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Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 30 – 34

12th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing Environmental Safety of the Region: New Approach to Assessment

Vladimir V. Glinskiya,*, Lyudmila K. Sergaa, Mariya S. Khvana

aNovosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, , Russian Federation

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-913-396-7617; fax: +7-383-224-5910. E-mail address: [email protected]

Abstract

The ecology becomes a limiting factor for the sustainable development of the country in general, as well as its certain regions. The issue of assessment of the level of ecological safety of territories arises. The article considers the assessment technique of the composite index of Environmental Safety by aggregation of three indicators reflecting social and economic development, ecological conditions and human capacity of the region. The aggregation is offered to be carried out by means of the method of multivariate average. Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service is used for the calculation of indicators. Original aggregate is divided into two or three groups by each indicator and composite index of environmental safety of the region. It makes it possible to define a place of the region in space of indicators, to identify type of the studied territory by the level of environmental safety and to develop effective strategies of ecological safety management both for a separate territorial unit and for homogeneous groups. The suggested methodology makes it possible to obtain rather adequate estimates for main territorial levels of management - municipal, subjective, district. © 20142015 TheThe Authors.Authors. PublishedPublished by by Elsevier Elsevier B.V. B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license P(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/eer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology). and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin. Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin. Keywords: Environmental Safety; Region; Assessment; Environmental Sustainability; Typology; Integrated Indicator.

Introduction statisticians… More than two hundred scientific articles in reviewed magazines have been published only over the last Ecological safety is an essential part of national security of years in , tens theses on this topic have been defended. the state, a significant element of its participation in the The analysis of the research regarding the assessment of level system of international security. The ecological situation in of ecological safety makes it possible to group authors by two the Russian Federation in its entirety is adverse, lying outside main concepts: technogenic and biospheric. critical level with downtrends in certain territories. As a result, The technogenic concept - solution of environmental there is no growth of indicators of health of population or life problems consists in an environmental pollution assessment, expectancy of population; the gap in life expectancy of men rationing of admissible pollution of various environments, and women is increasing, child and infant mortality is still creation of clearing systems and resource-saving technologies. high. The ecology becomes a limiting factor for the This concept covers a wide range of shades, starting with a sustainable development of the country in general, as well as complete negation of existence of ecological danger, except its certain regions. The issue of assessment of the level of local cases, and finishing with appeals for a sustainable ecological safety of territories arises. development which is understood as satisfaction of requirements of the present and future generations of people, Review of research on issues of measurements of level of i.e. actually comes down to combination of environment with ecological safety economic growth and natural growth of the population [1, 2, 3]. Ecological safety affects scientific interests of researchers The biospheric concept represents empirical generalization of the most different specialties: biologists, physicists, of all accumulated experimental material on the basis of ecologists, demographers, economists, mathematicians, known laws of physics and biology. It is directed on definition

