National Climate and Water Briefing

29 March 2018

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld Welcome

Peter Gooday ABARES

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld

Welcome

Peter Gooday ABARES

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld Climate and water conditions and outlook Joel Lisonbee Bureau of Meteorology, Agriculture Program

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld Recent conditions

• Recent conditions • Evolution of climate drivers • Seasonal outlook March temperatures

Maximum Minimum temperature temperature

As at 28 March 2018 Rainfall January February March

As at 28 March 2018

Lowest Very Below Average Above Very Highest on much Average Average much on record below above record average average Rainfall: March 2018

Rainfall deciles Effective rainfall

As at 28 March 2018 March rainfall: Queensland and Northern Territory

Tropical • Queensland rainfall 1–8 March Tropical cyclone cyclone Nora • Northern Territory rainfall 8–10 March Marcus • Tropical cyclone Marcus 15–22 March Rainfall • Tropical cyclone Nora 19–26 March • 593 mm in 24 hours at Port Douglas 26 March • Queensland, highest March rainfall since 2012

Lowest on Very much Below Average Above Very much Highest on record below Average Average above record average average

Wind analysis, 27 March 2018

As at 27 March 2018 March rainfall: Queensland and Northern Territory

100 % 2018 Ross River Dam 90 93% full (28 March 2018) 80 70 60 50

40 2016 0 1 5 10 25 50 100 200 300 400 600 800 30 mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm 20 Total rainfall 2017 10 0 Feb APR Jun Aug Oct Dec Rainfall data as at 27 March 2018; water storage data as at 22 March www.townsville.qld.gov.au/water-waste-and-environment/ Fires and rapid drying

Rainfall Rainfall totals 1–28 March % of monthly mean Hay, NSW 1.6 mm 5 %

Mildura, Vic 2.2 mm 11 %

Dubbo, NSW 4 mm 7 %

Deniliquin, NSW 4.1 mm 13%

Canberra Airport 7.2 mm 11 %

Forbes, NSW 7.6 mm 14 %

At least 2 major late-season fires Lowest Very Below Average Above Very Highest on much Average Average much on • Tathra, New South Wales record below above record average average • Southwestern Victoria

As at 28 March 2018 Fires and rapid drying

Rainfall

Lowest Very Below Average Above Very Highest on much Average Average much on record below above record average average

Rainfall data as at 28 March 2018 Storage data as at 22 March 2018 Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm)

3-month change: December 2017 – March 2018

1–28 March: lower-layer soil moisture

1-month change: February–March 2018 Water storage levels

As at 22 March 2018 Diversity in water supply

• Recently released: • National Water Account 2016–17 urban regions • National performance report 2016–17: urban water utilities • In Perth, desalinated water provided more than half of the urban water supply • Water Corporation WA 'banked' some water in surface water storages in Perth region to meet future demand

1200 1100 1000 900 800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 This700 demonstrates the value of water 600 500 information in planning

400 Urban water supply (ML) by source, 2012–2017 Perth annual rainfall (mm)rainfallannualPerth

Annual Linear (Annual) Critical water supply situation in Cape Town Critical water supply situation in Cape Town

Water level (% capacity)

Source: NASA earthobservatory.nasa.gov Evolution of climate drivers

• Recent conditions • Evolution of climate drivers • Seasonal outlook El Niño–Southern Oscillation The three-month average SOI is +7 or higher

La Niña (Australian Criteria) • Any three of the following: Trade winds have • Sea surface been stronger than temperature < –0.8 ºC average for any three • Stronger trade winds of the last four months • SOI is +7 or higher NINO3 • A majority of climate models show below L NINO3.4 H average temperatures in NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions

–0.8 ºC or cooler in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria) • Any three of the following: Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies • Sea surface 0.2 temperature < –0.8 ºC 0

• Stronger trade winds -0.2 • SOI is +7 or higher -0.4 • A majority of climate models show below Deg C -0.6 average temperatures -0.8 in NINO3 or NINO3.4 -1 regions -1.2 8-Oct-17 8-Nov-17 8-Dec-17 8-Jan-18 8-Feb-18 8-Mar-18

NINO3.4 NINO3 El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria) • Any three of the following: • Sea surface temperature < –0.8 ºC • Stronger trade winds • SOI is +7 or higher • A majority of climate models show below average temperatures in NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions

Stronger trade winds Weaker trade winds El Niño–Southern Oscillation

NINO3.4 outlook La Niña (Australian Criteria) 2 Now El Niño • Any three of the following: 1.6 • Sea surface 1.2 temperature < –0.8 ºC C) 0.8 • Stronger trade winds ° 0.4 • SOI is +7 or higher 0 • A majority of climate -0.4 models show below ( NINO3.4 average temperatures -0.8 in NINO3 or NINO3.4 -1.2 regions -1.6 OISSTv2 (1981-2010) La Niña -2

observed BOM Canada ECMWF Japan Meteofrance NASA NOAA UKMO Seasonal outlook

• Recent conditions • Evolution of climate drivers • Seasonal outlook Rainfall outlook: April–June 2018

April Past accuracy

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

May

Past accuracy Past accuracy Maximum temperature outlook: April–June 2018

April Past accuracy

Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature

May

Past accuracy Past accuracy Minimum temperature outlook: April–June 2018

April Past accuracy

Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature

May

Past accuracy Past accuracy Observed streamflow: February 2018

North East Coast

Australia

Murray–Darling Basin

South West Coast South East Coast (NSW) Tasmania South East Coast (Vic) Seasonal streamflow outlook: March–May 2018

North East Coast

Australia

Murray–Darling Basin

South West Coast South East Coast Tasmania (NSW) South East Coast (Vic) Summary

• Climate drivers are neutral • March rainfall – Above average for Queensland and Tasmania – Average to below average elsewhere – Rapid drying in southeast • Outlook favours cooler temperatures in the northeast • Low and near-median streamflows likely for March to May • Learn about weather and climate Introduction to Meteorology • 23 two-day courses around Australia Course in 2018 • Canberra courses at the Bureau's

Meteorology Trainer and Course Manager office (Treasury Building, Parkes) Philip Perkins • 10-11 April [email protected] • 25-26 September • Courses for agencies can be arranged • Introduction to Climate course coming Thank you

Questions? Joel Lisonbee, Bureau of Meteorology

Tropical cyclone Marcus, March 21, 2018 Image: NASA Agricultural commodity update /climate variability and forecasting March 2018

Andrew Cameron Agricultural commodities section

Australian Bureau of Agricultural Research by the and Resource Economics and Sciences Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

6 - 7 March 2018 Snapshot Context of Australian agriculture We manage highly variable climate, with low producer support

Rainfall variability index Departure from mean rainfall (%), 1970-2015 Note: Departure from mean rainfall measured as a probability density function, which shows the spread of possible values around the mean.

Source: The World Bank Group – Climate Change Knowledge Portal Climate variability and change is projected to accelerate and intensify, presenting threats and opportunities

Climate adjusted productivity for cropping farms (Index, where average of 1977 to 1982 = 100) Source: ABARES Variability of world production

Source: Agricultural Commodity Statistics Australian wheat yields

2016-17

2002-03 2006-07

2017-18s

s ABARES estimate. Variability of Australian wheat yields

2016- 2006-07 17 2002-03 Climate variability makes production forecasting hard

Western Australia’s south central rainfall zone, cropping season rainfall Outlook for Agricultural commodities Value of agricultural production to increase a little

+$1.7b …driven by a return to ‘average’ crop production

$1.7b

$bn Chickpea prices linked to India’s import demand Export growth to follow production

$1.1b

$bn Crops

Source: agriculturewire.com World grain prices

f ABARES forecast. z ABARES projection

World climate conditions have been mixed

Source: Agricultural Market Information System (March 2018) Summer crop production limited

Lowest on record

10 to 20%

30 to 40%

50 to 60%

70 to 80%

90 to 100%

Forecast median shire yield ranked relative to all years Livestock (and products)

Source: ABC Value of livestock production

$780m $1.1b

$m Other livestoc k and product s

Australia’s shifting wool production

25 1991–92

20 1996–97

15 2001 –02

10 2006–07

5 2011–12

% 2016–17 <16.5 18.6-19.5 21.6- 24.6-26.5 30.6+ 22.5 finer microns coarser Beef prices expected to fall agriculture.gov.au/abares/research- topics/agricultural-commodities Source: Bureau of Meteorology Next briefing

Thursday, 26 April 2018