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Here Is a Lag, We Predict Some Further Upward Pressure on CPI Prices This Month

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Here Is a Lag, We Predict Some Further Upward Pressure on CPI Prices This Month Macro & FICC research Week Ahead Friday, 9 July 2021 Key Economic Indicators & Events: 12 July – 18 July, 2021 DueDate to USCE SgovernmentT Country Event shutdown many US calender events are cancelled.Period If SEBthe forecast*shutdown ends.Consensus* US indicators not includedLast* in this calenderMon 12 Auctions: could be U.S. presented. to sell bills, 3y notes & 10y notes (17:30, 19:00, 19:00). Reports: Kinnevik. Speeches: Fed’s Kashkari speaks at Townhall (18:00). Other: Bloomberg July Eurozone/Germany economic survey (08:30/08:35), Riksbank publishes Minutes from June 30 meeting (09:30), Eurogroup meeting (13:00), National Bank publishes Inflation Report. 01:50 JAP Core machine orders May 2.5/6.3 0.6/6.5 01:50 JAP PPI Jun 0.5/4.7 0.7/4.9 06:30 SWE SEB Swedish housing-price indicator 65 08:00 DEN CPI Jun -0.1/1.6 --- 0.2/1.7 08:00 JAP Machine tool orders yoy Jun P --- 141.9 12:00 SWE Swedish weekly unemployment (PES) Tue 13 Auctions: Germany to sell 2y bonds (11:30), U.S. to sell bills & 30y bonds (17:30, 19:00). Reports: JM, DNB Bank, JPMorgan Chase. Speeches: Riksbank's Ingves participates in panel discussion (15:00), Fed Hosts event on racism and the economy (18:00). Other: European Council: Economic and Financial Affairs Council, France: CPI final (08:45). 06:00 SWE PES unemployment rate Jun --- 3.6 08:00 GER CPI | CPI EU harmonized Jun F --- 0.4/2.3 | 0.4/2.1 12:00 US NFIB small business optimism Jun 100.0 99.6 14:30 US CPI | CPI ex. food energy Jun 0.5/5.0 | 0.5/4.1 0.5/4.9 | 0.4/4.0 0.6/5.0 | 0.7/3.8 14:30 US CPI index NSA | core index SA Jun --- | 276.96 269.20 | 275.72 14:30 US Real avg. weekly earnings yoy | hourly earnings Jun --- -2.2 | -2.8 TBD CHI Trade balance | exports yoy | imports yoy Jun $44.4bn | 23.1 | 29.8 $45.5bn | 27.9 | 51.1 Wed 14 Auctions: Germany to sell 10y bonds (11:30). Reports: Avanza Bank Holding, Tele2. Speeches: Powell to deliver semi-annual testimony to House Panel (18:00), BOE's Ramsden speaks at The Strand Group (19:00), Fed’s Kashkari discusses programs to target AAPI communities (19:30). Other: Fed publishes Monetary Policy Report before Powells testimony, DOE U.S. crude oil inventories (16:30). 08:00 UK CPI | CPI core yoy | CPIH yoy Jun 0.2/2.2 | 1.9 | --- ---/2.3 | --- | --- 0.6/2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 08:00 UK RPI | RPI ex. mort. int. payments yoy Jun 0.3/3.3 | --- --- 0.3/3.3 | 3.4 09:30 SWE CPIF | CPIF excl. energy Jun 0.1/1.6 | 0.0/0.9 --- 0.2/2.1 | 0.1/1.2 09:30 SWE CPI | CPI level Jun 0.1/1.3 | --- --- 0.2/1.8 | 341.04 11:00 EA Industrial production May 0.2/22.7 0.8/39.3 14:00 POL Current account balance May --- 1740mn 14:30 US PPI final demand | ex. food energy | ex. food engy trade Jun 0.5/6.8 | 0.4/--- | 0.5/--- 0.8/6.6|0.7/4.8|0.7/5.3 16:00 CAN Bank of Canada rate decision 0.25 0.25 20:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve releases Beige Book Thu 15 Auctions: U.S. to sell bills (17:30). Reports: SEB, Castellum, Beijer Ref, Finnair, Investor. Speeches: BOE's Saunders speaks on inflation outlook (12:00), Powell to deliver semi-annual testimony to Senate Banking Pane (15:30)., Fed’s Evans discusses the economy (17:00). Other: Bank of England Bank Liabilites/Credit Conditions Surveys (10:30). 03:30 AUS Unemployment rate Jun 5.1 5.1 04:00 CHI GDP qoq/yoy Q2 1.0/8.0 0.6/18.3 04:00 CHI Retail sales yoy | industrial production Jun 11.0/8.0 12.4/8.8 08:00 UK Claimant count rate | jobless claims change Jun --- 6.2 | -92.6k 08:00 UK Average weekly earnings 3m/yoy | ex. bonuses May --- 5.6 | 5.6 08:00 UK ILO unemployment rate 3mths May 4.8 4.7 08:00 SWE Prospera Swedish inflation expectations survey 14:30 US Import price index | export price index Jun 1.2/--- |1.3/--- 1.1/11.3 | 2.2/17.4 14:30 US Empire manufacturing Jul 18.7 17.4 14:30 US Philadelphia Fed business outlook Jul 28.0 30.7 14:30 US Initial jobless claims | continuing claims --- 373k | 3339k 