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2016 Post Election Results and Analysis Webinar

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2016 Post Election Results and Analysis Webinar 2016 New York State Election Overview Brian Lucey, Esq., Kevin Quinn, Esq. Whiteman Osterman & Hanna LLP November 10, 2016 NYS Legislature BEFORE 2016 Elections Senate (63) Assembly (150) 32 GOP 105 Dems 26 Dem 42 GOP 5 IDC 3 Vacant NYS Legislature AFTER 2016 Elections Senate (63) Assembly (150) 33 GOP 107 Dem 23 Dem 43 GOP 7 IDC Global Election Dynamics in NYS Turnout Impact of SuperPACs Turnout • 2008 (Obama 1st term) percentage of voter turnout – 59.6% • 2008 number of eligible voters – 12,948,969 • 2008 number of ballots counted – 7,721,718 • 2012 (Obama 2nd term) percentage of voter turnout – 53.5% • 2012 number of eligible voters – 13,324,107 • 2012 number of ballots counted – 7,128,852 • 2014 (gubernatorial election) percentage of voter turnout – 29% • 2014 number of eligible voters – 13,533,426 • 2014 number of ballots counted – 3,930,310 • 2016 percentage of voter turnout – 52.2 % • 2016 number of eligible voters – 13,693,128 • 2016 number of ballots counted – 7,160,725 (as of 11/9/16, per NYS BOE) • Source: United States Election Project, University of Florida, http://www.electproject.org/home. Percentage of voter turnout is a calculation of ballots counted divided by the number of eligible voters, adjusting the voting-age population for non-citizens and ineligible felons. $uperPAC, Other Political Contributions • Per 11/6 NYT, 12 SuperPACS have spent over $14 million since the September primaries. Samples include: • New Yorkers for a Balanced Albany (Students First) - $5,000,000 Phillips, Marcellino, Jacobs, Venditto, Serino, Murphy, Gaughran • Fund for Great Public Schools (NYSUT) - $3,900,000 Small, Eachus, Haber • Jobs for New York (REBNY) - $602,000 Jacobs, Marcellino, Serino • New Yorkers Together (Comm. Workers of America) - $426,000 Small, Cronin • New Yorkers for Quality Health Care (Greater NY) - $352,000 Hannon, Larkin • Balance New York (NYC Landlords) - $335,000 Larkin • Stronger Neighborhoods (Airbnb) - $264,000 Gaughran, Amedore, Gipson $uperPAC, Other Political Contributions • Other PAC highlights . New Yorkers for Independent Action (conservative, education tax credit group) spent over $1 million to oppose Assembly candidates Woerner, Russell, Ceretto . $4.5 million in Super PAC contributions in late October-early November . $6 million spent on 7th Senate District alone! • Party Committee Spending DACC spent $2.7 million, from Oct. 4-24 RACC spent $844,172 SRCC spent $3.2 million DSCC spent $1.3 million NYS Party Enrollment up, except for GOP 2012 (10.97 million total) 2016 (11.48 million total) Dems – 5,400,000 Dems 5,670,000 Conservatives – 145,124 Conservatives – 151,971 Greens – 19,823 Greens – 25,857 Independents – 430,072 Independents – 454,006 WFP – 40,961 WFP – 44,366 Women’s Equality – 2,232 Reform - 891 GOP – 2,680,000 GOP – 2,650,000 Source: NYS Board of Elections 2016 NY Senate 2016 NY Senate (63 seats) Republican (32) 31 Republicans 1 Democrat Caucusing With the Republicans Democrat (26) 26 Democrats IDC (5) Klein, Valesky, Savino, Carlucci, Avella ------------------ Vacancies (6) Martins, Espaillat, Hassel- Thompson, Farley, Nozzolio, Panepinto 60th SD: th JACOBS v. Small 46 SD AMEDORE v. Niccoli 41st SD SERINO v. Gipson 40th SD MURPHY v. Boak 39th SD th LARKIN v. Eachus 37 SD LATIMER v Killian 7th SD Haber v. PHILLIPS 5th SD MARCELLINO v. Gaughran 6th SD HANNON v. Cornin 8th SD VENDITTO v. Brooks 9th SD KAMINSKY v. McGrath Senate Seats in Play 5th SD/Suffolk & Nassau Counties: Incumbent Carl Marcellino (R) v. James Gaughran (D). Anti-testing/opt-out activists targeted Marcellino for defeat. Race undecided. 6th SD/Nassau County: Incumbent Kemp Hannon (R) v. Ryan Cronin (D). Democrats have an enrollment advantage, though Hannon had the larger war chest and won handily. 7th SD/Nassau County: Flower Hill Mayor Elaine Phillips (R) defeated Democrat Adam Haber in a race to replace Jack Martins (who ran for Congress and lost). 8th SD/Nassau County: Incumbent Michael Venditto (R) v. John Brooks (D). Seat was in play, given recent corruption scandal involving Venditto’s father, Oyster Bay Town Supervisor John Venditto. At last count, Brooks held a slim 33-vote lead. 39th SD/Hudson Valley: Incumbent William Larkin (R) was in a repeat race against retired teacher Chris Eachus (D), but won by over 16,000 votes. 