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Covid-19 Outbreak in Northern Italy: Did Particulate Matter Really Play a Key Role?

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Covid-19 Outbreak in Northern Italy: Did Particulate Matter Really Play a Key Role? medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128215; this version posted June 12, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 1 CoViD-19 outbreak in Northern Italy: Did particulate matter really 2 play a key role? 3 Maria Cristina Collivignarelli 4 Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture 5 University of Pavia 6 via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 7 8 Interdepartmental Centre for Water Research 9 University of Pavia 10 via Ferrata 3, 27100 Pavia, Italy 11 [email protected] 12 13 Alessandro Abbà 14 Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics 15 University of Brescia 16 via Branze 43, 25123 Brescia, Italy 17 [email protected] 18 19 Francesca Maria Caccamo 20 Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture 21 University of Pavia 22 via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 23 [email protected] 24 25 Giorgio Bertanza 26 Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics 27 University of Brescia 28 via Branze 43, 25123 Brescia, Italy 29 [email protected]: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice. 1 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128215; this version posted June 12, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 30 31 Roberta Pedrazzani 32 Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering 33 University of Brescia 34 via Branze 38, I-25123, Brescia, Italy 35 [email protected] 36 37 Marco Baldi 38 Department of Chemistry 39 University of Pavia 40 viale Taramelli 10, 27100 Pavia, Italy 41 [email protected] 42 43 Paola Ricciardi 44 Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture 45 University of Pavia 46 via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 47 [email protected] 48 49 Marco Carnevale Miino (*) 50 (Corresponding author) 51 Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture 52 University of Pavia 53 via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 54 [email protected] 55 2 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128215; this version posted June 12, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 56 CoViD-19 outbreak in Northern Italy: Did particulate matter really 57 play a key role? 58 Maria Cristina Collivignarelli 1,2, Alessandro Abbà 3, Francesca Maria Caccamo 1, Giorgio Bertanza 3, 59 Roberta Pedrazzani 4, Marco Baldi 5, Paola Ricciardi 1, Marco Carnevale Miino 1,* 60 1: Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Pavia, via Ferrata 1, 27100 Pavia, Italy 61 2: Interdepartmental Centre for Water Research, University of Pavia, via Ferrata 3, 27100 Pavia, Italy 62 3: Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics, University of Brescia, via Branze 63 43, 25123 Brescia, Italy 64 4: Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Brescia, via Branze 38, I-25123, Brescia, Italy 65 5: Department of Chemistry, University of Pavia, viale Taramelli 10, 27100 Pavia, Italy 66 *: Corresponding author -> Email address: [email protected] (Marco Carnevale Miino) 67 68 Abstract: 69 Northern Italian regions have been the most affected from CoViD-19 compared to other Italian areas and are also the 70 zones where air pollutants concentration has been higher than in the rest of Italy. The aim of the research is analysing 71 possible correlations between air pollutants PM10 and PM2.5 and the rapidity of the spread of the infection caused by 72 CoViD-19 in Northern Italy. PM10 and PM2.5 data for all the 41 studied cities were collected from the local 73 environmental protection agencies. In order to compare air quality data with epidemiological data (Td), a statistical 74 analysis was conducted identifying the correlation matrices of Pearson and Spearman, considering the possible 75 incubation period of the disease. The results exclude a strong direct correlation between PM in the air and the diffusion 76 rate of CoViD-19. Further developments are necessary for a better comprehension of the influence of atmospheric 77 pollution parameters on the rapidity of spread of the virus SARS-CoV-2, since a synergistic action with other factors, 78 such as meteorological factors, could not be excluded. 