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The Belt and Road Initiative: an Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity

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The Belt and Road Initiative: an Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity Yvonne Zhou, Alex Xie, Feng Lu, and Kevin Zhang March 2018 Contents 1. Analysis of the BRI’s Strategic Significance and Investment Models 1 1.1 Fundamental Evolution of the BRI: from a Foreign and Economic Policy Program Focusing on Infrastructure Projects, to a China-initiated Inclusive Global Platform for Economic Cooperation 1 1.2 Achievements and Status: Extensive Coverage, Inclusiveness and Symbiotic Development 2 1.3 An Inclusive and Symbiotic Model 3 1.4 Analysis of Chinese Enterprises’ Investments in BRI Countries: Models and Experience 5 2. Challenges Faced by the BRI and Suggestions for Its Development 12 2.1 Improve the Government’s Complementary Strategic Measures 12 2.2 Conquer Uncertainties in the Investment Environment of BRI Countries 13 2.3 Upgrade Models of Corporate Operations and Management 13 2.4 Suggestions for the Government 14 2.5 Suggestions for Enterprises Expanding Globally 15 The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity 1. Analysis of the BRI’s Strategic Significance and Investment Models 1.1 Fundamental Evolution of the BRI: from a Foreign and Economic Policy Program Focusing on Infrastructure Projects, to a China-initiated Inclusive Global Platform for Economic Cooperation During his state visit to Kazakhstan in September 2013 and to Indonesia a month later, President Xi Jinping proposed jointly building a “Silk Road Economic Belt” and a “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, now officially known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since then, the BRI has become a key component of China’s economic and diplomatic efforts. Building on existing bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanisms and plat- forms, China is seeking to develop economic partnerships with its neighbors through this initiative. In the early days of the BRI, China focused on helping participating countries improve their transportation, industrial structure and productivity, largely through investing in and building infrastructure and energy projects. So far, a number of major projects have been successfully completed, including the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya and the Port of Piraeus in Greek, which have quickly boosted local economies and are gradually turning into regional economic powerhouses. In the wake of the financial crisis in 2008, changing global economic landscape, and emerging challenges such as the widening wealth gap, terrorism, environmental issues and religious conflicts, have made China’s traditional models of economic cooperation with other developing countries outdated. China advocated consultation, joint develop- March 2018 The Boston Consulting Group · China Development Research Foundation 2 The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity Exhibit 1. Features of the BRI Cooperation Frameor Platform Projects cover diverse Cooperation under the range of areas, not just BRI has been expanded infrastructure and to cover not only China’s energy. More private ore neighboring countries capital and enterprises Broader but also other countries participating in the BRI. reasonable coverage in Asia, Africa and planning Europe. All the countries around the world are welcomed to engage in the BRI. China has turned its attention to promoting the economic, social, environmental and China’s ministries and More unified More emphasis religious development of national commissions on global BRI countries. It has also are developing a unified coordination proposed building a plan to implement the responsibilities community with a BRI, 15 of them have shared future, to further published action plans advance the implemen- and major work for 2018. tation of the BRI. ment and equitable benefit-sharing among all participants within the BRI framework. The initiative has gradually evolved into a China-initiated inclusive economic cooperation platform that underscores China’s responsibilities as a world power. Investment projects are being implemented based on sound planning and better ministerial-level coordina- tion in a wider range of industries. (See Exhibit 1.) 