‐oriented retail is transformed into a new vibrant combination of offices, entertainment, institutional and cultural uses, a recognition of a “sense of place” will evolve and demand for housing should emerge that will encourage “millennials” to consider the Study Area as an attractive live‐work environment. Organic infill of newer shops, galleries, theaters, and other uses will naturally occur, and speculative interest in Cabana City should begin to transform this largely blighted area into a sought‐after “niche” housing neighborhood that offers “old‐Florida” charm but also stimulates development of more modern housing options. Key to the Study Area’s transformation is the access to the Caloosahatchee River front. Subject to additional feasibility analyses, recommendations to Lee County include the development of a new riverfront park, complete with recreation areas, walking esplanade, jogging/biking paths and a boat launch. Other waterfront developments options include mid‐ rise condominium housing and a new business hotel. To attract developer interest, the Study Area would benefit from a more flexible set of zoning standards that will allow for taller buildings, increased density, and flexible uses, while providing more open green space between projects. Some of the steps outlined in this report are long term, requiring additional evaluation, but others can be accomplished in the near term. These include the following: 1. Work with FDOT to improve access to corridor businesses along Highway 41 and Business 41 2. Develop plan to facilitate the aggregation of properties that currently present a challenge to potential investors 3. Address regulatory issues that prevent or deter development, including modifying current height and density limitations 4. Formulate a non‐profit development agency or dedicate additional County staff to determine the best way to facilitate County approved revitalization strategies. 5. Create a campaign to re‐image Study Area as a “welcoming destination”
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6. Create a “value‐added” incentive program to encourage development 7. Consider public investments for stimulating private investment
Chart A.1 ‐‐ NFM Study Area – Investment Matrix Market Assessment Topic Attribute Constraint Location Waterfront location (Caloosahatchee River) Proximity to Downtown Fort Myers (6 minutes) and Cape Coral (21 minutes) High traffic flow into and out of Fort Myers (US 41 and Business 41) Mass transit (bus) service to Downtown Fort Myers and Cape Coral Adjacency to active retail corridor (Pine Island Road) Interstate 75 accessibility (15 minutes) Southwest FL International Airport accessibility (22 minutes) Proximity to Shell Factory & Nature Park as “family destination” Bifurcating highways with limited east‐west access Difficult businesses access from US 41 & frontage issues on Business 41 Restricted public access to waterfront Public perception about localized crime and danger Lack of identity and “sense of place” Developer interest is limited without incentives and impact fee reductions Land use codes are viewed as restrictive Absence of arts or cultural drivers Physical isolation and lack of traffic circulation through Cabana City Labor Force Strong forecasted Cape Coral‐Fort Myers MSA overall employment growth Over 8,000 new jobs forecasted for eight identified target industries Projected white‐collar job growth Wage advantages over State in white‐collar, sales, and most blue‐collar jobs Adequate supply of executive‐aged workers Historic labor force decline No large local employer to generate local businesses activity Real Estate & Physical High‐rise development (North Star Yacht Club) Waterfront tourism development (Marinatown) Projected absorption of over 400 condominium residential units Projected absorption of over 200 rental residential units Projected absorption of over 300,000 SF of office space Projected absorption of over 18,000 SF of retail space Projected absorption of over 120 lodging rooms plus conference space Projected absorption of over 50,000 SF flex/wholesale space
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Projected absorption of over 25,000 SF indoor sports recreation Projected absorption of over 29,000 SF fine dining/catering facilities High vacancy level among retail and commercial properties High absentee ownership rate in Cabana City Poor quality of housing stock in Cabana City High number of older mobile homes Lack of greenspace or other pedestrian amenities High percentage of homestead exempted properties High vacancy level among retail and commercial properties Poorly maintained vacant buildings Mostly below average lodging stock Infrastructure & Environmental Potential sewage treatment available capacity Storm water flooding conditions Perceived Caloosahatchee River water quality Lack of bulkheading and dredging in waterfront areas Comparison to Comparison to Market Demography Topic Attribute Constraint Lee County State of FL Population Characteristics Population growth rate Lower Higher Median Age Lower Higher Rate of Aging Faster Faster Males Median Age Lower Higher Female Median Age Same Higher Share of Working Ages (16‐65 yrs.) Fewer Fewer Middle‐Age Workers (45‐64 yrs.) Same Same Senior Age (65+ yrs.) Lower Higher Gender, Race & Languages Gender Balance Better Better Racial Diversification Less Less Language Spoken at Home – English Rising Rising only preference % Households & Income Households growth rate Lower Lower Household Size growth rate Faster Slower Median Household Income Lower Lower Household Income rate of change Slower Faster (decline) Lower Income Cohort Share % Higher Lower Middle Income Cohort Share % Higher Higher Upper Income Cohort Share % Lower Lower
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Educational Attainment High School/GED Only Education Higher Higher Attainment Share % Some College Only (no graduation) Higher Higher Education Attainment Share % All College Graduates Education Lower Lower Attainment Share % Associates Degree Growth Rate Faster Faster Bachelor’s Degree Growth Rate Slower Slower Graduate Degree Growth Rate Faster Faster All College Graduates Growth Rate Faster Faster Housing Total Housing Inventory growth rate Slower Slower Occupied Housing Inventory growth Slower Slower rate Vacant Housing Inventory growth rate Slower Slower Seasonal Use Housing Growth Rate Faster Faster Median Values Change Rate (decline) Faster Faster Weighted Average Home price Lower Lower Single‐family type growth rate Faster Faster Duplex unit type growth rate Faster Faster 3‐4 Unit type growth rate Slower Faster 10‐19 Unit type growth rate Faster Faster 20+ Unit type growth rate Slower Slower Rate of Growth of Homeowner Units Slower Slower Rate of Growth of Rental Units Slower Faster Average Rental Price Point Lower Lower Labor & Earnings Labor Force Change Rate (decline) Faster Faster Management, Business, Science and Faster Faster Arts occupations growth rate Services occupations growth rate Slower Slower Sales and Office occupations growth Slower Same rate Natural resources, Construction, and Slower Slower Maintenance occupations growth rate Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations growth Slower Slower rate Management, Business, Science and Withheld from Lower Arts occupations avg. hrly. wage further analysis Services occupations avg. hrly. wage Higher
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Sales and Office occupations avg. hrly. Higher wage Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance occupations avg. hrly. Higher Withheld from wage further analysis Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations avg. hrly. Lower wage Healthcare Occupations avg. hrly. wage Higher Consumer Spending Expenditures on Sporting equipment Withheld from Lower Attendance at Sporting Events further analysis Lower Attendance at Cultural Events Lower
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Overview Introduction and Study Methodology
This report summarizes the market assessment and forecast for an area of North Fort Myers conducted by a team led by DCG Corplan Consulting LLC (DCG Corplan). The Exhibit A.1 below highlights the boundaries of the North Fort Myers (NFM) Study Area. The Study Area extends from the Caloosahatchee River to Pondella Road and includes the lands between and immediately adjacent to US 41 and Business 41. There are numerous vacant or underutilized commercial properties within the Study Area as well as housing areas that in need revitalization and investment.
Exhibit A.1 – North Fort Myers Study Area
Source: Lee County; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
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The primary objective of this report is to provide a framework for the supply and demand characteristics of the Study Area. DCG Corplan conducted numerous interviews and surveys with the public, local property owners, stakeholders, public officials, and outside investment professionals ‐‐ several key observations have been noted by the study team, including: The poorly maintained conditions of the empty retail stores within the Study Area The underutilization of the Caloosahatchee River waterfront Low income, vagrancy and crime issues in an around the Cabana City area The unmet opportunity that the Study Area offers and the pent‐up frustration for action By evaluating a wide range of economic factors, an assessment of the market for the North Fort Myers Study Area has been achieved and is presented in the following sections. In each sub‐section (Task), key findings precede the research and provide reference to the appropriate data. The report is organized into seven main Tasks. The first “Task” was to tour the site environs, meet with Lee County officials and stakeholders, and then to brief the public on the study and its objectives. In Task two, a process of information gathering was conducted that consisted of 33 separate interviews with business and community leaders and the implementation of an online public survey. The third Task covered empirical market research on the market area surrounding and including the Study Area. The research comprised population, income, education, housing, labor force, earnings, and consumer spending patterns. Added to this was an abbreviated Target Industry analysis that forecasted employment in the market area and the specific industries where this growth will occur. In a fourth Task, the real estate supply within the Study Area was analyzed, with an outlook toward patterns of market value fluctuation. A detailed SWOT(T) analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats and Trends) was prepared in Task five. The next Task estimated potential real estate demand within the Study Area by capture rate. The topics covered included housing, retail office & commercial, cultural & recreational, and mixed use. Pro forma financial analysis accompanied the investigations. A final seventh Task assembled all the preceding analyses into a set of Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary recommendations for further action. An Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) of public investments was prepared for fiscal evaluation of the direct, indirect and induced impacts of each recommended course of action.
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Key Findings
Task One – Project Kick‐off The project was initiated with a site tour on March 8, 2016. The project Kick‐off meeting was held on the morning of March 9, 2016 at the Lee County offices at 2201 Second Ave., Fort Myers.
A public meeting, facilitated by Rachel Busch, was held the evening of March 9, 2016 at the Lee County Amin. East building located at 2201 Second Street, Fort Myers, FL 33901. Introduction was made by County Commissioner Brian Hamman. The Panel Team included Bruce Hoch, Norman Taylor, and John Dolan‐Heitlinger. The meeting gave the public the opportunity to express their opinions about the Study Area and to inquire as to the process of the study. A series of questions were presented and answered, and a generally favorable response by the public was received. Side discussions after the meeting proved to be the most fruitful.
Site Observations by Study Team Poorly maintained vacant retail and commercial facilities in the Study Area Lack of significant brokerage or other signage signaling active business recruitment by current owners Restricted east‐west movement through the Study Area other than Pondella Road Lack of landscaping, bike paths, or pedestrian amenities along US 41 and Business 41 Limited setbacks for businesses located on Business 41 Competing retail corridor north of the Study Area (Pine Island Road) Limited public access to the Caloosahatchee River waterfront Other than the Best Western and the Red Roof Inn, the poor quality of available or shuttered lodging facilities High number of mobile home residents Poor quality of housing in Cabana City Tourism development around marina (Marinatown) just outside the Study Area High quality of North Star Yacht Cub high‐rises west of the Study Area Lack of compelling arts or other cultural amenities which normally help to establish a “sense of place”
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Response from Public Active public engagement attitude Pent‐up frustration for revitalization action
Task Two – Conduct Business & Stakeholder Interviews
To provide a framework for understanding the market, telephone interviews were conducted between mid‐March and mid‐June 2016 with members of the business and development communities. The following represents summaries of the interview process. Business Interviews Developers Eight real estate development companies in the Lee County, Collier, and Charlotte County area plus an out of area firm were contacted for interviews. Given the demographics and physical deterioration of the housing stock and retail space in the Study Area, the interviewed developers did not seem enthusiastic about becoming involved in a development in the Study Area. One firm commented that mixed‐use development projects are becoming more complex than single‐use projects and the difficulty in getting the retail side to participate is more of an effort than accomplishing the residential development. There was a consensus that redeveloping the Study Area may require incentives, tax abatements, zoning changes, or other governmental actions to make commercial and housing development in the area more attractive. Increasing the amount of higher‐end housing in and adjacent to the Study Area would be a critical part of revitalizing the market. Most of the respondents indicated that they would be open to at least reviewing a prospectus or report on the North Fort Myers Study Area. Land Use Attorneys The respondents agreed that revitalization of the Study Area will require a means of financing or taxation relief that will be palatable to the development community while not impacting the sensitive political nature of this unincorporated part of Lee County. Most agreed that the Lee County Plan and Land Development Code should be addressed. Comments included that they would advise County to loosen leashes on NFM; provide infrastructure; increase height and density limitations; and, adopt new urbanism for a village concept.
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An interviewee commented on positive enticement of high density projects to the advantage of developers, and ultimately residents. The County should continue to review and revise their zoning laws to make higher density development possible in NFM. The County should make efforts to eliminate so many vacant properties in NFM. Brokers, Business Owners, and Public Stakeholders A diverse group of stakeholders were contacted and casually interviewed by telephone or E‐mail. Wide‐ranging comments included that recent projects in Lee County have received significant financial assistance such as Tax Increment Financing (TIF). TIF subsidies are being phased out in Fort Myers due to over use but developers are still expecting their application. Incentives such as tax credit and tax‐freezing tools have been successful in mixed‐use developments.
Public Survey The goal of this element was the gathering of market intelligence about North Fort Myers from the public by means of an online survey. The survey was available from March 24, 2016 until April 30, 2016, resulting in 519 responses. Overwhelmingly, the physical conditions and vacancies of the existing building stock was mentioned. Retail amenities sought included higher‐end and a greater variety shopping choices. Often, the need for casual dining restaurants was cited. Business services sought focused mainly on healthcare, personal care, pet services, and professional/technical business support. Fitness, recreation, and entertainment opportunities were also prevalent in the responses. In more than 80% of responses, the desire to connect with the riverfront was a central point. Waterfront entertainment options were frequently mentioned. In a final question, the suggestion was placed for a new business center to be constructed in the Study Area intended as an intercept location for the large commuting workforce from Cape Coral into Fort Myers via local streets and US 41. In a strong 65% response rate, responders agreed that a new corporate office presence would potentially reduce personal commuting time or those of employees.
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Task Three – Assess Market Area Demography, Economic Conditions and Patterns of Change Defining the Market Area The North Fort Myers US Census Designated Census Place (CDP) description excludes some key population areas and was not considered as a reliable unit of measure. North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) was defined by DCG Corplan as having a 20‐minute drive time radius polygon originating from the middle of the Study Area. Sixty (60) US Census Tracts are covered by the 20‐minute polygon and Census data for 2010‐2014 (five years of reporting) has been utilized as basis of most of the data collection and analysis. Market Demography Key Metrics The table below summarizes key metrics developed in this investigation.
NFM Market Area 2014 Population 271,436 Population annual growth rate (2010‐2014) 1.33% Median Age 44.6 yrs. Working‐Age Persons (16‐65 yrs.) 59% Households annual growth rate ‐0.3% Median Household Income $43,833 College Graduates (% of 25+ age population) 29.2% Average House Value $159,550 Average Apartment Rental Price ‐ Month $885 Employed Labor Force 106,194 Labor Participation Rate 55.0% Average Hourly Earnings $14.84
Attributes of North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA)
Availability of executive‐aged workers Adequate Percentage share of middle income earners Number of persons who have some college experience but not graduated Growing number of Associate Degrees earned Growing number of Graduate Degrees earned Growing number of all College Degrees earned
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Tightening in the supply of vacant housing inventory Growth in number of seasonal use homes Lower average home prices Growth in number of single home development Growth in the number of white‐collar jobs Wage savings available to prospective office employers Wage saving available to prospective blue‐collar employers Constraints of North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) Increasing rate of aging Fewer overall numbers of working aged persons (16‐65 yrs.) Decreasing foreign language comprehension and capability Lower household growth rate Lower median household income Higher percentage share of high school/GED‐only educational attainment Lower percentage share of all College graduate educational attainment Slower growth rate in number of Bachelor’s Degrees earned Slower growth rate in total housing inventory Faster decline in median house value Slower growth rate of 20+ unit housing construction Slower growth rate of homeowner units (versus rental units) Faster decline in labor force size Slower growth rate in Services occupations Slower growth rate in Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance occupations Slower growth rate in Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations Higher costs of Services occupations Higher costs of Sales and Office occupations Higher costs of Healthcare occupations Higher costs of Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance occupations Lower consumer expenditures on Sporting equipment
Target Industries In this section, targeted industries were identified as those businesses that demonstrate an increasing strength in the NFM‐MA and the Study Area and will continue to flourish into the future. The Location Quotient (LQ) methodology was employed that graphically interpreted
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 15 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT industry growth trends. The goal of the LQ analyses was to identify local industries that are performing at higher levels of employment concentration than their state counterparts, thereby indicating that these industries have a more important role locally than regionally. Locally strong industries are easily promoted and reinforced by economic development initiatives and help to identify the locality’s unique characteristics. Seven (7) occupational categories were identified as high growth (Primary) opportunities for the NFM‐MA based on available labor and projections of Lee County employment gains: o Management o Health Care Technicians o IT & Computers o Healthcare Support o Educational, Training & Library o Building & Grounds Maintenance o Health Care Diagnosing
Four (4) occupational categories were identified as moderate growth opportunities (Secondary): o Life & Physical. Sciences o Legal o Community & Social Services o Material Moving
Five (5) occupational categories identified as likely growth opportunities (Tertiary): o Business & Financial o Construction & Extraction o Architectural & Engineering o Installation, Maintenance & Repair o Personal Care & Service
Correlation of occupational growth categories to actual industry concentration by occupation (nationally) results in the following ranking of recommended target industries by probable sustainability of job recruitment of the NFM‐MA labor force:
1. Educational Services 2. Health Care & Social Assistance 3. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 4. Public Administration 5. Wholesale Trade 6. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 7. Management of Companies and Enterprises (HQ) 8. Accommodation & Food Services
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Task Four – Review Real Estate Market Supply and Patterns of Performance In this section, real estate supply was reviewed. Topics covered included: Zoning and Land Use – current ordinance review Total Property Inventory (occupied and vacant) o Occupied – Housing, Retail and Food Service, Office and Commercial, Lodging, and Non‐Profit/Non‐taxable. (In the review of housing, special attention has been paid to Cabana City as this is the largest residential component of the Study Area) o Vacant – Vacant Residential and Vacant Commercial/Other Growth in Market Value – changes in appraised parcel values 2015/2016 and value differentials GIS mapping that graphically illustrate the data findings Key Metrics Key metrics that describe the Study Area are as follows: Total Area 280 total parcels (195.15 acres) 233 occupied parcels 47 vacant Parcels (commercial and residential)
Housing 153 housing parcels (46.98 acres) 54 Homestead exempted parcels 52% Housing Absentee ownership rate 54% Housing Absentee ownership rate ‐ Cabana City Avg. Single family housing sales price of $154/PSF Avg. Townhouse sales price of $124/PSF Avg. Condominium sales price of $118/PSF
Commercial 38 Retail & Food service parcels (71.86 acres) Approximately 651,000 SF of Retail & Food service total space Retail Asking Rent Range of $6.37 to $14.00 PSF 30 Office & Commercial parcels (18.76 acres) Avg. Floor‐Area Ratio (FAR) of 0.24 Office & Commercial Asking Rent Range of $ $9.70 to $14.40 PSF
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Lodging 6 Lodging parcels (16.60 acres)
Not‐Profit/Non‐Taxable 6 Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable parcels 6 (7.92 acres)
Vacant 25 Vacant residential parcels (8.24 acres) 22 Vacant commercial & other parcels (24.79 acres)
The Study Area consists of nine zoning districts: five commercial and four residential. The five most prevalent land uses by total acreage are Single Family Residential, Shopping Center, Community, Commercial, Vacant, Store, One (1) Floor, and Motel. The Study Area is located within the Mixed‐Use Overlay which may be utilized to support revitalization efforts. By order of total acreage, housing is grouped in: Single Family Residential; Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units; Mobile Home Parks; and, Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units. Homestead exemption applies to 48 single‐family; and, 6 multi‐family less than 10 units.
Motel properties in the Study Area produced a weighted average Google Rating of 2.7 (out of 5.0) which is substandard for quality hotel brands. A new hotel property in the Study Area should be based on a guideline of 41 rooms per acre in a four‐story configuration as determined through weighted averaging of 13 Fort Myers hotel properties. For Cabana City, vacant residential properties represent 68% of the total vacant residential number, but only 32% of the total acreage. Vacant commercial parcels are somewhat scattered but there are assemblage possibilities, including combined vacant and underutilized commercial or other properties. Large areas of commercial properties along US 41 and Business 41 demonstrate little appreciation in value. Overall, there has not very appreciable recovery in property values from pre‐recessionary levels.
Task Five – SWOT(T) Analysis To clearly identify key drivers for successful revitalization, DCG Corplan has employed the use of the SWOT(T) Analysis as an effective tool in evaluating the Strengths (S), Weaknesses (W), Opportunities (O), and Threats (T) affecting the Study Area. A parallel examination of
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 18 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT emerging Trends (T) in similarly situated communities within the region or nationally provided insight into potential solutions. Summaries of the SWOT(T) evaluation were as follows: Strength‐Opportunity Strategies: o Focus on Lee County’s role in stimulating investor/developer interest o Prepare an investment prospectus that offers regulatory and financial incentives Strength‐Threats Strategies: o Focus on tactics designed to arrest common perceptions and issues that have historically served as disincentives o Develop a comprehensive infrastructure strategy to support commercial and residential development o Lee County Government’s continued support of local and regional strategies relating to water quality should be pronounced in the context of an overall redevelopment plan Weakness – Opportunity Strategies: o Focus on strategies that will capitalize on high traffic by creating better opportunities for commuters to access local businesses along the corridor (increased signalization, elevated pedestrian causeway, etc.) Weakness – Threats Strategies: o Identify both obvious, as well as subliminal issues that negatively impact the success of many small businesses along the Highway 41 Corridors o Lee County support of property aggregation in the Study Area, including judicious use of eminent domain takings for transportation or waterfront/environmental reclamation o Reduce blighted areas such as Cabana City by encouraging more home ownership, reducing migrant or temporary rentals, and relocating the mobile home parks from the Study Area Recommendation: Amend current zoning ordinances to: o Provide bonus density allowances for site development that incorporate vacant properties o Facilitate property aggregation o Improve access to and parking on commercial properties along US Highway 41 corridors
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o Provide wide‐ranging implementation of the Mixed‐Use Overlay regulation in the Study Area Recommendation: Enforce current statutes requiring maintenance of vacant properties Recommendation: Create a new waterfront zone to facilitate new residential and commercial development (building height and density) Recommendation: Create a new focus on North Fort Myers redevelopment issues: o Public‐private partnership with local lenders to create an investment fund capable if used in property acquisitions for site assemblages o Formulate a strategy for creation of low‐cost mortgages for Cabana City renters to purchase properties that are currently being rented o Investigate Lee County‐owned properties that may be utilized in like‐kind exchanges or property swaps with the Study Area businesses such as mobile home park operators Recommendation: Investigate the use of targeted incentives aimed at attracting developer interest in the Study Area: Recommendation: Establish a land bank of acquired properties for future redevelopment that would be maintained by a Non‐Profit or a public‐private agency o Incentivize property owners to sell land to land bank at discounted or “Just” appraised values in exchange for equity positions in future developments o Investigate “crowd funding” opportunities from Lee County residents to fund land bank operating account Recommendation: Consider development of public‐use open spaces, especially near the waterfront, as a needed component in creating a “sense of place” for the Study Area
Task Six – Estimate Existing and Potential Future Unmet Demand for Housing and Commercial Space in the Market Area and Obtainable Capture or Penetration Rates In this Task, various drivers for real estate demand were reviewed by unmet or capture rates expectations. Topics for review included: Residential o For sale (single family, condominium and townhouses)
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o For rent (apartments) Retail Lodging Office/Workplace Sports/Recreational/Cultural Mixed‐Use Review of the North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) performance in each of these areas and a projection of impact on the Study Area was generated. Forecast of space absorption was accompanied by pro forma calculation of a typical investment scenario related to each topic.
Residential NFM‐MA should be absorbing 1,031 new housing units per year based on population growth. New annual construction of 664 for sale units and 367 rental units will meet demand. By building permit, single family is the most commonly built housing type in NFM‐MA, however there appears to be an unmet need for 20+ unit buildings. The weighted average price of a new dwelling in the NFM‐MA is $162,186 in current dollars. Two‐bedroom apartment is the most common rental type in the NFM‐MA. The weighted average price for a new rental unit is $902 per month. The Study Area should be able to capture 412 units of for‐sale housing and 220 units of rental housing per year if the available real estate can support development. A 200‐condominium mid‐rise project located on a former mobile home park should be able to produce a 20.6% profit margin and be considered as a viable development opportunity.
Commercial/Retail Uses Retail Sales Based on average 5‐, 10‐and 15‐minute drive time retail trading areas, the NFM‐MA should be able to support 18,000 sf of new retail space. The Study Area should be able to capture 100% of this demand. Leading categories for retail/ food service capture are Clothing stores, Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages, Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores, Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores, Other general merchandise stores, Shoe stores, and Book stores. An 18,000 SF strip retail center in the Study Area on a 1.1‐acre site should be able to
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 21 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT be rented for $14.00 PSF (NNN) and produce a financially viable 18.4% profit margin. A 75,000 SF neighborhood shopping center would not produce achievable results unless anchor tenant rent was raised well above local market capability. Lodging A 123‐room business hotel on 3 acres of land would be considered as a demand filler if new office space is added to the Study Area. This project would produce a RevPar (Revenue per Available Room) of $91 per night and result in a viable 21.7% profit margin. Office/Workplace Job forecasts for the NFM‐MA indicate a growth of 1,359 persons yearly. New employment in targeted industries would produce a three‐year demand for over 8,000 new jobs. At a 25% capture rate, the Study Area could support as much as 323,000 SF of new commercial space. While It is anticipated that this space inventory will take time to evolve, a catalyst project could provide the impetus, especially noting that there is no Class “A” office space in NFM. New class “A” office space rental rates would be about $19.50 PSF. “Flex” style wholesaling space would command a $10.00 PSF asking rent. A 100,000 SF professional office park on a 5.3‐acre lot in the Study Area with highway frontage should produce a 24.7% profit margin. A 50,000 SF “flex” building on a 3.0‐acre site should result in a 17.1% profit margin. Sports/Recreational/Cultural The most popular NFM‐MA land‐based recreational activities are walking, jogging, bicycling, and hiking. Easily accessible water‐oriented pursuits include swimming, fishing, boating and kayaking. Gun and bow target shooting represents a primary activity (exceeds State of Florida in participation by percent of households) for the NFM‐MA. Lee County is an established center for sports and recreational activities with numerous venues capable of supporting the sports culture within the County. For most NFM‐MA residents, sports venues are within easy reach by automobile. But, NFM‐MA lags both Lee County and the State of Florida in spending categories for sports/recreational/cultural activities. A partially retrofitted vacant shopping center could support an indoor shooting range with a 19.8% profit margin.
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Mixed Use Large mixed‐used developments, either vertically‐ or horizontally‐integrated, typically require higher land use density and are more expensive to build than single‐use buildings. The Study Area should be able to absorb 790 rental housing units in mixed‐use development over a fifteen‐month period. A density of 25 units per acre is about the highest acceptable land use, which would require a site of 32 acres or multiple assemblages. Retail absorption equals 13,500 SF. Lodging is not included in the model. A projection of 33% of Study Area office demand, or 108,000 SF, is used. Site(s) of 32 acres would require assemblage of vacant or underutilized parcels with significant land costs estimated at $500,000 per acre, despite lower market value determinations from preceding tax sales data (DCG Corplan’s recommended figure). Due to higher base building costs for mixed‐use and at the $902 average rental rate and retail and office rents maintained at levels suggested above, the project would fail to reach financial viability and would incur a $56 million loss. Manipulation of rental price points through sensitivity analysis results in a required $1,500 monthly average rent to produce a 20% profit margin, which is about a minimum threshold for developers. From all previous research, apartments renting in this price range are currently beyond the expectations of the North Fort Myers market. For the NFM‐MA, 2016 median household income is estimated at $44,702. To qualify for a $1,500 per month apartment, household income needs to be at least $60,000 per year.
Assumptions of $500,000‐per acre land prices could be questioned; however, land costs are not the influencing factor. The problem is that much more goes into a mixed‐use building: mechanical plant, plumbing distribution, fire protection system, electric room, freight elevators, emergency and maintenance stairways, and covered parking. As remarked by two local NFM‐area developers (Task 2 interviews), the failure rate of embedded retail in mixed‐ use is quite high, making this a difficult challenge. The reality is that vertically‐integrated mixed‐use development in the North Fort Myers Study Area is not a viable avenue to pursue, unless subsidized. Even more limited projects on smaller lots does not alter the outcome. Reliance on single‐use properties of lower cost is a recommended as preferable course of action over subsidization.
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Recommendations for the Study Area Revitalization
DCG Corplan has developed a three‐step process for the Study Area incorporating 13 strategic initiatives that will provide the framework for the Study Area’s revitalization. Level One recommendations should be considered as near‐term objectives that Lee County should be able to effectively address within the next calendar year. Level Two and Three Revitalization Scenarios are more long‐term in nature and will require a longer period to achieve. Revitalization Scenario: Level One – Starting Point (Near Term) In this initial phase, approaches to current conditions and immediate future actions are presented. This is a status‐quo starting point initiative, requiring little public action or cost.
Strategic Recommendation #1 – Property Maintenance Enforcement of current zoning ordinances regarding property maintenance is essential. It is highly recommended that violations be actively prosecuted with resulting fines assessed to the maximum extent.
Strategic Recommendation #2 – Study Area Property Owners’ Coalition Gathering local property owners into a cohesive organization is helpful in putting a “face” on the Study Area. The Commercial Corridor Revitalization Subcommittee should continue its efforts on the common needs of the Study Area and respond to calls for action.
Strategic Recommendation #3 – Study Area Revitalization Online Resource A new online resource should be developed that hosts the study findings and appendices, provide interactive mapping of the properties with overlays of recommended uses, offers interactive aerial drone photo‐imagery, and provides property records support required on the “backend” of the GIS data mapping. Most likely, the County’s Develop North Fort Myers website1 can be used as the framework for the resource, with a link embedded to new pages that are dedicated solely for the revitalization of the Study Area. It is important that this resource appear as a standalone website that can be viewed by prospective developers and offers a sophisticated message designed to encourage investment.
1 http://www.leecountybusiness.com/develop‐lee/develop‐north‐fort‐myers/
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Strategic Recommendation #4 – Allowance for Temporary Uses For the Study Area, holders of vacant shopping centers or empty commercial lands could benefit from temporary urbanism or “pop‐up” facilities as currently allowed under the temporary use provisions of the County’s Land Development Code. By establishing a schedule of free creative events that take place simultaneously on these properties such as music festivals, farmers’ markets, or arts exhibits and the provision of transportation linkages between them such as free bus/trolley rides, a successful establishment of the Study Area as an entertainment or cultural destination is possible, at relatively low cost. It is recommended that the Lee County Visitor & Convention Bureau (VCB) be engaged to interface with these property owners to coordinate leasing, insurance, performance fees, and transportation.
Revitalization Scenario: Level Two – Place‐Making (Mid‐Term) This second step requires a higher level of commitment and should be undertaken if the preceding scenario proves to be successful.
Strategic Recommendation #5 – Flexible Zoning The Study Area is located within the Mixed‐Use Overlay as an area appropriate for mixed use. The use of conventional zoning districts, with modified development regulations, should be encouraged to promote redevelopment without having to rezone. Modified development regulations in the Mixed‐Use Overlay could permit increased building heights, up to 135 feet, increased lot coverage, reduced setbacks, and reduced parking. The Overlay extends beyond the study area and encompasses both sides of US 41. This will allow significant density increases as well as a mix of uses which will prove attractive to the development community which normally seek opportunities for more intensive land use. Along with utilizing the Mixed‐Use Overlay, DCG Corplan also recommends the creation of Waterfront Redevelopment Zone along the river. The objective of this zone is to promote waterfront compatible uses such as multi‐family housing, lodging, or outdoor recreational uses. and to limit the private use of the waterfront and encourage greater public access. Use of existing overlays, such as the Water Dependent Overlay and Mixed‐Use Overlay, should be explored and the waterfront properties should be designated as appropriate.
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Strategic Recommendation #6 – Street Grid Connections DCG Corplan recommends that the County examine ways to connect the street grid of Cabana City to US 41 similar to the adopted voluntary regulating plan for the NFM Town Center. Acquisition of properties west of River Road would allow Cabana Ave. and Oak Street, the two main collector streets, to meet the rear of Hancock Bridge Plaza and at least provide some traffic access east and west. More cars on these streets would also provide better visibility within Cabana City and allow for easier access by police and emergency vehicles. Lowering of crime rate would in turn generate higher property values and promote more home ownership. A secondary transportation recommendation entails West North Shore Ave. By minor parcel acquisition and the construction of two small bridges, this street can be extended to the rear of existing US 41 commercial properties, thereby providing pedestrian, bicycle and eventual vehicular east‐west connectivity near the riverfront.
Strategic Recommendation #7 – Mass Transit Options The ten‐year update to the LeeTran Transit Development Plan (TDP) will outline new improvements to the system. At present, no route is shown in the TDP Plan for Business 41 into Downtown. It is hoped that a loop route could be established that will allow residents and workers access to both US 41 and Business 41 via downtown Fort Myers. Should this prove untenable, an effort should be made to encourage an entrepreneurial start‐up of a private jitney service offering this loop service. As an accessory to the new route, a park‐and‐ ride lot on a vacant commercial property with a bus stop can be created to help eliminate some traffic flow congestion for commuters traveling from the more northern housing areas. A second mass transit option suggested for the Study Area is a water taxi service from downtown Fort Myers. Ferries have gained popularity throughout the US and provide not only worker commutation options but also allow for safe evening entertainment travel (bar‐ hopping) and sight‐seeing excursions. An initial route suggestion would be service between the Fort Myers District City Pier and the North Shore Park Fishing Pier. A stop at Lofton Island during good weather might also be an inducement for ridership.
Strategic Recommendation #8 – Neighborhood Stabilization and Upgrade Strategies In the Study Area, there are several mobile home locations on prime development parcels such as waterfront and along major transportation arteries. In the opinion of DCG Corplan,
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 26 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT mobile homes in the Study Area are not determined to be the highest and best use of the lands. Lee County may want to consider relocating these parks or upgrading the housing by pursuing neighborhood stabilization and upgrade strategies, including upgrades to the existing housing stock where appropriate, remaining mindful of the County’s affordable housing objectives. For Cabana City, the high degree of absentee home ownership is likely a root cause for many of the social issues relating to a transitory resident class. DCG Corplan recommends that the County pursue a campaign to encourage more home ownership by the area’s residents wherever possible.
Strategic Recommendation #9 – Infrastructure Capabilities Assessment Mitigation of storm water runoff is a common problem for any low‐lying property and on‐site retention is often the preferred solution. Property owners with storm control problems should be canvassed and educated about retention design and a public forum should be conducted as soon as possible to bring the issue to light. A GIS overlay of known flooding conditions of the Study Area should be created and added to the project website. Depending on the extent of site redevelopment, the SFWMD or FDEP will require compliance with current stormwater regulations. Therefore, adequate space should be considered for the retention/detention of stormwater to meet flood protection and water quality criteria. Further, there are known water quality issues in the region. North Shore Park is periodically posted by the Department of Health due to bacteria violations. Also, the Caloosahatchee River is impaired for nutrients. Given a desire to develop water based activities, a pollutant source identification study or analysis should be performed so that corrective actions may be taken. To prepare for future development within the Study Area, Lee County Utilities (LCU) and Florida Governmental Utility Authority (FGUA) should consider the ramifications of this study in terms of impact to the water and wastewater systems and ultimately determine the anticipated needed capital improvements and associated probable costs to accommodate increased demand. From this separate evaluation, a phased approach can be developed as well as identification of funding opportunities to supplement fees and attract new development. Lee County should prepare a predictive range of probable capital costs, develop needed impact fees to cover capital improvements, and opportunities for funding to supplement fees to attract development within the Study Area.
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If a modern workforce is to be adequately supported, adequate telecommunications and broadband internet are absolute necessities. Cell service appears to be adequately available locally, but Lee County must assess the state of broadband in the Study Area. Wi‐Fi use is increasing exponentially and municipally supported free public Wi‐Fi is becoming a major trend (Raleigh, NC, Milford, CT, Omaha, NE, Las Vegas, NV, Sanford, FL, Noblesville, IN ‐‐ just to name a few). Lee County should enquire with local carriers about instituting a free Study Area Wi‐Fi program as a special means of promoting the area. Although there is a cost factor involved, the initiative could provide a unique jump‐start in place‐making. Strategic Recommendation #10 – Branding and Image Building Clearly, a name is required for the Study Area. While the Study Area is within North Fort Myers, even the NFM is not a real town name as the CDP and associated communities are within unincorporated areas of Lee County. As a more intensified center development begins to emerge, recognition of this unique place is required to differentiate its character and identify it as a potential investment candidate. Several names for the Study Area have been used in casual discussions during this engagement. “Riverside”, “North River”, “Uptown”, and others are currently being considered, but these are only suggestions that need to be routed more formally in a branding strategy. At present, the small North River Park at end of the US 41 causeway is the only identifiable branding clue. While “North River” is a reasonably acceptable name, is does little to inspire or provoke imagery of a dynamic transformation. The Horizon Council Task Force has created the Develop North Fort Myers logo along with the website, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Instagram sites. When the new Study Area's name is chosen, these existing branding efforts could be revised to accommodate the new name and develop a “sense of place” for the Study Area.
Revitalization Scenario: Level Three – Proactive Transformation (Long‐Term) It can be assumed that while the two preceding program steps are being implemented, private sector real estate activity will be ongoing and independent of public revitalization efforts. The following recommendations must be considered as guidelines only, and that some flexibility in their implementation may be necessary.
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Strategic Recommendation #11 – Non‐Profit Development Organization As described in the Task 5 SWOT(T) section, a suggestion was made for the possible establishment of a Community Development Corporation (CDC) for the Study Area. What is a more likely potential is the creation of a Non‐Profit Development Organization (NDO). An NDO is a non‐profit association or corporation organized under State law to engage in community economic development activities. The non‐profit would enter an agreement with Lee County and the State of Florida to act as a sub‐recipient of Community Development Block Grants (CDBG). If the repayments of loans from the NDO are made directly back to the organization and the NDO retains the repayments for further use, repayments are not considered program income; subsequent loans by the NDO using those funds do not have to meet any Federal requirements. The NDO would then administer a Revolving Loan Fund (RLF) resulting from those repayments in accordance with the terms of a re‐use plan which is approved by the State. Research into other grants or programs would be an important role of the NDO as well. An NDO in the Study Area would be valuable in providing the following services: Provide micro‐loans for building improvements and infrastructure upgrade Serve as a fund‐raising organization Research available state and federal grant and funding opportunities Administer public‐private partnerships Facilitate site assemblage strategies Conduct branding, marketing and website functions By not attempting to act as a developer, the NDO would be free to serve in an advisory capacity by interfacing with Lee County and the local business community, with a narrow focus specifically on improvements for the Study Area. Successful agencies such as the Horizon Council could serve as a model for the Study Area NDO. It is also conceivable that a Business Improvement District (BID) be established which could be used to forge partnerships between the County, property owners, waterfront businesses and community organizations.
Strategic Recommendation #12 – Site Assemblage Strategies In real estate, two contiguous parcels can, in many instances, command higher value if combined. This term is known as “assemblage” and developers often seek opportunities to achieve property assemblages to reduce overall costs and increase buildable area of
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 29 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT properties. For the developer, while it would appear to be preferable to take advantage of smaller lower priced lots, the slightly higher overall acquisition price of combined parcels is acceptable over the time required to assemble individual properties. For the Study Area, beginning the process for strategic site assembly starts with a coalition of property owners working with the group described in Strategic Recommendation #2. With this collaboration in place, discussions with adjoining property owners with the Study Area can commence on ways to mutually benefit from site assemblies that will attract developer interest. DCG Corplan recommends that key properties or assemblages that are located nearest to roadway intersections with the Study Area be considered as initial candidates for redevelopment efforts. This “anchoring the corners” approach will focus on the properties with the highest visibility and likelihood for success. Once target property assemblages are identified, cooperative agreements between property owners are needed that will allow the sites to be marketed. This is similar to the real estate option process where the rights to purchase a property for a small non‐refundable down payment is given over a period of time (usually one year). DCG Corplan recommends that the NDO secure option rights to primary assemblies to guarantee that agreed prices are held and that component parcels are not individually withdrawn from the assembly. Alternatively, Memorandums of Understanding (MOU’s) can take the place of the more formal option process.
Strategic Recommendation #13 – Incentives Subject to more thorough County review, two incentive recommendations are presented below, which may be selected individually, but not simultaneously. This program will provide an incentive benefit to all participating property owners and their development partners in the Study Area. The incentives have been proven not to result in a burden to Lee County, as indicated by the ratio of economic impacts/incentive costs accompanying each site assemblage scenario. Incentive #1: Targeted Industries Property Tax Credit DCG Corplan recommends that strategic site assemblage alliances be rewarded for redevelopment in support of the targeted industries. The Targeted Industry Property Tax Credit incentive is a ten‐year property increment tax abatement post construction on a descending scale (10% per year) which begins at 90% of the tax increment in first year of occupancy and is eliminated by the tenth year.
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Incentive #2: Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit For remaining Study Area properties that do not elect to develop from the Targeted Industries list, a second incentive is suggested. The Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit is property a tax credit that rebates impact fees from property tax increase development after construction over a ten‐year period. Since impact fees cannot be waived, a separate funding source would be created that pays the impact fees for the assemblages.
Strategic Site Assemblage Scenarios In this section, DCG Corplan has presented a series of possible site assemblages. (Please refer to the tables at the end of Task 7 for more detail). In total, there are eleven parcel assemblage scenarios. Primary, secondary, and tertiary levels of recommendation by DCG Corplan are added to each scenario, where appropriate. Accompanying each of these is an Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) of direct, indirect and induced effects. The EIA measures changes in business revenue, business profits, personal wages, and/or jobs. The EIA utilizes industry standard input‐output modeling software (IMPLAN2) and a Net Present Value (NPV) calculation. The IMPLAN model is a Lee County‐based system, and evaluations of overall economic impact on the local communities presented herein are estimated by percentage of County impacts. Where incentives are considered, the EIA provides a summary comparison and overall ratio of the overall economic benefit (outcome) versus the incentive cost The eleven site assemblage scenarios presented have different outcomes and risks inherent with the scale of required investments. In all but the last study, private owners are encouraged to form equity partnerships with developers to minimize upfront expense exposure and provide lucrative long‐term opportunities for all involved. For Lee County, the provision of incentives to support these assemblages have been demonstrated as worthwhile endeavors. Even for the capital‐intensive Waterfront Park scenario, the rewards of establishing a “sense of place” for the Study Area and thereby offering a truly publicly accessible waterfront is worth the investment despite what might appear as a marginal return. In summarizing the eleven studies, the following table lists in descending order of Ratio of Economic Impact to Incentive cost to show how the range of investment reward is structured.
2 IMPLAN (IMpacts for PLANning; Version 3.1.1001.12, Minnesota Implan Group, Inc. 2013)
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Clearly, the office projects generate the highest return and are recommended as Primary or initial strategies for the Study Area’s revitalization. The Secondary group contains targeted and non‐targeted industries which could be addressed in a later period, and the Tertiary group are of less robust returns and probably should not be undertaken until other efforts prove successful. In a secondary ranking, overall incentive cost is presented to demonstrate the range of financial exposure to the County, resulting in the scenarios appearing in different order. While neither ranking approach can truly be considered as superior, it is in DCG Corplan’s opinion more important to seek higher return ratios than be overly concerned with the degree of incentive allowances. Regardless of the approach chosen, the pathway forward to the Study Area’s revitalization will depend largely on the willingness of the County, the local property owners, and stakeholders to utilize the information presented in this report as a foundation to “move the needle” and establish the catalyst for dynamic change.
Ratio of Economic Impacts/Total Costs Strategy Site Assemblage Scenario (incentives) Rank Order GovEducHC 788.7 1 PRIMARY Professional Office ‐ Lowrise 602.2 2 PRIMARY Office Flex‐Wholesale 589.3 3 PRIMARY Offices MidRise1 502.2 4 PRIMARY Offices MidRise2 496.4 5 PRIMARY Retail Center 352.7 6 SECONDARY Sports/Recreation 342.9 7 SECONDARY Condos MidRise 337.8 8 SECONDARY Restaurants 172.8 9 SECONDARY Hotel MidRise 70.8 10 TERTIARY Waterfront Park 2.2 11 TERTIARY
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TASK ONE – PROJECT KICK‐OFF
Key Findings
Site Observations by Study Team Poorly maintained vacant retail and commercial facilities in the Study Area Lack of significant brokerage or other signage signaling active business recruitment by current owners Restricted east‐west movement through the Study Area other than Pondella Road Lack of landscaping, bike paths, or pedestrian amenities along US 41 and Business 41 Limited setbacks for businesses located on Business 41 Competing retail corridor north of the Study Area (Pine Island Road) Limited public access to the Caloosahatchee River waterfront Other than the Best Western, the poor quality level of available or shuttered lodging facilities High number of mobile home residents Poor quality of housing in Cabana City Interesting tourism development around marina (Marinatown) just outside the Study Area High quality of North Star Yacht Cub high‐rises west the Study Area Lack of compelling arts or other cultural amenities which normally help to establish a “sense of place”
Lee County Considerations North Fort Myers should remain an unincorporated part of the County Use of eminent domain other than for transportation uses would not be easily accomplished Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) designation for the Study Area may be a difficult undertaking
Response from Public Active public engagement attitude
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Pent‐up frustration for revitalization action Task 1.1 – Site Tour
A tour of the project environs was provided by Lee County’s Rachel Busch and John Gardner, a local insurance agent and member of the revitalization Task force. In attendance was Bruce Hoch of DCG Corplan (prime) and Tom Hoolihan (developer). The tour was conducted on the morning of March 8, 2016.
Many areas of North Fort Myers (NFM) were presented, providing a background introduction to the variety of housing and shopping areas north of the Study Area, as well as waterfront recreational and commercial development potential in the area. One of the most important outcomes of the tour was the revelation that Walmart, as a former tenant of Hancock Bridge Plaza, only recently ended a non‐compete moratorium in existence during its occupancy but was run for the full length of its lease term even after its departure. The inability of Hancock Bridge Plaza to attract anther anchor tenant similar to Walmart may have been a compelling reason for the decline of retail activity in the Study Area. Hancock Bridge Plaza also suffers from poor storm water management and improper building maintenance.
Cabana City was also discussed and, specifically, the makeup of this largely migrant resident base and its impact on the study area economics.
Task 1.2 – Kick‐Off Meeting
The project Kick‐off meeting was held on the morning of March 9, 2016 at the Lee County offices at 2201 Second Ave., Fort Myers. In attendance were the following individuals:
Rachel Busch – Lee County (Project Manager) Glen Salyer – Lee County (Assistant County Manager) Pamela Johnson – Lee County (Visitor & Convention) Sharon Jenkins‐Owens – Lee County (Planning) David Loveland – Lee County (Community Development) Betsy Clayton – Lee County (Communications) Richard Wesch – Lee County (Legal) Robert Clemens – Lee County (County Lands) Helena McMullen – Lee County (GIS) Randy Cerchie – Lee County (Transportation)
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Pamela Keyes – Lee County (Utilities) Bruce Hoch – DCG Corplan Consulting (Prime) Norman Taylor – Norman E. Taylor & Assoc. (Subcontractor) John Dolan‐Heitlinger – D‐H & Assoc. Consulting (Subcontractor)
Agenda 1. Call to order 2. History/Importance of Study 3. Introduction of Consultants/Experience 4. Work Plan 5. Sign Up to be Interviewed 6. Adjourn
General Discussion Topics What has gone wrong Hancock Bridge Plaza – history of ownership and lack of communication with owners Utility infrastructure – undersized for NFM Traffic patterns affecting retail access Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) – discussions of past use within the County Tax Increment Financing (TIF) – useful on a parcel‐specific basis only IDA funding – questionable for retail use Cabana City – how many people actually live there? Horizon Council – business think tank (useful resource for this study) Town of North Fort Myers – NFM should remain as unincorporated part of Lee County, not become a separate municipality Sports development – possible use for the Study Area FDOT controls US 41 and Business 41 South Florida Water Management – Caloosahatchee & Okeechobee water quality issues Lee County Planning Division to supply team with Census data Lee County Tourism to supply team with hotel data Suggested contact: Peter Winton (Lee County Finance) Suggested Developer List: Stock; Neal Communities; Ronto Group; D.R. Horton; Benderson
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Eminent Domain – this is a very difficult undertaking for private use; only successful for new roads Background studies – folder from Planning Division delivered to team for review
Next Steps Email distribution setup for review committee Dropbox setup for data repository
Task 1.3 – Public Presentation
A public meeting, facilitated by Rachel Busch, was held the evening of March 9, 2016 at the Lee County building located at 2201 Second Street, Fort Myers, FL 33901. Introduction was made by County Commissioner Brian Hamman. Panel Team makeup: Bruce Hoch, Norman Taylor, and John Dolan‐Heitlinger. The meeting gave the public the opportunity to express their opinions about the Study Area and to inquire as to the process of the study.