79 Keywords: PM10; PM2.5; SARS-CoV-2; doubling time; virus; air quality 80 81 3 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128215; this version posted June 12, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 82 1. Introduction 83 Northern Italy, which has been the most affected area by coronavirus disease (CoViD-19) (INCP, 2020), is also the 84 portion of the Country with the highest amount of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) often exceeding the legislative 85 limit. Moreover, together with Poland and Bulgaria, Northern Italy has the worst air quality in Europe in terms of PM 86 (EEA, 2019, 2018, 2017). 87 PM is a mixture of solid and liquid particles in the air. Based on its size, PM can be classified into three categories: 88 coarse (2.5–10μm), fine (<2.5μm), and ultrafine (<0.1μm) (Ciencewicki and Jaspers, 2007). Several studies confirmed a 89 strong correlation between air particulate pollution and the increase of respiratory diseases (Cruz-Sanchez et al., 2013; 90 Horne et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2016; Zhou et al., 2015). 91 The Italian Society of Environmental Medicine (SIMA) (SIMA, 2020) supposed for the first time a possible correlation 92 between the great diffusion of CoViD-19 in Northern Italy and the high concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 considering 93 the atmospheric particulate matter as a vector that could transport SARS-CoV-2 (Setti et al., 2020b, 2020a). Several 94 other authors supposed that PM could acts as a support for novel SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), allowing the 95 spread and the transport even for significant distances. As reported in these studies, PM may represent a substrate that 96 allows the virus to remain in the air in a contagious form for hours or days, promoting its diffusion (Sanità di Toppi et 97 al., 2020; SIMA, 2020). Many studies have been carried out on the association between the concentration of different 98 air pollutants (i.e. PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2, and O3) in the air and the proliferation and aggressiveness of the novel 99 coronavirus infection (Coccia, 2020; Liu et al., 2020; Yari and Moshammer, 2020; Zhu et al., 2020). 100 This study aims to explore the relationship between ambient air pollutants PM10 and PM2.5 and the rapidity of the spread 101 of the infection caused by CoViD-19 in Northern Italy, where air pollutants concentration is higher than in the rest of 102 Italy. Data on particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) were analysed and, considering an incubation time of 10 - 15 d, were 103 compared with the CoViD-19 rapidity of spread, evaluated using the doubling time (Td), in 41 cities of Northern Italy. 104 In order to compare air quality data with epidemiological data, a statistical analysis was conducted. 105 106 2. Methods 107 2.1. Area of the study 108 Considering that CoViD-19 has broken out in Northern Italy, this part of the Country has been selected in order to 109 detect a possible correlation between epidemic spread and PM in air. According to the most recent available data 110 (1.1.2020), the area of the study was larger than 100,000 km2 (ISTAT, 2020a) and divided in 41 provinces in seven 4 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128215; this version posted June 12, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. 111 different Regions (Piedmont, Valle d’Aosta, Lombardy, Liguria, Veneto, Trentino, and Emilia Romagna). The analysis 112 has been applied on the capital of each province, totally accounting for around 25.8 million of inhabitants (ISTAT, 113 2020b). In Fig. 1, the map of the selected provinces and the location of capital cities are reported. 114 FIGURE 1 115 2.2 Epidemiological data collection and processing 116 The epidemiological evolution of the new SARS-CoV-2 cases was not available at city-level. Therefore, the 117 epidemiological data referred to each single province, provided by the Italian National Civil Protection (INCP, 2020), 118 were considered. In order to compare the spread of the CoViD-2019, the new cases in the selected periods of CoViD-19 119 outbreak were fitted with exponential curve (Eq. 1) aiming to quantify the Td (Eq. 2): 120 121 122 Where I represents the number of new infections, and t is the time from the first proclaimed case in the province [d]. 123 2.3. Particulate matter data collection and processing 124 The particulate matter, with a diameter of <10 μm (PM10) and 2.5 μm (PM2.5), data for all cities, were collected from the 125 local environmental protection agencies (APPA Trento, 2020; ARPA Emilia-Romagna, 2020; ARPA Liguria, 2020; 126 ARPA Lombardia, 2020; ARPA Piemonte, 2020; ARPA Valle d’Aosta, 2020; ARPA Veneto, 2020).
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