1.2 Achievements and Status: Extensive Coverage, Inclusiveness and Symbiotic Development The BRI currently includes more than 100 countries and international organizations, and investments within its framework are being made to six sub-regions: Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and West Asia and North Africa. As of June 2017, over USD 130 billion worth of direct investments and con- tracted projects had materialized, and six major economic corridors had been formed: the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, the New Asia-Europe Continental Economic Corridor, the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor, the Bangladesh-China-In- dia-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Chi- na-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor. These corridors, along with six railways and a number of ports, have increased economic connectivity between the BRI countries. (See Exhibit 2.) The Boston Consulting Group · China Development Research Foundation March 2018 The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity 3 Exhibit 2. A Map of the Six Economic Corridors, Six Railays and Multiple Ports Lining BRI Countries GP: US billion Investment: S billion ontract value: S billion Central and Eastern Europe 1 GP: US trillion GP: US trillion 2 Investment: S billion Investment: S billion ontract value: S billion Central Asia ontract value: S billion ortheast Asia 3 GP: US trillion estern Asia and orth Africa 4 Investment: S billion GP: US trillion ontract value: S billion Investment: S billion South Asia ontract value: S billion 5 Southeast Asia 6 GP: US trillion Investment: S billion ontract value: S billion 5 25 50 100 2505001000 conomic 1 hinaonoliaRussia conomic orridor Population density (per square kilometer) corridors 2 e urasian and Bride 3 hinaentral and est Asia conomic orridor 4 BanladeshhinaIndiayanmar conomic orridor 5 hinaPaistan conomic orridor 6 hinaIndohina Peninsula conomic orridor aritime corridors ote: The amount of investment includes direct investment and the total value of construction contracts under the BRI. Chinese investments in BRI countries is becoming increasingly diverse. (See Exhibit 3.) In terms of industries, 70% of the BRI projects were concentrated in the infrastructure and energy sectors between 2013 and 2016. Since 2017, the proportion of investments in infrastructure and energy projects has decreased to about 40%, while investment in man- ufacturing, service and technological projects has increased to about 60%. The focus of investments has shifted from infrastructure and energy projects to providing support to individual industrial projects, and developing comprehensive industrial parks. 1.3 An Inclusive and Symbiotic Model The BRI covers some of the world’s most densely populated regions with complex social structures. No development model dominated by a single country will be able to address the myriad challenges arising from the implementation of the initiative. An inclusive and symbiotic model with the characteristics described below must be adopted to move the BRI forward. (See Exhibit 4.) March 2018 The Boston Consulting Group · China Development Research Foundation 4 The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity Exhibit 3. Chinese Investments in BRI Countries Diverse investment structure Significant projects emerging in various industries Total 100% Infrastructure 478 • China-Kazakhstan Crude Oil Pipeline and energy 39% • Hungary-Serbia Railway • Aktau Asphalt Plant • Port of Piraeus • China-Kazakhstan Agricultural Manufacturing 211 17% • Great Stone Innovation Park urope entral and astern urope Retail 152 12% 2 3 1 3 entral Asia 1 ortheast Asia Information estern Asia and 8 9 2 services 136 11% orth Arica 2 • Melaka Gateway South Asia Southeast Asia 28 • Kuantan Industrial Real estate 111 9% 5 Park • Addis Ababa– 2 19 Djibouti Railway 2 • Huaxin Cement 25 28 • Al-Hamrawayn Arica Finance 108 9% • Gwadar Port 7 Thermal Power 25 Support services Plant 1 • Port Qasim Coal-Fired for energy 26 2% • China-Oman 1 Power Plant industry Industrial Park • India TBEA Park Others 11% Industry Parks Infrastructure and energy Exhibit 4. Four Elements of the Inclusive and Symbiotic Cooperation Model Under the BRI Brinin toether actors An inclusive iversity o actors ith complementary and symbiotic Various kinds of actors, strenths model among which numerous Actors have complementary types of relations are roles, positioning and created functions onnected transport hubs Coordinated benefit-sharing Hubs are distributed among Group interest of actors has been actors to ensure smooth and clearly defined and can be accurate exchange of achieved without harming their materials and information individual interests The Boston Consulting Group · China Development Research Foundation March 2018 The Belt and Road Initiative: An Inclusive and Symbiotic Approach to Shared Global Prosperity 5 Bringing together actors with complementary strengths: BRI countries are highly diverse (in term of their regions, political systems, religions, economic development status, resources, etc.), and each has a unique role to play in building greater regional prosperity. Connected transport hubs: An infrastructure
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