A series of questions were presented and answered, and a generally favorable response by the public was received. Side discussions after the meeting proved to be the most fruitful. Among these were:
“Zolly” Silver of Silver & Silver is the main contact for information about Cabana City (www.cheaprentinc.com) Lynn LaFlamme is the property manager contact for Hancock Bridge Plaza ([email protected]) The Sewing Boutique store in NFM is a 3,000 sf shop with about $1.2 million annual gross sales ($400 per sf) ‐‐ this helps to define the retail sales expectation for the Study Area A soccer team based in Cape Coral is looking for a new site to build a stadium – 10 to 20 acres is being considered and a NFM location would suit them Best Western Hotel would like to be more proactive in attracting more business to the area
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TASK TWO – CONDUCT BUSINESS & STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEWS Key Findings
Business Interviews Developers Eight real estate development companies in the Lee County, Collier, and Charlotte County area were contacted for interviews Five development firms agreed to be interviewed, and three declined due to any lack of interest in the North Fort Myers Study Area Given the demographics and physical deterioration of the housing stock and retail space in the Study Area, the interviewed developers did not seem enthusiastic about becoming involved in a development in the Study Area One firm commented that mixed‐use development projects are becoming more complex than single‐use projects and the difficulty in getting the retail side to join in is more effort than accomplishing the residential development There was a consensus that redeveloping the Study Area may require incentive, tax abatements, zoning changes, or other governmental action to make commercial and housing development in the area more attractive and that increasing the amount of higher‐end housing in and adjacent to the Study Area would be a critical part of revitalizing the market Most of the respondents indicated that they would be open to at least reviewing a prospectus or report on the North Fort Myers Study Area, but also indicated that they would want to analyze such a report before committing to a site tour or further discussions Land Use Attorneys Seven attorneys were contacted resulting in four successful interviews. The respondents agreed that revitalization of the Study Area will require a means of financing or taxation relief that will be palatable to the development community while not impacting the sensitive political nature of this unincorporated part of Lee County. One indicated the need for special regulations in NFM, for example, allowing 10% public space. A suggestion was made for a change in the schedule of uses and to grant special exceptions where needed.
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Currently, the process for obtaining special exceptions is a major expense and time investment for developers. Noted that this process involves hearing examiners. Lee County land‐use codes should be addressed. A respondent indicated that he would advise County to loosen leashes on NFM; and provide infrastructure; increase height and density limitations; provide trolleys for people on the south side of the River and seaside; adopt new urbanism for a village concept. Another cited great potential around Perkins Restaurant. An interviewee commented on positive‐enticement of high density projects to the advantage of developers, and ultimately residents; that the County should continue to review and revise their zoning laws to make higher density development possible in NFM; and, to make efforts to eliminate so many vacant properties in NFM. All respondents agreed for potential of an investment prospectus for their clients. One attorney said that if high‐rise developers could see more reasonably‐priced land in NFM, an investment prospectus would have value to clients.
Brokers, Business Owners, and Public Stakeholders A diverse group of stakeholders were contacted and casually interviewed by telephone or email. Wide‐ranging comments included: Housing development costs at $200 ‐ $250 are about at their highest range in Lee County. In 2016, the average Lee County home sold for nearly $280,000 and covered 1,711 square feet. Average sale costs per square foot was $164 which represents a 5% increase over 2015. Home prices in the recently completed section of Moody River have topped $200,000. Currently, market prices in North Fort Myers seem to be softening. An interview felt that some recent projects in Lee County have received significant financial assistance such as Tax Increment Financing (TIF), which he felt were being phased out in Fort Myers and Lee County due to over use but developers are still expecting their application. Incentives such as tax credit and tax‐freezing tools have been successful in mixed‐use developments. Other comment included:
Public use of trolleys and buses seems to have increasing demand, but extension to other modes such as water taxi may not be as well received. Providing opportunities to increase development density and/or height may be the impetus that developers would want in NFM.
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Higher‐income residents feel that there is lack of supportive retail and restaurants in NFM to meet their needs, requiring travel into the City of Fort Myers. Other communities such as North Port and Punta Gorda along US 41 have a growing number of chain retail establishments. The City of Fort Myers recognizes the need to expand the traditional downtown Fort Myers into the central area of the City to incorporate more office space and develop mixed‐use midrise buildings. More performing and exhibition arts in the downtown area is needed as a means of revitalization, as other Florida cities have successfully done. The model is adaptable to NFM as well. The waterfront between the two Rt. 41's needs to be developed as a gateway project for the Study Area. This is what the potential homeowners first look at when coming from the airport.
Public Survey The goal of this element was the gathering of market intelligence about the North Fort Myers Region from the public by means of an online survey. A commercially available web‐based survey firm, Surveymonkey.com, was contracted to host the survey. The survey contained ten (10) questions with single‐, multiple‐answer choices, or open‐ended essay types. Questions were centered on the following topics:
General Information Location Information Recommendations
Survey was available from March 24, 2016 until April 30, 2016, resulting in 519 responses. The enthusiastic response rate may be indicative of the awareness of economic conditions in the area. Overwhelmingly, the physical conditions and vacancies of the existing building stock was mentioned. Retail amenities sought included higher‐end and a greater variety shopping choices. Leading contenders include department stores (61%), clothing stores (53%) and specialty food stores (51%). Other options were grocery/chains and specialty shops/boutiques. Often, the need for casual dining restaurants was cited. Business services sought focused mainly on healthcare, personal care, pet services, and professional/technical business support. Fitness, recreation, and entertainment opportunities were also prevalent in the responses.
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On the topic of transportation, jitney or trolley connection to downtown Fort Myers were chosen in nearly 2/3rd’s of the responses, but ferry or water taxi was also a popular choice. Pedestrian walkways and bike paths along the bridges were clearly desired options as well. In more than 80% of responses, the desire to connect with the riverfront was a central point. Restaurants, bars, dock & dine facilities, a public esplanade, and marina/boat launch were all highly focused points. Waterfront entertainment options were frequently mentioned. Automobile travelers appeared to choose US 41 as their primary means of traversing the area (52%), with only about one in eight responders opting to drive Business 41 as their primary route. More than two‐ thirds of respondents felt that a new approach other than just retail was needed to revive the Study Area. A mix of Entertainment/retail/food services was the frequent recommendation. Other unique suggestions included: Amphitheater/park/open space Arcade/ indoor go‐cart racing Business/tech/educational services Family recreation Governmental offices/library Indoor/outdoor water park Movie theater Religious/institutional Running/cycling facilities Youth clubs/scouting
In regards to housing, the most often‐cited need was for medium‐priced single family, followed by affordable multi‐family, luxury single‐family, high‐rise condominium, and, finally, vacation rental. But generally, there was consensus for the need for more mixed income / mixed housing types.
In a final question, the suggestion was placed for a new business center to be constructed in the Study Area intended as an intercept location for the large commuting workforce from Cape Coral into Fort Myers via local streets and US 41. In a strong 65% response rate, responders agreed that a new corporate office presence would potentially reduce personal commuting time or those of employees.
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Task 2.1 – Business Interviews
Between mid‐March and mid‐June 2016 telephone interviews were conducted with members of the Fort Myers business and development community. This exercise was not intended as a statistical event but rather as a fact‐finding investigation that would shed light on the revitalization of the North Fort Myers Study Area. Real Estate Developers
There were eight companies contacted resulting in five successful interviews and nonresponses from the other three companies despite repeated attempts to telephone and email the potential interviewee. The nonresponse can reasonably be assumed to be lack of interest in a potential project in the North Fort Myers Study Area. These are the companies contacted: 1. Benderson Development Company – Local focus is on strip centers 2. Cammerata Companies – Full‐service real estate development company 3. Carney Properties – Focused on selling homes and investment properties 4. Neal Communities – Focused on high‐end, single‐family homes 5. Private Equity Group – Directs equity investments into real estate development 6. Ronto Group – Focused on high‐rises, single‐family homes, and shopping plazas 7. Stock Development Group – Focused on high‐end, single‐family homes 8. D. R. Horton – Focused on developing livable and affordable new homes 9. Flaherty Collins – Mixed use development firm from Indiana
The following information was provided to each interviewee that responded explaining why they were contacted and that their responses would be kept confidential as in not attributed to a particular developer: North Fort Myers is a large community located in Lee County, Florida. The primary Study Area for the assessment extends from the Caloosahatchee River to Pondella Road and includes the lands between US41 and Business 41 as well as the areas immediately adjacent to US41 and Business 41. While historically a bedroom community for the more urban City of Fort Myers, North Fort Myers today is a place with notable challenges. Several retail facilities have closed along the N. Cleveland Ave. corridor and the Study Area for this assessment
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appears to be incapable of competing against the more northerly and established Bay Shore Road retail corridor with its direct interchange connection to I‐75. Listed below are the seven questions asked of each interviewee and an amalgamation of their responses. 1. What type of projects does your company develop? Most of the companies interviewed indicated that their primary focus is on middle to higher‐end single home development One of the firms has been most recently focused on strip centers and one includes high‐rises in its development portfolio 2 Do you presently have any projects or planned projects in the Fort Myers – Cape Coral area? Most of the companies interviewed indicated that they did have or have had projects in the Fort Myers / Cape Coral area One indicated that they were not working in the area currently because the market is too soft 3. What is your familiarity with North Fort Myers? If any, please describe? All of the companies interviewed indicated that they had at least a cursory knowledge of the North Fort Myers area and specifically the Study Area Their comments about the Study Area were that they were either not interested in a project there or at least understood why it would be very difficult to redevelop the Study Area Those reasons include the closed retail spaces and deteriorated housing There was a consensus that the lack of upscale residents is a significant obstacle to redevelopment in the Study Area. One commented that substantial redevelopment might require the use of eminent domain and he did not feel that it was likely that the government would be interested in pursuing that option. 4. Have you ever worked with a County government before in a public/private development project? If so, where, and what were your experiences? Each of the companies responding indicated that they either had experience working with a County government in a public/private development project or would consider entering such a relationship
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Each of the companies indicated that in most of their projects close coordination with the local governments has been necessary to ensure a successful completion of the project One indicated that incentives would play a significant role in effect on developer’s interest in the Study Area Reductions in utility capacity fee relief and road/school/fire/etc. impact fees were specifically mentioned 5. Do you have any mixed‐use development experience? Please describe. Most of the companies responding indicated that they had experience in mixed‐ use development and the one that did not but that one indicated they would be open to participating in a mixed‐use development project Their comments included that mixed‐use development projects are more complex than single‐use projects and the difficulty in getting the retail side to join in is more effort than accomplishing the residential development One company indicated that the effects of the Internet on bricks and mortar shopping facilities is contributing to the reticence of retailers to commit to additional physical outlets
6. Do you have any sport/recreation/cultural development experience? Please describe. Most of the respondents indicated that they did not have experience in sport/recreation/cultural development and some did have such experience.
7. If we provide you with an investment prospectus illustrating unmet market potential for the North Fort Myers study area, would you be interested in a site tour and possibly further discussions? If yes, are there specific informational topics of interest to you? Most of the respondents indicated that they would be open to at least reviewing a prospectus or report on the North Fort Myers study area They also indicated that they would want to review such a report before committing to a site tour or further discussions
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Land Use Attorneys
Between mid‐March and mid‐April 2016 telephone interviews were conducted with local land use attorneys. There were seven attorneys resulting in four successful interviews. Like the developer interview process, background information was provided to each interviewee that responded explaining why they were contacted and that their responses would be kept confidential as in not attributed to a particular attorney. Listed below are the seven questions asked of each interviewee and an amalgamation of their responses.
What type of projects does your firm represent? Most firms had municipal representation histories, with experience in all facets of zoning and land use law One firm specializes in marinas, multi‐family development projects, hospitality industry projects
1. Do you presently have any projects or planned projects in the Fort Myers – Cape Coral area? Respondents were mixed in current local work load One mentioned working on several high‐rise residential projects Another attorney suggested that southwest Florida region may be approaching a slow‐down in development. Associated problems observed in the region include loss of skilled tradesmen in the construction industry.
2. What is your familiarity with North Fort Myers? If any, please describe All respondents were familiar with the area and its problems One described North Fort Myers as an untapped market for future development Another described NFM as a Class C shopping area with marginal businesses Several agreed that government must do more to revitalize NFM One mentioned that incentives, i.e., density bonuses, were needed to spur development and redevelopment
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3. Have you ever facilitated or assisted a County government or private investor before in a public/private development project? If so, where, and what were your experiences? All respondents had public/private development experience Only one with limited direct NFM involvement on a consultancy basis only
4. Do you have any mixed‐use development representation experience? Please describe. All respondents had mixed use development experience One mentioned that the current pattern of mixed use development seems to flow north from Collier County, but moves slower as development travels north Another indicated that mixed‐use development is very common in general development plans
5. Do you have any sport/recreation/cultural development representation experience? Please describe. All had some degree of expertise in recreation experience Baseball park development representation is the most common among the respondents One cautioned that there needs to be a good reason to develop a sports venue in North Fort Myers given more recent development, and area experience with sports venues A reference was made to the City of Fort Myers baseball stadium project at a cost of $80 million. It is currently used by a small college, which was not the original plan
6. If we provide you with an investment prospectus for a potential client illustrating unmet market potential for the North Fort Myers study area, would you be interested in reviewing the material with your client? If yes, are there specific informational topics of interest to you or your client? All respondents agreed for potential of prospectus One indicated the need for special regulations in NFM, for example, allowing 10% public space Change schedule of uses and grant special exceptions where needed. Currently, the process for obtaining special exceptions is a major expense and time investment for developers. Noted that this process involves hearing examiners.
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Another said that if high‐rise developers could see more reasonably‐priced land in NFM, an investment prospectus would have value to clients Lee County land‐use codes should be addressed. Would advise County to loosen leashes on NFM; and provide infrastructure; increase height and density limitations; provide trolleys for people on the south side of the River and seaside; adopt new urbanism for a village concept. Another cited great potential around Perkins Restaurant An interviewee commented on positive‐enticement of high density projects to the advantage of developers, and ultimately residents. County should continue to review and revise their zoning laws to make higher density development possible in NFM. Make efforts to eliminate so many vacant properties in the Study Area.
Brokers, Business Owners, and Stakeholders
Sixty other public official and private business persons “stakeholders” were contacted by telephone or emailing. Unlike the developer and attorney process, discussions with these individuals was more free‐flowing. Four key question were presented: 1. Why has the Study Area deteriorated? 2. What have been the obstacles for new development in the Study Area? 3. What are some of the reasons why businesses fail in the Study Area? 4. What in your opinion are the strengths/opportunities in the Study Area? Some of the more important comments made are as follows: Seasonal residents can account for nearly 18% of population figures Housing development costs at $200 ‐ $250 are about at their highest range in Lee County. Conversely, Miami can command costs as high as $800 per square foot. In 2016, the average Lee County home sold for nearly $280,000 and covered 1,711 square feet. Average sale costs per square foot was $164 which represents a 5% increase over 2015. Home prices in the recently completed section of Moody River have topped $200,000 Currently, market prices in North Fort Myers seem to be softening Recent projects in Lee County have received as much as 85% givebacks such as Tax Increment Financing (TIF)
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TIF subsidies are being phased out in Fort Myers and Lee County due to over use but developers are still expecting their application Incentives such as tax credit and tax‐freezing tools have been successful in mixed‐use developments Public use of trolleys and buses seems to have increasing demand, but extension to other modes such as water taxi may not be as well received Providing opportunities to increase development density and/or height may be the impetus that developers would want in NFM Higher‐income residents feel that there is lack of supportive retail and restaurants in NFM to meet their needs, requiring travel into the City of Fort Myers Other communities such as North Port and Punta Gorda along US 41 have a growing number of chain retail establishments The land between the two Rt. 41's needs to be developed before the rest of the Study Area can improve. This is the "front door" entrance to the NFM. This is what the potential homeowners look at when coming from our airport. High end stores would prosper here. Customers would easily head 25 miles north to shop where there is less traffic congestion. The City of Fort Myers recognizes the need to expand the traditional downtown Fort Myers into the central area of the City to incorporate more office space and develop mixed‐use midrise buildings The City of Fort Myers needs to have more performing and exhibition arts in the downtown area as a means of revitalization, as other Florida cities have successfully done
Summary ‐ Business Interviews
Developers The firms responding to the request for information about their capabilities and their potential interest in the North Fort Myers Study Area made it clear that there are firms capable of developing improved housing and retail space in the Study Area. Not surprisingly, given the demographics and physical deterioration of the housing stock and retail space in the Study Area, the interviewees did not seem enthusiastic about becoming involved in a development in the Study Area. One firm commented that mixed‐use development projects are becoming more complex than single‐use projects and the difficulty
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 47 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT in getting the retail side to join in is more effort than accomplishing the residential development. There was a consensus that redeveloping the Study Area will likely require governmental action to make commercial and housing development in the area more attractive and that increasing the amount of higher‐end housing in and adjacent to the Study Area would be a critical part of revitalizing the market. Attorneys Attorneys practicing real estate law are often the best sources of information on market performance. Collective recommendations for governmental intervention in the Study Area should not be overlooked. A serious consideration toward innovative land use policy should be viewed as the outcome of this outreach exercise. Revitalization of the Study Area will require a means of financing or taxation relief that will be palatable to the development community while not impacting the sensitive political nature of this unincorporated part of Lee County. Brokers, Business Owners and Stakeholders Probably the single most important takeaway from this diverse group was the pent‐up enthusiasm to develop a realistic and achievable action plan to revitalize the Study Area. The group recognized the limitations of public investment and give‐backs but also saw the need to create a mechanism to provide unique and attractive incentives to the development community to enhance their interest in the area. A recognition that the arts can be a significant revitalization catalyst is an important revelation.
Task 2.2 – Public Survey
The goal of this element was the gathering of market intelligence about the North Fort Myers Region from the public by means of an online survey. A commercially available web‐based survey firm, Surveymonkey.com, was contracted to host the survey. The survey contained ten (10) questions with single‐, multiple‐answer choices, or open‐ended essay types. Questions were centered on the following topics: General Information Location Information
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Recommendations
The Lee County Economic Development Office was instrumental in facilitating newspaper advertisements and social media outreach during the survey period. The questionnaires were available from March 24, 2016 until April 30, 2016, resulting in 519 responses. The enthusiastic response rate may be indicative of the awareness of economic conditions in the area and a corresponding involvement of civic‐minded individuals. Respondents were presented with a letter of introduction to DCG Corplan and the project, shown as follows: To Interested Lee County Residents, Lee County has commissioned a study of a portion of North Fort Myers in need of revitalization. The Study Area extends from the Caloosahatchee River to Pondella Road. It includes the lands between and immediately adjacent to US 41 and Business 41. See the image below. A team of consultants has been selected by the County to determine the type and size of new development opportunities that the Study Area can sustain. They are asking the community to participate in this process by providing recommendations and opinions that can be evaluated using realistic economic strategies. We would like your help in answering the following ten (10) questions about the North Fort Myers study area. Your responses are completely confidential and will be of great help to the consultants and Lee County in shaping the future of our community. Thank you for your participation!
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Survey Questions and Responses
General Information
#1. The Study Area of North Fort Myers does not seem to be recovering from the effects of the last Recession. Many businesses are closed, and much retail space is empty. In your opinion, what do you think is the problem? Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Retail space is old and out‐of‐date. 75.0% 379 Other (please specify) 34.5% 174 Difficult to enter the shopping plazas from the roadways. 22.4% 113 This isn't an area where I would visit or shop. 11.3% 57 answered question 505 skipped question 14
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q1 Freq’cy. Perception of abandonment/dilapidated structures/lack of retail appeal/need for facelifts 40 Poor storm water drainage / parking lot conditions at Hancock Bridge Mall 28 Low income housing & economic conditions in Study Area / crime & vagrancy perceptions 23 Lack of large retailer/food service presence/anchor tenant 22 Need for variety of shopping choices / destination shopping amenities 18 Better traffic control/improved roadway & signage design, landscaping & maintenance 15 Lack of regulation for property conditions maintenance / development guidelines 10 Competition from other areas/newer & better real estate conditions 8 Improved public transit 1 Lack of local identity 1
#2. If there were popular, more brand name or more well‐known stores in the Study Area, would you shop there? Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Yes. 88.5% 425 If No, why not? (please specify). 9.7% 49 No. 1.8% 9 answered question 506 skipped question 13
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Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: If No, why not? (please specify). – Q2 Freq’cy. Perceptions of personal safety 8 Value & variety of greater importance than brands 7 Existing saturation of retail opportunity in nearby areas 6 Lack of shopping appeal 4 Poor parking / building conditions 4 Need for better quality stores 3 Uncertain attitude 2 Difficult to access shopping areas 1 Leaving the area 1 Need for grocery retail 1 Need for shopping and transportation amenities 1
#3. What type of retail would you like to see in North Fort Myers that may not be there now? Please select from below or suggest other categories: Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Department Stores 61.3% 313 Clothing Stores 53.0% 271 Specialty Food Stores 50.9% 260 Grocery Stores 38.7% 198 General Merchandise Stores 38.4% 196 Home Furnishings Stores 38.2% 195 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 36.4% 186 Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores 36.2% 185 Electronics and Appliance Stores 32.7% 167 Book Stores and News Dealers 30.9% 158 Shoe Stores 30.9% 158 Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores 29.9% 153 Other (please specify) 29.5% 151 Health and Personal Care Stores 23.9% 122 Florists 22.7% 116 Furniture Stores 20.7% 106 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 13.7% 70 Building Material and Supplies Dealers 10.4% 53 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 9.8% 50 Used Merchandise Stores 9.4% 48 Automobile dealers 5.1% 26
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Gasoline Stations 5.1% 26 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 3.9% 20 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 1.6% 8 answered question 511 skipped question 8
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q3 Freq’cy. Casual dining restaurants 32 Grocery/chain 21 Big box retail 17 Specialty shops/boutiques 11 Destination retail amenity 10 Fast food restaurants 5 Amusement area/park 3 Department store/anchor tenant 3 Health & beauty supplies 3 Health clubs/Fitness Center/Sports Center 3 Boutique hotel/Inn 2 Gas station/convenience mart 2 Bakery 1 Boating/marina 1 Book store 1 Car wash 1 Dry Cleaners 1 Farm stores/agri‐support 1 Movie theater 1 Pharmacy/chain 1 Specialty food restaurants/food market 1 Womens' clothing 1
#4. What type of business services would you like to see in North Fort Myers that may not be there now? Please select from below or suggest other categories: Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Physicians 39.6% 178 Medical Clinics 36.0% 162 Dry‐cleaning 29.8% 134 Dentists 28.0% 126
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Hair, Nail, and Skin Care Services 27.8% 125 Veterinarians 26.7% 120 Computer Services 26.2% 118 Medical Laboratories 24.2% 109 Optometrists 23.8% 107 Pet Maintenance Services 22.0% 99 Other (please specify) 19.1% 86 Electronics and Appliance Repair 18.2% 82 Day Care Centers 17.1% 77 Credit Unions 16.4% 74 Home Health Care Services 15.1% 68 Child and Family Youth Services 14.0% 63 Lawyers 13.1% 59 Mental Health Specialists 12.0% 54 Accountants 10.9% 49 Architects 10.7% 48 Environmental Services 10.7% 48 Engineers 10.2% 46 Photographers 10.2% 46 Chiropractors 9.6% 43 Automotive Repair 9.1% 41 Securities Brokerages 8.7% 39 Tax Preparers 7.8% 35 Insurance Agencies 7.1% 32 Ambulance Services 6.7% 30 Advertising Agencies 5.8% 26 Public Relations Agencies 5.6% 25 Laundromats 4.9% 22 Funeral Services 4.2% 19 Talent Agencies 3.3% 15 answered question 450 skipped question 69
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q4 Freq’cy. Food services 14 Fitness/recreation 7 Entertainment 6 Healthcare 3 Agricultural 2
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Animal services/emergency pet hospital 2 Art gallery 2 Business services 2 Banking 1 Government offices 1 Movie theater 1 Postal services 1 Zoo/Aquarium 1
Location Information
#5. The Study Area is across the Caloosahatchee River from downtown Fort Myers. Would you like to see more connection to the Downtown? If yes, please select from the following: Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Jitney or Trolley service 62.1% 288 Ferry or Water taxi 54.7% 254 Pedestrian walkway 47.6% 221 Bike path 46.6% 216 Other (please specify) 11.2% 52 answered question 464 skipped question 55
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q5 Freq’cy. East‐West travel improvements 3 Cable car/tram 2 Dinner boat/cruise 1 Entertainment district 1 Parking garage 1 Public boat ramp 1 Riverfront plaza 1 Water taxi to outer islands 1
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#6. The Study Area is located partially along the Caloosahatchee River. Would you like to see a more direct connection to the waterfront? If yes, please select the following in terms of what you would like to see happen. Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Restaurants / bars / dock & dine 83.9% 417 Public park / esplanade 76.9% 382 Marinas / boat launch 54.3% 270 Hotels 29.8% 148 Other (please specify) 14.7% 73 Multi‐family housing 12.7% 63 Commercial fishing 12.1% 60 answered question 497 skipped question 22
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q6 Freq’cy. Waterfront retail/entertainment 8 Water quality remediation 5 Mid/high rise housing 4 Bicycle/jogging paths 3 Recreational fishing pier 3 Bathing beach 2 Single family housing 2 Trolley park & ride 2 Aquarium 1 Canoe / boat rentals 1 Cultural/Educational center 1 Dog Park 1 Mixed‐use retail and housing 1 Public boat ramp 1 River cruise boat port 1 Sportsplex/amphitheater 1
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#7. When you travel through North Fort Myers, do you normally favor one route more than another?
Response Response Answer Options Percent Count I usually travel on US 41 52.1% 262 I don't favor one route over another unless traffic is a factor 34.8% 175 I usually travel on Business 41 13.1% 66 answered question 503 skipped question 16
Recommendations
#8. In many older and underutilized shopping areas around the country, alternative uses such as entertainment, recreational, or cultural / institutional have replaced empty shopping centers. Do you think this could be a solution for the North Fort Myers Study Area? Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Maybe. But it would depend on the type of new development 38.2% 189 Yes, this is a good idea 30.3% 150 No, we really just need better shopping choices 17.4% 86 I think the following would be a good idea: 14.1% 70 answered question 495 skipped question 24
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: I think the following would be a good idea: – Q8 Freq’cy. Entertainment/retail/food services 10 Town Center development/mixed use 7 Architectural revitalization 4 Boutique/specialty high‐end retail 3 Multi‐family housing 3 Amphitheater/park/open space 2 Business/tech/educational services 2 Family recreation 2 Governmental offices/library 2 Indoor / outdoor mini‐golf 2 Movie theater 2 Outlet Mall/big box retail 2
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Arcade/ indoor go‐cart racing 1 Auto high‐end retail 1 Fishing charter business 1 Indoor/outdoor water park 1 Indoor boat storage 1 Religious/institutional 1 Running/cycling facilities 1 Senior housing 1 Youth clubs/scouting 1
#9. There doesn't seem to be many options for housing in this part of North Fort Myers. What type of housing development do you think is needed? Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Medium‐priced single‐family 49.7% 220 Affordable multi‐family 17.2% 76 Luxury single‐family 13.8% 61 High‐rise condominium 13.5% 60 Vacation rental 5.9% 26 Other (please specify) answered question 443 skipped question 76
Key Responses by Frequency of Response (Summarized by DCG Corplan)
Comment category: Other (please specify) – Q9 Freq’cy. Mixed income/ mixed housing types 17 Workforce/affordable rental 7 Town houses 4 Mixed use housing/retail 3 Affordable singly family 1 Higher income housing 1 Mid‐rise condominiums 1 Mobile home parks 1 Senior housing 1 Waterfront condominiums 1
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#10. Many people commute through the Study Area each day. If there were new commercial offices with growing companies seeking new hires located there, would you consider working or locating a business in this area of North Fort Myers? Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Yes, it would reduce my commuting time or those of my employees. 64.6% 277 Not really ‐‐ I don't see offices being built there 21.2% 91 It wouldn't be a place I would look for a job or to locate my business 14.2% 61 answered question 429 skipped question 90
Summary – Public Survey
The survey resulted in 519 responses. The ten questions had single‐, multiple‐choice and essay‐type answer options. (Refer to Appendix Tables 2.b(1)‐(10) for additional detail). General Information The four General Information questions were designed to identify public perception of the Study Area. Overwhelmingly, the physical conditions and vacancies of the existing building stock was mentioned. Retail amenities sought included higher‐end and a greater variety shopping choices. Leading contenders include department stores (61%), clothing stores (53%) and specialty food stores (51%). Other options were grocery/chains and specialty shops/boutiques. Often, the need for casual dining restaurants was cited. Business services sought focused mainly on healthcare, personal care, pet services, and professional/technical business support. Fitness, recreation, and entertainment opportunities were also prevalent in the responses. Location Information The three Location Information questions were designed to quantify transportation issues. Jitney or trolley connection to downtown Fort Myers were chosen in nearly 2/3rd’s of the responses, but ferry or water taxi was also a popular choice. Pedestrian walkways and bike paths along the bridges were clearly desired options as well. In more than 80% of responses, the desire to connect with the riverfront was a central point. Restaurants, bars, dock & dine facilities, a public esplanade, and marina/boat launch were all highly focused points. Waterfront entertainment options were frequently mentioned.
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Automobile travelers appeared to choose US 41 as their primary means of traversing the area (52%), with only about one in eight responders opting to drive Business 41 as their primary route. Recommendations The final three questions were intended to elicit specific recommendations. More than two‐ thirds of respondents felt that a new approach other than just retail was needed to revive the Study Area. A mix of Entertainment/retail/food services was the frequent recommendation. Other unique recommendations included: Amphitheater/park/open space Arcade/ indoor go‐cart racing Business/tech/educational services Family recreation Governmental offices/library Indoor/outdoor water park Movie theater Religious/institutional Running/cycling facilities Youth clubs/scouting
About housing, the most often‐cited need was for medium‐priced single family, followed by affordable multi‐family, luxury single‐family, high‐rise condominium, and, finally, vacation rental. But generally, there was consensus for the need for more mixed income / mixed housing types.
In a final question, the suggestion was placed for a new business center to be constructed in the Study Area intended as an intercept location for the large commuting workforce from Cape Coral into Fort Myers via local streets and US 41. In a strong 65% response rate, responders agreed that a new corporate office presence would potentially reduce personal commuting time or those of employees.
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TASK THREE – ASSESS MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PATTERNS OF CHANGE
Approach to the Methodology
In this Task, DCG Corplan has sought to identify the key market metrics that will influence the conclusions to be drawn in Task 7. From reliable sources such as the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and ESRI (Environment Systems Research Institute), we have structured the analysis along micro‐ and macro‐economic lines of research. For most topics, a description of a market area defined by DCG Corplan as a 20‐minute drive‐time radius from the center of the Study Area is utilized as the micro‐economic frame of reference. Against this and in most cases, we have compared both Lee County and the State of Florida as macro‐ economic benchmarks to quantify the North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA). In some evaluations, we have opted only to utilize the State of Florida as including Lee County would prove redundant. The section contains three groups of research: Defining the Market Area; Market Demography; and, Target Industries. In the Defining the Market Area section, maps and aerial imagery is presented which forms the foundation for GIS evaluations throughout the report. In the Market Demography area, we sought to uncover the Advantages and the Constraints the Market Area as compared to lee County and the State of Florida through the following topics with numerous sub‐topic studies: Population Characteristics Income, Wealth & Education Housing Labor Force & Earnings Consumer Spending In the Target Industry section, we have evaluated the NFM‐MA by the Location Quotient (LQ) methodology to identify growth industries and changes in employment. By determining growth in jobs, future business demand in all economic sectors can be calculated which eventually will translate in real estate demand, a key element in the North Fort Myers Study Area revitalization.
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Key Findings
Defining the Market Area The North Fort Myers The US Census Designated Census Place (CDP) description excludes some key population areas and is not a reliable unit of measure. North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐FM) is defined by DCG Corplan as having a 20‐ minute drive time radius polygon originating from the middle of the Study Area. Sixty US Census Tracts are covered by the 20‐minute polygon with Census data for 2010‐2014 (five years of reporting) utilized as basis of most of the data collection and analysis. 2014 population of the sixty (60) Census Tract ‐ NFM‐MA totaled 271,436 persons. For Consumer Spending analysis, only, a 15‐minute Retail Trading Area (RTA) is utilized, with data obtained from ESRI.
Market Demography Key Metrics The table below summarizes the key metric developed in this investigation. These and other detailed sub‐analyses are compared to Lee County (in most instances) and the State of Florida to develop the list of advantages and constraints identified in the next section.
NFM Market Area Population 271,436 Population annual growth rate 1.33% Median Age 44.6 yrs. Working‐Age Persons (16‐65 yrs.) 59% Male ‐Female Ratio 96.3% Racial Diversification (White /Total) 68.9% English Spoken at Home 80.3% # of Households 102,826 Households annual growth rate ‐0.3% Median Household Income $43,833 College Graduates (% of 25+ age population) 29.2% High School/GED only 33.8% Housing units ‐ Total 142,223 Housing units ‐ Occupied 102,294 Housing units ‐ Vacant 39,929
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House Value ‐ Median $119,172 House Value – Weighted Average calculated $159,550 Housing Tenure Mix – Homeowner to Renter 64%‐36% Average Rental Price ‐ Month $885 Employed Labor Force 106,194 Labor Participation Rate 55.0% Weighted Average Hourly Earnings $16.24 Estimated Retail Market Value (millions) $3,767.0 Potential Growth in Retail Market Value (millions) $314.6
The following attributes and constraints represent the leading categories where matches against both Lee County and the State of Florida occur. There are many instances where the NFM‐MA shows promise against either the County or the State individually that do not appear on this list (refer to text).
Attributes of North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) Availability of executive‐aged workers Adequate balance between males and females Adequate Percentage share of middle income earners Number of persons who have some college experience but not graduated Growing number of Associate Degrees earned Growing number of Graduate Degrees earned Growing number of all College Degrees earned Tightening in the supply of vacant housing inventory Growth in number of seasonal use homes Lower average home prices Growth in number of single home development Growth in the number of white‐collar jobs Wage savings available to prospective office employers Wage saving available to prospective blue‐collar employers
Constraints of North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) Increasing rate of aging Fewer overall numbers of working aged persons (16‐65 yrs.)
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Imbalanced racial diversification Decreasing foreign language comprehension and capability Lower household growth rate Lower median household income Lower percentage share of upper income earners Higher percentage share of high school/GED‐only educational attainment Lower percentage share of all College graduate educational attainment Slower growth rate in number of Bachelor’s Degrees earned Slower growth rate in total housing inventory Slower growth rate in occupied housing inventory Faster decline in median house value Slower growth rate of 20+ unit housing construction Slower growth rate of homeowner units (versus rental units) Faster decline in labor force size Slower growth rate in Services occupations Slower growth rate in Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance occupations Slower growth rate in Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations Higher costs of Services occupations Higher costs of Sales and Office occupations Higher costs of Healthcare occupations Higher costs of Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance occupations Lower consumer expenditures on Sporting equipment Lower attendance at Sporting events Lower attendance at Cultural events
Target Industries
Seven (7) occupational categories identified as high growth (primary) opportunities for the NFM‐MA based on available labor and projections of Lee County employment gains: o Management o Health Care Technicians o IT & Computers o Healthcare Support o Educational, Training & Library o Building & Grounds Maintenance
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o Health Care Diagnosing Four (4) occupational categories identified as moderate growth opportunities (secondary): o Life & Physical. Sciences o Legal o Community & Social Services o Material Moving Five (5) occupational categories identified as likely growth opportunities (tertiary): o Business & Financial o Construction & Extraction o Architectural & Engineering o Installation, Maintenance & Repair o Personal Care & Service Review of projected industry employment growth and location quotients result in identification of eight (8) target industry sectors for the NFM‐MA: o Educational Services o Wholesale Trade o Public Administration o Professional, Scientific & Technical Services o Health Care & Social Assistance o Management of Companies and Enterprises o Real Estate & Rental & Leasing o Accommodation & Food Services Correlation of occupational growth categories to actual industry concentration by occupation (nationally) results in ranking of recommended target industries by probable sustainability of job recruitment of NFM‐MA labor force:
1. Educational Services 2. Health Care & Social Assistance 3. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 4. Public Administration 5. Wholesale Trade 6. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 7. Management of Companies and Enterprises (HQ) 8. Accommodation & Food Services
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Task 3.1 – Defining the Market Area
The objective of this Task is the assemblage of relevant demographics that define the market for the North Fort Myers (NFM) Study Area. From initialization of data gathering process, it became immediately apparent that North Fort Myers as a Census Designated Place (CDP) would present a unique challenge. As shown in the Exhibit 3.1.1 below, the Census definition excludes the important housing areas of Suncoast Estates, Palmona Park, and Waterway Estates.
Exhibit 3.1.1 – North Fort Myers CDP
Source: ESRI ArcGis 10.4
When evaluating demographic data for Lee County, the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) is often cited as a reliable source for more accurate population estimates than the Census. The County generally defers to the BEBR for planning purposes and revenue sharing. However, BEBR only produces limited fields of data for comparative uses, whereas the Census has rich variety of data points. Accordingly, DCG Corplan has determined that Census data is the most useful source of information and most succeeding analyses is based in US Census figures. Census Block Groups and Tracts are normally used to calculate total population, for purposes of this analysis, it is vital that a systematic methodology is selected that consistently
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 65 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT affords the assigning economic data. A major goal of this exercise is to determine five‐year trends among demographic categories, and while both Block Group and Tracts offer 2014 data analysis, the American FactFinder (US Census research portal) does not provide data beyond the preceding year, and Census Tracts have five years of data availability. The Census Tract, therefore is chosen as that unit of measurement. To identify the Census Tracts that compose the market area for North Fort Myers, a common methodology utilized in economic development is the drive‐time polygon. This is a GIS‐based approach that generates complex shapes based on databases of travel times along known street networks. The following Exhibit 3.1.2 illustrates 5‐minute, 10‐minute, 15‐minute, and 20‐minute drive‐time polygons generated from a central location within the Study Area (Hancock Bridge Plaza). From US Census data, the average 2014 drive‐time to work for Lee County is 27.2 minutes. As a comparison, the North Fort Myers CDP journey to work time is 26.6 minutes. The polygons depicting 5‐, 10‐, 15‐, and 20‐minute commute times from the Study Area are shown in the following Exhibit 3.1.3 which indicates the road network. It becomes clear that a 27.2‐minute drive distance would cover significant portions of both Lee and Charlotte Counties and require extensive consideration of data points. As a more practical approach, the twenty‐minute drive polygon is selected as the basis of analysis. This as the comprise sixty (60) unique Census Tracts within Lee County, as shown in the following Exhibit 3.1.4. This group of data points will be more beneficial to providing a reasonable means of identifying the demographics characteristics of the North Fort Myers Market Area.
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Exhibit 3.1.2 – 5‐, 10‐, 15‐, and 20‐minute Drive‐Time Polygons
Sources: Lee County GIS; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
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Exhibit 3.1.3 – Drive Time Polygons & Road Network
Source: ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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Exhibit 3.1.4 – Census Tracts Overlay of 20‐Minute Drive Polygon
Source: ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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The sixty Census Tracts utilized for the following analysis are as follows. Refer to the Appendix for detail on tabular data utilized for subsequent charts and summaries:
3.01 9 15.02 102.04 105.01 203 3.02 10 16.01 103.02 105.02 204 4.01 11.01 16.02 103.03 106.01 205.01 4.02 11.02 17.01 103.04 106.02 205.02 Secondary 5.02 12.01 17.03 103.05 107.01 206 Primary 5.03 12.02 18.01 103.06 107.02 207 5.04 13 101.02 103.07 201.01 208 6 14.01 101.03 104.04 201.02 401.10 7 14.02 102.01 104.05 202.01 401.19 8 15.01 102.03 104.09 202.02 803
As highlighted from the above table, Census Tracts 205.02 and 206 comprise the Study’s Study Area. Most the Study Area is contained within Tract 206, and is referenced as the “Primary” in following analysis and the tabular data contained in the Appendix section. Although only a sliver of the Study Area overlaps into Tract 205.02, this Tract is referenced as “Secondary”. Exhibit 3.1.5 below illustrates this geographic relationship.
Exhibit 3.1.5 – North Fort Myers Study Area
Primary Tract 206
Secondary Tract 205.02
Source: ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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Task 3.2 – NFM Market Area Demography
The following tables and charts compares the NFM Market Area against Lee County and the State of Florida. The Primary and Secondary Study Area census tracts are analyzed separately at end of each topic. Population Characteristics
3.2.1 – Population Growth In 2014 population of the sixty (60) Census Tract ‐ North Fort Myers Market Area (NFM‐MA) totaled 271,436 persons and represents an increase of 12,784 persons over the 2010 Census, (0.97% annual growth rate). Most population change in the 2010‐2014 period occurred northwest of the Study Area as shown in Exhibit 3.2.1 below (refer to Appendix Table 3.2.1) For Lee County, the 2010‐2014 period witnessed a 1.33% annual growth, increasing 41,839 persons over the 2010 figure. The State of Florida, on the other hand, grew by 0.90% per year over the same 5‐year period. A straight‐line projection to yr.2020 puts the NFM‐MA population at 287,614, or an estimated growth of just over 16,000 persons from yr. 2014. For the Study Area, population change in the 2010‐2014 period was negative, with a 3.2% annual decline in the Primary tract (206) and a 0.6% annual loss in the Secondary (205.02). Summary Conclusion – Population Growth Annual growth rate for the NFM‐MA exceeds that of the State of Florida, but lags Lee County. Majority of new population growth is centered in more western areas of North Fort Myers and portions of Cape Coral.
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Exhibit 3.2.1 – Population Growth 2010‐2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014); ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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3.2.2 – Median Age The weighted average median age for the NFM‐MA in 2014 is 44.6 years. This is a 6% increase in median age over 2010 (42.1 years), indicating a somewhat rapid change in the age of the population (0.95% annually). This is likely due to an influx of retirees to the greater Fort Myers area. As shown in Chart 3.2.2(a) below, the NFM‐MA is aging faster than both Lee County (0.79%) and Florida State’s annual pattern (0.44%). (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.2).
Chart 3.2.2(a) – Median Age 2010‐2014 48.0 46.4 46.0 44.6 44.6
44.0 42.6 42.0 41.2 40.3 40.0
38.0
36.0 Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Median age Lee County Median age FL State Median Age Linear (NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Median age ) Linear (Lee County Median age) Linear (FL State Median Age) Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
Exhibit 3.2.2(1) below illustrates median age in yr. 2014 for the NFM‐MA. As shown, the Study Area is located within a zone of higher‐aged persons, but areas surrounding this core are considerably younger in character. Exhibit 3.2.2(2) below illustrates changes in median age in yr. 2010‐2014 for the NFM‐MA. As shown, the Study Area is located within a zone of moderately quickly aging persons, but Immediately surrounding this core are tracts with negative or slowly changing age characteristics.
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Exhibit 3.2.2(1) – Median Age 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
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Exhibit 3.2.2(2) – Changes in Median Age by percent 2010‐2104
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
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Median age differential within the sexes is an important indicator of economic stability. In Chart 3.2.2(b) below male median age has risen by 0.5% annually in the NFM‐MA as compared to 1.0% for Lee County and 0.5% for the State of Florida. For females, the NFM‐MA measuring a 0.9% annual rise as compared with the County at 0.8% and the State at 0.5%.
Chart 3.2.2(b) – Median Ages for Males & Females 2010‐2014 50.0 47.8 46.0 46.2 45.1 45.0 44.2 43.7 42.6 43.0 42.7 41.6 39.8 40.0 38.9
35.0 Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014
NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Median age ‐ Males NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Median age ‐ Females Lee County Median Age ‐ Males Lee County Median Age ‐ Females FL State Median Age ‐ Males FL State Median Age ‐ Females
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
For the Study Area, median age was rising by 2.5% annually in the Primary tract (206) and falling by 0.8% per year in the Secondary (205.02). Among both males and females, this trend was repeated, although at slower pace for females. Summary Conclusion ‐ Median Age In the NFM Market Area, the median age is lower than Lee County but significantly higher than the State of Florida’s. Rate of aging in the NFM Market Area is faster than either Lee County’s or the State of Florida’s. Among males, median age in the NFM‐MA is about 3% lower than Lee County and about 10% higher than the State. For females, the differential is the same for Lee County but about 8% higher than the State.
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3.2.3 – Working Ages While the US Census defines working ages from 16 years and above, most economists consider the range of 18‐44 as the bellwether for working age statistics. But, in terms of tourism and recreational activities and sales, younger and older workers and semi‐retirees must be considered to fill labor shortages and provide second job opportunities. The Working Ages range for this study, accordingly, will be the 16 to 65‐years segment of the population. Working Age individuals for the NFM‐MA by percentage of the total population is quite different than Lee County’s or the State’s mean. The NFM‐MA’s weighted average for 2010 was 79% which dipped to 78% by 2014 (a decline of 1.8%). Both Lee County and the State grew by 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. Chart 3.2.3(a) below emphasizes these relationships. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.3).
Chart 3.2.3 (a) – Working Ages 16‐64 yrs. by percent of 2010‐2014
85% 83% 83% 82% 82% 81% 81% 79% 79% 78%
77%
75% Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Working ages Lee County FL State Working ages Linear (NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Working ages) Linear (Lee County) Linear (FL State Working ages) Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
To further evaluate working age issues, a review of age cohorts is necessary. Chart 3.2.3(b) below illustrates distribution of ages for the NFM‐Market Area in yr. 2010‐2014:
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Chart 3.2.3 (b) – Age by Cohorts 2010‐2014 by percent
30% 26% 28% 22% 25% 24% 21% 25% 19% 18% 20%
15% 10% 10% 7%
5%
0% Under 16 yrs. 16 to 25 yrs 25 to 44 yrs. 45 to 65 yrs. 65 yrs.+
NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Working ages 2010 NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Working ages 2014 Lee County Working ages 2014 State of FL Working ages 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0601 (2010‐2014)
As shown above, the “middle‐aged” 45‐65 yrs. category demonstrates the largest segment for the NFM Market Area and is close to Lee County and State averages. The 16‐25 yrs. group was the smallest segment had the greatest decline (‐7.1%). The category was also correspondingly lower in share percentage than Lee County’s median and well below the State’s. However, the differential toward the next category (25 to 44yrs.) is the highest, indicating the prevalence of “thirty‐somethings” age cohort in the NFM‐MA which appears to be growing. Clearly, older workers (65+) in both Lee County and the NFM‐MA outpace State figures. Underrepresentation of the 16‐25 yrs. group indicate a lack of younger families in the area which would appear to be of greater influence elsewhere in the County and the State. For the Study Area, these indicators are of more concern. The proportion of working aged‐ persons has declined yearly by 4.1% and 2.8%, respectively, for the Primary and Secondary Census tracts. Summary Conclusion – Working Ages NFM‐MA has a lower working‐aged share of total population than Lee County and the State of Florida.
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Younger workers, including “Millennials3” are significantly under‐represented in the NFM‐MA, but some growth is evident. Middle‐aged (45‐64) worker is the largest segment and about on par with Lee County and the State of Florida. Higher representation of seniors than the State of Florida but not as high as Lee County.
