MAPPING THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE REACH, IMPLICATIONS, CONSEQUENCES EDITORS Harsh V Pant and Premesha Saha Introduction © 2021 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from ORF. Attribution: Harsh V Pant and Premesha Saha (Editors), Mapping the Belt and Road Initiative: Reach, Implications, Consequences, February 2021, Observer Research Foundation. Observer Research Foundation 20 Rouse Avenue, Institutional Area New Delhi 110002 India [email protected] www.orfonline.org ORF provides non-partisan, independent analyses and inputs on matters of security, strategy, economy, 2 development, energy and global governance to diverse decision makers (governments, business communities, academia and civil society). ORF’s mandate is to conduct in-depth research, provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrow’s thought leaders today. Editing and Production: Vinia Datinguinoo Mukherjee Design and layout: Rahil Miya Shaikh ISBN: 978-93-90494-37-8 Contents Introduction INTRODUCTION 5 Harsh V Pant and Premesha Saha SECTION 1 PIVOTAL GEOGRAPHIES: PROJECTS, PROGRESS, AND THE CHALLENGES SOUTH ASIA CPEC: Building a Path For 9 Pakistan’s Financial Ruin Kriti M Shah BRI & Afghanistan: Systemic Challenges Impede 13 Integration Shubhangi Pandey Bangladesh: Riding the BRI Tide 20 Joyeeta Bhattacharjee The BRI Quandary in Nepal and Sri Lanka 24 Sohini Nayak SOUTHEAST ASIA AND OCEANIA 3 Myanmar and Thailand: A Cautious Approach to the BRI 31 K. Yhome Southeast Asia: A Key Link to BRI’s Maritime Road 38 Premesha Saha Polemic Intersections: The BRI in Australia, New Zealand, 45 and the Pacific Island Countries Pratnashree Basu MIDDLE EAST Walking the Geopolitical Trapeze Wire 51 Kabir Taneja AFRICA Counting the Risks and Rewards of the BRI 56 Abhishek Mishra CENTRAL ASIA China Revives its Ancient Silk Route 63 Ayjaz Wani LATIN AMERICA The ‘Bright Spark’ for BRI? 70 Anant Singh Mann and Dipayan Pal Contents Introduction SECTION 2 GLOBAL POWERS AND THEIR RESPONSES TO THE BRI Trump’s Response to the BRI: Jettisoning 78 the ‘America First’ Approach Kashish Parpiani Russia’s Guarded Optimism 85 Nivedita Kapoor Japan’s Response: From Abe to Suga 91 Vindu Mai Chotani The EU’s View on the BRI 97 Sabrina Korreck SECTION 3 OTHER IMPLICATIONS AND ONGOING DEBATES China Challenges Western-led Global 103 Economic Governance Aarshi Tirkey The BRI: A White-Elephant in the Making? 110 Ritika Passi 4 Unlocking the Security Dynamics of BRI 116 Kartik Bommakanti and Angad Singh MSR: The Waters Under China’s Belt 120 Gayathri Iyer The ‘Indo-Pacific’ Counter-Narrative 125 Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury Behind the Curtains of the Health Silk Road 131 Sohini Bose ABOUT THE AUTHORS 137 INTRODUCTION Harsh V Pant and Premesha Saha hina’s Belt and Road Initiative At the time of publishing this report, (BRI), launched in 2013 by more than 60 countries—home to nothing President Xi Jinping during less than two-thirds of the world’s official visits to Kazakhstan population—have signed on to BRI projects, Cand Indonesia, is among the world’s most or else have indicated an interest. Morgan ambitious infrastructure projects ever Stanley has predicted that China’s overall conceived. It is a union of development and expenses over the entire duration of investment initiatives that would stretch the BRI could reach $1.2–1.3 trillion by from East Asia to Europe, and in the process 2027. Two years after Xi announced the significantly expand China’s economic and initiative, three coordinating government political influence in these massive regions. agencies (the National Development and The plan, initially named ‘One Belt, One Reform Commission, the Ministry of Road’, is two-pronged: the overland Silk Road Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Economic Belt, and the Maritime Silk Road. Commerce) issued in 2015 the first official On land, Beijing aims to connect the country’s blueprint on what was then still called underdeveloped hinterland to Europe through OBOR, the ‘Vision and Actions on Jointly Central Asia; the maritime component will Building Silk Road Economic Belt and build ports and railways to connect the fast- 21st Century Maritime Silk Road’. growing Southeast Asian region to China’s southern provinces. Introduction Figure 1: China’s New Silk Road Source: NBC News2 The infrastructure development plan aims Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’; and to the to create a vast network of railways, energy growing salience of the Indo-Pacific maritime 6 pipelines, highways, and some 50 special geography as well. In recent years, the Indo- economic zones—all of which would expand Pacific has become central to the security and the international use of Chinese currency, foreign policies