Food Commodities Photo WFP/Aman ur Rehman khan
Market Monitor Report
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Pakistan | June 2021
HIGHLIGHTS
• The prices of staple cereals and non-cereal food commodities in May 2021 experienced negligible, slight, and significant fluctuations when compared to the previous month’s prices.
• In May 2021, the average retail price of wheat flour significantly increased by 11% while the price of wheat negligibly decreased by 0.8% from April 2021. Moreover, the price of rice Irri-6 negligibly decreased by 0.9% while the price of rice Basmati slightly increased by 1.6% from the previous month.
• In May, compared to the previous month, a significant increase was noted in the retail price of live chicken along with negligible increases for cooking oil and vegetable ghee. Moreover, a more than slight decrease was noted for eggs and slight decreases for pulses (Moong, Masoor, Gram) along with negligible decreases for pulse Mash and Sugar compared to the previous month.
• Headline inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased in May 2021 by 0.1% over April 2021 and increased by 10.87% over May 2020.
• In May 2021, the average ToT more than slightly decreased by 9.7% from the previous month.
• In June 2021, the total global wheat production for 2021/22 is projected at 794.44 million MT, indicating a production increase of 5.5 million MT compared to the projection made in May 2021. Market Monitor | Pakistan | June 2021 Page 2
Headline inflation Headline inflation based on the Table 1 CPI (%) Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased Food Non-Food in May 2021 by 0.1% over April 2021 Period Urban Rural Urban Rural and increased by 10.87% over May YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM 2020. The food/non-food values of CPI April 2021 15.7 2.7 14.1 0.9 8.2 0.5 8.9 0.3 disaggregated at urban and rural areas May 2021 15.3 1.1 12.8 0.2 8.3 -0.3 9.2 -0.3 is presented in Table 1. The weighted YoY = Year-on-Year, MoM = Month-on-Month contribution of food group in the Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. overall CPI increased from 150.70 indices in April 2021 to 151.72 in May 2021 registering an increase of 0.67%, while it increased in May 2021 by 14.83% over May 20201.
2 Retail prices of staple cereals Figure 1: Retail prices of cereal food commodities In May 2021, the average retail prices of wheat and (May 2020 - May 2021) wheat flour across the country’s main markets3 were 100 recorded at PKR 53.08 and PKR 56.91 per kg, 90 80 4 respectively, indicating a negligible decrease in the 70 price of wheat (0.8%) and a significant increase in 60 PKR per KG per PKR 50 the price of wheat flour (11%) from April 2021. 40 Further, the prices of rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati 30
were recorded at PKR 73.74 and PKR 95.65,
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jun-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Sep-20 Feb-21
Dec-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Mar-21 May-21 respectively, indicating a negligible decrease for May-20 rice Irri-6 (0.9%) and a slight increase for rice Wheat Wheat Flour Irri-6 Basmati Basmati (1.6%) from the previous month, Figure 1. Compared to three months ago (February 2021), the price of wheat decreased slightly by 7.9% while the price of wheat flour increased significantly by 13.7% in May 2021. Whereas, the price increased negligibly for rice Irri-6 (0.6%) and increased slightly for rice Basmati (2.5%) in May 2021 when compared to their prices from three months ago. Compared to six months ago (November 2020), in May 2021, a slight decrease was noted in the price of wheat (5.6%) along with slight increases in the prices of wheat flour (6.5%), rice Irri-6 (3.2%) and rice Basmati (5%). On one-year comparison, in May 2021, there were significant increases in the prices of wheat (27.5%) and wheat flour (25%). Moreover, slight increases were noted in the prices of rice Irri-6 (4.1%) and rice Basmati (4.3%) over the same period.
Retail prices5of non-cereal food commodities Figure 2 : Retail prices of non-cereal food commodities In May 2021, negligible, slight, and significant (May 2020 - May 2021) fluctuations were observed in the retail prices of 350 essential non-cereal food commodities when 300 compared to their prices from a month ago, 250 (Figure 2). 200 150 In May 2021, compared to the prices from the 100 50 previous month, a significant increase was noted KG/LTR/DOZEN per PKR
in the average retail price of live chicken (16.5%)
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jun-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Sep-20 Feb-21
Dec-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Mar-21 May-21 along with negligible increases in the prices of May-20 cooking oil (0.4%) and vegetable ghee (0.2%). Sugar Veg Ghee Cooking Oil Live Chicken Masoor Moong Moreover, a more than slight decrease was noted Mash Gram (YSP) Eggs in the price of eggs (9.7%) together with slight
1 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. 2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. 3 Lahore, Multan, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta. 4 Ranges of terms: Negligible: >0 to <1%, Slight: 1% to <8%, More than slight: 8% to <10%, Significant: 10% or higher. 5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan.