3.2.4 – Gender Diversification It is generally held that women are outliving men in many instances, and the ratio of males to females should be slightly shifted toward a larger percentage of females in the population. Chart 3.2.4 below confirms this assumption, but also indicates a faster shift in population demographics with the male‐to‐female ratio declining faster in the NFM‐MA (‐.29%) as compared with Lee County (.01%) and (the State of Florida (‐.001%) annually. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.4).
Chart 3.2.4 – Male/Female Ratio by percent 2010‐2014
98.0% 97.7% 97.5%
97.0%
96.5% 96.2% 96.3% 96.2%
96.0% 95.7% 95.6% 95.5%
95.0% Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014
NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Male/Female Ratio Change Lee County Average Male/Female Ratio Change FL State Average Male/Female Ratio Change Linear (NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Male/Female Ratio Change) Linear (Lee County Average Male/Female Ratio Change) Linear (FL State Average Male/Female Ratio Change)
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S0101 (2010‐2014)
3 Millennials are persons reaching young adulthood by around the year 2000. This demographic group has surpassed “baby‐boomers” as the largest segment of the population.
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For the Study Area, changes in gender diversification are more pronounced. The annual Male/Female ratio rate of change declined by 3.5% and 0.7%, respectively, for the Primary and Secondary Census tracts. Summary Conclusion – Gender Diversity NFM‐MA has a more equal balance of male to females than Lee County or the State. Gender balance is more quickly moving to higher female share than either the County or the State.
3.2.5 – Racial Diversification Given the changes in national demographics, and especially in tourism and leisure activities, the typical American family is likely to be quite different in the coming years from previous decades. More traditional societal groups of White or African American are now giving way to Pacific Rim, Hispanic, Creole, and other ethnicities which may have unique requirements or demands on food services and accommodation. By weighted average, the NFM Market Area is 69% White as of the 2014 US Census American Factfinder estimate. This is about 2% higher than the 2010 figure of 68% which is showing a trend toward less racial diversification. Lee County follows somewhat closely at 70% ratio but which has seen a reduction of nearly 3% over the 2010 figure. The State, on the other hand, has a significantly more diverse racial make‐up, with only 57% White and ‐4% change, as shown in Chart 3.2.5(a) below. Diversification for the State has outpaced the Study Area by 6 percentage points in the past five years. Racial composition of the NFM‐MA in 2014 is shown in Chart 3.2.5(b) below. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.5). As an argument for sensitivity to suit a public of multi‐racial composition, racial diversity is considered as a sought‐after accommodation, especially in the food services, retail, recreation and lodging sectors. Increasing diversify in the traveling and resident public, whether ethnicity, gender or age all require the communities to consider their range of visitor amenities and offerings to address different requirements and interests.
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Chart 3.2.5(a) – White /Total Ratio by percent 2010‐2014 75.0% 72.0% 68.9% 69.9% 70.0% 67.8% 65.0% 59.1% 60.0% 56.6% 55.0% 50.0% Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014
NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. White/Total Ratio Lee CountyAverage White/Total Ratio FL State Average White/Total Ratio Linear (NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. White/Total Ratio) Linear (Lee CountyAverage White/Total Ratio) Linear (FL State Average White/Total Ratio)
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP05 (2010‐2014)
Chart 3.2.5(b) – Racial Composition by percent 2010‐2014
68.9% 72.0% 80.0% 67.8% 59.1% 70.0% 56.6% 60.0%
50.0% 17.6% 40.0% 15.1% 18.4% 21.6% 7.7% 1.4% 23.3% 9.8% 15.4% 1.4% 1.2% 18.9% 30.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.5% 10.7% 0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 20.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 10.0% 0.0% White Alone Black Alone %AmericanAsian Alone %Others % Hispanic % Indian Alone origin (may be % of any race) %
NFM‐MA 2010 NFM‐MA 2014 Lee County 2010 Lee County 2014 FL State 2010 FL State 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP05 (2010‐2014)
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From the above chart, the White alone % category has increased its share in the NFM‐MA by 0.3% annually as opposed to Lee County’s or the State of Florida’s 0.6% and 0.9% decline, respectively. Black alone has declined by a 1.7% rate in the NFM‐MA as compared to a rise of 1.3% for Lee County and 0.4% Statewide. American Indian has gained 12.2% locally and 14.9% but for the County but a flat change for the State. Asians grew by 4.1% in the NFM‐MA, while only 1.4% for Lee County and 0.8% for the State overall. The Others category for the NFM‐MA is 1.9% lower per year, but no changes for the County and 4.6% annual growth for the State. And Hispanics origin (any race) has shown a 0.5% annual decline as compared to a 1.5% increase for both Lee County and the State of Florida. For the Study Area, changes in racial diversity are more mixed. The White/Total ratio has declined by 0.9% annually in the Primary tract but risen by 0.5% per year in the Secondary tract. Black alone has increased in the Primary tract by 19.1% annually by fallen by 7.8% annually in the Secondary. American Indian alone % is unchanged in both areas, but Asian alone has risen 90% per year (from nearly 0%) only in the Primary tract. Others % has increased by 4.8% only in the Primary only. Hispanic origin (of any race) has fallen 1.0% and 12.9% annually in the Primary and Secondary tracts, respectively. Summary Conclusion – Racial Diversity The NFM‐MA is less racially diverse than either Lee County or the State of Florida due to a rise in White percentage share. Black growth rate is declining while rising in both the County and the State. American Indian and Asian have seen the large percentage growth in the NFM‐MA over and Lee County although the actual count in both categories are small. Others and Hispanics origins (any race) are declining in the NFM‐MA, while somewhat holding steady in Lee County and rising Statewide.
3.2.6 – Language & Origins Language competency, especially in tourism industries is becoming a considerable asset, especially in recognition of the diversity of the vacationing public and its global impact. For a corporate hotel brand, for example, a workforce that can demonstrate multi‐lingual skills would prove valuable to a world‐class resort destination. However, for most employers, English competency is a priority and an area that has at least an above state average measure of English spoken at home is a minimum location requirement. Chart 3.2.6(a) below shows
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that English Spoken at Home is on the rise in the NFM Market Area whereas this metric is falling Statewide. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.6).
Chart 3.2.6(a) – English Language Spoken at Home by percent 2014
82.0% 80.3% 80.0% 79.0% 78.4% 78.6% 78.0%
76.0%
74.0% 73.4% 72.2% 72.0%
70.0% Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA English Spoken at Home Lee County English Spoken at Home FL StateEnglish Spoken at Home Linear (NFM‐MA English Spoken at Home) Linear (Lee County English Spoken at Home) Linear (FL StateEnglish Spoken at Home )
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1601 (2010‐2014)
Chart 3.2.6(b) below indicates that the NFM‐MA is overwhelmingly a one‐language environment and continuing to accelerate. As opposed to Lee County and State averages, all other language categories in the NFM‐MA are falling in growth. However, there may be some opportunities to recruit and develop other language resources from the base population, at least to approach County and State trends. Table 3.2.6(1) immediately following Chart 3.2.6(b) further clarifies the graphic. The table indicates that English Spoken at Home has risen by 0.5% annually in the NFM‐Market Area as opposed to the County’s and State’s decline of 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Non‐English language variations are evident by this comparison.
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Chart 3.2.6(b) – Language Spoken at Home by percent 2014
78.4% NFM‐MA Language Spoken at Home 2010 80.3% 90.0% 79.0% 78.6% NFM‐MA Language Spoken at Home 2014 Lee County Language Spoken at Home 2010 80.0% 73.4% Lee County Language Spoken at Home 2014 70.0% 72.2% FL State Language Spoken at Home 2010
60.0% FL State Language Spoken at Home 2014
50.0% 16.1% 14.7% 40.0% 15.2% 4.3% 15.7% 4.1% 30.0% 19.6% 0.8% 4.6% 0.4% 20.5% 0.7% 20.0% 4.6% 0.3% 0.9% 5.1% 0.3% 10.0% 0.9% 5.2% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% % English Only Spoken at % Spanish home % Other Indo‐ European % Asian & Pacific Island % Other
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1601 (2010‐2014)
Table 3.2.6(1) – Language Spoken at Home by annual change in percent 2014 % English Only % Other % Asian & Spoken at Indo‐ Pacific home % Spanish European Island % Other NFM‐MA Language Spoken at Home 2010‐14 0.5% ‐1.9% ‐1.2% ‐0.9% ‐5.8% Lee County Language Spoken at Home 2010‐14 ‐0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% FL State Language Spoken at Home 2010‐14 ‐0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% 3.7% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1601 (2010‐2014)
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For the Study Area, there are significant differences. For the Primary tract, English Spoken at Home has fallen by a 1.1% annually but risen by 0.1% in the Secondary. Spanish is up 1.8% in the Primary but off by 14.1% annually in the Secondary tract. Other Indo‐European languages had a dramatic 14.9% annual increase in the Primary tract but flat in the Secondary. And, Asian and Others are negligible in both cases. Summary Conclusion – Language & Origins English spoken at Home predominant and rising in the NFM‐MA than compared to the County or the State which have seen decreases. There are some opportunities to recruit and develop other language resources from the base population, at least to approach State averages.
3.2.7 – Households
Households are invariably linked to population statistics but often with different growth rates. For 2014, the NFM‐MA contained 102,826 households, declining by 1,617 (‐0.3% annually) over the 2010 figure. Despite strong population gains, Lee County had negligible growth in the number of households (0.03% per year). The State of Florida, on the other hand, exhibited somewhat stronger growth, with a modest 0.2 % gain annually. Twenty‐one of the sixty Census tracts gained in the number of households (3,997) and thirty‐nine lost in number (‐5,614). However, household size is increasing. As shown in the Chart 3.2.7 below, Year 2010‐2014 figures indicate a rapid 7% growth in the size of households in the NFM‐MA which is nearly double the State’s rate of 4%. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.7). For the Study Area, there were decreases in the numbers of households in both the Primary (‐4.6% annually) and the Secondary (‐1.3% annually) tracts. Household size is falling by 1.9% per year in the Primary area but growing by 4.1% in the Secondary.
Summary Conclusion – Households Household formation in the NFM‐MA is declining, despite population increases. Household size in the NFM‐MA is slightly ahead of Lee County but smaller than State average. NFM‐MA and Lee County’s household size rates of increase are both faster than the State.
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Chart 3.2.7 – Household Size by percent 2014 2.70 2.68 2.64 2.65 2.63 2.59 2.60
2.55
2.50 2.48 2.47 2.45
2.40 Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014
NFM‐MA Persons/household Lee County Persons/household FL State Persons/household Linear (NFM‐MA Persons/household) Linear (Lee County Persons/household) Linear (FL State Persons/household)
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP03 (2010‐2014)
Income, Wealth & Education
3.2.8 – Income
Household income changes are good indicators of the relative prosperity of a region. In 2014, $43,833 was the Median Household income for the NFM Market Area. This figure was down by 2.3% annually over the $49,302 yr. 2010 figure (after adjustment for inflation). The loss is less than Lee County which saw a 2.5% annual loss in the 5‐yr. period. For the State of Florida, the decline was 1.8% per year over the same period. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the effects of inflation for the 2010‐2014 period as 1.66% per year. Chart 3.2.8 below ranks changes in median household income from 2010‐2014. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.8). For the Study Area, decrease in median household income in the Primary tract was 6.5% annually while loss in the Secondary tracts was 2.2% annually.
Summary Conclusion – Income Lower household median income in NFM‐MA than Lee County or the State.
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NFM‐MA has slower decline in median household than Lee County but more rapid than the State.
Chart 3.2.8 – Median Household Income in 2014 dollars
$56,000 $54,299 $54,000 $51,744 $52,000 $50,000 $49,302 $47,908 $48,000 $47,212 $46,000 $43,833 $44,000 $42,000 $40,000 Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Median Household Income Lee County Median Household Income FL State Median Household Income Linear (NFM‐MA Median Household Income) Linear (Lee County Median Household Income) Linear (FL State Median Household Income)
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1901 (2010‐2014)
3.2.9 – Wealth Household Income distribution within the NFM Market Area is varied. In Chart 3.2.9, income distribution cohorts are shown. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.9). The chart illustrates that the least income bracket (under $10K) is more prevalent in the NFM‐ MA as compared to Lee County, but less than the State’s figure. In both incomes sectors below $25K, a rise in share is noted for the NFM‐MA and is mirrored by Lee County although at slightly lower levels, but the State is witnessing only moderate change. Middle‐income levels between $25K to $50K are markedly more common in the NFM‐MA then either the County or the State. Middle‐Upper Incomes of $50K‐$100K are about on par with Lee County and Florida, but the higher categories are markedly below County and State distribution and showing no real patterns of change. In the Table 3.2.9(1) following the chart, changes in the 2010‐2104 period are noted for the household income cohorts.
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Chart 3.2.9 – Income Distribution by percent 2010‐2014 120.0%
2.0% 2.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% 100.0% 10.5% 10.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 14.4% 80.0% 31.0% 29.1% 32.1% 30.1% 30.4% 29.2% 60.0%
30.2% 40.0% 30.9% 26.8% 28.3% 28.3% 27.4%
20.0% 20.5% 17.8% 18.8% 15.9% 17.2% 17.4% 6.8% 7.8% 6.6% 7.3% 7.8% 0.0% 5.8% NFM‐MA2010 NFM‐MA 2014 Lee County 2010 Lee County 2014 FL State 2010 FL State . 2014 Less than $10K $10K‐$24.999 $25K‐$49.999K $50K‐$99.999K $100K ‐ $199.99K $200 K+ Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1901 (2010‐2014)
Table 3.2.9(1) – Income Distribution by percent 2010‐2014 Less than $10K‐ $25K‐ $50K‐ $100K ‐ $10K $24.999 $49.999K $99.999K $199.99K $200 K+ NFM‐MA 2010 6.8% 18.8% 30.9% 31.0% 10.5% 2.0% NFM‐MA 2014 7.8% 20.5% 30.2% 29.1% 10.4% 2.1% NFM‐MA. 2010‐2014 Annual Change 2.5% 1.7% ‐0.5% ‐1.3% ‐0.2% 1.5% Lee County 2010 5.8% 15.9% 28.3% 32.1% 13.8% 4.1% Lee County 2014 6.6% 17.2% 28.3% 30.1% 13.8% 4.0% Lee County 2010‐2014 Annual Change 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% ‐1.3% 0.0% ‐0.5% FL State 2010 7.3% 17.4% 27.4% 30.4% 13.9% 3.6% FL State 2014 7.8% 17.8% 26.8% 29.2% 14.4% 4.0% FL State 2010‐2014 Annual Change 1.3% 0.5% ‐0.4% ‐0.8% 0.7% 2.1% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S1901 (2010‐2014)
For the Study Area, there were strong share gains in the two lower‐middle income cohorts for the Primary tract (11.7% annually) and declines in all other categories. In the Secondary, changes were mixed, with notable loss in the highest income segment (‐3.6% annually).
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Summary Conclusion – Wealth Distribution Lowest income bracket (under $10K) is higher than Lee County, but less than the State of Florida. Lower Middle income cohort ($10K‐$25K) exceeds County and State averages in share and rate of change. Middle income cohort ($25K‐$50K) exceed County and State share averages but are slightly declining in rate of change. Upper‐middle cohort ($50‐$100K) are slightly less than Lee County but about same as State in share but losing ground in rate of change. Upper income cohorts (+$100K) are smaller in share and growing faster than Lee County by slower in rate of change as compared to the State.
3.2.10 – Educational Attainment
Educational attainment in the NFM Market Area is showing signs of improvement, but still needs better performance. In the Number of All College Graduates category, the 2014 NFM‐ MA share was 29.2%, as compared to 33.7% and 35.9% for Lee County and the State of Florida, respectively. As shown in Chart 3.2.10 and Table 3.2.10(1), the High School/GED only and the Some College only categories are shrinking in the NFM‐MA (‐0.3% and ‐0.4% annually, respectively), indicating the desire of area graduates to achieve a higher level of education. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.10). This is borne out by the annual Associates Certificate rise (2.2%), which is higher than either the County or the State. NFM‐MA exceeds Lee County in reduction of High school only, but lags behind the State. Bachelor degree growth for the NFM‐MA is flat but a higher Graduate degree change locally faster than the County or Florida may signal the influx of higher wage earners to the area. In general, rate of change in All College Grads for the NFM‐MA exceeds both Lee County and the State. For the Study Area, the Primary tract’s annual growth in Bachelors (25.8%), Graduate (18.5%) and College Grads (8.9%) categories indicate superior performance in educational attainment. The Secondary tract, however, shows a mixed outcome, with significantly lower annual growth in Associates (7.0%), Bachelors (3.5%) and College Grads (2.0%).
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Summary Conclusion – Educational Attainment High school/GED only category is significantly higher than Lee County or State average, but improving. Some College‐only (no graduation) is slightly higher than County or State. Associate, Bachelors, and Graduates categories for the NFM‐MA lag both the County and the State. Growth in share of Associate’s and Graduate’s degree categories, as well as All College Grads indicate positive changes in attainment levels for the NFM‐MA.
Chart 3.2.10 – Changes in Educational Attainment by percent 2010‐2014 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% ‐0.5% ‐0.3% ‐1.0% ‐0.4% ‐0.4% ‐0.1% ‐1.5% ‐1.1% % High Schoool % Some % Assoc. % Bachelors % Graduate % All College or GED College no degree degree. degree Grads degree
NFM‐MA Annual Change Lee County Annual Change State FL Annual Change
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP02 (2010‐2014)
Table 3.2.10(1) – Changes in Educational Attainment by percent 2010‐2014 % High % Some % % % % All School or College no Assoc. Bachelor Graduate College GED degree degree degree. degree(s) Grads NFM‐MA Annual Change ‐0.3% ‐0.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.3% 1.2% Lee County Annual Change ‐0.1% ‐1.1% 2.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% State FL Annual Change ‐0.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP02 (2010‐2014)
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Housing
3.2.11 – Housing Units/Vacancy/Seasonal Use Housing
In 2014, the NFM Market Area contained 142,223 housing units. Of these, 102,294 were occupied (71.9%) and 39,929 were vacant (28.1%). Twenty Census tracts within the NFM‐MA witnessed inventory growth (4,226 units) while forty tracts saw decline (‐4.928 units). As shown in Table 3.2.11(1) below, total inventory over the 2010‐2014 period in the NFM‐MA fell by 702 units (‐0.1% annually). Both Lee County and the State witnessed a different pattern by increasing inventory by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.11).
Table 3.2.11(1) – Change in Total, Occupied and Vacant housing units 2010‐2014 Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 # Change % 2010‐ Annual Count % Count % 2014 Change NFM ‐MA Total housing inventory 142,925 100.0 142,223 100.0 ‐702 ‐0.1% NFM‐MA Occupied housing units 104,443 73.1 102,826 72.3 ‐1,617 ‐0.3% NFM‐MA Vacant housing units 38,482 26.9 39,397 27.7 915 0.5% Lee County Total housing inventory 363,892 100.0 372,769 100.0 8,877 0.5% Lee County Occupied housing units 245,751 67.5 246,061 66.0 310 0.0% Lee County Vacant housing units 118,441 32.5 126,708 34.0 8,267 1.4% FL State Total housing inventory 8,863,057 100.0 9,051,851 100.0 188,794 0.4% FL State Occupied housing units 7,152,844 80.7 7,217,508 79.7 64,664 0.2% FL State Vacant housing units 1,710,213 19.3 1,834,343 20.3 124,130 1.4% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014); Table 25004 (2010‐2014)
Contributing factors in the vacancy count are: Units for rent; Rented but unoccupied; For sale; Sold but not occupied; Migrant workers use; Other vacant; and, Seasonal /recreational /occasional use. This last category represents the second home group which is very prevalent in Florida. In 2014 there were 20,686 seasonal use (second homes) in the NFM Market Area, which represents a 42% increase in this category over 2010 (14,607 units). As illustrated in Chart 3.2.11 below, the NFM‐MA ratio of seasonal use (second home) units to total inventory
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has risen by 7.3% annually since 2010, nearly twice that for Lee County and almost three times the rate for the State over the same period.
Chart 3.2.11 – Seasonal Use/Total Housing Units by percent 2010‐2014
25.0% 22.5%
20.0% 18.0%
14.5% 15.0%
10.2% 9.8% 10.0% 8.7%
5.0%
0.0% Yr. 2010 Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Seasonal/Total Housing % Lee County Seasonal/Total Housing % FL State Seasonal/Total Housing % Linear (NFM‐MA Seasonal/Total Housing % ) Linear (Lee County Seasonal/Total Housing % ) Linear (FL State Seasonal/Total Housing % ) Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014)
Overall, growth in new housing units is occurring west and north of the Study Area, as shown in Exhibit 3.2.11(1) below. However, some housing strength is witnessed within the Primary Census tract (206) and adjoin areas east of the Study Area. For the Study Area, the Primary tract’s Seasonal Use/Total Housing Units ratio increased by 8.6% annually, whereas for the Secondary this category demonstrated greater strength by rising by 28.9% each year. Summary Conclusion – Housing Units/Vacancy/Seasonal Use Housing
Overall housing unit inventory has shrunk within the NFM‐MA by 0.1% per year, while County and State growth rates are positive. Occupied housing growth rate is slower than County or State. Vacant housing growth rate is slower than County or State. Occupancy figures for the NFM‐MA are below State averages. Seasonal use housing is growing at a faster pace than the State.
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Exhibit 3.2.11(1) – Total Housing Units Change 2010‐2014
Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014); ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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3.2.12 – Median House Values Housing values have witnessed dramatic changes in recent years, far exceeding the inflation effects of the past five years. For 2010, the median house value by weighted averaging of the NFM‐MA was $189,754 (2014 dollars). By 2014, that value had declined to $119,172. Although this is an 8.9% annual decrease, the value loss has kept pace with Lee County (‐8.1% annually) and the State of Florida (‐6.9% annually), as illustrated in the following Chart 3.2.12 below. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.12).
Chart 3.2.12 – Median Housing Values in 2014 Dollars 2010‐2014 $240,000 $228,642 $223,214 $220,000 $200,000 $189,754 $180,000 $156,200 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $119,172 $120,000 $100,000 Median house value Yr. 2010 Inflation Median house value 2014 adjusted to 2014 dollars
NFM‐MA Housing Values Lee County Housing Values FL State Housing Values Linear (NFM‐MA Housing Values) Linear (Lee County Housing Values) Linear (FL State Housing Values )
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014)
Value declines have occurred in fifty‐nine of the sixty NFM‐MA Census tracts. For the Study Area, the median housing values have plummeted by 50% in both the Primary and Secondary tracts. While median housing values analysis of this Task has produced a difficult picture of housing value appreciation, some good news at least on a county‐wide level is welcoming. In 2015, the median Lee County home sold for $185,0004. By mid‐2016, this price has increased to
4 Year over Year sales figures, 1/1‐5/31, Multiple Listing Service (MLS)/Steelbridge Realty
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$202,000 which represents a 9.2% gain. When considering the average price change, these figures are higher, with a $268,825 yr. 2015 value rising by 4.1% to $279,936 in yr. 2016. In the January through May MLS comparison period for both 2015 and 2016, North Fort Myers demonstrated a 9.16% appreciation in price and an 8.93% gain in total sales volume. The actual counts of purchased properties fell slightly (‐0.21%) reinforcing the rise in values contributing to sales volume increase.
Summary Conclusion – Median House Values Median home values in 2010‐2014 period have fallen about 10% faster in the NFM‐ MA than for Lee County and 29% for the State. Recovery of sales prices in 2015‐2016 is probable.
3.2.13 – Housing Value Distribution The distribution of housing values has also witnessed somewhat dramatic change in the 2010‐ 2014 period for the NFM‐MA, Lee County and the State of Florida. Increasingly, upper sector home prices have given way to more affordable figures. In the NFM Market Area, the shift to values below $150,000 have exceeded the State’s trend line, while upper valued home share is well below State averages. Chart 3.2.13 below illustrates these trends. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.13). In the 2010‐2014 period, the NFM‐MA has witnessed significantly higher value change in houses above $150,000, as shown in Table 3.2.13(1) immediately following Chart 3.2.13. The largest growth has been in the under $50,000 category, and the $40,000 to $150,000 sectors follow County and State trends, but at a slower pace. Exhibit 2.2.13(1) below indicates the distribution of median housing values among the sixty Census tracts for the yr. 2014. As illustrated, the higher values areas are northeast, south and east of the Study Area. Where major inventory growth had occurred in the western section of the NFM‐MA (refer to Exhibit 3.2.11(1)), valuation levels indicate these most of these new properties are moderate priced within the $65.k to $117.K range. Current house values are likely to have stabilized as economic conditions improve. While population expansion has occurred to the north and west of the NFM‐MA, housing values have been in the more modest range ($65.5K to $117.5K) for these growth tracts. This is also true for the Study Area as well.
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Chart 3.2.13– Distribution of Housing Values by percent 2010‐2014 30.0% 26.0%
25.0% 19.3% 21.5% 16.0% 17.8% 16.4% 20.0% 16.7% 14.5% 14.0% 13.4% 15.0% 7.0% 9.8% 4.4% 10.0% 2.2% 0.8% 5.0% 0.5%
0.0% <$50K %$50K‐ $100K‐ $150K‐ $200K‐ $300K‐ $500‐$999.9K > $1,000K % $99K % $149.9K % $199.9K % $299.9K % $499.9K % %
NFM‐MA Housing Values 2010 NFM‐MA Housing Values 2014 Lee County Housing Values 2010 Lee County Housing Values 2014 FL State Housing Values 2010 FL State Housing Values 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014)
Table 3.2.13(1) – Change in Distribution of Housing Values by percent 2010‐2014 $50K‐ $100K‐ $150K‐ $200K‐ $300K‐ $500‐ <$50K $99K $149.9K $199.9K $299.9K $499.9K $999.9K >$1,000K NFM‐MA Annual Values Changes 11.2% 7.9% 3.3% ‐2.0% ‐8.2% ‐12.3% ‐13.1% ‐10.6% Lee County MA Annual Values Changes 11.7% 10.9% 4.7% ‐1.0% ‐6.1% ‐7.7% ‐9.9% ‐3.4% FL State MA Annual Values Changes 8.9% 11.3% 5.0% ‐0.4% ‐5.0% ‐8.4% ‐8.9% ‐4.6% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014)
By weighted averaging of housing value distribution calculated by assigning average home prices to ranged values, an approximation of a typical home in 2014 for the NFM‐MA can be established at $159,550 as shown below. If a CPI Inflation5 is applied, then the 2016 is
5 http://data.bls.gov/cgi‐bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=156070&year1=2014&year2=2016
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$162,186 in current dollars. In comparison, inflation adjusted Lee County and State of Florida values are $228,722 and $224,361, respectively.
Table 3.2.13(2) – Weighted Average Home Value 2014 Home Value Distribution Est. $100K‐ $150K‐ $200K‐ $300K‐ $500‐ Wghtd. <$50K $50K‐ $149.9K $199.9K $299.9K $499.9K $999.9K > $1,000K Avg. % $99K % % % % % % % Home Est. Value $35,000 $75,000 $125,000 $175,000 $250,000 $400,000 $750,000 $1,250,000 Value NFM‐MA 2014 % 16.7% 26.0% 19.3% 14.5% 14.0% 7.0% 2.2% 0.5% 100.0% NFM‐MA Weighted Average Home Value $159,550 Lee County 2014 % 11.8% 22.1% 16.1% 13.7% 15.9% 12.3% 6.0% 2.1% 100.0% Lee County Weighted Average Home Value $225,005 State of Florida 2014 % 10.4% 19.5% 17.6% 16.2% 17.6% 11.9% 4.9% 1.9% 100.0% State of Florida Weighted Average Home Value $225,005 Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014); DCG Corplan Consulting
Summary Conclusion – Housing Value Distribution The most common range for home values in growth areas of the NFM‐MA in 2014 is the $65.5K to $117.5K price. Price levels have likely stabilized in 2015 and 2016. By weighted average, a 2016 average home in the NFM‐MA would be about $162,000. Price differential for NFM‐MA is 29% lower than Lee County and 28% lower than the State.
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Exhibit 3.2.13(1) – Median Housing Values 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2014); ESRI ArcMap 10.4
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3.2.14 – Housing Types Detached single‐family homes are the overwhelmingly common housing type in the NFM‐MA (53%). This is also applicable for the Lee County and the State of Florida as well. Chart 3.2.14 below illustrates the relationships by percent of the nine housing categories used by the US Census Bureau. Five‐year changes are not very evident, but the chart does indicate two interesting outcomes. (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.14).
Chart 3.2.14 – Housing Types by # of Units in Structure by percent 2010‐2014 60.0% 52.4% 53.4%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0% 13.5% 3.6% 5.4% 7.3% 9.6% 4.9% 9.2% 12.6% 5.3% 3.2% 7.2% 3.7% 4.9% 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.5%
0.0% 1‐unit 1‐unit 2 units 3‐4 units 5‐9 units 10‐19 units 20+ units Mobile Boat, RV, detached attached home Van
NFM‐MA Housing Typess 2010 NFM‐MA Housing Types 2014 Lee County Housing Types 2010 Lee County Housing Types 2014 FL State Housing Types 2010 FL State Housing Types 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014)
For the NFM‐MA, 20+ unit buildings are quite below the County (‐11%) and the State (‐45%) averages and would indicate that this type of development is needed in the area. Correspondingly, mobile homes are 17% and 27% more frequent in the North Fort Myers Market than the County and the State, respectively.
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Recent trends in Lee County suggests Townhouses are the fastest growing segment of the housing market with the most appreciation in sales price. Table 3.2.14(1) below illustrates the various housing types prevalent in the Lee County market, excluding mobile homes.
Table 3.2.14(1) – Housing Types in Lee County by Sales Volume & Price % Counts % Price 2015 2016 Difference Average Average Difference Type Counts Counts 2015‐2016 Price 2014 Price 2015 2014‐2015 Single Family 5,800 5,242 ‐9.6% $297,629 $308,771 3.7% Villa Attached 410 351 ‐14.4% $206,562 $202,540 ‐1.9% Low Rise (1‐3) 1,826 1,557 ‐14.7% $199,003 $214,218 7.6% Mid Rise (4‐7) 387 298 ‐23.0% $229,496 $266,064 15.9% Townhouse 264 292 10.6% $157,531 $192,705 22.3% High Rise (8+) 292 206 ‐29.5% $508,097 $544,941 7.3% Sources: Multiple Listing Service (MLS); Steelbridge Realty
However, in terms of total sales volume6, while single‐family continues to dominate the Lee County market, Low‐, Mid‐ and High‐rise developments collectively represented over 25% of the market volume in yr. 2015.
Lee County Market Type 2015 Volume % Market Share Single Family $1,790,871,800 69.5% Low Rise (1‐3) $391,162,068 15.2% High Rise (8+) $159,122,772 6.2% Mid Rise (4‐7) $102,966,768 4.0% Villa Attached $83,041,400 3.2% Townhouse $50,874,120 2.0% Total Lee County Market Types $2,578,038,928 100.0%
Summary Conclusion ‐ Housing Types: For the NFM‐MA, the most dominant housing category is the detached single‐family There is an opportunity for more 20+ unit building development
6 Note: This calculation excludes mobile homes, boat, RV’s and vans.
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Multi‐story housing categories represent more than 25% of the market Mobile home‐use as a housing type is nearly 20% and 30% above County and State averages, respectively
3.2.15 – Household Tenure
In 2014, the NFM‐MA had a household tenure mix of 64%‐36% homeowner to renter. That ratio declined by 1.4% annually from a 69%‐31% mix in 2010, signaling that rental properties are growing in demand (2.5% annual growth). Chart 3.2.15(1) below illustrates this trend. Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.15(a).
Chart 3.2.15(1) – North Fort Myers Market Area – Households by Tenure 85,000 72,284 75,000 65,887 65,000 55,000 45,000 36,939 35,000 32,159 25,000 15,000 2010 2014 NFM‐MA Households ‐ Owners NFM‐MA Households ‐ Renters Linear (NFM‐MA Households ‐ Owners) Linear (NFM‐MA Households ‐ Renters)
Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014); Table B25004 (2010‐ 2014); Table S2501 (2010‐2014)
For Lee County, the trend was slightly higher, with a 1.5% decline in homeowner mix percentage. Statewide, the mix change was even less with a 1.1% annual decline. Table 3.2.15(1) compares weighted average rental price points (monthly rent) for rental types for the NFM‐MA, Lee County and the State of Florida (refer to Appendix Table 3.2.15(b)). The 2014 weighted average for all rental property in the NFM Market Area is $885 per month. When CPI inflation is applied, the 2016 price is $902 per month. The rental market is skewed somewhat due to the numerous inexpensive mobile home rentals which can be as low as $395 per month. For Lee County and the State, the 2014 weighted averages for rental properties were $918 and $940, respectively, and when adjusted for inflation, 2016 prices
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Table 3.2.15(1) – Average Rental Price Points by Rental Type 2014 % Avg. % Avg. % Avg. Rental # Units Distrib. Price # Units Distrib. Price # Units Distrib. Price Type NFM‐MA Lee County State FL Studio 678 1.9% $823 1,252 1.7% $870 92,742 3.8% $751 1 Bedrm 5,453 15.0% $699 9,708 12.8% $717 541,350 22.1% $807 2 Bedrms 15,300 42.1% $825 29,652 39.2% $874 988,674 40.4% $954 3+ Bedrms 14,910 41.0% $1,018 34,962 46.3% $1,013 821,798 33.6% $1,032 Total 36,341 100.0% 75,574 100.0% 2,444,564 100.0% Avg. Price Point (monthly rent) $885 $918 $940 CPI Adjusted 2016 Price $902 $935 $957 Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table B25068 (2014); DCG Corplan Consulting
For the Study Area, the household tenure mix for the Primary tract of 61%‐39% had declined by 0.3% annually from the 2010 62%‐38% ratio. The Secondary declined by an even larger 0.5% from 79%‐21% to 77%‐23%. Summary Conclusion ‐ Housing Tenure:
Homeowner rate of growth is slower in the NFM‐MA than the County or the State. Renter growth rate is slower than the County but faster than the State. Renter growth is outpacing homeowner growth. 2016 average rental for the NFM‐MA is about $900 per month, which is below Lee County and State of Florida prices.
Labor Force & Earnings
3.2.16 – Labor Force In 2014, the NFM‐MA had an employed labor force of 106,194 persons. With a 16 years and older population of 223,159 and a 122,762 total civilian labor force, the NFM Market Area demonstrated a 55.0% labor participation rate and an unemployment rate of 13.5 percent. According to the US Census, in comparison, the State of Florida labor participation rate in 2014 was 59.2% and the unemployment rate was 10.9 percent. The US Bureau of Labor
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Statistics, however, indicates that Florida’s unemployment rate was 6.7% by December of 2014. The current figures7 place the unemployment rate at 4.6% for the State of Florida and 4.0% for Lee County. Accordingly, job recovery in the NFM‐MA should be indicating positive trends. However, Labor Participation Rates (LPR) have been declining nationally producing uncertain effects on unemployment statistics. Florida has exhibited a negative pattern from a 59.2% LPR in 2014 to 58.8% in 2016, and both Lee County and the NFM‐MA may have followed similar paths. (For more information, refer to Appendix Tables 3.2.16(a‐e)). The Labor Force is distributed by major occupational group as defined by federal and State labor departments and falls into five major occupation groups as shown below in Table 3.2.16(1):
Table 3.2.16(1) – NFM‐MA Employment Change by Major Occupational Category 2010‐2014 % Lee % NFM‐ MA % State FL County Annual Annual 2010 2014 Annual Change Change Occupational Group Employment Employment Change Management, Business, Science and Arts 30,080 31,220 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% Services 24,154 23,856 ‐0.2% 2.7% 1.7% Sales and Office 31,830 30,974 ‐0.5% ‐0.7% ‐0.5% Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance 16,974 11,543 ‐7.4% ‐5.0% ‐3.3% Production, Transportation and Material Moving 9,895 8,061 ‐2.8% ‐0.8% ‐0.3% Total 112,933 106,194 ‐1.2% ‐0.3% 0.04% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
From 2010 to 2014, the NFM‐MA had a net annual loss of ‐1.2% of its labor force (6,739 workers), which was greater in percentage than either Lee County or the State of Florida. Net job losses occurred in Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance (‐5,431 jobs), Production, Transportation, & Material Moving (‐1,294 jobs), Sales and Office (‐856 jobs), and Services (‐298 jobs). Net labor gains, on the other hand, were seen in only the Management,
7 Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Florida’s May 2016 Employment press release, http://lmsresources.labormarketinfo.com/library/press/release.pdf
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Business, Science and Arts sector (1,140 jobs). In 2014, the NFM‐MA labor force represented 41.8% of the Lee County labor force. This is a decline from 2010’s share of 43.9%, or a loss of 2.1 percentage points as shown in Table 3.2.16(2).
Table 3.2.16(2) – NFM‐MA Labor Force as Percentage Share of Lee County’s Labor Force 2010‐2014 2010 2014 Employment Employment NFM‐MA Labor Force 112,933 106,194 Lee County Labor Force 257,289 253,789 NFM‐MA % Share 43.9% 41.8% NFM‐MA Change in % Share 2010‐2014 ‐2.1% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
The major groups from above are further segmented into 24 minor occupational groups as follows: Management, Business, Science & Arts Management Business & Financial IT & Computers Architectural & Engineering Life & Physical Sciences Community & Social Services Legal Educational, Training & Library Arts, Design & Entertainment Health Care Diagnosing Health Care Technicians Services Healthcare Support Protective Services Food Preparation & Serving Building & Grounds Maintenance Personal Care & Services Sales & Office Sales & Related Office & Administrative Support
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Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance Farming, Fishing & Forestry Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance & Repair Production, Transportation, & Material Moving Production Transportation Material Moving
The ten most commonly occurring job groups in the NFM‐MA are shown below. Together, these job groups account for 73% of total 2014 employment as indicated in Table 3.2.16(3):
Table 3.2.16(3) – 10 Most Common Occupational Categories for NFM‐MA 2014 Occupational Category 2014 # of Positions Office & administrative support 15,634 Sales & Related 15,340 Management 8,624 Food Preparation & Serving 7,945 Building & Grounds Maintenance 6,701 Construction & Extraction 6,561 Educational, Training & Library 4,884 Installation, Maintenance & Repair 4,208 Health Care Diagnosing 4,097 Transportation 3,615 Subtotal 77,609 Total NFM‐MA Labor Force 2014 106,194 Percentage Share of NFM‐MA Labor Force 2014 73.1% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
Although there was an overall job loss in the NFM‐MA during the 2010‐2014 period, job growth (3,128 jobs) did occur in eleven of the twenty‐four minor occupational classes as shown in Table 3.2.16(4) below.
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Table 3.2.16(4) – Job Growth Occupational Categories for NFM‐MA 2014 Jobs Growth Occupational Category 2010‐2014 Community & Social Services 699 Health Care Diagnosing 556 Educational, Training & Library 510 Building & Grounds Maintenance 361 Health Care Technicians 270 Healthcare Support 246 Farming, Fishing & Forestry 177 Management 115 Life & Physical Sciences 86 IT & Computers 42 Material Moving 36 Legal 30 Total 3,128 Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
The remaining thirteen occupational categories contributed to a 9,867 job loss, resulting in the net ‐6,739 job figure. Table 3.2.16(5) below compiles all twenty‐four categories by job gain and loss to determine net job change performance and includes yr. 2023 projections for job growth. Shaded entries indicate occupational categories that demonstrate growth projection both historically and for the future:
Table 3.2.16(5) – Job Growth Occupational Categories for NFM‐MA 2014 with Lee County 2023 Projections Jobs Jobs Lee Growth Loss County Primary Secondary Tertiary 2010‐ 2010‐ 2023 Jobs Jobs Jobs Occupational Category 2014 2014 Proj. Category Category Category Management 115 18.7% Business & Financial ‐146 24.1% IT & Computers 42 20.4% Architectural & Engineering ‐558 23.9% Life & Physical Sciences 86 18.3% Community & Social Services 699 15.6% Legal 30 17.9%
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Educational, Training & Library 510 22.5% Arts, Design &
Entertainment ‐464 11.5% Health Care Diagnosing 556 24.6% Health Care Technicians 270 26.7% Healthcare Support 246 28.3% Protective Services ‐159 15.0% Food Preparation &
Serving ‐22 16.7% Building & Grounds Maintenance 361 20.5% Personal Care & Services ‐724 19.8% Sales & Related ‐440 14.5% Office & Administrative
Support ‐416 14.5% Farming, Fishing &
Forestry 177 ‐8.0% Construction & Extraction ‐4,547 39.1% Installation, Maintenance & Repair ‐1,061 18.6% Production ‐762 13.7% Transportation ‐558 14.7% Material Moving 36 16.6% Total 3,128 ‐9,867 Net Jobs Change ‐6,739 2,100 851 ‐7,036 Lee County Median Projected yr. 2023 Job Growth 18.4% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014); Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Lee County Employment Projections
From the above table, it is evident that job recovery is forecasted to be robust in the County. Occupation groups in the NFM‐MA which demonstrate dynamic growth patterns (Primary) 8 are as follows: Management IT & Computers Educational, Training & Library
8 For this calculation, occupations are included that demonstrate positive 2010‐2014 NFM‐MA growth patterns plus a yr. 2023 growth rate that exceed the Lee County projected median.
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Health Care Diagnosing Health Care Technicians Healthcare Support Building & Grounds Maintenance
A second group of occupations which are not quite as dominant (Secondary)9 but will be important in the future for the NFM‐MA include: Life & Physical. Sciences Community & Social Services Legal Material Moving
A third group of occupations which were not exemplary (Tertiary)10 in the 2010‐2014 period but should demonstrate recovery in the future for the NFM‐MA include: Business & Financial Architectural & Engineering Personal Care & Services Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance & Repair
For the Study Area, job loss was 967 positions in total, with 419 and 548 declines in the Primary (206) and Secondary (205.02) tracts, respectively. Sales & Office occupations were the most prevalent total employment, however, Services witnessed the highest job loss (‐467 jobs) in the 2010‐2014 for the Study Area.
Summary Conclusion – Labor Force: NFM‐MA labor force declined faster than the County or State in the 2010‐2014 period. Job losses which occurred in 2010‐2014 are likely to stabilize in coming years. Primary and secondary recommended occupations are estimated as concurrent with historic NFM‐MA trends and projected Lee County growth. Majority of job growth for the NFM‐MA is in white‐collar occupations, especially in technical, health care, and educational categories.
9 This group includes positive 2010‐2014 growth patterns NFM‐MA and a yr. 2023 growth rate below the Lee County projected median but still above zero. 10 This group had negative growth during the 2010‐2014 period but have a yr. 2023 growth rate above the Lee County projected median.
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3.2.17 – Earnings
Wage earnings in the NFM‐MA are mixed in comparison to County and State averages. In each occupational group, the NFM‐MA weighted average hourly wage exceeded Lee County. In all except Mgmnt./Bus/Scince/Arts and Prod./Transp./Mat’l. Mvng. categories, the NFM‐ MA surpassed the FL State mean. NFM‐MA wages are higher than for Lee County in all five categories. (refer to Appendix Table 3.2.17).
Chart 3.2.17(1) – Wage Comparisons by Major Occupational groups by percent 2014
$30.00 $23.12 $24.08 $24.48 $25.00
$20.00 $13.19 $12.16 $14.24 $12.03 $13.90 $12.68 $12.60 $12.70 $15.00 $9.63 $12.31 $10.80 $9.53 $10.00
$5.00 Mgmnt. Bus., Services Occups Sales & Office Nat'l Resourc., Prod., Transp, Mat'l. Science & Arts Occups. Const. & Maint. Moving. Occups. Occups. NFM‐MA Wghtd. Avg. Hrly. Wage 2014 Lee County Avg. Hrly. Wage 2014 FL Avg. Hrly. Wage 2014
Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
Historically, earnings have fallen due to stagnation in salaries and the impacts of inflation. As illustrated in Table 3.2.17(1), loss in actual earnings in the NFM‐MA have been mixed in comparison to Lee County and greater in all major categories versus the State of Florida in the 2010‐2014 period.
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Table 3.2.17(1) – Major Occupational Group Hrly. Wage Fluctuation 2010‐2014 NFM‐MA % Lee % State of 2010 Wghtd. 2014 Wghtd. County FL Change Avg. Hrly Wage Avg. Hrly % Annual Annual Annual Occupational Group (2014 dollars) Wage Change Change Change Management, Business, Science and Arts $26.13 $24.08 ‐1.6% ‐1.6% ‐0.8% Services $11.95 $10.80 ‐2.0% ‐2.3% ‐1.2% Sales and Office $14.43 $12.68 ‐2.6% ‐2.9% ‐1.8% Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance $16.00 $14.24 ‐2.3% ‐4.1% ‐1.9% Production, Transportation and Material Moving $15.87 $12.31 ‐5.0% ‐3.9% ‐3.3% Average Total $16.24 $14.84 ‐1.8% ‐2.5% ‐1.3% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
Table 3.2.17(2) below compares hourly earnings (wages) by major occupational group for the NFM‐MA against both Lee County and the State of Florida.
Table 3.2.17(2) – Major Occupational Hrly. Wage Differential 2014 Hourly Wages Hrly. Wage Differential NFM‐MA / Lee State of Lee NFM‐MA / Occupational Group NFM‐MA County FL County State of FL Management, Business, Science and Arts $24.08 $23.12 $24.48 $0.96 ‐$0.41 Services $10.80 $9.63 $9.53 $1.18 $1.28 Sales and Office $12.68 $12.16 $12.70 $0.52 ‐$0.02 Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance $14.24 $13.19 $13.90 $1.04 $0.34 Production, Transportation and Material Moving $12.31 $12.03 $12.60 $0.28 ‐$0.29 Average Total $14.84 $14.95 $16.12 ‐$0.12 ‐$1.29 Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2014)
For the comparison to the County, the following groups are ranked for their potential to deliver higher wage advantages to NFM‐MA residents: 1. Services 2. Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance
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3. Sales and Office 4. Management, Business, Science and Arts 5. Production, Transportation and Material Moving
For the comparison to the State, ranked order produces the following for two of the five groups: 1. Services 2. Natural resources, Construction, and Maintenance
In the State comparison, wage differentials are negative in the remaining three groups, indicating that the NFM‐MA is paying lower wages than the State mean. For NFM‐MA residents, higher earnings translate into better standards of living. However, uncovering wage differentials that can offer savings to prospective employers may be viewed as an important recruitment incentive for the Study Area. In this analysis, further comparisons to Lee County are unnecessary as it would result in competing the NFM‐MA against itself. Table 3.2.17(3) below shows the wage comparisons for NFM‐MA compared to the State of Florida for the minor occupational categories. Positive, savings would indicate an advantage for a prospective employer; negative burdens might indicate some concern, however, a more detailed analysis would be required before suggesting that a particular occupation is overpriced. The sixteen recommended occupations (primary, secondary & tertiary) from Task 3.2.16 are shown in yellow, orange, and green shading, respectively.