of countries like the US, Japan, the Renminbi and, thus declared Xi, “break Australia, India, the UK, France, Germany, the bottleneck in Asian connectivity.” Viewed and the countries of ASEAN. China is working from the geopolitical lens, Beijing’s aim, to strengthen global economic links to its through the BRI, is to strengthen its economic western regions, which historically have been leadership while gaining political leverage neglected. Promoting economic development over its neighbours and asserting its presence in the western province of Xinjiang, where on the global stage. In other words, China’s separatist violence has been escalating, is BRI stands on the pillars of both geopolitical a priority. So is securing long-term energy and economic motivations. It runs parallel to supplies from Central Asia and the Middle China’s growing assertiveness in its bilateral East. relations, as seen in its increasingly hawkish actions in its immediate region and beyond. At China has captured the world’s attention the same time, trade relations with the United by demonstrating the urgency of boosting States have faced setbacks, thereby pressuring infrastructure development and transnational the Chinese government to find new markets connectivity as the next stage of economic for its commodities. globalisation. Other global powers have been forced to respond to China with their own The BRI, however, is not only an initiative; it infrastructure and connectivity plans; the is a response: for one, to former US President demand is high, and China is the first power Introduction to try to fill it. As it does so, Beijing appears to finance institution, the US International be falling into similar patterns of conflict. Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC) to compete with the AIIB. And Indeed, the challenges are growing. The story the US and Australia have joined Japan in of Sri Lanka, for example, being saddled by announcing plans through the Blue Dot the burden of unsustainable debt to China is Network for an alternative to BRI. well-documented. In 2018, former Malaysian President Mahathir Mohamad suspended This monograph offers definitive analyses work on certain BRI ventures in his country of multiple aspects of the BRI, authored by over concerns of mounting debts to China. For research scholars of the Strategic Studies similar reasons, the government of Myanmar Programme of ORF. The first section, ‘Pivotal has significantly scaled down the Kyaukpyu Geographies’, outlines the progress so far port project. In Pakistan, too, the voices of projects under the BRI in the regions of against the conditionalities tied to Chinese South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, Africa, activities and loans have grown louder. West Asia, Central Asia and Latin America, India, for its part, had taken an early stance and the challenges they face. The second against the BRI and refused to participate section, ‘Global Powers and their Responses in the inaugural Belt and Road Forum in to the BRI’, analyses the responses of countries 2017. It had long emphasised that connectivity and regions like the United States, Japan, projects should respect the participating European Union and Russia. The chapters country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, in the last section offer various lenses to view 7 not create unsustainable debt burden, the BRI against: legal, defence and security, involve transparent accounting, and create and financial viability. Evolving debates on benefits for the local economy. the Maritime Silk Road are discussed in this section as well, along with the Health Silk It is clear that China’s ambitions to recreate Road, and the emergence of the Indo-Pacific its ancient Silk Route—massive as they are construct as a counter-narrative to the BRI. and couched in grand rhetoric of development and connectivity—are not This monograph offers an in-depth analysis of going to remain unchallenged. China’s the BRI—perhaps the most widely contested success will depend on its ability to move narrative of this scale in contemporary beyond the bilateral framework and allow global geopolitics. It aims to generate wider a truly multilateral vision for the project to discussions on the subject, in India and evolve. Otherwise, the People’s Republic can beyond. In this era of global politics when expect to contend with stronger opposition Chinese belligerence is heightening alongside from more countries other than India. its expanding global footprint, India and the world must recognise how the BRI is aiming Japan, for instance, along with India have to reshape the global order in fundamental unveiled their own development cooperation ways. Such an understanding can serve as with third countries under the banner of an