Uroczystość nadania Ceremony of conferring upon Profesorowi Professor Malayowi Ghoshowi Malay Ghosh tytułu the doctor honoris causa degree doktora honoris causa of the University of Economics Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego in Katowice w Katowicach

Katowice 14 maja 2021 roku / 14 May 2021

Spis treści / List of contents 5 Słowo wstępne / Introduction 9 Dyplom doktora honoris causa / Honoris causa degree diploma 11 Kalendarium / Schedule of events 13 Biografia / Biography 27 Laudacja / Eulogy 43 Recenzje / Reviews 59 Wykład / Lecture

Słowo wstępne Introduction

Szanowni Państwo, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Przed współczesnym Uniwersytetem stoją wyzwania Today’s university faces the challenge of conducting prowadzenia badań naukowych na światowym pozio- world-class scientific research, fostering international mie, rozwijania współpracy międzynarodowej i popu- cooperation and disseminating scientific developments. laryzacji nauki. Aby sprostać tym wyzwaniom, należy With this end in view it is necessary to follow and ac- obserwować i doceniać w tym zakresie najlepsze praktyki knowledge the best practices adopted by universities uniwersytetów na świecie i pracujących tam badaczy. and their researchers across the world. Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach podejmu- The University of Economics in Katowice, committed jąc zadanie rozwoju naukowego, postanowił wyróżnić to the pursuit of scientific excellence, has resolved to dokonania osoby, która będąc wybitnym naukowcem recognise the achievements of an eminent scientist in- i niestrudzonym popularyzatorem nauki, jednocześnie defatigably involved in the popularisation of science, współpracuje z naszą Alma Mater. who works closely with our Alma Mater. Osobą, która otrzymuje najwyższą godność aka- The person to be awarded the highest academic demicką – doktorat honoris causa – jest Pan Profesor honour – the doctor honoris causa degree – is Professor Malay Ghosh, Distinguished Professor z University of Malay Ghosh, Distinguished Professor at the University Florida, światowy autorytet w zakresie teorii statystyki of Florida, a world authority in the field of statistical oraz jej zastosowań m. in. w naukach ekonomicznych theory and its applications in, inter alia, economic and i społecznych. social sciences. Pan Profesor Malay Ghosh jest nam szczególnie Professor Malay Ghosh is our highly valued partner, bliski ze względu na współpracę z Katedrą Statystyki, who has been cooperating with the Department of Ekonometrii i Matematyki w Kolegium Zarządzania. Statistics, Econometrics and Mathematics at the College

7 Słowo wstępne/Introduction

Z ogromną radością przyjmujemy fakt, że Pan Profesor of Management. We wholeheartedly welcome the fact dostrzegł dokonania zespołu z Katowic, zaś wspólne pola that the accomplishments of the Katowice research team zainteresowań naukowych przekładają się na konkretne have caught Professor’s attention, and that our shared inicjatywy, m. in. wykłady gościnne, międzynarodowe scientific interests translate into specific initiatives, such as seminaria i publikacje. visiting lectures, international seminars and publications. Prof. Malay Ghosh tym samym stał się ambasadorem Professor Malay Ghosh has thereby become our naszej Uczelni na świecie, dlatego z największym sza- University’s global ambassador. It is, therefore, a great cunkiem i ogromną radością nadajemy godność doktora honour and pleasure to confer the degree of doctor honoris causa, włączając Pana Profesora w społeczność honoris causa on Professor Ghosh and thus admit him Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach. into the community of the University of Economics in Katowice. Vivat Academia, Vivant Professores! Vivat Academia, Vivant Professores!

Rektor Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach prof. dr hab. inż. Celina M. Olszak Rector of the University of Economics in Katowice Prof. Celina M. Olszak, Ph.D., D.Sc. Przewodniczący Kolegium Zarządzania prof. dr hab. Wojciech Dyduch Head of the College of Management Prof. Wojciech Dyduch, Ph.D.

8

Dyplom Diploma

Kalendarium Schedule of events

28.11.2019 Senat Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach posta- The Senate of the University of Economics in Katowice nawia wszcząć postępowanie w sprawie nadania tytułu resolves to initiate the proceedings aimed at conferring doktora honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego the degree of doctor honoris causa of the University of w Katowicach Profesorowi Malayowi Ghoshowi oraz Economics in Katowice upon Professor Malay Ghosh. The wyznaczyć: Senate appoints: 1. Profesora dra hab. Janusza Wywiała (Uniwersytet 1. Professor Janusz Wywiał (University of Economics Ekonomiczny w Katowicach) na promotora, in Katowice) as a supervisor, 2. Profesora Yvesa Bergera (Uniwersytet w South������- 2. Professor Yvesa Berger (University of Southamp- ampton) na recenzenta, ton) as a reviewer, 3. Profesora Ralfa Münnicha (Uniwersytet w Trewirze) 3. Professor Ralf Münnich (University of Trier) as na recenzenta a reviewer dorobku naukowego i osiągnięć Profesora Malaya Ghosha of Prof. Malay Ghosh’s scientific output and achievements w postępowaniu w sprawie nadania mu tytułu doktora in the said proceedings. honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.

30.01.2020 Po zapoznaniu się z recenzjami Senat Uniwersytetu Having read the reviews, the Senate of the University Ekonomicznego w Katowicach podejmuje uchwałę of Economics in Katowice adopts a resolution to confer o nadaniu Panu Profesorowi Malayowi Ghoshowi tytułu the degree of doctor honoris causa of the University of doktora honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego Economics in Katowice upon Professor Malay Ghosh. w Katowicach.

14.05.2021 Następuje uroczyste nadanie Panu Profesorowi Malayowi The ceremony of the conferment of the degree of doctor Ghoshowi doktoratu honoris causa Uniwersytetu Eko- honoris causa of the University of Economics in Katowice nomicznego w Katowicach. upon Professor Malay Ghosh takes place.

13 Malay Ghosh Biografia Biography

Dane osobowe: Personal Information: • Imię i nazwisko: • Name: Malay Ghosh Malay Ghosh • Data urodzenia: • Date of birth: 15.04.1944 April 15, 1944 • Miejsce urodzin: • Place of birth: Kalkuta, Indie Calcutta, India • Stan cywilny: • Marital status: żonaty, dwoje dzieci Married with two children • Obywatelstwo: • Citizenship: amerykańskie American • Adres służbowy: • Office address: Department of Statistics Department of Statistics University of Florida University of Florida 223 Griffin-Floyd Hall 223 Griffin-Floyd Hall P.O. Box 8545 P.O. Box 8545 Gainesville, FL 32611-8545 Gainesville, FL 32611-8545

Wykształcenie: Educational Qualifications: • Stopień licencjata w dziedzinie statystyki (z wyróż- • Graduated (B.A.) with Statistics (Honors) in 1962 nieniem), 1962, Calcutta University; First Class First, from the Calcutta University, Calcutta; First Class Gold Medalist. First, Gold Medalist. • Stopień magistra w dziedzinie statystyki, 1964, • Graduated (M.A.) in Statistics in 1964 from the Calcutta University; First Class First, Gold Medalist. Calcutta University, Calcutta; First Class First, Gold • Stopień doktora nauk statystycznych, 1969, ����Uni- Medalist. versity of North Carolina, North Carolina. • Graduated (Ph.D.) in Statistics in 1969 from the University of North Carolina, North Carolina.

15 Biografia/Biography

Doświadczenie zawodowe: Professional Experience: 1. Lecturer in Statistics, Presidency College, Calcutta 1. Lecturer in Statistics, Presidency College, Calcutta (kwiecień – sierpień 1966). (April – August 1966). 2. Research Assistant, Department of Statistics, UNC, 2. Research Assistant, Department of Statistics, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (wrzesień – maj 1967). Chapel Hill, NC (September – May 1967). 3. Business Mathematician, Corporate Headquarters, 3. Business Mathematician, Corporate Headquarters, IBM, Armonk, NY (czerwiec – sierpień 1967). IBM, Armonk, NY (June – August 1967). 4. Research Assistant, Department of Statistics, UNC, 4. Research Assistant, Department of Statistics, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (wrzesień 1967 – maj 1968). Chapel Hill, NC (September 1967 – May 1968). 5. Research Assistant, Department of Biostatistics, UNC 5. Research Assistant, Department of Biostatistics, UNC Chapel Hill, NC (czerwiec 1968 – sierpień 1969). Chapel Hill, NC (June 1968 – August 1969). 6. Post Doctoral Fellow, Department of Biostatistics, 6. Post Doctoral Fellow, Department of Biostatistics, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (wrzesień 1969 – sierpień 1970). UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (September 1969 – August 1970). 7. Systems Engineer, IBM World Trade Corporation, 7. Systems Engineer, IBM World Trade Corporation, Calcutta, India (listopad 1970 – styczeń 1971). Calcutta, India (November 1970 – January 1971). 8. Associate Professor, Indian Statistical Institute, 8. Associate Professor, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, India (luty 1971 – październik 1977). Calcutta, India (February 1971 – October 1977). 9. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Biostatis- 9. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Biosta- tics, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (czerwiec 1974 – sierpień 1974). tistics, UNC, Chapel Hill, NC (June 1974 – August 1974). 10. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, 10. Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (wrzesień 1974 – Iowa State University, Ames, IA (September 1974 – – maj 1977). – May 1977). 11. Professor, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, India 11. Professor, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, India (listopad 1977 – luty 1978). (November 1977 – February 1978). 12. Professor, Department of Statistics, Iowa State 12. Professor, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA (marzec 1978 – lipiec 1982). University, Ames, IA (March 1978 – July 1982). 13. Professor, Department of Statistics, University of 13. Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL (sierpień 1982 – lipiec 1998). Florida, Gainesville, FL (August 1982 – July 1998). 14. Distinguished Professor, Department of Statistics, Uni- 14. Distinguished Professor, Department of Statistics, Uni- versity of Florida, Gainesville, FL (sierpień 1998 – teraz). versity of Florida, Gainesville, FL (August 1998 – thus far).

16 Biografia/Biography

15. ASA Senior Research Fellow (styczeń 15, 1990 – lipiec 15, 15. ASA Senior Research Fellow (January 15, 1990 – July 1990): 50% at the Bureau of the Census; 50% at the 15, 1990): 50% at the Bureau of the Census; 50% at Bureau of Labor Statistics. the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 16. Eugene Lukacs Distinguished Visiting Professor of 16. Eugene Lukacs Distinguished Visiting Professor of Statistics at the Bowling Green State University Statistics at the Bowling Green State University (jesień, 1993). (Fall, 1993). 17. Visiting Professor of Biostatistics, University of Min- 17. Visiting Professor of Biostatistics, University of nesota (marzec – maj, 1994). Minnesota (March – May, 1994). 18. ASA/NSF/Census Research Fellow (sierpień – grudzień, 18. ASA/NSF/Census Research Fellow (August – December, 2001). 2001). 19. Visiting Professor, Texas A & M University (styczeń – 19. Visiting Professor, Texas A & M University (January – – kwiecień, 2002). – April, 2002). 20. Visiting Professor, Australian National University, 20. Visiting Professor, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia (luty, 2006). Canberra, Australia (February, 2006). 21. ASA/NSF/Census Research Fellow (sierpień – grudzień, 21. ASA/NSF/Census Research Fellow (August – December, 2008). 2008). 22. Visiting Professor, National University of Singapore 22. Visiting Professor, National University of Singapore (styczeń – kwiecień, 2009). (January – April, 2009). 23. Visiting Fellow, SAMSI (styczeń – kwiecień, 2014). 23. Visiting Fellow, SAMSI (January – April, 2014). 24. Visiting Professor, University of Technology, Sydney 24. Visiting Professor, University of Technology, Sydney (kwiecień, 2016). (April, 2016).

Wyróżnienia zawodowe: Professional Honor: • Elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association. • Elected Fellow of the American Statistical Association. • Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical • Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. Statistics. • Elected Member of the International Statistical • Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. Institute. • Elected Fellow of the International Society for • Elected Fellow of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. Bayesian Analysis.

17 Biografia/Biography

• Morris Hansen Lecture organized by the Washington • Morris Hansen Lecture organized by the Washington Statistical Society in 2018. Statistical Society in 2018.

Nagrody: Awards: • T.I.P., 1994. • Recipient of T.I.P., 1994. • P.E.P., 1996. • Recipient of P.E.P., 1996. • Medal im. Jerzego Spławy-Neymana w 100. rocznicę • Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal at the 100th Anni- Polskiego Towarzystwa Statystycznego, kwiecień versary of the Polish Statistical Society, April 2012. 2012. • Lifetime Achievement Award from the International • Lifetime Achievement Award przyznana przez Inter- Indian Statistical Association, December 2017. national Indian Statistical Association, grudzień 2017. • Small Area Estimation Award 2019. • Small Area Estimation Award 2019. • Samuel S. Wilks Award from the American Statistical • Samuel S. Wilks Award from the American Statistical Association in 2020. Association in 2020. Editorial Experience: Doświadczenie redakcyjne: 1. Member of the Editorial Board of “Journal of Statistical 1. Member of the Editorial Board of “Journal of Statistical Research”. Research”. 2. Member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics in 2. Member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics in Transition”. Transition”. 3. Member of the Editorial Board of “Brazilian Journal 3. Member of the Editorial Board of “Brazilian Journal of Statistics”. of Statistics”. 4. Editor of the “The Indian Journal of Statistics – Offi- 4. Editor of the „Sankhya B” (lipiec 2007 – grudzień cial Journal of Indian Statistical Institute. Sankhya B” 2011). (July, 2007 – December, 2011). 5. Editor of the “Sequential Analysis” (styczeń 1996 – 5. Editor of the “Sequential Analysis: Design Methods – grudzień 2003). and Applications” (January, 1996 – December, 2003). 6. Editorial Secretary of the “Sankhya” (sierpień 1972 – 6. Editorial Secretary of the “Sankhya” (August 1972 – – lipiec 1974). – July 1974). 7. Member, Journal Committee of “Sankhya” A and B 7. Member of the “Journal Committee of Sankhya (sierpień 1976 – grudzień 1999). A and B” (August 1976 – December, 1999).

18 Biografia/Biography

8. Associate Editor of the Book Reviews Section of the 8. Associate Editor of the Book Reviews Section of “Journal of the American Statistical Association” the “Journal of the American Statistical Association” (listopad 1980 – luty 1983). (November 1980 – February 1983). 9. Member of the Editorial Board of “Sequential Analysis” 9. Member of the Editorial Board of “Sequential (styczeń 1981 – grudzień 1995). Analysis” (January 1981 – December, 1995). 10. Member of the Advisory Board of “Statistics and 10. Member of the Advisory Board of “Statistics and Decisions” (listopad 1980 – grudzień 1988). Decisions” (November 1980 – December 1988). 11. Member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics and 11. Member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics and Decisions” (styczeń 1989 – grudzień 2001). Decisions” (January 1989 – December, 2001). 12. Co-Editor of the Special Issue of “Communications 12. Co-Editor of the Special Issue of “Communications in Statistics” entitled: “Stein-Type Multivariate in Statistics”, entitled: “Stein-Type Multivariate Estimation” (1986). Estimation” (1986). 13. Member of the Editorial Board of “Communications 13. Member of the Editorial Board of “Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods” (październik 1987 – in Statistics – Theory and Methods” (October 1987 – – grudzień 1994). – December, 1994). 14. Associate Editor of the “Journal of Nonparametric 14. Associate Editor of the “Journal of Nonparametric Statistics” (styczeń 1990 – grudzień 1992). Statistics” (January 1990 – December 1992). 15. Associate Editor of the “Journal of Statistical Plan- 15. Associate Editor of the “Journal of Statistical Plan- ning and Inference” (styczeń 1992 – grudzień 1994). ning and Inference” (January 1992 – December, 1994. 16. Adjunct Associate Editor of the “Annals of Statistics” 16. Adjunct Associate Editor of the “Annals of Statistics” (1994). (1994). 17. Member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics” (lipiec 17. Member of the Editorial Board of Statistics (July, 1994 – 1994 – grudzień 2000). – December, 2000). 18. Co-Editor of the „Sankhya” (styczeń 2000 – grudzień 18. Co-Edito of the “Sankhya” (January, 2000 – December, 2007). 2007). 19. Associate Editor of the “American Statistician” (styczeń 19. Associate Editor of the “The American Statistician” 2000 – grudzień 2008). (January, 2000 – December, 2008). 20. Associate Editor of the “Metron” (styczeń 2003 – 20. Associate Editor of the “Metron” (January, 2003 – – grudzień 2006). – December, 2006).