Table 3.2.17(3) – Minor Occupational Category Comparisons of Wage Savings 2014 NFM‐ NFM‐MA – FL NFM‐MA ‐ FL MA Hrly FL State State Cost State Cost Wage Wage Savings Burden Occupational Group 2014 2014 Percentage Percentage Mgmnt. Bus., Science & Arts Management (primary) $24.51 $27.77 ‐11.7% Business & Financial (tertiary) $25.39 $23.32 8.9% IT & Computers (primary) $25.05 $30.50 ‐17.9% Architectural & Engineering (tertiary) $27.79 $30.58 ‐9.1% Life & Physical Sciences (secondary) $24.43 $23.55 3.7% Community & Social Services (secondary) $19.14 $17.66 8.4% Legal (secondary) $34.32 $28.73 19.5%
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Educational, Training & Library (primary) $17.52 $18.32 ‐4.3% Arts, Design & Entertainment $15.36 $15.32 0.3% Health Care Diagnosing (primary) $35.69 $30.01 18.9% Health Care Technicians (primary) $18.82 $16.84 11.7% Services Healthcare Support (primary) $12.14 $11.11 9.3% Protective Services $20.77 $17.89 16.1% Food Preparation & Serving $8.01 $7.29 9.9% Building & Grounds Maintenance (primary) $9.78 $8.34 17.3% Personal Care & Services (tertiary) $9.62 $7.96 20.9% Sales & office Sales & Related $13.19 $12.26 7.6% Office & Administrative Support $12.18 $13.10 ‐7.0% Nat'l Res., Constr. & Maint. Farming, Fishing & Forestry $7.66 $7.85 ‐2.4% Construction & Extraction (tertiary) $12.69 $12.73 ‐0.4% Installation, Maintenance & Repair (tertiary) $17.86 $16.81 6.2% Prod., Transp., Mat'l. Moving Production $13.23 $12.98 1.9% Transportation $13.40 $14.31 ‐6.4% Material Moving (secondary) $8.73 $8.91 ‐2.0% Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2401 (2014), DCG Corplan Consulting
For the Study Area, annual wage losses in the 2010‐2014 period were led by Mgmnt. Bus., Science & Arts occupations (‐11.3% per year) but were least witnessed in Services (‐0.7% per year). The weighted hourly wage for the Study Area in 2014 was $11.51, down 35% from 2010’s $17.66 hourly pay. Summary Conclusion – Earnings: NFM‐MA wage costs savings may be available in white‐collar, sales, and most blue‐ collar jobs. Services are generally higher in cost in the NFM‐MA as are construction and extraction categories. Wage advantages in the NFM‐MA exist for employers in the following ranked categories: 1. IT & Computers 2. Management
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3. Architectural & Engineering 4. Office & Administrative Support 5. Transportation 6. Educational, Training & Library 7. Farming, Fishing & Forestry 8. Material Moving 9. Construction & Extraction Healthcare occupations, although recommended targets, are higher in costs in the NFM‐MA than compared with the State of Florida.
Consumer Spending
3.2.18 – Consumer Market Potential
Retail Goods & Services As described in Task 3.1, identification of the study area is critical for determination of economic trends. This is especially true when identifying a Retail Trading Area. For the NFM‐ Market Area, recognition that the Caloosahatchee River most likely presents a natural boundary for the retail trading area, and then most North Fort Myers residents will probably select convenience shopping areas closer to home than across the river. Accordingly, the five‐ minute, ten‐minute and fifteen‐minute shape drive time polygons are more realistic descriptions of the retail trading area, but the twenty‐minute shape would cover too much of Fort Myers and Cape Coral to provide useful reference for the Study Area. (Refer to Exhibit 6.2.1(1) for detail of the NFM Retail Trading Area (NFM‐RTA)). In Table 3.2.18(1) below, the NFM‐RTA retail expenditure estimates have been calculated for the fifteen‐minute drive polygon described in Exhibits 3.1.3 and 6.2.1 and for the State of Florida. Lee County was not included in this comparison to avoid double‐counting. An overall retail market of $3.767 billion has been established for the NFM‐RTA, which is 1.1% of the State of Florida’s $332.6 billion estimated retail sales for 2015. (For more information, refer to Task 6.2.1 Retail Sales). The table ranks and compares the share percentage of retail spending in 31 NAICS retail and food services categories for the NFM‐RTA and the State. Where the ranking Potential Sales growth is positive, a highlighted and shaded row occurs.
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Table 3.2.18(1) – NFM‐RTA Ranked Retail & Food Service Expenditures 2015 Potential Sales NFM‐RTA State of FL Growth Annual % of Annual % of $ Retail Sector Sales 000's Sales Sales 000's Sales % Share Millions Automobile dealers $849.2 22.5% $59,573.2 17.9% ‐25.9% Grocery stores $485.6 12.9% $52,286.7 15.7% 18.0% $87.4 Department stores $484.2 12.9% $39,617.0 11.9% ‐7.9% Building material and supplies dealers $198.1 5.3% $11,469.1 3.4% ‐52.5% Health and personal care stores $192.4 5.1% $19,950.4 6.0% 14.9% $28.6 Other motor vehicle dealers $189.1 5.0% $13,151.7 4.0% ‐27.0% Other general merchandise stores $185.2 4.9% $12,359.1 3.7% ‐32.3% Limited‐Service Eating Places $148.3 3.9% $12,123.3 3.6% ‐8.0% Full‐Service Restaurants $141.7 3.8% $17,924.5 5.4% 30.2% $42.8 Gasoline stations $110.5 2.9% $13,485.5 4.1% 27.7% $30.6 Electronics and appliance stores $105.8 2.8% $12,437.1 3.7% 24.9% $26.3 Other miscellaneous store retailers $90.9 2.4% $10,319.7 3.1% 22.2% $20.2 Furniture stores $89.2 2.4% $5,503.3 1.7% ‐43.1% Clothing stores $79.4 2.1% $10,351.0 3.1% 32.3% $25.6 Sporting goods, hobby, and musical instrument stores $77.5 2.1% $5,744.9 1.7% ‐19.1% Automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores $52.0 1.4% $3,895.0 1.2% ‐17.9% Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods stores $33.8 0.9% $2,882.5 0.9% ‐3.5% Used merchandise stores $33.1 0.9% $1,325.2 0.4% ‐120.5% Home furnishings stores $32.0 0.8% $3,588.6 1.1% 21.3% $6.8 Specialty food stores $27.8 0.7% $3,098.9 0.9% 20.8% $5.8 Beer, wine, and liquor stores $25.3 0.7% $2,612.6 0.8% 14.5% $3.7 Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order $25.0 0.7% $7,271.3 2.2% 69.6% $17.4 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores $23.9 0.6% $2,550.8 0.8% 17.3% $4.1 Direct Selling Establishments $22.0 0.6% $1,428.8 0.4% ‐35.9% Shoe stores $21.3 0.6% $2,136.5 0.6% 12.0% $2.6 Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores $16.8 0.4% $1,883.3 0.6% 21.2% $3.6 Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages $7.6 0.2% $1,181.2 0.4% 43.2% $3.3 Book stores and news dealers $7.3 0.2% $1,207.4 0.4% 46.6% $3.4
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Florists $4.6 0.1% $530.4 0.2% 23.4% $1.1 Vending Machine Operators $4.1 0.1% $199.4 0.1% ‐81.5% Special Food Services $3.3 0.1% $509.6 0.2% 42.8% $1.4 Total $3,767.0 100.0% $332,598.0 100.0% $314.6 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
From the above table, NFM‐RTA lags the State in eighteen retail sectors which could become important opportunities for retail development in the Study Area. Projected sales volume growth does not necessarily translate into additional floor space need (refer to Task 6.2.1 for further analysis). However, the eighteen sectors could possibly contribute to as much as $315 million of new retail business if resident of the NFM‐RTA follow more closely the consumer spending trends statewide. In ranked order, the retail sectors which appear to offer the opportunity for growth are as follows:
1. Grocery stores 2. Full‐Service Restaurants 3. Gasoline stations 4. Health and personal care stores 5. Electronics and appliance stores 6. Clothing stores 7. Other miscellaneous store retailers 8. Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order 9. Home furnishings stores 10. Specialty food stores 11. Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores 12. Beer, wine, and liquor stores 13. Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores 14. Book stores and news dealers 15. Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages 16. Shoe stores 17. Special Food Services 18. Florists
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Sports & Leisure Given the waterfront nature of the Study Area, the sports and leisure consumer behavior pattern for the NFM‐RTA is an important consideration. Appendix Table 3.2.18 evaluates 67 categories of sports & leisure activity. The Table 3.2.18(2) below summarizes the evaluation, with “Primary” matches (11) indicating where the NFM‐RTA has a correlation match with or above the State of Florida’s figure (index=100.0). “Secondary” matches (26) signify that the NFM‐MA exceeds 90.0 correlation index indicating only a slight variance from the State’s metrics.
Table 3.2.18(2) – NFM‐RTA Sports & Leisure Activities Behavior 2015 by percent of Households State of FL NFM‐RTA % of % of Correlation Product/Consumer Behavior Households Households Index Match Activities Participated in the last 12 months Archery 2.6% 2.5% 104.0 Primary Baseball 4.6% 4.5% 102.2 Primary Fishing (fresh water) 11.7% 11.7% 100.0 Primary Fishing (salt water) 4.3% 4.3% 100.0 Primary Hunting with rifle 4.4% 4.1% 107.3 Primary Hunting with shotgun 3.5% 3.5% 100.0 Primary Target shooting 4.6% 4.6% 100.0 Primary Aerobics 7.4% 8.2% 90.2 Secondary Basketball 7.6% 8.0% 95.0 Secondary Boating (power) 4.9% 5.2% 94.2 Secondary Bowling 8.5% 9.0% 94.4 Secondary Canoeing/kayaking 4.8% 5.2% 92.3 Secondary Football 4.3% 4.6% 93.5 Secondary Horseback riding 2.1% 2.3% 91.3 Secondary Motorcycling 2.7% 2.8% 96.4 Secondary Softball 3.2% 3.4% 94.1 Secondary Swimming 14.2% 15.3% 92.8 Secondary Volleyball 3.0% 3.1% 96.8 Secondary Walking for exercise 24.5% 26.4% 92.8 Secondary Leisure Expenditures last 12 months Spent on sports/rec equip: $1‐99 5.6% 5.8% 96.6 Secondary
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Attended Activities last 12 months Spent on sports/rec equip: $1‐99 5.6% 5.8% 96.6 Secondary Attended Activities last 12 months High school sports 4.2% 4.4% 95.5 Secondary Other Leisure Activities in last 12 months Bingo 5.0% 4.3% 116.3 Primary Gamble at casino 14.3% 14.0% 102.1 Primary Music performance ‐ Country 5.1% 4.2% 121.4 Primary Music performance ‐ Rock 7.8% 5.5% 141.8 Primary Adult education course 6.0% 6.5% 92.3 Secondary Auto show 7.2% 7.5% 96.0 Secondary Bar/night club 14.3% 15.8% 90.5 Secondary Billiards/pool 7.1% 7.3% 97.3 Secondary Birdwatching 4.2% 4.4% 95.5 Secondary Camping trip 10.0% 11.0% 90.9 Secondary Danced/went dancing 7.4% 8.1% 91.4 Secondary Dance performance 3.9% 4.3% 90.7 Secondary Dining out 40.6% 44.4% 91.4 Secondary Horse races 2.5% 2.7% 92.6 Secondary Movie 55.7% 58.9% 94.6 Secondary Water park 2.8% 2.9% 96.6 Secondary Total # of Sports/Leisure Activities ‐‐ Primary 11 Total # of Sports/Leisure Activities ‐‐ Secondary 26 Source: ESRI Sports & Leisure Market Potential, MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
Summary Conclusions: Consumer Market Potential NFM‐RTA may be able to support up to $315 million new business in 18 retail sectors. “Outdoorsman” pursuits (hunting, fishing, etc.) are characteristic of sports & leisure activities in the NFM‐MA. Expenditures on sports and recreation equipment in all range categories lag the State averages. The ten most frequently occurring sports activities in the NFM‐RTA are as follows:
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Activity % of Hholds Walking for exercise 24.5% Swimming 14.2% Fishing (fresh water) 11.7% Jogging/running 9.4% Bowling 8.5% Bicycling (road) 8.2% Golf 8.2% Weight lifting 8.1% Basketball 7.6% Hiking 7.6%
The ten least frequently occurring sports activities in the NFM‐RTA are as follows:
Activity % of Hholds Ice skating 1.8% Horseback riding 2.1% Skiing (downhill) 2.1% Pilates 2.3% Backpacking 2.4% Archery* 2.6% Motorcycling 2.7% Volleyball 3.0% Soccer 3.1% Softball 3.2% *Archery is a Primary Match indicating a growth opportunity although currently not a frequently occurring activity.
Attendance at sporting events in all categories for the NFM‐RTA are below State averages. Attendance at leisure and cultural events such as art galleries, auto shows, bars/night clubs, dance performances, horse races, museums, music performances, theme park, water parks, and zoos by NFM‐RTA households are all below State of Florida averages for these events. The ten most frequently occurring leisure activities in the NFM‐RTA are as follows:
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Activity % of Hholds Movie 55.7% Dining out 40.6% Beach 21.6% Theme park 15.0% Bar/night club 14.3% Gamble at casino 14.3% Theater performance 11.2% Camping trip 10.0% Zoo 9.1% Museum 8.7%
The ten least frequently occurring leisure activities in the NFM‐RTA are as follows:
Activity % of Hholds Billiards/pool 7.1% Art gallery 6.1% Adult education course 6.0% Music performance ‐ Country 5.1% Bingo 5.0% Birdwatching 4.2% Dance performance 3.9% Music performance ‐ Classical/opera 3.5% Water park 2.8% Horse races 2.5%
Summary – Market Demography
The preceding 18 market demography topics have yielded a wide range of conclusions. To summarize, the following table places the key indicators by topic into a framework that highlights specific NFM‐MA advantages or constraints by comparison against Lee County and/or the State of Florida. Column checkmarks are applied when the NFM‐MA/NFM‐RTA category has a match against both (or in some cases just State of FL) comparison benchmarks. (Refer to Task 5 SWOT(T) analysis for further discussion on some of these points).
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Comparison to Comparison Market Demography Topic Advantage Constraint Lee County to State of FL Population Characteristics (3.2.1 to 3.2.3) Population growth rate Lower Higher Median Age Lower Higher Rate of Aging Faster Faster Males Median Age Lower Higher Female Median Age Same Higher Share of Working Ages (16‐65 yrs.) Fewer Fewer Middle ‐Age Workers (45‐64 yrs.) Same Same Senior Age (65+ yrs.) Lower Higher Gender, Race & Languages (3.2.4 to 3.2.5) Gender Balance Better Better Racial Diversification Less Less Language Spoken at Home – English Rising Rising only preference % Households & Income (3.2.7 to 3.2.9) Households growth rate Lower Lower Household Size growth rate Faster Slower Median Household Income Lower Lower Household Income rate of change Slower Faster (decline) Lower Income Cohort Share % Higher Lower Middle Income Cohort Share % Higher Higher Upper Income Cohort Share % Lower Lower Educational Attainment (3.2.10) High School/GED Only Education Higher Higher Attainment Share % Some College Only (no graduation) Higher Higher Education Attainment Share % All College Graduates Education Lower Lower Attainment Share % Associates Degree Growth Rate Faster Faster Bachelor’s Degree Growth Rate Slower Slower Graduate Degree Growth Rate Faster Faster All College Graduates Growth Rate Faster Faster Housing (3.2.11 to 3.2.15) Total Housing Inventory growth rate Slower Slower Occupied Housing Inventory growth Slower Slower rate Vacant Housing Inventory growth rate Slower Slower Seasonal Use Housing Growth Rate Faster Faster
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Median Values Change Rate (decline) Faster Faster Weighted Average Home price Lower Lower Single‐family type growth rate Faster Faster Duplex unit type growth rate Faster Faster 3‐4 Unit type growth rate Slower Faster 10‐19 Unit type growth rate Faster Faster 20+ Unit type growth rate Slower Slower Rate of Growth of Homeowner Units Slower Slower Rate of Growth of Rental Units Slower Faster Average Rental Price Point Lower Lower Labor & Earnings (3.2.16 to 3.2.17) Labor Force Change Rate (decline) Faster Faster Management, Business, Science and Faster Faster Arts occupations growth rate Services occupations growth rate Slower Slower Sales and Office occupations growth Slower Same rate Natural resources, Construction, and Slower Slower Maintenance occupations growth rate Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations growth Slower Slower rate Management, Business, Science and Lower Arts occupations avg. hrly. wage Services occupations avg. hrly. wage Higher Sales and Office occupations avg. hrly. Higher wage Natural resources, Construction, and Withheld from Maintenance occupations avg. hrly. further Higher wage analysis Production, Transportation and Material Moving occupations avg. hrly. Lower wage Healthcare Occupations avg. hrly. Higher wage Consumer Spending (3.2.18) Expenditures on Sporting equipment Withheld from Lower Attendance at Sporting Events further Lower Attendance at Cultural Events analysis Lower
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Task 3.3 – Target Industries/Location Quotients Analysis
In this section, targeted industries are identified as those businesses that demonstrate an increasing strength in the NFM‐MA will continue to flourish into the future. The Location Quotient (LQ) methodology is employed that graphically interpret industry growth trends.
Location Quotients Methodology
A Location Quotient is a way of quantifying how concentrated an industry cluster is in a Region as compared to the Nation or State. LQ’s are developed by comparing the local employment concentration by industry against a larger sample, in this case the State of Florida. By example, if an industry has a local employment of 150 which might represent 5% of the local employment total and the same industry for Florida has a 7% share of the State’s total, the LQ for this industry is produced through the quotient of 5% divided by 7%, or, an LQ of 0.71.
The goal of the LQ analyses is to identify local industries that are performing at higher levels of employment concentration than their state counterparts, thereby indicating that these industries have a more important role locally than regionally. Locally strong industries are more easily promoted and reinforced by economic development initiatives and help to identify the locality’s unique characteristics.
Thus, an industry of LQ greater than 1.0 (parity with State levels) reveals an indication that this industry should be considered as locally relevant. The State of Florida considers industries with LQ’s above 1.0 as those with export capability—the industry is producing more than is consumed locally. For industries at LQ of 1.0, demand is being met. And for industries below 1.0 LQ, industries of import demand – i.e., producing less than is consumed locally.
Another element of this method is the change of LQ’s over the evaluation period. Positive annual percentage gain in LQ reinforces the industry’s importance; loss indicates a decline in performance. Finally, the actual number of latest employment is a key feature that when combined with the LQ time change, provides a measure of “gravity”, i.e., the LQ Impact Factor. Industries with large employment concentration and large positive LQ growth will be considered as the primary candidate as target industries.
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How Are Industries Represented?
Industries are organized into the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) hierarchy. The data is drawn from the US Census Bureau for the sixty census tracts that describe the NFM‐MA. Employment data is segmented into the 20 sectors that comprise the NAICS 3‐digit categories. NAICS provides industry detail down to the six‐digit level covering over 800 individual industry categories. However, for purposes of this study, the three‐digit level of detail is utilized. Abbreviations for the longer NAICS titles have been generated as shown below:
AER Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation AF&S Accommodation and Food Services AFFH Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting ASWM Administrative and Support and Waste Management CNSTR Construction EDUC Educational Services F&I Finance & Insurance GOV Public Administration HCSA Health Care and Social Assistance INFO Information MFG Manufacturing MGMT Management of Companies and Enterprises MIN Mining, Quarrying & Oil / Gas Extraction OTH Other Services (Except Government) PST Professional, Scientific & Technical Services RERL Real Estate & Rental & Leasing RETAIL Retail Trade T&W Transportation & Warehousing UTIL Utilities WHOLE Wholesale Trade
Normally, the Census’ County Business Patterns would have been utilized to determine actual employment by industry as reported by employers. However, Census Tract employer data is not reported, and another approach toward data gathering was used. By evaluating the industries that local residents report working in11, an estimate of industry employment can be
11 US Census Occupation by Sex and Median Earnings in The Past 12 Months, Table S2401 (2010‐2014)
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The LQ Chart
The LQ chart is important resource as industries can be graphically represented in four quadrants that point out the changing conditions during the time period evaluation. Year 2020 employment by industry is shown as “bubbles”; the LQ change over time is the “X” axis; and the 2020 LQ is the “Y” axis. The X axis crosses the Y axis at the value of 1.0, thereby plotting the results for either success in exceeding FL State parity or failing to meet this criterion. Each quadrant is labeled as follows and uses unique descriptors. Competitive (COM) – dominant industries in the Region; Emerging (EMR) – emerging industries not yet achieving critical mass; At Risk (A‐R)– formerly strong industries that are losing power and influence; or, Declining (DEC) – industries that may be in danger of non‐sustainability in the Region demonstrates the industries’ role for the local economy. Graphic visualization using the LQ chart illustrates how industries within the North Fort Myers Market Area interact with each other. The location of the employment “bubbles” on the chart by virtue of which quadrant they occur and their diameter indicate relative growth, decline, or stagnation based on the distance of bubbles from the cross axis center point. For example, high concentration of related industries such as goods‐producing (manufacturing, natural resources & mining, and construction) in the Competitive quadrant can indicate that an economy is more export‐oriented and that the industry is producing more than is consumed locally.
12 US Census, Commuting Characteristics by Sex, Table S0801, 2014 – Lee County
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The LQ Chart provides a convenient graphical interpretation of this data evaluation. Chart 3.3(1) below illustrates LQ data for the NFM‐MA with tabular support for the chart immediately following in Table 3.3(1).
Location Quotient Impact Factors
The LQ Impact Factor could be imagined as a ball on a string being spun in a circle. A smaller and lighter ball on a long string could equal the similar amount of force as a heaver ball on a shorter string. However, the ideal condition would be produced by a heavy ball on a long string. Industries with large employment concentration and large positive LQ growth produce the highest impacts and are of the most importance. LQ Impact factors are calculated on an absolute value basis in recognition that a negative value would still produce an impact, and therefore, is converted to a positive number. Relative positions and size of employment bubbles in the chart indicate the impacts to the NFM‐MA’s economic environment. A formula has been produced to describe these LQ impacts:
LQ Impact Factor = ABS(2014 Employment x LQ Annual Change % x 2014LQ ) / 100)
The LQ Impact Factors in Table 3.3(1) (below) range from a high of 259.4 for Retail Trade (A‐R) and a low of 0.98 for Mining, Quarrying & Oil / Gas Extraction (DEC). The median LQ Impact Factor value for the NFM‐MA is 46.5 and and shaded rows indicate the industries that have an LQ Impact Factor value above the median.
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Chart 3.3(1) – All Industries Location Quotients Chart North Fort Myers Market Area 2014‐2020 At‐Risk Competitive
1.4
CNSTR
RERL 1.2 HCSA LQ OTH GOV WHOLE RETAIL INFO 2020
AF&S ‐6.0 ‐5.0 ‐4.0 ‐3.0 ‐2.0 ‐1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 EDUC AER 0.9 PST ASWM T&W UTIL
0.7 MFG
F&I
0.4
Declining Projected Annual % Change in LQ 2014‐2020 Emerging
Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2403 (2010‐2014); Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity
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Table 3.3(1) – All Industries Location Quotients Chart Summary – NFM‐MA 2014‐2020 NFM‐MA NFM‐ Proj'd. Location NFM‐MA MA Annual % Location Quotient Proj'd. 2020 NFM‐MA Change in LQ Quotient Impact Abbrev. Description Empl. 2020 LQ 2014 LQ 2014‐2020 Code Factor Agriculture, Forestry, AFFH Fishing and Hunting 373 0.37 0.76 ‐11.48 DEC 25.9 MIN (not Mining, Quarrying & Shown) Oil / Gas Extraction 17 0.16 0.42 ‐14.61 DEC 0.98 CNSTR Construction 10,693 1.31 1.33 ‐0.31 A‐R 37.8 MFG Manufacturing 3,610 0.65 0.61 1.09 EMG 32.0
WHOLE Wholesale Trade 3,582 1.12 0.78 6.14 COM 232.5 RETAIL Retail Trade 15,951 1.07 1.17 ‐1.57 A‐R 259.4 Transportation & T&W Warehousing 3,883 0.83 0.86 ‐0.49 DEC 17.2 UTIL Utilities 717 0.87 0.82 0.97 EMG 6.5 INFO Information 2,256 1.08 0.96 1.97 COM 46.2
F&I Finance & Insurance 3,080 0.57 0.61 ‐0.92 DEC 21.5 Real Estate & Rental & RERL Leasing 3,742 1.21 1.11 1.37 COM 56.4 Professional, Scientific PST & Technical Services 6,787 0.88 0.79 1.84 EMG 117.1 MGMT Management of (not Companies and Shown) Enterprises 340 4.42 1.42 20.84 COM 148.8
Administrative and Support and Waste ASWM Management 5,688 0.83 1.08 ‐4.28 DEC 221.9
EDUC Educational Services 8,757 0.91 0.82 1.82 EMG 151.9 Health Care and Social HCSA Assistance 18,306 1.15 1.18 ‐0.31 A‐R 60.0
Arts, Entertainment, AER and Recreation 3,033 0.89 0.96 ‐1.09 DEC 31.4
Accommodation and AF&S Food Services 10,710 1.05 1.08 ‐0.43 A‐R 46.8
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Other Services (Except 24.9 OTH Government) 6,690 1.10 1.13 ‐0.36 A‐R
GOV Public Administration 5,805 1.11 0.93 2.95 COM 181.0
Total 114,019 LQ Impact Factor Median 46.5 Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2403 (2010‐2014); Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity
The yr. 2020 job growth projection results in a net gain on 7,825 positions over yr. 2014 for the NFM‐MA. Appendix Table 3.3.2 provides detail data on job creation by industry which denotes a positive increase by 10,267 positions in fourteen of the twenty industry sectors, and a loss of 2,442 in the remaining six sectors.
Review of Industry Performance
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (AFFH) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 829 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 373 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: ‐456 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: ‐55% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 18 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
The LQ Impact Factor for AFFH is 25.9 which is 44% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is not a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with projected job losses for the future are not an encouraging indicator.
Mining, Quarrying & Oil / Gas Extraction (MIN) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 42 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 17 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: ‐25 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: ‐61% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 16 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
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The LQ Impact Factor for MIN is .98 which is 98% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is not a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with projected job losses for the future are not an encouraging indicator.
Construction (CNSTR) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 9,177 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 10,963 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,516 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 17% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 3 Location Quotient Quadrant: At‐Risk
The LQ Impact Factor for CNSTR is 37.8 which is 19% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a moderate consideration. The industry’s position in the At‐Risk quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with projected job gains for the indicate that the industry may require some assistance for the future but remains an encouraging prospect.
Manufacturing (MFG) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,427 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,610 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 183 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 5% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 12 Location Quotient Quadrant: Emerging
The LQ Impact Factor for MFG is 32.0 which is 31% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a minor consideration. The industry’s position in the Emerging quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with a low expectation of projected job gains indicate that the industry will require some level of assistance for the future but is not yet considered an encouraging prospect.
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Wholesale Trade (WHOLE) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 2,409 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,582 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,173 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 49% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 5 Location Quotient Quadrant: Competitive
The LQ Impact Factor for WHOLE is 232.5 which is 400% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Competitive quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with a high expectation of projected job gains indicate that the industry will be a strength for the area for the future and is considered an encouraging prospect.
Retail Trade (RETAIL) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 16,721 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 15,951 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: ‐770 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: ‐5% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 19 Location Quotient Quadrant: At‐Risk
The LQ Impact Factor for RETAIL is 259.4 which is 458% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. However, the industry’s position in the At‐Risk quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with the expectation of projected job losses indicate that the industry will be of diminishing performance for the area for the future and is only considered a moderately encouraging prospect.
Transportation & Warehousing (T&W) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,877 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,833 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 6 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 0% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 14 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
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The LQ Impact Factor for T&W is 17.2 which is 63% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a not major consideration. The industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with negligible expectation of projected job gains are not an encouraging indicator.
Utilities (UTIL) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 692 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 717 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 25 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 4% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 13 Location Quotient Quadrant: Emerging
The LQ Impact Factor for UTIL is 6.5 which is 86% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a not major consideration. The industry’s position in the Emerging quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with a low expectation of projected job gains indicate that the industry will require some level of assistance for the future but is not yet considered an encouraging prospect.
Information (INFO) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 2,055 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 2,256 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 201 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 10% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 10 Location Quotient Quadrant: Competitive
The LQ Impact Factor for INFO is 46.2 which is 1% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a moderate consideration. The industry’s position in the Competitive quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with the expectation of projected job gains indicate that the industry will could be considered as a possible strength for the area for the future and is considered a moderately encouraging prospect.
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Finance & Insurance (F&I) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,133 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,080 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: ‐53 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: ‐2% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 17 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
The LQ Impact Factor for F&I is 21.5 which is 54% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is not a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with projected job losses for the future are not an encouraging indicator.
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing (RERL) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,251 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,742 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 491 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 15% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 7 Location Quotient Quadrant: Competitive
The LQ Impact Factor for RERL is 56.4 which is 21% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Competitive quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with projected job gains will be a strength for the area for the future and is considered an encouraging prospect.
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (PST) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 5,489 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 6,787 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,298 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 24% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 4 Location Quotient Quadrant: Emerging
The LQ Impact Factor for PST is 117.2 which is 152% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Emerging quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with strong projected
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Management of Companies and Enterprises (MGMT) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 104 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 340 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 236 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 227% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 9 Location Quotient Quadrant: Competitive
The LQ Impact Factor for MGMT is 148.8 which is 220% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Competitive quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with moderate projected job gains will be a strength for the area for the future and is considered an encouraging prospect.
Administrative and Support and Waste Management (ASWM) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 6,825 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 5,688 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: ‐1,137 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: ‐17% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 20 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
The LQ Impact Factor for ASWM is 221.9 which is 377% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. But, the industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with large projected job losses will be of diminishing performance for the area for the future and is not considered an encouraging prospect.
Educational Services (EDUC) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 6,964 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 8,757 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,793 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 26%
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NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 1 Location Quotient Quadrant: Emerging
The LQ Impact Factor for EDUC is 151.8 which is 227% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Emerging quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with large projected job gains will be a strength for the area for the future and is considered an encouraging prospect.
Health Care and Social Assistance (HCSA) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 16,619 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 18,306 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,687 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 10% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 2 Location Quotient Quadrant: At‐Risk
The LQ Impact Factor for HCSA is 60.0 which is 29% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the At‐Risk quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with strong projected job gains for the indicate that the industry may require some assistance for the future but remains an encouraging prospect.
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (AER) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,033 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 3,033 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 0 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 0% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 15 Location Quotient Quadrant: Declining
The LQ Impact Factor for AER is 31.3 which is 33% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is not a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Declining quadrant of the LQ chart coupled with flat projected job changes are not an encouraging indicator.
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Accommodation and Food Services (AF&S) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 10,326 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 10,710 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 384 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 4% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 8 Location Quotient Quadrant: At‐Risk
The LQ Impact Factor for AF&S is 46.8 which is 1% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a moderate consideration. The industry’s position in the At‐Risk quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with moderate projected job gains for the indicate that the industry may require some assistance for the future but remains an encouraging prospect.
Other Services ‐ Except Government (OTH) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 6,505 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 6,690 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 185 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 3% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 11 Location Quotient Quadrant: At‐Risk
The LQ Impact Factor for OTH is 24.9 which is 46% below the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is not a major consideration. The industry’s position in the At‐Risk quadrant of the LQ chart balanced with minor projected job gains for the indicate that the industry may require some assistance for the future and is only marginally considered as encouraging prospect.
Public Administration (GOV) Yr. 2014 NFM‐MA Employment: 4,716 Projected Yr. 2020 NFM‐MA Employment: 5,805 Net New NFM‐MA Jobs Created by 2020: 1,089 NFM‐MA Employment Growth 2014‐2020: 23% NFM‐MA Employment Growth Rank: 6 Location Quotient Quadrant: Competitive
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The LQ Impact Factor for GOV is 181.0 which is 289% above the NFM‐MA median of 46.5, indicating that the importance of this industry for the NFM‐MA is a major consideration. The industry’s position in the Competitive quadrant of the LQ chart with balanced with large projected job gains will be a strength for the area for the future and is considered an encouraging prospect.
Screening & Ranking of Targeted Industries
Screen #1 ‐ Recommendations Based on the recommendations of industries from the above narrative, the following industry groups are eliminated from further consideration: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Finance & Insurance Manufacturing Mining, Quarrying & Oil / Gas Extraction Transportation & Warehousing Utilities
Screen #2 – Projected job growth Based on the projected yr. 2020 job growth, the following industry groups are eliminated from further consideration due to negative performance: Retail Trade Administrative and Support and Waste Management
Screen #3 – Projected LQ Impact Factor Based on the LQ Impact Factor, the following industry groups are eliminated from further consideration due to below median NFM‐MA position: Information Construction Other Services (Except Government)
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Final Ranking The eight final industries identified as prospective targets for the NFM‐MA are shown in Table 3.3(2) below. Ranking order is developed by average ranking of employment growth and LQ Impact factor performance.
Table 3.3(2) – Final Ranking of NFM‐MA Targeted Industries NFM‐MA Job Change NFM‐MA 2020 2014‐2020 LQ Factor Avg. Final Recomm’d Empl. Rank Factor Rank Rank Rank Prospect Educational Services 1,793 1 151.8 3 2.0 1 YES Wholesale Trade 1,173 4 232.5 1 2.5 2 YES Public Administration 1,089 5 181.0 2 3.5 3 YES Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,298 3 117.1 5 4.0 4 YES Health Care and Social Assistance 1,687 2 60.0 6 4.0 4 YES Management of Companies and Enterprises 236 8 148.8 4 6.0 6 YES Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 491 6 56.4 7 6.5 7 YES Accommodation and Food Services 384 7 46.8 8 7.5 8 YES Subtotal NFM‐MA Targeted Industries Jobs 2020 8,150 Percent of Total Net New NFM‐MA Jobs 2020 79.4% Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table S2403 (2010‐2014); Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, DCG Corplan Consulting
Summary: Target Industries
As a corollary to the primary, secondary and tertiary occupational recommendations of Task 3.2.16, the following Table 3.3(3) compares the selected occupations against the estimated of new jobs potentially provided by the NFM‐MA labor force and the share of industry employment represented by the occupational category. A ranking of the degree of industry/occupational correlation is provided at the end of the table. Ascending ranked order signifies the industry’s preference for successful implementation by utilizing NFM‐MA’s labor force strength.
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Table 3.3(3) – Correlation of NFM‐MA Industry Employment and Growth Occupational Categories Target Industries NFM‐MA Prof’l. Health Mgmnt. Real Job Scientfc Whole Care & of Estate & Accom. Growth & Tech. Occupation Educat’l. sale Public Social Cos.& Rental & & Food Occupat’l. Services Categories Services Trade Admin. Assist Enterp. Leasing Services Recomm. Manag't 86 83 64 110 58 47 55 10 Primary IT & Comp. 30 34 28 220 11 26 3 0 Primary Educa'l Train'g & Libr'y 1,060 0 23 2 44 1 0 0 Primary Health Care Diagnos'g 28 3 28 17 368 2 1 0 Primary Health Care Tech's. 6 2 19 12 194 1 0 0 Primary Healthcare Support 5 0 14 11 319 1 0 0 Primary Bldg & Grounds Maint 69 6 25 5 39 1 36 18 Primary Life & Phy. Scncs 25 3 34 51 9 2 0 0 Secondary Comm. & Social Srvcs 42 0 54 1 92 2 0 0 Secondary Legal 1 1 30 98 0 3 2 0 Secondary Material Moving 2 119 11 7 14 3 13 0 Secondary Bus & Fin'l 29 57 113 194 28 53 26 1 Tertiary Personal Care & Srvcs 29 0 31 5 171 1 6 5 Tertiary Constr. & Extract. 6 4 50 11 2 1 6 0 Tertiary Install., Maint. & Repair 21 76 46 11 13 4 89 3 Tertiary Est. New Jobs 1,439 389 572 755 1,363 146 238 39 % New Jobs Correlation 80.2% 33.2% 52.5% 58.2% 80.8% 61.8% 48.4% 10.0% Est. New Jobs Ranking 1 5 4 3 2 7 6 8 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Based on the above ranking, the following industries are presented as the best choices for the NFM‐MA and the most sustainable implementation opportunities in the Study Area. The component elements of each industry sector is presented as supportive information.
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1. Educational Services 2. Health Care & Social Assistance 3. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 4. Public Administration 5. Wholesale Trade 6. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 7. Management of Companies and Enterprises 8. Accommodation & Food Services
Targeted Industries Descriptions
Educational Services Elementary & secondary schools Junior colleges Colleges, universities & professional schools Business schools & Computer & Management training Technical & trade schools Other schools & instruction o Fine arts schools o Sports & recreation instruction o Language schools o Exam preparation & tutoring o Automobile driving schools Education support services
Health Care & Social Assistance Physicians Dentists Other health practitioners Outpatient care centers Medical & diagnostic laboratories Home health care services Hospitals Nursing & residential care centers Individual & family services Community food, housing & emergency & other relief services
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Vocational rehabilitation services Child care services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Legal services Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services Architectural, engineering, and related services Specialized design services Computer systems design and related services Management, scientific, and technical consulting services Scientific research and development services Advertising, public relations, and related services Other professional, scientific, and technical services o Photographic services o Translation and interpretation services o Veterinary services
Public Administration Executive offices Legislative bodies Public finance offices Courts Police departments o Sheriff & State police offices o Police academies o DEA, ATF, & other federal agencies Correctional institutions, detention centers Public health offices, human resources agencies Veterans affairs offices Housing offices Transportation, environmental offices National and international security affairs
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Wholesale Trade Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies Furniture and home furnishing Lumber and other construction materials Professional and commercial equipment and supplies Metal and mineral (except petroleum) Household appliances and electrical and electronic goods Hardware, and plumbing and heating equipment and supplies Machinery, equipment, and supplies Miscellaneous durable goods Paper and paper product Drugs and druggists' sundries Apparel, piece goods, and notions Grocery and related product Farm product raw material Chemical and allied products Petroleum and petroleum products Beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverage Miscellaneous nondurable goods Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Lessors of real estate Offices of real estate agents and brokers Activities related to real estate o Real estate property managers o Offices of real estate appraisers o Other activities related to real estate Automotive equipment rental and leasing Consumer goods rental General rental centers Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets (except copyrighted works)
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Management of Companies and Enterprises Offices of Bank Holding Companies Offices of Other Holding Companies Corporate, Subsidiary, and Regional Managing Offices
Accommodation & Food Services Hotels (except Casino hotels) & motels Casino hotels Bed & breakfast inns Guest houses, cottages, cabins Recreational vehicle parks & campgrounds Off campus dormitories, fraternity houses Residential clubs Food service contractors o Caterers o Mobile food trucks Drinking places (alcoholic) Restaurants o Full service o Limited service, fast food
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TASK FOUR – REVIEW REAL ESTATE MARKET SUPPLY AND PATTERNS OF PERFORMANCE
Approach to the Methodology
In this section, Real Estate supply is reviewed in a more closely aligned inspection of the Study Area. Topics covered include: Zoning and Land Use – current ordinance review. Total Property Inventory (occupied and vacant). o Occupied – Housing, Retail and Food Service, Office and Commercial, Lodging, and Non‐Profit/Non‐taxable. (In the review of housing, special attention has been paid to Cabana City as this is the largest residential component of the Study Area.) o Vacant – Vacant Residential and Vacant Commercial/Other. Growth in Market Value – changes in appraised parcel values 2015/2016 and value differentials. GIS maps graphically illustrate the data findings and are located at the end of the section.
Key Findings
Key Metrics Study Area Total Area (sq. miles) 0.37 Total # of Parcels 280 Total Parcel Acreage 195.15 # of Occupied Parcels 233 # of Vacant Parcels 47 Vacancy ratio 17% Housing Parcels 153 Housing Total acreage 46.98 # of Homestead exempted parcels 54 Housing Absentee ownership % 52% Housing Absentee ownership % ‐ Cabana City 54% Avg. Single family housing sales price $/PSF $154 Avg. Townhouse sales price $/PSF $124 Avg. Condominium sales price $/PSF $118
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Retail & Food service Parcels 38 Retail & Food service Acreage 71.86 Approximate Retail & Food service Total space sf 651,000 Retail Asking Rent Range $ PSF $6.37 to $14.00 Office & Commercial Parcels 30 Office & Commercial Acreage 18.76 Avg. Floor‐Area Ratio (FAR) 0.24 Office & Commercial Asking Rent Range $ PSF $9.70 to $14.40 Lodging Parcels 6 Lodging Acreage 16.60 Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable Parcels 6 Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable Acreage 7.92 Vacant Residential Parcels 25 Vacant Residential Acreage 8.24 Vacant Commercial & Other Parcels 22 Vacant Commercial & Other Acreage 24.79
The Study Area consists of nine zoning districts: five commercial and four residential. Key opportunities for revitalization: Mixed‐Use Overlay regulation, which allows for mixed uses, more intensified density, and elevated building heights. The five most prevalent land uses by total acreage are as follows: o Single Family Residential o Shopping Center, Community o Commercial, Vacant o Store, One (1) Floor o Motel By order of total acreage, housing is grouped in: Single Family Residential; Multi‐ Family, Less Than 10 Units; Mobile Home Parks; and, Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units. Homestead exemption applies to 48 single‐family; and, 6 multi‐family less than 10 units. Motel properties in the Study Area produced a weighted average Google Rating of 2.7 (out of 5.0) which is substandard for quality hotel brands. A new hotel property in the Study Area should be based on a guideline of 41 rooms per acre in a four‐story configuration as determined through weighted averaging of 13 Fort Myers hotel properties. For Cabana City, vacant residential properties represent 68% of the total vacant residential number, but only 32% of the total acreage.
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Vacant commercial parcels are somewhat scattered but there are assemblage possibilities, including combined vacant and underutilized commercial or other properties. Large areas of commercial properties along US 41 and Business 41 demonstrate little appreciation in value. There are 214 parcels (76%) that witnessed less than 25% appreciation in 2016 over 2015 market value.
Task 4.1 – Zoning and Land Use
The Study Area consists of nine zoning districts (five commercial and four residential) as shown in Table 4.1(1) below (refer to Exhibit 4.1):
Table 4.1(1) – Study Area Zoning Zoning Max Lot Max. District Description Features Coverage Height Commercial & select C‐1A Commercial (Light) residential uses 40% 35 ft Commercial Commercial & select C‐1 (Moderate) residential uses 40% 35 ft Commercial & select C‐2 Commercial (Heavy) residential uses 40% 35 ft Community Community or regional CC Commercial Shopping centers 40% 35 ft Commercial Planned Mixed use office, retail CPD Development & multi‐family housing TBD 135 ft Residential single RS‐1 family Single family homes 40% 35 ft Duplex, two‐family Multi‐family attached and RM‐2 Residential townhouse units. 45% 35 ft Duplex, two‐family and Two‐family single‐family dwelling TFC‐2 residential units 45% 35 ft Mobile Home MH‐2 Residential Mobile home parks 40% 35 ft Source: Lee County Development Code
Given the economic difficulty that the Study Area has witnessed over the past decade or more, a realistic review of zoning objectives should be conducted. One of the most
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 145 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT interesting opportunities for revitalization for the Study Area is the utilization of the Mixed‐ Use Overlay regulation, which allows for mixed uses, more intensified density, and elevated building heights.
Task 4.2 – Total Property Inventory
The Study Area is a 0.37 square mile area comprises 280 parcels totaling 195.15 parcel acres in 29 categories of land use (refer to Exhibit 4.2(1) at the rear of this section). Overall, there are 233 occupied and 47 vacant parcels. The vacancy ratio is 17 percent. Table 4.2(1) below provides a comparison of property types and associated total acreage. From the table, the five most prevalent land uses by total acreage are as follows: 1. Single Family Residential 2. Shopping Center, Community 3. Commercial, Vacant 4. Store, One (1) Floor 5. Motel
Collectively, these five property groups account for 56% (109.69 acres) of the total parcel inventory. For 2015, the aggregate appraised Market Value (Just) of the Study Area properties was almost $57 million. Total property tax revenue generated by these 280 parcels was almost $780,000. Preliminary 2016 market value for the Study Area is estimated at just over $70 million, and represents a 24% increase in total market value for all properties.
Table 4.2(1) – Study Area – All Parcels Inventory 2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Parcel Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Auto Services/Repair 5 1.87 $11,090 $687,897 $735,942 Commercial, Vacant 18 21.43 $21,654 $1,341,804 $1,384,809 County Owned Government Bldg. 2 4.24 $0 $2,409,240 $4,148,618 Department Store 2 12.04 $51,569 $3,637,457 $4,707,771 Financial Institution 3 2.76 $32,121 $1,970,809 $1,908,351 Marina 1 0.66 $6,519 $480,000 $481,544 Medical Office Building 2 1.66 $4,452 $636,398 $999,344 Mixed Use 1 0.92 $3,393 $210,738 $298,812
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Mobile Home Park 2 10.39 $28,616 $1,784,156 $2,156,817 Motel 6 16.60 $131,625 $9,665,526 $13,229,170 Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units 1 0.31 $2,594 $159,545 $411,086 Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units 24 5.09 $14,902 $1,299,034 $1,762,996 Office Building, One Story 8 7.22 $42,642 $2,654,005 $3,016,475 Office Condominium 4 1.22 $6,555 $402,200 $418,835 Open Storage 1 0.61 $765 $47,043 $45,424 Orphanages, Non‐Profit Service 2 1.55 $0 $339,419 $465,799 Professional Building 1 0.86 $5,390 $330,711 $352,232 Religious Institution 1 1.24 $0 $868,626 $872,195 Restaurant 13 12.71 $80,965 $4,966,383 $7,128,380 Right‐of‐Way 2 0.96 $25 $1,519 $1,519 Shopping Center, Community 3 21.97 $121,965 $7,879,400 $7,886,166 Shopping Center, Neighborhood 3 4.48 $36,896 $2,265,143 $2,364,583 Single Family Residential 126 31.19 $54,799 $5,108,052 $6,570,900 Store, One (1) Floor 15 19.14 $105,337 $6,578,346 $7,734,811 Submerged 1 1.85 $2 $93 $93 Vacant Institutional 1 0.56 $0 $12,833 $18,273 Vacant Residential 25 8.24 $2,423 $154,014 $168,739 Vehicle Sales 2 1.53 $5,447 $335,054 $353,488 Warehousing 5 1.87 $8,170 $502,416 $605,068 Total 280 195.15 $779,918 $56,727,861 $70,228,240 Source: Lee County Property Appraiser
From the above table, a grouping of property types becomes evident. Collectively, the 29 categories can be more easily assembled into seven study areas as follows: Housing Retail & Food Services Office & Commercial Lodging Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable Vacant Residential Vacant Commercial & Other
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Occupied Property Inventory
Housing Occupied housing parcels (not vacant residential) total 153 parcels, covering 46.98 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(2.a). Property tax revenue generated from all classes was $100,940 in yr. 2015, with total market value for all properties at about $8.4 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for housing properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $10.9 million, and represents a likely 31% increase in total market value for all housing properties. Homestead exemption applies to 54 parcels; 48 single‐family; and, 6 multi‐family less than 10 units.
2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Housing Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Single Family Residential 126 31.19 $54,828 $5,108,052 $6,570,900 Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units 24 5.09 $14,902 $1,299,034 $1,762,996 Mobile Home Park 2 10.39 $28,616 $1,784,156 $2,156,817 Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units 1 0.31 $2,594 $159,545 $411,086 Total 153 46.98 $100,940 $8,350,787 $10,901,799 Per Acre Averages $2,149 $177,754 $232,055
Density Homestead Housing Class ‐ Density # of Parcels Total Acreage (Units/acre) Exemption Single Family Residential 126 31.19 4.0 0 Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units 24 5.09 4.7 6 Mobile Home Park 2 10.39 0.2 0 Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units 1 0.31 3.2 48 Total 153 46.98 3.3 54
Average density of the Single Family Residential category is 4.0 units per acre which is fairly dense suburban character. However, when in consideration that Cabana City properties account for nearly 80% of the Single Family Residential total (84 parcels), density for this sub‐ area equates to 6.6 units per acre, more often associated with urban planning standards. Additionally, the homestead exemption applies to 54 of the 153 (35%) Study Area residential parcels. For Cabana City, 33 of 104 (33%) housing properties have been granted the exemption.
