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The Future of Australian Sport Executive Summary – Sports Megatrends CSIRO FUTURES www.csiro.au The future of Australian Megatrends shaping the sports sector over coming decades sport A consultancy report by CSIRO for the Australian Sports Commission Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Lisa Wilhelmseder and Naomi Boughen February 2013 CITATION IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CSIRO FUTURES Hajkowicz, S.A., Cook, H., CSIRO advises that the information This research was jointly funded CSIRO Futures is a research team Wilhelmseder, L., Boughen, N., contained in this publication and conducted by the Australian which conducts foresight and 2013. The Future of Australian comprises general statements Sports Commission and CSIRO. We strategy research for industry, Sport: Megatrends shaping based on scientific research. The are grateful to all those individuals government and community the sports sector over coming reader is advised and needs to be with expertise and knowledge of clients. The research team decades. A Consultancy Report aware that such information may the sports sector who attended combines economics, geography, for the Australian Sports be incomplete or unable to be used workshops, shared their knowledge technology foresight, social Commission. CSIRO, Australia. in any specific situation. No reliance in interviews and participated science, management science and or actions must therefore be in online forum discussions. other disciplines to describe future COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER made on that information without trends, shocks and scenarios. The © 2013 Commonwealth seeking prior expert professional, team draws upon the breadth Scientific and Industrial scientific and technical advice. and depth of CSIRO expertise. Research Organisation and the To the extent permitted by law, For further information see: Australian Sports Commission. CSIRO (including its employees and http://www.csiro.au/futures. All rights are reserved. Except consultants) excludes all liability to to the extent permitted by the any person for any consequences, Copyright Act 1968, no part including but not limited to all of this publication covered by losses, damages, costs, expenses copyright may be transmitted, and any other compensation, reproduced or copied in any arising directly or indirectly from form or by any means without using this publication (in part or the prior written permission of in whole) and any information the owners of this publication. or material contained in it. C The future of Australian sport Executive Summary – Sports Megatrends This report by CSIRO for the Australian A Perfect Fit Sports Commission identifies six Individualised sport and fitness activities Government, 2010). Australians are megatrends likely to shape the are on the rise (Standing Committee becoming more health conscious. We Australian sports sector over the next on Recreation and Sport, 2010). People are increasingly playing sport to get fit, 30 years. A megatrend represents are fitting sport into their increasingly rather than getting fit to play sport. an important pattern of social, busy and time-fragmented lifestyles economic or environmental change. to achieve personal health objectives. From extreme to mainstream Megatrends occur at the intersection Participation rates in aerobics, This megatrend captures the rise of of multiple trends and hold potential running, walking, along with gym lifestyle, adventure and alternative implications for policy and investment membership, have all risen sharply over sports which are particularly popular the past decade while participation choices being made by community with younger generations. These sports rates for many organised sports have groups, industry and government. typically involve complex, advanced held constant or declined (Standing The megatrends are shown below skills and have some element of inherent Committee on Recreation and Sport, danger and/or thrill-seeking. They are in an interlinked and overlapping 2010). People are increasingly opting also characterised by a strong lifestyle Venn Diagram. This captures the to go for a run with headphones and element and participants often obtain connection between the different a music player when the opportunity cultural self-identity and self-expression forces potentially shaping the future. arises rather than commit to a regular through these sports. These sports are organised sporting event. Expenditure likely to attract participants through on healthcare as a proportion of generational change and greater total expenditure has been, and is awareness via online content (e.g. forecast to continue, rising (Australian YouTube, Facebook, Twitter). There is strong viewer demand for extreme sports videos on the internet and television. These sports are also finding their way into the Olympic Games; A perfect fit with a recent addition being BMX Personalised sport for health and fitness cycling, introduced at the Beijing 2008 Olympics. International associations for skateboarding and rock climbing are Tracksuits to From extreme making substantial efforts to have these business suits to mainstream included as Olympic sports in the future. Market pressures and The rise of lifestyle sports new business models New wealth, new talent More than sport Economic growth and sports The attainment of health, development in Asia community and overseas aid objectives via sport Everybody’s game Demographic, generational and cultural change 1 Sport for children and adults is an effective means for reducing the rising rates of obesity and diabetes. More than Sport Everybody’s Game New Wealth, New Talent The broader benefits of sport are being Australia and other countries of the Population and income growth increasingly recognised by governments, Organisation for Economic Cooperation throughout Asia will create tougher business and communities. Sport can and Development (OECD) face an ageing competition and new opportunities for help achieve mental and physical health, population. This will change the types of Australia both on the sports field and crime prevention, social development sports we play and how we play them. in the sports business environment. and international cooperation There are indications that Australians Asian countries are investing heavily objectives (Cameron & MacDougall, are embracing sport into their old in sports capabilities and, especially 2000; Schmitz et al., 2004). Sport age. To retain strong participation in the case of China, have rapidly for children and adults is an effective rates, sports of the future will need improved gold medal outcomes at means of reducing the rising rates of to cater for senior citizens. They will the Olympics over recent decades obesity and chronic illness. If managed also need to cater for the changing (Hong et al., 2005). As disposable appropriately, it can be an effective cultural make-up of Australia. Australian incomes grow, the populations of mechanism to help achieve social society has become, and will continue Asian countries are becoming more inclusion for marginalised groups and to become, highly multicultural. interested in sport. This may create reduce crime rates. Sport can also build Different cultures have different new markets for sports television, bridges to other countries and achieve sporting preferences and recreation sports tourism, sports equipment, overseas aid, peace, development habits. Sporting organisations will be sport services and sports events. and foreign policy objectives. challenged with capturing the interest and involvement of diverse cultures. Tracksuits to Business Suits Market forces are likely to exert greater pressure on sport in the future. In some sports, elite athletes have had considerable pay rises and large sponsorship deals. This has not occurred in other sports (McMillan, 2011). Sports with higher salaries may draw athletes away from those with lower salaries. Loosely organised community sports associations are likely to be replaced by organisations with corporate structures and more formal governance systems in light of market pressures. The cost of participating in sport is also rising and this is a participation barrier for many people. 2 The future of Australian sport contents Executive Summary – Sports Megatrends 1 Introduction 4 Exploring the Future 5 A Perfect Fit 6 From Extreme to Mainstream 11 More than Sport 15 Everybody’s Game 20 New Wealth, New Talent 25 Tracksuits to Business Suits 31 Conclusion 36 References 37 3 Introduction Australia loves sport. It has always been and will continue to be part of our cultural identity. From playing catch in the backyard through to the Olympic and Paralympic podiums the majority of Australians play, watch and enjoy sport. Sport may be defined as ‘a human rugby, swimming, cycling, netball, The megatrends presented in activity involving physical exertion sailing and many other sports Australia this document are based on: and skill as the primary focus of the excels on the international stage. ◆ interviews with 40 people with activity, with elements of competition Sport holds economic significance to long-standing involvement in the where rules and patterns of behaviour Australia. The sports sector directly sports sector, conducted from governing the activity exist formally employs 75,000 Australians, which November 2011 to January 2012; through organisations and is generally equates to one per cent of the total recognised as a sport’ (Australian ◆ a review of industry reports, workforce. Every year Australian Government, 2011). Over the course government reports and academic households
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