19 Biografia/Biography

Monografie: Monographs: • Sequential Estimation (with N. Mukhopadhyay and • Sequential Estimation (with N. Mukhopadhyay and P.K. Sen). John Wiley and Sons, New York 1997. P.K. Sen). John Wiley and Sons, New York 1997. • Bayesian Methods for Finite Population Sampling • Bayesian Methods for Finite Population Sampling (with G. Meeden). Chapman and Hall, New York 1997. (with G. Meeden). Chapman and Hall, New York 1997. • Current Issues in Statistical Inference: Essays in • Current Issues in Statistical Inference: Essays in Honor of D. Basu (Co-Edited with P.K. Pathak). Honor of D. Basu (Co-Edited with P.K. Pathak). IMS Lectures Notes Monograph Series Number 17, IMS Lectures Notes Monograph Series Number 17, Cambridge, MA 1992. Cambridge, MA 1992.

Wybrane artykuły (spośród 306 publikacji): Selected papers (out of 306 publications): • On Bounded Length Sequential Confidence �����Inter� • On Bounded Length Sequential Confidence Inter� vals Based on One-Sample Rank-Order Statistics vals Based on One-Sample Rank-Order Statistics (with P.K. Sen) [1971], “The Annals of Mathematical (with P.K. Sen) [1971], “The Annals of Mathematical Statistics”, Vol. 42, pp. 189–203. Statistics”, Vol. 42, pp. 189–203. • On a Class of Rank Order Tests for Regression with • On a Class of Rank Order Tests for Regression with Partially Informed Stochastic Predictors (with P.K. Sen) Partially Informed Stochastic Predictors (with P.K. Sen) [1971], “The Annals of Mathematical Statistics”, Vol. 42, [1971], “The Annals of Mathematical Statistics”, Vol. 42, pp. 650–661. pp. 650–661. • On the Wald Optimality of Rank-Order Tests for • On the Wald Optimality of Rank-Order Tests for Paired Comparisons [1971], “The Annals of Mathe- Paired Comparisons [1971], “The Annals of Math- matical Statistics”, Vol. 42, pp. 1970–1976. ematical Statistics”, Vol. 42, pp. 1970–1976. • Nonparametric Methods in Longitudinal Studies • Nonparametric Methods in Longitudinal Studies (with J.E. Grizzle and P.K. Sen) [1973], “Journal (with J.E. Grizzle and P.K. Sen) [1973], “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 68, of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 68, pp. 29–36. pp. 29–36. • A Law of Iterated Logarithm for One Sample Rank • A Law of Iterated Logarithm for One Sample Rank Order Statistics and an Application (with P.K. Sen) Order Statistics and an Application (with P.K. Sen) [1973], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 1, pp. 568–576. [1973], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 1, pp. 568–576. • Nonparametric Selection Procedures for Symmetric • Nonparametric Selection Procedures for Symmetric

20 Biografia/Biography

Location Parameter Populations [1973], “The Annals Location Parameter Populations [1973], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 1, pp. 773–779. of Statistics”, Vol. 1, pp. 773–779. • Sequential Rank Tests for Location (with P.K. Sen) • Sequential Rank Tests for Location (with P.K. Sen) [1974], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 2, pp. 540–552. [1974], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 2, pp. 540–552. • Admissibility of Minimaxity of Some Maximum • Admissibility of Minimaxity of Some Maximum Likelihood Estimators When the Parameter Space Likelihood Estimators When the Parameter Space Is Restricted to Integers [1975], “Journal of the Royal Is Restricted to Integers [1975], “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 37, pp. 264–271. Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 37, pp. 264-271. • On the Nonattainability of Chebyshev Bounds (with • On the Nonattainability of Chebyshev Bounds (with G. Meeden) [1977], “The American Statistician”, Vol. 31, G. Meeden) [1977], “The American Statistician”, Vol. 31, pp. 35–36. pp. 35–36. • Probability of Moderate Deviations for Stationary • Probability of Moderate Deviations for Stationary Mixing Processes (with G. Jogesh Babu) [1977], “The Mixing Processes (with G. Jogesh Babu) [1977], “The Annals of Probability”, Vol. 5, pp. 222–234. Annals of Probability”, Vol. 5, pp. 222–234. • Admissibility of Linear Estimators in the One-Para� • Admissibility of Linear Estimators in the One-Pa� meter Exponential Family (with G. Meeden) [1977], rameter Exponential Family (with G. Meeden) [1977], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 5, pp. 772–778. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 5, pp. 772–778. • Sequential Point Estimation of the Difference of Two • Sequential Point Estimation of the Difference of Two Normal Means (with N. Mukhopadhyay) [1980], Normal Means (with N. Mukhopadhyay) [1980], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 8, pp. 221–225. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 8, pp. 221–225. • Admissibility in Finite Problems (with G. Meeden) • Admissibility in Finite Problems (with G. Meeden) [1981], “Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 9, pp. 846–852. [1981], “Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 9, pp. 846–852. • A Note of Strong Unimodality of Order Statistics • A Note of Strong Unimodality of Order Statistics (with J. Huang) [1982], “Journal of the American (with J. Huang) [1982], “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 77, pp. 929–930. Statistical Association”, Vol. 77, pp. 929–930. • Choosing between Experiments: Applications in Fi� • Choosing between Experiments: Applications in nite Population Sampling (with G. Meeden) [1983], Finite Population Sampling (with G. Meeden) [1983], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 11, pp. 296–305. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 11, pp. 296–305. • Construction of Improved Estimators for Multipa� • Construction of Improved Estimators for Multipa� rameter Estimation in Discrete Exponential Fam� rameter Estimation in Discrete Exponential Fami�

21 Biografia/Biography

ilies (with J.T. Hwang and K.W. Tsui) (with discus- lies (with J.T. Hwang and K.W. Tsui) (with dis- sion) [1983], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 11, cussion) [1983], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 11, pp. 351–376. pp. 351–376. • A Note on Bootstrapping the Median (with W.C. Parr, • A Note on Bootstrapping the Median (with W.C. Parr, K. Singh and G.J. Babu) [1984], “The Annals of Sta- K. Singh and G.J. Babu) [1984], “The Annals of Sta- tistics”, Vol. 12, pp. 1130–1135. tistics”, Vol. 12, pp. 1130–1135. • A New Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects Mo� • A New Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects del (with G. Meeden) [1984], “Journal of the Royal Model (with G. Meeden) [1984], “Journal of the Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 46, pp. 474–482. Royal Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 46, pp. • Some Admissible Nonparametric and Finite Popu� 474–482. lation Sampling Estimators (with G. Meeden and • Some Admissible Nonparametric and Finite Popu� S. Vardeman) [1985], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 13, lation Sampling Estimators (with G. Meeden and pp. 811–817. S. Vardeman) [1985], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 13, • Empirical Bayes Estimation in Finite Population pp. 811–817. Sampling (with G. Meeden) [1986], “Journal of • Empirical Bayes Estimation in Finite Population Sam� the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 81, pling (with G. Meeden) [1986], “Journal of the Amer- pp. 1058–1062. ican Statistical Association”, Vol. 81, pp. 1058–1062. • Discussion: Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resam� • Discussion: Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resam� pling Schemes by C.F.J. Wu, [1986], “The Annals of pling Schemes by C.F.J. Wu, [1986], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 14, pp. 1308–1310. Statistics”, Vol. 14, pp. 1308–1310. • Sequential Shrinkage Estimation (with D.M. Nicker- • Sequential Shrinkage Estimation (with D.M. Nicker- son and P.K. Sen) [1987], “The Annals of Statistics”, son and P.K. Sen) [1987], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 15, pp. 817–829. Vol. 15, pp. 817–829. • Robust Empirical Bayes Estimation of Means from • Robust Empirical Bayes Estimation of Means from Stratified Samples (with P. Lahiri), [1987], “Journal Stratified Samples (with P. Lahiri), [1987], “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 82, of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 82, pp. 1153–1162. pp. 1153–1162. • Simultaneous Estimation of Poisson Means under • Simultaneous Estimation of Poisson Means under Entropy Loss (with M.C. Yang), [1988], “The Annals Entropy Loss (with M.C. Yang), [1988], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 16, pp. 278–291. of Statistics”, Vol. 16, pp. 278–291.

22 Biografia/Biography

• Uniform Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation • Uniform Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation for Discrete Distributions with Support Depending for Discrete Distributions with Support Depending on the Parameter (with G.S. Datta) [1989], “The on the Parameter (with G.S. Datta) [1989], “The American Statistician”, Vol. 43, pp. 17–19. American Statistician”, Vol. 43, pp. 17–19. • On the Admissibility of Kaplan-Meier and Related • On the Admissibility of Kaplan-Meier and Related Maximum Likelihood Estimators” (with G. Meeden, Maximum Likelihood Estimators” (with G. Meeden, C. Srinivasan and S. Vardeman) [1989], “The Annals C. Srinivasan and S. Vardeman) [1989], “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 17, pp. 1509–1531. of Statistics”, Vol. 17, pp. 1509–1531. • Median Unbiasedness and Pitman Closeness (with • Median Unbiasedness and Pitman Closeness (with P.K. Sen) [1989], “Journal of the American Statistical P.K. Sen) [1989], “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 84, pp. 1089–1091. Association”, Vol. 84, pp. 1089–1091. • Bayesian Prediction in Linear Models: Applications • Bayesian Prediction in Linear Models: Applications to Small Area Estimation (with G.S. Datta) [1991]. to Small Area Estimation (with G.S. Datta) [1991]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 19, pp. 1148–1170. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 19, pp. 1148–1170. • Constrained Bayes Estimation with Applications • Constrained Bayes Estimation with Applications [1992]. “Journal of the American Statistical Asso- [1992]. “Journal of the American Statistical Asso- ciation”, Vol. 87, pp. 533–540. ciation”, Vol. 87, pp. 533–540. • Some Remarks on Noninformative Priors (with • Some Remarks on Noninformative Priors (with G.S. Datta) [1995]. “Journal of the American Stati- G.S. Datta) [1995]. “Journal of the American Statis- stical Association”, Vol. 90, pp. 1157–1163. tical Association”, Vol. 90, pp. 1157–1163. • On the Invariance of Noninformative Priors (with • On the Invariance of Noninformative Priors (with G.S. Datta) [1996]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 24, G.S. Datta) [1996]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 24, pp. 141–159. pp. 141–159. • Wishart Distribution via Induction [1996]. “The • Wishart Distribution via Induction [1996]. “The American Statistician”, 50, 243–246. American Statistician”, 50, 243–246. • Estimation of Median Income of Four-Person Families: • Estimation of Median Income of Four-Person Families: A Bayesian Time Series Approach (with N. Nangia and A Bayesian Time Series Approach (with N. Nangia and D. Kim) [1996]. “Journal of the American Statistical D. Kim) [1996]. “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 91, pp. 1423–1431. Association”, Vol. 91, pp. 1423–1431. • Second Order Probability Metching Priors (with • Second Order Probability Metching Priors (with

23 Biografia/Biography

R. Mukerjee) [1997]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 84, pp. R. Mukerjee) [1997]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 84, pp. 970–975. 970–975. • Noninformative Priors for Dispersion Models (with • Noninformative Priors for Dispersion Models (with C. Garvan) [1997]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 84, pp. 976–982. C. Garvan) [1997]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 84, pp. 976–982. • Generalized Linear Models for Small Area Estimation • Generalized Linear Models for Small Area Estima� (with K. Natarajan, T.W.F. Stroud and B. Carlin) tion (with K. Natarajan, T.W.F. Stroud and B. Carlin) [1998]. “Journal of the American Statistical Asso- [1998]. “Journal of the American Statistical Associa- ciation, Vol. 93, pp. 273–282. tion, Vol. 93, pp. 273–282. • Bayesian Prediction with Approximate Frequentist Va� • Bayesian Prediction with Approximate Frequentist Va� lidity (with G.S. Datta. R. Mukerjee and T. Sweeting) lidity (with G.S. Datta. R. Mukerjee and T. Sweeting) [2000]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 28, pp. 1414–1426. [2000]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 28, pp. 1414–1426. • An Elementary Derivation of the Wishart Distribution • An Elementary Derivation of the Wishart Distribution (with B.K. Sinha) [2002]. “The American Statistician”, (with B.K. Sinha) [2002]. “The American Statistician”, Vol. 56, pp. 132–133. Vol. 56, pp. 132–133. • On an Exact Probability Matching Property of Right- • On an Exact Probability Matching Property of Right- -Invariant Priors (with T. Severini and R. Mukherjee) -Invariant Priors (with T. Severini and R. Mukherjee) [2002]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 89, pp. 952–957. [2002]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 89, pp. 952–957. • Small Area Estimation Based on NEF-QVF Models and • Small Area Estimation Based on NEF-QVF Models and Survey Weights (with T. Maiti) [2004]. “Biometrika”, Survey Weights (with T. Maiti) [2004]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 91, pp. 95–112. Vol. 91, pp. 95–112. • Hierarchical Bayesian Neural Networks: An Ap� • Hierarchical Bayesian Neural Networks: An Ap� plication to Prostate Cancer Study (with T. Maiti, plication to Prostate Cancer Study (with T. Maiti, D. Kim and A. Tiwari) [2004]. Journal of the Amer- D. Kim and A. Tiwari) [2004]. Journal of the Amer- ican Statistical Association, Vol. 99, pp. 601–608. ican Statistical Association, Vol. 99, pp. 601–608. • Bayesian Classification of Tumors using Gene • Bayesian Classification of Tumors using Gene Ex� Expression Data (with B.K. Mallick and D. Ghosh) pression Data (with B.K. Mallick and D. Ghosh) [2005].” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society”, [2005].” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 67, pp. 219–234. Series B, Vol. 67, pp. 219–234. • Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Matched • Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Matched Case-Control Studies with Missing Exposure (with Case-Control Studies with Missing Exposure (with

24 Biografia/Biography

S. Sinha, B. Mukherjee, B. Mallick and R. Carroll) S. Sinha, B. Mukherjee, B. Mallick and R. Carroll) [2005]. “Journal of the American Statistical Asso- [2005]. “Journal of the American Statistical Asso- ciation”, Vol. 100, pp. 591–601. ciation”, Vol. 100, pp. 591–601. • Nonsubjective Priors via Predictive Entropy Loss • Nonsubjective Priors via Predictive Entropy Loss (with T.J. Sweeting and G.S. Datta) [2006]. “The (with T.J. Sweeting and G.S. Datta) [2006]. “The Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 34, pp. 441–468. Annals of Statistics”, Vol. 34, pp. 441–468. • Characteristic Functions without Contour Integration • Characteristic Functions without Contour Integration (with G.S. Datta) [2007]. “The American Statistician”, (with G.S. Datta) [2007]. “The American Statistician”, Vol. 61, pp. 67–70. Vol. 61, pp. 67–70. • Relative Performance of Classifiers for High-Dimen� • Relative Performance of Classifiers for High-Dimen� sional Data and Small Sample Sizes (with P. Hall sional Data and Small Sample Sizes (with P. Hall and and Y. Pittelkow) [2008]. “Journal of the Royal Y. Pittelkow) [2008]. “Journal of the Royal Statistical Statistical Society”, Series B, Vol. 70, pp. 159–173. Society”, Series B, Vol. 70, pp. 159–173. • Influence Functions and Robust Bayes and Empiri� • Influence Functions and Robust Bayes and Empiri� cal Bayes Small Area Estimation (with T. Maiti and cal Bayes Small Area Estimation (with T. Maiti and A. Roy) [2008]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 95, pp. 573–585. A. Roy) [2008]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 95, pp. 573–585. • Empirical Bayes Estimation for Additive Hazards • Empirical Bayes Estimation for Additive Hazards Regression Models (with D. Sinha, B. McHenry, Regression Models (with D. Sinha, B. McHenry, S. Lipsitz) [2009]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 96, pp. 545–558. S. Lipsitz) [2009]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 96, pp. 545–558. • Empirical Likelihood for Small Area Estimation (with • Empirical Likelihood for Small Area Estimation (with S. Chaudhuri) [2011]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 98, pp. 473–480. S. Chaudhuri) [2011]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 98, pp. 473–480. • Benchmarking Small Area Estimators [2013] (with • Benchmarking Small Area Estimators [2013] (with W.R. Bell and G.S. Datta). “Biometrika”, Vol. 100, W.R. Bell and G.S. Datta). “Biometrika”, Vol. 100, pp. 189–202. pp. 189–202. • Empirical Bayes Benchmarked Small Area Estima� • Empirical Bayes Benchmarked Small Area Estima� tors under Multiplicative Models (with T. Kuboka- tors under Multiplicative Models (with T. Kubokawa wa and Y. Kawakubo) [2015]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 102, and Y. Kawakubo) [2015]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 102, pp. 647–659. pp. 647–659. • Global-local Shrinkage Priors for Modelling Random • Global-local Shrinkage Priors for Modelling Random Effects in Small Area Estimation (with X.Tang, N.-S. Ha Effects in Small Area Estimation (with X.Tang, N.-S. Ha

25 Biografia/Biography

and J. Sedransk) [2018]. “Journal of the American and J. Sedransk) [2018]. “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Vol. 113, pp. 1476–1489. Statistical Association”, Vol. 113, pp. 1476–1489. • Posterior Graph Selection and Estimation Consi� • Posterior Graph Selection and Estimation Consist� stency in High-Dimensional Bayesian DAG (with ency in High-Dimensional Bayesian DAG (with X. Cao and K.D. Khare) [2019]. “The Annals of Sta- X. Cao and K.D. Khare) [2019]. “The Annals of Statis- tistics”, Vol. 47, pp. 319–348. tics”, Vol. 47, pp. 319–348. • Hierarchical Bayes versus Empirical Bayes Density • Hierarchical Bayes versus Empirical Bayes Density Predictors under General Divergence Loss (with T. Ku- Predictors under General Divergence Loss (with T. Ku- bokawa) [2019]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 106, pp. 495–500. bokawa) [2019]. “Biometrika”, Vol. 106, pp. 495–500. • … i 9 artykułów prasowych w druku. • … and 9 papers in press.

