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Submission Into the 2018 Victorian State Election

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Submission Into the 2018 Victorian State Election EMC Submission No. 11 Received 9 July 2019 Submission into the 2018 Victorian State Election Author: Jeff Waddell Email: Disclaimer: Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data provided in this analysis, there may be unintended instances of calculation or raw data errors. As the author, I make no attempt to intentionally mislead the reader, nor for the reader to draw incorrect conclusions should any error of calculation be found in this analysis. I have performed all calculations in good faith, assuming my work to be 100% correct. The opinions stated herein are mine; and are based on statistical evidence and additional information which is all freely available on the VEC website: https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Default.html Declaration of interest: The author is a member of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation political party and was the One Nation candidate for the Division of Monash at the May 2019 Federal Election. To the Electoral Matters Committee As a keen political statistician, I would like to raise some issues relating to not only the 2018 State Election, but also matters that indirectly relate to the State Election, such as electoral redivisions and the composition and election of both Houses of State Parliament. Matters relating directly to the 2018 State Election Pre-poll Vote analysis – why the discrepancies? The table below, continuing onto the next page, notes the discrepancies between the number of pre-poll votes recorded and the number of early votes counted by District which were incorporated into the State Election results. For reasons still unknown, there appear to be a number of glaring discrepancies between both sets of figures, with some 38 of the 88 Districts counting more early votes than were recorded for that District prior to Polling Day. The shortfalls in early votes processed did not appear to be reflected in the final counts. The District with the greatest shortfall – Carrum – still recorded a 90.38% turnout which is in line with the State Average. The VEC should be able to explain these discrepancies, but nothing has been published on their website to address this matter. Early Votes Early Votes Counted Difference Counted Difference Pre- (Rechecked Pre- (Rechecked District polled Results) Shortfall Surplus District polled Results) Shortfall Surplus Albert Park 16,600 16,688 88 Macedon 11,996 11,681 -315 Altona 20,345 20,348 3 Malvern 13,787 13,721 -66 Bass 25,845 26,194 349 Melbourne 16,198 16,413 215 Bayswater 13,711 13,676 -35 Melton 18,514 18,433 -81 Bellarine 15,808 15,391 -417 Mildura 16,004 16,909 905 Benambra 19,816 18,651 -1,165 Mill Park 18,199 18,272 73 Bendigo East 19,155 14,962 -4,193 Monbulk 10,128 10,071 -57 Bendigo West 15,297 13,575 -1,722 Mordialloc 16,275 16,281 6 Bentleigh 12,089 12,071 -18 Mornington 19,977 20,077 100 Box Hill 11,063 11,098 35 Morwell 19,524 19,484 -40 Brighton 12,715 12,641 -74 Mount Waverley 11,634 11,671 37 Broadmeadows 9,629 9,490 -139 Mulgrave 11,474 11,560 86 Brunswick 18,374 18,426 52 Murray Plains 15,047 14,823 -224 Bulleen 12,931 12,934 3 Narracan 17,980 18,051 71 Bundoora 14,143 14,103 -40 Narre Warren North 12,579 12,339 -240 Buninyong 15,943 15,701 -242 Narre Warren South 17,627 15,432 -2,195 Burwood 12,914 12,843 -71 Nepean 19,725 19,717 -8 Carrum 17,246 11,658 -5,588 Niddrie 15,457 15,372 -85 Caulfield 14,594 12,712 -1,882 Northcote 15,311 15,335 24 Clarinda 12,696 12,593 -103 Oakleigh 12,715 12,487 -228 Cranbourne 23,147 23,133 -14 Ovens Valley 20,403 20,804 401 Croydon 14,788 14,852 64 Pascoe Vale 17,666 17,442 -224 Dandenong 12,956 13,022 66 Polwarth 11,674 11,860 186 Eildon 7,965 7,974 9 Prahran 16,153 16,166 13 Eltham 16,711 16,563 -148 Preston 14,273 14,261 -12 Essendon 18,777 17,847 -930 Richmond 16,811 16,645 -166 Euroa 11,113 11,135 22 Ringwood 11,770 11,783 13 Evelyn 12,796 12,722 -74 Ripon 9,059 9,090 31 Ferntree Gully 14,726 14,794 68 Rowville 14,035 14,026 -9 Footscray 21,271 21,315 44 Sandringham 14,366 14,402 36 Forest Hill 11,205 11,245 40 Shepparton 16,108 16,097 -11 Frankston 13,094 13,112 18 South Barwon 22,972 23,025 53 Geelong 15,892 15,621 -271 South-West Coast 23,000 23,385 385 Gembrook 15,902 16,066 164 St Albans 22,248 22,242 -6 Gippsland East 15,997 15,974 -23 Sunbury 17,356 17,328 -28 Gippsland South 16,059 16,032 -27 Sydenham 19,556 20,758 1,202 Hastings 16,724 15,809 -915 Tarneit 20,200 20,192 -8 Hawthorn 12,151 12,059 -92 Thomastown 11,750 11,688 -62 Ivanhoe 16,124 16,177 53 Warrandyte 13,172 13,259 87 Kew 13,018 13,815 797 Wendouree 18,734 19,476 742 Keysborough 14,581 14,487 -94 Werribee 20,221 20,164 -57 Kororoit 21,847 21,736 -111 Williamstown 13,802 13,773 -29 Lara 15,409 13,287 -2,122 Yan Yean 18,344 18,376 32 Lowan 15,304 14,344 -960 Yuroke 18,989 18,943 -46 Totals 1,391,284 1,372,190 -25,667 6,573 Overall Difference -19,094 With an increase in the number of electors voting at Early Voting Centres (EVC’s), the results from these centres should be published by individual Early Voting Centre rather than all grouped together