For Future Council Executive

DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORT POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND SCRUTINY PANEL

A801, AVON GORGE, TRANSPORT MODELLING AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

REPORT BY TRANSPORTATION MANAGER

A. PURPOSE OF REPORT

The proposed A801 River Avon Gorge project involves the construction of 3.2km of new road and a bridge over the River Avon. The project is referenced in the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) and National Planning Framework 2 (NPF2) with a delivery date of 2016 or later.

A previous modelling exercise and economic assessment was carried out in 2001. This is required to be updated to inform the Transport Minister of the costs and benefits of the project with a view to it being delivered by a partnership of the council, Falkirk Council and Transport earlier than 2016.

The purpose of this report is to present to the panel, the findings of this recent modelling and economic appraisal that will then be used to form the basis of the letter to the Minister.

B. RECOMMENDATION

It is recommended, that the panel approve the report for decision at the next Council Executive with a recommendation to delegate responsibility to officers to work with SEStran and Falkirk Council to draft a letter to the Minister informing him of the findings of the updated modelling and economic appraisal work and requesting early delivery of the project.

C. SUMMARY OF IMPLICATIONS

I Council Values Focusing on our customers’ needs; being honest, open and accountable; making best use of our resources; and working in partnership.

II Policy and Legal Issues The A801 Avon Gorge is referenced in (including Strategic the STPR, NPF2, the SEStran Regional

1 Environmental Transport Strategy, the West Assessment, Equality, Local Plan, Falkirk Local Plan and the Health or Risk Local Transport Strategies for Falkirk and Assessment) .

At the detailed design stage the project will require an Environmental Impact Assessment

III Resources - (Financial, The most recent cost estimate of the Staffing and Property) project by Falkirk Council is £21.9m.

The council has previously agreed in principle a commitment of up to £3.4 million toward delivery of the project.

IV Consultations Joint working with Falkirk Council. Internal consultation with Finance has been carried out. D. TERMS OF REPORT

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

The council in partnership with Falkirk Council and SEStran has been promoting the delivery of the completion of the A801, linking the M8 and M9 motorways for many years. Both councils regard the Avon Gorge as a ‘missing link’.

In 2008, the Scottish Government published the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR), a package of 29 transport projects to be delivered from 2012 – 2022 in key locations across the country. STPR Project 20 is ‘Grangemouth Road and Rail Access Upgrades’, which includes upgrading the A801. The project is also named in the National Planning Framework 2 (NPF2) with a delivery date of 2016 or later.

The project has national, regional and local recognition. It is referenced in the STPR, NPF2, the SEStran Regional Transport Strategy, The and Structure Plan (ELSP), the West Lothian Local Plan, Falkirk Local Plan and the Local Transport Strategies for Falkirk and West Lothian.

The project has had cross-party support from both councils and local MSPs, and has also been presented in Parliament to an audience of MSPs including the Transport Minister. The presentation was received favourably.

THE PROJECT

The project comprises a total of 3.2 km of new roads carried over the River Avon by a new single span bridge. The new road will connect Wallhousemuir and Bowhouse roundabouts. The proposal is shown in Appendix 1.

2 CURRENT POSITION

The land acquisition is near completion. On 13 November 2009 Falkirk Council was awarded Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) powers to acquire the one remaining parcel of land required. Falkirk Council now has a clear route to acquire the land.

Falkirk Council estimate the cost of the project to be £21.9 million and when compared to the scope of the councils’ roads budgets, it is clear that financial support of the Government is required to deliver the project. Delivery of the project would involve a partnership of Transport Scotland, Falkirk and West Lothian Councils and SEStran.

At an NPF2 meeting at Calendar House, Falkirk on 29 October, Transport Scotland indicated that four of the 29 STPR projects have priority and that the remaining 25 projects including Project 20 are not prioritised. There will be no central government funding available before 2016.

Both councils regard the project as essential and delaying to 2016 or later would leave the A801 route in its existing form where the current problems include: x a poor road safety record; x the gorge is a bottleneck on the A-road network; x delays to all traffic include freight and buses; x unreliable journey times; x the road is liable to closure in winter; and x a lack of alternative north south routes.