Inne osiągnięcia: Other achievements: • Wypromowanie 60 doktorantów. • Supervision of 60 Ph. Ds. • Realizacja 31 grantów (główny wykonawca lub • 31 grants (in 29 as Principal Investigator or Co-prin- współgłówny wykonawca w 29 grantach) m.in. cipal Investigator) from, i.a., National Science Foun- z National Science Foundation, Army Research Of- dation, Army Research Office, University of Florida, fice, University of Florida, Census Bureau, National Census Bureau, National Institutes of Health, Cent- Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and ers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Prevention, National Security Agency, The United Security Agency, The United States Department of States Department of Agriculture. Agriculture. • Wygłoszenie 83 wykładów na zaproszenie, 47 wy- • 83 invited lectures, 47 special invited lectures, 123 kładów specjalnych na zaproszenie, 123 prezentacji invited presentations, 11 tutorials and short courses. na zaproszenie, przeprowadzenie 11 krótkich kur- • Chair and member of 79 committees of, i.a., Iowa sów teoretycznych i praktycznych. State University, University of Florida, International • Przewodniczący i członek 79 komitetów m.in. w Iowa Society for Bayesian Analysis, Institute of Math- State University, University of Florida, International ematical Statistics, American Statistical Association. Society for Bayesian Analysis, Institute of Mathema- tical Statistics, American Statistical Association.

26

Laudacja Eulogy

prof. dr hab. Janusz Leszek Wywiał Prof. Janusz Leszek Wywiał, Ph.D.

Magnificencjo, Wysoki Senacie, Your Magnificence, Senate Members, Dostojny Doktorancie, Szanowni Goście Honorable Conferee, Ladies and Gentlemen

Decyzją Senatu Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowi- By decision of the Senate of the University of Economics cach powierzono mi pełnienie zaszczytnej roli promotora in Katowice I have been entrusted with the honourable w przewodzie o nadanie tytułu doktora honoris causa role of supervisor of the proceedings initiated to confer naszej Uczelni wybitnemu uczonemu Malayowi Gho- the honorary doctor’s degree of our University upon showi, distiguished Professor of University of Florida. prominent scientist, Professor Malay Ghosh, distinguished Ojczyzną liczb są Indie, skąd m.in. wywodzi się professor of the University of Florida. system dziesiętny ich zapisu. Wszelkie dane o zjawiskach The motherland of numbers is India, where i.a. the otaczających człowieka są kodowane za pomocą liczb. decimal system of their recording is derived from. All the Analizą danych zajmują się statystycy. Wielu znanych na data concerning phenomena surrounding man is en- świecie statystyków pochodzi właśnie z Indii. Wśród nich coded by means of numbers. Statisticians deal with data jest również nasz dostojny gość Profesor Malay Ghosh, analysis, and it is from India that many world-famous który urodził się 15 kwietnia 1944 r. w Kalkucie w Indiach. statisticians come from. One of them is our honourable Profesor Malay Ghosh swoją edukację uniwersy- guest, Professor Malay Ghosh, who was born on 15 April tecką rozpoczął wybierając kierunki studiów związane 1944 in Calcutta, India. ze statystyką, co jak się okazało, było bardzo dobrym Professor Malay Ghosh began his university educa- początkiem jego późniejszych sukcesów. Studia licen- tion choosing courses related to statistics, which turned cjackie i magisterskie o profilu statystycznym ukoń- out to be a fortunate springboard into his later success. czył odpowiednio w 1962 i 1964 r., w wieku 18 i 20 lat He completed his under-graduate and graduate courses w Calcutta University, uzyskując stypendia West Bengal in statistics in 1962, at the age of 18, and in 1964, at 20, Government Junior Scholarship, West Bengal Govern- respectively. As a student he was awarded The West ment Senior Scholarship, National Scholarship Certificate Bengal Government Junior Scholarship, The West Bengal

29 Laudacja/Eulogy

and Post Graduate Merit Scholarship. Zarówno pierwszy, Government Senior Scholarship, The National Scholar- jak i drugi stopień studiów ukończył jako złoty meda- ship Certificate and Post Graduate Merit Scholarship. He lista First Class First oraz Gold Medalist. To otworzyło completed his undergraduate, as well as his graduate mu drogę na studia doktorskie w University of North course as a First Class First and Gold Medalist. This enabled Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) w Stanach Zjednoczonych, him to enrol on a Ph.D. course at the University of North które rozpoczął w 1966 r. Carolina at Chapel Hill in the United States, where in 1969 Kariera akademicka Profesora przebiegała w typo- he obtained his doctor’s degree following a disserta- wo amerykańskim stylu. Pracował jako asystent oraz tion entitled Asymptotically optimal nonparametric tests adiunkt w katedrach statystyki lub biostatystyki, ale też for miscellaneous problems of linear regression, written jako matematyk albo inżynier systemów w korporacji under the supervision of Pranab K. Sen. IBM. W 1969 r., w wieku 25, uzyskał stopień doktora za Professor Malay Ghosh’s academic career was typi- dysertację pt. Asymptotically optimal nonparametric cally American in style. He began his Ph.D. course at tests for miscellaneous problems of linear regression, the University of North Carolina in 1966 and worked as którą napisał pod kierunkiem Pranaba K. Sena. W latach a research assistant and lecturer at the departments of 1971–1978 pracował jako profesor nadzwyczajny Indian statistics and biostatistics, but also as a business math- Statistical Institute. Od 1974 r. był zatrudniony przez ematician and a systems engineer for IBM. From 1971 to osiem lat jako profesor w Katedrze Statystyki w Iowa 1978 he worked as an associate professor at the Indian State University. Natomiast od 1982 r. po dzień dzisiejszy Statistical Institute. For eight years, beginning in 1974, pracuje w Katedrze Statystyki w University of Florida he was employed as a professor at the Department of najpierw jako professor, a od 1998 jako distinguished Statistics of Iowa State University. Since 1982 up to the professor po ukazaniu się w 1997 r. w renomowanych present day Professor Malay Ghosh has worked at the wydawnictwach dwóch monografii naukowych, których Department of Statistics of the University of Florida, first był współautorem. Ponadto odwiedził jako profesor wi- as a professor, and next as a distinguished professor, after zytujący siedem uniwersytetów na świecie (poza USA), two monographs co-authored by him were published by a wśród nich National University of Singapore oraz Uni- two renowned publishing houses. Besides, as a visiting versity of Technology w Sydney. Szeroka wiedza Profesora professor he has lectured at seven universities outside pozwala na prowadzenie wykładów na różne tematy, the US, including the National University of Singapore takie jak: zaawansowane wnioskowanie statystyczne, and the University of Technology in Sydney. teoria decyzji, teoria bayesowska, analiza wielowy- Professor Ghosh’s extensive knowledge enables miarowa, analiza sekwencyjna i teoria niezawodności. him to lecture on a variety of topics including advanced

30 Laudacja/Eulogy

Niewątpliwie najważniejszym aspektem działalności statistical inference, decision theory, Bayesian theory, akademickiej Profesora Malaya Ghosha są jego prace multidimensional analysis, sequential analysis as well naukowe, które wzbogacają zasoby wiedzy teoretycznej, as reliability theory. jak i stosowanej w dziedzinie statystyki. Wiele spośród Professor Malay Ghosh’s research works, which con- nich ma znaczenie fundamentalne i są powszechnie tinually enrich the resourcey of theoretical and applied cytowane. Wymieńmy kilka z nich, które zasługują na statistics, are undoubtedly the most important aspect of szczególne podkreślenie, m.in. z powodu ich znaczenia his academic activity. Many of them are of fundamental w naukach ekonomicznych. significance and are widely cited. Let us enumerate some Pierwszym szerokim tematem jest estymacja se- of those which deserve particular attention owing to kwencyjna, m.in. bezpośrednio związana z kryterium their significance in economics. maksymalizacji ekonomicznej efektywności przy ogra- The first broad area is sequential estimation, which, niczonych nakładach. Profesor, wraz z N. Mukhopadhy- among others, is directly related to the criterion of ayem i P.K. Senem, napisał monografię pod tytułem: maximizing economic effectiveness with limited outlays. Sequental estimation, która została wydana przez John Professor Ghosh, together with N. Mukhopadhyay and Wiley & Sons w 1997 r. Ta do dziś ceniona książka pre- P.K. Sen, wrote a monograph entitled Sequential estima� zentuje racjonalne metody sukcesywnego zwiększania tion, which was published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. in rozmiaru próby, tak aby została osiągnięta postulowana 1997. This book, highly regarded up to the present day, dokładność estymacji. Dlatego te metody wnioskowania presents methods of increasing the sample size gradually, istotnie uzupełniają możliwości estymacji parametrów so as to achieve the posited accuracy of estimation. This is w praktyce badań statystycznych. W monografii znaj- why these inference methods substantially complement dziemy syntezę ówczesnego dorobku naukowego w dzie- the range of parameter estimation possibilities in the dzinie estymacji sekwencyjnej wzbogaconą o pewne practice of statistical research. In this book we can find nowe propozycje, dotyczące m.in. uogólnień metod a synthesis of the scientific achievements in the field wnioskowania na przypadek jednoczesnej estymacji of sequential estimation at that time, enriched with wielu parametrów i wyznaczania dla nich obszarów certain new proposals concerning, among others, the ufności. Podkreślmy, że stosowanie w praktyce badań generalization of inference methods onto the case of statystycznych metod estymacji sekwencyjnej pozwa- simultaneous estimation of many parameters and deter- la przede wszystkim na istotne oszczędności środków mining confidence sets for them. Let us emphasize that na nie przeznaczanych. Inne osiągnięcia w dziedzinie applying sequential estimation methods in the practice estymacji sekwencyjnej Profesor Malay Ghosh opubli- of statistical research allows considerable economies in

31 Laudacja/Eulogy

kował w około dwudziestu pięciu artykułach, w tym allocated resources. Professor Malay Ghosh published m.in. w czasopiśmie „Sequential Analysis”, którego był his achievements in the field of sequential estimation również redaktorem. Ponadto warto zwrócić uwagę, in about 25 research papers, which appeared, among iż wypromowane przez Profesora prace doktorskie others, in “Sequential Analysis”, a journal whose editor N. Mukhopadhyaya oraz D. Nickersona dotyczą estymacji he was. Besides, it is also noteworthy that the Ph.D. sekwencyjnej. dissertations of N. Mukhopadhyay and D. Nickerson, Teoria niezawodności, jest drugą dziedziną, wokół supervised by Professor Ghosh, were also concerned której oscylują zainteresowania Profesora. Ekonomiczne with sequential estimation. aspekty tej teorii są związane m.in. z szeroko pojętymi Reliability theory is the second area of Professor ubezpieczeniami, a w szczególności z ustalaniem okresów Ghosh’s scientific interest. The economic aspects of this gwarancji na sprzedawane produkty, którą wyznacza theory are related, among others, to insurance in general, się na podstawie oczekiwanego czasu niezawodnego and in particular to determining guarantee cover periods działania urządzenia. Z innej strony oceny oczekiwanego for products offered for sale, which are established on czasu bezwypadkowej jazdy kierowcy mają kluczowe the basis of the estimated reliable operation time of znaczenie przy wyznaczaniu stawek ubezpieczenia a device. On the other hand, estimating a driver’s ex- komunikacyjnego. Blisko z tymi problemami wiążą się pected accident-free time of service is of key significance zainteresowania Malaya Ghosha dotyczące zagadnień in setting motor insurance premiums. Closely related to tzw. ryzyk konkurujących, także będących elementem these problems are Professor Ghosh’s interests in the teorii niezawodności. Profesor, stosując metody bay- issue of so-called competing risks, which constitute part esowskie, ma tu znaczące osiągnięcia w porównaniu of reliability theory. Using Bayesian methods, Professor z pracami opartymi na podejściu niebayesowskim. Prace Ghosh achieved considerable success in comparison with Profesora wykorzystujące wnioskowanie bayesowskie works based on the non-Bayesian approach. Professor mają prekursorskie znaczenie w badaniach praktycznych. Ghosh’s works using Bayesian inference are of pioneering W szczególności artykuł o estymacji udziału osób pozo- significance for practical research, particularly the article stających bez ubezpieczenia zdrowotnego opublikowany on estimating the proportion of people not covered by w „Survey Methodology” w 2009 r. dotyczy ubezpieczeń health insurance, also concerned with social security społecznych i polityki społecznej. Inna praca, opubli- and social policy and published in “Survey Methodol- kowana w „Journal of Multivariate Analysis” w 2006 r., ogy” in 2009. Another article, published in “The Journal dotyczy bayesowskich modeli przestrzennych częstości of Multivariate Analysis” in 2006, deals with Bayesian wypadków drogowych. Można ją również zaklasyfikować spatial models of traffic accident incidence. This article

32 Laudacja/Eulogy

do obszaru szeroko rozumianej ekonometrii przestrzennej. can also be classified as one representing the field of Zwróćmy uwagę, że mamy tu do czynienia ze swego spatial econometrics in a broad sense. Let us note that rodzaju podobieństwem tego fragmentu dorobku na- we can witness here a unique encounter of the scientific ukowego Profesora Malaya Ghosha i dorobku Profesora output of Professor Ghosh with that of Professor Jean Jeana H.P. Paelincka z Holenderskiego Instytutu Eko- H.P. Paelinck of the Netherland Economic Institute, to nomicznego (Netherland Economic Institute), któremu whom the University of Economics in Katowice awarded w 1987 r. Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny (ówcześnie Akademia the honorary doctor’s degree in 1987 for his pioneering Ekonomiczna) w Katowicach nadał tytuł doktora honoris contribution to spatial econometrics. Let us also add that causa za prekursorskie zasługi w dziedzinie ekonometrii the Ph.D. dissertations of N. Ebrahimi and C.P. Wang, przestrzennej. Dodajmy jeszcze, że teorii niezawodno- supervised by Professor Ghosh, also concerned reliability ści dotyczą wypromowane przez Profesora doktoraty theory. N. Ebrahimiego oraz C. P. Wanga. Small area estimation is another field which has Statystyka małych obszarów jest kolejną dziedziną, been of special interest to Professor Ghosh up to the która aż do dziś stanowi szczególne pole zainteresowań present day. A major work which falls under this cat- Profesora. Jedną z ważniejszych prac, którą można za- egory is the monograph published by Chapman & Hall liczyć do tego tematu, jest monografia opublikowana in 1997, entitled Bayesian Methods for finite population w 1997 r. przez Chapman & Hall pt.: Bayesian methods for sampling, which Professor M. Ghosh co-authored with finite population sampling, którą Professor M. Ghosh na- G. Mideeden. The book deals with the latest modes pisał wraz G. Mideedenem. Dotyczy ona ówcześnie naj- of applying Bayesian inference to the survey sampling nowszych możliwości zastosowania wnioskowania bay- method. Probabilistic models of generating observations esowskiego w metodzie reprezentacyjnej. Konstruowano of variables in a finite population were devised in it. tu probabilistyczne modele generowania obserwacji This created new modes of estimating the parameters zmiennych w populacji skończonej, co dawało różne of those variables. Procedures of Bayesian inference to- nowe możliwości estymacji parametrów tych zmiennych. gether with its empirical version were used to estimate Procedury estymacji bayesowskiej z uwzględnieniem jej a mean based on stratified or multi-stage samples. This empirycznej wersji wykorzystano do oceny średniej na creates solid theoretical and methodological foundations podstawie prób warstwowych i wielostopniowych. Daje for estimating means on the basis of data observed in to solidne podstawy teoretyczno-metodologiczne do surveys and obtained from administration records. These estymacji średnich na podstawie m.in. danych obser- procedures are therefore useful for statistical offices, and wowanych w badaniach ankietowych lub pochodzących organizations dealing with consumer market research