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2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Housing Class – Cabana City Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Single Family Residential 85 12.83 $21,281 $2,253,025 $3,054,348 Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units 18 2.38 $7,527 $623,641 $926,457 Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units 1 0.31 $2,594 $159,545 $411,086 Total 104 15.53 $31,402 $3,036,211 $4,391,891 Per Acre Averages $2,022 $195,486 $282,771
Housing Class – Cabana City Density Homestead Density # of Parcels Total Acreage (Units/acre) Exemption Single Family Residential 85 12.83 6.6 30 Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units 18 2.38 7.6 3 Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units 1 0.31 3.2 0 Total 104 15.53 6.7 33
For all residential properties in the Study Area, absentee ownership is a common occurrence. In total, in 80 out of 153 total residential parcels (52%), the property is not the owner’s primary residence (refer to Exhibit 4.2(2)b). In Cabana City, this condition is slightly elevated (54%), with 56 out of 104 properties held as rental investment. With the high number of properties being occupied by non‐owners, and with the acknowledged crime and vagrancy perceptions of the Study Area gathered through public survey input, especially in and around Cabana City, Lee County should be cognizant that property ownership often sustains communities, while absentee landlord and high rental occupancy often leads to neighborhood deterioration and neglect. Wherever possible, home ownership should be encouraged as an economic development imperative. Housing prices in North Fort Myers have been climbing in the 2015‐2016 period, outpacing Lee County by a factor of two, although with a significantly lower price point:
2015 2016 2015 2016 Average House Price House Price Diff’l. Sales Volume Diff’l. ‐ Lee County $268,825 $279,936 4.1% 9,358 8,266 11.7% North Fort Myers $146,756 $160,204 9.2% 475 474 ‐0.2% Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS)/Steelbridge Realty
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The price appreciation most keenly seen throughout Lee County in the preceding year was evident in townhouses, followed by multi‐story buildings:
Average Average Price 2014‐2015 Housing Class Price 2014 2015 Differential Townhouse $157,531 $192,705 22.3% Mid Rise (4‐7) $229,496 $266,064 15.9% Low Rise (1‐3) $199,003 $214,218 7.7% High Rise (8+) $508,097 $544,941 7.3% Single Family $297,629 $308,771 3.7% Villa Attached $206,562 $202,540 ‐2.0% Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS)/Steelbridge Realty
Sales volume was also led by townhouses as the only growth housing class:
Sales Counts Sales Counts 2014‐2015 Housing Class 2015 2016 Differential Townhouse 264 292 10.6% Single Family 5,800 5,242 ‐9.6% Villa Attached 410 351 ‐14.4% Low Rise (1‐3) 1,826 1,557 ‐14.7% Mid Rise (4‐7) 387 298 ‐23.0% High Rise (8+) 292 206 ‐29.5% Source: Multiple Listing Service (MLS)/Steelbridge Realty
For a closer examination of housing in North Fort Myers, a review of sales listing obtained through Zillow13 for single‐family, townhouses, and condominiums reveals that in Cabana City, prefab houses or older single‐family homes are listed in the $50‐$60,000 level. Closer to the river the homes move up to the $90,000‐$170,000 level and those on the water between $170,000 and $264,000. Single family homes north of Palmdale Road near Lamar Road and Monica Lane are in the $70,000 range. Single family homes in the developments along Hancock Creek to the west of US 41 are mostly in the $200,000‐$250,000 range. Further west along Orange Avenue in Travis Avenue
13 http://www.zillow.com; North Fort Myers, 26 May 2016
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 150 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT the homes are in the $100,00’s and some are in the $76,000 range. Single‐family homes around Seaworthy Road and Anchor Way range between $250,000 and $419,000. Condo units to the west of US 41 vary widely from $150,000 to $1.25 million dollars. The small single story town homes along Holly Drive and Quiet Woods Court are estimated to have a value of $35,000. The single‐family homes west of Moody Road vary in price from $73,000 to $143,000 north of Hidden Acres Road and from $274,000 to $890,000 south of hidden Acres Road. Average sales prices and prices for the Study Area and immediate surroundings are as follows (refer to Appendix Table 4.1):
Average Average Avg. Housing Type Price Size (SF) Price/SF Single family $232,290 1,508 $154 Townhouse $124,900 1,006 $124 Condominium $154,867 1,308 $118 Source: Zillow.com
Among the condominium listings are four properties from the North Star Yacht Club high‐rises near Marinatown, just west of the Study Area. Together, these listed properties average $285,000 and range from $180,000 to $375,000. Average size is 1,552 square feet, and average sales cost is $184 PSF. For the Study Area, a multi‐family approach toward housing development is the only realistic avenue. Land is not available for single family subdivisions and, most likely not for townhouses either unless wholesale land assemblages could be accomplished. As pointed out in Task 3, there appears to be a need for 20+ unit buildings in the NFM Market Area, especially with affordably priced condominium apartments selling for about $120,000.
Retail and Food Services Retail and restaurants in the Study Area total 38 properties and cover 71.86 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(3)). Property tax revenue generated from all classes was $402,180 in yr. 2015, and total market value for all properties is about $25.7 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for retail and food services properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $30.2 million, and represents an 18% increase in total market value for all retail and food services properties.
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2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Retail & Food Services Classes Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Store, One (1) Floor 15 19.14 $105,337 $6,578,346 $7,734,811 Restaurant 13 12.71 $80,965 $4,966,383 $7,128,380 Shopping Center, Community 3 21.97 $121,965 $7,879,400 $7,886,166 Shopping Center, Neighborhood 3 4.48 $36,896 $2,265,143 $2,364,583 Department Store 2 12.04 $51,569 $3,637,457 $4,707,771 Vehicle Sales 2 1.53 $5,447 $335,054 $353,488 Total 38 71.86 $402,180 $25,661,783 $30,175,199 Per Acre Averages $5,597 $357,119 $419,929
Obtained from the property records of the Lee County Property Appraiser, the approximate total of retail/food services built area is nearly 651,000 square feet. Although occupancy figures for the aggregate properties are not available, on‐site observation would indicate a vacancy rate level of likely 50% or greater in the Study Area.
Retail or Food Service Class Area in SF Shopping Center, Community 229,521 Store, One (1) Floor 183,035 Department Store 126,681 Restaurant 59,289 Shopping Center, Neighborhood 40,409 Vehicle Sales 12,051 Total Area 650,986
Locations of the Store, One (1) Floor retail class is a challenge for the Study Area. Most these types of retail properties (61%) or 111,984 SF of the 183,035 SF total are located in the C‐2 commercial zone along Business Rte. 41. This zoning district permits manufacturing and other industrial uses to be mixed with retail which is normally an unusual and less than successful relationship based on truck traffic, storage needs, noise and smell (environmental), or visual appeal. Recognizing that the Study Area’s portion of Business 41 may not be the ideal location for retail, a review of the applicability of C‐2 zoning to this area may become necessary.
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Leasing activity information is available from Cushman & Wakefield14 (C & W) based on either the City of Fort Myers or Cape Coral. Overall vacancy for each market are 5.8% and 8.6%, respectively. Net absorption of retail space in Fort Myers is negative 4,500 sf while Cape Coral absorbed 35,000 SF. Retail asking rent in Fort Myers is $10.36 PSF and $11.98 PSF in Cape Coral. According to LoopNet15, retail space in the Study Area is being offered at between $6.37 and $14.00 PSF. Weighted averaging of the seven listings from LoopNet in the Study Area equal $11.10 PSF, reflecting some of the market conditions noted by C & W. Up the road, however, some properties on Bay Shore Road/Pine Island Road corridor are being quoted as high as $25 PSF. Resulting from data analysis conducted in preceding Task, the retail market is not a particularly strong driver for the North Fort Myers Study Area. Nevertheless, local retail and food service support of any revitalization effort is usually a requisite component. The amount of shopping, dining, and drinking/entertainment facilities sustainable in the Study Area will be a direct correlation to the amount of new housing, workplace, or tourism that the existing or assembled properties can accommodate.
Commercial & Office
Offices, business, and light industrial uses account for 30 properties on 18.76 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(4)). The ten classes of commercial and office properties accounted for $121,098 in property tax revenue in 2015, and had an aggregate market value of $7.6 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for commercial and office properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $8.3 million, and represents a probable 10% increase in total market value for the category.
2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Commercial & Office Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Office Building, One Story 8 7.22 $42,642 $2,654,005 $3,016,475 Warehousing 5 1.87 $8,170 $502,416 $605,068 Auto Services/Repair 5 1.87 $11,090 $687,897 $735,942
14 Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat Retail Snapshot, Fort Myers‐Naples; 4th Quarter, 2015 15 http://www.loopnet.com/for‐lease/north‐fort‐myers‐fl/retail/?e=u
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Office Condominium 4 1.22 $6,555 $402,200 $418,835 Financial Institution 3 2.76 $32,121 $1,970,809 $1,908,351 Mixed Use 1 0.92 $3,393 $210,738 $298,812 Professional Building 1 0.86 $5,390 $330,711 $352,232 Medical Office Building 1 0.77 $4,452 $273,164 $421,625 Marina 1 0.66 $6,519 $480,000 $481,544 Open Storage 1 0.61 $765 $47,043 $45,424 Total 30 18.76 $121,098 $7,558,983 $8,284,308 Per Acre Averages $6,455 $402,918 $441,581
Office Building, One Story is the most common building type, and from property records, these 8 properties had a combined floor area of 74,111 square feet. Based on the 7.22‐acre aggregate, a Floor Area Ratio for this type of project in the Study Area is 0.24 FAR. The majority (64%) of single‐story office space is situated within the CC Community Commercial zone, which allows for business and professional offices.
Market statistics for office space rental are based on North Fort Myers. Cushman & Wakefield estimates16 that North Fort Myers has an office inventory of 271,233 SF which represents only 1.4% of the Lee County total. There is no available data on any new office construction or absorption, but vacancy was only 2.3% at time of reporting. With there being no Class “A” buildings in North Fort Myers, the overall weighted average asking rent for office space is $7.99 PSF, which is nearly half of the Lee County average of $14.22 PSF.
Five office listings in the Study Area from LoopNet17 provide a weighted average asking rent of $9.70 PSF. Directly across the river in downtown Fort Myers, offices are renting from about $14.40 PSF on average.
Lodging
Lodging in the Study Area is concentrated in the US 41 corridor. There are six parcels (5 motels in all; only 4 in operation at present) totaling 16.60 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(5)). Motel classes, the only use type, accounted for $131,625 in property tax revenue in 2015, and had an aggregate market value of $9.7 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for lodging
16 Cushman & Wakefield, MarketBeat Office Snapshot, Fort Myers‐Naples; 2nd Quarter, 2015 17 http://www.loopnet.com/for‐lease/office/?bb=7u‐2733s2Gjg_6P
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2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Lodging Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Motel 6 16.60 $131,625 $9,665,526 $13,229,170 Total 6 16.60 $131,625 $9,665,526 $13,229,170 Per Acre Averages $7,931 $582,422 $797,159
The four active and one inactive motel properties are as follows:
Avg. Google Room Property # of Ratings Rate Size # of Rooms (max per Motel (acres) Rooms /Acre 5.0) Night Travelodge Fort Myers N 4.00 126 31.5 3.0 $47 Red Roof Inn 3.67 119 32.4 3.0 $70 Best Western 3.39 108 31.9 3.0 $90 Econo Lodge NFM 1.04 48 46.2 2.5 $44 2.0 Knights Inn (former (PERMANENTLY CLOSED) 4.50 110 31.5 rating) ‐‐ Weighted Average Total 16.60 511 30.8 2.7 $65
Given that these aggregate ratings indicate substandard market conditions for quality lodging properties, the unexpected increase in the 2016 market value total is most likely a result of location considerations and reuse potential rather than any recognizable appreciation in existing building or site conditions. It should also be noted that five of the six motel parcels are located within the C‐1A zone which does not permit hotel/motel uses. The remaining property is within the C‐2 zone and is a permitted use, however, is contiguous and a component of the non‐permitted property.
Based on number rooms each hotel/motel can support in any given market, a detailed lodging study is required, but a shortcut for the sake of brevity in this report may be taken which can
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 155 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT shed some light on the topic. Table 4.2(2) below compares 13 hotel properties in the Fort Myers (plus one recently closed) area by rooms per acre and building story height. By weighted average, a good quality four‐story hotel should be able to support 41 rooms per acre.
Table 4.2(2) – Comparison of Hotel Properties in the City of Fort Myers Rooms Hotel Brand & Location Acreage Rooms / Acre Stories La Quinta Airport 1.84 73 39.7 3 Four Points‐Sheraton 4.18 110 26.3 4 Homewood Suites ‐ Airport & Hilton Garden Inn ‐ Airport 7.22 297 41.2 5 Courtyard ‐ Marriott 3.90 137 35.2 3 Hampton Inn ‐ Airport 2.29 87 38.0 5 Springhill Suites ‐ Airport 2.75 106 38.6 4 Holiday Inn ‐ Airport 3.53 169 47.9 5 Holiday Inn – Downtown (Closed) 2.32 122 52.6 4 Holiday Inn Express ‐ Cape Coral 2.32 138 59.5 5 Hampton Inn & Suites 2.48 102 41.1 5 Hilton Garden Inn 2.76 126 45.7 5 Hyatt Place ‐ Forum 3.70 148 40.0 5 Residence Inn ‐ Marriott 2.00 78 39.0 3 Total 41.27 1,693 41.0 4 Source: Priceline.com; DCG Corplan Consulting
Only the Best Western in the Study Area qualifies as a multi‐story hotel building similar to the study group of properties in Table 4.2(1), and at 31.9 rooms/acre, the property may be considered as underdeveloped compared to other competitors. Of course, they are likely underlying zoning, market and economic factors contributing to the design of site. But, for a new hotel property considered for the North Fort Myers Study Area, a guideline of 41 rooms per acre in a four‐story configuration is a reasonably viable development plan.
Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable
There are six Study Area non‐profit/non‐taxable parcels which cover 7.92 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(6)). Total market value for 2015 for these parcels about $4.0 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for non‐profit/non‐taxable properties in the Study Area is estimated at
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 156 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT about $6.1 million, and represents a sizeable 52% increase in total market value for the category.
2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Non Profit/Non‐Taxable Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value County Owned, Government Bldg. 2 4.24 $0 $2,409,240 $4,148,618 Orphanages, Non‐Profit Service 2 1.55 $0 $339,419 $465,799 Religious Institution 1 1.24 $0 $868,626 $872,195 Medical Office Building 1 0.89 $0 $363,234 $577,719 Total 6 7.92 $0 $3,980,519 $6,064,331 Per Acre Averages $0 $502,352 $765,335
For a municipality, promoting or encouraging the development non‐taxable properties can have a successful outcome if the result is job creation and/or non‐profit revenue generation which will raise sales tax revenues, generate impact fees, and produce direct and indirect economic benefits to the community. From Task 3, targeted industries include educational and government activities, both of which are normally associated with non‐taxable real estate. In the Study Area, two adjoining tax exempt properties held by Lee County on Pondella Road plus a neighboring church begin to form a non‐profit development cluster. Potential addition of government buildings, college or training academies, health care services or other non‐ profit institutions may provide the impetus for neighboring for‐profit properties to consider investment and rehabilitation.
Vacant Property Inventory
Vacant Residential Vacant residential properties (not occupied housing) total 25 parcels, covering 8.24 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(7)). Property tax revenue generated from all classes was $2,423 in yr. 2015, with total market value for all properties at about $154,000. Preliminary 2016 market value for vacant housing properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $169,000, and represents a likely 10% increase in total market value for all vacant residential properties. On average, all vacant residential property is valued at $18,682 per acre.
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2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Vacant Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Vacant Residential 25 8.24 $2,423 $154,014 $168,739 Total 25 8.24 $2,423 $154,014 $168,739 Per Acre Averages $294 $18,682 $20,468
For Cabana City, vacant residential properties represent 68% of the total vacant residential number, but only 32% of the total acreage. However, tax revenue and valuation per acre are higher in Cabana City yet market value appreciation is only half (5%) that of the total 2016 projected figure. On average, Cabana City’s vacant residential property is valued at $28,955 per acre.
2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Vacant Class – Cabana City Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Vacant Residential 17 2.66 $1,182 $77,120 $80,726 Total 17 2.66 $1,182 $77,120 $80,726 Per Acre Averages $444 $28,955 $30,309
Vacant Commercial & Other Vacant commercial, institutional, submerged and rights‐of‐way total 22 parcels, covering 24.79 acres (Refer to Exhibit 4.2(8)). Property tax revenue generated from all classes was $21,681 in yr. 2015, and total market value for all properties was just over $1.35 million. Preliminary 2016 market value for vacant commercial and other properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $1.4 million, and represents a modest 4% increase in total market value for this category.
2015 2016 Property Total Est. Total # of Total Tax Market Market Vacant Class Parcels Acreage Revenue Value Value Vacant Commercial 18 21.43 $21,654 $1,341,804 $1,384,809 Right‐of‐Way 2 0.96 $25 $1,519 $1,519 Submerged 1 1.85 $2 $93 $93 Vacant Institutional 1 0.56 $0 $12,833 $18,273
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Total 22 24.79 $21,681 $1,356,249 $1,404,694 Per Acre Averages $874 $54,701 $56,655
On average, vacant commercial property is valued at $62,625 per acre. One current on‐line real estate listing indicates a 2.02‐acre commercial property for sale in the Study Area at $995,000, or $492,574 per acre. Current 2016 market value (Just) from the Lee County Property Appraiser’s office puts the same site value at $240,174, so a question arises as to the real property value. Most likely, a negotiated sale would result in a value somewhere between both figures. However, for the purposes of this study, Lee County Property Appraiser’s market values will be utilized. Vacant properties are somewhat scattered but there are assemblage possibilities. For example, along the Hancock Bridge Parkway corridor there are four contiguous properties in the C‐1A commercial zone which cover 9.46 acres collectively. At the district coverage ratio of 40%, there is a possibility of developing about 82,000 sf of new office space on the assembled parcels in four‐story buildings which produce a floor‐area‐ratio of .20 (FAR). Other opportunities may exist for redevelopment as combined vacant and underutilized commercial or other properties. Current zoning, in some cases, may need to be re‐examined for applicability to more realistic market potential.
Task 4.3 – Growth in Market Value
The seven property categories analyzed in the preceding section provide an overall 2015 market value of $56.7 million. When compared with the preliminary 2016 market value figures estimated by the Lee County Tax Appraiser, the 280 Study Area parcels are forecasted to gain $13.5 million, which translates to a 24% increase in market value.
Table 4.3(1) – Comparison of Total Market Values Market # of Total Market Value 2016 2015/2016 Parcels Acreage Value 2015 (est.) Diff'l. Housing 153 46.98 $8,350,787 $10,901,799 31% Retail & Food Services 38 71.86 $25,661,783 $30,175,199 18% Office & Commercial 30 18.76 $7,558,983 $8,284,308 10% Lodging 6 16.60 $9,665,526 $13,229,170 37%
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Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable 6 7.92 $3,980,519 $6,064,331 52% Vacant Residential 25 8.24 $154,014 $168,739 10% Vacant Commercial & Other 22 24.79 $1,356,249 $1,404,694 4% Total 280 195.15 $56,727,861 $70,228,240 24% Source: DCG Corplan Consulting LLC
The range of 2015/2016 market value differential is from 281% to ‐74%, with a median value of 31 percent. Actual dollar amounts from differential range from $2.763 million to ‐$58,867. The median figure for actual value differential is only $9,422. Refer to Exhibit 4.3(1) for a graphical display of these trends. By percentage differential, the seven classes rank in the following order: 1. Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable 2. Lodging 3. Housing 4. Retail & Food Services 5. Office & Commercial 6. Vacant Residential 7. Vacant Commercial & Other
By actual dollar differential, the seven classes rank in this order: 1. Retail & Food Services 2. Lodging 3. Housing 4. Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable 5. Office & Commercial 6. Vacant Commercial & Other 7. Vacant Residential
In combined and averaged rank, the seven classes rank in this final order: 1. Lodging 2. Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable (tied) 2. Retail & Food Services (tied) 3. Housing 4. Office & Commercial
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5. Vacant Commercial & Other (tied) 5. Vacant Residential (tied)
This ranking process is helpful, in determining which existing property classes have potential for development based on real estate value appreciation. This does not necessarily recommend a continuation of the current property uses, only which areas seem to have the most market demand based on the growth of value. Exhibit 4.10 indicates a bleak picture of anticipated real estate performance. Large areas of commercial properties along US 41 and Business 41 demonstrate little appreciation in value. Some value growth appears to be occurring in Cabana City, but expected growth areas such as the Caloosahatchee River waterfront or the Hancock Bridge Parkway corridor are surprisingly lagging. To demonstrate this weak real estate value performance, properties that are demonstrating below than 25% appreciation in 2016 over 2015 market value are shown in Exhibit 4.3(2). There are 214 parcels (76%) that fall into this category. Property total is 115.41 acres or 59% of the Study Area parcel inventory. Structural weakness in both the US 41 and Business 41 corridors is apparent as is the lack of value driver on the waterfront other than the Best Western hotel site. On the other hand, lack of upward value movement by the County may signal the development community that the Study Area is significantly underpriced. Response to value propositions by forward‐looking investors appears to be awaiting the catalyst that will propel interest. It is reasonable to assume that a speculative investment at a most visible location and possibly of scale and importance may be all that the area really need to begin its revitalization process.
Task 4 Summary
The following points summarize the research gathered in the preceding topics: The Study Area consists of nine zoning districts: five commercial and four residential Key opportunities for revitalization: Mixed‐Use Overlay regulation, which allows for mixed uses, more intensified density, and elevated building heights. The Study Area comprises 280 parcels totaling 195.15 acres in 29 categories of land use. Overall, there are 233 occupied and 47 vacant parcels. The vacancy ratio is 17 percent.
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The five most prevalent land uses by total acreage are as follows: o Single Family Residential o Shopping Center, Community o Commercial, Vacant o Store, One (1) Floor o Motel Collectively, the 29 categories can be more easily assembled into seven study areas as follows: o Housing o Retail & Food Services o Office & Commercial o Lodging o Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable o Vacant Residential o Vacant Commercial & Other Housing: Study Area totals 153 parcels, covering 46.98 acres. By order of total acreage, housing is grouped in: Single Family Residential; Multi‐Family, Less Than 10 Units; Mobile Home Parks; and, Multi‐Family, 10 or More Units. All housing properties produced $100,940 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $2,149 per acre Preliminary 2016 market value for housing properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $10.9 million, and represents a likely 31% increase in total market value over 2015 values Homestead exemption applies to 54 parcels; 48 single‐family; and, 6 multi‐family less than 10 units In the Study Area, absentee ownership is a common problem. In total, of the 80 out of 153 total residential parcels (52%), the property is not the owner’s primary residence. In Cabana City, this condition is slightly elevated (54%), with 56 out of 104 properties held as rental investment. Average housing sales pricing in the Study Area is: o Single family: $154 PSF o Townhouse: $124 PSF o Condominium: $118 PSF Retail and Food Service: Study Area totals 38 properties and covers 71.86 acres
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All retail & food services properties produced $402,180 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $5,597 per acre Preliminary 2016 market value for retail and food services properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $30.2 million, and represents a probable 18% increase in total market value over 2015 values The approximate total of retail/food services built area is nearly 651,000 square feet Retail space in the Study Area is being offered at between $6.37 and $14.00 PSF The retail market is not a particularly strong real estate driver for the North Fort Myers Study Area Office & Commercial: Study Area totals 30 properties on 18.76 acres All office & commercial properties produced $121,098 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $6,455 per acre Office Building, One Story is the most common building type with a combined floor area of 74,111 square feet Average Floor‐Area‐Ratio (FAR) for one‐story office buildings is 0.24 Study Area weighted average for office rent is $9.70 PSF. Downtown Fort Myers, offices are renting from about $14.40 PSF on average Lodging: Study Area totals 6 properties covering 16.60 acres All lodging properties produced $131,625 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $7,931 per acre Preliminary 2016 market value for lodging properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $13.2 million, and represents a surprising 37% increase in total market value over 2015 values There are four active and one inactive motel properties in the Study Area comprising the six parcels Motel properties in the Study Area produced a weighted average Google Rating of 2.7 (out of 5.0) which is substandard for quality hotel brands A new hotel property in the Study Area should be based on a guideline of 41 rooms per acre in a four‐story configuration as determined through weighted averaging of 13 Fort Myers hotel properties Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable: Study Area totals 6 properties covering 7.92 acres. Preliminary 2016 market value for non‐profit/non‐taxable properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $6.1 million, and represents a sizeable 52% increase in total market value over 2015 values
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Promotion or encouragement of development of non‐taxable properties can have a successful outcome if the result is job creation, increased impact fees, and direct and indirect economic benefits to the community Potential addition of government buildings, college or training academies, health care services or other non‐profit institutions may provide the impetus for neighboring for‐ profit properties to consider investment and rehabilitation Vacant Residential: Study Area totals 25 properties covering 8.24 acres All vacant residential properties produced $2,423 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $294 per acre Preliminary 2016 market value for vacant residential properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $169,000, and represents a 10% increase in total market value over 2015 values For Cabana City, vacant residential properties represent 68% of the total vacant residential number, but only 32% of the total acreage Vacant Commercial & Other: Study Area totals 22 properties covering 24.79 acres All vacant commercial & other properties produced $21,681 in property tax revenue in 2015, or $874 per acre Preliminary 2016 market value for vacant commercial & other properties in the Study Area is estimated at about $1.4 million, and represents a modest 4% increase in total market value over 2015 values Vacant commercial parcels are somewhat scattered but there are assemblage possibilities, including combined vacant and underutilized commercial or other properties Current zoning, in some cases, may need to be re‐examined for applicability to more realistic market potential Total Study Area: Preliminary 2016 market value for all 280 Study Area properties is estimated at about $70.2 million, and represents a 24% increase in total market value over 2015 values In combined and averaged rank of 2015/2016 market value differential by percent and actual dollars, the seven classes rank in this final order: 1. Lodging 2. Non‐Profit/Non‐Taxable (tied) 2. Retail & Food Services (tied) 3. Housing
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4. Office & Commercial 5. Vacant Commercial & Other (tied) 5. Vacant Residential (tied) The median value 2015/2016 market value appreciation is 31 %, which is actual only $9,422 per parcel Large areas of commercial properties along US 41 and Business 41 demonstrate little appreciation in value There are 214 parcels (76%) that witnessed less than 25% appreciation in 2016 over 2015 market value
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Exhibit 4.1(1) – Study Area Zoning Districts
Sources: Lee County Development Code; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
District Description Features C‐1A Commercial (Light) Commercial & select residential uses C‐1 Commercial (Moderate) Commercial & select residential uses C‐2 Commercial (Heavy) Commercial & select residential uses CC Community Commercial Community or regional Shopping centers Commercial Planned CPD Development Mixed use office, retail & multi‐family housing RS‐1 Residential single family Single family homes RM‐2 Multi‐family Residential Duplex, two‐family attached and townhouse units. TFC‐2 Two‐family residential Duplex, two‐family and single‐family dwelling units MH‐2 Mobile Home Residential Mobile home parks
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Exhibit 4.2(1) – Study Area – All Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area Total – All Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 280 Total land area (acres): 195.15 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $56,727,861 Assessed: $49,615,018 Taxable: $44,380,575 Land: $12,925,156 Building: $37,371,467 Total Property Tax Revenue: $779,918 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $3,996
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Exhibit 4.2(2).a – Study Area – Housing Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Housing Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 153 Total land area (acres): 46.98 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $8,350,787 Assessed: $6,961,092 Taxable: $5,620,581 Land: $2,490,463 Building: $4,999,074 Total Property Tax Revenue: $100,940 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $2,149
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Exhibit 4.2(2).b– Study Area – Housing Parcels Absentee Ownership Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Housing Parcels Absentee Ownership Inventory Number of parcels: 80 Total land area (acres): 30.04 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $4,927,334 Assessed: $4,371,036 Taxable: $4,322,424 Land: $1,579,376 Building: $2,688,850 Total Property Tax Revenue: $73,506 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $2,447
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Exhibit 4.2(3) – Study Area – Retail & Food Service Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Retail & Food Services Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 38 Total land area (acres): 71.86 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $25,661,783 Assessed: $23,888,286 Taxable: $23,888,286 Land: $5,423,739 Building: $16,550,787 Total Property Tax Revenue: $402,180 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $5,597
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Exhibit 4.2(4) – Study Area – Office & Commercial Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Office & Commercial Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 30 Total land area (acres): 18.76 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $7,558,983 Assessed: $7,394,331 Taxable: $7,394,331 Land: $1,424,793 Building: $5,317,878 Total Property Tax Revenue: $121,098 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $6,455
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Exhibit 4.2(5) – Study Area – Lodging Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Lodging Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 6 Total land area (acres): 16.60 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $9,665,526 Assessed: $6,009,171 Taxable: $6,009,171 Land: $1,805,419 Building: $7,178,930 Total Property Tax Revenue: $131,625 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $7,931
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Exhibit 4.2(6) – Study Area Non Profit/ Non‐Taxable Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Non Profit/Non‐Taxable Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 6 Total land area (acres): 7.92 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $3,980,519 Assessed: $3,881,099 Taxable: $0 Land: $370,843 Building: $3,307,775 Total Property Tax Revenue: $0 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $0
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Exhibit 4.2(7) – Study Area Vacant Residential Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Vacant Residential Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 25 Total land area (acres): 8.24 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $154,014 Assessed: $146,981 Taxable: $146,981 Land: $128,443 Building: $17,023 Total Property Tax Revenue: $2,423 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $294
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Exhibit 4.2(8) – Study Area Vacant Commercial & Commercial & Another Parcels Inventory
Sources: Lee County Property Appraiser, 2015 TRIM; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area – Vacant Commercial & Commercial & Another Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 22 Total land area (acres): 24.79 Total Property Tax Values (2015) Market Value (Just): $1,356,249 Assessed: $1,334,058 Taxable: $1,321,225 Land: $1,281,456 Building: $0 Total Property Tax Revenue: $21,681 Property Tax Revenue per Acre: $874
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Exhibit 4.3(1) – Study Area Market Value Differential 2015/2016 – All Parcels
Sources: Lee County Development Code; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area Total – All Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 280 Total land area (acres): 195.15 Just 2015: $56,727,861 Just: 2016 (Est.): $70,228,240 Market Value Differential 2015/2016 24% Actual Gain in Market Value 2015/2016 $13,500,379 Market Value Gain Per Acre 2015/2016 $69,178
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Exhibit 4.3(2) – Study Area Market Value Differential < 25% 2015/2016 – All Parcels
Sources: Lee County Development Code; ESRI ArcGis 10.4
Study Area Total – All Parcels Inventory Number of parcels: 214 Total land area (acres): 115.41 Market Value (Just) 2015: $35,079,289 Market Value (Just) 2016 (Est.): $37,333,666 Market Value Differential 2015/2016 6% Actual Gain in Market Value 2015/2016 $2,254,377 Market Value Gain Per Acre 2015/2016 $19,534
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TASK FIVE – SWOT(T) ANALYSIS
Approach to Methodology
To clearly identify key drivers for success in revitalizing the North Fort Myers Study Area, DCG Corplan has employed the use of the SWOT(T) Analysis as an effective tool for harnessing the brain trust of business and community leaders, stakeholders, and public officials to present their respective views of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to Study Area revitalization. A parallel examination of emerging trends in similarly situated communities within the region or nationally provides insight into potential solutions. SWOT(T) draws on preceding activities to organize and structure personal observation, opinion‐based recommendations, and empirical data. Tasks, One, Two and Three all provide input necessary for completion of this evaluation. The perceived strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, once concretized in a SWOT(T) Analysis Summary, provides an organized view of Study Area issues, drivers, and the potential for revitalization meeting expectations of community stakeholders including investors. The TOWS (Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses, Strengths) Analysis is used to support strategies evolved from the analyses. The SWOT(T) analysis is prepared in three main steps. Phase one of the SWOT Analysis involved information gathering. DCG Corplan recorded all recognized Study Area strengths referenced by interview and survey participants. Phase two identified opportunities referenced by participants for improving the Study Area. These opportunities were generally recognized by participants. Phase Three involved devising from phases one and two the basis of a potential action plan for improving conditions leading to greater vitality in the study area.
Key Findings
Study Area’s major Strength categories are its Location, Nearby Facilities, Resources and Accessibility Major Weaknesses include Transit, Economic Sustainability, Community Image, and Regulatory issues
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Opportunities are related to Transportation, Regulatory, Incentives, and Marketing solutions Main Threats are Water Quality Issues, Building/Infrastructure Quality, Traffic and Mobility, and Housing Quality issues Trends focus on Growth, Built Environment, Regulatory Issues, Transportation/Transit issues, and Incentives TOWS matrix compares Internal positive and negative (Strengths and Weaknesses) against External positive and negative (Opportunities and Threats) to develop strategies for implementation Strength‐Opportunity Strategies: o Focus on Lee County’s role in stimulating investor/developer interest. o Prepare an investment prospectus that offers regulatory and financial incentives Strength‐Threats Strategies: o Focus on tactics designed to arrest common perceptions and issues that have historically served as disincentives o Develop a comprehensive infrastructure strategy to support commercial and residential development o Lee County Government’s continued support of local and regional strategies relating to water quality should be pronounced in the context of an overall redevelopment plan Weakness – Opportunity Strategies: o Focus on strategies that will capitalize on high traffic by creating better opportunities for commuters to access local businesses along the corridor (increased signalization, elevated pedestrian causeway, etc.) Weakness – Threats Strategies: o Identify both obvious, as well as subliminal issues that negatively impact the success of many small businesses along the Highway 41 Corridors o Lee County support of property aggregation in the Study Area, including judicious use of eminent domain takings for transportation or waterfront/environmental reclamation o Achieving race/ethnic diversification to result in a more upwardly mobile population in the Study Area o Reduce blighted areas such as Cabana City by encouraging more home ownership, reducing migrant or temporary rentals, and relocating the mobile home parks from the Study Area
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Amend current zoning ordinances to: o Address site development issues surrounding vacant properties o Facilitate property aggregation o Improve access to and parking on commercial properties along US Highway 41 corridors o Provide wide‐ranging implementation of the Commercial Planned Development Zone in the Study Area Enforce current statutes requiring maintenance of vacant properties Create a new waterfront zone to facilitate new residential and commercial development (building height and density) Create a new community redevelopment agency to focus on North Fort Myers redevelopment issues: o Public‐private partnership with local lenders to create an investment fund capable if use in property acquisitions for site assemblages o Formulate a strategy for creation of low‐cost mortgages for Cabana City renters to purchase properties that are currently being rented o Investigate Lee County‐owned properties that may be utilized in like‐kind exchanges or property swaps with Study Area businesses such as mobile home park operators Investigate use of targeted incentives aimed at attraction of developer interest in the Study Area: o Tax abatements o Tax Increment Financing (TIF) o PILOT (Payment in Lieu of Taxes) Establish a land bank of acquired properties for future redevelopment o Incentivize property owners to sell land to land bank at discounted or “Just” appraised values in exchange for equity positions in future developments o Investigate “crowd funding” opportunities from Lee County residents to fund land bank operating account Recognize aging population characteristics, low median income levels and limited expenditure patterns of NFM residents in market assumptions Consider development of public‐use open spaces, especially near the waterfront, as needed components in creating a “sense of place” for the Study Area
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Task 5.1 – SWOT(T) Analysis
Phase One – SWOT
Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats and Trends (SWOT(T)) Analysis summarizes the assessment of the North Fort Myers Study Area as perceived through the lens of business and community stakeholders in Lee County. The individuals who contributed to the collective viewpoints of this assessment included land‐use attorneys, real estate brokers, public officials, business owners, and other stakeholders. Typically, SWOT(T) participants are smaller groups by comparison to poll survey participants. That is the case for this group. There were 33 total participants interviewed. DCG Corplan’s objective, in line with Lee County Government’s direction and purpose, was to identify options to proactively stimulate revitalization of the North Fort Myers Study Area. (Refer to Task Two for additional reference on interviewees). DCG Corplan’s premise is that land‐use attorneys, real estate brokers, property owners and business owners are collectively predisposed to the nuances of business investment and regulatory issues. They understand the benefits and unique challenges to development. Ultimately, they share a common desire, with the larger population, for the community’s sustainable economic growth. The expansive general community survey (519 responses) also conducted by DCG Corplan helped to counter‐balance the SWOT(T) results. Interview questions asked of SWOT(T) participants included the following subjects: Types of projects in which the participants were engaged Projects planned in the Fort Myers‐Cape Coral area Familiarity specifically with North Fort Myers Study Area Involvement in public/private partnerships, or development projects involving simulated “partnerships between governmental entities and private developers. Mixed‐use development experience Sports/Recreation/Cultural development involvement Opinions on why the area has deteriorated Identification of obstacles impeding new development in the area Opinions on why businesses have failed in the Study Area Highlighting of the area’s strengths and opportunities Responsiveness to receiving further information on investment in the Study Area
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The above question subject areas were used to elicit perceptions of the North Fort Myers Study Area’s strengths and weaknesses, identify opportunities and threats, and to share their perspectives of trends occurring in the region, and how those trends potentially could impact the potential growth of NFM. Table 5.1 below presented identifies, thematically, impressions held by the interviewees and the Project Team about the Study Area and its potential for forward movement, or issues that may stymie that potential.
Table 5.1 – SWOT(T) Analysis Summary Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Waterfront location Bifurcating highways High traffic volumes River water quality Developable land Aggregated properties Few retail tenants to Poor building displace conditions Knowledgeable/experienced Class C shopping areas Properties generally Vacancies land‐use professionals meet current standards for development Current development Rate of Influx of new Untapped market for Poor infrastructure patterns flowing north from residents does not future development Naples justify developers risk Local attorneys tend to Special exceptions a Change schedule of uses Too much interest in focus on unincorporated major expense and time and grant special sports venues at areas investment for exceptions where expense of taxpayers developers needed Use of hearing examiners NFM land is not Government incentives Too many vacant for land‐use matters realistically priced for development properties Nearby Veterans No large employee base Increase height and Highway 41 businesses Administration Hospital exists to support density limitations struggle to survive businesses Nearby Army Reserve NFM needs a Trolley service from Closed retail spaces and Facility ‘destination’ south side of River, and deteriorated housing possibly water taxi Investor interest in NFM Highway 41 provides Adopt “new urbanism” Too much traffic is minimal access to for village concept of most‐often heard corridor businesses mixed use complaint developments Shell Factory & Nature Park Reputation as an Revise current zoning Lack of upscale provides a “family ‘unwelcoming’ laws and regulations residents is significant destination” for NFM community hurts image obstacle to of NFM redevelopment New “Zip Line” helps to Pre‐disposition to Focus on attracting High number of senior‐ stimulate business growth maintaining the status broader demographics aged residents quo to NFM Land and capacity for high‐ Public attitude prevents Focus on attracting new Fewer “millennials” and rise development exists public officials from small businesses working‐aged persons forwarding viable plans catering to NFM residents
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Numerous developers with Not enough public Develop an awareness Low median income mixed‐use development investment in NFM to campaign to inform and levels of NFM residents experience stimulate private attract visitors investment /consumers All college graduates’ NFM market is too soft Great potential to Low sports and leisure growth rate expand the area’s tax expenditure patterns base Single‐family and duplex Many existing homes High‐end residential type housing growth rate are homesteaded units should be seen as making it difficult to extension of transition to more development on south upscale properties side of River 10 ‐19‐unit type housing Lack of discernible arts Many developers and growth rate or cultural drivers attorneys would review NFM investment prospectus County household size growth rate higher than State average
Strengths “Location” is North Fort Myers’ greatest natural asset, overall: Waterfront sites Current development patterns flowing north Developable land Land and capacity for high‐rise development
“Facilities” that help to draw people are community assets exists: Nearby Veterans Administration Hospital Nearby Army Reserve Facility Shell Factory & Nature Park destination site
“Resources” to facilitate proper growth are available: Potential investors/developers Knowledgeable and experienced land‐use professionals, i.e., attorneys, planners, in the area Hearing examiners with strong backgrounds in land‐use laws and regulations
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“Accessibility”: New “Zip Line” potential to help stimulate growth along bisecting corridors Current development patterns flowing north from Naples High‐rise development along the Caloosahatchee Riverfront
Weaknesses “Transit” is identified as a common issue for new development along north‐south highways in NFM: Bifurcating highways Highway 41 provides minimal access to corridor businesses
“Economic Sustainability” is strongly related to people movement through major north‐south corridors: Class “C” shopping areas Aggregated properties present a challenge to investors NFM needs a ‘destination’ Not enough public investment to stimulate private investment NFM market is too soft Land in NFM is not realistically priced for market
“Community image” deters new investors, tenants and residents: Rate of new residents’ influx does not support investment Reputation as an ‘unwelcoming’ community hurts image of NFM Perceived pre‐disposition to maintaining the status quo serves as a deterrent to investors Public attitude prevents public officials from forwarding viable plans for growth No discernible arts or cultural drivers within the immediate area
“Regulatory” issues prevent development: Special exceptions a major expense and time investment for developers Zoning regulations that make it difficult for any type of development in North Fort Myers
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Opportunities “Transit/transportation” corridor issues should be addressed by authorities: Take advantage of high traffic volumes through NFM Implement plans for trolley service from south side of River
“Regulatory” solutions supporting development: Change schedules of uses and grant special exceptions where needed Increase height and density limitations that inhibit cost‐effective investments Adopt new urbanism principles for village development Revise current zoning laws and regulations as necessary to encourage development
“Incentives” to encourage investment: Make available government “value‐added” incentives to encourage development Offer inducements focused on expanding the future tax base of NFM
“Marketing” campaign to ensure messaging around Study Area redevelopment is broadcast effectively: Promote Study Area as an untapped market being readied for future development Promote properties that generally meet current standards for development Adopt initiative to retain compliant retail tenants in NFM to mitigate mass displacements Develop awareness campaign to attract visitors and consumers to NFM Focus on attracting new small businesses catering to NFM residents Focus on attracting a broader population demographic to NFM Establish arts or cultural amenities
Threats “Environmental issues” must be addressed to ensure high quality of life in NFM: River quality Poor and unsightly building conditions Too many vacant properties in poor condition
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“Quality of buildings and community infrastructure” pose a major threat to NFM recovery: High number of vacant buildings with code compliance issues Generally poor community infrastructure Closed retail spaces and deteriorated housing
“Transit/Traffic/Mobility issues” discourage development: Too much traffic is most often heard complaint of NFM residents Highway 41 Corridors commercial businesses struggle to survive
“Quality of Housing” is lacking on a broad scale: Lack of upscale residents is significant obstacle to redevelopment High number of renters in Cabana City and inadequate number of home owners Mobile home parks do not help to promote the area
Trends Analysis (T)
Growth
There is good news for Lee County and Southwest Florida in general. According to MarketWatch 201618, Southwest Florida’s Cape‐Coral‐Fort Myers metro area in Lee County is listed among the top five locales in the U.S. in growth. Quoting Florida Trend Magazine19 (June 2016), “Lee County is growing by nearly 1,000 people a month, and is gradually diversifying its economic base to accommodate them.” At that population growth rate, Lee County should reach 720,000 people by 2020. This growth rate puts the County among the fastest growing locations in the U.S. The demographics indicate that millennials represent the fastest growing segment in Lee County. Economic developers in the region are targeting companies that require knowledge workers in such areas as advanced‐component manufacturing, aircraft instrumentation, financial services, back office support, and corporate headquarters Currently, 25.4% of Lee County residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. Although the State of Florida (26.7%) and U.S. (29.3%) have higher percentages of knowledge workers by comparison, Lee County is taking
18 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these‐five‐areas‐of‐the‐us‐are‐adding‐jobs‐faster‐than‐anywhere‐else‐ 2016‐06‐08 19 http://www.floridatrend.com/magazine/2016/june
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Built Environment
Lee County’s growth sets the stage for understanding how overall regional success can provide beneficial markers for the success of North Fort Myers, as part of the County and the region. The assumption is that the prevailing forces that shaped real estate development in Lee County and Southwest Florida potentially could spill over into North Fort Myers given appropriate inducements for real estate property owners and investors. Public agencies may play a significant role in supporting redevelopment in areas, such as NFM, where the quality of housing, supportive facilities, and infrastructure is lacking, market attraction is low, or non‐ existent.
Based on SWOT(T) responses, North Fort Myers is geographically well‐positioned for growth. Waterfront locations and developable land, and development patterns in Southwest Florida appear to favor possibilities. However, the current rate of new resident influx, bifurcating highways, class C shopping areas, and lack of a large employee base to support businesses stand out as impediments to potential developers.
The PricewaterhouseCoopers – Urban Land Institute’s publication, Emerging Trends in Real Estate – United States and Canada 201520, seem to suggest that NFM could benefit from the demand for housing at various levels, access to employment centers, at affordable prices will continue to be attractive to both boomers and millennials. Boomers are staying in their employment fields longer, while downsizing residents, and millennials are attracted to urban lifestyles. Per the study, both Boomers and Millennials care about the physical attributes of the built environment. They are disheartened by community obsolescence. The Price‐ULI study says, “[t]hey care about physical supports such as transportation infrastructure, the power and communications grids, and in a significant part of the nation, water.”
20 http://uli.org/emerging‐trends/emerging‐trends‐real‐estate‐2015‐united‐states‐canada/
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Regulatory Issues
By most measures popularly used to assess the successes of communities that are riding the wave of popularity due to outstanding growth indicators, Southwest Florida communities, including Lee County, specifically, have performed well. Yet, when polled via SWOT(T) interviews about the Study Area, several referred to the area as an “untapped market for future development”. DCG Corplan found consensus among interviewees in several key areas relating to regulatory issues:
High Level Priority Medium Level Priority Lower Level Priority 1. Work with FDOT to improve access 1. Consider public investments 1. Create a campaign to re‐image to corridor businesses along Highway for stimulating private Study Area as a ‘welcoming 41 Business. investment. destination’. 2. Develop plan to facilitate the 2. Implement plans for trolley 2. Focus on attracting new small aggregation of properties that service from the south side of businesses catering to NFM currently present a challenge to River, particularly the residents. potential investors. downtown Fort Myers area. 3. Address regulatory issues that 3. Create a “value‐added” 3. Encourage “upscale” housing prevent or deter development, incentive program to along the waterfront to attract including eliminating current height encourage development. higher income residents to NFM. and density limitations. 4. Create a community 4. Adopt Duany new urbanism 4. Eliminate “slum and blighted” redevelopment agency for the Study principles for “village” conditions in targeted areas of Area to facilitate County‐approved development in the target NFM. revitalization strategies. study area of NFM. 5. Create a major attraction, i.e., 5. Encourage a water taxi to 5. Continue to link water quality waterfront amphitheater, to induce move people from downtown to the prosperity indicators for visitors to come to NFM. Fort Myers to NFM as an the long‐term vitality of NFM. extension of their “downtown” entertainment experience. 6. Establish a waterfront zone on the southern end of the Study Area.
Generally, properties were believed to meet current standards for development. However, included among comments by respondents was the expressed need for a change in schedule of uses, and granting special exceptions where needed by potential real estate investors and developers. Also, interviewees believed that increasing height and density limitations would help to encourage investment and development.
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The trend for emerging communities addressing similar issues, i.e., City of Winter Park, Florida in 2013, is to coordinate and work on a continuing basis to develop specific comprehensive policies and land development code regulations to encourage economic growth. Like southwest Florida (Fort Myers/Naples), Winter Park has continuously attracted growth in population, only without the benefit of a Greater Orlando which hubs central Florida and is the catalyst for growth in most of its surrounding communities. A key priority for the City of Winter Park following its study of specific policy and regulatory issues that community stakeholders addressed was a strategy for “comprehensive plan policies and land development code regulations on economic development in the city”. (City of Winter Park Analysis if Potential Policy and Regulatory Impediments to Economic Development, September 2, 2013. WRT) Nearby Manatee County’s recent efforts to revitalize its commercial corridor relies on significant relaxation of development standards to encourage housing and commercial development. Although approaching the issue cautiously, County leaders are seeking to loosen development density restrictions to “allow bigger and better things to happen”. (Herald‐Tribune article – Manatee County Gives Boost to Urban Redevelopment, June 9, 2016). The focus is on giving property owners greater flexibility. The County is seeking to attract baby boomers and millennials, so developers need greater flexibility.