40th SD/Hudson Valley: First-termer Terrance Murphy (R) beat Ali Boak (D) by over 20,000 votes. 41st SD/Hudson Valley: First-termer Sue Serino (R) beat Terry Gipson (D) in a rematch by nearly 15,000 votes. 46th SD/Capital Region: First-termer George Amedore (R) beat Sara Niccoli (D) by over 30,000 votes. This was the new (“63rd”) district drawn for Amedore in the 2012 redistricting process, which he lost in the Fall 2012 election by a mere 18 votes, but won back in 2014. 60th SD/Buffalo: Former Erie County Executive Chris Jacobs coasted to victory over novice Democrat Amber Small. He will replace departing Democrat Marc Panepinto, and in so doing moves this seat back into the majority conference. Other Senate races 9th SD/Nassau County: Todd Kaminsky (D) defeated Christopher McGrath (R), by a 5700 vote margin. The incumbent Kaminsky had also beaten McGrath in the April 2016 special election to replace former majority leader Dean Skelos. 37th SD/Westchester County: George Latimer (D) won by a comfortable 12,000+ vote margin against a well-funded GOP opponent, Julie Killian. 31st SD/Manhattan: Marisol Alcantra (D) easily defeated her opponent in this Democrat-heavy district, and has signaled her desire to join the IDC. Departing Sen. Adriano Espaillat has become part of the New York congressional delegation, taking over veteran Charlie Rangel’s seat. Independent Democratic Conference • Formed in 2011 by Senators Klein (Bronx), Savino (Staten Island), Valesky (Syracuse), and Carlucci (Rockland County), after Republicans re-gained control of the Senate in the 2010 elections • Avella (Queens) joined in 2014 • Jesse Hamilton (Brooklyn) and Marisol Alcantra (Manhattan) expected to join in 2017 2017 NY Senate (*presumes 5th SD and 8th SD incumbents win) 33* GOP 23 Dem 7 IDC Assembly Battleground 113th AD/Saratoga, Washington Counties: Incumbent Carrie Woerner beat Air Force veteran and small business owner Christopher Boyark by a larger margin than in their 2014 contest. 115th AD/North Country: Franklin County legislator Billy Jones (D) defeated Franklin County Sheriff Kevin Mulverhill (R), converting this minority seat to the majority. Jones will replace retiring Assemblymember Janet Duprey (R). 116th AD/St. Lawrence River Valley: Incumbent Addie Russell (D) was in a rematch against GOP veteran and businessman John Byrne, whom she beat by only 95 votes in 2014. Her margin of victory this year increased to nearly 2300 votes. 145th AD/Niagara Falls: Incumbent John Ceretto (D) lost to retired city court judge Angelo Morinello (R). Ceretto had switched from D to R in recent years, then back to D in 2015. Local Republicans mounted a successful effort to oust Ceretto, using recent allegations over misuse of office funds for electoral work as leverage. Size of the Democratic majority has been the only unknown going into the fall elections for the past 40+ years. Recent trends show the majority hovering around two-thirds (97 -106). DACC spent nearly ¼ of its war chest on the Ceretto race. Pro-education tax credit super PAC, New Yorkers for Independent Action, spent over $1 million to oust Woerner, Russell and Ceretto. Congress before 2016 Elections House of Representatives Senate (100) (435) 54 GOP 246 GOP 44 Dems 186 Dem 2 Indep 3 Vacant Congress AFTER 2016 Elections (*Louisiana Senate runoff 12/10/16) House of Representatives Senate (100) (435) 51 GOP 46 Dems 241 GOP 2 Indep 194 Dem 1* Vacant NY congressional delegation 2017 2016 19 Dem 19 Dem 8 GOP 8 GOP Competitive congressional races, but no party shifts 3rd CD/Nassau County: Open seat to replace Steve Israel (D) Jack Martins (R) v. Tom Suozzi (D) 19th CD/Capital Region: Open seat to replace Chris Gibson (R) John Faso (R) v. Zephyr Teachout (D) 22nd CD/Mohawk Valley: Open seat to replace Richard Hanna (R) Claudia Tenney (R) v. Kim Myers (D) v. Martin Babinec (I) 24th CD/Syracuse: John Katko (R) v. Colleen Deacon (D) 25th CD/Rochester: Louise Slaughter (D) v. Mark Assini (R) What to Expect from the Trump Administration What to Expect from the Trump Administration Trade Agreements Repeal of the Affordable Care Act Infrastructure Investment Applying Free Market Principles to Government Policy Immigration Reform Pharma/Medical Device Issues Medicare direct negotiations of drug prices Importation Repeal of the Medical Device tax Speeding FDA drug and device approvals Medicaid Block Grant.
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