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z rejestrów administracyjnych. Zatem te procedury są and public opinion polls. Let us also add that the book przydatne np. dla urzędów statystycznych oraz firm initiated a series of articles on Bayesian inference, as zajmujących się badaniem rynków konsumpcyjnych well as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian estimation. lub badaniem opinii społecznej. Dodajmy jeszcze, iż Professor Ghosh’s works on small area estimation use monografia zapoczątkowała cykl artykułów dotyczących Bayesian estimation methods along with other methods wnioskowania bayesowskiego, a zwłaszcza empirycznej of statistical inference used for more complex models of albo hierarchicznej estymacji bayesowskiej. Prace Profe- studied populations, which occur in economic analyses. sora dotyczące statystyki małych obszarów wykorzystują This is determined by the need for the possibly most ac- metody estymacji bayesowskiej, obok innych metod curate estimation of parameters in subpopulations called wnioskowania statystycznego o bardziej złożonych domains with a small and usually random number of modelach badanych populacji występujących w ana- observations of the variables in question. This is of great lizach ekonomicznych. Podyktowane to jest potrzebą significance in economic research. There arises a need możliwie najbardziej dokładnej estymacji parametrów to search for original estimation methods or to adapt podpopulacji zwanych domenami przy małej i zwykle already existing procedures known, for instance, in the jeszcze losowej liczbie obserwacji zmiennych badanych. theory of generalized linear models. Professor Ghosh’s Ma to ogromne znaczenie w badaniach ekonomicznych. numerous articles rose to this challenge by creating the Zachodzi tu potrzeba poszukiwania oryginalnych metod foundations for inference used in small area estimation. estymacji lub adaptacji już istniejących procedur, zna- He presents his views on many aspects of inference in nych np. w teorii tzw. uogólnionych modeli liniowych. small area estimation jointly with J.N.K. Rao in the article Tym wyzwaniom sprostały liczne artykuły Profesora, entitled Small area estimation: An appraisal, published dając podstawy wnioskowania wykorzystywanego in “Statistical Science” in 1994. This article consider- w statystyce małych obszarów. M. Ghosh swoje po- ably influenced research trends in that field, which is glądy na wiele aspektów wnioskowania w statysty- proved by the very high citation indexes recorded in ce małych obszarów przedstawia wraz z J.N.K. Rao various bases. w artykule Small area estimation: An appraisal, opu- Professor Ghosh has carried out at least 10 grants blikowanym w „Statistical Science” 1994, który miał related to small area estimation. Particular examples znaczący wpływ na kierunki badań w tym zakresie, of these projects were Parametric and semiparametric o czym świadczą bardzo wysokie wskaźniki cytowal- Bayesian methods for small area estimation and Empiri� ności notowane w różnych bazach. Profesor M. Ghosh cal and hierarchical Bayesian methods with applications realizował co najmniej dziesięć grantów związanych to small area estimation. Professor Ghosh conducted

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ze statystyką małych obszarów. W szczególności tymi four courses in small area estimation, including Model- projektami były: Parametric and semiparametric Bayes� -dependent small area estimation: Theory and practice ian methods for small area estimation oraz Empirical at the University of Jyvaskyla. Professor Ghosh’s mer- and Hierarchical Bayesian methods with applications to its in enhancing the knowledge of statistics in broadly small area estimation. Profesor prowadził cztery kursy understood small area estimation and Bayesian estima- z zakresu statystyki małych obszarów, a wśród nich tion found their worldwide appreciation in the fact that Model-dependent small area estimation: Theory and Professor Ghosh was entrusted with the organization practice na Uniwersytecie w Jyvaskala. Zasługi w zakresie of sessions at international conferences and offered wzbogacania wiedzy statystycznej w szeroko rozumianej the position of editor on statistical journals as well as dziedzinie statystyki małych obszarów oraz estymacji invited to lecture as a visiting professor at numerous bayesowskiej były doceniane na świecie m.in. poprzez universities. Examples of sessions organized by Professor powierzanie Profesorowi organizowania sesji na konfe- Ghosh include: Empirical Bayes methods in small area rencjach międzynarodowych i obowiązków redaktora estimation, Applications of empirical and hierarchical liczących się czasopism statystycznych, a także wykła- Bayes methods in survey sampling, Time series analysis dów wygłoszonych na uniwersytetach w charakterze of small domain data. Besides, Professor Ghosh was visiting professor. W szczególności organizował sesje na a member of The Executive Board of the International tematy: Empirical Bayes methods in small area estima� Society for Bayesian Analysis. tion, Applications of empirical and hierarchical Bayes Summing up, over half of Professor Ghosh’s pub- methods in survey sampling, Time series analysis of lications were devoted to issues of small area estima- small domain data. Ponadto był członkiem Executive tion or Bayesian inference. Likewise, almost half of the Board of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. Ph.D. dissertations supervised by Professor Ghosh are Reasumując, problemom w zakresie zagadnień statystyki concerned with those issues, in particular those writ- małych obszarów lub wnioskowania bayesowskiego ten by G. Datt, N. Nangi, K. Sinh and A. Roy. Last but była poświęcona ponad połowa publikacji Profesora. not least, let us stress the fact that Professor Ghosh’s Podobnie tym zagadnieniom jest poświęcona prawie merits were honoured by awarding him the Small Area połowa prac doktorskich wypromowanych przez Pro- Estimation Award. fesora, w szczególności G. Datta, N. Nangia, K. Sinha The actual range of Professor Ghosh’s scientific output i A. Roya. Podkreślmy też, że w 2019 r. za wyżej wspo- exceeds the three areas of research mentioned here be- mniane zasługi uhonorowano M. Ghosha nagrodą Small cause his articles also concern issues like non-parametric Area Estimation Award. inference, which is a valued tool in the statistical analysis

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Faktyczny zakres dorobku naukowego Profesora of economic data. Besides, Professor Ghosh devoted many znacznie przekracza wskazane trzy pola badawcze, of his works to the problem of estimator admissibility. ponieważ Jego artykuły są również związane z takimi Professor Ghosh’s scientific output and his monographs zagadnieniami, jak np. wnioskowanie nieparametryczne, constitute extensive theoretical and methodological foun- które jest bardzo cenionym narzędziem w statystycznych dations which can be applied to statistical analyses in analizach danych ekonomicznych. Ponadto wiele prac economics, medicine, technology and agriculture. This poświęcił problemowi dopuszczalności estymatorów. proves the unusual versatility of his output. An analysis Analizowany dorobek naukowy Profesora daje szerokie of Professor Ghosh’s publications makes one realize that podstawy teoretyczno-metodologiczne, które można Bayesian methods are used in a decisive majority of his stosować w analizach statystycznych wykonywanych works. This tendency is also manifested in other aspects na rzecz nie tylko nauk ekonomicznych, lecz również of his scientific activity, like, for instance, in the lectures np. badań naukowych prowadzonych w medycynie, delivered by him at numerous international conferences. technice i rolnictwie. Świadczy to o niezwykłej uni- This makes Professor Ghosh an outstanding representative wersalności Jego dorobku. Warto też zwrócić uwagę, że of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference. w zdecydowanej większości prac są wykorzystywane Numerically speaking, Professor Ghosh has authored metody bayesowskie. Ta tendencja przejawia się rów- or co-authored a total of over 310 scientific publications, nież w innych aspektach działalności naukowej, jak np. including articles, monographs and chapters in books w przypadku wygłaszanych przez Niego wykładów na on statistical methodology and its applications, and licznych konferencjach międzynarodowych. Czyni to his works are widely cited in the scientific circles. Most Profesora wybitnym przedstawicielem właśnie podejścia journals in which they were cited are on the prestig- bayesowskiego we wnioskowaniu statystycznym. ious list of the Journal of the Citation Index. Many of Dodajmy jeszcze, iż z ilościowego punktu widzenia his articles were published in journals like “Annals of M. Ghosh był autorem lub współautorem ponad 310 Statistics”, “Journal of the American Statistical Associa- publikacji naukowych (artykułów, monografii i rozdzia- tion”, “Journal of the Royal Statistical Association” and łów w pracach zbiorowych) z dziedziny metodologii “Biometrika”, which are the most highly-regarded by statystycznej i jej zastosowań. Jego prace charakteryzują statisticians. się ogromną cytowalnością w środowisku naukowym. Many of Professor Ghosh’s publications resulted from Większość czasopism, w których były publikowane ar- his work on at least 30 research grants between 1979 tykuły, w tym najbardziej cenione przez statystyków: and 2016, most of which were headed by him. Those „Annals of Statistics”, “Journal of the American Statistical projects were financed by such prominent institutions

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Association”, “Journal of the Royal Statistical Associa- as The National Science Foundation, The United State tion” oraz “Biometrika”, znajduje się na prestiżowej Army Research Office, The US Census Bureau, The National liście Journal of the Citation Index. Institute of Health as well as The United States Center Wiele spośród analizowanych publikacji Profesora for Disease Control. M. Ghosha jest wynikiem jego prac w latach 1979–2016 The results of Professor Ghosh’s work have been most nad realizacją co najmniej 30 grantów naukowo-ba- appreciated in the statisticians’ environment as he has dawczych, z czego w prawie wszystkich był głównym been invited to lecture in at least 80 academic centres. wykonawcą. Te projekty naukowe były finansowane Professor Ghosh has participated as an invited lecturer m.in. przez tak znaczące instytucje, jak National Science in 150 prestigious international conferences. Besides, Foundation, United State Army Research Office, US Census he has supervised 60 Ph.D. dissertations and has led Bureau, National Institute of Health oraz United State 30 research grants. Professor Ghosh has demonstrated Center for Disease Control. his teaching skills conducting at least 10 special courses Wyniki prac Profesora M. Ghosha są bardzo docenia- on topics related mainly to small area estimation. This ne w środowisku statystyków, co się przekłada na liczne substantiates his significant contribution to promoting zaproszenia do wygłoszenia wykładów w co najmniej the knowledge of statistics and educating specialists in 80 ośrodkach akademickich. Profesor był zapraszany this field. do wygłoszenia 150 wykładów jako invited lecturer na Thanks to his outstanding knowledge and skills liczących się międzynarodowych konferencjach nauko- Professor Ghosh’s was invited to act as editor or associ- wych, z czego na 47 jako special invited lecturer. Ponadto ate editor of 20 scientific journals, such as “Sankhya B”, wypromował 60 doktorów. Swoje umiejętności dydak- “Annals of Statistics”, “Journal of Statistical Planning tyczne Profesor miał okazję zademonstrować poprzez and Inference”, “Journal of the American Statistical prowadzenie co najmniej dziesięciu specjalnych kursów Association”, “The American Statistician. Besides, he na tematy głównie związane ze statystyką małych ob- was a member of the Editorial Boards of the following szarów, z czego wynika, iż znakomicie przyczynił się journals: “Sequential Analysis”, “Communications in do popularyzowania wiedzy statystycznej i kształcenia Statistics-Theory and Methods”, “Statistics and Deci- specjalistów z tej dziedziny. sions”, “Statistics in Transition”. In collaboration with Wybitna wiedza i umiejętności Profesora stały się P.K. Pathak he edited the book entitled Current issues in pożądane w dwudziestu redakcjach czasopism nauko- statistical inference: Essays in Honor of D. Basu, published wych. W szczególności był redaktorem lub redaktorem by The Institute of Mathematical Society in the Lectures, działowym takich czasopism, jak: “Sankhya B”, “Annals Notes, Monographs series in 1992. Apart from that, he

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of Statistics”, “Journal of Statistical Planning and ������Infer- has reviewed a vast number of articles and books, in ence”, “Journal of the American Statistical Association” particular monographs for “The Journal of the American czy “American Statistician”, a także członkiem m.in. Statistical Association”. następujących rad redakcyjnych: “Sequential������� Analy- Professor Malay Ghosh found time to actively sis”, “Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods”, participate in academic life as a member of colleges “Statistics and Decisions”, “Statistics in Transition”. Książkę and scientific committees at the universities where he pt. Current issues in statistical inference: Essays in honor worked. At Iowa State University he was a member, or of D. Basu, opublikowanej przez Institute of ����������Mathemati- was appointed to various functions in 7 committees, cal Society-Lectures Notes Monograph Series w 1992 r., in particular that of chairman of the Ph.D. Preliminary M. Ghosh współredagował wraz P.K. Pathakiem. Ponadto Examination Committee. At the University of Florida, he Profesor opiniował ogromną liczbę artykułów i książek, belonged to 12 committees and was a member of the a w szczególności pisał recenzje monografii do “Journal Senate for 3 terms of office. of the American Statistical Association”. Professor Ghosh’s merits and academic prestige Profesor Malay Ghosh znajdował również czas na are recognized on the statisticians’ international forum, aktywne uczestnictwo w życiu akademickim uczelni, na which is corroborated by his involvement in international których pracował. Był członkiem kolegiów i licznych ko- scientific bodies. For example, he was an elected fellow misji naukowych. W szczególności podczas pracy w Iowa of The American Statistical Association, The International State University był członkiem lub wykonywał funkcje Society for Bayesian Analysis, The International Statisti- w siedmiu komisjach, a w szczególności jako przewodni- cal Institute and The Institute of Mathematical Statistics, czący Ph.D. Preliminary Examination Committee. Z kolei where he served as Chairman for a term of office. Pro- w University of Florida był członkiem dwunastu komisji fessor Ghosh was entrusted with the organization of 15 oraz członkiem Senatu przez trzy kadencje, a od 2006 r. scientific sessions at prestigious international conferences, jest członkiem Mathematical Sciences Committee. among others, the session on Empirical Bayes methods Zasługi i prestiż naukowy Profesora M. Ghosha są in small area estimation during the Annual Meeting of docenione na międzynarodowym forum statystyków. the American Statistical Association. The statisticians’ Wyrazem tego jest wiele Jego prac wykonanych na rzecz community expressed their admiration for Professor’s międzynarodowych towarzystw naukowych. W szcze- Ghosh’s scientific achievements organizing in his honour gólności jest członkiem z wyboru American Statistical a conference on Frontiers of hierarchical modelling in Association, International Society for Bayesian Analysis, observational studies, complex surveys, and big data at International Statistical Institute oraz Institute of Mathe- the University of Maryland, College Park in 2014.