Transportation/Transit Issues
Interviewees often cited high traffic volumes along Highway 41 and Business 41, the main north‐south corridors traversing the Study Area, as a potential benefit and deterrent to business growth. Focusing on ways to beneficially enhance the area by making access to local businesses and establishments easier and efficient should be a high‐level goal. Developing strategies to address transportation corridor issues, particularly when there are jurisdictional protocols and responsibilities can be a complex undertaking. However, it should be noted that Florida is considered a testbed for strategies to overcome highway travel/transit congestion to manage traffic conditions that serve as impediments to urban area growth. This appears to be an emerging trend. That is, Florida communities are forming partnerships with Florida Departments of Transportation to develop strategies to ameliorate current traffic conditions seen to inhibit local development. For the Study Area, Lee County may evolve
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Incentives Inducements to encourage economic growth has been a staple method of attracting new capital investment to communities. Incentives for job creation also helps to ensure that workers will live in or nearby the place where they are employed, and the community benefits from local retail spending, and the enhanced tax residual from property and sales tax generated by new residents and “captive” workers. Leveraging existing incentives such as the State of Florida’s Qualitied Target Industry tax refund or Lee County’s Job Opportunity Program or low‐interest industrial revenue bonds can be beneficial for employers. Community Redevelopment Agencies (CRA) such as in Downtown Fort Myers are proven vehicle for area revitalization, but implementation of a CRA in North Fort Myers is projected to encounter some public resistance. An alternative method is the establishment of a Community Development Corporation (CDC), composed of public and local business entities. Per Community‐wealth.org18, Community Development Corporations (CDCs) are nonprofit, community‐based organizations focused on revitalizing the areas in which they are located, typically low‐income, underserved neighborhoods that have experienced significant disinvestment. CDCs play a critical role in building community wealth for they anchor capital in communities by developing residential and commercial property, ranging from affordable housing to shopping centers and even businesses. Other agency possibilities include a Business Improvement District (BID) which could be used to forge partnerships between the County, property owners, waterfront businesses and community organizations. In the Study Area, a pro‐active incentive program will be required along with marketing the existing properties to attract investment interest. This will require “packaging” or assembly of vacant and underutilized land parcels and coordination with existing property owners to consider re‐purposing of their holdings which have been to date unmarketable.
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Absorption of development and impact fees, lower cost financing, and condemnation and re‐ marketing of assembled parcels are part of the incentivized activities that a local CDC can provide.
Task 5.2 – SWOT(T) Strategies
Phase Two To effectively utilize the SWOT(T) Analysis, the DCG Corplan Team utilized the TOWS (Threats, Opportunities, Weaknesses, Strengths) Analysis to support the creation of actionable strategies in harmony with the North Fort Myers Market Assessment. Table 5.2 below is a visual guide for establishing a more refined strategic plan offering greater focus than the broad strategies provided under this market assessment. It should constitute the next phase of strategic actions taken by Lee County Government.
Table 5.2 – TOWS Strategies Matrix OPPORTUNITIES THREATS (EXTERNAL, POSITIVE) (EXTERNAL, NEGATIVE)
STRENGTHS STRENGTHS – OPPORTUNITY STRENGTH‐THREATS (INTERNAL POSITIVE) STRATEGIES STRATEGIES 1. Waterfront location 1. Attract and encourage 1. Develop specific tactics 2. Developable land investors/developers to build designed to address common 3. Investor/Developer interest and expand commercial and perceptions and issues that 4. Knowledge‐base (land‐use residential properties on and discourage investment in professionals) near the Caloosahatchee River Study Area. 5. High population growth rate in North Fort Myers. 2. Produce short and long‐range 2. Produce new ‘urbanism for plans addressing poor village’ concept(s) suggesting infrastructure particularly themes for potential those plans that will foster developers for mixed use. potential commercial and 3. Produce a prospectus residential development in outlining potential investment the next five to ten‐year opportunities in North Fort period. Myers that can be 3. Continue support of meaningfully supported by stakeholders’ actionable Lee County Government, framework for improving other public entities, and regional water quality. development finance (Caloosahatchee River Basin) agencies.
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WEAKNESSES WEAKNESS‐OPPORTUNITY WEAKNESS‐THREATS (INTERNAL, NEGATIVE) STRATEGIES STRATEGIES 1. Class C shopping areas in NFM 1. Produce plans to take 1. Conduct a commercial 2. Aggregated properties advantage of high traffic business vacancy study for 3. Rate of population influx volumes along Highway 41 Highway 41 Corridors to arterials through NFM by determine if commercial providing greater, safe access revitalizations strategies using to commercial tools to encourage and establishments. eliminate barriers could be 2. Review “special exceptions” in effectively deployed to Lee County’s development increase vacancy rates, code to determine if particularly for small modifications may be businesses. necessary and appropriate to 2. Address, comprehensively, a modify or eliminate to broad‐based strategy to help encourage development. facilitate property 3. Structure incentives for aggregation to support development based on an development. acceptable return on 3. Develop plan to increase investment principle for Lee racial/ethnic diversification of County officials and taxpayers. NFM including upscale 4. Encourage more home residential and affordable ownership in Cabana City and housing in NFM. relocate mobile home parks.
This method for developing refined strategies for action involves pairing the SWOT elements as follows: Strengths – Opportunities Strengths – Threats Weaknesses – Opportunities Weaknesses ‐ Threats Using this approach allows Lee County officials to move fluidly from SWOT analysis to strategies in a manner that will drive towards effective execution of a Study Area Action Plan. The following summarizes focus and nuances of the SWOT Strategies presented using the method presented above: Strengths Key strengths identified. Internal positive focus on waterfront location, developable land, investor/developer interest, the knowledge‐base of land‐use professionals (public and private sectors), and high population growth rate.
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Strength‐Opportunity Strategies: o Focus on Lee County’s role in stimulating investor/developer interest in Study Area by fostering development concepts and themes that will appeal to a broader consumer market for commercial and residential uses, including the arts o A prospectus produced by Lee County would showcase potential investment opportunities and outline public inducements available ‐‐ inducements would include regulatory and financial incentives
Strength – Threats Strategies: o Focus on tactics designed to arrest common perceptions and issues that have historically served as disincentives, leaving potential investors discouraged about prospects in NFM, and then moving on to other more appealing Southwest Florida development opportunities o The current state of Study Area infrastructure requires a comprehensive strategy to support commercial and residential development o Lee County Government’s continued support of local and regional strategies relating to water quality should be pronounced in the context of an overall redevelopment plan Weaknesses Several notable weaknesses attributed to the current state of conditions in the Study Area are tied to organic growth and decline factors that may not necessarily change in either direction based solely on actions by local governments Weakness – Opportunity Strategies: o High traffic volumes along Highway 41 arterials through the Study Area create both positive and negative impacts on the area. Yet, Lee County may focus on strategies that will capitalize on high traffic by creating better opportunities for commuters to access local businesses along the corridor (increased signalization, elevated pedestrian causeway, etc.). Weakness – Threats Strategies: o Identify both obvious, as well as subliminal issues that negatively impact the success of many small businesses along the Highway 41 Corridors may lead to solutions that can be addressed successfully by local government working together with Florida Department of Transportation officials.
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o Local government can be an effective, and balanced force in supporting property aggregation in the Study Area, including judicious use of eminent domain takings o Achieving race/ethnic diversification leading towards a more upwardly mobile population in NFM is the result of organic forces at work. Job opportunities within the region, a range of housing costs, transportation, and amenities all drive diversification. The strategy offered here focuses on a balance between upscale and affordable housing, transportation, retail and consumer services. Blighted areas such as Cabana City can be rectified by encouraging more home ownership, reducing migrant or temporary rentals, and relocating the mobile home parks from the Study Area.
Task 5.3 – SWOT(T) Conclusions and Recommendations
Phase Three SWOT Analyses, as devised, provide an opportunity for affirmative steps to improve present conditions. This form of analytics is mainly used as a tool by businesses, organizations and communities for identifying strengths and weaknesses, understanding threats, and envisioning opportunities for improvement. Key Strategies Land Use and Zoning Land Use controls: o Zoning ordinance amendments intended to: . (1) address site development issues surrounding vacant properties . (2) facilitate property aggregation. . (3) to improve access to and parking on commercial properties along US Highway 41 corridor o Wide ‐ranging implementation of a flexible land use ordinance in the Study Area Enforcement: o Enforce current statutes requiring maintenance of vacant properties Development: o Create a new waterfront zone to facilitate new residential and commercial development (building height and density)
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Organizational Structures Create a new community redevelopment agency to focus on North Fort Myers redevelopment issues: o Public‐private partnership with local lenders to create an investment fund capable if use in property acquisitions for site assemblages o Formulate a strategy for creation of low‐cost mortgages for Cabana City renters to purchase properties that are currently being rented o Investigate Lee County‐owned properties that may be utilized in like‐kind exchanges or property swaps with Study Area businesses such as mobile home park operators Investigate use of targeted incentives aimed at attraction of developer interest in the Study Area: o Tax abatements o Tax Increment Financing (TIF) o PILOT (Payment in Lieu of Taxes) Establish a land bank of acquired properties for future redevelopment o Incentivize property owners to sell land to land bank at discounted or “Just” appraised values in exchange for equity positions in future developments o Investigate “crowd funding” opportunities from Lee County residents to fund land bank operating account Development Strategies Recognize aging population characteristics, low median income levels and limited expenditure patterns of NFM residents in market assumptions Consider development of public‐use open spaces, especially near the waterfront, as needed components in creating a “sense of place” for the Study Area
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TASK SIX – ESTIMATE EXISTING AND POTENTIAL FUTURE UNMET DEMAND FOR HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL SPACE IN THE MARKET AREA AND OBTAINABLE CAPTURE OR PENETRATION RATES
Approach to Methodology
In this Task, various drivers for real estate demand are reviewed by unmet or capture rates expectations. Topics for review include: Residential o For sale (single family, condominium and townhouses). o For rent (apartments). Retail Lodging Office/Workplace Sports/Recreational/Cultural Mixed‐Use Review of the North Fort Myers Market Area performance in each of these areas and a projection of impact on the Study Area is generated. Forecast of space absorption are accompanied by pro form calculation of a typical investment scenario related to each topic.
Key Findings
Residential NFM‐MA should be absorbing 1,031 new housing units per year based on population growth New annual construction of 664 for‐sale units and 367 rental units will meet demand By building permit, single family is most commonly built housing type in NFM‐MA There is an unmet need for 20+ unit buildings Weighted average price of a new dwelling in the NFM‐MA is $162,186 in current dollars
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Two‐bedroom apartment is the most common rental type in the NFM‐MA Weighted average price for new rental unit is $902 per month The Study Area should be able to capture 412 units of for‐sale housing and 220 units of rental housing per year if available real estate can support development A 200‐condominium mid‐rise project located on a former mobile home park should be able to produce a 20.6% profit margin and be considered as a viable development opportunity
Commercial/Retail Uses Retail Sales Based on average 5‐, 10‐and 15‐minute drive time trading areas, the NFM‐MA should be able to support 18,000 SF of new retail space The Study Area should be able to capture 100% of this demand Leading categories for retail/ food service capture are: o Clothing stores o Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages o Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores o Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores o Other general merchandise stores o Shoe stores o Book stores & news dealers An 18,0000 SF strip retail center in the Study Area on a 1.1‐acre site should be able to be rented for $14.000 PSF (NNN) and produce a financially viable 18.4% profit margin A 75,000 SF neighborhood shopping center would not produce achievable results unless anchor tenant rent was raised well above local market capability Lodging A 123‐room business hotel on 3 acres of land would be considered as a demand filler if a new office space is added to the Study Area This project would produce a RevPar of $91 per night and result in a viable 21.7% profit margin
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Office/Workplace Job forecasts for the NFM‐MA indicate a growth of 1,359 persons yearly New employment in targeted industries would produce a three‐year demand for over 8,151 new jobs in the NFM‐MA At a 25% capture rate, the Study Area could support as much as 323,000 SF of new commercial space New class “A” office space rental rates would be about $19.50 PSF “Flex” style wholesaling space would command a $10.00 PSF asking rent A 100,000 SF professional office park on a 5.3‐acre lot in the Study Area with highway frontage should produce a 24.7% profit margin A 50,000 SF “flex” building on a 3.0‐acre site should result in a 17.1% profit margin
Sports/Recreational/Cultural
Most popular NFM‐MA land ‐based recreational activities are walking, jogging, bicycling, and hiking Easily accessible water‐oriented pursuits include swimming, fishing, boating and kayaking Gun and bow target shooting represents a primary activity (exceeds State of Florida in participation by percent of households) for the NFM‐MA Lee County is an established center for sports and recreational activities and numerous venues can support the sports culture within the County For most NFM‐MA residents, sports venues are within easy reach by automobile NFM‐MA lags both Lee County and the State of Florida in spending categories for sports/recreational/cultural activities A partially retrofitted vacant shopping center could support an indoor shooting range with a 19.8% profit margin An 1,800‐seat County‐owned amphitheater developed in a waterfront park would approach break‐even after the fifth year of operation
Mixed Use Large mixed‐used developments typically require higher land use density Housing absorption of 790 housing units is projected over a fifteen‐month period
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A density of 25 units per acre is about the highest acceptable land use, which would require a site of 32 acres The project would likely be considered as an all rental building Retail absorption for this type of project can be comfortable estimated at 75% of total Study Area demand, which equals 13,500 SF Lodging is not included in the model A projection of 33% of total Study Area office demand, i.e., 108,000 SF A 32‐site would require assemblage from vacant or underutilized parcels, incurring significant land costs estimated at $500,000 per acre At the $902 average rental rate and retail and office rents maintained at levels suggested above, the project fails and incurs a $56 million loss Manipulation of rental price points through sensitivity analysis results in a required $1,500 monthly average rent to produce a 20.0% profit margin Required rental rates for profitability are beyond the NFM‐MA capability, unless rental subsidies are provided to the developer Reducing land acquisition costs or changing mix of uses does little to achieve profitability Mixed‐use projects are too expensive for the Study Area
Task 6.1 – Residential
Housing Demand
From Task 3, annual population growth in the 60‐census tract NFM Market Area (NFM‐MA) was calculated at about 1.0%, resulting in a forecast of about 11,000 new residents in the area by yr. 2020 over the 2016 estimate21. While new household formation was declining in the 2010‐2014 period, some turn around should be anticipated for 2020 that somewhat parallels population gain. Utilizing the 2014 NFM‐MA person per household figure of 2.64 as a constant (no new increase), population growth should equate to 4,124 new households in the NFM Market Area from 2016‐2020. Annually, this translates to the absorption of 1,031 housing units per year.
21 Task 3 utilizes the 2014‐2020 figure of 16,178 as population gain. At 0.97% annual growth rate, the NFM‐MA for 2016 is estimated at 276,725, or 5,289 persons greater than the 2014 estimate of 271,436. Net 2016‐2020 estimate results in 10,889 new residents.
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For planning uses, the 2014 ratio will be held constant (no further declines), and therefore the next four years should see an annual demand of 664 owner units and 367 rental units per year in the NFM Market Area.
Building Permits
Table 6.1(1) tracks residential building permits by housing type for the cumulative year‐to‐ date (June) for the 2010‐2016 period. The greatest number of permits issued were for Single Family houses (80%), followed by 5+ family units (14%).
Table 6.1(1) – Lee County Building Permits by Type 2010‐2016 Single 2‐ 3 & 4 5+ Constr. Family Family family Family Total Value Year # of Units (000’s) 2016 2,103 40 120 356 2,619 $646,017 2015 2,065 18 92 1,399 3,574 $670,310 2014 1,532 42 84 617 2,275 $458,514 2013 1,243 38 60 170 1,511 $319,250 2012 938 20 40 52 1,050 $232,904 2011 699 0 24 11 734 $152,768 2010 690 8 12 53 763 $139,542 Annual Average 1,324 24 62 380 1,789 $374,186 Avg. # of Units / Structure 1.0 2.0 3.9 13.7 1.3 $209
Source: US Census Building Permits by County, Lee County 2010‐2016
The average per unit construction cost for all Lee County building types was $209,109 as averaged across all years and not adjusting for inflation. Ranking of average values shows the following:
# of Housing Units Avg. Constr. Housing Type Permitted Value 2010‐2016 Single family 1,324 $232,872 5+ family 380 $134,177 3 + 4 family 62 $204,212 2 family 24 $94,680 Lee County total 1,789 $374,186
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Given that the Study Area falls between the cities of Fort Myers and Cape Coral, each of these two municipalities’ building permit data was also evaluated. Fort Myers produced 23% of the total six‐year building permit average and had an average construction value of $214,160. The greatest number of total Lee County permits issued were for Single Family houses (17%), followed by 5+ family units (4%). For Cape Coral, these figures were 18% and $214,995, respectively. Virtually all permits were issued for Single Family residences. Interestingly, for Fort Myers, the ranking shows this trend:
# of Housing Units Avg. Constr. Housing Type Permitted Value 2010‐2016 Single family 309 $228,236 5+ family 76 $149,081 3 + 4 family 18 $249,406 2 family 1 $197,834 Fort Myers Total 404 $214,160
And, for Cape Coral this result is produced:
# of Housing Units Avg. Constr. Housing Type Permitted Value 2010‐2016 Single family 323 $216,648 2 family 3 $82,415 3 + 4 family 1 $46,500 5+ family 0 $0 Cape Coral Total 327 $214,995
There were no 5+ family projects granted permits in the past six years in Cape Coral, but in review of all cases, increasing housing density generally appears to favor lower per unit costs. Sales market The sales housing market in the NFM‐Market Area is soft but somewhat improving. The homeowner segment had a 2014 vacancy rate of 4.1%, down from 6.6% in 2010, a 38% improvement. Lee County had a 34% improvement, gaining two points in the same period (3.8% from 5.8%). In comparison, the State of Florida saw only a 25% gain (3% from 4%). Per the Multiple Listing Service/Steelbridge Realty figures quoted in Task 4, sales volume for 2016/2015 in North Fort Myers (not the NFM Market Area) has declined by a modest 0.2%,
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 201 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT whereas County‐wide sales are off by almost 12 percent. The 2016 North Fort Myers was 474 units sold, and the year‐to‐date comparison in 2015 was 475 sales. Table 6.1(2) below compares the distribution of housing types in the NFM Market Area against the State of Florida and the correlation index indicates that both 1‐unit attached and 20+ unit buildings are in shorter supply. This equates to demand for townhouses and mid‐ to high‐rise buildings.
Table 6.1(2) – Housing Types in the North Fort Myers Market Area NFM Market State of Correlation Housing Type Area 2014 Florida 2014 Index 1‐unit detached 53.38% 54.20% 98.5 1‐unit attached 5.39% 6.30% 85.6 2 units (duplex) 3.45% 2.20% 156.9 3‐4 units 3.68% 3.80% 96.8 5‐9 units 4.94% 5.00% 98.7 10‐19 units 7.23% 5.90% 122.6 20+ units 9.18% 13.30% 69.0 Mobile home 12.64% 9.20% 137.4 Boat, RV, Van 0.11% 0.10% 111.2 Total 100.00% 100.00% Sources: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐2014); Table B25004 (2010‐2014)
As developed in Task 3.2.13, weighted averaging of housing for in the NFM‐MA is $159,950 with CPI Inflation22 is applied, is $162,186 in current dollars. In comparison, inflation adjusted Lee County and State of Florida values are $228,722 and $224,361, respectively. Stepping back a year, the 2015 NFM‐MA home would be worth $159,739. Developable land in the Study Area for large single family or attached‐unit lots is quite limited, thereby forcing housing a more concentrated approach toward housing development. Townhouse, low‐rise and mid‐rise options are the most closely aligned price points to the North Fort Myers average from Table 6.1(3) below.
22 http://data.bls.gov/cgi‐bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=156070&year1=2014&year2=2016
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Table 6.1(3) – Calculated and Projected North Fort Myer Housing Price Points by Housing Type North Fort Myers 2015 Lee 2015 2018 Housing Type County Calculated Projected Single Family $308,771 $183,476 $190,888 Villa Attached $202,540 $120,352 $125,214 Townhouse $192,705 $114,508 $119,134 Low Rise (1‐3) $214,218 $127,291 $132,434 Mid‐Rise (4‐7) $266,064 $158,099 $164,486 High Rise (8+) $544,941 $323,811 $336,893 All $268,825 $159,739 $166,193 North Fort Myers Factor 0.59 Source: Multiple Listing Services/Steelbridge Realty 2015
For the estimated 664 per year homeowner units, distribution by the 2014 housing value segment from Task 3 is shown below:
Table 6.1(4) – Homeowner Units of Demand NFM‐MA Housing Price Range 2014 Percent of Units of From To Total Demand $0 $49,999 16.7% 111 $50,000 $99,999 26.0% 173 $100,000 $149,999 19.3% 128 $150,000 $199,999 14.5% 96 $200,000 $299,999 14.0% 93 $300,000 $499,999 7.0% 46 $500,000 $999,999 2.2% 14 $1,000,000+ 0.5% 3 Total New Homeowner Units 100.0% 664 Source: US Census Bureau, American FactFinder, Table DP04 (2010‐ 2014)
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Rental Market
Table 6.1(5) below details the NFM Market Area rental market by number of bedroom, monthly gross rent, and segmented units of demand.
Table 6.1(5) – NFM‐MA Renters Unit of Demand by # of Bedrooms & Monthly Gross Rent 2016 Monthly Gross Rent Wghtd. Avg. Less Monthly than $500 to $750 to Gross # of Bedrooms $500 $749 $999 $1,000+ Total Rent Studio Percent of Total 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.9% Units of Demand 1 2 1 2 7 $839 One Bedroom Percent of Total 2.9% 7.0% 3.1% 1.9% 15.0% Units of Demand 11 26 12 7 55 $712 Two Bedroom Percent of Total 3.8% 11.7% 18.4% 8.2% 42.1% Units of Demand 14 43 67 30 154 $841 Three+ Bedrooms Percent of Total 3.5% 3.4% 9.7% 24.4% 41.0% Units of Demand 13 13 36 90 150 $1,038 Total Units of Demand 38 83 116 129 367 $902 Source: US Census Bureau, American Factfinder 2014, Table B25068
The projected annual absorption of 367 rental units produces a ranked order of preference for rental housing by number of bedrooms as follows. Weighted average gross rent by would be $902 per month (2016), and $938 by a project completion time in 2018:
Wghtd. Avg. Mnthly. Wghtd. Avg. Mnthly. Bedroom Type Units of Demand Rent 2016 Projected Rent 2018 Two Bedroom 154 $841 $873 Three+ Bedrooms 150 $1,038 $741 One Bedroom 55 $712 $875 Studio 7 $839 $1,079 Total 367 $902 $938
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NFM Study Area Capture The preceding analysis suggests that the NFM Market Area could annually absorb 664 for sale housing units and 367 rental units. In a five‐year planning environment, this might mean as many as 5,155 total residential units. What does this mean for the Study Area? And, what is the capture rate for new residential development? As shown in Table 6.1(4), over 60% (412) of the 664 for sale housing units demand is priced below $150,000. The 412 units of owned real estate annual demand plus perhaps as much as 60% (220 units) of rental demand represents the Study Area’s potential annual capture. This translates into a total residential demand of 632 housing units each year. In Task 4, the total vacant residential land totaled 25 parcels covering 8.2 acres. Cabana’s City vacancies accounted for 2.7 acres in 17 parcels, resulting in about 1/6th of an acre on average for each parcel. The remaining 8 parcels cover 5.6 acres but are widely scattered offering little assemblage potential. A planning standard of 25 units per acre for mid‐rise multi‐family is an acceptable development program. But, in order to satisfy even a single year’s demand of 632 units at 25 units/acre would require 25 acres of vacant land which the Study Area does not have. Re‐purposing existing properties at least similar in use is perhaps the only means suitable for the project area. Two current mobile home parks in the Study Area cover 10.4 acres and could be able to provide a housing site more beneficial for the revitalization effort. If one of these properties could be re‐positioned as a multi‐family mid‐rise site, possibly in combination with a vacant commercial parcel, then a unique opportunity for housing development could emerge. A 200‐unit project is presented in the Investment Scenario section below as representative of such a viable residential development project.
Investment Scenario
Appendix Table 6.1(1) provides a pro forma model of a 200‐unit mid‐rise condominium project on an eight‐acre site valued at $500,000 per acre which would cover relocation costs of present businesses. A fifty‐month development schedule is anticipated for a total of 200 condominium apartment units selling at a market rate price of $158,000 per unit. A total of 300 covered parking spaces are sold as well as 50 storage units. Average unit size is 800 sf, and 10% (20) units are discounted at 40% as affordable housing selling for $94,800 ($146
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PSF). About ten percent (18 units) pre‐sold at a 10% discount ($178 PSF) with the remaining 162 units selling at market rate ($198 PSF). Overall development costs and debt service come to $26.2 million, or $131,102 per unit. Total sales proceeds would produce a net figure of $7.1 million (pre‐tax), or an 20.55% profit margin. The multiple of invested equity would be 1.78, and the project would be considered as quite viable.
Task 6.2 – Commercial/Retail Uses
6.2.1 ‐‐ Retail Sales As described in Task 3.1 (Consumer Spending), the identification of the NFM Retail Trading Area (NFM‐RTA) was the fifteen‐minute drive‐time polygon (refer to Exhibit 6.2.1). MarketPlace profile reports were purchased from ESRI for this study with five‐minute, ten‐ minute, and fifteen‐minute drive polygons ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute) ESRI’s Retail MarketPlace Profiles are well‐respected sources of consumer retail activity and have been utilized in this section. Thirty‐one NAICS retail and food services categories used in the analysis are shown in Table 6.2.1(1) below:
Table 6.2.1(1) – Retail and Food Services Categories NAICS Description 4411 Automobile dealers 4412 Other motor vehicle dealers 4413 Automotive parts, accessories, and tire stores 4421 Furniture stores 4422 Home furnishings stores 4431 Electronics and appliance stores 4441 Building material and supplies dealers 4442 Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores 4451 Grocery stores 4452 Specialty food stores 4453 Beer, wine, and liquor stores 4461 Health and personal care stores 4471 Gasoline stations
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4481 Clothing stores 4482 Shoe stores 4483 Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods stores 4511 Sporting goods, hobby, and musical instrument stores 4512 Book stores and news dealers 4521 Department stores 4529 Other general merchandise stores 4531 Florists 4532 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores 4533 Used merchandise stores 4539 Other miscellaneous store retailers 4541 Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order 4542 Vending Machine Operators 4543 Direct Selling Establishments 7221 Full‐Service Restaurants 7222 Limited‐Service Eating Places 7223 Special Food Services 7224 Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
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Exhibit 6.2.1 (1) – NFM Retail Trading Area 5‐minute, 10‐minute, & 15‐ minute Drive times (Recap of Exhibit 3.1.3)
Source: ESRI ArcMap 10.4
Retail Leakage/Gap Analysis
By examining the three drive time scenarios, a picture emerges of the NFM‐RTA’s relative strength and demand for additional retail space. Three retail leakage/gap analyses tables are presented in the Appendix (Tables 6.2.1a‐c) which detail performance by the 31 retail and food service categories. The retail trade area capture and demand for additional space are presented. Sales volume per square foot of retail category has been obtained from the Urban Land Institute’s publication Dollars and Cents of Shopping Centers and adjusted for inflation.
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Table 6.2.1(1) summaries the Appendix capture calculations. The NFM‐RTA’s market strength varies from $373 million to $3.8 billion in the three travel scenarios, and averages $1.9 billion. Unmet demand ranges from $28.8 million to $38.2 million, or an average of $32.9 million. Projected space demand ranges from 7,000 SF to 38,200 SF, with an average of 18,000 SF.
Table 6.2.1(1) – Summary of 5‐min, 10‐min. and 15‐min. Drive Time Retail Leakage/Gap Analysis 5‐Minute 10‐Minute 15‐Minute Drive time Drive time Drive time Average Overall NFM‐RTA Market Strength 2015 $372,500,000 $1,437,500,000 $3,767,000,000 $1,859,000,000 Unmet NFM‐RTA Potential Sales 2015 $38,200,000 $28,780,000 $31,790,000 $32,923,333 Potential NFM‐RTA Retail Space Demand 2015 38,200 SF 7,000 SF 8,800 SF 18,000 SF Sources: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profile, DCG Corplan
Table 6.2.1(2) compares resulting retail and food services recommendations from the retail leakage/gap analysis:
Table 6.2.1(2) – Summary of 5‐min, 10‐min. and 15‐min. Drive Time Retail Recommendations 5‐Minute Drive time 10‐Minute Drive time 15‐Minute Drive time Automobile dealers Book stores & news dealers Book stores & news dealers Book stores & news dealers Building material and supplies dealers Clothing stores Clothing stores Direct Selling Establishments Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order* Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order* Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order* Electronics & appliance stores Furniture stores Gasoline stations* Home furnishings stores Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores Lawn & garden equipment & supplies Lawn & garden equipment & stores supplies stores Other general merchandise stores Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores Shoe stores
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Special Food Services* Vending Machine Operators* Source: * Industries that have none or an unquantifiable retail footprint.
Recommended Retail Summary From the table above, the following retail categories represent Primary recommendations based on commonality of drive times: Book stores & news dealers Electronic Shopping & Mail‐Order*
Secondary choices are as follows: Clothing stores Lawn & garden equipment & supplies stores
And, tertiary selections are as follows: Automobile dealers Building material and supplies dealers Direct Selling Establishments Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages Electronics & appliance stores Furniture stores Gasoline stations* Home furnishings stores Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores Other general merchandise stores Shoe stores Vending Machine Operators*
With an average demand for 18,000 sf of retail space, opportunity for new retail development in the Study Area is limited. From the Leakage/Gap analysis, it is clear that footprints of recommended retail are generally small, so therefore, the blue highlighted retail categories from above represent stores or food services that most often have smaller space requirements. These seven categories are, in DCG Corplan’s opinion, the best choices for
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 210 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT implementation of any successful retail development for the Study Area. Recapping, these seven are: Book stores & news dealers Clothing stores Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores Other general merchandise stores Shoe stores
Investment Scenarios Strip‐Style Center A strip‐style shopping center is an open‐air center in the range of between 5,000 SF to about 100,000 SF. The stores are arranged in a row, with a sidewalk and parking areas in front. Appendix Table 6.2.1(d) provides a pro forma model of the 18,000 SF of Study Area retail in a strip shopping center on a 1.1‐acre site valued a $125,000 per acre. An eighteen‐month development schedule is anticipated and the rental price point is $14.00 PSF NNN (triple net). Overall development costs and debt service come to $2.9 million. Parking would be provided for 90 spots (4 per 1,000 SF). The project would require twelve months’ post construction to reach 95% occupancy. Selling the property one year after reaching stabilized occupancy would produce a net figure of about $692,000 (pre‐tax), or an 18.4% profit margin. The multiple of invested equity would be 1.68, and the project would be considered as viable.
Neighborhood Shopping Center A neighborhood shopping complex is constructed around a supermarket and/or drug store as the only anchor tenant(s) and provides for the sale of convenience goods and personal services for the day‐to‐ day living needs of the immediate neighborhood. The gross leasable area typically ranges from 30,000 SF to 150,000 SF. This example will be a 75,000 SF neighborhood shopping center on 4.6 acres of land valued at $175,000 per acre. Given that the strip center from the preceding example would entirely satisfy the Study Area demand, a higher vacancy figure of 15% will be used in the calculation. Higher rental figures will be quoted for an anchor tenant ($20.00 PSF NNN) of 15,000 SF and the same $14.00 PSF NNN for
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 211 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT smaller stores (60,000 SF). A slightly higher construction cost and tenant allowance will be used for a better quality building. Parking would be provided for 375 spots (4 per 1,000 SF). Appendix Table 6.2.1(2) provides pro forma model of the 75,000 SF facility. A twenty‐seven ‐ month development schedule is anticipated and eighteen months is estimated to reach 85% occupancy. Lack of further demand is anticipated to keep the shopping center at this vacancy level. Overall development costs and debt service come to $15.9 million. A distressed property sale is envisioned in the fifth year, resulting in a $850,000 loss. To reach a reasonable profitability at the sale point (1.50 equity multiple at a minimum), the rental rate for the anchor tenant would have to be initially quoted at $26.00 PSF and the smaller store rents would need to be increased by $3.00 PSF ($17.00 PSF) prices which are generally beyond the reach of this market area. It is clear that a new neighborhood shopping center is not a viable prospect for the Study Area, especially with the evident failures of the current properties. Power Center A typical Power Center is an unenclosed shopping center in the range of 250,000 sq. ft. to 600,000 sq. ft. of gross leasable area. Power Centers usually contains three or more big box retailers and various smaller retailers (with a common parking area. Given that the Study Area has been proven as incapable of sustaining such an investment, a pro forma analysis of this type of retail investment is unwarranted and therefore excluded.
6.2.2 ‐‐ Lodging In Task 4, lodging was explored based on rooms per acre as a measure of demand of the 13 active and one inactive Fort Myers area hotel properties. While this is an imprecise market evaluation, the poor performance of lodging properties in the Study Area indicates that tourism traffic is just not prevalent. However, business drivers for hotel demand could be created by development of offices and educational facilities within the Study Area. This would translate into weeknight room demand and conference space use. The average lot area of the investigated hotel properties was about 3 acres resulting in a ratio of 41 rooms per acre. When reviewing this list again for conference/meeting space, 11 properties with on‐site conference space produce an average of 17 sf per room as a ratio:
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# of Conference Hotel Rooms Space SF La Quinta Airport 73 760 Four Points‐Sheraton 110 1,200 Homewood Suites ‐ Airport & Hilton Garden Inn ‐ Airport 297 4,829 Courtyard ‐ Marriott 137 1,294 Hampton Inn ‐ Airport 87 858 Springhill Suites ‐ Airport 106 161 Holiday Inn ‐ Airport 169 6,800 Hampton Inn & Suites 102 858 Hilton Garden Inn 126 4,750 Hyatt Place ‐ Forum 148 2,000 Total 1,355 23,510 Average Conference Space SF /Room 17.4
A new four‐story hotel facility in the Study Area on 3 acres of land would be possibly configured as 123 rooms and 2,135 SF of conference space. At a nominal standard of 16 SF per person for banquet‐style seating, this would accommodate 133 people, or 100 persons in classroom‐style for a meeting (20 SF/person). Receptions would be more compact at 10 SF per person, thereby supporting 235 persons for a cocktail party. At present, meeting space in North Fort Myers is somewhat limited to the North Fort Myers Recreation Center and some local restaurants. Larger and more plentiful event space is available across the river in Fort Myers, especially the Harborside Event Center (30,000 SF) and the Riverside Community Center (3,000 SF). Unique halls such as the Burroughs Home & Garden are especially suitable to special events and weddings.
Investment Scenario Appendix Table 6.2.2(1) provides pro forma model of a 123‐room hotel on a three‐acre site valued at $200,000 per acre. A twenty‐seven‐month development schedule is anticipated and within seven months’ operations the Stabilized Average Daily Room Rate of $140 produces a RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) of $91 per night. The total building is 65,340 SF in size and in a four‐story configuration. Overall development costs and debt service is $23.6 million, or about $192,000 per key (room). A total conference/meeting area would be 2,350
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SF and a fitness center/spa would be 1,640 SF. Parking would be provided for 172 spots (1.4 per room). At stabilized occupancy, a sale would produce a net proceeds of $6.9 million (pre‐tax), or a 21.7% profit margin. The multiple of invested equity would be 1.73, and the project would be considered as viable.
Task 6.3 – Office/Workplace Uses
In Task 3.3, a target industry/location quotient analysis projected a total of 8,150 new jobs for the NFM Market Area in eight industry sectors likely to be created within the yrs. 2014‐2020 period. Recapping, these target industries from Table 3.3(2) are as follows. By year, this total is 1,359 annually, and a three‐year target (2017‐2020) would equal 4,077 jobs:
New Jobs Yrs. New Jobs Target Industry 2014‐ 2020 Avg. Per Yr. Educational Services 1,793 299 Wholesale Trade 1,173 196 Public Administration 1,089 182 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,298 216 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,687 281 Management of Companies and Enterprises 236 39 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 491 82 Accommodation and Food Services 384 64 Total 8,151 1,359
Capture Rate and Effects of Competition While some of the 60 census blocks of the NFM‐MA are within the City of Fort Myers, it must be recognized that employment centers draw workers to locations of opportunity, rarely restricting commutation unless by unusual geographic impediments. In the case of the Study Area, the Caloosahatchee River should not be considered as a constraint for employee draw as it somewhat poses for retail shoppers. New employees can be effectively recruited to the Study Area from both Fort Myers and Cape Coral, as well as North Fort Myers. A new business center development in the Study Area could be considered as direct competition for downtown Fort Myers. However, lower land costs and opportunity for larger parcel assemblage in the Study Area can provide a different commercial character, one that is
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 214 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT more conducive for low‐ and mid‐rise buildings and with more open space and amenities than downtown sites. Without new office development in the Study Area, the bulk of new space would likely be constructed in the City of Fort Myers. From the Task 2 survey (question #10), the 65% response rate regarding the advantage of a new office center in the Study Area as a possible intercept location for commutation into Fort Myers suggests the likely success of new office development in the study area. A precise capture rate for new office/commercial development in the Study Area would depend on absorption patterns of comparable class “A” properties, assembled and pre‐ permitted development land, and local office employment growth, none of which is prevalent. But, a reasonable assumption is that perhaps as much as 25% of new office demand of the NFM Market Area could be accommodated in the Study Area if suitably developed. While It is anticipated that this space inventory will take time to evolve, a catalyst project could provide the impetus, especially noting that there is no Class “A” office space in NFM.
Forecasting Space Needs Based on industry standards for occupancy by building type23 and from data collected by DCG Corplan, the eight target industry sectors provide average occupancy figures as follows:
SF per Target Industry Emply. Educational Services 450 Wholesale Trade 350 Public Administration 200 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 200 Health Care and Social Assistance 150 Management of Companies and Enterprises 200 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 200 Accommodation and Food Services 1,300
23 US Dept. of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of National Building Stock; http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/46861.pdf
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Using the above occupancy standards, and utilizing a 25% capture rate for three year’s employment growth expectations for the NFM Market Area (2017‐2020), a conservative estimate of 323,000 SF new office/commercial space demand for the Study Area is shown in Table 6.3(1) below:
Table 6.3(1) Capture of New Office/Commercial Space Demand in Study Area by Employment and Space SF 25% Capture Rate Est. Office / Space # of new Commercial Use Per Captured Space Needs Target Industry Emp. SF Employees SF Educational Services 450 224 101,000 Wholesale Trade 350 147 51,000 Public Administration 200 136 27,000 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 200 162 32,000 Health Care and Social Assistance 150 211 32,000 Management of Companies & Enterprises 200 30 6,000 Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 200 61 12,000 Accommodation and Food Services 1,300 48 62,000 Total Capture 1,019 323,000 Sources: US Dept. of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of National Building Stock; DCG Corplan
Allocating Acreage In Task 4, vacant Study Area commercial parcels totaled 18 in number and covered 21.43 acres. At a Floor‐Area‐Ratio (FAR) of about 0.4, the total available commercial acreage could support a maximum of about 420,000 SF of 4‐story class “A” office space. The 323,000 SF from Table 6.3(1) above would require 16.5 acres in the same story height and FAR. Unlike splintered vacant residential properties, vacant commercial acreage is cohesive. The largest assemblage potential is currently on the north side of Hancock Bridge Parkway where 9.8 combined acres are in four contiguous parcels. This assembled area could support up to about 185,000 SF of office space, a sizable portion of the overall projected demand. Existing office and professional buildings already from the roadway in this area so the addition of a new office park would be a logical addition.
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Investment Scenarios Office Park Appendix Table 6.3(1) provides a ten‐year pro forma model of a class “A” three‐story 100,000 SF office park (multiple buildings) on a 5.3‐acre site valued at $125,000 per acre. A twenty‐ four‐month development schedule is anticipated and then additional eighteen months expected to reach Stabilized occupancy. Average annual rent would be $19.50 PSF (gross). Parking would be provided for 500 cars. Overall development costs and debt service are calculated to be $13.9 million, or $139 per gross square foot. A sale in the fifth year would produce a net figure of $4.8 million (pre‐tax), or an 24.7% profit margin. The multiple of invested equity would be 1.99, and the project would be considered as viable. Flex‐Type Wholesale Modern wholesaling is more a means of connecting businesses and individual rather than bulk storage and distribution of products. A mix of office space with some assembly or working space is often suited to the “flex” type of industrial building. For technology or health care products, these facilities are often state‐of‐the‐art buildings. Appendix Table 6.3(2) provides a pro forma model of 50,000 SF of “flex” space” on a 3.0‐acre site valued at $100,000 per acre. A twenty‐month development schedule is anticipated and plus anther twelve months to obtain Stabilized occupancy. Average annual rent would be $10.00 PSF (gross). Parking would be provided for 125 cars. Overall development costs and debt service are calculated to be $3.5 million, or $72 per gross square foot. A sale in the fourth year would produce a net figure of about $776,000 (pre‐tax), or an 17.1% profit margin. The multiple of invested equity would be 1.62, and the project would be considered as viable.
Task 6.4 – Sports/Recreational/Cultural Uses
6.4.1 Sports/Recreation Uses In Task 3.2, a review of consumer spending revealed several primary and secondary sports/recreational opportunities where NFM‐RTA residents exceeded (P) or where within the
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90th percentile (S) of State averages. Table 6.4.1(1) below recaps the 33 activities analyzed in Task 3.2 (Refer to Appendix Table 3.2.18). The table is not additive as multiple categories may be addressed simultaneously.
Table 6.4.1(1) NFM‐RTA Households Recreational Activity by percent % of Est. # of State of FL Activity Households Households Correlation Rank Walking for exercise 24.5% 25,192 Secondary 1 Swimming 14.2% 14,601 Secondary 2 Fishing (fresh water) 11.7% 12,031 Primary 3 Jogging/running 9.4% 9,666 4 Bowling 8.5% 8,740 Secondary 5 Golf 8.2% 8,432 6 Bicycling (road) 8.2% 8,432 7 Weight lifting 8.1% 8,329 8 Hiking 7.6% 7,815 9 Basketball 7.6% 7,815 Secondary 10 Aerobics 7.4% 7,609 Secondary 11 Yoga 5.6% 5,758 12 Boating (power) 4.9% 5,038 Secondary 13 Canoeing/kayaking 4.8% 4,936 Secondary 14 Target shooting 4.6% 4,730 Primary 15 Baseball 4.6% 4,730 Primary 16 Hunting with rifle 4.4% 4,524 Primary 17 Football 4.3% 4,422 18 Fishing (salt water) 4.3% 4,422 Primary 19 Frisbee 3.5% 3,599 20 Hunting with shotgun 3.5% 3,599 Primary 21 Tennis 3.3% 3,393 22 Bicycling (mountain) 3.3% 3,393 23 Softball 3.2% 3,290 Secondary 24 Soccer 3.1% 3,188 25 Volleyball 3.0% 3,085 Secondary 26 Motorcycling 2.7% 2,776 Secondary 27 Archery 2.6% 2,673 Primary 28 Backpacking 2.4% 2,468 29 Pilates 2.3% 2,365 30 Skiing (downhill) 2.1% 2,159 31
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Horseback riding 2.1% 2,159 Secondary 32 Ice skating 1.8% 1,851 33 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
From the above table, several land‐based activities are among the most popular among NFM‐ RTA households, notably walking, jogging, bicycling, and hiking. Easily accessible water‐ oriented pursuits include swimming, fishing, boating and kayaking. For more organized sports, which require fields, or developed facilities such as baseball, softball, soccer and volleyball, these appear to engage fewer households and rank 22nd, 24th, 25th and 26th, respectively. Target shooting, by gun or bow, would meet a desired objective for the Study Area as evidenced by the Primary correlations, although given the existing density, the facility would need to be of an indoor type for safety reasons. The development in the Study Area of a multi‐function health club/bowling alley/indoor golf range/tennis center would likely satisfy many of the desired leisure activities that NFM‐RTA residents now enjoy. Nationally, sports/recreation‐oriented renovation of vacant retail facilities have resulted in many successful projects, illustrated by a few examples below: Collinwood Recreation Center (Cleveland, OH – former Big Lots). Wonder Falls Amusement Center & Indoor Water Park (Niagara Falls, NY – former Rainbow Center Mall). Hauntfest amusement (Milwaukee, WI – former Kmart store). The Arena – indoor soccer training facility (former Kmart, Paramus, NJ). AP23 Youth Sports Complex (former Rolling Acres mall, Akron, OH).
Review of Lee County Sports/Recreational Facilities Recommendation of a sustainable sports use for the Study Area must first be evaluated through evaluation of competing facilities. A review of Lee County sports venues indicates that a wide variety of facilities are available to house organized sports events: Hammond Stadium at CenturyLink Sports Complex (Minnesota Twins; 9,300 seating; 94‐acre) o Baseball (5 fields) o Softball JetBlue Park (Boston Red Sox; 10,000 seating; 105‐acre) o Baseball
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o Soccer (6 full‐size fields) o LaCrosse o Rugby o Field Hockey Germain Arena (8,200 seating; 3 rinks/multi‐purpose areas) o Ice Hockey o Inline Hockey o Figure skating o Gymnastics City of Palms & Player Development Complex (8,200 seating) o Baseball (5 fields) o Softball (400 seating) Terry Park (3,300 seating) o Baseball (4 fields) o Soccer Alico Arena (FGCU; 4,500 seating) o Basketball o Volleyball o Gymnastics o Martial Arts Suncoast Credit Union Arena (FSW ‐ under construction) Legacy Equestrian Center (North Fort Myers; 35‐acre) o Equestrian training & exhibition
Lee County public parks also provide ample recreation opportunities: Bonita Springs Soccer Complex o 4 fields o Playground Cape Coral Sports Complex (52‐acre; 14 lighted athletic fields) o Baseball (4 fields) o Softball (5 fields) o Soccer (5 fields) o LaCrosse Jim Jeffers Soccer Complex (19‐acres) o 5 fields
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o Softball field o Tennis courts o Basketball court o Mega playground Pelican Soccer Complex o 4 fields Sam Fleishman Soccer Complex o 3 baseball fields o 3 softball fields o 10 tennis courts o Swimming pool Gateway Soccer Complex o 5 multi‐use fields o Playground Kelly Road Soccer Complex o 6 fields o Baseball field o Tennis courts o Basketball courts Three Oaks Park o 3 baseball fields o Batting cages o Bull pens o 3 multi‐use fields o Beach volleyball courts o Basketball courts o Tennis courts o Handball courts Lehigh Community Park o 2 softball fields o 4 multi‐use fields o Running track o Basketball courts o Tennis courts Veterans Park Recreation
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o 2 softball fields o 5 multi‐use fields o Running track o Basketball courts o Tennis courts o Skate park o Recreation/fitness center Wa‐Ke Hatchee Recreation Center o 2 multi‐use fields o Basketball court o Running track o Recretion/fitness center North Fort Myers Recreation Center o Baseball (4 fields) o Football (2 fields) o Practice field o Gymnasium o Basketball o Pickleball o Volleyball
Public swimming pools are located throughout the County: Fort Myers Aquatic Center Lee County/FGCU Aquatics Center Lehigh Acres Community Pool North Fort Myers Community Pool Pine Island Community Pool San Carlos Community Pool
Other Lee County locations such as high schools and colleges offer a wide range of sports facilities. Per the Florida Sports Foundation24, major annual/seasonal sports events hosted in Lee County include the following:
24 Florida Sports Foundation Directory 2016‐2017; http://floridasports.uberflip.com/i/656524‐201617‐florida‐ sports‐directory‐facilities‐guide
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USA Swimming Open Water North American Roller YBOA Boys State National Championships Hockey Championships Championships USA Baseball Junior Olympic AAU Baseball National FL State Bowling Tournament Championships Assoc. Championships USA Volleyball Southern AAU Girls’ Basketball Florida Senior Games Regional Championships National Championships US Sailing Junior Olympic Roy Hobbs Baseball Regatta World Series Senior Softball USA Winter Gene Cusic Collegiate Nationals Classic
Clearly, Lee County is an established center for sports and recreational activities and numerous venues can support the sports culture within the County, especially for the active “snowbird” tourism population. For the more locally‐desired activities such as bowling, golf, and shooting, private facilities are scattered throughout the region, but somewhat more concentrated in Fort Myers and more easterly areas such as Lehigh Acres. For most NFM‐RTA residents, sports venues are within easy reach by automobile. Market Indicators An indicator of the relevance of sports and recreational activities to a local population can be illustrated by household expenditure on sports and recreation equipment. Using the ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles25, three categories of annual consumer sports/recreation equipment spending are analyzed: $1‐$99; $100‐$249; and, $250 and above. As shown below, NFM‐RTA lags both Lee County and the State of Florida in all three categories, but the $1‐$99 sector produces the highest correlation. This index indicates that the lowest level of equipment spending has the highest probability of sustainability for the Study Area.