15:15 US Industrial production mom | manufacturing (SIC) prod. Jun 0.6 | 0.3 0.8 | 0.9 15:15 US Capacity utilization Jun 75.7 75.2 Fri 16 Reports: AAK, Atlas Copco, Autoliv, Balder, Essity, Handelsbanken, Husqvarna, Ericsson, Peab, Sweco, Swedbank. Speeches: Fed's Williams Partakes in event on culture in workplace (15:00). Other: Bloomberg July Sweden economic survey (11:00), Russia Sovereign Debt to be rated by S&P. 10:00 POL CPI core Jun --- 0.3/4.0 11:00 EA Trade balance SA May --- EUR 9.4 bn 11:00 EA CPI | CPI core yoy Jun F ---/1.9 | 0.9 0.3/2.0 | 0.9 14:30 US Retail sales advance | ex auto | ex auto gas | control gr. Jun -0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 -1.3 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.7 16:00 US U. of Mich. sentiment | curr. conditions | expectations Jul P 86.5 | --- | --- 85.5 | 88.6 | 83.5 22:00 US Total net TIC flows | long-term TIC flows May --- 101 bn | 101 bn TBD JAP BOJ policy balance rate | 10yr yield target --- -0.1 | 0.0 * % MoM/YoY unless otherwise state Lara Mohtadi, [email protected] Macro & FICC research: Week Ahead Friday, 09 July 2021 2 SWE: Riksbank minutes Riksbank forecast on 1 July Monday 12, 09:30 Riksbank Riksbank Riksbank Forecast, Forecast, expected by • As expected the Riksbank kept the rate path and QE program July April SEB July unchanged on 1 July. The path indicates a rate at zero to at CPIF 21 1.8 1.5 1.8 least Q3-2024. The board made some revisions to possible CPIF 22 1.7 1.4 1.4 policy reactions in the press release opening for a small prob- CPIF 23 1.8 1.7 1.7 ability that policy will be made less expansionary. The board CPIF ex energy 21 1.2 1.1 1.3 also opened slightly more for other measurs than a rate cut. CPIF ex energy 22 1.5 1.4 1.4 • July: “The Executive Board may cut the repo rate or in some CPIF ex energy 23 1.7 1.7 1.7 other way make monetary policy more expansionary if inflation Wages 21 2.7 2.6 2.5 prospects weaken. This applies in particular if confidence in the Wages 22 2.6 2.5 2.5 inflation target were to be under threat. A less expansionary Wages 23 2.7 2.6 2.6 monetary policy may be justified if inflation were to risk GDP 21 4.2 3.7 4.4 overshooting the target significantly and persistently.” GDP 22 3.7 3.6 3.8 • April: “It is also entirely possible to cut the repo rate, part- Unemployment 21 8.7 8.6 8.6 icularly if confidence in the inflation target were under threat”. Unemployment 22 7.4 7.7 7.6 • The minutes may reveal if the changes to press-release reflects any changes to the board’s thinking. Did any board member KIX index 21 113.8 113.7 114.0 argue that the far end of the repo rate path should signal some KIX index 22 113.7 113.4 113.0 probability for a rate hike? US: CPI (Jun) Tuesday 13, 14:30 % mm/yy SEB Cons. Prev. CPI (headline) 0.5/5.0 0.5/4.9 0.6/5.0 CPI ex. food energy (core) 0.5/4.1 0.4/4.9 0.7/3.8 • Inflation in June is expected to slow compared to April and May but continue to be elevated compared to the pre-pandemic trend. Auction prices on used cars levelled out in June but since there is a lag, we predict some further upward pressure on CPI prices this month. • Furthermore, prices on transport and hospitality services are expected to continue to normalize after declining last spring, even-though some prices are approaching pre-pandemic trends. • Underlying price trends are difficult to assess. Some upward pressure on producer prices on consumer goods is starting to emerge, while wage inflation appears to be largely stable. We, the Fed as well as the market expect the current upturn in inflation to be temporary, but uncertainty continues to be higher than normal. SWE: CPI (Jun) Wednesday 14, 09:30 % mm/yy SEB Cons. Riksbank Prev. CPI 0.1/1.3 --- --- 0.2/1.8 CPIF 0.1/1.6 --- 1.5 0.2/2.1 CPIF ex. Energy 0.0/0.9 --- 0.9 01./1.2 • After a downside surprise in May we have lowered the forecast for CPIF ex energy during the summer, our estimate is in line with the Riksbank. Energy prices have continued to rise and revision to headline inflation this summer is smaller while the forecast towards the year-end has been revised slightly higher.
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