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matical Statistics, którego był przewodniczącym przez Apart from his vast scientific knowledge Professor jedną kadencję. Profesorowi powierzono organizację Malay Ghosh undoubtedly possesses the ability to share it piętnastu sesji naukowych na znaczących konferen- and easily establish cooperation with others, which has cjach międzynarodowych, z których warto wymienić resulted in jointly written articles and research papers Empirical Bayes methods in small area estimation podczas based on grants. It is worth stressing that Professor Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association. Ghosh’s extraordinary personality and his erudition, as Środowisko statystyków wyraziło swój podziw dla osią- well as his scientific ideas, have inspired over sixty people gnięć naukowych Profesora organizując na jego cześć to write their Ph.D. dissertations under his supervision. konferencję pt. Frontiers of Hierarchical Modelling in Many of his former Ph.D. students like Partha Lahiri, Observational Studies, Complex Surveys, and Big Data Gauri Datta, Nitis Mukopadhyay or Ratan Dasgupta, have w 2014 w University of Maryland at College Park. already won recognition in the statistical environment Niewątpliwie obok ogromnej wiedzy naukowej and their research works continually enrich the corpus of Profesor M. Ghosh posiada również umiejętności dzie- statistical know-how. Those people, as well as Professor lenia się nią oraz łatwość nawiązywania współpracy Ghosh’s other Ph.D. students will certainly remember z innymi ludźmi, co owocowało pisaniem wspólnych their outstanding mentor, who launched them onto artykułów oraz pracami nad realizacją grantów. Pod- their careers. kreślmy tutaj, że niezwykła osobność Profesora oraz It is also noteworthy that in his scientific itinerary Jego erudycja i pomysły naukowe stały się inspiracją across the world Professor Ghosh did not forget about dla sześćdziesięciu osób do przygotowania pod jego his Indian roots. After completing his university courses kierunkiem prac doktorskich. Wielu Jego doktorantów in statistics in the USA he returned to Calcutta to work as już zdobyło uznanie w środowisku statystyków, jak a lecturer at Presidency College and then as a professor np. Partha Lahiri, Gauri Datta, Nitis Mukopadhyay czy at the Indian Statistical Institute. In addition, he was Ratan Dasgupta, których prace badawcze ustawicznie chairman of the International Indian Statistical Associa- wzbogacają wiedzę w dziedzinie statystyki. Te osoby tion, editor of “Sankhya B” and a member of the Indian i pozostali doktoranci z pewnością pamiętają, że na Society of Probability and Statistics and the Calcutta początku ich drogi naukowej był ich wybitny mentor Statistical Association. The International Indian Statistical w osobie Profesora M. Ghosha. Association honoured his merits in this field by granting Podkreślmy jeszcze, iż Profesor podczas „wędrówek him the Lifetime Achievement Award in 2017. naukowych po świecie” nie zapomniał o swoich hin- The aforementioned examples of Professor Ghosh’s duskich korzeniach. Po studiach statystycznych w USA scientific activity give us a sense of pride in the fact that it

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wrócił do Kalkuty, aby przez krótki okres pracować naj- was him that on many occasions participated in scientific pierw jako wykładowca w Presidency College, a potem conferences organized in Poland. In the years 2008, 2009, jako profesor w Indian Statistical Institute. Ponadto był 2011, 2017 he was an invited lecturer at the conference on przewodniczącym ������������������������������������International Indian Statistical As- Survey sampling in economic and social research organ- sociation, redaktorem czasopisma Sankhya B, a obecnie ized by the Department of Statistics of the University of jest również członkiem: Indian Society of Probability and Economics in Katowice in collaboration with The Polish Statistics oraz Calcutta Statistical Association. Jego zasługi Statistical Association. As a plenary special invited lecturer na tym polu zostały uhonorowane przez przyznanie Mu he read the following papers: Bayesian benchmarking in nagrody Lifetime Achievement Award przez International small area estimation (2008), Benchmarked small area Indian Statistical Association w 2017 r. estimators (2009), Bayesian penalized splines for small Przytoczone informacje o działalności naukowej area estimation (2011), and Adjustment of survey weights Profesora M. Ghosha wzbudzają poczucie dumy, że to via modeling (2017). In 2012 he was hosted as a special właśnie On wielokrotnie uczestniczył w konferencjach invited speaker at the First Congress of Polish Statistics naukowych organizowanych w Polsce. W latach 2008, held on the occasion of the one hundredth anniversary 2009, 2011 i 2017 gościł na konferencji: Survey Sampling of the foundation of the Polish Statistical Association, in Economic and Social Research, organizowanej przez and at the plenary session he delivered a lecture entitled Katedrę Statystyki Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Kato- Finite population sampling: A model-design synthesis. At wicach przy współudziale Polskiego Towarzystwa Staty- the same congress Professor Ghosh was honoured with stycznego. Wygłosił na specjalne zaproszenie, jako plena� the Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal, which is awarded by ry special invited lecturer, następujące referaty: Bayesian the Polish Statistical Association to outstanding statisti- benchmarking in small area estimation (2008), Bench� cians to commemorate Jerzy Spława-Neyman, a world- marked small area estimators (2009), Bayesian penalized -famous statistician of Polish descent, who, along with splines for small area estimation (2011), Adjustment of Karl Pearson and Ronald Fisher is included in the group survey weights via modeling (2017). W roku 2012 – także of three pioneers of modern statistics. In 2014, as an na specjalne zaproszenie jako special invited speaker – na invited speaker, Professor Ghosh read a paper entitled sesji plenarnej Pierwszego Kongresu Statystyki Polskiej Benchmarked empirical Bayes estimators for multiplicative w Poznaniu z okazji 100-tnej rocznicy utworzenia Pol- area level models at the conference on Small Area Estima� skiego Towarzystwa Statystycznego wygłosił wykład tion organized in Poznan by the International Association pt. F����������������������������������inite population sampling: A model�-����������design syn� for Survey Statisticians and the University of Economics thesis. Ponadto na tym Kongresie prof. M. Ghosh został in Poznan. During that Conference he was invited to join

40 Laudacja/Eulogy

uhonorowany Medalem im. Jerzego Spławy-Neymana. the Editorial Board of “Statistics in Transition”, a journal Podkreślmy, że ten medal jest nadawany przez Polskie published by the Polish Statistical Association and the Towarzystwo Statystyczne wybitnym statystykom na Statistics Poland. pamiątkę światowej sławy statystyka pochodzenia pol- In summary, Professor Ghosh’s scientific merits, skiego, Jerzego Spławy-Neymana, który jest zaliczany do which I have presented here, are certainly exemplary trojga prekursorów nowoczesnej statystyki obok Karla as his research works have exerted a considerable ef- Pearsona oraz Ronalda Fishera. W 2014 r. jako invited fect on the development of various aspects of statistical lecturer wygłosił referat pt. Benchmarked empirical Bayes theory and its applications and will certainly continue estimators for multiplicative area level models podczas to do so. Particularly noteworthy are his pioneering konferencji Small Area Estimation, organizowanej w Po- works in the field of small area estimation and Bayesian znaniu przez ����������������������������������������������International Association for Survey Statisti- inference. Similarly, Professor Ghosh’s achievements in cians i Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu. Podczas sequential estimation are already categorized as classics tej konferencji został również zaproszony na członka of statistical inference. The scientific results obtained rady redakcyjnej czasopisma „Statistics in Transition” by Professor Ghosh in the field of reliability theory con- wydawanego przez Polskie Towarzystwo Statystyczne stitute a valuable output, together with other areas oraz Główny Urząd Statystyczny. like estimator admissibility analysis, which is of equal Reasumując, działalność naukowa Profesora jest significance in the corpus of statistical know-how. It godna naśladowania, ponieważ jego prace naukowe must also be stressed that all his works are of great miały i wciąż mają niewątpliwie duży wpływ na roz- importance for practical statistical research. This is also wój różnych aspektów teorii statystyki i jej zastosowań. true for the increasingly appreciated statistical analyses W szczególności publikacje z zakresu statystyki małych in empirical economic research. obszarów oraz wnioskowania bayesowskiego są pre- Professor Ghosh’s strictly scientific output substan- kursorskie. Podobnie osiągnięcia Profesora w zakresie tiated in his articles and books goes together with his estymacji sekwencyjnej są już zaliczane do klasyki unusual commitment to promoting the knowledge of wnioskowania statystycznego. Uzyskane wyniki na- statistics in the world. This is best proved by the already ukowe na polu teorii niezawodności stanowią również mentioned enormous number of lectures delivered not wartościowy dorobek obok innych zagadnień statystyki, only at American universities. Besides, Professor Ghosh jak np. analizy dopuszczalności estymatorów, które są has delivered a considerable number of lectures at im- nie mniej znaczące dla zasobów wiedzy statystycznej. portant international conferences, at which he organized Ponadto należy podkreślić, że wszystkie jego prace mają scientific sessions.

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bardzo ważne znaczenie w praktycznych badaniach sta- He has been an active member of prestigious inter- tystycznych. Dotyczy to również coraz bardziej docenia- national scientific organizations. Professor Malay Ghosh nych analiz statystycznych w empirycznych badaniach has become such a well-known and highly-regarded ekonomicznych. person thanks to his vast and undisputed knowledge, Merytoryczną stronę dorobku naukowego uzupełnia as well as his willingness to share it with others. His wręcz niezwykła aktywność na polu upowszechnia- publications and his active participation in conferences nia wiedzy statystycznej na świecie. Uzasadnia to już and seminars were undoubtedly a source of scientific wcześniej sygnalizowana ogromna liczba prowadzonych inspiration for many statisticians. wykładów na rzecz nie tylko uczelni amerykańskich, ale Professor Ghosh’s academic profile needs to be sup- też na zaproszenie podczas liczących się międzynaro- plemented by his uncommon personality. He has always dowych konferencji, na których również organizował been an extremely outgoing and kindly person, ready to sesje naukowe. Aktywnie działał w liczących się na trust others, a person who attentively listens to others świecie międzynarodowych organizacjach naukowych. and willingly offers good advice, which the employees Tak znaną i cenioną na świecie naukowym osobowością of the Department of Statistics of our University had the Profesor Malay Ghosh stał się dzięki jego ogromnej i nie- opportunity to experience. His commitment to science kwestionowanej wiedzy oraz chęci dzielenia się z nią is simply part and parcel of his life. ze wszystkimi. Publikacje Profesora oraz jego aktywne Professor Malay Ghosh’s output, which I have just uczestnictwo w konferencjach i seminariach niewątpliwie described, is impressive in terms of both scientific merit było źródłem inspiracji naukowych dla wielu statystyków. and international cooperation. His academic achievements Przedstawioną sylwetkę naukową profesora należy are exemplary for us all, not only for statisticians. We jeszcze uzupełnić o jego osobowość – jest to człowiek take pride in having another opportunity to host such niezwykle otwarty na ludzi, których od razu obdarza a prominent member of the world league of scientists. swoją życzliwością i kredytem zaufania. Wysłuchuje ich In view of this, the Senate was fully justified in z uwagą i daje im dobre rady, co pracownicy Katedry initiating the proceedings to award the honorary doc- Statystyki naszego Uniwersytetu mieli okazje doświad- tor’s degree of the University of Economics in Katowice to czać. Na co dzień żyje problemami naukowymi. Professor Malay Ghosh in recognition of his outstanding Opisany dorobek Profesora Malaya Ghosha jest im- achievements in the field of statistics and its applica- ponujący w sferach zarówno naukowej, jak i współpracy tions, as well as his commitment to promoting science międzynarodowej. Jego dokonania naukowe są godne and international scientific cooperation. naśladowania dla nas wszystkich, a nie tylko statystyków.

42 Laudacja/Eulogy

Możemy być dumni, że mamy okazję po raz kolejny gościć tak wybitnego naukowca rangi światowej. W związku z tym jest rzeczą oczywistą, że Senat po- stanowił nadać tytuł doktora honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach Profesorowi Malayowi Ghoshowi za wybitne osiągnięcia w dziedzinie teorii statystyki i jej zastosowań, aktywne popularyzowanie nauki oraz promowanie międzynarodowej współpracy naukowej.

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Recenzje Reviews

Yves G. Berger Profesor Yves G. Berger, PhD University of Southampton, Wielka Brytania University of Southampton, United Kingdom 22 stycznia 2020 r. 22nd January 2020

Wybitny wkład Profesora Malaya Ghosha w rozwój Professor Malay Ghosh’s outstanding contribution statystyki to statistics

Profesor Malay Ghosh wniósł wkład w rozwój wielu Professor Malay Ghosh’s contribution to theoretical zagadnień z zakresu statystyki teoretycznej, takich jak: statistics covers a wide range of area, such as survey metoda reprezentacyjna, statystyki porządkowe i nie- statistics, order and nonparametric statistics, sequen- parametryczne, analiza sekwencyjna, teoria decyzji, sta- tial analysis, decision theory, Bayesian statistics and tystyka bayesowska oraz statystyka małych obszarów. small-area estimation. Malay also contributed to applied Miał również swój udział w badaniach stosowanych research projects on prostate cancer studies, case-control dotyczących raka prostaty, badań kliniczno-kontrolnych, studies, quality assurance, county-level estimation and zapewnienia jakości, estymacji na poziomie okręgowym on detection of exoplanets. oraz wykrywania egzoplanet. Professor Malay Ghosh obtained a B.A. in Statistics in W roku 1962 Profesor Malay Ghosh uzyskał tytuł 1962 from the University of Calcutta, and a M.A. in 1964 licencjata z dziedziny statystyki na University of Calcutta, from the same university. Afterwards, he moved to the a w roku 1964 – tytuł magistra na tej samej uczelni. United States and obtained his PhD degree in 1969 from Następnie przeprowadził się do Stanów Zjednoczonych, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, under gdzie w roku 1969 uzyskał tytuł doktora na University the supervision of Pranab K. Sen. His PhD dissertation of North Carolina w Chapel Hill pod kierunkiem Pranaba title is Asymptotically optimal nonparametric tests for K. Sena. Jego rozprawa doktorska nosiła tytuł Asymp� miscellaneous problems of linear regression. After his totically optimal nonparametric tests for miscellaneous PhD, Malay took several research assistant positions at problems of linear regression. Po zdobyciu tytułu doktora, the University of North Carolina. He was an associate Profesor Ghosh kilkukrotnie piastował stanowisko asy- professor at the Indian Statistical Institute from 1971 to

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stenta na University of North Carolina. W latach 1971-1978 1978, then became a professor at the Iowa State University był profesorem w Indian Statistical Institute, a następnie in 1978. In 1982, Malay joined the University of Florida, w roku 1978 objął profesurę na Iowa State University. Gainesville, where he became the Distinguished Professor W roku 1982 Profesor Ghosh rozpoczął pracę na University of the Department of Statistics in 1998. of Florida, Gainesville, gdzie w roku 1998 uzyskał tytuł Professor Malay Ghosh has co-authored two books, „Distinguished Professor” w Katedrze Statystyki. published about 315 research manuscripts and supervised Profesor Malay Ghosh jest współautorem dwóch sixty PhD students, including Partha Lahiri, Gauri S. Datta, książek, opublikował około 315 prac badawczych oraz Kannan Natarajan and Nitis Mukhopadhyay. His contri- wypromował sześćdziesięciu doktorantów, między bution to small area estimation spans over two decades. innymi Parthę Lahiriego, Gauriego S. Dattę, Kannana With his PhD students, Partha Lahiri, Gauri Datta and Natarajana i Nitisa Mukhopadhyaya. Przez ponad dwie Kannan Natarajan, Malay was the first to develop a uni- dekady zajmował się statystyką małych obszarów, fied Bayesian approach for solving small area estimation wnosząc istotny wkład w jej rozwój. Razem ze swoimi problems. He served from 1996 to 2001 in the United doktorantami, Parthą Lahirim, Gaurim Dattą i Kanna- States Census Advisory Committee as a representative nem Natarajanem, jako pierwszy opracował jednolite of the American Statistical Association. podejście do rozwiązywania zagadnień z zakresu sta- Malay’s other methodological contributions to tystyki małych obszarów w ujęciu bayesowskim. W la- Survey Statistics include development of new empiri- tach 1996–2001 Profesor Ghosh zasiadał w United States cal Bayes confidence intervals based on Edgeworth ex- Census Advisory Committee jako przedstawiciel American pansion, outlier adjustment, and use of measurement Statistical Association. error models. Malay has applied Bayesian and empirical Profesor Ghosh wniósł wkład w metodę reprezenta- Bayesian methods for the adjustment of census counts, cyjną także w formie opracowania nowych empirycznych estimation of median income of four-person families, bayesowskich przedziałów ufności w oparciu o rozwi- estimation of the proportion of people without health nięcie Edgewortha, korekty wartości oddalonych oraz insurance for small domains cross-classified by age, sex, zastosowania modeli błędów pomiarowych. Zastoso- ethnicity and other characteristics. wał wnioskowanie bayesowskie i empiryczne metody Malay was the editor of “Sequential Analysis” for bayesowskie do korekty wartości spisowych, estymacji eight years, and “Sankhya, B” for four years. He is cur- median dochodów rodzin czteroosobowych, estymacji rently a member of the Editorial Board of “Statistics in proporcji osób nieposiadających ubezpieczenia zdrowot- Transition”. Previously, he was part of the Editorial Board nego dla niewielkich domen w przekrojowej klasyfikacji of the “Journal of Statistical Research” and the “Brazil-

46 Recenzje/Reviews

ze względu na wiek, płeć, pochodzenie etniczne oraz ian Journal of Statistics”. He acted as Associate Editor inne charakterystyki. for many journals: “Journal of the American Statisti- Profesor Ghosh był redaktorem naczelnym „Sequen�������- cal Association”, “Sequential Analysis”, “Statistics and tial Analysis” przez osiem lat oraz „Sankhya, B” przez Decisions”, “Communications in Statistics – Theory and cztery lata. Obecnie jest członkiem kolegium redakcyj- Methods”, “Journal of Nonparametric Statistics”, “Journal nego pisma „Statistics in Transition”. Był także członkiem of Statistical Planning and Inference”, “Annals of Statis- kolegiów redakcyjnych pism „��������������������������Journal of Statistical Re- tics”, “Statistics”, “American Statistician” and “Metron”. search” oraz „Brazilian Journal of Statistics”. Sprawował Malay published about 315 papers, some in the most funkcję redaktora działowego w wielu czasopismach: prestigious journals. In January 2020, he has 5,638 cita- „Journal of the American Statistical Association”, „Sequ- tions on researchgate.net and a ResearchGate score of ential Analysis”, „Statistics and Decisions”, „Communi- 39.28, with an h-index of 36. Malay’s score is higher cations in Statistics – Theory and Methods”, „Journal of than 95% of all ResearchGate members’ scores. His most Nonparametric Statistics”, „Journal of Statistical Planning h-cited papers are Small area estimation: An appraisal and Inference”, „Annals of Statistics”, „Statistics”, „Ame- (601 citations), Small area estimation: An approach (321 rican Statistician” oraz „Metron”. citations) both co-authored with J.N.K. Rao. Other highly Profesor Ghosh opublikował około 315 artykułów, cited papers are Penalized regression, standard errors, niektóre z nich znalazły się w najbardziej prestiżowych and Bayesian lassos” (271 citations), Multivariate negative czasopismach. Według stanu na styczeń 2020 roku na dependence (175 citations), Generalized linear models for stronie researchgate.net, do artykułów Profesora Gho- small-area estimation (156 citations),Sequential estima� sha odwołano się 5638 razy. Jego wynik ResearchGate, tion (132 citations), Some remarks on non-informative wynoszący 39,28 przy indeksie H równym 36, jest wyższy priors (100 citations), Bayesian multivariate spatial mod� od 95% wyników wszystkich członków ResearchGate. els for roadway traffic crash mapping (99 Citations), On Najczęściej cytowanymi artykułami Profesora Ghosha są: the invariance of noninformative priors (95 citations), Small area estimation: An appraisal (601 cytowań) oraz Constrained Bayes estimation with applications (92 ci- Small area estimation: An approach (321 cytowań), które tations), Simultaneous estimation of parameters under napisał we współpracy z J.N.K. Rao. Inne często cytowane entropy loss (91 citations), Statistical decision theory and artykuły to Penalized regression, standard errors, and Bayesian analysis (90 citations), Bayesian prediction in Bayesian lassos (271 cytowań), Multivariate negative linear models: Applications to small area estimation dependence (175 cytowań), Generalized linear models for (83 citations), Miscellanea. Second-order probability small-area estimation (156 cytowań), Sequential estima� matching priors (81 citations), Bayesian methods for