TRANSPORT MODELLING AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT – PROCESS

Both councils commissioned the joint study through SEStran’s term consultant, MVA. The key tasks were to use an up to date traffic model to simulate current traffic levels, to forecast future traffic conditions and to provide a cost / benefit assessment report.

TRAFFIC MODELLING

MVA used the Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) for the assessment work. This model is the same one used to model traffic scenarios for the ELSP, the West Edinburgh Planning Framework, the Forth Replacement Crossing and the STPR. The model was updated to include changes to the road network, new development and to provide up to date traffic flows. To forecast future traffic levels, proposed development and transport projects were included.

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

Owing to a change in methodology in the design manual for roads and bridges (DMRB) the consultant used the latest evaluation method for

3 calculating economic benefits. This is significantly more pessimistic than the more traditional method used by Falkirk. This has caused the cost estimate to be higher in the study than in the current estimate provided by Falkirk Council. The Falkirk cost estimate is £21.9m and the MVA study estimate is £26.6m.

The major difference between the Falkirk and MVA cost estimates lies in the value of uncertainty or optimism bias. The Falkirk method used a cost of £17.1m plus 28% optimism bias. The MVA method used a cost of £17.4m plus 53% optimism bias. The Falkirk method is more likely to be accurate as the elements are individually weighted according to recent projects where forecast and actual costs are compared retrospectively.

The method used by MVA is correct in terms of the DMRB but takes no account of the experience of recent projects at a local level. The method used by MVA is more likely to be acceptable to Transport Scotland.

The economic benefits are calculated by applying a value of time to different user groups on the route who derive an economic benefit by having a reduction in journey time. Benefits are also estimated where there is a reduction in vehicle operating costs. As the DMRB process significantly increased the cost estimate the user benefit values were also increased.

The benefits were calculated to be £45.6m with a cost to central Government of £21.3m giving a cost benefit central government ratio of 2.14. When the full costs are applied the overall cost benefit ratio is 1.71. The benefits summary table is provided in Appendix 2.

The economic appraisal demonstrates that the project will deliver considerable benefits to the local and national economy.

WIDER BENEFITS OF THE PROJECT

The transport modelling was also used to test the implications of a closure of the Forth Road Bridge (FRB) and of the motorway network at Newbridge.

It was shown that for a closure of the FRB, there would be considerable benefits to the central Scotland road network if the Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) was not yet open.

The Forth Road Bridge (FRB) will have increasing frequency of closures over the next few years due to the maintenance requirements. It is also forecast that closures resulting from bad weather will become more frequent. The FRC is expected to open in 2016. There will be disruption from the combined effects of FRB closures for maintenance and bad weather as well as construction of the FRC.

The A801 offers an alternative connection between the M8 and M9 motorways in the event of FRB closure. There would be considerable benefits to the national road network if the Avon Gorge project were to be constructed as advanced works for the FRC. With the cost of the FRC

4 estimated at £2 billion, the Avon Gorge is modest by comparison at 1% of this.

The modelling assessment also showed that the project would be beneficial in the event of a motorway closure at Newbridge. It is accepted that the probability of closure at Newbridge is low but it would have a significant impact on the central belt.

THE NEXT STEPS

Officers from both councils will meet with MVA and SEStran to finalise the study report and will draft a joint letter for the Transport Minister. The letter will highlight the need for the project and indicate the value of early delivery and the wider benefits afforded by it.

E CONCLUSION

The study provides up to date information on traffic modelling and economic assessment. The study findings show that the project has considerable benefits for the local and national economy. The benefits can be realised early if the project is constructed as advanced works for the FRC and at a fraction of its cost.

To inform Government of the report findings, officers from both councils will take this forward and draft a joint letter to the Transport Minister requesting funding support and early delivery of this nationally important project.

F BACKGROUND REFERENCES

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/stpr

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/reports/stpr/j11260a-05.htm#a20

A801 River Avon Gorge – Transportation Modelling and Economic Assessment

Appendices / Attachments: Two

Contact Person: Billy Thompson, Transportation Policy Manager, 01506 775294 Email: [email protected]

Graeme Malcolm, Transportation Manager, County Buildings, Linlithgow

Date: 10 December 2009

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