2212-8271 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin. doi: 10.1016/j.procir.2014.08.017 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 30 – 34 31 of area of stability of any ecosystem that makes it possible to by the organizations which are situated in the territory of determine the admissible disturbance value – ecosystem load, municipality (excluding small business), thousand rubles; to define thresholds of stability of concrete ecological systems number of unprofitable organizations, units; specific weight of [1, 2, 3]. A number of methods and criteria of assessment of profitable organizations, percent; receivables, thousand rubles; ecological safety were formed within these concepts [see in accounts payable, thousand rubles; commissioning of houses detail 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. In particular, the following may be on municipality territories, square meter of total area; number noted: offered in [9] diversity index of ecosystems which is of issued construction licenses, units; number of municipal based on the use of remote methods for biodiversity definition bodies of protection of public order, units; number of by species composition; the integrated indicator "ecological voluntary formations of the population regarding protection of safety of the region" calculated for Volga federal district. The a public order, units. ideology of the factorial analysis forms the basis of creation of Block 2. The ecological: current costs of environmental this indicator. This methodology assumes that ecological protection, thousand rubles; amount of objects with stationary safety of the region can be conditionally subdivided into two sources of emissions, units; polluting substances from internal blocks: human impact on environment and medical- stationary sources – total, one thousand tons; number of demographic characteristics of the region. Each block is enterprises for utilization and processing of household and presented by a set of the most informative selected indicators, industrial waste, units; cultivated areas of crops in farms of all used for carrying out further calculations; rating of subjects of categories, hectare. Volga federal district is carried out on the results of Block 3. Human capacity: general coefficient of birth rate, calculations [7]; the methodology of ranging of objects by the permille; general mortality rate, permille; number of children level of ecological safety. visiting preschool educational organizations, for the end of Criteria of ecological safety form the basis of this fiscal year, people; number of trainees in the general education methodology: criterion of assessment of level of stability of organizations (without evening (shift) general education environment, criterion of assessment of level of autoregulation organizations), people; number of engaged in children's and of environment, criterion of assessment of level of influence youth sports schools, people [11]. of projected economic entity on population health, criterion of The similar system can be constructed in several territorial assessment of level of environmental friendliness of technical sections: by municipalities of all subjects of the Russian and technological solutions of economic entity, criterion of Federation (RF), by territorial subjects of the Russian assessment of a level of quality of environment in target area Federation, by the federal districts of the Russian Federation, [6]; classification of methods of ensuring the ecological indicators are given for 2008-2012. safety, offered by T.A. Horuzhaya [3]. Practically all modern methodologies and algorithms have one thing in common - Methodology and tools their individual character: the solution of a private task, use of expert estimates, labor input of obtaining necessary The assessment of ecological safety of the region is based information, assessment of one component of ecological on three spheres of activity of society: ecological conditions, safety – environment. Therefore, results of such research are, human capacity and social and economic development of the as a rule, incomparable, difficult to check, it is almost region. It makes it possible to calculate the composite index of impossible to repeat them on other entity. Environmental Safety, based on a complex assessment of three indicators: level of social and economic development, The system of indicators level of ecological conditions and level of human development. Official data of the Federal State Statistics Service (FSSS) Indicators and a composite index calculated in a is used as data base in the research. Formation of system of multivariate average [12, p. 64-65]. Inconsistency between indicators of municipalities across the Novosibirsk region is measurement units and their various influence on the level of realized by the qualitative analysis taking into account ecological safety are features of initial amount of data. These specifics of the observed object. A number of parameters shortcomings can be eliminated in various ways. Various meeting the requirements of availability, measurability, influence is excluded by substitution of a sign for the opposite compliance, sufficiency, complexity, reliability and one by those signs which negatively influence an integrated comparability [see in detail 10] was selected. Indicators are index. aggregated in three blocks. Indicators standardization (or rationing) procedure is Block 1. Social and economic development: number of carried out to avoid different measurement units: doctors of all specialties (excluding dentists) in healthcare norm xij (1) xij institutions, person; power of outpatient and polyclinic max xij establishments, visits per shift; number of preschool j educational institutions for the end of fiscal year, units; or number of establishments of cultural and leisure type, units;  xx x s tand ij j number of sports constructions - total, units; number of ij V j . (2) children's and youth sports schools, units; investments into fixed capital at the expense of means of the municipal budget, Here x norm - normalized value of j -th sign, which is thousand rubles; investments into the fixed capital, carried out ij possessed by i -th object, 32 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 30 – 34