Correlation NFM‐ State of Index to Household Leisure Expenditures last 12 months RTA % FL % St of FL Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $1‐$99 5.6% 5.8% 96.6 Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $100‐ $249 5.4% 6.0% 90.0 Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $250+ 5.8% 6.8% 85.3 Total 16.8% 18.6% 90.3 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles 2015
25 ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
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Lee Correlation County Index to Household Leisure Expenditures last 12 months NFM‐RTA % % Lee County Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $1‐ $99 5.6% 6.0% 93.3 Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $100‐ $249 5.4% 6.0% 90.0 Spent on sports/recreational equipment: $250+ 5.8% 6.9% 84.1 Total 16.8% 18.9% 88.9 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles 2015
To reinforce this spending pattern, Table 6.4.1(2) below compares average consumer expenditures on leisure activities for the NFM‐RTA, Lee County and the State of Florida. The NFM‐RTA lags both the County and State in every category, demonstrating the overall lack of spending power for the NFM‐RTA which in most cases is about 25% lower than the State’s average and 28% less than Lee County.
Table 6.4.1(2) Comparison of Average Leisure Expenditures in last 12 months Consumer Expenditures last 12 months NFM‐RTA Lee County State of FL Entertainment & Recreation (all categories) $2,056.77 $2,803.75 $2,641.49 Fees & Admission $378.37 $529.78 $505.91 Fees for Participant Sports, excluding travel $62.61 $88.50 $82.64 Tickets to Theatre/Opera/Concerts $34.66 $48.64 $46.40 Tickets to Movies/Museums/Parks $45.73 $61.48 $60.18 Admission to Sporting Events, excluding travel $34.59 $47.31 $46.50 Fees for Recreational Lessons $74.55 $104.67 $104.26 Recreational Vehicles and Fees $71.30 $100.43 $93.93 Sports/Recreation/Exercise Equipment $111.84 $153.25 $146.01 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
The above data comparisons inevitably lead to the conclusion that the most sustainable sports and recreational activities for the Study Area will be those that do not incur high cost of entry such as expensive equipment and/or fees. Sporting uses as occupancy drivers for vacant buildings may be a realizable solution for the Study Area if they can be accomplished affordably and user fees/admission costs are not prohibitive.
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Construction of a new sports/recreation facility in the Study Area would require the assemblage of land parcels suitable to accommodate indoor or outdoor facilities, concessions, meeting space, parking, and expansion space. On the other hand, conversion of a vacant “big box” retail facility could be facilitated by present owners or by leased operators. Possible reuse options requiring limited rehabilitation expenses include but are not limited to the following: Indoor go kart racing Indoor laser tag/paint ball Indoor soccer Indoor shooting range/archery range Indoor gymnastics Indoor rock climbing Indoor electronic golf ranges
Investment Scenario As an example of a financial analysis for an indoor shooting range, Appendix Table 6.4.1(1) provides a 3‐year pro forma of an indoor shooting range. The facility is 25,000 SF and is located within an existing vacant retail building. Rental would be discounted to a modest $9.00 PSF. Total development costs would be $2.15 million for the leasehold including retail gun sales inventory and display. The range would employ seven persons and revenue would be based on 850 users per month plus gun storage fees. Profit margins before taxes in year three would be 19.8% and the project would be considered as viable.
6.4.2 Cultural Uses In revisiting Appendix Table 3.2.18, the following are the ten NFM‐RTA cultural activities participated by households in the last twelve months.
NFM‐ Cultural Activity by Households in last 12 months RTA % Movie 55.7% Dining out 40.6% Theater performance 11.2% Zoo 9.1% Museum 8.7%
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Music performance ‐ Rock 7.8% Art gallery 6.1% Music performance ‐ Country 5.1% Dance performance 3.9% Music performance ‐ Classical/opera 3.5% Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
In comparison to the State of Florida, the correlation indices below indicate how rock and country music performances are Primary matches for the NFM‐RTA. Movies, dining out, and dance performances are Secondary correlations to the State (90th percentile and above).
Correlation NFM‐ State of Index to Household Leisure Activities last 12 months RTA % FL % St of FL Music performance ‐ Rock 7.8% 5.5% 141.8 Music performance ‐ Country 5.1% 4.2% 121.4 Movie 55.7% 58.9% 94.6 Dining out 40.6% 44.4% 91.4 Dance performance 3.9% 4.3% 90.7 Theater performance 11.2% 12.9% 86.8 Zoo 9.1% 10.6% 85.8 Art gallery 6.1% 7.3% 83.6 Museum 8.7% 11.3% 77.0 Music performance ‐ Classical/opera 3.5% 8.9% 39.3 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
There are no Primary matches for the comparison to Lee County, as shown below. However, zoo, movies, rock, dance and country performances are all considered as Secondary correlation matches, reinforcing their common appeal throughout the County.
Lee Correlation NFM‐ County Index to Household Leisure Activities last 12 months RTA % % Lee County Zoo 9.1% 9.3% 97.8 Movie 55.7% 58.0% 96.0 Music performance ‐ Rock 7.8% 8.2% 95.1 Dance performance 3.9% 4.1% 95.1
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Music performance ‐ Country 5.1% 5.6% 91.1 Dining out 40.6% 46.3% 87.7 Art gallery 6.1% 7.4% 82.4 Museum 8.7% 10.9% 79.8 Theater performance 11.2% 14.2% 78.9 Music performance ‐ Classical/opera 3.5% 4.5% 77.8 Source: ESRI Retail MarketPlace Profiles© 2015
As illustrated in Table 6.4.1(2) from the preceding section, annual ticket expenditures for cultural events by NFM‐RTA residents are significantly below both the Lee County and the State of Florida.
Correlation Index to Consumer Expenditures last 12 months NFM‐RTA Lee County Lee County Tickets to Theatre/Opera/Concerts $34.66 $48.64 71.3 Tickets to Movies/Museums/Parks $45.73 $61.48 74.4
Correlation Index to Consumer Expenditures last 12 months NFM‐RTA State of FL St of FL Tickets to Theatre/Opera/Concerts $34.66 $46.40 74.7 Tickets to Movies/Museums/Parks $45.73 $60.18 76.0
In planning a cultural development for the Study Area, the reality of this spending pattern is inescapable. While restaurants can vary in menu pricing variety depending on clientele, performance venues have difficulty in maintaining financial viability if ticket prices cannot balance fixed operational expenses. Lee County has several performance venues available for music and/or dance performances: Germain Area (8,200 seats) Lee Civic Center (7,800 seats) Alico Area (4,500 seats) Harborside Event Center (2,790 seats) Barbara Mann Performing Arts Hall (1,874 seats) Margaret Morrow Frizzell Amphitheater (1,500 seats)
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Sidney & Berne Davis Arts Center (538 seats) Broadway Palm Dinner Theater (468 seats) Florida Repertory Theater (394 seats) Foulds Theater (150 seats)
Museums in Lee County include the Bailey‐Matthews National Shell Museum, the Calusa Nature Center and Planetarium, the Edison and Ford Winter Estates, Gasparilla Island Lights, the Imaginarium Science Center, the Museum of the Islands, the Koreshan State Historic Site, the Murphy‐Burroughs House, and the Southwest Florida Museum of History. Several public and non‐profit art galleries are available in Lee County, including: Alliance for the Arts (Fort Myers) Art Council for Southwest Florida Co‐op Art Gallery (Estero) Art League of Fort Myers (Fort Myers) Arts for Act Gallery (Fort Myers) Bert’s Pine Bay Gallery (Matlacha Island) Big Arts (Sanibel) Cape Coral Arts League (Cape Coral) Cape Coral Arts Studio (Cape Coral) Center for Visual Arts (Bonita Springs) David Acevedo Union Arts Studio (Fort Myers) Florida Gulf Coast University Art Galleries (Fort Myers) Harbor View Art Gallery (Cape Coral) Islands Vision Gallery (Matlacha Island) Kathleen Bradford Studio (Bonita Springs) Ollie Mack gentry Photography (Fort Myers) Sanibel Captiva Art League (Sanibel) Southwest Florida Fine Craft Guild (Cape Coral) Timeless (Fort Myers) Tower Gallery (Sanibel) Two Newts Gallery (Fort Myers) Vino’s Picasso (Fort Myers)
The Lee County Alliance for the Arts indicates that the non‐profit arts and culture industry have an overall economic impact of over $68 million annually, producing 2,038 full‐time jobs
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 228 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT and generating more than $9.0 million in local and state revenues26. The County’s commitment to the arts, including planning and design is evident in the successful River District/First Street corridor of Downtown Fort Myers, as restaurants and entertainment venues continue to populate this revitalizing neighborhood. On the other hand, North Fort Myers, and especially the Study Area are notably lagging in arts investment. While the North Fort Myers Academy of the Arts is a magnet program for the arts and is rated “A” by SchoolRatings.com27, there does not appear to be any meaningful presence of museums, art galleries, performance venues in the Study Area. Evident from the above listing of art galleries, many of the Lee County arts institutions are more aligned with tourism locations which can capitalize on economic benefits largely unavailable to the NFM‐ MA. To counteract this trend, it is recommended that an arts environment be instituted in the Study Area that can help establish a “sense of place” though better signage and graphics, design, planning and public investment. The National Trust for Historic Preservation28 describes some basic methods for the enhancement of downtowns to establish a “sense of place”: Brick pavers to make sidewalks look more distinctive. Planters, flower baskets, and street trees to soften the environment and provide color and shade. Human‐scale street lights for enhanced aesthetics and illumination. Banners and flags to make the district look more festive and colorful. Benches to give people a place to sit, rest, watch what goes on around them. Decreased speed limits to promote safety. Public art such as murals and sculpture. Enhancing and providing open space. Establishing building design guidelines. Taking advantage of the waterfront.
26 Lee County Alliance for the Arts; http://www.artinlee.org/visit/about‐us/economic‐impact 27 Florida School Ratings; http://school‐ ratings.com/Florida/schools/North_Fort_Myers_Academy_For_The_Arts.html 28 Main Street America; National Trust for Historic Preservation; http://www.preservationnation.org/main‐ street/main‐street‐news/1999/09/enhancing‐downtowns‐sense‐of‐place.html
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For the Study Area, with deteriorating economic conditions, limited available open space and restricted access to the waterfront, it is clear that a public intercession is overdue. A revitalization effort that incorporates arts and culture to help establish a “sense of place” but without the burdening costs associated with major new development and high consumer expenditures required for financial viability leads to only one unalterable conclusion: the Study Area could benefit by a waterfront park. The National Trust establishes two important principles regarding effective downtown waterfronts: “The first is the need to provide clear pedestrian linkages between the commercial core often several blocks away and the water. This can be a challenge because buildings frequently turned their backs to rivers and waterways in the past; and over the years, downtowns have been cut off from the water by parking lots, railroad tracks, busy streets, and industrial buildings. The second, public access is essential. The design of waterfront buildings and open spaces, must make it easy to get to and view the water. Bangor, Maine, created a linear park on both sides of the Kenduskeag River, which splits the downtown in half. Seneca Falls, N.Y., constructed a waterfront park along its downtown canal and provided visible linkages, and Duluth, Minn., converted an abandoned industrial lakefront into a downtown lake walk with popular restaurants, hotels, and shops.” A most common suggestion drawn from the Task Two public survey was the need to include the Caloosahatchee Riverfront in the revitalization effort for the Study Area. Recommendations included amphitheater/park/open space, aquarium, bathing beach, bicycle/jogging paths, canoe/boat rentals, cultural/education center, public boat ramp, recreational fishing pier, and waterfront retail/entertainment (Refer to Appendix Table 2.b(6)). Recognizing the role of arts and culture in spurring economic development, the National Governors Association sponsored a study entitled “New Engines of Growth: Five Roles for Arts, Culture and Design”. The report notes that as technology sectors have shifted from basic engineering to the added values of innovative design and creative products, establishing a network of creative workers is vital to staying competitive.29 In Pasadena CA a public‐ private investment developed a band shell (Pasadana Pavilion) in a run‐down park that resulted in a community rebirth and creation of a nationally‐recognized music program.
29 National Governors Association; www.nga.org
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Successful band shell/amphitheater developments in Broward, Volusia, and other Florida counties are helping to broaden beach appeal and enhance local economies. A waterfront park in the Study Area represents a major public investment but one that could rapidly repay itself if a cultural amenity can generate even a modest revenue stream. For example, a music pavilion that is offered for rent, combined with food concessions and limited retail can provide the needed impetus to encourage nearby businesses to establish ancillary services (weekend hotel packages, catered dining services, special retail discounts, etc.). Direct, indirect and induced economic benefits are measured by this increase of overall business activity resulting from a specific investment.
Investment Scenario Inclusion of the amphitheater in this scenario assumes that the planned amphitheater at the Fort Myers’ Harborside Event center/Hotel may be delayed or not achieved at all. Siting of this facility in NFM represents a viable alternative to Harborside. Appendix Table 6.4.2(1) provides a 5‐year operating pro forma for a County‐owned amphitheater consisting of 1,800 fixed seats within a 12‐acre waterfront park setting. A total of 650 parking spaces would be required and the construction budget would be $6.7 million. Park development and annual debt service is excluded from the calculation. Based on first ‐year ticket sales at $10 per seat (increasing annually with inflation) and with an annual number of events increasing from 20 and occupancy raising from an initial level of 50%, the operating budget would approach break even after the fifth year.
Task 6.5 ‐‐ Mixed Use
Mixed‐use development is occurring throughout the nation, and produces buildings of vertically‐ or horizontally‐integrated housing, offices, lodging, retail, food service, entertainment and cultural uses. At times, industrial uses are also included, but less frequently integrated with living spaces, except for artists’ housing /loft or workspaces. In the preceding sections, single purpose investigations have been conducted. In this section, an attempt is made to forecast the capture of mixed‐use facilities in the Study Area. Recapping from before, the anticipated demand is as follows:
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Residential As discussed in Task 6.1, an annual demand of about 632 units of new housing (412 condominiums, 220 rental apartments) is forecasted for the Study Area. In the pro forma developed for this Task, a fifteen‐month post‐construction sales period for condominiums is suggested. Using inflation of annual demand (15/12 months), a need for a total of 515 condominiums and 275 rental apartments would be a reasonable estimate for the residential build‐out component of a mixed‐use development. For purposes of pro forma calculations, it will be assumed that all 790 housing units will be of the rental type. A model of a 2‐bedroom unit renting for $902 per month (2016 prices) will be used in the financial calculations. At 800 sf per unit, and with a common space coefficient of 25%, the total built‐out is 790,000 SF of housing.
Retail In Task 6.2(1), a total of 18,000 SF of retail is projected for the NFM‐RTA. It is reasonable to assume that a mixed‐use development could capture at least 75% of this demand (13,500 SF), leaving the balance of 25% to be absorbed by existing Study Area retailers. The $14.00 PSF retail rent quotation used in the strip center pro foam will be used again.
Lodging A 123‐room hotel would appear to be sustainable in the Study Area is a new business demand generator is created by development of new offices. The hotel could become part of the mixed‐use project, but is not included in the pro forma.
Offices Task 6.3 indicates an annual absorption estimate of 323,000 SF of commercial office space in the Study Area. This would likely be spread over several simultaneous sites, but an estimate of 33% of this office demand (108,000 sf) is probable for the mixed‐use development. The asking rent of $19.50 PSF used in the Task 6.3(1) will utilized in this example.
Summary A mixed‐use project that would capture the demand for housing, office and retail into a single development represents a somewhat difficult undertaking. The overall buildout is calculated at nearly 912,000 SF. This would likely mean a 5 to 7 story set of buildings on a master
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 232 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT planned site. At the maximum density of 25 units per acre, the residential land requirement would be 32 acres. To accomplish such a project, a land assemblage would be required of absorption of essentially all the vacant commercial property on either the east side or the west side of US 41, or perhaps by multiple assemblages. As shown in the following investment scenario, this type of project is dependent on achieving rental apartment price points currently beyond the reach of the market. Regardless of the mix of housing, retail or office uses, 4‐ or 5‐story buildings of mixed‐use configuration commonly emerging in many markets around the US appear simply to be too expensive to justify for the Study Area. However, a mixed‐use development could be developed if rental subsidies to the developer were provided by the County. In that way, revenue shortfalls required for project viability could be met. Nevertheless, in DCG Corplan’s view, the reliance on single‐use properties of lower cost is a preferable course of action over subsidization of this type of investment.
Investment Scenario Appendix Table 6.5(1) provides a pro forma of a mixed‐use facility on a total of 32 acres. Total build‐out is 912,000, retail space is 13,500 SF and office is 108,500 sf. A total of 790 rental units are built at an average size of 800 SF per unit, and average rent of $902 per month. A forty‐two‐month development schedule is anticipated and then additional twenty‐one months expected to reach Stabilized occupancy. Average annual office rent would be $19.50 PSF (gross) and $14.00 PSF for retail. Parking would be provided for 494 surface cars and 1,185 covered residential tenant cars. Land costs would be estimated at $500,000 per acre to accommodate and relocate existing businesses. Overall development costs and debt service are calculated to be $191.5 million, or $210 per gross square foot. A distressed property sale in the sixth year would produce a net loss of ‐$55.6 million (pre‐tax), The multiple of invested equity would be 0.17, and the project would be considered as a failure. Sensitivity variation of rental rates for apartments would, however, produce different results:
Avg. Monthly Rent Pre‐Tax Profit on Sale Profit Margin Multiple on Invested Equity $1,000 ‐$38.188 million ‐23.91% 0.43 $1,100 ‐$20.47 million ‐11.49% 0.69 $1,200 ‐$2.744 million ‐1.40% 0.96 $1,300 $14.978 million 6.96% 1.22
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$1,400 $32.700 million 14.00% 1.49 $1,500 $50.422 million 20.01% 1.75 $1,600 $68.144 million 25.20% 2.02
As shown above, the break‐even price point for is between $1,200 and $1,300 per month for a typical apartment, but for realistic profit expectations, the $1,500 per month price point would provide a pre‐tax profit margin above 20% which would probably be the most palatable for investors. From all previous research, apartments renting in this price range are currently beyond the expectations of the North Fort Myers market. For the NFM‐MA, median household income (2014) was $43,833, which equates to a $44,702 income in 2016 dollars. For a rental apartment, most landlords require 40 times income30, which would equal a maximum rental cost of $1,117 per month. To qualify for a $1,500 per month apartment, household income needs to be at least $60,000 per year. Assumptions of $500,000‐per acre land prices could be questioned; however, by maintaining the $1,500 rental rate and reducing land costs to $0, the profit margin only rises to 26.9% (2.11 multiple); pricing of units back at $902 per month only results in reducing the overall loss by about $17.5 million, proving that land costs are not the influencing factor. Given that a waterfront property might attract a wealthier user, the lack of available property excludes this option. Unless a major effort were initiated to acquire all existing waterfront or nearby residential parcels, including parts of Cabana City, the prospect appears untenable on its merit. The problem is that much more goes into a mixed‐use building: mechanical plant, plumbing distribution, fire protection system, electric room, freight elevators, emergency and maintenance stairways, and covered parking. This results in a higher base‐building cost, with rental housing in mixed‐use projects generally commanding higher rents31. As remarked by two local NFM‐area developers (Task 2 interviews), the failure rate of embedded retail in mixed‐use is quite high, making this a difficult challenge. The reality is that vertically‐integrated mixed‐use development in the North Fort Myers Study Area is not a viable avenue to pursue, unless subsidized. Even more limited projects on smaller lots does not alter the outcome.
30 http://www.nakedapartments.com/guides/nyc/beginning‐your‐search/calculate‐your‐maximum‐rent 31 Price Premiums and Mix‐Use Development, NAIOP 2009
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Task 7 – RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STUDY AREA REVITALIZATION
Conclusions and Recommendations
Recommendations Overview
Forecasting achievable revitalization strategies for the Study Area has required extensive review of the market dynamics as represented by the preceding Task sections. The data compiled has been useful in determining the types and quantities of sustainable development that the North Fort Market Area can support, and then narrowing that demand to the Study Area. Proactive governmental efforts in the areas of zoning, incentives, transportation and infrastructure investment, and promotion will be invaluable tools for making the revitalization vision a reality. At the same time, on‐going private sector transactions and marketing will continue, and some flexibility is required in coordinating these concurrent activities into a common outcome.
Summary of Key Demand Drivers
The following summary list indicates that local market dynamics are somewhat modest and that care must be given when evaluating the potential for successful development that does not over estimate market capabilities:
Item NFM‐MA Lee County Number of Households 102,826 246,061 Working‐Age Persons (16‐65 yrs.) 59% 83% Housing Tenure Mix – Homeowner to Renter 64%‐36% 69%‐31% House Value – Weighted Average calculate $159,550 $225,005 Weighted Average Hourly Earnings/hr. (2014) $14.84 $14.95 Median household income (2014) $43,833 $47,908
However, realistic and achievable Study Area real estate demand can be demonstrated despite the above constraints in the following areas:
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Housing 664 two‐bedroom condos 367 rental apartments Retail 18,000 SF strip‐style shopping o Book stores & news dealers o Clothing stores o Drinking Places ‐ Alcoholic Beverages o Jewelry, luggage, & leather goods stores o Office supplies, stationery, & gift stores o Other general merchandise stores o Shoe stores Lodging 123‐room business hotel Office/Workplace 323,000 SF office space Sports/recreational 25,000 SF indoor shooting range Cultural 1,800‐seat amphitheater (Note: presented as a site alternative to the proposed Harborside Event Center/Hotel development) Mixed‐Use (Non‐viable unless land assemblage is provided and market price for housing can be met) 13,500 SF retail 108,500 SF office 790 rental apartments
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Actionable Market Opportunities
There is market opportunity in Lee County’s strong population growth and the Study Area’s unique location as a linkage to the cities of Fort Myers and Cape Coral. Projected job growth and its associated demand for new office space should propel the Study Area forward as a new “downtown” business center, capable of intercepting commuters and providing professional and business services to a growing North Fort Myers community. As former and underutilized highway‐oriented retail is transformed into a new vibrant combination of offices, entertainment, institutional and cultural uses, a recognition of a “sense of place” will evolve and demand for housing should emerge that will encourage “millennials” to consider the Study Area as an attractive live‐work environment. Organic infill of newer shops, galleries, theaters, and other uses will naturally occur, and speculative interest in Cabana City should begin to transform this largely blighted area into a sought‐after “niche” housing neighborhood that offers “old‐Florida” charm but also stimulates development of more modern housing options. Key to the Study Area’s transformation is the access to the Caloosahatchee River front. Subject to additional feasibility analyses, recommendations to Lee County include the development of a new riverfront park, complete with recreation areas, walking esplanade, jogging/biking paths and a boat launch. 7.1 – Strategic Recommendations – How do we get there?
The process of revitalization of a community is a complicated one, encompassing many aspects of public and private cooperation. DCG Corplan has developed a three‐step process for the Study Area with the caveat that unforeseen market conditions, unanticipated events, or other conditions may alter the methodology, thereby making flexibility and adaptation as requisite components of the plan. Level One recommendations should be considered as near‐ term objectives that Lee County should be able to effectively address within the next calendar year. Level Two and Three goals are more mid‐ and long‐term in nature and will require a longer period to achieve.
Revitalization Scenario: Level One – Starting Point (Near Term)
In this initial phase, approaches to current conditions and immediate future actions are presented. This is a status‐quo starting point initiative, requiring little public action or cost.
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Strategic Recommendation #1 – Property Maintenance
As identified by the public survey, the number one concern for the Study Area is the poorly maintained conditions of the empty retail stores within the Study Area. The Lee County Land Development Code contains language for maintenance of facilities32 and punitive application has apparently been somewhat overlooked in some cases. Enforcement of current zoning ordinances regarding property maintenance is essential. It is highly recommended that violations be actively prosecuted with resulting fines assessed to the maximum extent. Maintaining vacant facilities including trash removal and storm water management is essential to the well‐being of the community as well as placing available properties in the best light for eventual acquisition.
Strategic Recommendation #2 – Study Area Property Owners’ Coalition
Gathering local property owners into a cohesive organization is helpful in putting a “face” on the Study Area. The Commercial Corridor Revitalization Subcommittee should continue its efforts on the common needs of the Study Area and respond to calls for action. This group will be fundamental in building coalitions for site assemblages discussed in the third scenario later in this section.
Strategic Recommendation #3 – Study Area Revitalization Online Resource
A new online resource should be developed that hosts the study findings and appendices, provides interactive mapping of the properties with overlays of recommended uses, offers interactive aerial drone photo‐imagery, and provides property records support required on the “backend” of the GIS data mapping. Most likely, the County’s Develop North Fort Myers website33 can be used as the framework for the resource, with a link embedded to new pages that are dedicated solely for the revitalization of the Study Area. It is important that this resource appear as a standalone website that can be viewed by prospective developers and offers a sophisticated message designed to encourage investment.
32 Lee County Development Code; Section 6‐115 ‐‐ Maintenance 33 http://www.leecountybusiness.com/develop‐lee/develop‐north‐fort‐myers/
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Strategic Recommendation #4 – Allowance for Temporary Uses
The US Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines alternative approaches to vacant land as “Temporary Urbanism”34 and explains the uses in this way: “Temporary uses can vary widely in purpose and duration; their viability depends on local market and regulatory conditions in addition to the work of entrepreneurial project initiators and their supporters. Common temporary projects include community gardens and other green spaces, special events such as festivals or concert series, and stores or restaurants. The experimentation and reversibility afforded by temporary use practices can encourage a multilayered approach to land use and increase the likelihood that a vacant space will eventually find permanent use.” For the Study Area, holders of vacant shopping centers or empty commercial lands could benefit from temporary urbanism or “pop‐up” facilities as currently allowed under the temporary use provisions of the County’s Land Development Code. Common pop‐up uses normally include retail, amusements or fairs, farmers’ markets, urban gardens, art installations, religious/institutional, or storage/parking. Task Four Exhibit 4.2(8) illustrates several vacant commercial parcels within the Study Area that could be offered by their owners for temporary use. By establishing a schedule of free creative events that take place simultaneously on these properties such as music festivals, farmers’ markets, or arts exhibits and the provision of transportation linkages between them such as free bus/trolley rides, a successful establishment of the Study Area as an entertainment or cultural destination is possible, at relatively low cost. It is recommended that the Lee County Visitor & Convention Bureau (VCB) be engaged to interface with these property owners to coordinate leasing, insurance, performance fees, and transportation. HUD does warn, however, that discontinuance of these public forums by change of ownership or eventual development may have unintended consequences (bad press, etc.), so a constant reminder of the temporary nature of the installation is necessary.
34 US Dept. of Housing and Urban Development; “Temporary Urbanism: Alternative Approaches to Vacant Land”; https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/em/winter14/highlight4.html
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Revitalization Scenario: Level Two – Place‐Making (Mid‐Term)
This second step requires a higher level of commitment and should be undertaken if the preceding scenario proves to be successful.
Strategic Recommendation #5 – Flexible Zoning
As discussed in Task 4.1, the Study Area contains nine zoning districts (five commercial and four residential). The Study Area is located within the Mixed‐Use Overlay as an area appropriate for mixed use. The Mixed‐Use Overlay could be utilized to support revitalization of the Study Area, and amendments to the Lee Plan and Land Development Code should promote integrated mixed uses with increased densities and intensities and create development regulations that allow for urban forms of development and a variety of uses. In the Mixed‐Use Overlay, the use of conventional zoning districts, with modified development regulations, should be encouraged to promote redevelopment without having to rezone. Modified development regulations in the Mixed‐Use Overlay could permit increased building heights, up to 135 feet, increased lot coverage, reduced setbacks, and reduced parking. The Mixed‐Use Overlay extends beyond the study area and encompasses both sides of US 41. This will allow significant density increases as well as a mix of uses which will prove attractive to the development community which normally seek opportunities for more intensive land use. Along with utilizing the Mixed‐Use Overlay, DCG Corplan also recommends the creation of Waterfront Redevelopment Zone along the river. The objective of this zone is to promote waterfront compatible uses such as multi‐family housing, lodging, or outdoor recreational uses. The zone would seek to limit the private use of the waterfront and encourage greater public access. Use of existing overlays, such as the Water Dependent Overlay and Mixed‐Use Overlay, should be explored and the waterfront properties should be designated as appropriate.
Strategic Recommendation #6 – Street Grid Connections
It is evident that the bi‐furcating highway nature of the Study Area makes redevelopment difficult, especially for new‐urbanist models that have limited traffic design issues. Historically, and from public survey review, an extension of Hancock Bridge Parkway has been
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 240 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT sought that would provide east‐west connectivity between the US 41/Business 41 corridors. Alternatively, Pondella Road was recognized as prime connector, and although widening and traffic improvements were made, rush‐hour traffic makes this transit a slow‐going. The limiting of a natural street‐grid in Cabana City that would normally permit some filtering of traffic across the Study Area from US 41 has resulted in isolation of this neighborhood and has likely given rise to higher crime as a result. DCG Corplan recommends that the County examine ways to connect the street grid of Cabana City to US 41 similar to the adopted voluntary regulating plan for the NFM Town Center. Acquisition of one or two private properties west of River Road would allow Cabana Ave. and Oak Street, the two main collector streets, to meet the rear of Hancock Bridge Plaza and at least provide some traffic access east and west. More cars on these streets would also provide better visibility within Cabana City and allow for easier access by police and emergency vehicles. Lowering of crime rate would in turn generate higher property values and promote more home ownership. A secondary transportation recommendation entails West North Shore Ave. By acquisition of a vacant commercial and residential parcel and the construction of two small bridges, this street can be extended to the rear of existing US 41 commercial properties, thereby providing pedestrian, bicycle and eventual vehicular east‐west connectivity near the riverfront. Depending on future alignments, West North Shore Ave. could become almost an extension of the very pleasant North Key Drive with a similar center landscaped center median‐divided road, providing a continuity of experience along the waterfront.
Strategic Recommendation #7 – Mass Transit Options
Mass transit to the Study Area is currently provided by LeeTran’s number 70 and 140 busses. Both of these routes travel US 41 to Pondella Rd. from Fort Myers. No bus line covers Business 41, however, the number 595 does transit Pondella Road (Refer to Exhibit 7.1(1)). Light vehicle (trolleys) serve the beach but not the Study Area. The ten‐year update to the LeeTran Transit Development Plan (TDP) will outline new improvements to the system. At present, no route is shown in the TDP Plan for Business 41 into Downtown. It is hoped that a loop route could be established that will allow residents and workers access to both US 41 and Business 41 via downtown Fort Myers. Should this prove untenable, an effort should be made to encourage an entrepreneurial start‐up of a private jitney service offering this loop service. As an accessory to the new route, a park‐and‐
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 241 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT ride lot on a vacant commercial property with a bus stop can be created to help eliminate some traffic flow congestion for commuters traveling from the more northern housing areas. As an accessory to the new route, a park‐and‐ride lot on a vacant commercial property with a bus stop can be created to help eliminate some traffic flow congestion for commuters traveling from the more northern housing areas. A second mass transit option suggested for the Study Area is a water taxi service from downtown Fort Myers. Ferries have gained popularity throughout the US and provide not only worker commutation options but also allow for safe evening entertainment travel (bar‐ hopping) and sight‐seeing excursions. An initial route suggestion would be service between the Fort Myers District City Pier and the North Shore Park Fishing Pier. A stop at Lofton Island during good weather might also be an inducement for ridership.
Strategic Recommendation #8 – Neighborhood Stabilization and Upgrade Strategies
For a transitory population, North Fort Myers has been an affordable choice, as there are many mobile home parks throughout the area. As shown in Chart 3.2.14, the mobile home category is the 2nd most popular housing type for the NFM‐MA (13.5% in 2010), exceeding both Lee County and the State of Florida share. In the Study Area, there are several mobile home locations on prime development parcels such as waterfront and along major transportation arteries. In the opinion of DCG Corplan, mobile homes in the Study Area are not determined to be the highest and best use of the lands. Lee County may want to consider relocating these parks or upgrading the housing by pursuing neighborhood stabilization and upgrade strategies, including upgrades to the existing housing stock where appropriate, remaining mindful of the County’s affordable housing objectives. From a tax revenue standpoint, a 4.7‐acre property located in the Study Area contains 90 mobile home units and generates an annual property tax revenue of only $2,285 per acre. A second more prominent 120‐unit parcel on 5.7 acres of riverfront generates only $3,588 per acre. In comparison, an active 3.3‐acre waterfront lodging parcel currently generates over $21,000 per acre in tax revenue to the County. For Cabana City, the high degree of absentee home ownership is likely a root cause for many of the social issues relating to a transitory resident class. DCG Corplan recommends that the
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County pursue a campaign to encourage more home ownership by the area’s residents wherever possible.
Strategic Recommendation #9 – Infrastructure Capabilities Assessment
The transformation of the Study Area into a vibrant business center is largely dependent on the capabilities of the utility services infrastructure. Probably the most visible reminder of the need to for maintenance and upgrade of facilities is the Hancock Bridge Square parking lot flooding during significant rain events. This condition has been numerously referenced in the public survey comments and may be indicative of other utility service issues in the Study Area. Mitigation of storm water runoff is a common problem for any low‐lying property and on‐site retention is often the preferred solution. Properly designed retention ponds can contain and slowly deliver rain volume to storm water controls while also provided pleasing amenities for pedestrians and wildlife. Property owners with storm control problems should be canvassed and educated about retention design and a public forum should be conducted as soon as possible to bring the issue to light. A GIS overlay of known flooding conditions of the Study Area should be created and added to the project website. Depending on the extent of site redevelopment, the SFWMD or FDEP will require compliance with current stormwater regulations. Therefore, adequate space should be considered for the retention/detention of stormwater to meet flood protection and water quality criteria. Further, there are known water quality issues in the region. North Shore Park is periodically posted by the Department of Health due to bacteria violations. Also, the Caloosahatchee River is impaired for nutrients. Given a desire to develop water based activities, a pollutant source identification study or analysis should be performed so that corrective actions may be taken. As new development is planned, changes of use toward more dense occupancies will impact the water and wastewater systems. The Study Area’s water service is provided by LCU while the wastewater service is bi‐furcated into LCU and FGUA service areas. Ultimately, all wastewater flow is directed to the FGUA treatment plant through sections of LCU and FGUA collection systems. FGUA’s treatment plant is permitted to treat 4.25 MGD (million gallons per day) and approximately 3.75 MGD is currently utilized, leaving about 0.5 MGD for new demand. Although most of the residential properties are still on septic, some of the larger parcels located along the new 41 are served by a centralized wastewater system. The Study
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Area will require water and wastewater transmission mains to properly manage flows from new development. To prepare for future development within the Study Area, LCU and FGUA should consider the ramifications of this study in terms of impact to the water and wastewater systems and ultimately determine the anticipated needed capital improvements and associated probable costs to accommodate increased demand. From this separate evaluation, a phased approach can be developed as well as identification of funding opportunities to supplement fees and attract new development. Improvements within the Study Area will require corresponding improvement to the LCU and FGUA wastewater collection system to transmit flows to the FGUA WWTP. Additionally, upgrades and an increase in capacity will be required at the FGUA WWTP. Lee County should prepare a predictive range of probable capital cost, develop needed impact fees to cover capital improvement, and opportunities for funding to supplement fees to attract development within the Study Area. Electrical service to the Study Area is provided by Lee County Electric Co‐Operative (LCEC) District 5. Recent cost‐cutting efforts by the utility have made service quite affordable placing LCEC among Florida’s least expensive service providers. Commercial rates are currently quoted at 5.91 cents per kilowatt hour35 and the utility offers “smart‐grid” support for alternative energy generation as an added bonus. More than likely, LCEC will easily accommodate future development needs, but the utility should be consulted by Lee County as to any future concerns. Finally, if a modern workforce is to be adequately supported, adequate telecommunications and broadband internet are absolute necessities. Cell service appears to be adequately available locally, but Lee County must assess the state of broadband in the Study Area. Merchants’ use of cell‐phone based credit card processing as well as consumers growing use of cell‐phone mobile payment methods demand high speed telecommunications for data. Wi‐Fi use is increasing exponentially and municipally supported free public Wi‐Fi is becoming a major trend (Raleigh, NC, Milford, CT, Omaha, NE, Las Vegas, NV, Sanford, FL, Noblesville, IN ‐‐ just to name a few). Lee County should enquire with local carriers about instituting a free Study Area Wi‐Fi program as a special means of promoting the area. Although there is a cost factor involved, the initiative could provide a unique jump‐start in place‐making.
Strategic Recommendation #10 – Branding and Image Building
35 Lee County Electric Cooperative, Inc.; General Service‐Demand Electrical Service rate schedule.
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Clearly, a name is required for the Study Area. While the Study Area is within North Fort Myers, even the NFM is not a real town name as the CDP and associated communities are within unincorporated areas of Lee County. As a more intensified center development begins to emerge, recognition of this unique place is required to differentiate its character and identify it as a potential investment candidate. Several names for the Study Area have been used in casual discussions during this engagement. “Riverside”, “North River”, “Uptown”, and others are currently being considered, but these are only suggestions that need to be routed more formally in a branding strategy. At present, the small North River Park at end of the US 41 causeway is the only identifiable branding clue. While “North River” is a reasonably acceptable name, is does little to inspire or provoke imagery of a dynamic transformation. The Horizon Council Task Force has created the Develop North Fort Myers logo along with the website, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and Instagram sites. When the new Study Area's name is chosen, these existing branding efforts could be revised to accommodate the new name and develop a “sense of place” for the Study Area.
Revitalization Scenario: Level Three – Proactive Transformation (Long‐Term) It can be assumed that while the two preceding program steps are being implemented, private sector real estate activity will be ongoing and independent of public revitalization efforts. The following recommendations must be considered as guidelines only, and that some flexibility in their implementation may be necessary.
Strategic Recommendation #11 – Non‐Profit Development Organization
In many Florida communities, a downtrodden neighborhood seeking revitalization is a prime candidate for designation as a Community Redevelopment Area (CRA)36. This program requires that funds be locally generated, are not state regulated, but must be consistent with local government comprehensive plans. The Lee Plan37 recognizes the Study Area as a Mixed‐ Use Overlay which remains a consistent vision for the area. Currently there are about 180 CRAs in the State of Florida, attesting to the popularity of the program. The Downtown River
36 Florida Statutes, Chapter 163, Part III – Community Redevelopment Areas 37 The Lee Plan – Lee County, FL Comprehensive Plan – April 2016
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District in the City of Fort Myers is an example of a successful CRA, complete with its own website. For the Study Area, a similar agency could provide the organizational impetus needed to transform and revitalize the community. But, a CRA requires that a number of steps be taken through a very structured process. These include: 1. Establish a 5‐7 member Administrative Board. 2. Adopt a Finding of Necessity. 3. Develop and adopt the Community Redevelopment Plan. 4. Create a Redevelopment Trust Fund. According to the Florida Redevelopment Association38, CRAs have “certain powers that the city or county by itself may not do, such as establish tax increment financing, and leverage local public funds with private dollars to make redevelopment happen. The CRA term is limited to 30 years, 40 years if extended. After that time, all revenues (presumably much increased from the start of the CRA) are retained by each taxing entity that contributed to the CRA trust fund.” A CRA is an established methodology that is largely funded through tax increment financing (TIF) revenues. As an example, the City of Delay Beach, FL, (Palm Beach County, one of older CRA’s in the state (1985) currently has funding levels in the millions of dollars, but required fourteen years’ operation to break the$1 million level39. Properties located within Delray’s CRA do not pay additional taxes, but instead the CRA receives a proportional amount of collected property taxes. The greater the increase in taxable property values over the CRA’s base year (1985), the larger the incremental increase in revenues transferred to the CRA. At present, there is national controversy regarding the effectiveness of TIFs, with some opponents claiming that the incremental increase in properties near to the TIF periphery would occur regardless of the TIF program, thereby negating its effectiveness. However, judicious use of this financing vehicle often results in the successful leveraging of development bonds for large projects that may otherwise not be deemed as creditworthy. For the Study Area, a CRA and its TIF financing mechanism may not be the right fit. An area of blight must be identified, and then a large TIF boundary defined from which to base the property tax increment. Housing areas outside of the Study Area would be included in the tax
38 Florida Redevelopment Association; CRA Basics; http://redevelopment.net/cra‐resources/q‐a‐for‐cras/ 39 City of Delray Beach, FL; CRA Financial Information; http://delraycra.org/about‐us/
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 246 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT calculation area and funds for future County services that might otherwise be dedicated to these sites could instead be captured for use in repayment of the TIF district projects. It is quickly understood why the CRA and its TIF foundation may not be suitable for all areas. As described in the Task 5 SWOT(T) section, a suggestion was made for the possible establishment of a Community Development Corporation (CDC) for the Study Area. What is a more likely potential is the creation of a Non‐Profit Development Organization (NDO). An NDO is a non‐profit association or corporation organized under State law to engage in community economic development activities. The non‐profit would enter an agreement with Lee County and the State of Florida to act as a sub‐recipient of Community Development Block Grants (CDBG). If the repayments of loans from the NDO are made directly back to the organization and the NDO retains the repayments for further use, repayments are not considered program income; subsequent loans by the NDO using those funds do not have to meet any Federal requirements. The NDO would then administer a Revolving Loan Fund (RLF) resulting from those repayments in accordance with the terms of a re‐use plan which is approved by the State. Research into other grants or programs would be an important role of the NDO as well. As an example, St. Lucie County recently received $30,000 for a 310‐foot long waterfront boardwalk and foot bridges an educational kiosk from the Florida Coastal Management Program40. An NDO in the Study Area would be valuable in providing the following services: Provide micro‐loans for building improvements and infrastructure upgrade. Serve as a fund‐raising organization. Research available state and federal grant and funding opportunities. Administer public‐private partnerships. Facilitate site assemblage strategies. Conduct branding, marketing and website functions. The Study Area NDO would make sense as its mission could be varied. By not attempting to act as a developer, the NDO would be free to serve in an advisory capacity by interfacing with Lee County and the local business community, with a narrow focus specifically on improvements for the Study Area. Successful agencies such as the Horizon Council could serve as a model for the Study Area NDO. It is also conceivable that a Business Improvement
40 Florida Depart of Environmental Protection; Coastal Grant Abstracts; July 2015‐2016; http://www.dep.state.fl.us/cmp/grants/files/FY_15‐16_CPI_Abstracts.pdf
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District (BID) be established which could be used to forge partnerships between the County, property owners, waterfront businesses and community organizations.
Strategic Recommendation #12 – Site Assemblages Strategies
In real estate, two contiguous parcels can, in many instances, command higher value if combined. This term is known as “assemblage” and developers often seek opportunities to achieve property assemblages to reduce overall costs and increase buildable area of properties. To demonstrate how assemblage raises property utility, refer to Chart 7.1(1) below. In this example, two neighboring 100 ft x 100 ft properties are evaluated. For both lots, 10 ft side yards and 25 ft front and rear yards reduce the net buildable area to a maximum of 4,000 SF, or a total capacity of two 4,000 SF structures (assume 1 ‐story) potentially being built on the properties. But if the properties are combined, intervening side‐ yards are eliminated and the net buildable area increases to 9,000 SF, producing a 12.5% bonus (1,000 SF additional permitted).
Chart 7.1(1) – Site Assemblage Primer
2 Individual lots 1 Combined Lot Total lot area 20,000 SF Total lot area 20,000 SF Side‐yard setbacks 4,000 SF Side‐yard setbacks 2,000 SF Front‐ & Rear‐yard Setbacks 8,000 SF Front‐ & Rear‐yard Setbacks 9,000 SF Net Buildable Area 8,000 SF Net Buildable Area 9,000 SF Source: DCG Corplan Consulting
This simple example provides the foundation for site assemblage strategies. Other advantages such as Floor Area Ratio (FAR), utility hookups, driveways cuts, front door addresses, and more can make site assemblies of higher value than the maintaining of individual lots. For adjoining property owners, this translates into higher sales values of
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 248 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT assembled lots. For the developer, while it would appear to be preferable to take advantage of smaller lower priced lots, the slightly higher overall acquisition price of combined parcels is acceptable over the time required to assemble individual properties. For the Study Area, beginning the process for strategic site assembly starts with a coalition of property owners as described in Strategic Recommendation #2. With this collaboration in place, discussions with adjoining property owners can commence on ways to mutually benefit from site assemblies that will attract developer interest. Successful transformation of the Study Area should not be considered as a wholesale effort, but rather as a series of smaller steps that will create gradual change. DCG Corplan recommends that key properties or assemblages that are located nearest to roadway intersections with the Study Area be considered the key candidates for redevelopment efforts. This “anchoring the corners” approach will focus on the properties with the highest visibility and likelihood for success. As securing of an anchor tenant in a shipping center helps to encourage rentals of smaller units, development of anchor sites will similarly promote the organic infill of other sites. (Refer to the Strategic Site Assemblage Scenarios later in this section for more information). Once target property assemblages are identified, cooperative agreements between property owners are needed that will allow the sites to be marketed. This is similar to the real estate option process where the rights to purchase a property for a small non‐refundable down payment is given over a period of time (usually one year). DCG Corplan recommends that the NDO secure option rights to primary assemblies to guarantee that agreed prices are held and that component parcels are not individually withdrawn from the assembly. Obviously, discussions need to be held with prospective site assembly partners in advance of any formal agreements which should be the focus of a Phase Two of this study.
Strategic Recommendation #13 – Incentives
Proactive zoning, site assemblages, and cooperative property owner arrangements can provide a very compelling message to the development community. In some cases, this may be just what is needed to generate successful outcomes. But, in other cases, additional encouragement is required: Incentives. The provision of municipal assistance to private companies especially in the areas of property tax relief, impact fees mitigation, loan
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 249 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT underwriting, and other areas is necessary at times to justify the costs of implementing a development project, most notably large ones. Currently, incentives in Lee County are offered through two main avenues: The Lee County Economic Development Office (and the Horizon Council); and the Lee Industrial Development Authority. These agencies provide the following: Lee County Job Opportunity Program: a maximum of $6,000 cash reimbursement per new high‐paying qualifying jobs (minimum of 10) in multi‐state or international businesses that can be used to offset infrastructure, capital & machinery, facility improvement, relocation, training or land improvement expenses. Lee County industrial revenue bonds: long‐term, below‐market‐rate financing for new and expanding manufacturing facilities. Lee County Gold Key Grant: small business assistance for companies leveraging the US Commercials Services Gold Key Matching Service (international trade). Through the State of Florida, other programs are available: Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund Program Quick Response Training Grant Economic Development Transportation Fund Incumbent Worker Training Grant And, some local communities are offering special incentives through the following: Bonita Springs Estero Economic Development Council City of Cape Coral Economic Development Office City of Fort Myers Fort Myers Community Development Agency Cape Coral Redevelopment Agency State and County incentive programs are essentially oriented toward employers in targeted industries whereas local incentives are more property‐orientated including impact fee waivers, fast track permitting, and administration of CDBG funds. Since the Study Area is likely not to become a CRA nor does it have its own unique municipal standing, a more innovative approach toward development incentives may be necessary. Through the NDO, a new group of incentives are recommended that will monetarily reward developers to acquire and construct new or rehabilitated facilities that support the NFM‐MA target industries developed in this study.