as 1 entry per District as was done for the 2018 State Election. Separated information would have been useful when calculating 2CP margins after new electoral boundaries are drawn at the 2020-21 redivision. Proposal: That for future elections, the VEC treat and publish voting information for each EVC as a separate entity; the same way the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) currently treats PPVC’s at Federal Elections. Informal Vote analysis Despite fewer candidates and therefore a lower chance of sequencing errors when filling in ballot papers in many Districts, the informal vote number and percentage rose for the Lower House in 2018. Election Total Votes Informal Votes Informal % 2014 (LH) 3,540,545 184,838 5.22% 2018 (LH) 3,732,066 217,592 5.83% 2018 (UH) 3,731,191 147,713 3.96% It is concerning that nearly 1 in 17 votes were excluded from the count. Deeper analysis of these figures found that in 25 out of 88 Districts, the number of informal votes was greater than the successful candidate’s winning margin. If the intention of a democracy is to ensure that as many people as possible can have their voices heard at the Ballot Box; it is therefore incumbent upon “The System” to allow that to occur. Using a voting system that is designed to exclude imperfect or incomplete ballot papers rather than include them, seems counter-intuitive to that intention. Optional Preferential Voting (OPV) has been shown to reduce the informal vote, making more votes count and therefore giving any elected government a greater legitimacy. In fact, when comparing Upper and Lower House informal percentages at the 2018 State Election, this argument is already proven, with almost 70,000 more votes counting in the Upper House than in the Lower House. In NSW, they have been using OPV for voting in their Lower House for some time. The informal voting percentage at the previous NSW State Election held on the 23rd of March this year was just 3.46%. That’s almost 2.4% more votes counting in NSW than in Victoria. The previous Queensland Parliament voted to re-introduce Compulsory Preferential Voting (CPV) and as a consequence saw the informal vote rise from 2.11% in 2015 to 4.34% in 2017. Across the border in the NT, the previous Territory Government voted to abandon CPV and replace it with OPV. The reduction in the informal vote in the NT between 2012 and 2016 Territory Elections justified this change, with the informal rate falling from 3.23% in 2012 to just 2% in 2016 despite an increased number of candidates contesting in 2016. The NTEC duly highlighted the significant reduction in the informal vote – especially in aboriginal communities. Proposal: The Electoral Matters Committee recommends the relevant legislation is amended to permit OPV for the Lower House at the 2022 State Election with the intention of reducing the informal vote. 2CP V. DOP – why the difference? At the 2018 State Election, 36 Districts went to full DOP counts to determine the winner. What was interesting to note was the discrepancy between the result based on DOP versus the result based on 2CP by voting centre. The Table below and over the following 2 pages lists the Districts that the VEC published both full DOP’s and 2CP by voting centre counts and the discrepancies between both. 2018 Votes 2CP Vote Count 2CP Vote % District Count type ALP Green Lib Ind. ALP Green Lib Ind. Albert Park 2CP by Voting Centre 25,186 14,727 63.10% 36.90% Albert Park DOP 25,161 14,697 63.13% 36.87% Albert Park Change 2CP - DOP -25 -30 0.02% -0.02% Bass 2CP by Voting Centre 25,827 24,012 51.82% 48.18% Bass DOP 25,982 23,607 52.39% 47.61% Bass Change 2CP - DOP 155 -405 0.57% -0.57% Bayswater 2CP by Voting Centre 19,208 18,946 50.34% 49.66% Bayswater DOP 19,211 18,915 50.39% 49.61% Bayswater Change 2CP - DOP 3 -31 0.04% -0.04% Benambra 2CP by Voting Centre 17,013 24,393 41.09% 58.91% Benambra DOP 21,732 19,703 52.45% 47.55% Benambra Change 2CP - DOP -17,013 -2,661 19,703 -41.09% -6.46% 47.55% Box Hill 2CP by Voting Centre 19,892 18,414 51.93% 48.07% Box Hill DOP 19,982 18,369 52.10% 47.90% Box Hill Change 2CP - DOP 90 -45 0.17% -0.17% Brighton 2CP by Voting Centre 18,940 19,827 48.86% 51.14% Brighton DOP 18,947 19,812 48.88% 51.12% Brighton Change 2CP - DOP 7 -15 0.03% -0.03% Brunswick 2CP by Voting Centre 21,586 22,113 49.40% 50.60% Brunswick DOP 21,712 22,215 49.43% 50.57% Brunswick Change 2CP - DOP 126 102 0.03% -0.03% Burwood 2CP by Voting Centre 20,132 17,650 53.28% 46.72% Burwood DOP 20,132 17,635 53.31% 46.69% Burwood Change 2CP - DOP 0 -15 0.02% -0.02% Caulfield 2CP by Voting Centre 18,859 19,269 49.46% 50.54% Caulfield DOP 18,958 19,162 49.73% 50.27% Caulfield Change 2CP - DOP 99 -107 0.27% -0.27% Croydon 2CP by Voting Centre 18,035 19,718 47.77% 52.23% Croydon DOP 18,075 19,671 47.89% 52.11% Croydon Change 2CP - DOP 40 -47 0.11% -0.11% Eltham 2CP by Voting Centre 23,029 17,257 57.16% 42.84% Eltham DOP 23,802 16,490 59.07% 40.93% Eltham Change 2CP - DOP 773 -767 1.91% -1.91% Essendon 2CP by Voting Centre 27,320 14,198 65.80% 34.20% Essendon DOP 27,315 14,157 65.86% 34.14% Essendon Change 2CP - DOP -5 -41 0.06% -0.06% 2018 Votes 2CP Vote Count 2CP Vote % District Count type ALP Green Lib Nat Ind.
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