Table 1. Indicators of assessment of environmental safety of Novosibirsk s tand - standardized valued of -th sign, which is xij j region for 2012. possessed by i -th object, Num- Municipalities Level of Level Level Com- ber social of of posite x j - mean value of j -th integrated index, and ecolo- human index of V j - standard deviation of j -th sign, – number of object (municipal entity), economic gical deve- envi- i develop- condi- lop- ronmen- j – number of sign. ment tions ment tal safety The method of multivariate average is noteworthy as a peculiar interpretation of multidimensional analysis and 1 Bagansky area 0.307 0.383 0.401 0.364 method of compression of information. Average relation 2 Barabinsky area 0.302 0.390 0.402 0.365 characterizing the element by some group of signs can be 3 Bolotninsky area 0.222 0.421 0.287 0.310 calculated for each element of statistical aggregate. Such 4 Vengerovsky area 0.271 0.473 0.311 0.352 conditional indicator is called multivariate average. 5 Dovolensky area 0.206 0.404 0290 0.300 Calculation of multivariate average makes it possible to make transition from multidimensional space of signs to one- 6 Zdvinsky area 0.228 0.421 0.162 0.270 dimensional. 7 Iskitimsky area 0.375 0.584 0.594 0.518 1 k 8 Karasuksky area 0.282 0.335 0.425 0.347 P x stand (3) i ¦ j 9 Kargatsky area 0.245 0.706 0.244 0.398 k 1j 10 Kolyvansky area 0.264 0.488 0.331 0.361 stand Here x j - standardized or normalized value of j -th 11 Kochenevsky area 0.347 0.524 0.570 0.480 sign, 12 Kochkovsky area 0.191 0.427 0.259 0.292 – quantity of signs, Krasnozersky k 13 0.243 0.267 0.323 0.278 i – number of municipal entity. area Kuibyshevsky 14 0.234 0.533 0.291 0.353 Multivariate average acts as an integrated index. Original area data is normalized by the maximum value in the study. In this 15 Kupinsky area 0.327 0.284 0.337 0.316 case values of multivariate average will be in the range from 0 16 Kyshtovsky area 0.251 0.554 0.186 0.330 to 1. Maslyaninsky Original aggregate is divided into groups by each indicator 17 0.238 0.463 0.487 0.396 area and composite index of Environmental safety of the 18 Moshkowsky area 0.233 0.650 0.467 0.450 municipality. It makes it possible to define a place of the municipality in space of indicators, to identify type of the 19 Novosibirsk area 0.650 0.695 0.867 0.737 studied territory by the level of ecological safety. 20 Ordynsky area 0.317 0.326 0.411 0.351 The methodology of estimation of level of ecological safety 21 Severny area 0.216 0.581 0.228 0.342 is tested on actual data on municipalities of Novosibirsk 22 Suzunsky area 0.369 0.388 0.441 0.399 region for 2012. Indicators and composite index of 23 Tatarsky area 0.379 0.482 0.392 0.418 Environmental safety are presented in table 1. 24 Toguchinsky area 0.370 0.458 0.584 0.471 25 Ubinsky area 0.199 0.458 0.143 0.267 Classification of municipal entities 26 Ust-Tarksky area 0.307 0.533 0.277 0.372 Breakdown of aggregate of municipalities into uniform 27 Chanovsky area 0.319 0.510 0.348 0.392 Cherepanovsky types is carried out in three ways: with use of typological 28 0.323 0.313 0.570 0.402 grouping; by method of cluster analysis; on the basis of area creation of a portfolio matrix. 29 Chistoozerny area 0.279 0.460 0.260 0.333 The typological grouping is executed on the basis of 30 Chulym area 0.291 0.439 0,248 0.326 estimates of the composite index of Environmental stability. 31 city of 0.795 0,400 0.691 0.629 The level of ecological safety lies in interval [0,0 – 1,0], equal Novosibirsk 32 city of 0.249 0.536 0.172 0.319 intervals are taken for breakdown. city of As a result, three groups of municipalities are obtained: low 33 0.224 0.591 0.072 0.296 level of ecological safety – [0; 0.333]; average level – [0.333; 34 city of Ob 0.123 0.590 0.140 0.284 0.667]; high level – [0.667; 1] (table 2). workers 35 settlement of 0.184 0.601 0.405 0.397 Koltsovo

Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 30 – 34 33

Table 2. Typology of municipalities of Novosibirsk region by level of environmental safety in 2012 Variation Level of Municipalities interval of environmental integrated safety (type) index 0.000–0.333 Low Bolotninsky, Dovolensky, Zdvinsky, Kochkovsky, Krasnozersky, Kupinsky, Kyshtovky, Ubinsky, Chulym areas, city of Berdsk, Iskitim and Ob

0.333–0.667 Medium Bagansky, , Vengerovsky, Iskitimsky, Karasuksky, Kargatsky, Kolyvansky, Kochenevsky, Kuibyshev, Maslyaninsky, Moshkowsky, Ordynsky, Severny, Suzunsky, Tatarsky, Toguchinsky, Ust-Tarsky, Chanovsky, Fig. 2. Typology of municipalities of Novosibirsk region in 2012 by level of Cherepanovsky, Chistoozerny areas environmental safety and workers settlement of Koltsovo and city of Novosibirsk Research of empirical distributions of municipalities by 0.667–1.000 High Novosibirsk area each indicator made it possible to set out three groups by ecological conditions and human development (low, medium, Cluster analysis. Nearest neighbor method is applied, high) (fig. 3 a,b) and two groups by social and economic distance matrix is constructed on Euclidean metric on three development (low, high) (fig. 3 с). indicators: level of social and economic development, level of Variable: Level of environmental status, Distribution: Normal ecological conditions and level of human development (fig. 1, Chi-Square test = 0,27547, df = 2 (adjusted) , p = 0,87133 table 3) [13]. 8 Tree Diagram for 35 Cases Single Linkage 7 Euclidean distances C_1 6 C_2 C_8 C_20 C_22 C_15 5 C_13 C_3 C_5 C_12 C_4 4 C_10 C_29 C_30 C_27 C_14 3 C_26 of observations No. C_23 C_16 C_32 C_21 2 C_6 C_25 C_33 C_34 1 C_17 C_9 C_18 C_35 C_7 0 C_11 C_24 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45 0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 C_28 C_19 Category (upper limits) C_31 а) by level of ecological conditions; 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5

Linkage Distance Variable: Level of human development, Distribution: Normal Fig. 1. Dendrogram of municipalities of Novosibirsk region for 2012 Chi-Square test = 2,61477, df = 1 (adjusted) , p = 0,10587 14 Portfolio analysis matrix. Three-dimensional matrix (fig. 2) is constructed; indicators of environmental safety are taken as 12 coordinates of the matrix: level of social and economic 10 development, level of ecological conditions, level of human development [14, 15]. 8

Table 3. Typology of municipalities (nearest neighbor method) 6

Cluster Type Number of Numbers of observations of No. 4 number regions municipalities (municipalities) 2 1 Low 7 1, 2, 8, 13, 15, 20, 22

0 2 Medium 26 3–7, 9-12, 14, 16-18, 21, -0,11 0,00 0,11 0,22 0,33 0,44 0,55 0,66 0,77 0,88 0,99 23-30, 32-35 Category (upper limits) b) by level of human development; 3 High 2 19, 31

34 Vladimir V. Glinskiy et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 30 – 34

Variable: Level of social and economic development, Distribution: Normal management - municipal, subjective, district; possibility of Chi-Square test = 10,05948, df = 1 (adjusted) , p = 0,00152 20 carrying out comparisons not only by territories but in

18 dynamics as well emerges; results of research make it possible

16 to develop effective strategies of management of ecological safety both for a separate territorial entity and for 14 homogeneous groups. 12

10 References

8 No. of observations of No. [1] Basic concept of environmental safety [An electronic resource] – URL: 6 http://www.murman.ru/ecology/comitet/report99/part7_2_1.html 4 [2] Environmental Safety [An electronic resource] – URL:

2 http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/506395 [3] Khoruzhaya, T.A., 2002. Assessment of environmental hazard. Book 0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 service, Moscow, p. 208. Category (upper limits) [4] Vlasova, E., 2008. Strategic directions to ensure environmental safety in c) by level of social and economic development. the region, Fundamental research, 5, Pp. 61-64. [An electronic resource] – URL:http://rae.ru/fs/?section=content&op=show_article&article_id=7780 Fig. 3. Empirical and theoretical distributions of municipalities of 959 Novosibirsk region in 2012 [5] Volovich, V., 2012. On the environmental safety of the country/ Society. Environment. Development. (Terra Humana), 1. [An electronic resource] Results of three breakdowns are tabulated in Table 4, as we – URL:http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/k-voprosu-ob-ekologicheskoy- bezopasnosti-strany can see various algorithms bring differential results, on the [6] Kozlovtceva, L., Kozlovtsev, A. Development of methodology of the other hand, percent of coincidences is rather high (54,3), at environmental safety assessment level for economic activity. [An least all three methods catch clusters cores. electronic resource] – URL: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/razrabotka- metodiki-otsenki-urovnya-ekologicheskoy-bezopasnosti-hozyaystvennoy- Table 4. Assessment of reproducibility of various breakdown algorithms of deyatelnosti municipalities of Novosibirsk region [7] Komarova, T.A., Sysoeva, E.A. Comparative analysis of integral indicators of ecological safety of the Volga Federal District [An electronic Type of Cluster Portfolio Multivariate Coincidences resource]– environ- analysis analysis average (breakdown URL:http://mrd.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/mrd/ru/publications/p mental matrix cores) ress_conference/ safety [8] Rusak, O. Modern problems of the environmental safety. [An electronic resource] – URL: http://www.asms.ru/kompet/2011/august/Rusak44.pdf Low 3–7, 9- 3-6, 10, 3, 5, 6, 12, 3, 5, 6, 12, [9] Tronin, A., 2013. Remote sensing methods in solving problems of 12, 14, 12-14, 16- 13, 16-18, 16-18, 25, 30, environmental safety. Modern problems of sensing and space, 1, Pp. 238- 16-18, 18, 21, 25, 25, 30, 32-34 32-34 245. [An electronic resource] – URL: 21, 23- 26, 28-30, http://d33.infospace.ru/d33_conf/sb2013t1/238-245.pdf 30, 32-35 32-34 [10] Glinskiy, V.V., Tret`yakova, O.V., Skripkina, T.B., 2013. Typology of Medium 1, 2, 8, 1, 2, 7-9, 1, 2, 4, 7-11, 1, 2, 8, 15, regions of the Russian Federation by health care effectiveness level, 13, 15, 11, 13, 15, 14, 15, 20- 20, 22 Questions of Statistics, 1. Pp. 57-68. 20, 22 20, 22-24, 24, 26-29, [11] Federal State Statistics Service [An electronic resource] – URL: 27 31, 35 http://www.gks.ru/ High 19, 31 19, 31 19 19 [12] Glinskiy, V., 2008. Statistical methods to support management decisions, NSUEM, Novosibirsk, p. 256. [13] Glinskiy, V., Ionin, V., 2003. Statistical analysis, Science, Siberian Agreement. Novosibirsk, p. 168. Conclusion [14] Glinskiy, V.V., Gusev, Yu.V., Zolotarenko, S.G., Serga, L.K., 2012. Portfolio analysis in typology of data: methodology and applications in support of administrative decisions, Vestnik NSUEM, 1, Pp. 25-53. Systems of assessment of level of ecological safety of [15] Serga, L.K., Nikiforova, M.I., Rumynskaya E.S., Khvan M.S., 2012. regions, applied in modern Russian practice, are characterized Applications of methods of portfolio analysis, Vestnik NSUEM, 2, Pp. by a number of significant shortcomings: high labor input, 146 -157. inconsistency and unverifiability of results.

The suggested methodology, based on use of blocks of indicators of the state statistics, makes it possible to obtain rather adequate estimates for main territorial levels of