47 Recenzje/Reviews

tion (132 cytowań), Some remarks on non-informative finite population sampling (78 citations). Five of these priors (100 cytowań), Bayesian multivariate spatial mod� papers are published in the “Journal of the American els for roadway traffic crash mapping (99 cytowań), On Statistical Association”, two papers are published in the invariance of noninformative priors (95 cytowań), the “The Annals of Statistics”. The other journals are Constrained Bayes estimation with applications (92 cy- “Bayesian Analysis”, “Biometrika”, “Statistical Science” towań), Simultaneous estimation of parameters under and “Technometrics”. Malay is also the co-author of entropy loss (91 cytowań), Statistical decision theory and two famous books: Sequential estimation (Wiley and Bayesian analysis (90 cytowań), Bayesian prediction Sons) with N. Mukhopadhyay and P.K. Sen, and Bayesian in linear models: Applications to small area estimation methods for finite population sampling (Chapman and (83 cytowań), Miscellanea. Second-order probability Hall) with G. Meeden. matching priors (81 cytowań) oraz Bayesian methods Malay was principal investigator on several projects for finite population sampling (78 cytowań). Pięć z po- awarded by the National Science Foundation: “Simulta- wyższych artykułów zostało opublikowanych w „Journal neous estimation of parameters in exponential families”, of the American Statistical Association”, a dwa kolejne “Admissibility in multiparameter estimation and in finite w „Annals of Statistics”. Pozostałe artykuły opubliko- population sampling”, “Multiparameter estimation and wano w „Bayesian Analysis”, „Biometrika”, „Statistical estimation in finite population sampling”, “Empirical Science” oraz „Technometrics”. Profesor Ghosh jest także and hierarchical Bayes estimation in finite population współautorem dwóch znanych książek: Sequential������������ es� sampling, quality assurance and random effects models”, timation (wydawnictwo Wiley and Sons), którą napisał “Hierarchical and empirical Bayes estimation in survey razem z N. Mukhopadhyayem i P.K. Senem oraz Bayesian sampling, linear models and quality assurance”, “Bayesian methods for finite population sampling (wydawnictwo methods and inference”, “Bayesian Methods for small Chapman and Hall), napisanej wspólnie z G. Meedenem. area estimation and latent structure models”, “Parametric Profesor Ghosh był głównym wykonawcą w wielu and semiparametric Bayesian methods for small area projektach finansowanych przez National �������������Science Foun- estimation”, “Bayesian and likelihood based multilevel dation: Jednoczesna estymacja parametrów w rodzinie models for small area estimation”, “Some topics in small rozkładów wykładniczych, Dopuszczalność w estymacji area estimation”, “Empirical and hierarchical Bayesian wielu parametrów oraz w zagadnieniach związanych methods with applications to small area estimation”, z losowaniem z populacji skończonych, Estymacja wielu “Case-control studies, new directions and applications”, parametrów i estymacja w przypadku losowania z popu� “Some contributions to sampling theory with applications” lacji skończonych, Empiryczna i hierarchiczna estymacja and “Bayesian empirical likelihood and penalized splines

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bayesowska w przypadku losowania z populacji skoń� for small area estimation”. Other projects are: “Nonpara- czonych, zapewnienia jakości i modeli z efektami loso� metric estimation and estimation in finite population wymi, Hierarchiczna i empiryczna estymacja bayesowska sampling” (Research Development Award), “Conference w metodzie reprezentacyjnej, w modelach liniowych on topics in generalized linear models” (US National Se- i w zapewnieniu jakości, Metody bayesowskie i wnio� curity Agency), “Bayesian neural networks for prostate skowanie, Metody bayesowskie dla statystyki małych cancer studies” (National Institute of Health), “Valida- obszarów oraz modele struktur ukrytych, Parametryczne tion study of subdomain estimation method” (Centre of i pół-parametryczne metody bayesowskie dla statystyki Diseases Control and Prevention), “Topics in Bayesian małych obszarów, Wnioskowanie bayesowskie i wia� analysis, empirical likelihood and decision theory” (US rygodność w oparciu o modele wielopoziomowe dla National Security Agency), “Multivariate empirical and statystyki małych obszarów, Kilka zagadnień z zakresu hierarchical Bayes methods for small area estimation”, statystyki małych obszarów, Empiryczne i hierarchiczne “Developing small area models for improved county-level metody bayesowskie wraz z zastosowaniami dla sta� estimation of agricultural cash rent” (U.S. Department tystyki małych obszarów, Badania kliniczno-kontrolne, of Agriculture), and “Small area estimation” (ASA Senior nowe kierunki i zastosowania, Wkład w rozwój metod Research Fellowship). Malay collaborated in other research asymptotycznych wraz z zastosowaniami oraz Bayesow� projects: “Order statistics and nonparametric statistics”, ska empiryczna wiarygodność i P-splajny w statystyce “Conference on topics in generalized linear models” and małych obszarów. Inne projekty Pana Profesora to: Es� “Search for Earth-mass planets: Bayesian Algorithms to tymacja nieparametryczna i estymacja w przypadku analyse transit timing observations”. losowania z populacji skończonych (nagroda Research Malay is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Development Award), Konferencja dotycząca uogólnio� Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the nych modeli liniowych (U.S. National Security Agency), International Statistical Institute and the International Bayesowskie neutralne sieci dla badań nad rakiem pro� Society for Bayesian Analysis. In 1993, he received the staty (National Insitute of Health), Badania walidacyjne Eugene Lukacs Distinguished Visiting Professorship of metod estymacji subdomen (Centre of Diseases Control Statistics at the Bowling Green State University. Malay and Prevention), Zagadnienia z zakresu analizy bay� was awarded the Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal at the esowskiej, empiryczna wiarygodność i teoria decyzji (U.S. 100th Anniversary of the Polish Statistical Society in 2012, National Security Agency), Wielowymiarowe empiryczne the Lifetime Achievement Award from the International i hierarchiczne metody bayesowskie w statystyce małych Indian Statistical Association in 2017 and the Small Area obszarów oraz Opracowanie modeli małych obszarów Estimation Award in 2019.

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dla ulepszonej estymacji na poziomie okręgowym dla In May 2014, an international conference in honour dzierżawy gruntów rolnych (U.S. Department of Agri- of Professor Malay Ghosh, entitled “Frontiers of Hier- culture) oraz Statystyka małych obszarów (ASA Senior archical Modelling in Observational Studies, Complex Research Fellowship). Profesor Ghosh brał także udział Surveys, and Big Data”, was hosted by the Joint Program w innych projektach badawczych: Statystyki porządkowe in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland at College i statystyki nieparametryczne, Konferencja dotycząca Park. Several areas to which Ghosh made substantial uogólnionych modeli liniowych oraz Poszukiwanie pla� contributions were represented, including small-area net o masie Ziemi: algorytmy bayesowskie do analizy estimation, objective Bayesian inference, hierarchical obserwacji czasów tranzytowych. Bayesian modelling, and statistical inference for case- Profesor Ghosh jest członkiem z wyboru American control studies. More than 200 people (including 16 of Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Stati- his doctoral students) celebrated Ghosh’s outstanding stics, International Statistical Institute oraz Internatio- contributions to statistics and his dedicated role as re- nal Society for Bayesian Analysis. W roku 1993 Profesor searcher, teacher and mentor. Ghosh odebrał tytuł „Eugene Lukacs Distinguished At last but not least, Malay taught a wide ranges of Visiting Professorship of Statistics” na Bowling Green course: Intermediate probability and inference, Advanced State University. Inne wyróżnienia to: Medal im. Jerzego inference, Sequential analysis, Nonparametric inference, Spławy-Neymana nadany w setną rocznicę powstania Decision theory, Large sample theory, General theory of Polskiego Towarzystwa Statystycznego (2012), Lifetime linear estimation and hypothesis testing, Multivariate Achievement Award przyznana przez International Indian analysis, descriptive statistics, Statistical models, Sta- Statistical Association (2017) oraz Small Area Estimation tistical methods, Multivariate nonparametric inference, Award (2019). Reliability theory, Introductory probability theory, Intro- W maju 2014 roku w ramach Joint Program in Survey ductory inference, Advanced probability theory, Intro- Methodology na University of Maryland, College Park ductory statistical methods, Applied Bayesian statistics, została zorganizowana na cześć Profesora Malaya Ghosha Bayesian theory and likelihood. międzynarodowa konferencja zatytułowana „Frontiers of The outstanding academic and research curriculum Hierarchical Modelling in Observational Studies, Complex mentioned above are the reasons to propose Professor Surveys, and Big Data”. Konferencja skupiła się na kilku Malay Ghosh as a candidate for a Degree of Doctor Honoris dziedzinach, do których rozwoju Profesor Ghosh znaczą- Causa. I have no doubt that he is an ideal candidate, co się przyczynił. Były to: statystyka małych obszarów, given the quality of his research curriculum during his wnioskowanie bayesowskie, hierarchiczne modelowanie impressive academic career. I strongly request that Pro-

50 Recenzje/Reviews

bayesowskie oraz statystyczne wnioskowanie w bada- fessor Malay Ghosh be awarded the Degree of Doctor niach kliniczno-kontrolnych. Ponad 200 osób (w tym Honoris Causa by the University of Economics in Katowice. jego 16 doktorantów) uczciło wybitny wkład Profesora Ghosha w rozwój nauk statystycznych oraz jego zaanga- żowanie w pracę, w której występował w roli badacza, nauczyciela i mentora. Profesor Ghosh prowadził ponadto zajęcia obejmujące szeroki zakres tematyczny: prawdopodobieństwo i wnio- skowanie – kurs średniozaawansowany, zaawansowa- ne wnioskowanie, analiza sekwencyjna, wnioskowanie nieparametryczne, teoria decyzji, metody asymptotyczne, ogólna teoria estymacji liniowej i weryfikacja hipotez, wielowymiarowa analiza, statystyka opisowa, modele statystyczne, metody statystyczne, wielowymiarowe wnioskowanie nieparametryczne, teoria niezawodno- ści, podstawy teorii prawdopodobieństwa, podstawy wnioskowania, teoria prawdopodobieństwa – kurs za- awansowany, podstawy metod statystycznych, stoso- wana statystyka bayesowska, teoria bayesowska oraz wiarygodność. Bogaty dorobek akademicki i badawczy przyto- czony powyżej w pełni uzasadniają kandydaturę Pro- fesora Malaya Ghosha do tytułu doktora honoris causa. Pan Profesor jest bez wątpienia idealnym kandydatem, biorąc po uwagę jakość jego badań przeprowadzonych w trakcie imponującej kariery akademickiej. Z głębokim przekonaniem wnoszę o nadanie Profesorowi Malayowi Ghoshowi tytułu doktora honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.

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Ralf T. Münnich Profesor Dr. Ralf T. Münnich Trier University Trier University Trewir, 28 stycznia 2020 r. Trier, 28th January 2020

Osiągnięcia naukowe Profesora Malaya Ghosha Scientific achievements of Professor Malay Ghosh

Był styczeń 2004 roku. Profesor Ghosh przestąpił próg sali It was in January 2004 when Professor Ghosh entered konferencyjnej w Raichak, indyjskiej wiosce położonej the conference room at the IMS/ASA-SRMS Joint Mini w Bengalu Zachodnim, gdzie odbywało się spotkanie IMS/ Meeting, Raichak, West Bengal, India. Of course, I knew ASA-SRMS. Właśnie przygotowywałem się do wystąpienia. who had just entered the room when I was preparing my Oczywiście wiedziałem, kto wszedł do sali. Niesamo- talk. But it was the incredible aura that surrounded him wita aura otaczająca Profesora sprawiła jednak, że na and made me pause. Quite unpretentiously he greeted chwilę przerwałem pracę. Powitał mnie w zaskakująco me with a “Hi, I’m Malay” – this incredibly impressive skromny sposób, słowami „Witaj, jestem Malay”. Ten researcher immediately showed his very friendly, warm imponujący naukowiec okazał się niezwykle przyja- and human manner with which he was no less impres- cielskim, miłym i życzliwym człowiekiem, co wcale nie sive. This special professional though kind manner was umniejszało wrażenia, jakie robił. Podczas wszystkich evident in all meetings, conversations and invitations, spotkań, rozmów i wizyt – o niektórych z nich powiem and I’ll mention some of them in a moment. Therefore, za chwilę kilka słów – w wyjątkowy dla siebie sposób it is a special pleasure and honour for me to formulate łączył profesjonalizm z uprzejmością. Przygotowanie a laudation for this outstanding researcher, Professor laudacji z okazji przyznania tytułu doktora honoris causa Malay Ghosh, on the occasion of his honorary doctorate Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach tak wybit- from the University of Economics in Katowice. nemu naukowcowi, jakim jest Profesor Malay Ghosh, to Professor Ghosh is without any doubt a world- dla mnie wielki zaszczyt i przyjemność. -leading researcher in statistics. His contributions to Nie ulega wątpliwości, że profesor Ghosh jest w swo- statistics cover a wide range of topics from theoretical jej dziedzinie wiodącym światowym ekspertem. Wniósł findings to very important applications in many differ-

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wkład zarówno w rozwój teorii statystyki, jak i w bada- ent areas. His main areas of interest are Bayesian and nia nad jej różnorodnymi praktycznymi zastosowania- empirical Bayesian methodology, resampling methods, mi. Zajmuje się głównie wnioskowaniem bayesowskim, and hierarchical modelling, as well as sampling and empirycznymi metodami bayesowskimi, metodami es- small area estimation. His amazing 59 page curriculum tymacji na podstawie podprób, modelami hierarchicz- vitae speaks for itself and you can easily find many other nymi, metodą reprezentacyjną oraz statystyką małych topics that have stimulated major interest. obszarów. Jego życiorys, liczący 59 stron, mówi sam za After completing his studies in Calcutta, Professor siebie – z łatwością można w nim znaleźć wiele innych Ghosh subsequently took the next steps of his career tematów, które wzbudziły ogromne zainteresowanie. at UNC in Chapel Hill, the Indian Statistical Institute in Po ukończeniu studiów w Kalkucie, Profesor Ghosh Calcutta, and Iowa State University in Ames, until he kontynuował karierę na University of North w Chapel Hill, became full professor in Calcutta. After another period Indian Statistical Institute w Kalkucie oraz Iowa State at Iowa State, he finally arrived at the department of w Ames, aby ostatecznie uzyskać tytuł profesora zwy- statistics at the University of Florida at Gainesville in czajnego w Kalkucie. Wrócił na jakiś czas na Iowa State 1982. Though he completed several prominent visiting University, a w roku 1982 rozpoczął pracę na wydziale professorships far off, he never left Florida. Since 1998, statystyki na University of Florida w Gainesville. Chociaż he has been Distinguished Professor of Statistics at the wielokrotnie pracował jako profesor wizytujący w różnych University of Florida, Gainesville, and currently the only miejscach świata, nigdy nie porzucił tej uczelni. W 1998 one at this institution. roku otrzymał tytuł Distinguished Professor w dziedzi- Professor Ghosh has served in almost 20 different nie statystyki na University of Florida. Dziś jest jedynym roles as an editor and an associate editor for international przedstawicielem tej uczelni posiadającym taki tytuł. journals. Amongst these journals are highly prestigious Pan Profesor piastował prawie 20 stanowisk redak- publications as the “Journal of the American Statistical tora oraz redaktora działowego w wielu międzynaro- Association” and the “Annals of Statistics”. dowych czasopismach, takich jak prestiżowy „Journal Relating to his own research, Professor Ghosh can of the American Statistical Association” czy „Annals of be proud of over 300 peer-reviewed papers with nine Statistics”. more in press, and by the time of writing this lauda- Jeśli chodzi o badania własne, Profesor Ghosh może tory speech surely even more. His research work is pochwalić się ponad 300 publikacjami, kolejnych dzie- published in the most prestigious statistics journals więć znajduje się w druku. Ta liczba z pewnością wzrosła including the “Annals of Statistics”, the “Journal of od momentu napisania niniejszej recenzji. Jego badania the American Statistical Association”, “Biometrika”, the