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | June 2021 Page 3 decreases in the prices of pulses Moong (1.7%), Masoor (1.6%), and Gram (1.2%) along with negligible decreases for pulse Mash (0.5%) and Sugar (0.3%) compared to the previous month.
Compared to three months ago (February 2021), in May 2021, a significant increase was noted in the price of live chicken (31.2%) and slight increases for vegetable ghee (4.5%), cooking oil (4%), sugar (4.2%), and pulse Mash (3%) along with a negligible increase for pulse Gram (0.8%). Moreover, slight decreases were observed in the prices of pulse Moong (3.9%) and pulse Masoor along with a negligible decrease for eggs (0.5%) compared to three months ago.
Compared to six months ago (November 2020), in May 2021, significant increases were noted in the prices of live chicken (37.4%), vegetable ghee (22%), and cooking oil (21.7%) along with slight increases for pulse Mash (6.7%) and pulse Gram (3.7%). Moreover, a significant decrease was noted for eggs (15.2%) along with slight decreases in the prices of sugar (1.9%) and pulse Masoor (0.5%), while the price of pulse Moong remained unchanged compared to six months ago.
Compared to a year ago (May 2020), significant increases were noted in the prices of eggs (52.3%), live chicken (45.3%), cooking oil (20.7%), vegetable ghee (19.9%) and Sugar (18%) along with a negligible increase for pulse Mash (0.6%). Moreover, a significant decrease was observed for pulse Moong (19.8%), a slight decrease for pulse Masoor (3.6%) and a negligible decrease for pulse Gram (0.8%) compared to a year ago.
Major markets across the country were found generally well-integrated for most of the cereal and non-cereal products in May 2021, except for markets in Quetta, where the prices of pulses (Masoor, Moong and Gram) were found the highest among the monitored cities - mainly because Quetta city is located farther from producing districts. Moreover, Quetta was also found to have the highest prices for wheat, rice Irri-6, live chicken and eggs compared to the other cities. On the other hand, Karachi had the highest price for wheat flour, rice Basmati, and Sugar, while Lahore had the highest price for pulse Mash compared to the other cities.
Global wheat production
In June 2021, the total global wheat production Figure 3: Trends of global & regional retail prices of wheat (USD) projection for 2021/22 increased to 794.446 million (May 2020 - May 2021) MT from 788.98 million MT in May 2021 resulting 450 in a projected production increase of 5.5 million 400 MT in June 2021. 350
Total global wheat consumption for 2021/22 is USD/MT 300 projected to increase in June 2021 by 2.4 million 250
MT. Moreover, the total global ending stocks of 200 wheat are projected to increase by 1.8 million MT 150 in June 20217.
In May 2021, the price of wheat increased in Australia (6.1%)8, USA (5.6%)9, and Afghanistan Australia US (Gulf) Afghanistan 10 11 (4.2%) while it decreased in Pakistan (1.6%) and Pakistan India India (0.7%) compared to the previous month.
In May 2021, the retail price of wheat in Pakistan was 20% higher than in Australia, 17% higher than in USA, while it was 20% lower than in India and 18% lower than in Afghanistan. Trends of the global and regional retail prices of wheat are presented in Figure 3.
6 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA. 7 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA. 8 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). 9 FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). 10 WFP, Afghanistan. 11 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan.
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | June 2021 Page 4
Prices of petroleum products In May 2021, retail prices of Super Petrol and Figure 4 : Price trends of petroleum products High-Speed Diesel (HSD) were recorded at PKR (May 2020 - May 2021) 12 108.56 and PKR 110.76 per liter, respectively, 120 indicating no change in their prices from the 115 previous month (Figure 4). 110 105 100 On a three-month comparison (February 2021), in
PKR/Liter 95 May 2021 the prices decreased slightly for Super 90 Petrol (3%) and HSD (4.6%). On a six-month 85 comparison (November 2020), while the price 80 75
increased slightly for Super Petrol (7.8%) it
Jul-20 Jan-21
increased more than slightly for HSD (9.2%). Jun-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Sep-20 Feb-21
Dec-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
May-20 May-21 Compared to a year ago (May 2020), the prices Super Petrol High Speed Diesel (HSD) increased significantly for Super Petrol (33.1%) and HSD (38.3%) both.
