BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update September 2011

Uncertain end-of-season conditions could jeopardize harvests in the Sahelian and North-Central regions

The forecast for normal to below-normal rainfall from Figure 1. Current and most likely estimated food September through November suggests a normal end-of­ security outcomes for September 2011 season, to the detriment of upcoming harvests in October/November.

The lean season in livelihood zone 8 (North transhumant pastoralism and millet)1 and in the north and northeast of livelihood zone 7 (North and East livestock and cereals), where local households are in IPC Phase 2 (stressed), is expected to be longer than usual, extending through the end of September. The combined effects of assistance programs mounted by the government and its partners and of household coping strategies should help adequately meet food needs.

Current terms of trade, particularly for male goats/millet, in the municipality of Tin-Akoff in the northern reaches Source: FEWS NET of livelihood zone 8 are detrimental to pastoralists due to For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference the mediocre progress of crops and of new pasture Table, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale growth in certain localized areas. Figure 2. Most likely estimated food security outcomes for October-December 2011

Updated food security outlook through December 2011

Right now, households in all parts of the country are in IPC Phase 1 (minimal acute food insecurity), except for very poor and poor households in the Sahel and certain municipalities in the northern reaches of the north-central and northern regions (livelihood zones 8 and 7). Grain reserves in these areas are negligible and, in some cases, nonexistent. Their levels are below-average for this time of year. Local markets are the main source of household supplies of staple grains. Harvests of green corn and groundnut crops are easing the food security problems of many poor households and sales of these crops are helping to bring in some income, but harvests Source: FEWS NET in potential problem areas (livelihood zones 7 and 8) are running behind schedule, heightening the market dependence of local households. Certain poor households are buying grain from traders on credit, rather than paying cash for grain from

1 See the livelihood zone map at http://ww.fews.net/docs/Publications/BF_Livelihoods.pdf. This report is an update of the July 2011 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook assessing food security conditions for the period from July through December 2011.The next Outlook report for the period from October 2011 through March 2012 will be released in October. FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +226 50-36-88-36 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/burkina

BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update September 2011 village-level food security reserves sold at prices as much as 20 percent below market prices. Adequate market inventories are ensuring good local grain availability. There has been a small across-the-board seasonal rise in prices since last month, but prices are still lower than they were at the same time last year. Government reserves earmarked for sale to food- insecure households at subsidized prices (3,571 metric tons of grain for the first phase of the subsidized sales program) are available in provinces with at-risk areas for food insecurity problems. However, actual sales, which started up relatively late compared with previous years, are being hampered by technical and/or logistical problems.

As of mid-September, the growing season was making normal progress, with crops in very different stages of growth and development due to the numerous instances of replanting. Most grain crops are in the height growth/heading stage. However, there were reports of millet crops already in the early height growth stage by the beginning of September in many fields in highland areas of , in villages in eastern Séno, northern Oudalan, and in the northern reaches of Sanmatenga and Namentenga provinces in the North-Central part of the country. Rainfall forecasts for the second dekad of September called for moderate to heavy rains all across the country, which should help spur plant growth and development. The seasonal climate outlooks released by the NOAA, IRI, and ECMWF between June and August all showed a high probability of normal cumulative rainfall totals for the country as a whole through the end of the season in September- October. However, a normal end-of-season will not allow for even an average harvest in livelihood zones 8 and 7 with the delay in the planting of crops in these areas. Nationwide grain production could end up at somewhere around 4,100,000 metric tons, similar to the figure for 2008/09 and 10 to 15 percent above the five-year average. The upcoming harvests beginning in October should allow for the rebuilding of household reserves and the restoration of satisfactory food security conditions. The initial focus on sales of cowpea, sesame, groundnut, and earth pea crops should keep grain prices relatively stable, at least for the first quarter of the 2011/12 consumption year. Surface water levels are expected to be normal, which should ensure adequate watering conditions for livestock, but will certainly not allow for good harvests of off-season crops. The average levels of natural pasture production in northern livestock-raising areas could trigger earlier-than-usual seasonal migration by migratory animal herds.