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naukowe są publikowane w najbardziej prestiżowych “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B”, as well as czasopismach statystycznych, takich jak „��������������Annals of Sta- many other well-known journals. tistics”, „Journal of the American Statistical Association”, Since 1976, Professor Ghosh has supervised and co- „Biometrika”, „Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B” supervised more than 60 PhD students. The variety of oraz w innych znanych czasopismach naukowych. topics of the theses is as impressive as the range of his Od roku 1976 Profesor Ghosh był promotorem lub own research, covering theoretical and practical find- współpromotorem ponad 60 doktorantów. Różnorod- ings in so many directions. Amongst his students are so ność tematów rozpraw doktorskich, dotyczących rozma- famous researchers who have also become professors, itych odkryć teoretycznych i praktycznych, jest równie such as Nitis Mukhopadyay, Partha Lahiri, and Gauri imponująca jak zakres jego własnych badań. Pośród Datta. It is not solely his own list of PhD students who jego studentów są znani naukowcy, również mogący have benefitted from his rich set of ideas but also a long poszczycić się tytułem profesora, tacy jak: Nitis Mukhopa- list of guests. And whenever I speak to one of his stu- dyay, Partha Lahiri i Gauri Datta. Z bogactwa pomysłów dents, I hear only very warm words about his research Profesora czerpali nie tylko doktoranci. Gdy rozmawiam and mental support. Possibly sometimes so impressive z jego studentami, zawsze słyszę ciepłe słowa na temat that students face a challenge of making his ideas into wsparcia naukowego i duchowego, jakie okazuje swoim reality as quickly as Professor Ghosh develops them. This podopiecznym. Prawdziwym wyzwaniem jest dla nich unbelievable intensity in research ideas and promotion dotrzymanie kroku Profesorowi w przekuwaniu coraz to of students may sometimes provide a special challenge nowych pomysłów w rzeczywiste rozwiązania. Inten- for students. However, he has always associated this sywność procesu badawczego oraz prac nad doktorata- with particularly positive support to foster a best possible mi może czasami stanowić wyzwanie, jednak Profesor development of his students and guests. Ghosh zawsze stara się wspierać swoich podopiecznych As you might expect that this outstanding re- i zapewnić im jak najlepsze możliwości rozwoju. searcher would likely be less committed to committee Można by sądzić, że tak wybitny naukowiec nie services, you will be surprised to see his very long list of znajdzie już czasu, aby angażować się w życie uczel- contributions to all faculties where he was and is present. ni. Nic bardziej mylnego – Profesor Ghosh zawsze był He has been active in many directions in the university i jest aktywnym członkiem społeczności uniwersyteckiej, system, with special emphasis on postgraduate educa- skupiając się przede wszystkim na edukacji podyplomo- tion. In addition to these university committees, he wej. Był zaangażowany również w działalność pozauni- showed major support on many different occasions wersytecką. To niewiarygodne, że udało mu się łączyć outside the university. It is unbelievable, how he could

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tak wiele dodatkowych obowiązków z fantastyczną manage all these duties besides his amazing research pracą badawczą. Pełnił różne funkcje w stowarzysze- record. These activities encompass various roles in so- niach takich jak Institute for Mathematical Statistics cieties such as the Institute for Mathematical Statistics czy American Statistical Association. Szacunek, jakim and the American Statistical Association, for which he cieszy się Pan Profesor, sprawia, że często zaprasza się served in many different positions. Additionally, he go do udziału w pracach komitetów programowych was well respected and often invited to participate in międzynarodowych konferencji. Nie trzeba wyjaśniać, programme committees for international conferences. że sama jego obecność zwiększa zainteresowanie po- It is self-explanatory that having him on a board was szczególnymi wydarzeniami. Podczas cyklu Small Area already a major point of attraction for any conference. Statistics Conferences był zawsze wybierany na członka Especially for the series of Small Area Statistics Confer- komitetu doradczego. ences, he was always appointed as member of the Profesor Ghosh był często proszony o zorganizowa- advisory committee. nie sesji naukowych, napisał również ponad 120 arty- As Professor Ghosh was certainly often asked to kułów w odpowiedzi na zaproszenia płynące z całego organise invited sessions, he himself has provided an świata. Ponadto wygłosił 130 wykładów na zaproszenie, impressively long list of over 120 invited papers covering dotyczących różnych tematów związanych z jego za- so many regions all over the world. Additionally, he has interesowaniami badawczymi. Biorąc pod uwagę tak provided 130 invited and special invited lectures in such niewiarygodny dorobek, trudno się dziwić, że w życio- different areas of his interest. This incredible reputation is rysie Pana Profesora znajdziemy stosunkowo niewiele almost certainly the reason why he shows comparatively referatów wygłoszonych nie na zaproszenie. few contributed papers in his curriculum vitae. Profesor Ghosh nie tylko wniósł ogromny wkład Besides his amazing list of research contributions, he w badania naukowe, ale był też głównym wykonawcą was the principal investigator in many highly recognised w licznych cenionych projektach badawczych i grantach research projects and grants, of which many stemmed naukowych, w tym w wielu wspieranych przez National from the National Research Foundation. This amazing list Research Foundation. Współpracował również z wiodą- was enriched by further collaborations with important cymi organizacjami, takimi jak U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau organisations such the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics oraz National Agriculture Statistics of Labor Statistics, and the National Agriculture Statistics Services. To kolejny dowód na to, jak wiele teoretycznych Services. This again proves how the many theoretical odkryć Profesora Ghosha znajduje praktyczne zastoso- findings of Professor Ghosh serve as an important con- wanie w różnych obszarach statystyki. tribution to applications in many fields of statistics.

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Chciałbym omówić teraz wybitne zasługi Profesora Let me focus on some of Professor Ghosh’s out- Ghosha, przedstawiając mój własny punkt widzenia. standing contributions, though this is more a personal Jego osiągnięcia w zakresie statystyki małych obszarów view. His contributions to small area statistics are surely są bez wątpienia pionierskie. pioneering. W 1987 roku, razem z profesorem Lahirim, opubliko- In 1987, he published, together with Professor La- wał artykuł Robust����������������������������������������� empirical Bayes estimation of vari� hiri, a paper on Robust empirical Bayes estimation of ances from stratified samples w „Journal of the American variances from stratified samples in the “Journal of the Statistical Association”. Publikacja dotyczy jednoczesnej American Statistical Association”. The focus of the paper estymacji średnich w wielu populacjach skończonych. is a simultaneous estimation of means in multiple finite Metoda ta znajduje zastosowanie w estymacji rocz- populations. This is essentially useful and applicable for nych przychodów lub stopy bezrobocia, które muszą estimating annual incomes or unemployment rates which być szacowane jednocześnie w wielu podpopulacjach. are to be estimated in many areas simultaneously. The Praca Profesora Ghosha wywarła znaczący wpływ na research has influenced a wide spectrum of research from szerokie spektrum badań, poczynając od empirycznego empirical Bayes prediction to frequentist methodology wnioskowania bayesowskiego, a kończąc na statystyce of small area estimation, which can be drawn from far małych obszarów, czego dowodem może być ponad more than 100 citations in these research areas. 100-krotna liczba cytowań w tych dziedzinach nauki. His article on Small area estimation: An appraisal, Artykuł Small area estimation: An appraisal, napisa- together with J.N.K. Rao, has been published in “Sta- ny wspólnie z J.N.K Rao, został opublikowany w „Stati- tistical Science” in 1994 and received major attention stical Science” w roku 1994. Skalę zainteresowania arty- being cited over 1,000 times. kułem ukazuje fakt, że był on cytowany ponad 1000 razy. Professor Ghosh’s research covers so many different Badania Profesora Ghosha dotyczą wielu dziedzin: areas: he has also provided important contributions to przyczynił się znacząco także do rozwoju ekonomii. Licz- economics. Several papers and presentations focused ne prace i prezentacje dotyczyły konkretnych aspektów on specific aspects of income and its parameters. The przychodu oraz jego parametrów. Metody zastosowane methods in use cover Bayesian cross-sectional and in- w tych badaniach to m.in. przekrojowe i międzyokreso- tertemporal approaches as well as regional aspects using we podejścia bayesowskie oraz regionalne aspekty sta- small area techniques. Especially research on regional tystyki małych obszarów. Szczególnie istotnym tematem incomes provides an important topical theme which są badania nad dochodami regionalnymi – znajdują one plays an important role in applications and even in szerokie zastosowanie również jako element wspierający policy support. Reliable figures more and more play

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decyzje i działania polityczne. Pewne i rzetelne dane an utmost important role for a modern democracy and pełnią rolę najwyższej wagi we współczesnej demokracji, Professor Ghosh’s research on benchmarking in small area a badania Profesora Ghosha dotyczące benchmarkingu statistics enables the provision of the necessary basis. w statystyce małych obszarów zapewniają niezbędną In light of this economics related research, Professor podstawę w tym zakresie. W związku z prowadzonymi Ghosh visited Katowice several times. badaniami dotyczącymi ekonomii Pan Profesor kilku- Another important area of his research focuses on krotnie odwiedził Katowice. the American census which surely serves as an important Kolejnym ważnym obszarem badań Profesora Ghosha source of economic data for the society. I don’t need jest amerykański spis powszechny, który z całą pewnością to remind you that his many contributions on a variety jest źródłem istotnych danych ekonomicznych na temat of regression methods surely serve as an outstanding społeczeństwa. Oczywiste jest, iż wkład Profesora w roz- basis for modern quantitative research. Finally, Pro- wój metod z zakresu analizy regresji stanowi wybitną fessor Ghosh’s research on finite population sampling podstawę współczesnych metod ilościowych. Dodatkowo and Bayesian inference for statistics, in general, and badania Profesora Ghosha na temat losowania z populacji for econometrics provides excellent findings which are skończonych oraz wnioskowania bayesowskiego w sta- necessary input for modern economic research. tystyce i ekonometrii dostarczają doskonałych danych Professor Ghosh’s eminence as a statistician has wejściowych niezbędnych do prowadzenia współczesnych already been well recognised internationally. He is a fel- badań z zakresu ekonomii. low of the American Statistical Association, the Institute Jako statystyk, Profesor Ghosh zdobył światowe of Mathematical Statistics, and the International Society uznanie. Jest członkiem American Statistical Association, for Bayesian Statisticians. He is an elected member of Institute of Mathematical Statistics oraz International the International Statistical Institute. He is a holder of Society for Bayesian Statisticians, a także członkiem z wy- the Jerzy Spława-Neyman Medal (2012), the Lifetime boru International Statistical Institute. Jest zdobywcą Achievement Award from the Indian Statistical Associa- Medalu im. Jerzego Spławy-Neymana (2012), Lifetime tion (2017), and the Small Area Estimation Award (2019). Achievement Award, przyznawanej przez Indian Statisti���������- Without a shadow of doubt, Professor Ghosh is an cal Association (2017), a także The Small Area Estimation distinguished authority in statistics. His contributions Award (2019). to statistics have not only been an example for junior Bez cienia wątpliwości można uznać Profesora Ma- researchers but for everyone working in this field. They laya Ghosha za wybitny autorytet w dziedzinie statysty- have shown important methods providing paths for ki. Jego dokonania inspirowały zarówno młodych, jak future research. In all ways, Professor Ghosh’s a remark-

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i doświadczonych badaczy. Metody przez niego opra- ably positive kind manner combined with his incredible cowane wytyczały ścieżki kolejnych badań. Ze wszech productivity and creativity deserves to be awarded the miar pozytywna i życzliwa postawa Profesora Ghosha doctorate honoris causa. połączona z niewiarygodną wydajnością i kreatywnością Finally, I recommend with strong emphasis this zasługują na wyróżnienie tytułem doktora honoris causa. outstanding researcher, Professor Malay Ghosh, for the Wszystko to pozwala mi wyrazić głębokie prze- doctorate honoris causa from the University of Economics konanie, iż Profesor Malay Ghosh zasługuje na tytuł in Katowice. doktora honoris causa Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.

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Wykład Lecture

Malay Ghosh University of Florida

Small Area Estimation: his continued support, friendship and for recommend- An Early History ing my nomination for this award, and the Honourable Rector of this University for the actual nomination. I also want to acknowledge my parents and grandparents for Abstract their support towards my academic advancement and The objective of my talk is to trace the early history to my wife for her unfailing support for forty nine years. of small area estimation. In particular, synthetic esti- My association with your University, and particularly mators, Fay–Herriot (Fay and Herriot, 1979) area level the statistics group, spans over more than a decade, model-based estimators and Battese, Harter and Fuller and I am particularly impressed by the high quality of (1988) unit level model-based estimators are discussed research of the faculty of statistics. As an example. I may at some length, and examples are provided to illustrate draw attention to the work of Janusz Wywiał on audit these methods. sampling, a non-standard and highly innovative work, and of Tomasz Żądło on mixed effect models with many 1. Prologue applications to small area estimation. I am deeply honoured and happy to receive this Hon- Back to the topic of today’s talk, I want to trace ourary Doctoral Degree from the University of Econom- the early history of small area estimation. Small area ics in Katowice. This honour is beyond my dream, and estimation is a topic of current interest and research in I accept it very humbly with sincerest gratitude. I thank this area is simply phenomenal. It will take a whole everyone in the Senate who selected me for this award. semester or more of lectures potentially to bring a person Also, I take this opportunity to acknowledge my eternal up to date to all aspects of small area estimation. In my indebtedness to my longtime friend Janusz Wywiał for assessment, even that may not be feasible.