Terms-of-Trade (ToT)13 In May 2021, the average ToT was recorded at 15.88 kg of wheat flour. The ToT more than slightly decreased by 9.7% from the previous month, mainly due to a significant increase in the price of wheat flour from the previous month while the average wage rate increased only negligibly compared to the previous month, (Figure 5).
Compared to three months ago (February 2021), the ToT significantly decreased in May 2021 by 10%, while compared to six months ago (November 2020) it decreased slightly by 3.8%. Whereas, it decreased significantly by 17.1% compared to a year ago (May 2020).
City-wise, the ToT varied across different cities due to variations either in wheat flour price or the labor wage14, or both. The highest ToT was observed in Quetta at 17.6 kg, mainly due to higher wage rate, while the lowest ToT was in Multan at 13.2 kg15 mainly due to higher price of wheat flour and low wage rate.
12 Pakistan State Oil (PSO). 13 The ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group. In this Bulletin, the Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual unskilled labor wage and wheat flour is applied. This ToT reveals how many kilograms of wheat flour can be purchased with one-day casual unskilled labor wage but does not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs. 14 The income base for computation of ToT is the average wage rate of five major cities (Lahore, Multan, Karachi, Peshawar & Quetta). 15 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan.
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | June 2021 Page 5
RETAIL PRICES OF ESSENTIAL FOOD COMMODITIES IN MAJOR CITIES – MAY 2021 Current Prices-May Major % Change Over Change Direction Markets Commodities 2021/kg PKR USD 1M 3M 6M 1Y IM 3M 6M 1Y Lahore 51.58 0.34 -4.72% -14.38% -10.77% 24.67% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ Multan 46.69 0.30 -2.98% -18.26% -17.72% 32.46% ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ Wheat Karachi 58.00 0.38 3.95% 0.87% 8.41% 31.82% ▲ ► ▲ ▲ Peshawar 48.44 0.31 0.10% -7.28% -13.08% 19.61% ► ▼ ▼ ▲ Quetta 60.66 0.39 -0.55% -0.55% 5.96% 29.07% ► ► ▲ ▲ Lahore 53.07 0.34 18.33% 23.42% 23.42% 31.05% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Multan 53.18 0.35 8.12% 20.04% 23.67% 32.12% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Wheat Flour Karachi 64.47 0.42 5.68% 0.75% 6.41% 19.80% ▲ ► ▲ ▲ Peshawar 51.59 0.34 7.54% 1.34% -10.18% 14.24% ▲ ► ▼ ▲ Quetta 62.25 0.40 16.60% 29.69% -1.58% 30.03% ▲ ▲ ► ▲ Lahore 60.00 0.39 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.89% ► ► ► ► Multan 68.86 0.45 -0.82% 4.63% 12.53% 8.00% ► ► ▲ ► Rice Irri-6 Karachi 79.95 0.52 1.36% 5.13% 12.34% 16.14% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Peshawar 70.00 0.45 -5.20% -6.45% 0.00% 0.00% ▼ ▼ ► ► Quetta 89.91 0.58 0.00% 0.00% -5.27% -5.27% ► ► ▼ ► Lahore 88.78 0.58 8.19% 15.49% 15.49% 18.83% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Multan 93.75 0.61 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.00% ► ► ► ► Rice Basmati Karachi 110.79 0.72 0.66% 7.26% 11.43% 18.25% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ (Broken) Peshawar 90.00 0.58 0.00% 2.66% 12.50% 