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Recapping from Task 3.3, the ranking of priority for these industries is as follows: 1. Educational Services 2. Health Care & Social Assistance 3. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 4. Public Administration 5. Wholesale Trade 6. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 7. Management of Companies and Enterprises 8. Accommodation & Food Services
Subject to more thorough review by the County, two incentive recommendations are presented below, which may be selected individually, but not simultaneously. This program will provide an incentive benefit to all participating property owners and their development partners in the Study Area. The incentives have been proven not to result in a burden to Lee County, as indicated by the ratio of economic impacts/incentive costs accompanying each site assemblage scenario. As redevelopment will likely entail a higher and better use than currently utilized, the value of property taxes would rise commensurate with the investment. Lee County presently uses a millage rate of $15.6804 per $1,000 of Just (market) valuation, prorated by occupancy level and cash flow until stabilized occupancy is reached. The County taxes development projects not yet in service as vacant land, and on average, this results in about $1,100 per acre which will be utilized as a constant for the incentive calculations (escalated by inflation for multi‐ year construction timelines).
Incentive #1: Targeted Industries Property Tax Credit DCG Corplan recommends that strategic site assemblage alliances be rewarded for redevelopment in support of the targeted industries. The Targeted Industry Property Tax Credit incentive is a ten‐year property increment tax abatement post construction on a descending scale (10% per year) which begins at 90% of the tax increment in first year of occupancy and is eliminated by the tenth year.
Estimated Value of Tax Net Property Incentive Project Time Property Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid increment Construction $5,000 $0 $5,000 0% Occupancy Year 1 $25,000 $22,500 $2,500 90%
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Occupancy Year 2 $25,375 $20,300 $5,075 80% Occupancy Year 3 $25,756 $18,029 $7,727 70% Occupancy Year 4 $26,142 $15,685 $10,457 60% Occupancy Year 5 $26,534 $13,267 $13,267 50% Occupancy Year 6 $26,932 $10,773 $16,159 40% Occupancy Year 7 $27,336 $8,201 $19,135 30% Occupancy Year 8 $27,746 $5,549 $22,197 20% Occupancy Year 9 $28,162 $2,816 $25,346 10% Occupancy Year 10 $28,585 $0 $28,585 0% Total Incentive Value $117,120 Net Present Value (5% discount) $98,153
Incentive #2: Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit For remaining Study Area properties that do not elect to develop from the Targeted Industries list, a second incentive is suggested. The Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit is property a tax credit that rebates impact fees from property tax increase development after construction over a ten‐year period. Since impact fees cannot be waived, however, a separate funding source could be created that pays the impact fees for the assemblages. For example, if a project incurs an impact fee of $100,000, the rebate is calculated as follows:
Estimated Value of Tax Net Property Project Time Property Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Construction $5,000 $0 $5,000 Occupancy Year 1 $25,375 $10,000 $15,375 Occupancy Year 2 $25,756 $10,000 $15,756 Occupancy Year 3 $26,142 $10,000 $16,142 Occupancy Year 4 $26,534 $10,000 $16,534 Occupancy Year 5 $26,932 $10,000 $16,932 Occupancy Year 6 $27,336 $10,000 $17,336 Occupancy Year 7 $27,746 $10,000 $17,746 Occupancy Year 8 $25,000 $10,000 $15,000 Occupancy Year 9 $28,162 $10,000 $18,162 Occupancy Year 10 $28,585 $10,000 $18,585 Total Incentive Value $100,000 Net Present Value (5% discount) $77,217
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Exhibit 7.1(1) – LeeTran Bus Routes
Source: LeeTran Maps and Schedule, Lee County
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7.2 ‐‐ Strategic Site Assemblage Scenarios
As earlier discussed, assembling or “packaging” of sites for development has several advantages. The creation of Non‐Profit Development Organization (NDO) for the Study Area should allow for integration of contiguous properties into a portfolio of development opportunities that can be promoted to the real estate community. Hopefully, simple Memorandums of Understanding (MOU’s) can be prepared by the NDO for property owners’ use to indicate willingness to partner with each other for mutual benefit. It is not anticipated that the NDO nor the County will pursue actual property acquisitions as the costs of these endeavors can become quickly overwhelming. Optioning of lands is a suggested course of action but not necessarily the only available route. In the following section, a series of possible site assemblages is presented. In total, there are twelve parcel assemblage scenarios. Each scenario is addressed individually in subsequent analyses.
Economic Impacts
Primary, secondary, and tertiary levels of recommendation by DCG Corplan are added to each scenario, where appropriate. Accompanying each of these is an Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) of direct, indirect and induced effects. The EIA measures changes in business revenue, business profits, personal wages, and/or jobs. The EIA utilizes industry standard input‐output modeling software (IMPLAN41) and a Net Present Value (NPV) calculation. The IMPLAN model is a Lee County‐based system, and evaluations of overall economic impact on the local communities presented herein are estimated by percentage of County impacts.
Key Terminology Direct Effects – the set of expenditures applied to the predictive model (i.e., I/O multipliers) for impact analysis. It is a series (or single) of production changes or expenditures made by producers/consumers because of an activity or policy. These initial changes are determined by an analyst to be a result of this activity or policy.
41 IMPLAN (IMpacts for PLANning; Version 3.1.1001.12, Minnesota Implan Group, Inc. 2013)
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Indirect Effects – the impact of local industries buying goods and services from other local industries. The cycle of spending works its way backward through the supply chain until all money leaks from the local economy, either through imports or by payments to value added. Induced Effects – The response by an economy to an initial change (direct effect) that occurs through re‐spending of income received by a component of value added. This money is recirculated through the household spending patterns causing further local economic activity. Labor Income – all forms of employment income, including Employee Compensation (wages and benefits) and Proprietor Income. Value Added – the difference between an industry’s or an establishment’s total output and the cost of its intermediate inputs. It equals gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Value added consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports less subsidies and gross operating surplus. Output – represents the value of industry production. In IMPLAN these are annual production estimates for the year of the data set and are in producer prices. For manufacturers, this would be sales plus/minus change in inventory. For service sectors production = sales. For Retail and wholesale trade, output = gross margin and not gross sales. Net Present Value ‐‐ is a measurement of the profitability of an undertaking that is calculated by subtracting the present values (PV) of cash outflows (including initial cost) from the present values of cash inflows over a period of time. Incoming and outgoing cash flows can also be described as benefit and cost cash flows, respectively
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Site Assemblage Scenario #1: Professional Offices ‐ LowRise
STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: PRIMARY A 9.5‐acre site assembly on Hancock Bridge Parkway suitable for professional business uses. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 138,000 SF of professional office space in multi‐building low‐rise configuration of not more than two stories with on‐site parking for 690 cars. Office construction is projected to create 115 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $26.5 million for the Lee County economy. Office operations are projected to create 690 new jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $78.5 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 9.459 $9,276 $592,618 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Space/1,000 SF Parking Space (SF) Space Stories 9.5 5 350 25% 2 # of Parking Total Parking Area Building Total SF Spaces SF Footprint SF FAR 69,000 690 241,500 138,000 0.33 Economic Impact ‐ Office Construction Total Construction costs (not including land) $18,261,500 Employment Impact Type (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 115 $4,942,883 $7,891,281 $17,654,173 Indirect Effect 38 $1,616,473 $2,651,852 $4,861,142 Induced Effect 32 $1,215,345 $2,293,738 $3,947,704 Total Effect 185 $7,774,703 $12,836,871 $26,463,019 Economic Impact ‐ Office Occupancy Office Jobs 690 Employment Impact Type Labor Income Value Added Output (local) Direct Effect 690 $24,761,783 $24,625,836 $44,265,910 Indirect Effect 133 $5,575,327 $8,870,810 $16,185,740 Induced Effect 145 $5,576,469 $10,514,482 $18,089,100 Total Effect 967 $35,913,579 $44,011,128 $78,540,750
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Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 60% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 40% in the second. Office occupancy will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 50% occupancy, increasing to 85%, 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property tax increase increments will be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is an Office project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $1,166,005 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $872,002. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 602.2 to one, resulting in an outstanding value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Office Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Office Construction Year 1 $16,031,188 $9,415 $0 $9,415 0% 70 0 Year 2 ‐ Office Construction Year 2 $10,431,831 $9,557 $0 $9,557 0% 45 0 Year 3 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 1 $39,270,377 $152,874 $137,586 $15,287 90.0% 0 345 Year 4 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 2 $66,816,560 $253,241 $202,593 $50,648 80.0% 0 587 Year 5 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 3 $70,686,678 $267,706 $187,394 $80,312 70.0% 0 621 Year 6 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 4 $78,540,750 $296,491 $177,894 $118,596 60.0% 0 690 Year 7 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 5 $78,540,750 $300,938 $150,469 $150,469 50.0% 0 690 Year 8 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 6 $78,540,750 $305,452 $122,181 $183,271 40.0% 0 690 Year 9 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 7 $78,540,750 $310,034 $93,010 $217,024 30.0% 0 690 Year 10 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 8 $78,540,750 $314,684 $62,937 $251,747 20.0% 0 690 Year 11 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 9 $78,540,750 $319,405 $31,940 $287,464 10.0% 0 690 Year 12 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 10 $78,540,750 $324,196 $0 $324,196 0 690 Total $753,021,884 $1,166,005 115 690 NPV (5% discount) $525,094,102 $872,002 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 602.2
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Site Assemblage Scenario #2: Offices MidRise #1 STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: PRIMARY A 9.0‐acre site assembly on US 41 suitable for a mid‐rise corporate Class A office building. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 150,000 SF of corporate office space in a single‐building mid‐rise configuration of five stories. Average floorplate is 30,000 SF with on‐ site parking for 750 cars. Office construction is projected to create 148 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $34.0 million for the Lee County economy. Office operations are projected to create 750 new jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $82.1 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 8.976 $51,226 $3,448,582 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Space/1,000 SF Parking space (SF) Space Stories 9.0 5 350 25% 5 Building Total # of Parking Total Parking Area SF Spaces SF Footprint SF FAR 150,000 750 262,500 30,000 0.38 Economic Impact ‐ Office Construction Total Construction costs (not including land) $23,254,500 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 148 $6,355,153 $10,145,961 $22,698,284 Indirect Effect 49 $2,078,329 $3,409,533 $6,250,057 Induced Effect 41 $1,562,592 $2,949,100 $5,075,634 Total Effect 237 $9,996,073 $16,504,594 $34,023,974 Economic Impact ‐ Office Occupancy Office Jobs 750 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 750 $26,914,981 $26,767,212 $48,115,120 Indirect Effect 124 $5,398,119 $8,436,925 $15,358,649 Induced Effect 145 $5,713,391 $10,781,792 $18,593,637 Total Effect 1,020 $38,026,491 $45,985,930 $82,067,406
Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 60% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 40% in the second. Office occupancy will begin in
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 258 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 50% occupancy, increasing to 85%, 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is an Office project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $1,474,596 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $1,102,657. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 502.2 to one, resulting in an outstanding value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Office Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Office Construction Year 1 $20,046,829 $9,873 $0 $9,873 0% 89 0 Year 2 ‐ Office Construction Year 2 $13,044,892 $10,021 $0 $10,021 0% 58 0 Year 3 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 1 $41,033,703 $192,492 $173,243 $19,249 90.0% 0 375 Year 4 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 2 $69,812,010 $320,268 $256,215 $64,054 80.0% 0 638 Year 5 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 3 $73,860,674 $338,655 $237,059 $101,597 70.0% 0 675 Year 6 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 4 $82,067,406 $375,276 $225,166 $150,110 60.0% 0 750 Year 7 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 5 $82,067,406 $380,905 $190,453 $190,453 50.0% 0 750 Year 8 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 6 $82,067,406 $386,619 $154,648 $231,971 40.0% 0 750 Year 9 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 7 $82,067,406 $392,418 $117,725 $274,693 30.0% 0 750 Year 10 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 8 $82,067,406 $398,305 $79,661 $318,644 20.0% 0 750 Year 11 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 9 $82,067,406 $404,279 $40,428 $363,851 10.0% 0 750 Year 12 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 10 $82,067,406 $410,343 $0 $410,343 0 750 Total $792,269,950 $1,474,596 146 750 NPV (5% discount) $553,752,210 $1,102,657 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 502.2
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Site Assemblage Scenario #3: Offices MidRise #2 STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: PRIMARY A 9.8‐acre site assembly on US 41 suitable for a mid‐rise corporate Class A office building, likely to be considered as a Phase 2 expansion of Offices MidRise 1. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 165,000 SF of corporate office space in a single‐building mid‐rise configuration of five stories. Average floorplate is 33,000 SF. with on‐site parking for 825 cars. Office construction is projected to create 161 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $36.4 million for the Lee County economy. Office operations are projected to create 825 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $90.3 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 9.758 $49,908 $3,491,070 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Space/1,000 SF Space (SF) Space Stories 9.8 5 350 25% 5 Building # of Parking Total SF Spaces Total Parking Area SF Footprint SF FAR 33,000 825 288,750 165,000 0.39 Economic Impact ‐ Office Construction Total Construction costs (not including land) $25,580,000 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 161 $6,923,799 $11,053,800 $24,729,281 Indirect Effect 51 $2,149,998 $3,522,216 $6,414,538 Induced Effect 41 $1,613,958 $3,046,975 $5,257,144 Total Effect 253 $10,687,755 $17,622,991 $36,400,963 Economic Impact ‐ Office Occupancy Office Jobs 825 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 825 $29,606,480 $29,443,935 $52,926,634 Indirect Effect 137 $5,937,931 $9,280,618 $16,894,514 Induced Effect 160 $6,284,730 $11,859,972 $20,453,002 Total Effect 1,122 $41,829,141 $50,584,524 $90,274,149
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Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 60% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 40% in the second. Office occupancy will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 50% occupancy, increasing to 85%, 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is an Office project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $1,621,447 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $1,212,460. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028.The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 496.4 to one, resulting in an outstanding value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Office Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Office Construction Year 1 $14,349,409 $10,734 $0 $10,734 0% 98 0 Year 2 ‐ Office Construction Year 2 $14,349,409 $10,895 $0 $10,895 0% 64 0 Year 3 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 1 $45,191,785 $211,611 $190,450 $21,161 90.0% 0 413 Year 4 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 2 $76,705,675 $352,163 $281,730 $70,433 80.0% 0 701 Year 5 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 3 $81,301,450 $372,387 $260,671 $111,716 70.0% 0 743 Year 6 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 4 $90,274,149 $412,668 $247,601 $165,067 60.0% 0 825 Year 7 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 5 $90,274,149 $418,858 $209,429 $209,429 50.0% 0 825 Year 8 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 6 $90,274,149 $425,141 $170,056 $255,085 40.0% 0 825 Year 9 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 7 $90,274,149 $431,518 $129,455 $302,063 30.0% 0 825 Year 10 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 8 $90,274,149 $437,991 $87,598 $350,393 20.0% 0 825 Year 11 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 9 $90,274,149 $444,561 $44,456 $400,105 10.0% 0 825 Year 12 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 10 $90,274,149 $451,229 $0 $451,229 0 825 Total $863,816,771 $1,621,447 161 825 NPV (5% discount) $601,810,243 $1,212,460 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 496.4
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Site Assemblage Scenario #4: Sports/Recreational STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: SECONDARY An 11.4‐acre assembly on US 41 suitable for conversion to indoor sports and recreational uses. Possible uses include: indoor shooting range; indoor go‐cart racing; indoor laser‐tag; electronic game arcades; swimming pool/water park; and, haunted house. Development program requires conversion of 115,300 SF of existing retail facilities and ultimate infill addition of another 22,100 SF for use as sports/recreation facilities. Total building area is 137,400 SF with on‐site parking for 550 cars. Rehab and new construction is projected to create 46 new construction jobs and generate a one‐year overall economic impact of $11.6 million for the Lee County economy. Sports/recreation operations are projected to create 75 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $9.1 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 11.355 $87,558 $5,687,551 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Lot acreage Space/1,000 SF Space (SF) Space Footprint SF 11.4 4 350 50% 137,400 # of Parking Parking Total Spaces Area SF Subtotal SF Open Space SF FAR 550 192,400 329,800 33,000 0.28 Economic Impact – Sports/Recreation Rehabilitation Total Sports/Recreation Rehabilitation & Infill costs (not including land) $7,700,700 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 46 $1,961,673 $3,173,434 $7,515,505 Indirect Effect 20 $786,232 $1,340,785 $2,399,403 Induced Effect 13 $509,060 $960,737 $1,653,491 Total Effect 79 $3,256,965 $5,474,956 $11,568,399 Economic Impact ‐ Sports/Recreation Occupancy Sports/ Recreation Annual Revenue $6,214,600 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 75 $2,365,059 $3,324,126 $5,584,235 Indirect Effect 14 $509,935 $986,092 $1,828,322 Induced Effect 14 $533,398 $1,006,848 $1,732,979 Total Effect 103 $3,408,392 $5,317,066 $9,145,536
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Total development and construction is scheduled for one year. Sports/Recreational operations will begin in the second Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 75% occupancy, increasing to 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd and 3rd year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is a Sports/Recreational project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will not apply. But, the Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit will be utilized. Sports/Recreational is not a covered use shown on the Unincorporated Lee County Impact Fee Schedule42, so an estimation of $2,500 per 1,000 SF space will be used in the incentive calculation. In total, the incentive is valued at $309,150 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $221,455. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2027. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 352.7 to one, resulting in a very adequate value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Net Sports Economic Property Tax Credit Property Constr. / Rec. Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Sports/Rec. Construction $11,568,399 $7,711 $0 $7,711 46 59 Year 3 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 1 $7,235,944 $98,389 $0 $98,389 0 69 Year 4 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 2 $8,454,035 $116,502 $34,350 $82,152 0 75 Year 5 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 3 $9,145,536 $128,577 $34,350 $94,227 0 75 Year 6 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 4 $9,145,536 $130,505 $34,350 $96,155 0 75 Year 7 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 5 $9,145,536 $132,463 $34,350 $98,113 0 75 Year 8 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 6 $9,145,536 $134,450 $34,350 $100,100 0 75 Year 9 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 7 $9,145,536 $136,467 $34,350 $102,117 0 75 Year 10 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 8 $9,145,536 $138,514 $34,350 $104,164 0 75 Year 11 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 9 $9,145,536 $140,591 $34,350 $106,241 0 75 Year 12 ‐ Sports/Rec. Occupancy Year 10 $9,145,536 $142,700 $34,350 $108,350 0 75 Total $100,422,666 $309,150 46 75 NPV (5% discount) $75,944,698 $221,445 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 342.9
42 Lee County Impact Fee Schedule – June 2015; http://www.leegov.com/dcd/Documents/ImpactFees/UnincLeeEff060315_031618.pdf North Fort Myers – Retail use is $3,851.70 per 1,000 SF
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Site Assemblage Scenario #5: Retail Center STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: SECONDARY A 4.9‐acre assemblage on Pondella Road suitable for a new higher‐end retail shopping center use. New development will encompass projected 18,000 SF of new retail demand plus likely relocation of existing Study Area retailers currently tenanted in underperforming retail facilities. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 58,900 SF of retail space with on‐site parking for 235 cars. Retail construction is projected to create 58 new construction jobs and generate a one‐year overall economic impact of $13.4 million for the Lee County economy. Retail operations are based on an average of $400 per square foot and projected to create 81 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $9.8 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 4.866 $12,183 $748,179 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Lot acreage Space/1,000 SF Space (SF) Space Footprint SF 4.9 4 350 50% 58,900 # of Parking Parking Area Spaces Total SF Subtotal SF Open Space SF FAR 235 82,460 141,360 14,130 0.28 Economic Impact ‐ Retail Construction Total Retail Development costs (not including land) $9,139,500 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 58 $2,497,707 $3,987,573 $8,920,896 Indirect Effect 19 $816,826 $1,340,017 $2,456,402 Induced Effect 16 $614,131 $1,159,057 $1,994,829 Total Effect 93 $3,928,664 $6,486,647 $13,372,126 Economic Impact – Retail Occupancy Retail Operations Annual Revenue $23,560,000 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 81 $2,418,987 $3,911,129 $5,890,801 Indirect Effect 14 $666,048 $1,124,168 $2,087,388 Induced Effect 15 $572,386 $1,080,448 $1,859,661 Total Effect 110 $3,657,421 $6,115,745 $9,837,850
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Total development and construction is scheduled for one year. Retail operations will begin in the second Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 75% occupancy, increasing to 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd and 3rd year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is a Retail project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will not apply. But, the Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit will be utilized. And, a $90,000 one‐time cost is incurred for relocation allowance paid by Lee County (through the NDO) for an existing business relocation expense. In total, the incentive is valued at $316,870 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $233,028. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2027. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 352.7 to one, resulting in a very adequate value for Lee County.
Net Estimated Value of Property Total Economic Property Tax Credit Taxes Constr. Retail Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Paid Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Retail Construction $13,372,126 $5,352 $0 $5,352 58 0 Year 3 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 1 $7,505,487 $112,916 $31,687 $81,229 0 62 Year 4 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 2 $8,930,000 $134,494 $31,687 $102,807 0 74 Year 5 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 3 $9,837,850 $148,908 $31,687 $117,221 0 81 Year 6 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 4 $9,837,850 $151,141 $31,687 $119,454 0 81 Year 7 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 5 $9,837,850 $153,408 $31,687 $121,721 0 81 Year 8 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 6 $9,837,850 $155,710 $31,687 $124,023 0 81 Year 9 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 7 $9,837,850 $158,045 $31,687 $126,358 0 81 Year 10 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 8 $9,837,850 $160,416 $31,687 $128,729 0 81 Year 11 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 9 $9,837,850 $162,822 $31,687 $131,135 0 81 Year 12 ‐ Retail Occupancy Year 10 $9,837,850 $165,265 $31,687 $133,577 0 81 Total $108,510,413 $316,870 58 81 NPV (5% discount) $82,183,477 $233,028 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 352.7
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 265 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT
Site Assemblage Scenario #6: Restaurants STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: SECONDARY A 2.1‐acre site assembly on Business 41 suitable for high quality full‐service restaurant(s) and catering facility(s). Development program is for a maximum buildout of 29,000 SF of food service space in a multiple‐building configuration with on‐site parking for 116 cars. Restaurant construction is projected to create 48 new construction jobs and generate a one‐ year overall economic impact of $11.0 million for the Lee County economy. Restaurant gross receipt (consumer spends) are based on an average check of $25/seat for a total of 1,450 seats, 200 serving days per year, and a projected occupancy of 75 percent. Restaurant operations are projected to create 104 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $8.3 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 2.144 $1,790 $329,764 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Spaces/1,000 sf Space (SF) Space Stories 2.1 4 350 25% 1 Building Total SF # of Parking Spaces Total Parking Area SF Footprint SF FAR 29,000 116 40,600 29,000 0.31 Economic Impact – Restaurants Construction Total Restaurant Development costs (not including land) $7,573,000 Employment Impact Type (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 48 $2,069,603 $3,304,107 $7,391,864 Indirect Effect 16 $676,823 $1,110,340 $2,035,377 Induced Effect 13 $508,870 $960,396 $1,652,918 Total Effect 77 $3,255,295 $5,374,843 $11,080,159 Economic Impact – Restaurants Occupancy Restaurant Annual Receipts $5,437,500 Employment Impact Type Labor Income Value Added Output (local) Direct Effect 104 $2,566,419 $2,789,898 $4,986,202 Indirect Effect 10 $465,210 $797,894 $1,443,788 Induced Effect 15 $562,393 $1,061,566 $1,827,149 Total Effect 128 $3,594,023 $4,649,359 $8,257,140
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Total development and construction is scheduled for one year. Restaurant occupancy will begin in the second Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 60% occupancy, increasing to 80%, and finally 100% in the 2nd and 3rd year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be adjusted to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is a Food Services project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $493,966 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $388,812. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2027. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 172.8 to one, resulting in an adequate value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Rest. Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Restaurant Construction Year 1 $11,080,159 $2,359 $0 $2,359 0% 48 0 Year 2 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 1 $5,173,632 $73,643 $66,279 $7,364 90.0% 0 65 Year 3 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 2 $6,750,360 $97,428 $77,943 $19,486 80.0% 0 85 Year 4 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 3 $8,257,140 $121,214 $84,850 $36,364 70.0% 0 104 Year 5 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 4 $8,257,140 $123,032 $73,819 $49,213 60.0% 0 104 Year 6 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 5 $8,257,140 $124,878 $62,439 $62,439 50.0% 0 104 Year 7 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 6 $8,257,140 $126,751 $50,700 $76,051 40.0% 0 104 Year 8 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 7 $8,257,140 $128,652 $38,596 $90,057 30.0% 0 104 Year 9 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 8 $8,257,140 $130,582 $26,116 $104,466 20.0% 0 104 Year 10 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 9 $8,257,140 $132,541 $13,254 $119,287 10.0% 0 104 Year 11 ‐ Restaurant Occupancy Year 10 $8,257,140 $134,529 $0 $134,529 0.0% 0 104 Total $89,061,271 $493,996 48 104 NPV (5% discount) $67,177,369 $388,812 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 172.8
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Site Assemblage Scenario #7: Condominiums Mid‐Rise STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: SECONDARY A 7.6‐acre assemblage on Business 41 suitable for mid‐rise multi‐family condominium housing site. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 190 condominium units in a five‐ story building configuration with on‐site parking for 285 cars. Condominiums construction is projected to create 112 new construction jobs and generate a one‐year overall economic impact of $34.0 million for the Lee County economy. Occupant spending is based on an averaged $58,414 per unit (refer to Appendix Exhibit 7.2.2(1)) and is projected to create 73 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $15.2 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 7.564 $22,047 $1,522,385 Number of Land Area per Units 25 units/ Ratio of Parking Number of Parking Space Lot acreage acre Spaces/unit Parking Spaces SF 7.6 190 1.5 285 400 # of Stories Gross Building (including Total SF based 0n Assumed Open Total Parking Area covered 1,000 SF / unit Space SF Footprint SF parking) 190,000 50% 114,000 51,528 5 Economic Impact – Condominium Construction Total Condos MidRise Development costs (not including land) $20,800,600 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 112 $4,844,364 $7,691,453 $20,303,078 Indirect Effect 84 $2,976,700 $4,948,665 $8,961,811 Induced Effect 38 $1,448,987 $2,734,662 $4,706,546 Total Effect 234 $9,270,051 $15,374,779 $33,971,436 Economic Impact ‐ Condominium Occupancy Condos MidRise occupants spending 190 units Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 73 $3,647,946 $3,780,214 $8,308,337 Indirect Effect 30 $1,189,244 $1,884,329 $3,987,578 Induced Effect 23 $896,594 $1,692,231 $2,912,518 Total Effect 127 $5,733,785 $7,356,774 $15,208,432
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As this is a Residential project, the Targeted Industries Incentive does not apply. But, the Strategic Site Assemblages Impact Fee Tax Credit will be utilized and a $120,000 one‐time cost is incurred by Lee County (through the NDO) for existing business relocation expense. Total development and construction is scheduled for one year. Condominium occupancy will begin in the second Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 75% occupancy, increasing to 90% and finally 100% in the 2nd and 3rd year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. In total, the incentive is valued at $530,476 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $390,114. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2027. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 337.8 to one, resulting in a very adequate value for Lee County.
Net Total Estimated Value of Property Economic Property Tax Credit Taxes Constr. Retail Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Paid Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Condos. Construction $33,971,436 $8,320 $0 $8,320 84 0 Year 3 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 1 $7,505,487 $253,066 $53,048 $200,019 0 62 Year 4 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 2 $8,930,000 $302,117 $53,048 $249,070 0 74 Year 5 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 3 $15,208,432 $334,733 $53,048 $281,686 0 73 Year 6 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 4 $15,208,432 $339,754 $53,048 $286,707 0 73 Year 7 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 5 $15,208,432 $344,851 $53,048 $291,803 0 73 Year 8 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 6 $15,208,432 $350,023 $53,048 $296,976 0 73 Year 9 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 7 $15,208,432 $355,274 $53,048 $302,226 0 73 Year 10 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 8 $15,208,432 $360,603 $53,048 $307,555 0 73 Year 11 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 9 $15,208,432 $366,012 $53,048 $312,964 0 73 Year 12 ‐ Condos. Occupancy Year 10 $15,208,432 $371,502 $53,048 $318,454 0 73 Total $172,074,379 $530,476 84 73 NPV (5% discount) $131,786,720 $390,114 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 337.8
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Site Assemblage Scenario #8: Offices Flex‐Wholesale STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: PRIMARY A 6.4‐acre site assembly on Business 41 suitable for use as office flex‐wholesale use. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 83,000 SF of single‐story flex‐office space in multi‐building configuration with on‐site parking for 249 cars. Offices Flex‐Wholesale construction is projected to create 34 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $7.9 million for the Lee County economy. Offices Flex‐Wholesale operations are projected to create 249 jobs and produce an annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $24.4 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 6.372 $35,678 $1,971,799 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Space Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Spaces/1,000 sf SF Space Stories 6.4 3 500 25% 1 Number of Footprint SF Parking Spaces Total Parking Area SF Building Total SF FAR 83,000 249 124,500 83,000 0.30 Economic Impact – Offices Flex‐Wholesale Construction Total Office Flex‐Wholesale Development costs (not including land) $5,430,000 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 34 $1,469,751 $2,346,448 $5,249,413 Indirect Effect 11 $480,654 $788,520 $1,445,446 Induced Effect 9 $361,379 $682,036 $1,173,837 Total Effect 55 $2,311,784 $3,817,004 $7,868,696 Economic Impact – Offices Flex‐Wholesale Operations Office Flex‐Wholesale Jobs 249 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 249 $17,192,037 $34,854,167 $9,640,568 Indirect Effect 28 $1,316,467 $2,009,987 $3,662,895 Induced Effect 89 $3,430,765 $6,475,252 $11,144,650 Total Effect 366 $21,939,269 $43,339,406 $24,448,113
Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 70% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 30% in the second. Office occupancy will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 60% occupancy, increasing to 80%, 90% and
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 270 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is a Wholesale project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $371,281 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $278,547. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 589.3 to one, resulting in superb value for Lee County.
Office Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Flex‐ Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Whol. Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 – Office‐Flex Whol. Construction Year 1 $4,766,824 $7,009 $0 $7,009 0% 21 0 Year 2 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Construction Year 2 $3,101,872 $7,114 $0 $7,114 0% 13 0 Year 3 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 1 $14,629,594 $58,308 $52,477 $5,831 90.0% 0 149 Year 4 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 2 $19,538,853 $75,445 $60,356 $15,089 80.0% 0 199 Year 5 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 3 $21,993,481 $84,069 $58,848 $25,221 70.0% 0 224 Year 6 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 4 $24,448,113 $92,695 $55,617 $37,078 60.0% 0 249 Year 7 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 5 $24,448,113 $94,086 $47,043 $47,043 50.0% 0 249 Year 8 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 6 $24,448,113 $95,497 $38,199 $57,298 40.0% 0 249 Year 9 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 7 $24,448,113 $96,929 $29,079 $67,851 30.0% 0 249 Year 10 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 8 $24,448,113 $98,383 $19,677 $78,707 20.0% 0 249 Year 11 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 9 $24,448,113 $99,859 $9,986 $89,873 10.0% 0 249 Year 12 ‐ Office‐Flex Whol. Occupancy Year 10 $24,448,113 $101,357 $0 $101,357 0 249 Total $235,167,415 $371,281 34 249 NPV (5% discount) $164,167,288 $278,547 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 589.3
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Site Assemblage Scenario #9: Hotel MidRise STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: TERTIARY A 3.2‐acre on Business 41 suitable for use as a mid‐rise business hotel. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 61,900 SF of a four‐story business hotel configuration of 130 rooms with on‐site parking for 182 cars. Hotel construction is projected to create 152 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $35.0 million for the Lee County economy. Hotel operations are projected to create 44 jobs and produce and produce annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $7.4 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 3.163 $15,280 $677,605 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Number of Lot acreage Spaces/Rooms Space SF # of Rooms Stories 3.2 1.4 400 130 4 Number of Footprint SF Parking Spaces Total Parking Area SF Building Total SF FAR 15,475 182 72,616 61,900 0.50 Economic Impact – Hotel MidRise Construction Total Hotel Development costs (not including land) $24,190,400 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 152 $6,531,860 $10,428,073 $23,329,418 Indirect Effect 50 $2,136,117 $3,504,337 $6,423,842 Induced Effect 42 $1,606,040 $3,031,101 $5,216,764 Total Effect 244 $10,274,017 $16,963,511 $34,970,024 Economic Impact – Hotel MidRise Occupancy Total Hotel Revenue $5,730,900 Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Value Added Output Direct Effect 44 $1,407,220 $2,967,237 $4,801,556 Indirect Effect 11 $521,172 $799,968 $1,480,843 Induced Effect 9 $357,552 $674,871 $1,161,546 Total Effect 64 $2,285,944 $4,442,076 $7,443,945
Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 50% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 50% in the second. Hotel operations will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 60% of projected operations, increasing to 80%,
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90% and finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of operations percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is an Accommodation project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $1,520,129 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $1,139,125. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 70.8 to one, resulting in an adequate value for Lee County.
Total Estimated Value of Tax Net Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. Hotel Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 – Hotel Construction Year 1 $17,273,373 $3,479 $0 $3,479 0% 77 0 Year 2 ‐ Hotel Construction Year 2 $17,273,373 $3,531 $0 $3,531 0% 75 0 Year 3 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 1 $4,879,494 $231,173 $208,056 $23,117 90.0% 0 29 Year 4 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 2 $6,316,940 $307,090 $245,672 $61,418 80.0% 0 37 Year 5 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 3 $6,900,054 $345,076 $241,553 $103,523 70.0% 0 40 Year 6 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 4 $7,443,945 $383,063 $229,838 $153,225 60.0% 0 44 Year 7 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 5 $7,443,945 $388,809 $194,404 $194,404 50.0% 0 44 Year 8 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 6 $7,443,945 $394,641 $157,856 $236,785 40.0% 0 44 Year 9 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 7 $7,443,945 $400,561 $120,168 $280,392 30.0% 0 44 Year 10 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 8 $7,443,945 $406,569 $81,314 $325,255 20.0% 0 44 Year 11 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 9 $7,443,945 $412,668 $41,267 $371,401 10.0% 0 44 Year 12 ‐ Hotel Occupancy Year 10 $7,443,945 $418,858 $0 $418,858 0 44 Total $104,750,849 $1,520,129 152 44 NPV (5% discount) $80,685,887 $1,139,125 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 70.8
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 273 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT
Site Assemblage Scenario #10: Governmental/Educational/ Health Care STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: PRIMARY A 33.8‐acre assemblage on US 41 suitable for use as a mixed commercial use of government, educational and healthcare rental occupancies. Development program is for a maximum buildout of 122,000 SF rehabilitated retail space and 61,000 SF of new office infill space in a two‐story configuration with on‐site parking for 915 cars, including a 20% allowance for visitor/student parking. Generous amounts of open space (70%) would allow for development of retention ponds, fountains and greenways necessary to address present storm run‐off problems with the site while creating a college campus “feel” to the project. Retail conversion/infill office construction is projected to create 190 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $48.7 million for the Lee County economy. Government/Education/Healthcare operations are projected to create 732 jobs and produce and produce annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $191.8 million.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 33.776 $119,880 $7,346,098 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Spaces/1,000 sf Space SF Space Stories 33.8 5 350 70% 2 Number of Footprint SF Parking Spaces Parking Area Total SF Building Total SF FAR 163,000 915 320,250 183,000 0.12 Economic Impact – Governmental/Educational/ Health Care Rehabilitation‐Construction Total Gov./Educ./ HealthCare Development costs (not including land) $24,928,500 Value Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Added Output Direct Effect 190 $8,200,143 $13,278,713 $31,577,492 Indirect Effect 87 $3,332,448 $5,696,098 $10,178,928 Induced Effect 56 $2,136,433 $4,032,032 $6,939,385 Total Effect 333 $13,669,022 $23,006,844 $48,695,805 Economic Impact – Governmental/Educational/ Health Care Occupancy Total Gov./Educ./ HealthCare Jobs 915
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Value Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Output Added Direct Effect 732 $39,142,350 $43,009,692 $104,468,577 Indirect Effect 409 $15,923,961 $26,118,301 $54,281,739 Induced Effect 265 $10,191,587 $19,232,159 $33,098,241 Total Effect 1,406 $65,257,897 $88,360,152 $191,848,557
Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 60% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 40% in the second. Government / Education / Healthcare occupancy will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 50% occupancy, increasing to 75%, 90%, and finally 100% in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes would be reduced to raw land valuation during construction ($1,100 per acre) and tax increase increments would then be based on this ramp‐up of occupancy percentages. Property taxes are assumed to gain by 1.5% annually to adjust for inflation. Since this is a Government, Education, and Health Care project, the Targeted Industries Incentive will apply. In total, the incentive is valued at $2,123,105 and has an NPV (5% discount rate) of $1,587,671. Project duration is considered as beginning in year 2017 and incentive sunset at the end of year 2028. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total incentive cost) is 788.7 to one, resulting in an excellent value for Lee County.
Gov / Estimated Value of Tax Net Educ/ Total Economic Property Credit Property Incentive Constr. HC Project Time Impacts Taxes Incentive Taxes Paid Increment Jobs Jobs Year 1 ‐ Office Construction Year 1 $29,499,689 $37,154 $0 $37,154 0% 115 0 Year 2 ‐ Office Construction Year 2 $19,196,116 $37,711 $0 $37,711 0% 75 0 Year 3 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 1 $96,115,358 $294,367 $264,931 $29,437 90.0% 0 366 Year 4 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 2 $143,790,886 $422,987 $338,389 $84,597 80.0% 0 549 Year 5 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 3 $172,978,463 $500,397 $350,278 $150,119 70.0% 0 660 Year 6 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 4 $191,848,557 $552,206 $331,324 $220,883 60.0% 0 732 Year 7 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 5 $191,848,557 $552,807 $276,403 $276,403 50.0% 0 732 Year 8 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 6 $191,848,557 $553,416 $221,367 $332,050 40.0% 0 732
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Year 9 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 7 $191,848,557 $561,718 $168,515 $393,202 30.0% 0 732 Year 10 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 8 $191,848,557 $570,143 $114,029 $456,115 20.0% 0 732 Year 11 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 9 $191,848,557 $578,695 $57,870 $520,826 10.0% 0 732 Year 12 ‐ Office Occupancy Year 10 $191,848,557 $587,376 $0 $587,376 0 732 Total $1,804,520,411 $2,123,105 190 732 NPV (5% discount) $1,252,162,900 $1,587,671 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Incentives 788.7
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Site Assemblage Scenario #11: Waterfront Park STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION: TERTIARY A 24.9‐acre site assembly on US 41 and the Caloosahatchee River suitable for use as a public waterfront park, performance center, food services, recreation area, esplanade, and boat launch. Development program is for an 1,800‐seat amphitheater, 15,000 SF of food service/entertainment space, a 200 foot‐long fishing pier/water taxi terminal, 4,000 feet of jogging trails/bike paths, 3,000 feet of bulkheaded esplanade, a concrete‐ramped public boat launch, tennis and pickle‐ball courts, and on‐site parking for 800 cars. Inclusion of the amphitheater in this model assumes that the planned amphitheater at the Fort Myers’ Harborside Event center/Hotel may be delayed or not achieved at all. Siting of this facility in NFM represents a viable alternative to Harborside. Existing food service facilities would be repositioned to service park visitors and new drinking places and tourism retail added as entertainment drivers (like Marinatown). Existing lodging and business property owners would be offered relocation stipends for suitable Lee County‐ owned properties located further up US 41 (refer to Exhibit 7.1(5)), otherwise fair market value acquisitions of remaining property would be necessary. The new waterfront park would be considered expandable into State of Florida land on the eastern side the North Cleveland Ave./US 41 causeway, similar to the North River Park currently located on the western side. A continuous jogging trail/bike would connect both park areas at the foot of the causeway (dropping down to water level below the roadway). Coordination with the North Fort Myers Recreational Center is encouraged as a means of exploring and promoting new cycling and jogging opportunities on the Cleveland Ave. Bridge as currently occurring on the Edison Bridge. A new fishing pier and water taxi terminal could be constructed on the City of Fort Myers’ submerged property adjacent to North Shore Park. By either installation of new signalized intersection or an elevated pedestrian walkway crossing over US 41, weekday ferry riders would be able to park vehicles within the new waterfront park parking areas and safely cross US 41 to access the pier. Aeration fountains placed just offshore from the park bulkhead would provide water quality control as well as a pleasing visual amenity. Park construction including food service/entertainment facilities are projected to create 138 new construction jobs over a two‐year period and generate an economic impact from construction of $31.7 million for the Lee County economy. Park operations including the
DCG Corplan Consulting LLC Team DCG Corplan Norman E Taylor & Associates, LLC Page 277 D‐H & Associates Consulting, LLC North Fort Myers Market Based Assessment – Phase One #CN160044 – FINAL REPORT amphitheater and all recreation venues are projected to create 10 jobs and produce and produce annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $1.8 million. Food service/drinking/tourism operations are projected to create 45 jobs and produce and produce annual economic impact after reaching stabilized occupancy of $3.2 million. Visitors to the park will be considered as local and therefore not generating additional impacts.
Total Assemblage Total Assemblage Total Assemblage GIS Acres 2016 Taxes Just Appraisal (Market Value) 24.890 $77,824 $4,848,522 Ratio of Parking Land Area per Parking Assumed Open Number of Lot acreage Spaces/1,000 sf Space SF Space Stories 33.8 5 350 70% 2 Number of Footprint SF Parking Spaces Parking Area Total SF Building Total SF FAR 163,000 915 320,250 183,000 0.12 Economic Impact – Waterfront Park Construction Total Waterfront Park Development costs (not including land) $22,106,700 Value Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Added Output Direct Effect 138 $5,917,115 $9,446,635 $21,133,771 Indirect Effect 46 $1,935,077 $3,174,526 $5,819,262 Induced Effect 38 $1,454,888 $2,745,829 $4,725,788 Total Effect 221 $9,307,078 $15,366,990 $31,678,821 Economic Impact – Waterfront Park Operations Total Waterfront Park Revenue $1,060,100 Value Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Output Added Direct Effect 10 $240,863 $365,438 $960,101 Indirect Effect 6 $178,549 $301,873 $578,931 Induced Effect 2 $77,540 $146,304 $251,774 Total Effect 17 $496,953 $813,616 $1,790,806 Food Service/Entertainment Operations Total Food Service/Entertainment Sales $2,250,000 Value Impact Type Employment (local) Labor Income Output Added Direct Effect 45 $1,204,447 $1,263,277 $2,019,044 Indirect Effect 3 $126,321 $236,344 $426,900 Induced Effect 6 $246,638 $465,499 $801,172 Total Effect 55 $1,577,406 $1,965,120 $3,247,116
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Total development and construction is scheduled for two years, with 60% of work and employment occurring in the first year, and 40% in the second. Park operations will begin in the third Project year (Occupancy year 1) at 75% occupancy, increasing to 90%, and finally 100% in the 2nd and 3rdyear of occupancy, respectively. Property taxes are not considered as this is a public and therefore tax exempt investment. Accordingly, there are no incentives applicable. Barring any specific means of estimating Park operational expenses, this figure will be arbitrarily set at $1.0 million per year, following the ramp‐up of park operational percentages. Property acquisition costs, somewhat possible through negotiated land swaps, may ultimately result in eminent domain takings and the Just value of $4.8 million from above may be the most reasonable approach to this valuation. Amortization of this amount at 3.5% interest (prime rate) for ten years results in an annual payment of $612,750. Annual debt service (30‐year term at 3.5% interest) on the $22,860,800 waterfront park construction cost is $1.189 million. The Economic Impact Multiplier (total benefit/total cost) is 2.2 to one, resulting in a minor yet still positive value for Lee County.
Total Park Property Total Park Park Park Food Economic Operational Acquis. Expenses Constr. Oper. Srv/Ent Project Time Impacts Expenses Financing and Costs Jobs Jobs Jobs Year 2 ‐ Park $0 $612,750 $1,801,350 83 7 35 Construction ‐ Year 1 $19,190,900 Year 2 ‐ Park $12,487,921 $0 $612,750 $1,801,350 54 9 42 Construction ‐ Year 2 Year 3 ‐ Park $3,940,216 $750,000 $612,750 $2,551,350 0 10 45 Operations ‐ Year 1 Year 4 ‐ Park $4,383,454 $900,000 $612,750 $2,701,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 2 Year 5 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 3 Year 6 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 4 Year 7 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 5 Year 8 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 6 Year 9 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 7 Year 10 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $612,750 $2,801,350 0 10 45 Operations Year 8 Year 11 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $0 $2,188,600 0 10 45 Operations Year 9 Year 12 ‐ Park $5,037,922 $1,000,000 $0 $2,188,600 0 10 45 Operations Year 10
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Total $80,305,867 $30,040,700 190 732 NPV (5% discount) $63,402,094 $21,971,966 Ratio of Economic Impacts/Total Costs 2.2
Summary
The eleven site assemblage scenarios presented in this section have different outcomes and risks inherent with the scale of required investments. In all but the last study, private owners are encouraged to form equity partnerships with developers to minimize upfront expense exposure and provide lucrative long‐term opportunities for all involved. For Lee County, the provision of incentives to support these assemblages have been demonstrated as worthwhile endeavors. Even for the capital‐intensive Waterfront Park scenario, the rewards of establishing a “sense of place” for the Study Area and thereby offering a truly publicly accessible waterfront is worth the investment despite what might appear as a marginal return. In summarizing the eleven studies, the two following tables provide two different ranking approaches. In the Table 7.2(1), the eleven scenarios are listed in descending order of Ratio of Economic Impact to Incentive cost to show how the range of investment reward is structured. Clearly, the office projects generate the highest return and are recommended as Primary or initial strategies for the Study Area’s revitalization. The Secondary group contains targeted and non‐targeted industries which could be addressed in a later period, and the Tertiary group are of less robust returns and probably should not be undertaken until other efforts prove successful.
Table 7.2(1) – Ranking of Ratios of Economic Impact to Incentive Cost Ratio of Economic Impacts/Total Strategy Site Assemblage Scenario Costs (incentives) Rank Order GovEducHC 788.7 1 PRIMARY Professional Office ‐ Lowrise 602.2 2 PRIMARY Office Flex‐Wholesale 589.3 3 PRIMARY Offices MidRise1 502.2 4 PRIMARY Offices MidRise2 496.4 5 PRIMARY Retail Center 352.7 6 SECONDARY Sports/Recreation 342.9 7 SECONDARY Condos MidRise 337.8 8 SECONDARY Restaurants 172.8 9 SECONDARY
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Hotel MidRise 70.8 10 TERTIARY Waterfront Park 2.2 11 TERTIARY Source: DCG Corplan Consulting
In the second Table 7.2(2) below, the same scenarios are ranked by their overall incentive cost to demonstrate the range of financial exposure to the County.
Table 7.2(2) – Ranking of Incentives Cost by Net Present Value (NPV) Strategy Site Assemblage Scenario NPV Incentive (Cost) Rank Order Sports/Recreation $221,455 1 SECONDARY Retail Center $233,028 2 SECONDARY
Office Flex‐Wholesale $278,547 3 PRIMARY Restaurants $388,812 4 SECONDARY Condos MidRise $390,114 5 SECONDARY
Professional Office ‐ Lowrise $872,002 6 PRIMARY Offices MidRise1 $1,102,657 7 PRIMARY Hotel MidRise $1,139,125 8 TERTIARY
Offices MidRise2 $1,212,460 9 PRIMARY GovEducHC $1,587,671 10 PRIMARY Waterfront Park $21,971,966 11 TERTIARY
Source: DCG Corplan Consulting
While neither ranking approach can truly be considered as superior, it is in DCG Corplan’s opinion more important to seek higher return ratios than be overly concerned with the degree of incentive figures. Regardless of the approach chosen, the pathway forward to the Study Area’s revitalization will depend largely on the willingness of the County, the local property owners, and stakeholders to utilize the information presented in this report as a foundation to “move the needle” and establish the catalyst for dynamic change.
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