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Besides, some of the early small area techniques, is any of several statistical techniques involving estima- which were introduced in the seventies and eighties, are tion of parameters in small ‘sub-populations’ of interest still currently in vogue, and are used by many agencies included in a larger ‘survey’. The term ‘small area’ in around the world. Mention may be made of ‘synthetic’ this context generally refers to a small geographical estimation which because of its simplicity is used by many area such as a county, census tract or a school district. government agencies. The Fay–Herriot model, introduced It can also refer to a ‘small domain’ cross-classified by in the late seventies, is still by far the most popular esti- several demographic characteristics, such as age, sex, mation technique around the globe. The same comment ethnicity etc. I want to emphasize that it is not just the applies to the model of Battese, Harter and Fuller which area, but the ‘smallness’ of the targeted population is applicable whenever microdata is available. within an area which constitutes the basis of small area People looking for a more up to date account of estimation. For example, if a survey is targeted towards the topic should consult Rao and Molina (2015) as well a population of interest with prescribed accuracy, the as some excellent review articles by Pfeffermann (2002, sample size in a particular subpopulation may not be 2013) and by Rao (2003, 2006). adequate to generate similar accuracy. This is because I also want to acknowledge my indebtedness to many if a survey is conducted with sample size determined to of my colleagues influencing my own research either by attain prescribed accuracy in a large area, one may not collaboration or by prolonged meaningful discussion. They have the resources available to conduct a second survey are too many to mention individually. J.N.K. Rao and Danny to achieve similar accuracy for smaller areas. Pfeffermann deserve particular mention. I also want to A domain (area) specific estimator is ‘direct’ if it is thank Partha Lahiri, Gauri Datta and Rebecca Steorts, some based only on the domain-specific sample data. A do- of my most successful students in this area of research. main is regarded as ‘small’ if domain-specific sample size is not large enough to produce estimates of de- 2. Introduction sired precision. Domain sample size often increases with The first and foremost question that one may ask is population size of the domain, but that need not always “what is small area estimation?”. Small area estimation be the case. This requires use of ‘additional’ data, be

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it other administrative data not used in the original those related to small businesses, rely heavily on lo- survey, or data from other related areas. The resulting cal socio-economic conditions. Small area estimation is estimates are called ‘indirect’ estimates that ‘borrow of particular interest for the economics in transition in strength’ for the variable of interest from related areas central and eastern European countries and the former and/or time periods to increase the ‘effective’ sample size. Soviet Union countries. In the 1990’s these countries This is usually done through the use of models, mostly have moved away from centralized decision making. ‘explicit’, or at least ‘implicit’ that links the related areas As a result, sample surveys are now used to produce and/or time periods. estimates for large areas as well as small areas. Historically, small area statistics have long been used, albeit without the name ‘small area’ attached to it. 3. Examples For example, such statistics existed in eleventh century Before tracing this early history, let me cite a few ex- England and seventeenth century Canada based on either amples which illustrate the ever increasing current day census or on administrative records. Demographers have importance of small area estimation. One important long been using a variety of indirect methods for small ongoing small area estimation problem at the U.S. Bu- area estimation of population and other characteristics reau of the Census is the small area income and poverty of interest in postcensal years. estimation (SAIPE) project. This is a result of a Bill passed In recent years, the demand for small area statistics by the US House of Representatives requiring the Secre- has greatly increased worldwide. The need is felt for tary of Commerce to produce and publish at least every formulating policies and programs, in the allocation of two years beginning in 1996, current data related to the government funds and in regional planning. For instance, incidence of poverty in the United States. Specifically, legislative acts by national governments have created the legislation states that “to the extent feasible”, the a need for small area statistics. A good example is SAIPE secretary shall produce estimates of poverty for states, (Small area Income and Poverty Estimation) mandated by counties and local jurisdictions of government and school the US Legislature. Demand from the private sector has districts. For school districts, estimates are to be made also increased because business decisions, particularly of the number of poor children aged 5–17 years. It also

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specifies production of state and county estimates of Bureau used to provide the Treasury Department with the number of poor persons aged 65 and over. Per Capita Income (PCI) estimates and other statistics for These small area statistics are used by a broad range state and local governments receiving funds under the of customers including policy makers at the state and general revenue sharing program. Treasury Department local levels as well as the private sector. This includes used these statistics to determine allocations to local allocation of Federal and state funds. Earlier the decen- governments within the different states by dividing the nial census was the only source of income distribution corresponding state allocations. and poverty data for households, families and persons United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has for such small geographic areas. Use of the recentmost long been interested in prediction of areas under corn decennial census data pertaining to the economic situ- and soybeans. Battese, Harter and Fuller (1988) consid- ation is unreliable especially as one moves further away ered the problem of predicting areas under corn and from the census year. The first SAIPE estimates were is- soybeans for 12 counties in North-Central Iowa based on sued in early 1997 for states and counties for the income the 1978 June enumerative survey data as well as Landsat year 1993. The SAIPE state and county estimates include Satellite Data. The USDA statistical reporting Service field median household income and number of poor people, staff determined the area of corn and soybeans in 37 poor children under age 5 (for states only), poor children sample segments of 12 counties in North Central Iowa by aged 5–17 and poor people under age 18. Also starting interviewing farm operators. In conjunction with LANDSAT early 1999 estimates of the number of poor school-aged readings obtained during August and September 1978, children were provided for 14,000 school districts. USDA procedures were used to classify the crop cover Another old example is the Federal-State Co-Opera- for all pixels in the 12 counties. tive Program (FSCP). The goal was to provide high-quality consistent series of post-censal county population esti- 4. Synthetic estimation mates with comparability from area to area. In addition An estimator is called ‘Synthetic’ if a direct estimator for to the county estimates, several members of FSCP now a large area covering a small area is used as an indirect produce subcounty estimates as well. Also, the US Census estimator for that area. The terminology was first used

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by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. These number of families in the counties. A subsample of area estimators are based on a strong underlying assump- segments was selected from each of the sampled county tion is that the small area bears the same characteristic areas and families within the selected area segments for the large area. were interviewed. For example, if are the direct estimates In addition to the direct estimates, an estimate of average income for areas with population sizes of , obtained from a mail survey was used as a single , we may use the overall estimate covariate in the linear regression of on . The mail for a particular area, say, , where survey was first conducted by sampling 1,000 families . The idea is that this synthetic estimator from each county area and mailing questionnaires. The has less mean squared error (MSE) compared to the direct were biased due to nonresponse (about 20% response estimator if the bias is not too strong. However, rate) and incomplete coverage, but were anticipated to a heavily biased estimator can affect the MSE as well. have high correlation with the . Indeed, it turned One of the early use of synthetic estimation appears out that . For nonsampled counties, in Hansen, Hurwitz and Madow (1953, pp. 483–486). They regression synthetic estimates were . applied synthetic regression estimation in the context Another example of Synthetic Estimation is due of radio listening. The objective was to estimate the to Maria Gonzalez and Christine Hoza (1978, pp. 7–15). median number of radio stations heard during the day Their objective was to develop intercensal estimates of in each of more than 500 counties in the US. The direct various population characteristics for small areas. They estimate of the true (unknown) median was ob- discussed synthetic estimates of unemployment where tained from a radio listening survey based on personal the larger area is a geographic division and the small interviews for 85 county areas. The selection was made area is a county. by first stratifying the population county areas into 85 Specifically, let denote the proportion of labor strata based on geographical region and available radio force in county that corresponds to cell . service type. Then one county was selected from each Let denote the corresponding unemployment rate for stratum with probability proportional to the estimated cell based on the geographic division where county

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belongs. Then the synthetic estimate of the unemploy- . Note ment rate for county is given by . . All one needs to know is the These authors also suggested synthetic regression es- population average in addition to the already known timate for unemployment rate. sample average to find . While direct estimators suffer from large variances The Composite Estimator can be given a model-based and coefficients of variation for small areas, synthetic justification as well (Holt, Smith and Tomberlin, 1979, estimators suffer from bias which often can be very pp. 405–410). Consider the model . severe. This led to the development of composite estima- Best linear unbiased estimator of is obtained by minimiz- tors which are weighted averages of direct and synthetic ing . The solution is . estimators. The motivation was to balance the design Now estimate by bias of synthetic estimators and the large variability of . This simplifies to the direct estimators in a small area. expression given in the previous paragraph. Let denote the characteristic of interest for the th unit in the th area; ; . 5. Model-based small area estimation Let denote some auxiliary characteristic for the th Small area models link explicitly the sampling model unit in the th local area. Note that the population with random area specific effects. The latter accounts means are and . for between area variation beyond that is explained by We denote the sampled observations as , auxiliary variables. We classify small area models into with corresponding auxiliary variables , . two broad types. First the ‘area level’ models that relate Let . small area direct estimators to area-specific covariates. A Direct Estimator (Ratio Estimator of is Such models are necessary if unit (or element) level . The corresponding Ratio Synthetic Estima- data are not available. Second the ‘unit level’ models tor of is , where that relate the unit values of a study variable to unit- and . A Composite Estimator specific covariates. Indirect estimators based on small of is , where area models will be called ‘model-based estimators’.

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The model-based approach to small area estimation ; ; . offers several advantages. First, ‘optimal’ estimators can We assume has rank . In vector notations, be derived under the assumed model. Second, area spe- we write and . cific measures of variability can be associated with each For known , the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of estimator unlike global measures (averaged over small is where , areas) often used with traditional indirect estimators. and . Third, models can be validated from the sample data. The BLUP is also the best unbiased predictor under as- Fourth, one can entertain a variety of models depending sumed normality. on the nature of the response variables and the complex- It is possible to give an alternative Bayesian formula- ity of data structures. tion of the Fay–Herriot model. Let ; The classic small area model is due to Fay and Herriot . Then the Bayes estimator of (1979) with Sampling Model: , is , where . If and Linking Model: , . The instead we put a uniform ( ) prior for , the Bayes Target is estimation of the , . It is as- estimator of is the same as its BLUP. Thus, there is sumed that are independent , where the are a duality between the BLUP and the Bayes estimator. known and the are iid , where is unknown. However, in practice, is unknown. A hierarchical The assumption of known can be put to question prior joint for both and is (Morris, 1983). because they are, in fact, sample estimates. But the Otherwise, estimate to get the resulting empirical Bayes assumption is needed to avoid nonidentifiablity in the or empirical BLUP. We now describe the latter. absence of microdata. This is evident when one writes There are several methods for estimation of . . In the presence of microdata, it is Fay and Herriot (1979) suggested solving iteratively the possible to estimate the as well. An example appears two equations (i) and (ii) in Ghosh, Myung and Moura (2018). . The motivation for (i) comes A few notations are needed to describe the Fay–Herriot from the fact that is the best linear unbiased estimator procedure. Let ; ; (BLUE) of when is known. The second is a method

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of moments equation noting that the expectation of , say. However, the the left hand side equals . third term needs an approximation, The Fay–Herriot method is not too convenient for an- and an approximate expression correct up to as alytical studies. Prasad and Rao (1990) suggested instead given in Prasad and Rao (1990) is a unweighted least squares approach to estimate . Spe- , say. Further, an estimator cifically, they proposed the estimator . of this MSE correct up to is Then , . This approximation is justified by noticing , . This leads to . A further and accordingly refinement to this approximation is due to Datta, Rao . The corresponding estimator of is and Smith (2005). Alternately, an estimator based on , where the MLE of is given in Datta and Lahiri (2000). . A well-known example where this method has Prasad and Rao (1990) also found an approximation been applied is estimation of median income of four- to the mean squared error (Bayes risk) of their EBLUP or EB -person families for the 50 states and the District of estimators. Under the subjective prior , Columbia. The U.S. Department of Health and Human the Bayes estimator of is Services (HHS) has a direct need for such data at the . Also, write state level in formulating its Energy assistance program . Then for low-income families. The basic source of data is the . The first term is the Bayes risk annual demographic supplement to the March sample if both and were known. The second term is the of the Current Population Survey (CPS) which provides additional uncertainty due to estimation of when is the median income of four-person families for the known. The third term accounts for further uncertainty preceding year. Direct use of CPS estimates is usually due to estimation of . undesirable because of large CV’s associated with them. One can get exact expressions More reliable results are obtained in these days by , say, and using empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods.

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Here sample estimates of the state medians for the income set up by the committee on National Statis- current year (c) as obtained from the Current Popula- tics. They recommended the following four criteria for tion Survey (CPS) were used as dependent variables. comparison. Here denotes the estimate while Adjusted census median (c) defined as the base year denotes the „truth”. (the recent most decennial census) census median (b) times the ratio of the BEA PCI in year (c) to year (b) Average relative bias . was used as the dependent variable. Following the Average squared relative bias suggestion of Fay (1987), we used the census median . for the base year (b) as a second independent variable. Average absolute bias . We compared the EB estimates, CPS estimates, and Average squared deviation . the Bureau of the Census estimates against the 1979 census estimates. Table 1 compares the Sample Median, the Bureau Estimate and the Empirical BLUP according to the four criteria as Table 1. Average relative bias, Average squared relative mentioned above. bias, Average absolute bias and Average squared devia- tions (in 100,000) of the estimates 6. Unit Specific Models Unit Specific Models are ones where observations are Bureau Sample Specification EB estimate median available for the sampled units in the local areas. In addition, unit-specific auxiliary information is avail- Aver. rel. bias 0.325 0.498 0.204 Aver. sq. rel. bias 0.002 0.003 0.001 able for these sampled units, and possibly for the Aver. abs. bias 722.8 1090.4 450.6 non-sampled units as well. We consider local areas Aver. sq. dev. 8.36 16.31 3.34 where the th local area has units with a sample of size . The comparison was based on four criteria recommended The sampled observations are denoted by by the panel on small area estimates of population and . The model considered is

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. The ’s and USDA Statistical Reporting Service field staff determined ’s are mutually independent with the iid the area of corn and soybeans in 37 sample segments and the independent . . (each segment was about 250 hectares) of 12 counties Battese, Harter and Fuller (1988) considered the in North Central Iowa by interviewing farm operators. nested error regression model in the context of esti- Based on LANDSAT readings obtained during August and mation of corn and soybean for 12 counties in north- September 1978, USDA procedures were used to classify central Iowa. Let denote the area devoted to corn the crop cover for all pixels (a term for picture element or soybean for the th segment in the th county. Also, about 0.45 hectares) in the 12 counties. An alternative let where denote the no. of approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model is pixels classifed as corn for the th segment in the th available in Datta and Ghosh (1992). county and denotes the no. of pixels classified as soybean for the th segment in the th county. The vector Table 2. The predicted hectares of soybeans and standard of regression coefficients is denoted by errors

They took County A second example appears in Ghosh and Rao (1994). Cerro Gordo 78.8 78.2 77.5 11.7 11.6 12.7 Let denote wages and salaries paid by the th busi- Franklin 67.1 65.9 64.8 8.2 7.5 7.8 ness firm in the th census division in Canada. Also, let Hamilton 94.4 94.6 95.0 11.2 11.4 12.4 , where denotes the gross business Hancock 100.4 100.8 101.1 6.2 6.1 6.3 income of the th business firm in the th census division. Hardin 75.4 75.1 74.9 6.5 6.4 6.6 Humboldt 81.9 80.6 79.2 10.4 9.3 10.0 Here was found more appropriate than the Kossuth 118.2 119.2 120.2 6.6 6.0 6.2 usual model involving homoscedasticity. Pocahontas 113.9 113.7 113.8 7.5 7.5 7.9 Battese, Harter and Fuller (1988) considered pre- Webster 110.0 109.7 109.6 6.6 6.6 6.8 dicting areas under corn and soybeans for 12 counties Winnebago 97.3 98.0 98.7 7.7 7.5 7.9 in North Central Iowa based on 1978 June Enumera- Worth 87.8 87.2 86.6 11.1 11.1 12.1 tive Survey data as well as LANDSAT satellite data. The Wright 111.9 112.4 112.9 7.7 7.6 8.0

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Table 2 gives HB predictors ( ), the EB predictors predictors in small area estimation problems. Sta� ( ), the Battese, Harter and Fuller (1988) predictors tistica Sinica, 10, 613–627. ( ), and the associated standard errors , , • Datta, G.S., Rao, J.N.K. and Smith, D.D. (2005). On and , respectively for mean areas under soybeans measuring the variability of small area estimators un- in the 12 counties. der a basic area level model. Biometrika, 92, 183–196. • Fay, R.E. and Herriot, R.A. (1979). Estimates of in- 7. Final Remarks come for small places: An application of James-Stein The literature on small area estimation is vast, and new procedure to census data. Journal of the American methodology with applications is appearing in growing Statistical Association, 74, 269–277. numbers. Rather than covering each and every aspect of • Ghosh, M. and Rao, J.N.K. (1994). Small area estima- the subject, I have included a few topics which trace early tion: An appraisal. Statistical Science, 9(1), 55–93. history of the subject ending in the late eighties. I sincerely • Ghosh, M., Myung, J. and Moura, F.A.S. (2018). hope that I have been able to provide a synopsis which will Robust Bayesian small area estimation. Survey help the interested reader to delve further into the subject. Methodology, 44, 101–115. • Gonzalez, M.E. and Hoza, C. (1978). Small area References estimation with application to unemployment • Battese, G.E., Harter, R.M. and Fuller, W.A. (1988). and housing estimates. Journal of the American An error components model for prediction of county Statistical Association, 73, 7–15. crop area using survey and satellite data. Journal • Hansen, M.H., Hurwitz, W.N. and Madow, W.G. of the American Statistical Association, 83, 28–36. (1953). Sample survey methods and theory. Wiley, • Datta, G.S. and Ghosh, M. (1991). Bayesian predic- New York. tion in linear models: Applications to small area • Holt, D., Smith, T.M.F. and Tomberlin, T.J. (1979). estimation. The Annals of Statistics, 19, 1748–1770. A model-based approach for small subgroups of • Datta, G.S. and Lahiri. P. (2000). A unified measure a population. Journal of the American Statistical of uncertainty of estimated best linear unbiased Association, 74, 405–410.

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• Morris, C.N. (1983). Parametric empirical Bayes in- ference: theory and applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 47–55. • Pfeffermann, D. (2002). Small area estimation: New developments and direction. International Statisti� cal Review, 70, 125–143. • Pfeffermann, D. (2013). New important develop- ments in small area estimation. Statistical Science, 28, 40–68. • Prasad, N.G.N. and Rao, J.N.K. (1990). The estima- tion of mean squared error of small area estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 163–171. • Rao, J.N.K. (2003). Some new developments in small area estimation. Journal of the Iranian Statistical Society, 2, 145–169. • Rao, J.N.K. (2006). Inferential issues in small area estimation: Some new developments. Statistics in Transition, 7, 523–526. • Rao, J.N.K. and Molina, I. (2015). Small area estima� tion, 2nd edition. Wiley, New Jersey.

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Promocyjne wydawnictwo okolicznościowe z okazji uroczystości nadania doktoratu honoris causa Panu Profesorowi Malayowi Ghoshowi / Promotional publication printed in connection with the granting of the honoris causa degree to Professor Malay Ghosh

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