The lean season in potential problem areas of the Sahel in livelihood zone 8 (North transhumant pastoralism and millet) and in the north of livelihood zone 7 (North and East livestock and cereals), which was expected to gradually wind down with harvests of green corn crops in early September and of cowpea, millet, and sorghum crops beginning in mid- September, extended through the end of September due to reported lags in the maturation of these crops. Households in these areas are still in IPC Phase 2 (stressed). Poor households have virtually no food reserves whatsoever and the reserves of middle-income households are reportedly low. Markets are well-stocked with trader inventories from the western part of the country and are still the main source of household food supplies. Millet prices are up slightly from last month by 1.6 to 5.5 percent and are 14 percent higher than last year. In general, millet prices are lower than they were at the same time last year but on par with the five-year average, with the exception of prices on markets in Tin-Akoff and on the Déou market in Oudalan. Grain sales by the government at a subsidized price of 11,000 XOF per 100 kg sack should help facilitate grain access for the poor through the end of the month. Meanwhile, sales of livestock (poultry and goats), milk, and wild plant products and borrowing are helping to ensure an adequate food supply for poor households. Planting delays and the photosensitivity of millet crops have shortened their normal harvesting period. As a result, members of poor households are not as readily available as usual for outside employment. However, at between 1,000 and 2,000 XOF/day, daily wage rates are not that different than usual. Instead, farmers are entering into somewhat unusual, mutually-beneficial crop maintenance agreements in which laborers are being fed in return for their work. There is more interest than usual in the regular harvest of wild fonio at this time of year in livelihood zone 8 in the municipality of Tin-Akoff and in northern Beldiabé, where the extent of the use of this strategy this year is somewhat atypical, with reports of certain households traveling as far as Mali for the fonio harvest in that country.

Despite the normalization of seasonal conditions in most parts of the country, there are still concerns over harvests in certain municipalities in Yagha, northern Namentenga, and Sanmatenga provinces (in livelihood zone 7), as well as in Yatenga (Tangaye, , Oula, Namissiguima, and Zogoré), and Oudalan (Tin-Akoff, in livelihood zone 8) due to reported lags in the maturation of grain crops in these areas. The lack of rain between August 22nd and September 7th in the municipality of Tin-Akoff, where most millet crops are in the tillering to early height growth stage, was extremely discouraging for local farmers, some of whom actually abandoned their fields. The erratic rainfall activity in Oula department in Yatenga province delayed the planting of crops in certain farming communities until the end of August. New pasture growth in these areas is mediocre, though fairly good in other areas. Crops in Darkoye, Tin-Akoff, and in northern Beldiabé in Oudalan are already beginning to wilt, which is not normally the case until the early part of October.

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BURKINA FASO Food Security Outlook Update September 2011

Households in Tin-Akoff will be unable to rebuild their food reserves with their on-farm production. There are already reports of large numbers of local youths leaving the area for Cote d’Ivoire, which does not generally happen until October/November in a normal year.

In general, livestock supplies are stable, but there are larger supplies of goats on markets in the Sahel, which is apparently attributable to a growing demand in coastal states like , as well as to the seasonal deterioration in the food security situation of poor pastoral households. August prices for all types of animals were still high, with the exception of goats. According to the findings by a joint mission by the government and its food security partners to Tin-Akoff in early September to monitor the progress of the agropastoral season and the household food security and nutritional situation in that area, a male goat selling for an average of 20,000 to 22,000 XOF in August was selling for only 12,500 to 15,000 XOF by early September. Terms of trade for goats/millet are detrimental to pastoralists in many areas such as Tin-Akoff, where they are at 60-70 kg of millet/goat. Elsewhere, the good physical condition of animals, the strong demand for goats for the celebration of Tabaski and the year-end holidays, and the normal seasonal decline in grain prices with the beginning of the harvest could turn trends in terms of trade in favor of pastoralists between the start of the harvesting season in October and the end of December.

There should be an improvement in food security conditions as of October with the availability of green crops and the beginning of the harvesting season. Households should not experience acute food insecurity through the end of December. Poor households in areas where growing season conditions are similar to those in Tin-Akoff may already be dependent on local markets for their food supplies for the last quarter of this year. In fact, these households will have barely one month’s worth of grain reserves at their disposal as of the end of this growing season. Poor households will resort to their usual coping strategies (migration to gold washing sites, craft-making, tending animal herds, etc.) to enable them to purchase their grain supplies on the market beginning in November or December.

Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events

Source: FEWS NET

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