4.01% ► ► ▲ ► Quetta 94.91 0.62 0.00% -9.54% -9.54% -17.42% ► ▼ ▼ ▼ Lahore 92.20 0.60 -3.25% -3.40% -3.15% 9.40% ▼ ► ► ► Multan 96.45 0.63 0.50% 4.75% 1.87% 20.73% ► ► ► ▲ Sugar Karachi 101.01 0.66 1.25% 7.71% 0.21% 22.60% ▲ ▲ ► ▲ Peshawar 100.80 0.66 0.10% 6.92% -4.26% 19.69% ► ▲ ► ▲ Quetta 100.00 0.65 0.00% 5.26% -3.99% 17.99% ► ▲ ► ▲ Lahore 310.00 2.01 0.79% 7.02% 23.02% 23.17% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ Multan 310.00 2.01 0.00% 4.47% 22.05% 18.32% ► ► ▲ ▲ Vegetable Karachi 310.00 2.01 0.00% 1.97% 22.05% 18.32% ► ► ▲ ▲ Ghee (Tin) Peshawar 304.00 1.98 0.00% 7.52% 20.63% 16.03% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ Quetta 310.00 2.01 0.00% 1.97% 22.05% 24.00% ► ► ▲ ▲ Lahore 308.00 2.00 0.00% 3.01% 21.74% 24.19% ► ► ▲ ▲ Multan 308.00 2.00 1.19% 5.57% 21.74% 18.46% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Cooking Oil Karachi 308.00 2.00 0.00% 3.01% 21.74% 18.46% ► ► ▲ ▲ (Tin) Peshawar 308.00 2.00 0.60% 5.57% 21.74% 18.46% ► ▲ ▲ ▲ Quetta 308.00 2.00 0.00% 3.01% 21.74% 24.19% ► ► ▲ ▲ Lahore 277.20 1.80 16.58% 31.77% 35.51% 54.27% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Multan 301.02 1.96 16.42% 26.21% 35.41% 41.32% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Chicken Live Karachi 328.46 2.13 15.00% 29.32% 33.80% 33.37% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ (Farm) Peshawar 283.07 1.84 11.14% 27.05% 31.14% 45.46% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Quetta 357.89 2.33 22.77% 40.86% 50.20% 54.76% ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ Lahore 158.44 1.03 0.00% 1.49% 11.64% -8.56% ► ► ▲ ► Multan 145.47 0.95 1.54% -2.18% -2.18% 2.03% ▲ ► ► ► Pulse Masoor Karachi 158.32 1.03 -1.71% 0.50% 0.32% -5.61% ▼ ► ► ► (Washed) Peshawar 142.44 0.93 -3.55% -10.60% -10.98% -8.71% ▼ ▼ ▼ ► Quetta 164.95 1.07 -4.06% -1.48% 0.07% 4.02% ▼ ► ► ► Lahore 235.54 1.53 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% -18.21% ► ► ► ▼ Multan 199 1.30 -3.05% -13.60% -2.43% -27.69% ▼ ▼ ► ▼ Pulse Moong Karachi 246.99 1.60 -0.84% 0.66% -2.12% -13.00% ► ► ► ▼ (Washed) Peshawar 200 1.30 -3.14% -5.07% 0.00% -25.93% ▼ ▼ ► ▼ Quetta 264.92 1.72 -1.87% -2.32% 3.91% -15.13% ▼ ► ► ▼ Lahore 287.06 1.87 0.00% 5.75% 15.91% -1.30% ► ▲ ▲ ► Multan 246.23 1.60 -1.24% 0.22% 6.37% 15.23% ▼ ► ▲ ▲ Pulse Mash Karachi 256.82 1.67 -0.14% 4.25% 4.71% 9.10% ► ► ► ► (Washed) Peshawar 255.00 1.66 -2.96% 3.36% 10.87% -4.55% ▼ ► ▲ ► Quetta 274.92 1.79 1.83% 1.37% -2.65% -9.84% ▲ ► ► ► Lahore 145.54 0.95 0.00% 5.90% 13.59% 2.25% ► ▲ ▲ ► Pulse Gram Multan 140.50 0.91 -0.91% -1.42% 7.98% 12.78% ► ► ▲ ▲ (a.k.a. Yellow Karachi 159.39 1.04 -2.28% 0.87% 0.61% -4.65% ▼ ► ► ► Split Peas) Peshawar 150.00 0.97 -2.55% 0.00% 0.00% -6.22% ▼ ► ► ► Quetta 172.43 1.12 -0.29% -0.73% -0.73% -4.10% ► ► ► ► ▲Price increase above normal fluctuation ▼Price decrease above normal fluctuation ►Normal price fluctuation. 1M= One month, 3M= Three months, 6M= Six month, 1Y= One year Price fluctuation is considered normal if the price change is 1% for one month, 5% during three and six months, and 10% during one-year period.
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WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis