City of Dallas Planning Commission TUESDAY, February 09 7:00 P.M

AGENDA City of Dallas Planning Commission TUESDAY, February 09 7:00 p.m. Via RingCentral

Planning 1. CALL TO ORDER Commission 2. ROLL CALL President David Shein 3. OATH OF OFFICE Vice President John Swanson 4. APPROVAL OF MINUTES - Regular meeting of January 12, 2021 Commissioner Chris Castelli 5. PUBLIC COMMENT – This is an opportunity for citizens to speak to items not on the agenda (3 minutes per person please.) Commissioner Carol Kowash 6. PUBLIC HEARINGS Commissioner  CPA 19-03 Economic Opportunity Analysis Andy Groh APPLICANT: City of Dallas Commissioner Tory Banford  CUP 20-01- 172 SW Birch St.-detached garage in an industrial zone

Commissioner APPLICANT: Regan Smith John Schulte 7. OTHER BUSINESS Staff  New Year reminder about Procedures, Conflicts of Interest, etc. Planning Director Scott Whyte 8. COMMISSIONER COMMENTS

City Attorney Lane Shetterly 9. STAFF UPDATES a. Local Wetlands Inventory/Special meeting—Chase Ballew Planner b. Local Landmarks Register –Margie Pearce Chase Ballew c. HB 2001 amendments workshop 3/9/21 Recording Secretary Margie Pearce 10. ADJOURN

Next Meeting will be on March 09, 2021

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For questions or comments on the agenda, contact: Scott Whyte at 503.831.3565 or [email protected]

City of Dallas Planning Commission Via Ring Central January 12, 2021 - 7:00 p.m.

DRAFT

MINUTES

1 CALL TO ORDER

2 Vice President David Shein called the meeting to order at 7:00 p.m.

3 There was a moment of silence in honor of long time Commissioner Bob Wilson’s passing.

4 ROLL CALL

5 Commissioners Present: Chris Castelli, Andy Groh, David Shein, Tory Banford, Carol 6 Kowash, and John Swanson.

7 Absent:

8 Staff present: City Attorney Lane Shetterly, Planning Director Scott Whyte, 9 Planner Chase Ballew, and Recording Secretary Margie Pearce. Page 1 of 191

10 ELECTION OF OFFICERS: 11 Mr. Shein called for nominations for the office of President. Mr. Andy Groh nominated David 12 Shein. There were no other nominations. The commissioners voted unanimously for Mr. Shein as 13 president. Mr. Groh nominated Mr. Chris Castelli for the office of Vice-President. Mr. Castelli

14 formally declined. Ms. Carol Kowash nominated Mr. John Swanson for the office of Vice 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 15 President. The commissioners voted unanimously for Mr. Swanson as Vice President 16 17 APPROVAL OF MINUTES 18 President David Shein presented the minutes of the regular meeting of December 8, 2020. 19 Commissioner Andy Groh moved to approve the minutes as presented and Commissioner Chris 20 Castelli seconded the motion. The motion passed unanimously. 21 22 PUBLIC HEARING 23 24 VAR 20-03-616 SE Syron Street 25 APPLICANT- Mike and Nancy Ferguson 26

Dallas Planning Commission Page 2 – January 12, 2021

27 Mr. Shein opened the public hearing at 7:11 pm.

28 STAFF REPORT: 29 Mr. Chase Ballew presented the staff report using a power point. The applicants own two 30 adjacent residential lots, one of which (616 SE Syron St.) contains a dwelling and the other (608 31 SE Syron St.) is undeveloped. The applicant proposes to construct a detached garage on the 32 undeveloped lot, and has filed applications for lot consolidation and variance. The lot 33 consolidation has been approved administratively by the city (#PLA-20-03) but has not yet been 34 finalized or recorded. The variance application is the subject of this proceeding. 35 The proposed detached garage is 21 feet in height where the height limit for a detached accessory 36 structure is 15 feet. The proposed detached garage is also not set back behind the house as 37 required, and results in two driveways serving the property where only one is allowed. The 38 applicants are requesting the following variances: Accessory Building Height, Street Side-Yard 39 Setbacks, and Driveway Access. 40 Mr. Ballew stated staff recommended the Variance application be approved with three 41 conditions. 42 43 APPLICANT PRESENTATION: 44 Mike Ferguson, 616 SE Syron Street, property owner. Mr. Ferguson stated he did not have much 45 to add. He said the combined lot size would be about 12,600.00 sqft. He also talked about the old 46 growth Oak tree on the property line, which presented building challenges due to size and 47 extensive root growth. 48 49 PUBLIC TESTIMONY: Page 2 of 191 50 Michael Barnes, 643 SE Deschutes Ave, neighbor, stated he was in favor of the variances. 51 52 COMMISSIONER QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION: 53 There was a discussion that included minimum lot density, driveway width and length, and who 54 decides how tall a structure can be.

55 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 56 Mr. Shein closed the public hearing at 7:36 pm.

57 Mr. Tory Banford moved to approve the variance with the conditions stated in the staff report. 58 Ms. Kowash seconded the motion. With a roll call vote, VAR 20-03 was approved unanimously.

59 PUBLIC HEARING: 60 61 VAR 20-04: 1554 SE Greening Drive 62 APPLICANT: Robert Herndon & Jodie Jones. 63 64 Mr. Shein opened the public hearing at 7:38pm. 65 66 STAFF REPORT: 67 Mr. Ballew presented the staff report using a power point. The applicants own property formerly 68 composed of two adjacent residential lots, which were consolidated into one lot in 2019 (#PLA- 69 19-02). The applicant proposes to construct a detached garage on the undeveloped portion of the 70 consolidated lot, and has filed application for variance. The proposed detached garage is 23 feet 71 in height where the height limit is 15 feet. The proposed detached garage is also not set back Dallas Planning Commission Page 3 – January 12, 2021

72 behind the house as required, and results in two driveways serving the property where only one 73 is allowed. Therefore, in order to construct the proposed structure, the applicant requests to vary 74 the following standards: Accessory Building Height, Street Side-Yard Setbacks, and Driveway 75 Access. 76 Mr. Ballew stated staff recommended the variance application be approved with two conditions. 77 78 APPLICANT PRESENTATION: 79 Ms. Jodie Jones spoke to the commission about how the topography of the lot negates building 80 anywhere else and because the buildable area is lower than the street elevation, the visual height 81 of the garage would be less than the 23’ actual height. 82 83 PUBLIC TESTIMONY: 84 There was none. 85 86 COMMISSIONER QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION: 87 Ms. Kowash stated that Ms. Jones’ first name was spelled incorrectly in the staff report. 88 89 Mr. Shein closed the public hearing at 7:51pm. 90 91 Mr. Groh moved to approve the variance with the conditions stated in the staff report. Mr. John 92 Swanson seconded the motion. With a roll call vote, VAR 20-04 was approved unanimously. 93 94 OTHER BUSINESS

95 There was none. Page 3 of 191

96 COMMISSIONER COMMENTS

97 There were none.

98 STAFF COMMENTS 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

99 There were none.

100

101

102 The meeting adjourned at 7:57pm.

APPROVED:

______

President Date 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 4 of 191

CITY OF DALLAS PLANNING COMMISSION STAFF REPORT

MEETING DATE: FEBRUARY 9, 2021 STAFF REPORT DATE: FEBRUARY 2, 2021 PROCEEDING: PUBLIC HEARING

TOPIC: ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS

APPLICATION TYPE: TYPE IV LEGISLATIVE AMENDMENT OF THE DALLAS COMPREHENSIVE PLAN, CITY CASE FILE CPA 19-03 APPLICANT: CITY OF DALLAS

SUMMARY: This proposal is to amend Chapter 2 (Volumes 1 and 2) and Chapter 6 (Volume 2) of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. The proposed amendment is intended to incorporate data, policies and actions identified for Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) as described in Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) 660, Division 9. This proposal responds specifically to Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9 (Economy) and Goal 14 (Urbanization) as described under OAR 660-015-0000(9) and 660-015- 0000(14) respectively.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

On August 5, 2019, Dallas City Council initiated proceedings for the amendment as described. Below is a summary of activity that followed.

Page 5 of 191  On December 12, 2019, Planning Commission, via workshop, received an EOA program overview from staff;

 On April 20, 2020, City Council, via workshop, received a timeline and description of necessary tasks concerning the scope of work identified for EOA. On this day, staff

introduced Beth Goodman of ECONorthwest (Consultant) as lead consultant; 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

 On May 19, 2020,* the EOA Technical Advisory Committee (Committee) met for the first time to discuss all tasks required for EOA production and to comment on Dallas’ strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for economic development;

 On June 16, 2020,* the Committee met again to review the results of the Buildable Land Inventory (BLI) map and corresponding data and discussed preliminary data on economic trends analysis and employment growth. The Committee also identified and discussed Dallas’ competitive advantages and disadvantages, especially for target industries;

 On July 21, 2020,* the Committee met to discuss economic trends analysis and employment growth in further detail, together with a refinement of competitive advantages and disadvantages. After finalizing the list of target industries, the Committee provided feedback on safe-harbor growth rate assumptions identified by the Consultant for forecasting growth. Also on this date, the consultant provided preliminary analysis showing Dallas to have a projected surplus for Industrial and projected shortfall for Commercial;

 On August 3, 2020, City Council, via workshop, received a progress report from staff and the Consultant on work completed to date with the Committee. At the same meeting staff / Consultant sought additional feedback from City Council on BLI data, Employment Trends, Potential Growth Industries, Preliminary Employment Forecast Growth Rate percentages and Land Sufficiency Analysis numbers (20-year forecast);

 On August 18, 2020,* the Committee met again to proceed with tasks identified. At this meeting, the Committee concurred with the Council preference for the 1.61% safe-harbor growth rate assumption, considered key for determining Land Sufficiency Analysis (20- year forecast). The Consultant then facilitated a discussion about proposed draft policies identified to Volume 1, Chapter 2 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, and potential actions necessary to achieve the city’s vision for economic development;

 On August 26, 2020, the Planning Commission, via special meeting held at Dallas City Park, received an update from staff and the Consultant on work completed to date with input received from the Committee and City Council. On this date, the Commission received draft changes proposed to Chapter 2, Volume 1, of the Comprehensive Plan (draft policies). The Commission provided additional comments in response to the draft items.

 On October 27, 2020,* the Committee met to discuss the full 84-page draft EOA document produced by the Consultant. The Committee also discussed revisions identified to an updated draft of Chapter 2 Vol. 1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan (Version 2). The Consultant also sought committee input in response Recommend Actions shown to pages 45 through 50 of the draft EOA document. The Committee discussed and recommended certain changes to draft actions identified to these pages.

 On November 2, 2020, City Council, via workshop, received a progress report via staff and the Consultant. On this date, staff / Consultant sought feedback on draft policies identified to Page 6 of 191 Chapter 2 Vol. 1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan and on the draft EOA document (full) before initiating the public hearing process. Staff / Consultant made changes accordingly.

 On, December 8, 2020,* the Committee met to consider a revise and finalize version of the full EOA document / draft policies. The Consultant inquired if Committee members had any final recommendations or edits. The Committee asked questions for clarification 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf purposes but there were no comments or concerns conveyed in response to the draft EOA and draft policies. The Consultant and staff then informed the Committee of final steps and how a final hearings-ready EOA would be produce by the end of the month.

 On December 8, 2020 the Planning Commission, via workshop, met to review the same finalized version of the full EOA document / draft policies. The Commission discussed and recommended certain changes to draft policies as shown. The Consultant / staff then informed the Commission of next steps and production of a final hearings-ready EOA document by the end of the month, along with changes to Volume 2 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, intended to eliminate obsolete data from the EOA of 1998.

 On December 30, 2020, the Consultant produced a hearings-ready draft EOA (Exhibit 1). On this day, the hearings-ready draft EOA document was posted to the city website, along hearings-ready text amendments to Chapter 2 of Volume 1 (Exhibit 2.A) and Chapter 2 of Volume 2 (Exhibit 2.B) and Chapter 6 of Volume 2 (Exhibit 2.C).

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 2  On January 4, 2021, the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) received required notification of the proposed Comprehensive Plan amendment commensurate with the timing required (35-days) prior to the first public hearing at which public testimony or new evidence is to be received. All hearings-ready documents (Exhibits 1 and 2.A, 2.B & 2.C) were uploaded to the DLCD website on this day.

 On January 19, 2021, the city issued required written notice to all affected government agencies, including Polk County and Dallas School District, pursuant Section 4.1.050.D. of the Dallas Development Code (DDC). The city also issued written notice to all Committee members, including representatives from Pacific Power, the State of Oregon, SEDCOR and persons who requested notice from the city concerning this proposal. Written notice (and DLCD notice) identifies the first evidentiary hearing before the Planning Commission on February 9, 2021, and the second hearing before the City Council on April 19, 2021.

 On January 20, 2021, pursuant to Section 4.1.050.D. of the DDC, the Itemizer-Observer newspaper published required notice of said public hearings.

*Minutes of the City of Dallas EOA-TAC Meeting Schedule / Minutes – Final Update of December 9, 2020 (Exhibit 3) provide additional detail.

The public hearing on February 9 is the first of two hearings required by the DDC as described in Section 4.1.050 (the Type IV Legislative Procedure). The second hearing is scheduled to occur before the City Council on April 19, 2021, via same public notice. Section 4.1.010.B.4 of the DDC explains how the Type IV procedure applies to legislative matters that involve the creation, revision, or large-scale implementation of public policy, including Comprehensive Plan amendments.

Staff refer to the EOA project introduction (pages 1 through 3 of the hearings-ready EOA document) Page 7 of 191 dated December 2020 (Exhibit 1) for additional background information. The public hearing on February 9 is the first step for adoption of proposed legislative amendments. All hearings-ready documents, including text amendments identified to Chapter 2 of Volume 1 (Exhibit 2.A) and Chapter 2 of Volume 2 (Exhibit 2.B) and Chapter 6 of Volume 2 (Exhibit 2.C) are subject to consideration.

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf DECISION MAKING CRITERIA

Legislative Amendment approval criteria are found in Chapter 4 of the DDC under Section 4.1.050.G. This section calls for a recommendation by the Planning Commission and a decision by the City Council, based on the following factors:

1. Approval of the request is consistent with the Statewide Planning Goals; and

2. Approval of the request is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan; and

3. The property and affected area is presently provided with adequate public facilities and services, including transportation, sewer and water systems, to support the use, or such facilities and services are provided for in adopted City plans and can be provided concurrently with the development of the property.

Staff facts and findings in response to these criteria are as follows:

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 3

1. Approval of the request is consistent with the Statewide Planning Goals.

Facts and Findings: There are a total of nineteen Statewide Planning Goals. Of these goals, Goal 9, titled Economic Development, is the primary goal of consideration in review of this proposal. The fundamental purpose of Goal 9 is to make sure that a local government plans for economic development. Staff refer to and incorporate the EOA document (Exhibit 1) for additional information pertaining to Goal 9 and for findings in support of Criterion No. 1. Rules that implement Goal 9 are described in Chapter 600, Division 9 of Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) and EOA is specifically mentioned in OAR 660-009-0015. The proposed hearings-ready EOA document of December 2020 was produced to meet requirements of Goal 9 and all implementing administrative rules.

EOA provides a factual basis for updating the Economy Element of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan that is found in Chapter 2, Volumes 1 and 2. Existing policies within Volume 1 of Chapter 2 were created in concert with the past EOA that dates back to year 1998. Volume 2 of Chapter 2 contains background data from the past EOA. Background data from year 1998 is also found in Chapter 6, Volume 2 (Urban Growth Management). As the 20-year forecast period from 1998 is over, respective data are obsolete. The proposed amendment establishes a new 20-year forecast period and said chapters are to be amended accordingly.

Goal 14, titled Urbanization, explains how local urban jurisdictions are required to provide for an orderly and efficient transition from rural to urban land use, to accommodate urban population and urban employment inside urban growth boundaries (UGBs) and to provide for livable communities. Goal 14 also describes the purpose and function of UBGs. In this case,

the hearings-ready EOA document has determined that Dallas does not have enough Page 8 of 191 commercial land to accommodate employment growth (over the next 20-years) but it can accommodate the deficit identified within the existing UGB through the following actions:*  Plan or zone changes to industrial or residential land;  Accommodate complementary commercial employment in industrial areas; and

 Redevelop existing commercial land to allow more employment. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf * See EOA page 42, for additional detail on this topic (Land Sufficiency and Conclusions).

In response to Goal 14, staff finds the current UGB to provide sufficient area for future urban employment and livable communities, as the goal describes, through implementation of actions as described in the proposed EOA.

Goal 10: While not the focus of consideration for this legislative amendment, Goal 10, related to housing needs, was recently addressed via Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) conducted by the city in 2019. The adopted HNA of 2019 and related Comprehensive Plan amendments (specific to Chapter 3, Volumes 1 and 3) have since received Post Amendment Plan Approval by DLCD and are now part of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. For reasons identified in this report, staff finds the proposed EOA to have no impact on the ability to satisfy Goal 10 (see Adopted HNA of 2019 vs. Proposed EOA of 2020).

Goal 1: Staff notes that Goal 1, Citizen Involvement, has been addressed primarily through input received from the EOA Technical Advisory Committee and via public open house, conducted virtually from November 2, 2020, to the end of December (eight weeks total). In

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 4 response to Goal 1, staff refer to and incorporate Appendix C of the EOA titled Results of the Virtual Open House of the EOA. Staff also refer to and incorporate Exhibit 3 (Final EOA- TAC Schedule / Minutes document).

Conclusion: Staff finds the proposal consistent with applicable Statewide Planning Goals 1, 9, 10 and 14.

2. Approval of the request is consistent with the Comprehensive Plan.

Facts and Findings: Staff refer to and incorporate the EOA document (Exhibit 1) as facts and findings in support of Criterion No. 2. Where Goal 9 is the subject of consideration in response to Criterion No. 1, staff finds Chapter 2 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, titled A Sustainable Dallas Economy, to be the subject of consideration in response to Criterion No. 2. As stated above, this proposal is intended to amend Chapter 2 (Volumes 1 and 2) and Chapter 6 (Volume 2) of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. Through this amendment proposal, Chapter 2 is to be retitled “A Prosperous and Sustainable Dallas Economy.” Staff refer to Exhibit 2.A. for all proposed changes intended to Volume 1, Chapter 2 of Comprehensive Plan (goals and policies). Through this amendment proposal, the city’s overall economic goal is to be amended and read as follows:

The City’s overall economic goal is to prosper and sustain economic vitality in order to enhance the quality of life for all Dallas residents. This goal is best achieved by increasing economic opportunities without threatening environmental quality or eroding the region’s natural resource base.

To date, based on feedback received from the EOA-TAC, the Planning Commission and City Council, proposed changes to policies (Exhibit 2.A) are written in mandatory and permissive

context. There remains one more workshop before City Council (set for March 1, 2021, non- Page 9 of 191 hearing) to finalize mandatory versus permissive direction identified to certain draft policies, showing the options [shall / should] or [shall / may]. On this topic, the significance is explained in Section 1.1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan (cited below):

Policies that are written in mandatory language (e.g., “shall,” “must,” will) are

mandatory in character: they must be followed when Dallas makes a quasi-judicial land 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf use decision. In cases where mandatory policies conflict, the City Council may balance these policies in making a decision. Policies that are written in permissive language (e.g. “should,” may,” “encourage”) indicate the preferred direction of the City, but are not binding on the Council.

Staff also observe several existing policies under Chapter 6 of the Comprehensive Plan that speak to management of land within the UGB and the need for maintaining a continuous 20- year supply of land for each broad land use category (Policy #2 of 6.1). Existing policies in Chapter 6 (Volume 1) are not subject to change with this amendment proposal as the UGB is not subject to expansion through this proposed legislative amendment.

Staff Comparative Analysis – Adopted HNA of 2019 vs. Proposed EOA of 2020: In preparing this report, staff reviewed adopted policy changes to Chapter 3 (titled Livable Residential Neighborhoods) and found no policies that contradict draft policies proposed for Chapter 2 (Exhibit 2.A). Where the HNA of 2019 had forecasted a need for maintaining a 20-year supply of land for future housing (all types) in all areas of the city UGB as planned for Residential, the proposed EOA of 2020 has forecasted a need for maintaining a 20-year supply of land intended for future employment, in all areas of the city UGB as planned for

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 5 Commercial and Industrial. Area and location of the Dallas UGB has not changed since adoption of the HNA of 2019 and the BLI prepared for this EOA does not include the acknowledged map amendment approved by the city last year for JENRE in CPA 20-1 (a plan change from Industrial to Residential).

As stated above in response to Criterion No. 1, Dallas does not have enough commercial land to accommodate employment growth over the next 20-years, but can accommodate the deficit identified within the existing UGB through implementing actions (explained in Land Sufficiency and Conclusions). Comparatively, results of the HNA of 2019 show the current UGB to contain 678 acres of buildable residential land, and that residential land need is forecasted to be 365 acres for the next 20 years. While Dallas has a surplus of available Residential land within the UGB, data from the HNA of 2019 shows Dallas to be deficient in medium density housing types (22 acres at the time). To ensure medium density housing is provided, the HNA of 2019 calls for consideration of the following: 1) Legislative zoning map amendments to the official zoning map that allow some RL zoned properties within the UGB to become RM, consistent with siting policies, and 2) Encourage a mix of housing types in RM and RH zones. (From 3.10 of Chapter 3, Vol. 1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan).

To the above, staff finds no contradictory or conflicting methods identified for implementing respective deficiencies identified in the adopted HNA of 2019 or the proposed EOA of 2020. Staff also confirm the BLI component of the EOA (Exhibit 46 of the EOA) to encompass only areas of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map that are planned for Commercial and Industrial. Staff also observe the BLI for EOA to include partially vacant areas of the LaCreole Node that are planned for Mixed Use (inclusive of commercial). Comparatively, the BLI prepared for the HNA of 2019 includes the same partially vacant areas of the LaCreole Node that are planned for Mixed Use. While this might appear to be an overlap / double-count, staff observe the plan for Mixed Use in LaCreole to allow commercial

development on the ground and residential above. In short, the BLI for EOA records vacant Page 10 of 191 ground space (as planned for the commercial component of mixed-use) while the BLI for HNA has recorded vacant airspace (above) for the residential component.

Conclusion: Staff finds the proposal to be consistent with the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, as amended by the ordinance adopting CPA 18-01 (the HNA of 2019).

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 3. The property and affected area is presently provided with adequate public facilities and services, including transportation, sewer and water systems, to support the use, or such facilities and services are provided for in adopted City plans and can be provided concurrently with the development of the property.

Facts and Findings: Staff refer to and incorporate the EOA document (Exhibit 1) as facts and findings in support of Criterion No. 3. The proposed legislative amendment is not intended to evaluate any one property or particular area of the city for adequacy of public facilities and services. This proposed Comprehensive Plan amendment does not amend the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Map or Zoning Map and does not propose UGB modification or expansion. Staff observe page 41 of the EOA document to include limited analysis identified by rule to assess the short-term supply of employment land, based on criteria that land can be ready for construction within one year. Staff also observe the citied rule (OAR660-009- 005(10)) to be applicable to cities located within a metropolitan planning organization (MPO) which Dallas is not. As the EOA document explains, considering a short-term supply of land is useful to a city like Dallas, as it helps the city understand where there are infrastructure deficiencies that may be preventing development.

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 6 Conclusion: As the proposed Comprehensive Plan amendment does not amend the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Map or Zoning Map and does not propose UGB modification or expansion, staff therefore finds Criterion No. 3 to be not applicable.

Summary Finding and Conclusion: Staff finds the proposed Legislative Amendment to comply with all applicable approval criteria identified in Section 4.1.050.G of the DDC.

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING RULE AND 2030 VISION FINDINGS

Transportation Planning Rule (TPR) findings: According to Section 4.7.020 of the Dallas Development Code, Legislative Amendments are policy decisions made by City Council. Section 4.7.020 also requires proposed Legislative Amendments to conform to the TPR as described in OAR 660-012-0060. In response to the TPR, staff observes the scope of work as mentioned herein for findings of no significant impact on existing transportation facilities throughout the city. As explained in response to Criterion No. 3 (above) EOA scope does not encompass a Comprehensive Plan Map, Zoning Map or UGB amendment.

2030 Dallas Vision findings: While not specifically cited as criteria in Section 4.7.020, staff also finds the proposed Legislative Amendment to be consistent with the 2030 Dallas Vision. Below are relevant vision statements:

 Dallas has a proactive comprehensive plan that prioritizes the city’s future growth and development, preserves its small town identity, and enhances its quality of life.

 Dallas’ new industrial and commercial development supports the city’s growth and economic advancement resulting in new businesses and jobs.

Page 11 of 191 Overall Conclusion: In addition to satisfying CPA approval criteria, staff concludes that the proposed amendment conforms to the TPR and 2030 Dallas Vision.

WRITTEN TESTIMONY 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf None. Required public hearing notices identified a deadline of January 29, 2021, to submit written testimony in time to be included as part of the staff report. Public notice also explained how written testimony received after January 29, would be forwarded to the Commission at the hearing. To date, the city has not received written testimony in response to required notices, including the 35-day notice as required by DLCD.

RECOMMENDATION

According to Section 4.1.050.H of the DDC, the Commission is to vote on and prepare a recommendation to the City Council to approve, approve with modifications, approve with conditions, deny the proposed change, or adopt an alternative. For CPA 19-03, staff recommends the Commission vote in response to a motion that recommends the City Council approve the Economic Opportunities Analysis document (Exhibit 1) in addition to the draft changes identified to Chapters 2 and 6 of Dallas Comprehensive Plan as shown in Exhibit 2.

Any specific word changes (to policies or otherwise) should be made clear for the record. With Planning Commission agreement to any change, staff will convey the recommended change to

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 7 Council for consideration as part of the written Planning Commission Order. The Commission Order will be forward to the City Council along with all documents of record.

EXHIBITS:

1. City of Dallas – Economic Opportunities Analysis – December 2020.*

2. Draft Legislative Text Changes to the Comprehensive Plan Chapters. A. Draft changes to Chapter 2, Vol. 1 of the Comprehensive Plan (December 2020); B. Draft changes to Chapter 2, Vol. 2 of the Comprehensive Plan (December 2020); C. Draft changes to Chapter 6, Vo1.2 of the Comprehensive Plan (December 2020).

3. Final EOA-TAC Schedule / Minutes document.

*Appendix C of the EOA titled Results of the Virtual Open House of the EOA, is not shown to the hearings-ready EOA document of December 2020. Appendix C is expected to be ready and available prior to commencement of the public hearing on February 9.

Page 12 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

Staff Report for CPA 19-03 – Economic Opportunities Analysis - Hearing of February 9, 2021 - Pg. 8

City of Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis

December 2020

Prepared for: City of Dallas

Draft Report

Page 13 of 191

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

KOIN Center 222 SW Columbia Street Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97201 503-222-6060

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Page 14 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Acknowledgments

ECONorthwest prepared this report for the City of Dallas. ECONorthwest and the City thank the many people who helped to develop the Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis.

Advisory Committee Jody Christensen Mitch Teal Alex Paraskevas Gene Henshaw Diana Knous Marlene Cox Randy Iott David Shein Tim Ray Jeremey Santee-Malloy Bob Tucker Jason Thornton Brandon Schmidgall Planning Commission Chuck Lerwick, Chair Andy Groh David Shein, Vice Chair Tory Banford John Swanson Christopher Castelli Carol Kowash

City Council Brian Dalton, Mayor Larry Briggs Jennie Rummell Terry Crawford

Kenneth Woods, Jr. Paul Trahan Page 15 of 191 Kelly Gabliks Jackie Lawson Michael Schilling Bill Hahn

State of Oregon

Leigh McIlvaine, Economic Development 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Specialist, DLCD

City of Dallas Scott Whyte, Director of Planning and Brian Latta, City Manager Building Lane Shetterly, City Attorney Chase Ballew, City Planner

ECONorthwest Consulting Staff Beth Goodman, Project Director Margaret Raimann, Technical Manager

Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... I

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1 BACKGROUND ...... 1 FRAMEWORK FOR AN ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS ...... 2 ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT ...... 3

2. FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH ...... 4 FACTORS THAT AFFECT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ...... 4 SUMMARY OF THE EFFECT OF NATIONAL, STATE, AND REGIONAL TRENDS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN DALLAS ...... 9 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN DALLAS AND POLK COUNTY ...... 14 DALLAS’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE ...... 20

3. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND SITE NEEDS ...... 25 FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND ...... 25 TARGET INDUSTRIES ...... 31 SITE NEEDS FOR POTENTIAL GROWTH INDUSTRIES ...... 33

4. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY ...... 35 LAND BASE ...... 36 BUILDABLE AREA STATUS ...... 36 VACANT BUILDABLE LAND ...... 38 SHORT-TERM SUPPLY OF LAND ...... 41 Page 16 of 191 5. LAND SUFFICIENCY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 42 LAND SUFFICIENCY ...... 42 CONCLUSIONS ...... 43 RECOMMENDED ACTIONS ...... 44

APPENDIX A. NATIONAL, STATE, AND REGIONAL AND LOCAL TRENDS ...... 50 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf NATIONAL TRENDS ...... 50 STATE TRENDS ...... 58 REGIONAL AND LOCAL TRENDS ...... 63

APPENDIX B. BUILDABLE LANDS INVENTORY ...... 78 METHODS AND DEFINITIONS ...... 78

APPENDIX C. RESULTS OF THE VIRTUAL OPEN HOUSE...... 85

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Page 17 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Executive Summary

This report presents an economic opportunities analysis (EOA) for Dallas, consistent with the requirements of Statewide Planning Goal 9 and the Goal 9 Administrative Rule (OAR 660-009). Goal 9 describes the EOA as

“an analysis of the community's economic patterns, potentialities, strengths, and deficiencies as they relate to state and national trends” and states that “a principal determinant in planning for major industrial and commercial developments should be the competitive advantage of the region within which the developments would be located.”

The primary goals of the EOA are to (1) project the amount of land needed to accommodate the future employment growth within Dallas between 2021 and 2041, (2) evaluate the existing employment land supply within the city to determine if it is adequate to meet that need, and (3) to fulfill state planning requirements for a twenty-year supply of employment land.

How much buildable employment land does Dallas currently have?

Dallas has 682 total acres in its commercial or industrial plan designations. Of these 682 acres, about 257 acres (38%) are unconstrained and buildable within its UGB. Of Dallas’s buildable Page 18 of 191 acres, 44 (17%) are designated for commercial uses and 213 (83%) are designated for industrial uses.

How much growth is Dallas planning for?

Goal 9 requires that cities provide for an adequate supply of commercial and industrial sites 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf consistent with plan policies. To meet this requirement, Dallas needs an estimate of the amount of commercial and industrial land that will be needed over the 2021 to 2041 planning period.

Dallas’s employment base is 6,465 employees in 2021. Dallas is forecast to have 8,905 employees by 2041. This is an increase of 2,440 jobs over the planning period.

Most new employment will require commercial and industrial lands, accounting for more than 90% of new employment growth (2,220 employees) over the 2021 and 2041 planning period. Dallas will accommodate new government employees (i.e., 220 of the 2,440 employees) in existing government buildings and areas designated for public use.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis i How much land will be required for employment?

The forecast for land needed to accommodate employment growth in Dallas shows that the growth of 2,220 new employees will result in demand for about 189 gross acres of commercial and industrial employment lands.

Does Dallas have enough land to accommodate employment growth?

Dallas has sufficient land to accommodate demand for industrial employment in the Dallas UGB, but it does not have sufficient land to accommodate demand for commercial employment.

Based on land demand, Dallas is forecast to have a 163-gross-acre surplus of industrial land and a 94-gross-acre deficit of commercial land. While Dallas has a substantial surplus of industrial land, the deficit of commercial land suggests that Dallas will need to carefully consider actions to accommodate the deficit within the existing UGB.

What are the conclusions of the EOA?

within the existing UGB. Dallas has a deficit of about 94 acres of commercial land need Page 19 of 191 for development over the 20-year planning period. Dallas does not need to immediately address that deficit of commercial land need. Dallas would do well to gradually address the commercial land need over time through identifying opportunities for commercial land development in areas of five to ten (or even 20) acres at a time.

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf The City should carefully consider whether and how to address the commercial land deficit in the context of other community policies. For example, existing Policy 1 of Chapter 2.3 describes the need for preserving prime industrial sites to provide a choice among sites for new industrial development prior to actual demand. While Dallas has a surplus of industrial land that could conceivably change to commercial, reducing the commercial deficit in part, certain industrial properties are observed to have ideal access to rail, arterial streets and utilities constructed to provide higher levels of service

1 As of the date of this document, City of Dallas has not adopted a local wetland inventory (LWI) or conducted environmental assessment of certain properties within the UGB that are vacant and planned for industrial. The draft LWI of September 2020 indicates the potential presence of wetlands on certain properties planned for industrial. Only delineated wetlands, on record with the Department of State Lands, were removed from the buildable lands inventory (BLI). Potential presence of wetlands identified by the draft LWI were not removed from the BLI. Accordingly, the total amount of surplus industrial land (163 acres) is likely less.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis ii capacity. Changing prime industrial sites to a commercial plan designation could impact the limited surplus shown for larger size parcels that are planned and zoned industrial. . Dallas’s vacant commercial and industrial land varies in size to accommodate a wide range of development opportunities, but few properties of significant size remain to accommodate targeted growth industries. Dallas’s unconstrained vacant commercial and industrial land is in a wide range of site sizes, including six industrial sites larger than 10 acres, as well as many sites smaller than two acres. Dallas’s land base provides opportunities for a wide range of development on industrial land. As Exhibit 18 shows, Dallas has only two vacant lots between 25 and 50 acres in size. As certain target growth industries are dependent on large parcel size (25 to 50 acres), Dallas should consider preserving large acreage parcels that are planned industrial. Dallas has fewer opportunities for commercial development larger than two acres, most of which are located in the Master Plan Nodal Areas. What are the key recommendations?

The broadest recommended action is to update Chapter 2, Volume 2 of the Comprehensive Plan, which has not been updated in more than a decade. ECONorthwest recommends that the Planning Commission and City Council review the revised policies and, after making additional necessary changes to these policies, adopt them in conjunction with the EOA document.

This document also provides recommended actions for Dallas based on the analysis and conclusions in this report.

Page 20 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis iii 1. Introduction

This report presents an economic opportunities analysis (EOA) for the City of Dallas. The purpose of an EOA is to develop information as a basis for policies that capitalize on Dallas’s opportunities and help address the City’s challenges. The EOA includes technical analysis to address a range of questions that Dallas faces in managing its commercial and industrial land. For example, the EOA includes an employment forecast that describes how much growth Dallas should plan for over the 2021 to 2041 period and identifies the amount and type of employment land necessary to accommodate growth in Dallas over that period. The EOA also includes an inventory of commercial and industrial land within Dallas’s urban growth boundary (UGB) to provide information about the amount of land available to accommodate employment growth.

This EOA complies with the requirements of Statewide Planning Goal 9, the Goal 9 Administrative Rule (OAR 660 Division 9), and the court decisions that have interpreted them. Goal 9 requires cities to identify the characteristics of sites needed to accommodate industrial and other employment uses (OAR 660-009-0025[1]) over the 20-year planning period. This approach could be characterized as a site-based approach that projects land need based on the forecast for employment growth, the City’s economic development objectives, and the specific needs of target industries. Background

The City of Dallas last significantly updated its Comprehensive Plan in 1998. Chapter 2, Volume Page 21 of 191 2 of the Comprehensive Plan describes the data sources and methods used in 1998 to project employment needs to the year 2020. Substantial changes have occurred in the national and regional economy since 1998 that have implications for economic growth in Dallas. The 2020 EOA accounts for recent employment trends and changes in market conditions. A new set of data sources and methods are used to project employment needs to the year 2041. Dallas wants 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf to develop an economic opportunities analysis (EOA) to describe current conditions in the city and forecast potential future changes in economic activity in Dallas within the context of the Mid-Willamette Valley.

The purpose of the EOA was to develop a factual base to provide the City with information about current economic conditions. This factual basis provides information necessary for updating the City’s economic development Comprehensive Plan policies. This report identifies opportunities to meet the City’s economic development objectives and develop Comprehensive Plan policies and implementation strategies that capitalize on the City’s comparative advantages and address areas of economic weakness.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 1 The EOA provides information that the City can use to identify and capitalize on its economic opportunities. It also provides information essential to addressing the City’s challenges in managing economic development. These challenges include, but are not limited to:

. Ensuring availability of large industrial parcels for developing target growth industries; . Creating more commercial-zoned land for developing businesses that provide needed goods and services, in addition to jobs; and . Incentivizing the development of land already planned for commercial/industrial but may be in need of local infrastructure. The EOA draws on information from numerous data sources, such as the Oregon Employment Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S. Census. The EOA also uses information from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy developed by the Mid-Willamette Valley Community Development Partnership Board (June 2018).

In addition, ECONorthwest and the City of Dallas conducted a virtual open house, which included a summary of the results of the EOA and questions for open house participants about economic development in Dallas. The open house was conducted virtually (i.e., on-line) rather than in person because of the challenges of meeting in person as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the open house are presented in Appendix C. Framework for an Economic Opportunities Analysis Page 22 of 191 The content of this report is designed to meet the requirements of Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9 and the administrative rule that implements Goal 9 (OAR 660-009). The analysis in this report is designed to conform to the requirements for an EOA in OAR 660-009 as amended.

1. Economic Opportunities Analysis (OAR 660-009-0015). The Economic Opportunities 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Analysis (EOA) requires communities to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand in the planning area based on information about national, state, regional, county, or local trends; identify the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate projected employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses; include an inventory of vacant and developed lands within the planning area designated for industrial or other employment use; and estimate the types and amounts of industrial and other employment uses likely to occur in the planning area. Local governments are also encouraged to assess community economic development potential through a visioning or some other public input–based process in conjunction with state agencies. 2. Industrial and commercial development policies (OAR 660-009-0020). Cities are required to develop commercial and industrial development policies based on the EOA. Local comprehensive plans must state the overall objectives for economic development in the

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 2 planning area and identify categories or particular types of industrial and other employment uses desired by the community. Local comprehensive plans must also include policies that commit the city or county to designate an adequate number of employment sites of suitable sizes, types, and locations. The plan must also include policies to provide necessary public facilities and transportation facilities for the planning area. 3. Designation of lands for industrial and commercial uses (OAR 660-009-0025). Cities and counties must adopt measures to implement policies pursuant to OAR 660-009-0020. Appropriate implementation measures include amendments to plan and zone map designations, land use regulations, public facility plans, and transportation system plans. More specifically, plans must identify the approximate number, acreage, and characteristics of sites needed to accommodate industrial and other employment uses to implement plan policies and must designate serviceable land suitable to meet identified site needs. Organization of This Report

This report is organized as follows:

. Chapter 2. Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth summarizes historic economic trends that affect current and future economic conditions in Dallas, as well as Dallas’s competitive advantages for economic development. . Chapter 3. Employment Growth and Site Needs presents a forecast for employment Page 23 of 191 growth in Dallas and describes potential growth industries and site needs for potential growth in industries. . Chapter 4. Buildable Lands Inventory presents a summary of the inventory of employment lands. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf . Chapter 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions compares the supply of and demand for buildable lands and presents key concluding recommendations for Dallas. This report also includes two appendices:

. Appendix A. National, State, and Regional and Local Trends . Appendix B. Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology . Appendix C: Results of the Virtual Open House

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 3 2. Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth

Dallas exists as part of the economy of the Mid-Willamette Valley region, which includes Polk, Linn, Yamhill, and Marion Counties. Its proximity to Salem, the largest city in the region, provides opportunities for the city’s residents and access to a larger labor pool for employers. The economic focus of Dallas consists of an industry mix of manufacturing, agricultural, and government services, as well as services for residents such as health-care and retail services. The city’s location in the Willamette Valley also makes Dallas a popular destination for visitors for agritourism and wineries.

This chapter describes the factors affecting economic growth in Dallas within the context of national and regional economic trends. The analysis presents the City’s competitive advantages for growing and attracting businesses, which forms the basis for identifying potential growth industries in Dallas. Factors that Affect Economic Development2

The fundamental purpose of Goal 9 is to make sure that a local government plans for economic development. The planning literature provides many definitions of economic development, both broad and narrow. Broadly,

“Economic development is the process of improving a community’s well-being through

job creation, business growth, and income growth (factors that are typical and reasonable Page 24 of 191 focus of economic development policy), as well as through improvements to the wider social and natural environment that strengthen the economy.”3

That definition acknowledges that a community’s well-being depends in part on narrower measures of economic well-being (e.g., jobs and income) and on other aspects of quality of life 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf (e.g., the social and natural environment). In practice, cities and regions trying to prepare an economic development strategy typically use a narrower definition of economic development; they take it to mean business development, job growth, and job opportunity. The assumptions are that:

. Business and job growth are contributors to and consistent with economic development, increased income, and increased economic welfare. From the municipal point of view, investment and resulting increases in property tax are important outcomes of economic development.

2 The information in this section is based on previous Goal 9 studies conducted by ECONorthwest, as well as “An Economic Development Toolbox: Strategies and Methods” published by the American Planning Association. 3 An Economic Development Toolbox: Strategies and Methods, Terry Moore, Stuart Meck, and James Ebenhoh, American Planning Association, Planning Advisory Service Report Number 541, October 2006.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 4 . The evaluation of trade-offs and balancing of policies to decide whether such growth is likely to lead to overall gains in well-being (on average and across all citizens and businesses in a jurisdiction) is something that decision makers do after an economic strategy has been presented to them for consideration. That logic is consistent with the tenet of the Oregon land use planning program: all goals matter, no goal dominates, and the challenge is to find a balance of conservation and development that is acceptable to a local government and the State. Goal 9 does not dominate, but it legitimizes and requires that a local government focus on the narrower view of economic development regarding economic variables.

In that context, a major part of local economic development policy is about local support for business development and job growth; that growth comes from the creation of new firms, the expansion of existing firms, and the relocation or retention of existing firms. Specifically, new small businesses are accounting for a larger share of the job growth in the United States. This shift toward a focus on entrepreneurship, innovation, and small businesses presents additional options for local support for economic development beyond firm attraction and retention. Thus, two key questions for economic development policy are, What are the factors that influence business and job growth, and what is the relative importance of each? This document addresses these questions in depth.

What Factors Matter?

Why do firms locate where they do? There is no single answer—different firms choose their

locations for different reasons. Key determinants of a location decision are a firm’s factors of Page 25 of 191 production. For example, a firm that spends a large portion of total costs on unskilled labor will be drawn to locations where labor is relatively inexpensive. A firm with large energy demands will give more weight to locations where energy is relatively inexpensive. In general, firms choose locations they believe will allow them to maximize net revenues: if demand for goods

and services are held roughly constant, then revenue maximization is approximated by cost 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf minimization.

The typical categories that economists use to describe a firm’s production function are:

. Labor. Labor is often the most important factor of production. Other things equal, firms look at productivity—labor output per dollar. Productivity can decrease if certain types of labor are in short supply, which increases the costs by requiring either more pay to acquire the labor that is available, the recruiting of labor from other areas, or the use of the less productive labor that is available locally. . Land. Demand for land depends on the type of firm. Manufacturing firms need more space and tend to prefer suburban locations where land is relatively less expensive and less difficult to develop. Warehousing and distribution firms need to locate close to interstate highways.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 5 . Local infrastructure. An important role of government is to increase economic capacity by improving quality and efficiency of infrastructure and facilities, such as roads, bridges, water and sewer systems, airport and cargo facilities, energy systems, and telecommunications. . Access to markets. Though part of infrastructure, transportation merits special attention. Firms need to move their product (either goods or services) to the market, and they rely on access to different modes of transportation to do this. . Materials. Firms producing goods, and even firms producing services, need various materials to develop products that they can sell. Some firms need natural resources (i.e., raw lumber) and others may need intermediate materials (i.e., dimensioned lumber). . Entrepreneurship. This input to production may be thought of as good management, or more broadly as a spirit of innovation, optimism, and ambition that distinguishes one firm from another, even though most of their other factor inputs may be quite similar. Entrepreneurial activity, even when unsuccessful, can offer information about the local market that other entrepreneurs can use in starting a new firm. Entrepreneurs are typically willing to take on more risk in uncertain markets, and a strengthened entrepreneurial environment can help to reduce that risk and uncertainty. 4 Entrepreneurs also tend to have more mobility than larger firms and are more likely to locate in areas with a strong entrepreneurial environment.5 To some degree, local governments can promote the high quality of life in an area to attract entrepreneurs, in addition to adopting regulations with minimal barriers—or at least, clear guidelines— for new small businesses. Page 26 of 191 The supply, cost, and quality of any of these factors depend on market factors: on conditions of supply and demand locally, nationally, and even globally. But they also depend on public policy. In general, public policy can affect these factors of production through:

. Regulation. Regulations protect the health and safety of a community and help maintain 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf quality of life. Overly burdensome regulations, however, can be disincentives for businesses to locate in a community. Simplified bureaucracies and straightforward regulations can reduce the burden on businesses and help them react quickly in a competitive marketplace. . Taxes. Firms tend to seek locations where they can optimize their after-tax profits. Tax rates are not a primary location factor—they matter only after businesses have made decisions based on labor, transportation, raw materials, and capital costs. The costs of these production factors are usually similar within a region. Therefore, differences in tax levels across communities within a region are more important in the location decision than are differences in tax levels between regions.

4 Tessa Conroy and Stephan Weiler. “Local and Social: Entrepreneurs, Information Network Effects, and Economic Growth” (2017). https://redi.colostate.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2017/05/gender_gia_Jun2017-2.pdf 5 Emil E. Malizia and Edward J. Feser. Understanding Local Economic Development. (1999).

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 6 . Financial incentives. Governments can offer firms incentives to encourage growth. Most types of financial incentives have little effect on firm location between regions. For manufacturing industries with significant equipment costs, however, property or investment tax credit or abatement incentives can play a significant role in location decisions. Incentives are more effective at redirecting growth within a region than they are at providing a competitive advantage between regions.

This discussion may make it appear that a location decision is based entirely on a straightforward accounting of costs, with the best location being the one with the lowest level of overall costs. Studies of economic development, however, have shown that location decisions depend on a variety of other factors that indirectly affect costs of production. These indirect factors include agglomerative economies (also known as industry clusters), quality of life, and innovative capacity.

. Industry clusters. Firms with similar business activities can realize operational savings when they congregate in a single location or region. Clustering can reduce costs by creating economies of scale for suppliers. For this reason, firms tend to locate in areas where there is already a presence of other firms engaged in similar or related activities. . Quality of life. A community that features many quality amenities, such as access to recreational opportunities, culture, low crime, good schools, affordable housing, and a clean environment can attract people simply because it is a nice place to be. A region’s quality of life can attract skilled workers, and if the amenities lure enough potential workers to the region, the excess labor supply pushes their wages down so that firms in

the region can find skilled labor for a relatively low cost. The characteristics of local Page 27 of 191 communities can affect the distribution of economic development within a region, with different communities appealing to different types of workers and business owners. Sometimes location decisions by business owners are based on an emotional or historical attachment to a place or set of amenities, without much regard for the cost of other

factors of production. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf . Innovative capacity. Increasing evidence suggests that a culture promoting innovation, creativity, flexibility, and adaptability is essential to keeping U.S. cities economically vital and internationally competitive. Innovation is particularly important in industries that require an educated workforce. High tech companies need to have access to new ideas typically associated with a university or research institute. In addition to innovations in research and development within firms or research institutions, firms may also draw on the innovative capacity of entrepreneurs in an area. These entrepreneurs may be former employees of the larger firm or businesses that relocated to an area because of the proximity to an industry cluster. Strong networks and communication between firms, research institutions, and entrepreneurs are key components to leveraging innovative capacity in an area.6 Local governments are well- equipped to help foster these networks through supporting economic development tools

6 Nancey Green Leigh and Edward Blakely. Planning Local Economic Development: Theory and Practice. 2013.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 7 such as small business assistance centers or incubation centers. Government can also be a key part of a community’s innovative culture, through the provision of services and regulation of development and business activities that are responsive to the changing needs of business.

How Important Are These Factors?

To understand how changes in public policies affect local job growth, economists have attempted to identify the importance for firms with different locational factors. They have used statistical models, surveys, and case studies to examine detailed data on the key factors that influence the business location decision.

Economic theory says that firms locate where they can reduce the costs of their factors of production (assuming demand for products and any other factors are held constant). Firms locate in regions where they have access to inputs that meet their quality standards at a relatively low cost. Because firms are different, the relative importance of different factors of production varies both across industries and, even more importantly, across firms.

No empirical analysis can completely quantify firm location factors because numerous methodological problems make any analysis difficult. For example, some would argue simplistically that firms would prefer locating to a region with a low tax rate to reduce tax expenses. However, the real issue is the value provided by the community for the taxes collected. Because taxes fund public infrastructure that firms need, such as roads, water, and sewer systems, regions with low tax rates may end up with poor infrastructure, making it less attractive to firms. When competing jurisdictions have roughly comparable public services Page 28 of 191 (type, cost, and quality) and quality of life, then tax rates (and tax breaks) can make a difference.

Further complicating any analysis is the fact that many researchers have used public expenditures as a proxy for infrastructure quality. But large expenditures on roads do not necessarily equal a quality road system. It is possible that the money has been spent 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf ineffectively and the road system is in poor condition.

An important aspect of this discussion is that the business function at a location matters more than a firm’s industry. A single company may have offices spread across cities, with headquarters located in a cosmopolitan metropolitan area, with the research and development divisions located near a concentration of universities, the back office in a suburban location, and manufacturing and distribution located in areas with cheap land and good interstate access.

The location decisions of businesses are primarily based on the availability and cost of labor, transportation, raw materials, and capital. The availability and cost of these production factors are usually similar within a region. Most economic development strategies available to local governments, however, only indirectly affect the cost of these primary location factors. Local governments can most easily affect tax rates, public services, and regulatory policies. Economists generally agree that these factors do affect economic development, but the effects on economic development are modest. Thus, most of the strategies available to local

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 8 governments have only a modest effect on the level and type of economic development in the community.

Local governments can provide support for new and existing small businesses through policies and programs that support entrepreneurship and innovation. The National League of Cities suggests strategies for local governments, including strong leadership from elected officials; better communication with entrepreneurs, especially regarding the regulatory environment for businesses in the community; and partnerships with colleges, universities, small business development centers, mentorship programs, community groups, businesses groups, and financial institutions.7

Local governments in Oregon also play a central role in the provision of buildable land through inclusion of lands in the urban growth boundary (UGB), as well as through the determination of plan designations and zoning and the provision of public services. Obviously, businesses need buildable land to locate or expand in a community. Providing buildable land alone is not sufficient to guarantee economic development in a community—market conditions must create demand for this land, and local factors of production must be favorable for business activity. In the context of expected economic growth and the perception of a constrained land supply in Dallas, the provision of buildable land has the potential to strongly influence the level and type of economic development in the city. The provision of buildable land is one of the most direct ways that Dallas can affect the level and type of economic development in the community. Summary of the Effect of National, State, and Regional Trends on Economic Development in Dallas Page 29 of 191

This section presents a summary and the implications of national, state, and regional economic trends on economic growth in Dallas, which are presented in Appendix A.

. County and local employment growth. Employment increased in Polk County since 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 2001, with a gain of about 4,770 employees between 2001 and 2018. The largest increases were in education and health services and leisure and hospitality. Dallas accounted for about 22% of employment in Polk County in 2018. Employment in Dallas increased between 2008 and 2018 by about 416 employees (or 10%). . Increases in regional economic diversity. Within the Mid-Willamette Valley region (which includes Marion, Polk, Linn, and Yamhill Counties), the types of industries transitioned away from the traditional natural resource extraction-based economy to a more diverse economic base, which includes value-add agricultural products, metals and machinery, specialty product manufacturing, and professional and technical

7 National League of Cities “Supporting Entrepreneurs and Small Businesses” (2012). https://www.nlc.org/supporting-entrepreneurs-and-small-business

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 9 services.8 The increases in regional economic development diversity provide opportunities for the development of new businesses in Dallas, as clusters of similar businesses continue to locate in the Mid-Willamette Valley region. . Changes in manufacturing and concentration of manufacturing in Oregon. Dallas’s location in the Willamette Valley, as well as its access to highways, proximity to Salem, and access to a skilled workforce present opportunities for growth in manufacturing businesses. In 2018, manufacturing accounted for about 11% of Dallas’s total covered employment and had an average wage of $44,617, higher than the city’s average wage of $36,962.

Between 2008 and 2018, the manufacturing sector in Dallas decreased from 527 to 480 employees, a decrease of 47 employees. Despite this decrease, over the 2008 to 2018 period, manufacturing added more than 120 jobs (as well as maintaining existing jobs) in sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing and other types of manufacturing.

In 2018, the City of Dallas approved all necessary land use applications for a paper manufacturing business (Mint Valley Paper) to develop a large property zoned industrial. The subject property has been planned and zoned industrial for several years. While Mint Valley Paper has yet to start construction, this single business is expected to bring between 120 and 150 manufacturing jobs. Recent development interest expressed by Mint Valley indicates a potential for manufacturing growth in Dallas as part of a diverse set of industries in the city.9 Page 30 of 191 . Increases in automation. Businesses in both industrial and commercial industries will continue to respond to increases in automated processes, decreasing employment in some types of manufacturing processes and slightly increasing need for workers with skills in computers and other high tech sectors. While automation has been a factor in

industrial sectors for decades (e.g., manufacturing), recent increases in automation have 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf occurred for commercial industries, such as certain functions of retail or office jobs. Oregon’s overall risk of automation is similar to that of the nation with lower and middle-wage jobs at higher risk of being automated. Jobs that are considered to be at lower risk include those that provide personal services or experiences, such as food service or hospitality. Higher-wage jobs that are also considered to be at a lower risk of automation include jobs that require social intelligence, perception, creativity, or fine motor skills. Most industrial sectors will still hire employees to complete certain tasks, though the types of skills required for these jobs may change as automation increases. Dallas’s access to a skilled workforce is an advantage for businesses in Dallas, as long as the

8 Mid-Willamette Valley Regional Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS). Mid-Willamette Valley Community Development Partnership Board. June 2018. 9 Discussion of development by Mint Valley has been public and extensive in Dallas.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 10 educational opportunities in the region continue to align with the needs for skills in industries in Dallas. . Importance of small businesses in Dallas’s economy. The average business in Dallas has 10 employees, slightly lower than the state average of 11 employees. The creation of new businesses is vital to Oregon’s (and Dallas’s) economy as their formations generate new jobs and advance innovations into markets. Younger workers are important to the continued growth of small businesses, as more than one-third of millennials in the nation are self-employed. Dallas’s access to a relatively young workforce from across the Willamette Valley presents opportunities for small businesses to grow in the city. . Changes in the retail sector. The retail sector has reacted over the past two decades to changing consumer preferences for shopping at large supercenters as well as online shopping. The growth of shopping online is likely to continue, accelerated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. There will continue to be demand for the local purchase of retail goods. Consumers still prefer physical, brick-and-mortar stores for certain items, such as large furniture, specialty goods, and groceries. Furthermore, consumer preferences have shifted to spending at restaurants and experience-focused series (e.g., entertainment or recreation). Retail businesses that compete with online retailers may become less common in Dallas (and other cities), but businesses providing experiences or goods that cannot be purchased online may grow and expand in Dallas. This presents opportunities for Dallas’s retail industry to build on the city’s high quality of life, providing experiences for residents and visitors, including those in agritourism. . Continued increase in demand for energy. While energy prices were comparatively low in early 2020, energy prices are forecasted to increase over the planning period. If Page 31 of 191 energy prices increase over the long term, these higher prices will likely affect the mode of commuting before affecting workers’ willingness to commute. For example, commuters may choose to purchase a more energy-efficient car or carpool. In Dallas, the options for modes of commuting into the city from other areas are more limited than in larger urban areas with access to transit, bike, and pedestrian infrastructure. Very large 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf increases in energy prices may affect workers’ willingness to commute, especially workers living the furthest from Dallas or workers with lower-paying jobs. In addition, very large increases in energy prices may make shipping freight long distances less economically feasible, resulting in a slowdown or reversal of offshore manufacturing, especially of large, bulky goods. . A tight labor market that changed abruptly. In 2019, the unemployment rate in Polk County was 4.1%, slightly higher than Oregon’s rate of 3.7% and the national rate of 3.6%. However, the sudden onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an abrupt increase in unemployment across the nation and in Oregon. In April 2020, unemployment rates increased to 12.8% in Polk County, 14.8% in Oregon, and 14.7% nationwide.10 By July 2020 the unemployment rate in Polk County decreased to 8.8% (10.4% statewide).

10 Note that these unemployment rate estimates are preliminary and may be revised as the year continues.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 11

In Polk County, approximately 2,925 jobs were lost initially, concentrated in the accommodations and food services, health services, manufacturing, and retail trade industries.11 It is unclear how many of these jobs are lost in the long term and how many will come back as the regional and statewide economies continue to reopen. The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis estimates that employment will not return to early 2020 levels until mid-2024, assuming the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are alleviated by a vaccine or effective treatment. . Availability of trained and skilled labor. Availability of labor depends, in part, on population growth and in-migration. Dallas’s population increased by 6,838 people between 2000 and 2019 at an average annual growth rate of 1.9%. Most of the population increase occurred between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of 2,124 residents. In comparison, Oregon’s population grew at an average annual growth rate of 1.1% between 2000 and 2019, with 69% of population coming from in-migration. The current labor force participation rate is another important consideration in the availability of labor. The labor force in any market consists of the adult population (16 and over) who are working or actively seeking work. The labor force includes both the employed and unemployed. According to the 2014–2018 American Community Survey, Dallas had about 7,455 people in its labor force and Polk County had over 38,900. The labor force participation rate in Dallas (57%) was lower than Polk County (60%) and Oregon (62%) in the 2014–2018 period. Nonparticipants in the labor force (the 43% of people not participating in Dallas’s labor force) include students 16 years and older,

retirees, and unemployed people not actively seeking work. A higher concentration of Page 32 of 191 older residents in an area or a mismatch of the types of jobs available in an area and the types of skills of the labor force can contribute to low labor force participation rates. Commuting is common for residents and workers in Dallas. Twenty-eight percent of workers at businesses in Dallas live in Dallas. About 56% live in Polk County, with 13% living in Salem, 5% living in Monmouth, 3% living in Independence, and 2% living in 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf each McMinnville, Albany, and Eugene. Businesses in Dallas draw employees from across Polk County as well as Marion and Yamhill Counties. In addition, 83% of residents of Dallas commute to work across the region, including 24% who work at businesses in Salem; 6% who work in Portland; 3% who work in each Corvallis and Monmouth; and 2% who work in each McMinnville, Independence, Grand Ronde, Albany, and Hillsboro. . Lower household income and average wages. Dallas’s median household income is lower relative to both the county and the state. In the 2014–2018 period, Dallas’s median household income was $56,169, lower than Polk County’s median household income of $58,344 and Oregon’s median household income of $59,393. The average wage at private

11 Based on information from the Oregon Employment Department for Polk County as of July 2020. https://www.qualityinfo.org/covid-19

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 12 businesses in Dallas was about $36,962 in 2018, which was lower than the Polk County average in 2018 of $37,902 and the state average of $53,000.12 . Education as a determinant of wages. Dallas’s population has a larger share (39%) of residents with a high school diploma (as their highest level of education) than in Polk County (34%) and Oregon (33%). About 38% of Dallas’s residents have some college or an associate degree, and about 23% have a bachelor’s degree or higher.13 Businesses that need employees with a college degree may need to recruit employees from outside of the city. Dallas businesses have access to students from the Chemeketa Community College Polk Center (in Dallas High School) and Western Oregon University in Monmouth; Oregon State University in Corvallis; and institutions in nearby Salem, including Willamette University, Corban University, and Chemeketa Community College. . Aging of the population and need for replacement workers. Dallas has a larger percentage of residents 60 years and older (27%) relative to Polk County (24%) and Oregon (24%). Dallas’s median age, which was 36.3 in 2000, increased to 42.0 in the 2014–2018 period. By comparison, Polk County’s median age was 37.1, and Oregon’s median age was 39.2 in the 2014–2018 period. Polk County’s population is expected to continue aging, with people 60 years and older increasing from 23% of the population in 2017 to 24% of the population in 2035, consistent with statewide trends.14 As workers retire, businesses need to replace them with new workers. This need for replacement workers will continue to drive need for workers. Page 33 of 191 . Increases in racial and ethnic diversity. Overall, both the nation and Oregon are becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Between 2000 and 2014–2018, the Hispanic and Latino population in Oregon increased from 8% to 13%, while it increased in Dallas from 4% to 6%. The population of people of color has increased from 13% to 16% in Oregon since 2000 and from 7% to 8% in Dallas. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

12 Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018. 13 In comparison, about 30.9% of the US population has a high school degree as their highest form of education, while about 10.8% has a bachelor’s degree or higher. The Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro Metropolitan Statistical Area follows a similar trend as the nation with 30.9% of residents having a high school degree and 11.4% of residents having a bachelor’s degree or higher. 14 Portland State University, College of Urban & Public Affairs: Population Research Center, Population Forecast, 2017.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 13 Employment Trends in Dallas and Polk County

The economy of the nation changed substantially between 1980 and 2018. These changes affected the composition of Oregon’s economy, including Dallas’s economy. At the national level, the most striking change was the shift from manufacturing employment to service-sector employment. The most important shift in Oregon during this period has been the shift from a timber-based economy to a more diverse economy, with the greatest employment in services. This section focuses on changes in the economy in Polk County and Dallas since 2001.

Employment Trends in Polk County

Exhibit 1 shows covered employment15 in Polk County for 2001 and 2018. Employment increased by 4,767 jobs, or 30%, over this period. The sectors with the largest increases in numbers of employees were health care and social assistance (1,293 jobs), professional and business services (705 jobs), accommodation and food services (687 jobs), and natural resources (436 jobs). The average wage for employment in Polk County in 2018 was about $37,902.

Exhibit 1. Covered Employment by Industry, Polk County, 2001–2018 Change 2001 to 2018 Sector 2001 2018 Difference Percent AAGR Natural Resources and Mining 1,314 1,750 436 33% 1.7% Construction 659 1,031 372 56% 2.7% Manufacturing 2,518 2,272 -246 -10% -0.6% Wholesale Trade 272 322 50 18% 1.0% Retail trade 1,410 1,714 304 22% 1.2% Page 34 of 191 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 234 432 198 85% 3.7% Information 72 65 -7 -10% -0.6% Financial Activities 344 463 119 35% 1.8% Professional and Business Services 527 1,232 705 134% 5.1% Educational Services 137 161 24 18% 1.0% 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Health Care and Social Assistance 1,871 3,164 1,293 69% 3.1% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 171 255 84 49% 2.4% Accommodation and Food Services 1,053 1,740 687 65% 3.0% Other Services 450 924 474 105% 4.3% Unclassified (c) 11 n/a n/a n/a Total All Government 4,638 4,905 267 6% 0.3% Total 15,675 20,442 4,767 30% 1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2001–2018. Note: “(c)” stands for “Not Disclosed” and indicates that the data has been suppressed by the BLS due to confidentiality constraints. The total amount of not-disclosed employment is shown in the table.

15 Covered employment includes employees covered by unemployment insurance. Examples of workers not included in covered employment are sole proprietors, some types of contractors (often referred to as “1099 employees”), or some railroad workers. Covered employment data is from the Oregon Employment Department.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 14 Exhibit 2 shows covered employment and average wage for the 10 largest industries in Polk County. Jobs in government accounted for approximately 24% of the county’s total covered employment, followed by health care and social assistance (15%) and manufacturing (11%). Of these sectors, manufacturing and government sectors pay above the county wage ($42,414 and $48,723, respectively). Jobs in wholesale trade; transportation, trade, and utilities; construction; financial activities; and information also paid more per year than the county average, but account for a smaller share of covered employment in the county.

Exhibit 2. Covered Employment and Average Pay by Sector, 10 Largest Sectors Polk County, 2018

6,000 $60,000

5,000 $50,000

4,000 Average County Wage $40,000

p 3,000 $30,000

2,000 $20,000 v

A Page 35 of 191

1,000 $10,000

0 $0 Gov't Health Manuf. Nat. Res. Accom./ Retail Prof. Serv. Constr. Other Finance 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Care Food Trade Serv. Activities Serv. Employees Avg. Pay per Employee

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018.

The statewide loss of employment due to the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the accommodation and food services industry the most, followed by the health-care and social assistance industry, as well as the manufacturing and retail industries.16 Other services, which include personal care services such as barber shops and beauty salons, nonveterinary pet care, and fitness instructors, also experienced acute impacts. Jobs in these industries tend to have lower wages, and the Oregon Employment Department (OED) reported that in the first nine

16 Based on information from the Oregon Employment Department for Polk County as of July 2020. https://www.qualityinfo.org/covid-19

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 15 weeks of the pandemic, about 68% of all initial unemployment claims came from individuals working jobs that paid less than $20 per hour.17 Furthermore, the OED reported that the manufacturing, construction, and health-care industries had a large quantity of initial unemployment insurance claims. For the manufacturing and construction industries, the OED suggested that this is likely due to businesses’ inability to put effective social distancing requirements into place.

In their June 2020 economic and revenue forecast, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) anticipates that over one-third of the initial job losses due to the pandemic will return by the end of 2020.18 However, the Oregon economy will be far from full recovery by then. OEA expects that after this initial economic snapback, Oregon’s economy will be in a position similar to that of the early 1980s recession or the Great Recession. OEA forecasts that the economy should recover to health by mid-2024.

Employment in Dallas

Between 2008 and 2018, employment in Dallas increased by about 416 employees (10%), at about a 1.0% average annual growth rate. Employment in health care, social assistance, and private education increased by about 198 employees (25%), while manufacturing employment decreased by about 47 employees (9%) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3. Change in Covered Employment, Dallas UGB, 2008–2018 Sectors highlighted in blue have wages higher than the city average. Change in employment 2008–2018 2008 2018 Sector Change Change Employment Employment AAGR Page 36 of 191 (Number) (Percent) Construction; Natural Resources 130 174 44 34% 3.0% Manufacturing 527 480 (4 7) -9% -0.9% Wholesale Trade 20 49 29 145% 9.4% Retail Trade 592 629 37 6% 0.6% Transportation and Warehousing; Utilities 62 49 (1 3) -21% -2.3% 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Information 38 35 (3 ) -8% -0.8% Finance and Insurance 85 86 1 1% 0.1% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 47 43 (4 ) -9% -0.9% Professional Services; Mgmt of Comp. 188 131 (5 7) -30% -3.5% Administrative Services 34 38 4 12% 1.1% Health Care and Social Assistance; Private Education 786 984 198 25% 2.3% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 24 28 4 17% 1.6% Accommodation and Food Services 363 464 101 28% 2.5% Other Services (except Public Administration) 150 274 124 83% 6.2% Government 1,030 1,028 (2 ) 0% 0.0% Total 4,076 4,492 416 10% 1.0% Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2008 and 2018.

17 Damon Runberg. “Who Are the COVID-19 Unemployed in Oregon?” Salem, OR: State of Oregon Employment Department. May 21, 2020. https://www.qualityinfo.org/-/who-are-the-covid-19-unemployed-in-oregon- 18 Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2020

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 16 Employment in Dallas accounted for about 22% of employment in Polk County in 2018. Exhibit 4 shows a summary of covered employment data for the Dallas UGB in 2018. The sectors with the greatest number of employees were government (23% of Dallas’s total covered employment), health care and social assistance (21%), retail trade (14%), and manufacturing (11%).

Exhibit 4. Covered Employment and Average Pay by Sector, Dallas UGB, 201819 Avg Wage per Sector Establishments Employees Payroll Employee Construction; Natural Resources 46 174 $ 7 ,817,923 $ 44,931 Manufacturing 9 480 $ 21,416,214 $ 44,617 Wholesale Trade 4 49 $ 1 ,779,599 $ 36,318 Retail Trade 39 629 $ 17,008,508 $ 27,041 Transportation and Warehousing; Utilities 8 49 $ 2 ,113,103 $ 43,125 Information 8 35 $ 1 ,204,839 $ 34,424 Finance and Insurance 25 86 $ 3 ,551,691 $ 41,299 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 19 43 $ 1 ,380,781 $ 32,111 Professional Services; Mgmt of Comp. 22 131 $ 4 ,956,070 $ 37,833 Administrative Services 16 38 $ 1 ,386,308 $ 36,482 Private Education 5 45 $ 1 ,266,399 $ 28,142 Health Care and Social Assistance 62 939 $ 36,834,937 $ 39,228 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 6 28 $ 298,517 $ 10,661 Accommodation and Food Services 38 464 $ 8 ,371,549 $ 18,042 Other Services (except Public Administration) 110 274 $ 5 ,588,385 $ 20,396 Government 29 1 ,028 $ 51,058,239 $ 49,668 Total 446 4, 492 $ 166,033,062 $ 36,962

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018. Page 37 of 191

The average size for a private business in Dallas was 10 employees per business, slightly lower than the state average of 11 employees. Businesses with 9 or fewer employees accounted for

37% of private employment, and businesses with 50 or fewer employees accounted for 65% of 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf private employment.

Exhibit 5 shows the employment and average pay per employee for sectors in Dallas. Average pay for all employees ($36,962) is shown as a yellow line across the graph, and average pay for individual sectors as short red lines. The figure shows that health care and social assistance; finance, insurance, and real estate; professional, scientific, and technical services; government; and industrial sectors had above average wages. The lowest wages were in retail trade and leisure activities, which include arts, entertainment, and recreation, as well as accommodation and food services.

19 The following sectors were combined due to confidentiality of QCEW data: utilities, transportation and warehousing; manufacturing and wholesale trade; finance and insurance, real estate and rental and leasing; health care and social assistance and private education; arts, entertainment and recreation and accommodation and food services.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 17 Exhibit 5. Covered Employment and Average Pay by Sector, Dallas UGB, 201820 1,200 $60,000

1,000 $50,000

l 800 Average City Wage $40,000 p

Average Polk County Wage e

l 600 $30,000

400 $20,000 a

200 $10,000

- $- Gov't Health Retail Leisure Manuf. Other Other Fin., Care Trade and Hospitality Commercial Industrial Insurance, Serv. Sectors and Real Estate

Employees Average Wage per Employee

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018.

Though data are not readily available at the city level to inform the impacts of the COVID-19 Page 38 of 191 pandemic, OED reports that Polk County had lower rates of unemployment insurance (UI) claims as a share of labor force relative to all Oregon counties.21 In the months following the onset of the pandemic (for data ending July 30, 2020), nearly 1,968 continued UI claims were made in Polk County. Of these claims, almost 315 were in the accommodation and food services sector (16% of the county’s total claims). Health care and social assistance had the next largest 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf share of continued claims at about 15% of the county total, followed by manufacturing and retail trade, each accounting for about 10%. The depth of the impact on wages is not fully apparent in the data yet; however, the sharp job loss in these sectors and others is expected to decrease or at least stagnate in the short run.

Outlook for Growth in Polk County

Given the large change in the economy starting in March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is difficult to accurately understand the likely outlook for growth in Polk County. The best currently available data is as follows. Exhibit 6 shows the Oregon Employment

20 “Industrial sectors” includes natural resources, construction, transportation and warehousing, utilities, and wholesale trade. “Leisure activities” includes accommodation and food services and arts, entertainment, and recreation. 21 Based on information from the Oregon Employment Department for Polk County as of July 2020. https://www.qualityinfo.org/covid-19

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 18 Department’s forecast for employment growth by industry for the Mid-Valley region (Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties) over the 2019 to 2029 period. Employment in the region is forecasted to grow at an average annual growth rate of 0.8%.

The sectors that will lead employment in the region for the 10-year period are private educational and health services (adding 6,700 jobs); government (3,100); trade, transportation, and utilities (2,600); professional and business services (2,400); construction (2,300); and leisure and hospitality (2,300). In sum, these sectors are expected to add 19,400 new jobs, or about 81% of employment growth in the Mid-Valley region. Polk County accounts for about 7% of employment in these four counties, and Dallas accounts for about 22% of the county’s employment.

Exhibit 6. Regional Employment Projections, 2019–2029, Mid-Valley Region (Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties) Change 2019–2029 Industry Sector 2019 2029 Number Percent AAGR Total Private Payroll Employment 215,700 235,500 19,800 9% 0.9% Natural Resources and Mining 18,000 19,300 1,300 7% 0.7% Mining and Logging 1,200 1,200 0 0% 0.0% Construction 17,400 19,700 2,300 13% 1.2% Manufacturing 28,900 30,300 1,400 5% 0.5% Durable Goods 17,100 18,200 1,100 6% 0.6% Wood Product Manufacturing 4,400 4,500 100 2% 0.2% Nondurable Goods 11,800 12,100 300 3% 0.3% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 43,700 46,300 2,600 6% 0.6% Page 39 of 191 Wholesale Trade 6,400 7,000 600 9% 0.9% Retail Trade 27,900 28,500 600 2% 0.2% Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 9,400 10,800 1,400 15% 1.4% Information 2,000 2,000 0 0% 0.0% Financial Activities 9,600 9,700 100 1% 0.1% Professional and Business Services 20,400 22,800 2,400 12% 1.1% 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Private Educational and Health Services 42,100 48,800 6,700 16% 1.5% Health Care and Social Assistance 37,400 43,600 6,200 17% 1.5% Health Care 29,800 34,600 4,800 16% 1.5% Leisure and Hospitality 23,300 25,600 2,300 10% 0.9% Accommodation and Food Services 20,700 22,800 2,100 10% 1.0% Other Services and Private Households 10,300 11,000 700 7% 0.7% Government 54,000 57,100 3,100 6% 0.6% Federal Government 2,200 2,300 100 5% 0.4% State Government 21,200 22,800 1,600 8% 0.7% Local Government 30,600 32,000 1,400 5% 0.4% Local Education 17,100 18,000 900 5% 0.5% Self-Employment 15,500 16,700 1,200 8% 0.7% Total employment 285,200 309,300 24,100 8% 0.8% Source: Oregon Employment Department. Employment Projections by Industry 2019-2029.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 19 Dallas’s Competitive Advantage

Economic development opportunities in Dallas will be affected by local conditions as well as the national and state economic conditions addressed above. Economic conditions in Dallas relative to these conditions in other portions of the Willamette Valley region form Dallas’s competitive advantage for economic development. Dallas’s competitive advantages have implications for the types of firms most likely to locate and expand in the area.

Dallas’s primary competitive advantages are access to a skilled labor force, supply of industrial land, access to a regional airport in Salem, a business-friendly environment, and quality of life. These factors make Dallas attractive to residents and businesses that want a high quality of life where they live and work.

The discussion earlier in this chapter provided information about Dallas’s existing base of businesses and access to labor, which are key to understanding Dallas’s competitive advantages. This section summarizes these and other local factors that form Dallas’s competitive advantage, with additional details in the sections following this summary.

Dallas’s advantages for economic development include:

. Location. Dallas is located in Polk County and is part of the Willamette Valley region. It is about 13 miles west of Salem and 60 miles southwest of Portland. Employers in Dallas have access to labor in the broader Willamette Valley region, drawing employees from Salem, Monmouth, and Independence. These locational aspects allow both goods and workers to move in and out of Dallas with relative efficiency. Dallas’s location can be an Page 40 of 191 advantage, especially for workers who prefer to live in or near Dallas for its quality of life but still need access to urban amenities. . Transportation. Dallas is the only major city located along Route 223, which runs north-

south from Wren to Dallas. At the north end, the highway intersects with Route 22 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf leading to Salem, which eventually connects with I-5 about 20 miles outside of Dallas. As a major interstate, I-5 is a preferred route for trucking and distribution between California and Washington, as it is relatively flat. Route 223 also has a spur route that runs east through Polk County from Dallas and connects to an interchange with Route 22 and Pacific Highway West (OR 99W) in Rickreall. Dallas has less traffic congestion than observed in Salem, Portland, and other large cities. While Dallas itself does not have an airport, its proximity to Salem provides the city with access to a municipal airport less than 20 miles away. The closest large-scale international airport is approximately 70 miles away in Portland. Dallas has rail access to Portland & Western Railroad, and several properties planned for industrial could potentially utilize the existing rail access.22

22 The railroads noted here are not currently in use and are in need of repair.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 20 . Industrial land supply. The buildable lands inventory (BLI) in Chapter 4 shows that Dallas has 213 acres of unconstrained buildable land within the UGB. Dallas has a variety of site sizes of industrial land with developable areas suitable for a variety of businesses ranging from manufacturing and other industrial uses to smaller service outfits. Redevelopment opportunities. Dallas’s downtown has continued opportunities for redevelopment for commercial properties. In Our Dallas 2030, the community is envisioned as having “fully revitalized our historic Downtown, and offer a full range of housing options to accommodate our growing population’s diverse needs.” Dallas’s urban renewal district mostly includes properties in the Central Business District plan designation. The City has used urban renewal to implement programs that award grants for façade improvements. Additionally, the mill site, located in the southern portion of Dallas’s UGB, is identified as a potential redevelopment site. Constraints on this site include a potential floodplain, wetlands, riparian corridor, raised concrete slabs, slopes greater than 15%, and potential brownfield areas of the site. Redevelopment of the mill site may require significant support by the City, in the form of financial incentives, tax abatements, and other assistance. . Utilities rates and telecommunication infrastructure. Dallas has relatively low utility rates, as well as access to “gig-speed” internet through Willamette Valley Fiber. These factors may attract businesses that require heavy use of utilities. In addition, broadband and fiber internet access is an increasingly high priority for most businesses. It can also help to attract remote workers who may not work for a business in Dallas but want to Page 41 of 191 live in Dallas, as well as new home-based businesses. . Labor market. Dallas’s workforce is relatively older, with a larger share of residents approaching retirement than in Polk County and Oregon overall. Dallas’s labor force participation rate (57%) is slightly lower than the county average (60%). 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Although the share of Dallas’s working age population with a bachelor’s degree or higher (23%) is lower relative to the county average (30%), the city has a higher share (38%) of residents with an associate degree. Employers have access to workers in the mid-to-late stages of their careers, as well as students attending the Dallas School District’s Career and Technical Education Programs (CTE) or pursuing postsecondary education at Chemeketa Community College’s Polk Center in Dallas or Oregon State University Polk County Extension. Dallas also has access to students from nearby educational institutions, such as Western Oregon University in Monmouth, as well as Chemeketa Community College and Willamette University in Salem. . Business-friendly environment. Dallas has a reputation for being a business-friendly community, with the systems in place to respond to a business’s needs quickly. From utility demands to permit needs, the City can generally keep up with and accommodate requests from new and existing businesses. The City continues to prioritize relationships with business owners and has developed key partnerships with business assistance

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 21 organizations, including but not limited to the Dallas Chamber of Commerce, the Dallas Downtown Association, and the Strategic Economic Development Corporation (SEDCOR). Many business owners are active in the local community, serving on boards and committees for various organizations in Dallas. Additionally, Dallas offers a variety of tax incentives to businesses, including some of the lowest available tax rates in the state, exemptions through the City’s Enterprise Zone, and the Dallas Opportunity Zone’s capital gains tax reinvestment benefits. . Tourism and access to outdoor recreation. Dallas, similar to other places in the Willamette Valley region, attracts visitors for its access to outdoor recreation opportunities and wineries. In addition to the city’s parks and open space, Dallas offers biking on the Rickreall Creek Trail System and access to Black Rock mountain bike trails in nearby Falls City. Wildlife viewing is also accessible near Dallas at the Baskett Slough National Wildlife Refuge. Visitors also come to Dallas to enjoy the surrounding vineyards and tasting rooms open throughout most of the year. Businesses and employees may be attracted to Dallas because of the easy access to outdoor recreation and cultural amenities. In 2019, the Mid-Willamette Valley Community Development Partnership completed walking maps for smaller communities in the region, including Dallas, to promote cultural and historic education for visitors.23 . Quality of life. For many of the reasons that Dallas attracts visitors, it also attracts residents. Dallas’s quality of life attracts employers and their workers to the city. In addition to its role as a cultural hub within the state, the Willamette Valley’s cooler climate has enabled the region to become a major wine producer. Dallas provides residents with small-town character, while providing necessary services and amenities Page 42 of 191 including a historic downtown, a strong public-school system, and West Valley Hospital. Access to recreation and comparatively affordable housing costs also contribute to Dallas’s high quality of life.

Dallas’s disadvantages for economic development include: 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

. Location. For companies looking to locate in the state, Dallas’s location presents challenges, as it is not along an interstate. Dallas is located about 5 miles from Highway 99W and about 18 miles from I-5. Dallas’s distance from these major routes may draw residents and visitors who seek a more remote location, but it can be a disadvantage for many types of businesses, especially those that need close proximity to a larger urban area, other cities, or direct access to I-5. Development of smaller scales of these businesses, however, may find Dallas’s location as an advantage to serve markets in the region and the state. . Housing affordability. Dallas’s median home price is similar to that of Polk County ($327,000). According to Zillow, the median home sales price in Dallas in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $323,000, compared with $291,000 for Salem and $316,000 for

23 Annual Report. Mid-Willamette Community Development Partnership. June 30, 2019.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 22 Monmouth. Sales prices in Independence were also lower than Dallas ($278,000). Conversely, rents in Dallas are 15% lower than Salem, 8% lower than Monmouth, and 21% lower than Independence.24 While the comparatively affordable median home prices in nearby Salem, Independence, and Monmouth make it more attractive than Dallas for workers and businesses wishing to purchase a home, the more affordable rents offer an alternative for those who wish to reside in Dallas. . Vacancies in downtown. Vacancies in buildings in downtown Dallas prevent the city from realizing the vision of a vibrant central business district. For some businesses, parking restrictions may be a barrier to locating in downtown. . Infrastructure needs. Many of Dallas’s sites with buildable land lack immediate access to infrastructure (i.e., they are not “shovel-ready” sites). This is a barrier for both industrial and commercial land in Dallas, including areas in the master plan nodes. For example, the La Creole Master Plan area requires extension of sanitary sewer systems. Some of the identified infrastructure improvements are costly and would require a developer to build them out. Additionally, while some sites in Dallas have rail access, the rail lines would require repair to return to use. . Commercial land supply. The BLI in Chapter 4 shows that Dallas has 45 acres of buildable commercial land in the UGB. Almost half (24 acres) are in the La Creole Master Plan area, which does not yet have the necessary infrastructure to build out for commercial uses.

. Jobs-housing imbalance. Commuting is common for Dallas workers and residents,

which is a similar trend across cities in the Willamette Valley. In 2018, the ratio of Page 43 of 191 covered employees to residents in Dallas was about 0.3. Although some workers would prefer to both live and work in Dallas, over two-thirds of Dallas workers commute from surrounding cities, including Monmouth, Independence, and Salem. Similarly, over three-quarters of Dallas residents commute out of Dallas for work in surrounding cities. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Public Facilities and Services

Provision and costs of public facilities and services can impact a firm’s decision regarding location within a region. One of the primary considerations about developing a site is whether it has infrastructure to or near the site, including water, wastewater, stormwater, and transportation. If infrastructure is not developed to or near the site, the consideration becomes whether infrastructure can be extended in a timely manner and at a financially feasible cost.

This section discusses Dallas’s large infrastructure systems, including the water system, wastewater system, and stormwater system. It answers the question of whether Dallas has or is planning to have sufficient capacity to support the amount and types of development proposed in the EOA.

24 Zillow. (2020). Home Values. https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 23 Water

Overall, Dallas has enough water capacity to accommodate existing and future water needs for industrial and commercial uses. The city’s water treatment plant has a capacity of 10.5 million gallons per day. Currently, the peak summer usage is about 5 million gallons per day and winter usage averages about 2.5 to 3 million gallons per day. Dallas’s single water source is the Mercer reservoir, which is part of the Rickreall Watershed.

The primary concern for Dallas’s water supply is the lack of a redundant source. While the watershed supplying the existing source has enough rainfall per year to accommodate additional demand, Dallas would need to build an additional reservoir to store it. Dallas’s current water system has capacity to accommodate existing and future growth, but continued growth coupled with drought years could create tighter demand in the future. In the 20-year period, Dallas has near-term plans to continue maintenance of existing facilities, as well as long- term plans to increase raw water storage capacity.

Wastewater

The current capacity of Dallas’s wastewater treatment plant is 12.5 million gallons per day. With an existing demand of 4 to 5 million gallons per day, the City could accommodate growth of industrial or commercial uses within the current system. Seasonally, Dallas’s stormwater system has minor infiltration and inflow issues during storms due to cracked pipes. The City has completed some larger projects to correct issues along transition lines and has plans to continue monitoring and correcting infiltration issues. Page 44 of 191 Overall, the City expects to accommodate existing and future uses, including large industrial users. Previously, the City had larger industrial users with high demand, including at the mill site. While these users are no longer located in Dallas, the wastewater infrastructure still exists and is available for future users. The City is also in the process of designing a recycled water program that would be available for irrigation or industrial purposes. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 24 3. Employment Growth and Site Needs

Goal 9 requires cities to prepare an estimate of the amount of commercial and industrial land that will be needed over a 20-year planning period. The estimate of employment land need and site characteristics for Dallas is based on expected employment growth and the types of firms that are likely to locate in Dallas over the 20-year period. This chapter presents an employment forecast and analysis of potential growth industries that build from recent economic trends. Forecast of Employment Growth and Commercial and Industrial Land Demand

Demand for industrial and nonretail commercial land will be driven by the expansion and relocation of existing businesses and by the growth of new businesses in Dallas. This employment land demand is driven by local growth independent of broader economic opportunities, including the growth of potential growth industries.

The employment projections in this section build off Dallas’s existing employment base, assuming future growth is similar to Polk County’s long-term historical employment growth rates. The employment forecast does not take into account a major change in employment that could result from the location (or relocation) of one or more large employers in the community during the planning period. Such a major change in the community’s employment would exceed the growth anticipated by the City’s employment forecast and its implied land needs (for employment, but also for housing, parks, and other uses). Major economic events, such as Page 45 of 191 the successful recruitment of a very large employer, are difficult to include in a study of this nature. The implications, however, are relatively predictable: more demand for land (of all types) and public services.

ECONorthwest has four steps to project demand for industrial and nonretail commercial land: 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

1. Establish base employment for the projection. We start with the estimate of covered employment in Dallas presented in Exhibit 4. Covered employment does not include all workers, so we adjust covered employment to reflect total employment in the city. 2. Project total employment. The projection of total employment considers forecasts and factors that may affect employment growth in Dallas over the 20-year planning period. 3. Allocate employment. This step involves allocating types of employment to different land use types. 4. Estimate land demand. This step estimates general employment land demand based on employment growth and assumptions about future employment densities. This analysis applies methods established by administrative rule and input received from the Dallas Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), the Dallas Planning Commission, and the Dallas City Council.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 25 Employment Base for Projection

The purpose of the employment projection is to model future employment land need for general employment growth. The forecast of employment growth in Dallas starts with a base of employment growth on which to build the forecast. Exhibit 7 shows ECONorthwest’s estimate of total employment in Dallas in 2018.

To develop the figures, ECONorthwest started with estimated covered employment in the Dallas UGB from confidential Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data provided by the Oregon Employment Department. Based on this information, Dallas had about 4,492 covered employees in 2018.

Covered employment, however, does not include all workers in an economy. Most notably, covered employment does not include sole proprietors. Analysis of data shows that covered employment reported by the Oregon Employment Department for Polk County is only about 70% of total employment reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce.25 We evaluated this ratio for each industrial sector for Polk County and used the resulting ratios to determine the number of noncovered employees. This allowed us to determine the total employment in Dallas. Exhibit 7 shows Dallas had an estimated 6,805 total employees within its UGB in 2018. Page 46 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

25 Covered employment includes employees covered by unemployment insurance. Examples of workers not included in covered employment are sole proprietors, some types of contractors (often referred to as “1099 employees”), or some railroad workers. Covered employment data is from the Oregon Employment Department.

Total employment includes all workers based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Total employment includes all covered employees, plus sole proprietors and other noncovered workers.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 26 Exhibit 7. Estimated Total Employment by Sector, Dallas UGB, 2018 Covered Estimated Covered % Sector Employment Total Employment of Total Construction; Natural Resources 174 270 64% Manufacturing 480 544 88% Wholesale Trade 49 72 68% Retail Trade 629 1,034 61% Transportation and Warehousing; Utilities 49 83 59% Information 35 97 36% Finance and Insurance 86 283 30% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 43 315 14% Professional Services; Mgmt of Comp. 131 525 25% Professional, Technical, Administrative Services 38 62 61% Private Education 45 120 38% Health Care and Social Assistance 939 1,143 82% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 28 82 34% Accommodation and Food Services 464 539 86% Other Services (except Public Administration) 274 556 49% Government 1,028 1,080 95%

Total 4,492 6,805 66% Source: 2018 covered employment from confidential Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage (QCEW) data provided by the Oregon Employment Department.

Employment Projection

The employment forecast covers the 2021 to 2041 period, requiring an estimate of total

employment for Dallas in 2021. The base employment starts with the estimate of 6,805 total jobs Page 47 of 191 in Dallas in 2018, shown in Exhibit 7. Since 2018, however, unemployment has increased substantially in Oregon as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the employment forecast assumes a 5% decrease26 in the number of employees in Dallas in 2021, resulting in an employment base of 6,465 total employees in Dallas (Exhibit 9). 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Dallas does not have an existing employment forecast, and there is no required method for employment forecasting. OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a) sets out some optional “safe harbors” that allow a city to determine employment land need. ECONorthwest presented the TAC and City Council with options for the employment forecast rate, including the two safe harbor options.

Exhibit 8 shows the forecast rate options, which include employment growing at the rate of either the PSU population growth rate (1.61%), the OED regional employment growth rate (0.81%),27or the historic employment growth rate in Dallas between 2008 and 2018 (0.98%). The

26 In July 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Oregon was 10.4% and 8.8% in Polk County, according to the Oregon Employment Department. This analysis assumes that Dallas’s job market will recover relatively quickly. 27 During the EOA process, the OED forecast rates for the 2019–2029 were not yet available. The TAC and City Council reviewed the previous forecast for the 2017–2027 period, which had a rate of 1.13%.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 27 PSU and OED growth rates are the safe harbor options in OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a)(A) and OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a)(B).

Exhibit 8. Forecast Rate Options for Employment Growth in Dallas UGB, 2021–2041

Jobs Grow at the Rate of…

Employment Historic (2008-18) Population Growth Growth in the Employment Year for the City Region Growth in Dallas (1.61%) (0.8%) (0.98%) 2021 6, 465 6, 124 6, 124 2041 8, 905 7, 203 7, 438 Change 2021 to 2041 Employees 2,440 1,079 1,314 Percent 38% 18% 21% AAGR 1.61% 0.81% 0.98% Source: ECONorthwest

Based on the options presented to City Council, as well as discussion with the TAC, Council approved the use of the population rate safe harbor described in OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a)(B) at the August 3, 2020, work session. This safe harbor allows the City to assume that the current number of jobs in the Dallas UGB will grow during the 20-year planning period at a rate equal to the population growth rate provided in the most recent forecast published by Portland State University’s Oregon Population Forecast Program. The latest forecast shows that the population in Dallas will grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.6%.28 Page 48 of 191

Exhibit 9 shows employment growth in Dallas between 2021 and 2041, based on the assumption that the city will grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.6%. Dallas will have 8,905 employees within the UGB by 2041, which is an increase of 2,440 employees (38%) between 2021 and 2041. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Exhibit 9. Employment Growth in Dallas UGB, 2021–2041 Total Year Employment 2021 6, 465 2041 8, 905 Change in Employees (2021 to 2041) Employees 2,440 Percent 38%

AAGR 1.61% Source: ECONorthwest

28 Final Population Forecasts prepared by Population Research Center, Portland State University, June 30th, 2018.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 28 Allocate Employment to Different Land Use Types

The next step in forecasting employment is to allocate future employment to broad categories of land use. Firms wanting to expand or locate in Dallas will look for a variety of site characteristics, depending on the industry and specific circumstances. We grouped employment into four broad categories of land use based on the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS): industrial, retail commercial, office and commercial services, and government.

Exhibit 10 shows the expected share of employment by land use type in 2021 and the forecast of employment growth by land use type in 2041 in the Dallas UGB. For each land use type, we assumed that the number of jobs will increase, except for government. Exhibit 10 assumes that the share of employment in retail commercial will decrease from 15% to 13% of all employment, consistent with national trends in declines in local retail. It also assumes that government employment will decrease from 16% to 14% of overall employment, based on the assumption that school, county, and local employment will grow slower than other types of employment. Exhibit 10 shows industrial and office and commercial services increasing share of employment by 2% each.

These assumptions for the future share of employment were reviewed with the TAC and approved by the City Council at the August 3, 2020, work session.

Exhibit 10. Forecast of Employment Growth by Land Use Type, Dallas UGB, 2021–2041 *Number of Employees 2021 2041 Change Land Use Type Employment* % of Total Employment* % of Total 2021 to 2041 Page 49 of 191 Industrial 921 14% 1,425 16% 504 Retail Commercial 982 15% 1,158 13% 176 Office & Commercial Services 3,536 55% 5,076 57% 1,540 Government 1,026 16% 1,246 14% 220

Total 6,465 100% 8,905 100% 2,440 Source: ECONorthwest 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Note: The shaded percentages denote an assumption about the future change in the share of employment (as a percent of total) by land use type.

Estimate of Demand for Commercial and Industrial Land

This section shows demand for vacant (including partially vacant) land in Dallas over the 20- year period. The assumptions used in this analysis are:

. Employment density. Employees per acre is a measure of employment density based on the ratio of the number of employees per acre of employment land that is developed for employment uses. An empirical analysis of Dallas’s existing employment conducted by ECONorthwest showed that industrial sites have an average of 12 employees per acre, retail commercial sites have an average of 17 employees per acre, and office commercial sites have an average of 16 employees per acre. Exhibit 11 assumes the following numbers of net employees per acre: industrial will have an average of 12 employees per acre and commercial (retail and office) commercial

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 29 will have an average of 16 employees per acre. These employment densities are consistent with Oregon cities similar in size to Dallas. Some types of employment will have higher employment densities (e.g., a multistory office building), and some will have lower employment densities (e.g., a convenience store with a large parking lot). . Conversion from net-to-gross acres. The data about employment density is in net acres, which does not include land for public right-of-way. Future land need for employment should include land in tax lots needed for employment plus land needed for public right-of-way. One way to estimate the amount of land needed for employment, including public right-of-way, is to convert from net to gross acres based on assumptions about the amount of land needed for public right-of-way.29 A net-to-gross conversion is expressed as a percentage of gross acres that are in public right-of-way. Based on empirical evaluation of Dallas’s existing net-to-gross ratios in areas designated for and developed with industrial and commercial uses, ECONorthwest uses a net-to- gross conversion factor of 17% for industrial and 22% for commercial. Using these assumptions, the forecasted growth of 2,220 new employees will result in the following demand for vacant (and partially vacant) employment land: 50 gross acres of industrial land, 14 acres of retail commercial land, and 124 gross acres of office commercial land.

Exhibit 11. Demand for Vacant Land to Accommodate Employment Growth, Dallas UGB, 2021–2041 Employees New Emp. on Land Demand Land Demand Land Use Type per Acre Vacant Land (Net Acres) (Gross Acres)

(Net Acres) Page 50 of 191 Industrial 504 12 42 50 Retail Commercial 176 16 11 14 Office & Commercial Services 1,540 16 96 124

Total 2,220 - 149 189 Source: ECONorthwest 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

29 OAR 660-024-0010(6) uses the following definition of net buildable acre. “Net Buildable Acre” consists of 43,560 square feet of residentially designated buildable land after excluding future rights-of-way for streets and roads. While the administrative rule does not include a definition of a gross buildable acre, using the definition above, a gross buildable acre will include areas used for rights-of-way for streets and roads. Areas used for rights-of-way are considered unbuildable.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 30 Target Industries

The characteristics of Dallas will affect the types of businesses most likely to locate in the city. Attributes that may attract firms are Dallas’s access to industrial land, labor market, and quality of life.

Dallas’s existing businesses are concentrated in the industries defined in Exhibit 12. The industries in green highlight are industries with a high location quotient (i.e., highly specialized compared to national employment in the industry), high employment (i.e., have more than 50 employees in Dallas), and higher than average city wages. These industries have the highest potential for growth, given existing businesses and the higher concentration of employment.

Dallas also has opportunities for employment growth in industries without a concentration of employment or a high location quotient.

Exhibit 12. Concentration of Industries and Employment, Dallas, 2018 High Employment Low Employment (more than 50 employees) (at least 10 employees)

High . Transportation Equipment Manufacturing . Building Material and Garden Equipment and Location . Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Supplies Dealers . Food and Beverage Stores . Waste Management and Remediation Quotient . Nursing and Residential Care Facilities Services . Social Assistance . Food Services and Drinking Places . Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations . Private Households Page 51 of 191 Low . Specialty Trade Contractors . Construction of Buildings Location . Professional, Scientific, and Technical . Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Services . Health and Personal Care Stores Quotient . Ambulatory Health-Care Services . Gasoline Stations . Truck Transportation . Publishing Industries (except Internet)

. Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf . Insurance Carriers and Related Activities . Real Estate . Administrative and Support Services . Educational Services . Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries . Repair and Maintenance . Personal and Laundry Services

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018. Note: Green highlighting indicates higher than Dallas’s average wage.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 31 Potential Growth Industries

An analysis of growth industries in Dallas should address two main questions: (1) Which industries are most likely to be attracted to Dallas? and (2) Which industries best meet Dallas’s economic development goals? The selection of potential growth industries is based on Dallas’s goals for economic development, economic conditions in Dallas and Polk County, and the City’s competitive advantages.

Given the current employment base, which is composed of small-sized businesses, it is reasonable to assume that much of the city’s business growth will come from small-sized businesses. This growth will either come from businesses already in Dallas or new businesses that start or relocate to Dallas from within the Mid-Willamette Valley region or from outside of the region.

The industries identified as having potential for growth in Dallas are:

. Manufacturing. As automation continues to change manufacturing industries, Dallas’s target manufacturing industries will also evolve. Based on existing businesses in Dallas, these industries may include:

. Transportation equipment manufacturing

. Metals manufacturing

. Paper manufacturing and other wood products manufacturing

. Local warehousing. Businesses in Dallas will need warehouse distribution facilities for Page 52 of 191 products manufactured in Dallas or products distributed from Dallas. . Services for visitors. Dallas is located in close proximity to wineries and vineyards in the Willamette Valley. Natural areas near Dallas also provide access to a range of outdoor recreation activities. Visitors that stop in Dallas creating future demand for services such as hotels, restaurants, retail, and experiences available in or near Dallas. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf . Services for residents. As Dallas’s population or the population of the outlying areas in Polk and Marion Counties grow, demand for services for residents will grow. These services include retail, restaurants, personal services (like hairdressers), financial services, medical services, and other services. These types of services present opportunities for entrepreneurship and small business development in Dallas.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 32 Site Needs for Potential Growth Industries

OAR 660-009-0015(2) requires the EOA to “identify the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate the expected [20-year] employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses.” The Goal 9 rule does not specify how jurisdictions conduct and organize this analysis.

OAR 660-009-0015(2) does state that “industrial or other employment uses with compatible site characteristics may be grouped together into common site categories.” The rule suggests, but does not require, that the City “examine existing firms in the planning area to identify the types of sites that may be needed.” For example, site types can be described by (1) plan designation (e.g., heavy or light industrial), (2) general size categories that are defined locally (e.g., small, medium, or large sites), or (3) industry or use (e.g., manufacturing sites or distribution sites). For purposes of the EOA, Dallas groups its future employment uses into categories based on their need for land with a particular plan designation (i.e., industrial or commercial) and by their need for sites of a particular size.

The potential growth industries described in the prior section are a mixture of business sizes, from small to medium-sized businesses. For the most part, Dallas’s potential growth industries need flat sites smaller than two acres and up to 25 acres. Industrial businesses need access to arterial and highways with no freight movement through neighborhoods. These business may also need greater access to water and wastewater. Exhibit 13 shows the typical site needs for manufacturing businesses in Oregon.

Exhibit 13. Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix, Business Oregon Page 53 of 191 Site Access Telecommunications Site Max distance in miles to (major Site size Topography Trip Generation interstate or major Railroad or communications Industry Sector (Acres) (Slope) (ADT/Acre) arterial Port Access dependency) Regionally to Nationally Scaled 5-100+ 0-5% 40 - 60 10 Preferred Required Clean-Tech Manufacturer 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Heavy Industrial/ Manufacturing 10-100+ 0-5% 40 - 60 10 Preferred Preferred

General Manufacturing 5-15+ 0-5% 40 - 50 20 Preferred Required Food Processing 5-25+ 0-5% 50 - 60 30 Preferred Preferred 5 Regional (multistate) Distribution 20-100+ 0-5% 40 - 80 Only Interstate highway Preferred Preferred Center or equivalent 5 Warehouse/Distribution (local) 10-25 0-5% 40 - 80 Only Interstate highway Preferred Preferred or equivalent

Call Center / Business Services 5-15 0 to 12% 170 - 180 Not applicable Preferred Required

Advanced Manufacturing & 5-25+ 0-7% 40 - 60 15 Not Required Required Assembly Business Park and R&D 20 - 0-7% 60 to 150 N/A Preferred Required Campus 100+ UVA Manufacturing / Research 10-25+ 0-7% 40 - 80 N/A Not Required Required Avoid / Not Data Center 10-25+ 0-7% 20 - 30 30 Required Required Rural Industrial 5-25+ 0-5% 40 - 50 N/A N/A Preferred Source: Business Oregon, Infrastructure Finance Authority, “Industrial Development Competitiveness Matrix.” Note: Items identified as “preferred” are those that increase the feasibility of the subject property and its future reuse. Items identified as “required” are factors seen as mandatory in the vast majority of cases and have become industry standards.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 33 For the most part, the size of sites needed by most potential growth industries will range from space in an existing building to flat sites of one acre or less to sites of 25 acres for manufacturing businesses. In a few instances, such as in industrial or business parks, sites larger than 25 acres (and up to 100 acres or larger) may be necessary to meet the needs of businesses or developments to support businesses. Manufacturing and other industrial businesses likely to locate in Dallas will have a range of space needs:

. Small-scale manufacturing space. Businesses would be located in an industrial building with many other users. These businesses will need direct access to arterial and highways. . Space in an existing building. The majority of businesses that work with Business Oregon on site selection request space in existing buildings, either in vacant buildings or in buildings with other manufacturers. . Midsized manufacturing. Some midsized manufacturers may prefer to locate in a building with one or two other businesses. Other manufacturers may prefer to locate in newly developed buildings on sites from five to 15 acres in size. These businesses will need direct access to arterial and highways and may need greater access to water and wastewater. . Large manufacturing space. Some larger manufacturers may prefer newly developed buildings on sites larger than 15 acres, often in purpose-build buildings. These businesses will need direct access to arterial and highways and may need greater access to water and wastewater. For example, the property where Mint Valley Paper Company

has proposed construction of a new manufacturing facility is about 53 acres in size, of Page 54 of 191 which about 37 acres is buildable when you exclude the areas with floodplains and wetlands. Commercial businesses, including service and hospitality, require high-visibility locations near other businesses and neighborhoods. Professional and commercial service businesses have a 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf variety of space needs, ranging from:

. Space in an existing building. Businesses would be located as one of several or many firms within the building. . Space in a building dominated by one firm. This could potentially be with manufacturing or other industrial space in the building. . Land for construction of a building designed for the firm. However, in the case where the business needs to build a building, they are typically seeking existing space rather than land to build a new facility.

Some commercial businesses may locate in Dallas’s nodal development areas when infrastructure (e.g., sanitary sewer services) are available and when surrounding neighborhoods have developed.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 34 4. Buildable Lands Inventory

The buildable lands inventory is intended to identify commercial and industrial lands that are available for development for employment uses within the Dallas UGB. The inventory is sometimes characterized as supply of land to accommodate anticipated employment growth. Population and employment growth drive demand for land. The amount of land needed depends on the type of development and other factors.

This chapter presents results of the commercial and industrial buildable lands inventory for the Dallas UGB. The results are based on analyses of City of Dallas, Polk County, and State of Oregon GIS data by ECONorthwest and reviewed by City staff. The remainder of this chapter summarizes key findings of the buildable lands inventory.

The general steps in the buildable lands inventory are:

1. Generate UGB “land base” 2. Classify lands by buildable area status 3. Identify constraints 4. Verify inventory results 5. Tabulate and map results

The next section provides a summary of the results of the commercial and industrial buildable Page 55 of 191 lands inventory for the Dallas UGB in both tabular and map formats. Appendix B presents more details on the methodology for developing the inventory.

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 35 Land Base

Exhibit 14 summarizes all land included in the employment land base (e.g., lands with plan designations that allow employment) in the Dallas UGB. ECONorthwest used this land base in the buildable lands analysis for Dallas. According to 2019 data, within Dallas’s UGB there are about 682 total employment land acres in 600 tax lots in total.

Exhibit 14. Commercial and Industrial Acres, Dallas UGB, 2020 Number of Percent of Acres Percent of Plan Designation - Zone Lots Total Total Industrial 199 33% 482 71% Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas 349 58% 144 21% Central Buisness District 187 31% 45 7% Commercial 162 27% 98 14% Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas 52 9% 57 8% Barberry Node 10 2% 13 2% Commercial Neighborhood 10 2% 13 2% La Creole Node 41 7% 39 6% Commercial General 17 3% 23 3% Mixed Use 24 4% 16 2% Wyatt Node 1 0% 4 1% Commercial Neighborhood 1 0% 4 1% Total 600 100% 682 100% Source: ECONorthwest analysis of data from City of Dallas and Polk County.

Buildable Area Status

Exhibit 15 shows commercial, industrial, and agricultural land in Dallas by buildable area Page 56 of 191 status. Of the 682 commercial and industrial acres in the Dallas UGB, about 307 acres (45 %) are in classifications with no development capacity (or “committed acres”). Of the remaining 375 acres, 116 acres (17%) are constrained and 257 acres (38%) are buildable land with development capacity. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Exhibit 15. Employment Acres by Classification and Plan Designation, Dallas UGB, 2020 Total Committed Constrained Buildable Plan Designation - Zone Acres Acres Acres Acres Industrial 482 155 113 213 Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas 144 135 2 7 Central Buisness District 45 44 0 1 Commercial 98 91 2 6 Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas 57 17 1 38 Barberry Node 13 2 - 11 Commercial Neighborhood 13 2 - 11 La Creole Node 39 15 0 24 Commercial General 23 5 0 18 Mixed Use 16 11 0 5 Wyatt Node 4 - 1 3 Commercial Neighborhood 4 - 1 3 Total 682 307 116 257 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of data from City of Dallas and Polk County.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 36 Exhibit 16. Employment Land by Classification with Development Constraints, Dallas UGB, 2020 Page 57 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 37 Vacant Buildable Land

The next step in the commercial and industrial buildable lands inventory was to net out portions of vacant tax lots that are unsuitable for development. Areas unsuitable for development fall into three categories: (1) developed areas of partially vacant tax lots, (2) areas with service constraints, and (3) areas with physical constraints (areas with wetlands, floodways, riparian setback areas, and steep slopes).30

Exhibit 17 shows unconstrained buildable acres for vacant and partially vacant land by plan designation. The results show that Dallas has about 213 net buildable acres of industrial land and 44 acres of commercial land. Of the commercial acres, about 38 acres (84%) are inside the Master Plan Nodal Areas.

Exhibit 17. Employment Land with Unconstrained Development Capacity (Vacant and Partially Vacant) by Plan Designation, Dallas UGB, 2020

Total Buildable Buildable Acres Buildable Acres on Plan Designation - Zone Acres on Vacant Lots Partially Vacant Lots

Industrial 213 174 40 Subtotal (Industrial) 213 174 40 Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas Central Buisness District 1 1 Commercial 6 3 2 Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas Barberry Node Commercial Neighborhood 11 11 Page 58 of 191 La Creole Node Commercial General 18 11 7 Mixed Use 5 3 3 Wyatt Node Commercial Neighborhood 3 3 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Subtotal (Commercial) 44 32 12 Total 257 205 52 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of data from City of Dallas and Polk County.

Exhibit 18 shows the size of lots by plan designations for buildable employment land. Dallas has 32 lots that are smaller than 0.5 acres (with 7 acres of land); 42 lots between 0.5 and 2 acres (44 acres of land); 8 lots between 2 and 5 acres in size (24 acres of land); 7 lots between 5 and 10

30 As of the date of this document, City of Dallas has not adopted a local wetland inventory (LWI) or conducted environmental assessment of certain properties within the UGB that are vacant and planned for industrial. The draft LWI of September 2020 indicates the potential presence of wetlands on certain properties planned for industrial. Only delineated wetlands, on record with the Department of State Lands, were removed from the buildable lands inventory (BLI). Potential presence of wetlands identified by the draft LWI were not removed from the BLI. Accordingly, the total amount of surplus industrial land (163 acres) is likely less.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 38 acres in size (50 acres of land); 4 lots between 10 and 25 acres in size (54 acres of land); and 2 lots between 25 and 50 acres in size (79 acres of land).

Exhibit 18. Lot Size by Plan Designation, Buildable Acres, Dallas UGB, 2019 Buildable Site Size 0 - 0.5 0.5 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 Plan Designation - Zone Total acres acres acres acres acres acres acres Industrial 3 8 14 11 44 54 79 213 Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas 3 2 1 - - - - 7 Central Buisness District 1 1 Commercial 2 2 1 6 Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas 1 6 11 13 6 - - 37 Barberry Node 1 1 3 6 11 LaCreole Node 1 5 10 7 23 Wyatt Node 3 3 Total Acres 7 17 27 24 50 54 79 257 Industrial 13 11 11 4 6 4 2 51 Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas 14 3 1 - - - - 18 Central Buisness District 5 5 Commercial 9 3 1 13 Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas 5 8 8 4 1 - - 26 Barberry Node 1 1 1 1 4 La Creole Node 5 7 7 2 21 Wyatt Node 1 1 Total Lots 32 22 20 8 7 4 2 95 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of data from City of Dallas and Polk County.

The analysis also considered development potential of the former Mill Site, which is shown as Potentially Redevelopable on the map in Exhibit 19. The Mill Site is about 58 total acres in size. It has substantial constraints that will make redevelopment challenging, including: areas in the floodplain, wetland areas, a portion of the Mill Site is in the riparian corridor, the southern portion of the site has slopes over 15%, a portion is identified as a brownfield, and there are Page 59 of 191 existing raised concrete slabs that will likely need to be removed to allow development. In addition, redevelopment will require removal of structures that were associated with Mill Site operation.

The EOA does not assess the magnitude of these constraints or determine the amount of land 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf within the Mill Site considered unconstrained. For the purpose of land supply analysis, the EOA concludes that the combined potential presence of these development constraints are significant enough to warrant not including the Mill site from the BLI as a site with clear redevelopment potential. The designation of Potentially Redevelopable to the Mill Site means this area is worthy of future study for redevelopment potential, and is consistent with OAR 66- 009-005(1).

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 39 Exhibit 19. Buildable Employment Land by Plan Designation with Development Constraints, Dallas UGB, 2020 Page 60 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 40 Short-Term Supply of Land

This section evaluates the short-term supply of employment land in Dallas. It begins with an overview of the policy context for this analysis, and then it evaluates the short-term land supply.

Policy Context

The Goal 9 Administrative Rule (OAR 660-009) includes provisions that require certain cities to ensure an adequate short-term supply of industrial and other employment lands. Dallas is not currently subject to this requirement, as the City is not currently within a metropolitan planning organization (MPO). Considering a short-term supply of land is useful to a city like Dallas, as it helps the City understand where there are infrastructure deficiencies that may be preventing development. OAR 660-009-005(10) defines short-term supply as

suitable land that is ready for construction within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. Engineering feasibility is sufficient to qualify land for the short-term supply of land. Funding availability is not required. "Competitive Short-term Supply" means the short-term supply of land provides a range of site sizes and locations to accommodate the market needs of a variety of industrial and other employment uses.

In summary, the rule provides guidance for cities like Dallas on assessing the short-term supply of employment land based on the criteria that land can be ready for construction within one

year. The determination is based on “engineering feasibility.” Page 61 of 191

Analysis of Short-Term Supply of Land

ECONorthwest worked with the City of Dallas staff to identify commercial and industrial land that meet the definition of short-term supply of land, using the results of the buildable lands inventory as a basis. Exhibit 17 shows that Dallas has 257 acres of unconstrained buildable land 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf on vacant and partially vacant tax lots in commercial and industrial plan designations. On these lands, we considered access to water and sanitary sewer.

The results show that 72% of all unconstrained buildable commercial and industrial land (186 acres) in Dallas is in the short-term supply.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 41 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions

This chapter presents conclusions about Dallas’s employment land sufficiency for the 2021–2041 period. The chapter then concludes with a discussion about Dallas’s land base and its ability to accommodate growth over the next 20 years, as well as recommendations for the City to consider, ensuring it meets its economic growth needs throughout the planning period. Land Sufficiency

Exhibit 20 shows commercial and industrial land sufficiency within the Dallas UGB. It shows:

. Vacant unconstrained land from Exhibit 17 within the UGB. Exhibit 20 shows that Dallas has 213 gross acres of industrial land and 45 gross acres of commercial land.

. The inventory of unconstrained vacant land is shown in Exhibit 17, which was reviewed and approved by the TAC at the July 21, 2020, meeting and City Council at the August 3, 2020, work session. . Demand for commercial and industrial land from Exhibit 11. Exhibit 20 shows Dallas will need a total of 50 gross acres for industrial uses and 138 gross acres for commercial uses over the 2021–2041 period.

. The demand for commercial and industrial land is based on the forecast of employment growth at 1.61% in Exhibit 9 and the mix of employment in Exhibit 10. Page 62 of 191 These assumptions were reviewed and approved by the TAC at the July 21, 2020, meeting and City Council at the August 3, 2020, work session.

. The conversion of employment to acres of land demand is based on the analysis in Exhibit 11. Exhibit 20 shows that Dallas has: 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

. A 163-acre surplus of industrial land. . A 94-acre deficit of commercial land. Exhibit 20. Comparison of the Capacity of Unconstrained Vacant Land with Employment Land Demand by Land Use Type, Dallas UGB, 2021–2041 Land Land Supply Land Demand Sufficiency Comprehensive Plan Designation (Suitable Gross (Gross Acres) Acres) (Deficit, Gross Acres) Industrial 213 50 163 Commercial (incl. Central Business District) 44 138 (94) Source: ECONorthwest

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 42 A consideration of site needs and the supply of buildable land by site sizes (Exhibit 18) suggests that Dallas has sufficient sites to accommodate the forecast of growth for industrial land. Dallas does not have enough commercial land to accommodate employment growth, but it can accommodate the deficit within the existing UGB through the following actions:

. Plan or zone changes to industrial or residential land; . accommodate complementary commercial employment in industrial areas; . and redevelop existing commercial land to allow more employment. Conclusions

The conclusions about commercial and industrial land sufficiency are:

. Dallas has a surplus of industrial-designated land. Dallas has about 163 acres more of unconstrained vacant industrial land than the forecast shows will be needed over the 20- year planning period. Even if a large, exogenous development such as Mint Valley Paper occurs, Dallas will have a surplus of about 125 acres of unconstrained vacant industrial land beyond the forecasted need.31 . Dallas has a deficit of land planned for commercial uses that can be accommodated within the existing UGB. Dallas has a deficit of about 94 acres of commercial land need for development over the 20-year planning period. Dallas does not need to immediately address that deficit of commercial land need. Dallas would do well to gradually address

the commercial land need over time through identifying opportunities for commercial Page 63 of 191 land development in areas of five to ten (or even 20) acres at a time.

The City should carefully consider whether and how to address the commercial land deficit in the context of other community policies. For example, existing Policy 1 of

Chapter 2.3 describes the need for preserving prime industrial sites to provide a choice 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf among sites for new industrial development prior to actual demand. While Dallas has a surplus of industrial land that could conceivably change to commercial, reducing the commercial deficit in part, certain industrial properties are observed to have ideal access to rail, arterial streets, and utilities constructed to provide higher levels of service capacity. Changing prime industrial sites to a commercial plan designation could impact the limited surplus shown for larger size parcels that are planned and zoned industrial. . Dallas’s vacant commercial and industrial land varies in size to accommodate a wide range of development opportunities, but few properties of significant size remain to

31 As of the date of this document, City of Dallas has not adopted a local wetland inventory (LWI) or conducted environmental assessment of certain properties within the UGB that are vacant and planned for industrial. The draft LWI of September 2020 indicates the potential presence of wetlands on certain properties planned for industrial. Only delineated wetlands, on record with the Department of State Lands, were removed from the buildable lands inventory (BLI). Potential presence of wetlands identified by the draft LWI were not removed from the BLI. Accordingly, the total amount of surplus industrial land (163 acres) is likely less.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 43 accommodate targeted growth industries. Dallas’s unconstrained vacant commercial and industrial land is in a wide range of site sizes, including six industrial sites larger than 10 acres, as well as many sites smaller than two acres. Dallas’s land base provides opportunities for a wide range of development on industrial land. As Exhibit 18 shows, Dallas has only two vacant lots between 25 and 50 acres in size. As certain target growth industries are dependent on large parcel size (25 to 50 acres) Dallas should consider preserving large acreage parcels that are planned industrial. Dallas has fewer opportunities for commercial development larger than two acres, most of which are located in the Master Plan Nodal Areas. . Dallas will need to address key infrastructure needs, especially in the Master Plan Nodal Areas. About 37 acres of the unconstrained buildable commercial land in Dallas is in the Master Plan Nodal Areas—the Barberry, La Creole, and Wyatt Nodes. Some of these areas, such as the La Creole Node, are currently zoned for low-density residential uses. These areas are planned for higher density residential and mixed uses, including commercial, and the City will need to align the infrastructure needs for these uses for future development. The primary need for infrastructure development in the La Creole Node is the extension of sanitary sewer. . Dallas’s wages are lower than the regional average. Dallas’s average wage of $36,962 is lower than the average of $37,902 for Polk County. Dallas’s potential growth industries generally have above average wages, except for certain types of services for residents and visitors, such as retail.

Recommended Actions Page 64 of 191

Following are ECONorthwest’s recommendations for actions for Dallas based on the analysis and conclusions in this report. The broadest recommended action is to update the Economy Element of the Comprehensive Plan. The broadest of these recommended actions calls for

updating policies identified in Chapter 2, Volume 1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. Existing 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf policies identified in Chapter 2 of Volume 1 were updated, as part of the EOA project, and were initially reviewed by the Dallas EOA Technical Advisory Committee for input. Dallas City Council also carefully considered these policies in concert with EOA preparation. These policies were also subject to final consideration by the Dallas City Council prior to taking final action on the EOA of 2020.

The recommended actions that are presented in this section should not be confused with policies identified in Chapter 2, Volume 1 of the Comprehensive Plan. The actions in this section intended as a means for implementing policies and are not considered applicable in review of Quasi-Judicial land use decisions.

Industrial Development

ECONorthwest recommends that the City consider the following actions to implement the industrial development policies in the revised Economic Element of the Dallas Comprehensive

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 44 Plan. Potential actions for zoning code changes to implement industrial development policies include:

. Zoning code changes that include evaluating making changes to:

. Ensure that the target industries identified in the EOA are shown as permitted outright in the industrial zone of the Dallas Development Code.

. Ensure development standards and site design standards of Dallas Development Code specific to the industrial zone are clear, objective, and reasonable for businesses, such as those in target industries, to fulfill in concert with a process that allows for faster and easier administrative review and approval.

. Review the site layout and design standards of the industrial zone as described in the Development Code, in particular standards that pertain to development compatibility. Consider clarifying what constitutes an adverse impact, to ensure standards are clear and objective. . Encourage property owners to get sites certified as development ready through Business Oregon’s Certified Shovel Ready program, to demonstrate that utilities are available to serve sites at volume and capacity able to accommodate target industries. . Assist and encourage landowners with brownfields or suspected brownfields on their properties to access state and federal funds for brownfield identification and clean up, where appropriate. This may be done as part of certification through Business Oregon’s Certified Shovel Ready program.

Commercial Development Page 65 of 191

ECONorthwest recommends that the City consider the following actions to implement the commercial development policies in the revised Economic Element of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. Potential actions to identify and plan for new commercial areas include: 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf . Evaluate the amount of land planned for commercial within the three Master Plan Nodes to determine if area is sufficient and suitable for providing a variety of commercial services as needed in these developing areas and “a small shopping center” as identified for the Barberry and Wyatt Node commercial areas (Chapter 2.6 of the Dallas Development Code). . Support development and business activity in the Central Business District through:

. Continue implementation of urban renewal grants for façade improvement and redevelopment of buildings.

. Develop a downtown parking plan, which may include creating a local improvement district (LID) or an economic improvement district (EID) to support development of parking.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 45 . Identify opportunities for infill and other development in the Central Business District and use tools such as Urban Renewal, an LID or EID, or other tools to support development of the infrastructure or lower or remove development barriers.

. Identify opportunities to work with property owners to reduce vacancies in downtown and encourage businesses to locate in downtown. The City maintains a digital inventory of buildings with vacancies in downtown, which can be shared with real estate professionals. In addition the City could consider implement assistance or programs to help make downtown buildings more attractive for development, such as grants or loans for building improvements.

. Support and sponsor events that occur within the downtown. . Evaluate unmet need for retail and services (such as potential need for an additional grocery store) in Dallas, through development of a market analysis that includes a retail leakage analysis. This analysis will help the City understand unmet needs for retail and services and Dallas. . The following are actions to support development of the mixed use nodes.

. Rezone land in the La Creole Node for consistency with the Comprehensive Plan Map designations in concert with forming a Local Improvement District to extend essential facilities through public-private partnerships. . Outside the Nodes, explore the potential to expand the existing Commercial Neighborhood zone that surrounds West Valley Hospital on SE Washington Street and SE Uglow Avenue. A larger area may provide more opportunities to expand existing Page 66 of 191 medical services offered in this area. . Outside the Nodes, explore the potential for a new Commercial Neighborhood zone in the southwest portion of the city, possibly at the intersection of SW Oakdale Avenue and SW Fairview Avenue. To the south of SW Oakdale Avenue are several large parcels

planned residential that could be subdivided in the future. West of SW Fairview 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Avenue, along SW Oakdale Avenue, are several large parcels planned residential in the Dallas UGB that could be subdivided after annexation. As essential services become available, construction of new residential in this area is expected to create new demands for local services, and the nearest commercial zone (SW Fairview Avenue and SW Maple Street) is currently developed with a small convenience market. . Evaluate the need for zoning code amendments to allow for future development or expansion of the West Valley Hospital. The code amendment(s) could include adding “medical centers” as an allowed use in commercial districts. Economic Development

ECONorthwest recommends that the City consider the following actions to implement economic development policies in the revised Economic Element of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan:

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 46 . The following actions are about coordination and collaboration on economic development efforts.

. Coordinate economic development efforts with cities in the region and local and regional economic development organizations, including but not limited to SEDCOR, Polk County, the Dallas Chamber of Commerce, Business Oregon, the Regional Solutions team, and the Dallas Downtown Association. In addition, coordinate economic development with regional private utilities, such as Pacific Power and Northwest Natural Gas, Spectrum, and Willamette Valley Fiber.

. Coordinate economic development efforts with other cities and counties in the Mid- Willamette Valley region, through participation in SEDCOR.

. City staff should work with Dallas Chamber of Commerce, reach out to businesses in Dallas, and identify problems and barriers to economic development.

. The City could develop a code audit to identify opportunities for changes to industrial and commercial development standards that could increase industrial or commercial development in Dallas. Through this process, the City could act as a convener to bring economic development partners’ perspective into the code audit.

. Work with SEDCOR and other partners on recruitment efforts to attract and retain businesses, including identifying barriers to business growth and propose solutions to lower or remove the barriers. . The following action focuses on workforce training:

. Act as a convener to support discussions about workforce training needs between Page 67 of 191 businesses and regional partners involved in workforce development, such as the Dallas School District, Willamette Workforce Partnership, Western Oregon University, and Chemeketa Community College. Through these discussions, connect companies with training resources to support workforce development.

. Promote and support diversification of Dallas’s economic base through the following 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf actions:

. Develop a 5-year Economic Development Strategy using data on local and regional economic trends gathered through the Economic Opportunity Analysis, from goals established in the Comprehensive Plan and from interviews with local citizens, business owners, schools, and professionals. The Economic Development Strategy should have a broader focus than land use, considering issues such as workforce development and collaborating with businesses to support business growth.

. The City should work with economic development stakeholders (such as those identified above) and regional partners to market commercial and industrial sites in Dallas to encourage economic growth.

. Support development of businesses that require skilled staff, such as high tech businesses, engineering, design businesses, and medical services.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 47 . Identify opportunities to support growth of businesses that provide jobs at or above the county average wage.

. Work with regional and local partners to support small business growth and entrepreneurship to grow and retain businesses in Dallas. This may include future development of coworker office space or a business incubator in Dallas. . Evaluate the potential use of incentives to attract businesses to Dallas, such as:

. Continue to use the enterprise zone tax abatement to attract and expand businesses to Dallas. Continue to offer incentives to businesses that have been authorized to receive enterprise zone benefits, such as $5,000 credit per employee for system development charge payments and building permit payment associated with building activities.

. Continue to offer the Strategic Investment Program to attract businesses who will make large capital investments in Dallas. This program grants a 15-year property tax exemption on a large portion of capital investments to enable large, capital-intensive facilities

. Promote the use of the opportunity zone in Dallas to support economic development. The opportunity zone includes parts of northeast Dallas. The City could act as a convener to connect property owners within the opportunity zone with opportunity zone investors and developers.

. Evaluate opportunities to mitigate wetlands constraints in Dallas, such as participating in or establishing a wetland mitigation bank. Page 68 of 191 Land Monitoring and Infrastructure Development

ECONorthwest recommends that the City consider the following actions to implement the land monitoring and infrastructure development policies in the revised Economic Element of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. Potential actions for land monitoring and infrastructure 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf development include:

. The following actions are related to monitoring and replenishing the supply of land as it develops. . Develop and implement a system to monitor the supply of commercial and industrial lands. This includes monitoring commercial and industrial development (through permits) as well as land consumption (e.g., development on vacant or redevelopable lands). . Periodically update the Economic Opportunities Analysis in coordination with other infrastructure master plans, to evaluate development of Dallas’s target industries and buildable lands inventory to track employment growth and changes in Dallas, improvements to infrastructure, and changes in the regional economy occur.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 48 . Provide for an adequate short-term supply of suitable commercial and industrial land to respond to economic development opportunities as they arise. “Short-term supply” means suitable land that is ready for construction usually within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. As commercial and industrial sites develop, especially sites larger than five acres, the City should plan for replenishment of land in the short-term supply through the capital improvement planning process. . Evaluate whether changes are needed to Dallas’s urban growth management agreement with Polk County. . Review circumstances identified in this agreement that allow interim urban utility services without annexing to the city. . Coordinate capital improvement planning to ensure infrastructure availability on industrial land and continue to pursue funding for needed infrastructure to support economic development activities.

. Develop plans that ensure that infrastructure is available to support development in commercial and industrial areas. This is especially important for the La Creole Node, as a large barrier to development in the node is lack of sanitary sewer infrastructure.

. Work with partners such as Business Oregon to advocate for state funding to support infrastructure development.

. Coordinate with developers and private utility providers (such as power companies or natural gas companies) to ensure that need for private utilities is understood and Page 69 of 191 can be accommodated.

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 49 Appendix A. National, State, and Regional and Local Trends

The economic trends discussed in this appendix are based on long-term trends that are generally expected to continue on national, state, and regional scales. During the development of this document, the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic began to emerge. However, the availability of data and the potential change in long-term effects remain unknown. Where available, this appendix provides data and discussion about the short-term economic effects of the pandemic. National Trends

Economic development in Dallas over the next 20 years will occur in the context of long-run national trends. The most important of these trends are as follows:

. Economic growth was forecasted to continue at a slow pace over the course of the next decade, but the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have ended the nation’s longest period of economic expansion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously predicted that real GDP would grow by 2.2% in 2020, followed by stagnation in later years as growth in private investment and consumer spending lessened. From 2021 to 2030, CBO forecasted that output would increase at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent.32 However, in March 2020, business closures related to the novel coronavirus Page 70 of 191 forced the nation into a recession. According to CBO’s preliminary estimates, unemployment is expected to surpass 10% during the second quarter of 2020 due to sharp increases in unemployment claims. Additionally, GDP will likely decline by more than 7% during the second quarter, leading to a fall in the annualized growth rate of at 33

least 28%. The fiscal stimulus, as well as the federal government’s efforts to maintain 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf operations for essential businesses, will likely mitigate the fallout of the virus. An estimated 70% of GDP is derived from businesses exempt from stay-at-home orders and half of non-exempt businesses are able to continue their operations remotely.34 Importantly, long-term projections are highly variable as the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds. . The aging of the baby boomer generation accompanied by increases in life expectancy. As the baby boomer generation continues to retire, the number of Social

32 Congressional Budget Office. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030. January 2020. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56020. 33 Swagel, P. (2020, April 2). Updating CBO’s Economic Forecast to Account for the Pandemic. Congressional Budget Office. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314. 34 Caldwell, P., and Andersen, K. (2020). Coronavirus Update: Long-Term Economic Impact Forecast to Be Less Than 2008 Recession. Morningstar, Inc. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term- economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 50 Security recipients is expected to increase from almost 65 million in 2020 to over 88 million in 2045, a 36.5% increase. But due to lower birth-rate replacement generations, the number of covered workers is only expected to increase 10.3% over the same time period, from over 178 million to almost 197 million in 2045. In 2020, there are 36 Social Security beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, but by 2045, there will be 45 beneficiaries per 100 covered workers. This will increase the percent of the federal budget dedicated to Social Security and Medicare.35 Baby boomers are expecting to work longer than previous generations. An increasing proportion of workers 55 and older expect to work after age 65.36 This trend can be seen in Oregon, where the share of workers 65 years and older grew from 2.9% of the workforce in 2000 to 4.1% of the workforce in 2010. In 2018, this share increased to 5.6%, or a 94% increase over the 2000 to 2018 period. Over the same eighteen-year period, workers 45 to 64 years decreased by about 2%.37 . Need for replacement workers. The need for workers to replace retiring baby boomers will outpace job growth. Between 2018 and 2028, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates that total employment in the United States will grow by about 8.4 million jobs. Over this same period, BLS forecasts an annual average of 19.7 million occupational openings, indicating that the number of job openings per year exceeds expected employment growth. About 78% of annual job openings are in occupations that do not require postsecondary education.38 . The importance of education as a determinant of wages and household income. According to BLS, a majority of the fastest growing occupations will require an

academic degree, and on average, they will yield higher incomes than occupations that Page 71 of 191 do not require a degree. The fastest growing occupations requiring an academic degree will be occupational therapy assistants, information security analysts, physician assistants, statisticians, nurse practitioners, and speech language pathologists. Of the top 10 fastest-growing occupations, the top four do not require an academic degree. From

2018 to 2028, the fastest-growing occupations are solar photovoltaic installers, wind 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf turbine service technicians, home health aides, and personal care aides. However, these nondegree-requiring occupations yield lower incomes than the other six occupations. Five sectors are projected to decline from 2018 to 2028. These include manufacturing, federal government, utilities, wholesale trade, and retail trade. The BLS estimates that

35 The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, 2015, The 2018 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, June 5, 2018. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2018/tr2018.pdf. 36 The Employee Benefit Research Institute. Retirement Confidence Survey, 2016 RCS Fact Sheet #4. https://www.ebri.org/docs/default-source/rcs/4_rcs_16-fs-4_age.pdf?sfvrsn=56e8302f_2. 37 Analysis of 2000 Decennial Census data, 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, and 2018 U.S. Census American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, for the table Sex by Age by Employment Status for the Population 16 Years and Over. 38 Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2019). Occupational Employment Projections to 2018-2028. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 51 retail trade will decrease by 153,700 positions, possibly due to the rise of e-commerce. Conversely, this shift in shopper preference is increasing occupations in transportation and warehousing.39 Retail positions typically have lower pay than occupations requiring an academic degree. The national median income for people over the age of 25 in 2019 was about $48,464. Workers without a high school diploma earned $19,708 less than the median income, while those with a high school diploma earned $10,504 less than the median income. Workers with some college earned $6,760 less than median income, and workers with a bachelor’s degree earned $13,832 more than median. Workers in Oregon experience the same patterns as the nation, but pay is generally lower in Oregon than the national average.40 . Increases in labor productivity. Productivity, as measured by output per hour of labor input, increased in most sectors between 2000 and 2010, peaking in 2007. However, productivity increases were interrupted by the recession. After productivity decreases from 2007 to 2009, many industries saw large productivity increases from 2009 to 2010. Industries with the fastest productivity growth were information technology–related industries. These include wireless telecommunications carriers, computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing, electronics and appliance stores, and commercial equipment manufacturing wholesalers.41 Since the end of the recession (or 2010), labor productivity has increased across a handful of large sectors but has also decreased in others. In wholesale trade, productivity—measured in output per hour—increased by 19% over 2009 to 2017. Retail trade gained even more productivity over this period at 25%. Food services, however, have remained stagnant since 2009, fluctuating over the nine-year period and shrinking Page 72 of 191 by 0.01% over this time frame. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports multifactor productivity in manufacturing has been slowing down 0.3% per year over the 2004 to 2016 period. Much of this, they note, is due to slowdown in semiconductors, other electrical component manufacturing, and computer and peripheral equipment 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf manufacturing.42

. The importance of entrepreneurship and growth in small businesses. According to the 2019 Small Business Profile from the U.S. Small Business Office of Advocacy, small businesses account for over 99 percent of total businesses in the United States, and their

39 Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2019). Occupational Employment Projections to 2018-2028. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf. 40 Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2019). Occupational Employment Projections to 2018-2028. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf. 41 Brill, M.R., & Rowe, S.T. (March 2013). Industry Labor Productivity Trends from 2000 to 2010. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Spotlight on Statistics. 42 Brill, M., Chanksy, B., & Kim, J. (July 2018). Multifactor productivity slowdown in US manufacturing. Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/article/multifactor-productivity- slowdown-in-us-manufacturing.htm.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 52 employees account for nearly 47% of American workers.43 The National League of Cities suggests ways that local governments can attract entrepreneurs and increase the number of small businesses, including strong leadership from elected officials; better communication with entrepreneurs, especially regarding the regulatory environment for businesses in the community; and partnerships with colleges, universities, small business development centers, mentorship programs, community groups, businesses groups, and financial institutions.44 . Increases in automation across sectors. Automation is a long-running trend in employment, with increases in automation (and corresponding increases in productivity) over the last century and longer. The pace of automation is increasing, and the types of jobs likely to be automated over the next 20 years (or longer) are broadening. Lower-paying jobs are more likely to be automated, with the potential for automation of more than 80% of jobs paying less than $20 per hour over the next 20 years. About 30% of jobs paying $20 to $40 per hour, and 4% of jobs paying $40 or more, are at risk of being automated over the next 20 years.45 Low to middle-skilled jobs that require interpersonal interaction, flexibility, adaptability, and problem solving will likely persist into the future, as will occupations in technologically lagging sectors (e.g., production of restaurant meals, cleaning services, hair care, security/protective services, and personal fitness).46 This includes occupations such as (1) recreational therapists, (2) first-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers, (3) emergency management directors, (4) mental health and substance abuse social workers, (5) audiologists, (6) occupational therapists, (7) orthotists and

prosthetists, (8) health-care social workers, (9) oral and maxillofacial surgeons, and (10) Page 73 of 191 first-line supervisors of firefighting and prevention workers. Occupations in the service and agricultural or manufacturing industry are most at-risk of automation because of the manual-task nature of the work.47,48,49 This includes occupations such as (1) telemarketers, (2) title examiners, abstractors, and searchers, (3)

hand sewers, (4) mathematical technicians, (5) insurance underwriters, (6) watch 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

43 U.S. Small Business Office of Advocacy. (2019). 2019 Small Business Profile. https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp- content/uploads/2019/04/23142719/2019-Small-Business-Profiles-US.pdf 44 National League of Cities. (2012). Supporting Entrepreneurs and Small Businesses. https://www.nlc.org/supporting-entrepreneurs-and-small-business 45 Executive Office of the President. (2016). Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy. 46 Autor, D.H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. 47 Frey, C.B, & Osborne, M.A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. 48 Otekhile, C.A., & Zeleny, M. (2016). Self Service Technologies: A Cause of Unemployment. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Knowledge, 4(1). DOI: 10.1515/ijek-2016-0005. 49 PwC. (n.d.). Will robots really steal our jobs? An international analysis of the potential long-term impact of automation. https://www.pwc.com/hu/hu/kiadvanyok/assets/pdf/impact_of_automation_on_jobs.pdf.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 53 repairers, (7) cargo and freight agents, (8) tax preparers, (9) photographic process workers and processing machine operators, and (10) accounts clerks.50 . Continued transformation of retail.51 In the last two decades, retail sales by e-commerce and warehouse clubs/supercenters (a lower-cost model to the traditional department store) have increased steadily, pulling the industry in two different directions. On one hand, the trend toward warehouse/supercenters is increasing the average scale of retail operations, increasing market concentrations, reducing business dynamism, and shifting retail activity toward more populated areas. On the other hand, the trend toward e- commerce generates “smaller [retailers], less market concentration, more geographical dispersion, and higher productivity.”52 Since 2000, e-commerce sales grew from 0.9% of total retail sales to 9.7% (2018). Over this same period, e-commerce retail sales have grown at a rate of 18% per year.53 It is reasonable to expect this trend to continue and will be accelerated by requirements to stay at home during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ultimately, the growth in online shopping and the increasing dominance of large supercenters has made it difficult for small and medium-sized retail firms (offering a narrower selection of goods) to compete. Declining net profits and increased competitive pressures have led many well-known retailers (e.g., J.C. Penney, Macy’s, Sears) to declare bankruptcy or to scale back their operations. In the future, the importance of e-commerce will likely continue to grow, and despite the highly publicized closures of brick-and-mortar stores, physical retail is likely to remain an important part of the retail sector. In fact, retail sales at brick-and-mortar stores accounted for almost 90% of all retail sales in the Q3 of 2019.54 Modern consumers are increasingly price sensitive, less brand loyal, and (since the advent of internet) able to substitute between retailers easily. To compete, retailers must Page 74 of 191 be nimble, adept in recognizing the changing needs of their consumers, and quick to differentiate themselves from their competitors. . Opportunities for local retail and service. The types of retail and related services that remain will likely be sales of goods that people prefer to purchase in person or that are 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf difficult to ship and return (e.g., large furniture), specialty goods, groceries and personal goods that maybe needed immediately, restaurants, and experiences (e.g., entertainment or social experiences). According to the Urban Land Institute, in the post-disruption era of retail, new trends in this sector are beginning to emerge. These changes include the

50 Frey, C.B., & Osborne, M.A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. 51 Ali Hortaçsu and Chad Syverson. (2015). The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(4), 89–112. 52 Ali Hortaçsu and Chad Syverson. (2015). The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(4), 89–112, p. 109. 53 U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade, Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report. Retrieved from: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html#ecommerce 54 Per data from the U.S. Census Bureau, cited in Deloitte’s 2020 Retail Industry Outlook.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 54 convergence of technology and shopping, as businesses focus on brand awareness and customer engagement via digital channels in the physical retail space.55 . The importance of high-quality natural resources. The relationship between natural resources and local economies has changed as the economy has shifted away from resource extraction. High-quality natural resources continue to be important in some states, especially in the western United States. Increases in the population and in household incomes, plus changes in tastes and preferences, have dramatically increased demands for outdoor recreation, scenic vistas, clean water, and other resource-related amenities. Such amenities contribute to a region’s quality of life and play an important role in attracting both households and firms.56 . Continued increase in demand for energy. While energy prices were unusually low in early 2020, energy prices are forecasted to increase over the planning period. While energy use per capita is expected to decrease through 2050, total energy consumption will increase with the rising population (0.2%). Energy consumption is expected to grow primarily from industrial (0.7%) and, to a lesser extent, commercial users (0.2%). Residential and transportation consumption are forecasted to decrease (-0.2%). This decrease in energy consumption for transportation is primarily due to increased federal standards and increased technology for energy efficiency in vehicles. Going forward through the projection period, potential changes in federal laws (such as decreases in car emissions) leave energy demand somewhat uncertain. Energy consumption by type of fuel is expected to change over the planning period. By 2050, the United States will continue to shift from crude oil toward natural gas and renewables. For example, from 2018 to 2050, the Energy Information Administration Page 75 of 191 projects that overall energy consumption in the United States will average a 0.2% annual growth rate, while consumption of renewable sources grows at 1.6% per year. With increases in energy efficiency, strong domestic production of energy, and relatively flat demand for energy by some industries, the United States will be able to be a net exporter of energy over the 2018 to 2050 period. Demand for electricity is expected to increase 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf (0.2%) from 2018 to 2050 as the population grows and economic activity increases.57 . Impact of rising energy prices on commuting patterns. As energy prices increase over the planning period, energy consumption for transportation will decrease. These increasing energy prices may decrease willingness to commute long distances, though with expected increases in fuel economy, it could be that people commute further while

55 Diane Hoskins. “Three Trends Shaping Retail’s Great Transformation.” Urban Land Institute, September 3, 2019. https://urbanland.uli.org/economy-markets-trends/three-trends-shaping-retails-great-transformation/ 56 For a more thorough discussion of relevant research, see, for example, Power, T.M. and R.N. Barrett. 2001. Post- Cowboy Economics: Pay and Prosperity in the New American West. Island Press, and Kim, K.-K., D.W. Marcouiller, and S.C. Deller. 2005. “Natural Amenities and Rural Development: Understanding Spatial and Distributional Attributes.” Growth and Change 36 (2): 273-297. 57 Energy Information Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, U.S. Department of Energy, January 2019. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/aeo2019.pdf. Note, the cited growth rates are shown in the interactive tables and can be viewed here: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 55 consuming less energy.58 Over 2019 to 2035, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates in its forecast that the decline in transportation energy consumption as a result of increasing fuel economy more than offsets the total growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). VMT for passenger vehicles is forecasted to increase through 2050. . Potential impacts of global climate change. The consensus among the scientific community that global climate change is occurring expounds important ecological, social, and economic consequences over the next decades and beyond.59 Extensive research shows that Oregon and other western states have already experienced noticeable changes in climate and that more change will occur in the future.60 In the Pacific Northwest, climate change is likely to (1) increase average annual temperatures, (2) increase the number and duration of heat waves, (3) increase the amount of precipitation falling as rain during the year, (4) increase the intensity of rainfall events, (5) increase sea level, (6) increase wildfire frequency, and (7) increase forest vulnerability to tree disease.61 These changes are also likely to reduce winter snowpack and shift the timing of spring runoff earlier in the year.62 The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) evaluated potential scenarios for “Climate Change Influence on Natural Hazards in Oregon Counties” in 2018. OCCRI specifically focused on Counties in the Gorge and Eastern Oregon and evaluated the potential increased or decreased risk for natural hazards such as heat waves, cold waves, heavy rains, river flooding, drought, wildfire, poor air quality, windstorms, dust storms, increased invasive species, and loss of wetland ecosystems. Across the eight counties evaluated, the hazards most likely to increase with the effects of climate change are heat

waves, heavy rains, river flooding, wildfires, increased invasive species, and loss of Page 76 of 191 wetland ecosystems.63

58 Energy Information Administration, 2019, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050, U.S. Department of Energy, January 2019.

59 U.S. Global Change Research Program. National Climate Assessment. 2018. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 60 Oregon Global Warming Commission. 2018 Biennial Report to the Legislature. 2018. https://www.keeporegoncool.org/reports/ 61 U.S. Global Change Research Program. National Climate Assessment. “Chapter 24: Northwest.” 2018. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/24/ 62 Mote, P., Salathe, E., Duliere, V., & Jump, E. (2008). Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. March. http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/moteetal2008scenarios628.pdf; Littell, J.S., McGuire Elsner, M., Whitely Binder, L.C., and Snover, A.K. (eds). (2009). “The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate - Executive Summary.” In The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciaexecsummary638.pdf; Madsen, T., & Figdor, E. (2007). When it Rains, it Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States. Environment America Research & Policy Center and Frontier Group.; Mote, P.W. (2006). Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. Journal of Climate, 19(23), 6209-6220. 63 Mote, P.W., Abatzoglou, J., Dello, K.D., Hegewisch, K., & Rupp, D.E. (2019). Fourth Oregon Climate Assessment Report. Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. occri.net/ocar4; Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. Climate Change Influence on Natural Hazards in Eight Oregon Counties. August 2018. https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/CL/Documents/OCCRI_PDM16_AllCountyOverview2018.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 56 These anticipated changes point toward some of the ways that climate change is likely to impact ecological systems and the goods and services they provide. There is considerable uncertainty about how long it would take for some of the impacts to materialize and the magnitude of the associated economic consequences. Assuming climate change proceeds as today’s models predict, the Pacific Northwest will experience potential economic impacts:64  Potential impact on agriculture and forestry. Climate change may impact Oregon’s agriculture through changes in growing season, temperature ranges, and water availability.65 Climate change may impact Oregon’s forestry through an increase in wildfires, a decrease in the rate of tree growth, a change in the mix of tree species, and increases in diseases and pests that damage trees.66  Potential impact on tourism and recreation. Impacts on tourism and recreation may range from (1) decreases in snow-based recreation if snowpack in the Cascades decreases, (2) negative impacts to tourism along the Oregon Coast as a result of damage and beach erosion from rising sea levels,67 (3) negative impacts on availability of summer river recreation (e.g., river rafting or sports fishing) as a result of lower summer river flows, and (4) negative impacts on the availability of water for domestic and business uses. Short-term national trends will also affect economic growth in the region, but these trends are difficult to predict. At times, these trends may run counter to the long-term trends described above. A recent example is the recession following the global COVID-19 pandemic. Despite efforts to mitigate the economic fallout from the virus by lowering

interest rates and implementing federal stimulus packages, unemployment rates have risen Page 77 of 191 10.3 percentage points to 14.7% as of April 2020.68 While job losses have occurred in all major sectors, the sharpest declines have been in the airline, leisure and hospitality, casinos and gambling, automotive parts and equipment, and oil and gas drilling industries.69 As

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 64 The issue of global climate change is complex and there is a substantial amount of uncertainty about climate change. This discussion is not intended to describe all potential impacts of climate change but to present a few ways that climate change may impact the economy of cities in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest. 65 Resource Innovations & Institute for a Sustainable Environment. (2005). The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon: A Preliminary Assessment. https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/2299/Consensus_report.pdf?sequence=1 66 Climate Leadership Initiative & Institute for Sustainable Environment. (2007). Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Resources in Oregon: A Preliminary Analysis. 67 Resource Innovations & Institute for a Sustainable Environment. (2005). The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon: A Preliminary Assessment. https://scholarsbank.uoregon.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1794/2299/Consensus_report.pdf?sequence=1 68 This is the highest unemployment rate and largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series with seasonally adjusted data reported since 1948. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2020, May 8). The Employment Situation – April 2020. News Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved from: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf. 69 Kumar, N., and Haydon, D. (2020, April 7). Industries Most and Least Impacted by COVID 19 from a Probability of Default Perspective March 2020 Update. S&P Global.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 57 these industries recover, they will continue to play a significant role in the national, state, and local economy over the long run. This report takes a long-run perspective on economic conditions (as the Goal 9 requirements intend) and does not attempt to predict the impacts of short-run national business cycles on employment or economic activity. State Trends

Short-Term Trends

According to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), the Oregon economy is in a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting statewide shutdowns.70 Although OEA’s June 2020 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast stated that the current recession would be shorter than the Great Recession, the severity would be the deepest on record since 1939. As the economy begins to reopen in phases through 2020, the agency expects the economy to return to near prerecession levels by the middle of the 2020 decade.71

Preliminary unemployment estimates in March and April 2020 indicate that approximately 267,000 jobs were lost statewide due to the pandemic.72 This resulted in an unemployment rate increase from 3.8% in both January and February 2020 to 14.8% in April 2020, a difference of 11 percentage points.73 As of May 2020, job losses were highest among workers with lower pay and lower for highly paid workers.

The OEA forecasts that there will be strong growth in the latter half of 2020, and though the agency anticipates a sizable rebound in economic activity, it expects a full recovery will take much longer, with jobs returning to early 2020 levels by mid-2024. To illustrate the impact of Page 78 of 191 this rebound, OEA reported that it may take Oregon to depression levels similar to those seen in the state’s early 1980s depression or the Great Recession.74

In 2019, Oregon’s average wage was at its highest point since the 1980s. Though the OEA forecasts an annual average wage increase of 4.5% in 2020, the agency estimates wages will 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf contract by 0.1% in 2021 before growing by 3.0% in 2022, 4.2% in 2023, and 4.4% in 2024.75

By the end of 2020, the OEA forecasts 225,100 jobs in Oregon’s economy will be lost. This is an approximate 11.6% annual decrease in total nonfarm employment relative to 2019 levels.76

70 Office of Economic Analysis. (2020). Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2020. Vol. XL, No. 2, p. 1. https://www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Documents/forecast0620.pdf. 71 Ibid, p. 1. 72 Ibid, p. 3. 73 Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), Unemployment Rate estimates for the State of Oregon. Data retrieved on May 28, 2020. 74 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2020. Vol. XL, No. 2, p. 4. 75 Ibid, p. 32. 76 Ibid, p. 32.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 58 Every employment sector, with the exception of government, is forecasted to decrease. The impacts on the leisure and hospitality sector are forecasted to be the most severe with a 29.7% contraction, or approximately 81,500 jobs lost. Construction and manufacturing are forecasted to lose 16,700 (15.3% decrease) and 30,900 (15.6% decrease) jobs, respectively. Furthermore, retail trade is forecasted to lose nearly 13,600 jobs in 2020 (or decrease by 13.6%).77

Oregon’s household formation rate will be weaker over the medium term due to income loss, economic uncertainty, and in-migration reduction.78 Housing starts in 2019 reached approximately 21,000 units. Through the end of 2020, however, the OEA forecasts a 21.7% contraction in housing starts for a total of about 16,200 units. In the years following the recession, they anticipate a partial recovery of housing starts in 2021 (3.0% increase), with growth increasing in velocity in 2022 (13.3% increase) and 2023 (13.1% increase) before settling to about 2.3% in 2024.79

Oregon’s economic health is dependent on the export market, which are also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The value of Oregon exports in 2017 was $22.3 billion. In 2019, the countries that Oregon exported the most to were China (31% of total Oregon exports), Canada (14%), Japan (7%), South Korea (6%), Malaysia (6%), and Vietnam (5%).80 Any strains on the relationship between the United States and China could impact Oregon’s economy.81 Additionally, China’s public debt burden poses a threat not only to the state and region but also to the global economy.82

Long-Term Trends

State, regional, and local trends will also affect economic development in Dallas over the next 20 Page 79 of 191 years. The most important of these trends includes continued in-migration from other states, distribution of population and employment across the state, and change in the types of industries in Oregon.

. Continued in-migration from other states. Oregon will continue to experience in- 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf migration (more people moving to Oregon than from Oregon) from other states, especially California and Washington, though to a lesser degree given the recession. From 1990 to 2017, Oregon’s population increased by over 1.3 million, 66% of which was from people moving into Oregon (net migration). The average annual increase in population from net migration over the same time period was about 33,128. During the

77 Ibid, p. 32. 78 Ibid, p. 10. 79 Ibid, p. 32. 80 United States Census Bureau. State Exports from Oregon, 2015-2019. https://www.census.gov/foreign- trade/statistics/state/data/or.html. 81 Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, December 2019. Vol. XXXIX, No. 4, p. 3. https://www.oregon.gov/das/OEA/Documents/forecast1219.pdf. 82 Ibid, p. 14.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 59 early to mid-1990s, Oregon’s net migration was highest, reaching over 60,000 in 1991, with another smaller peak of almost 42,100 in 2006. In 2019, net migration reached just over 47,500 persons. . Increasing ethnic diversity. Oregon’s population has continued to get more ethnically and racially diverse, with the Latino population growing from 8% of the population in 2000 to 12% of the population in 2014–2018. The population of people of color grew from 13% of the population to 15% of the population over the same period. The share of Latino and people of color populations increased in Dallas since 2000 as well. . Forecast of job growth. Total nonfarm employment was forecasted to increase from about 1.94 million in 2019 to just over 2 million in 2023, but the OEA’s June 2020 economic and revenue forecast revises the 2023 employment estimate down to nearly 1.90 million, or by about 7%. Of private industry, the OEA forecasts job losses across the board in 2020 with an expectation of growth in the years following as economic activity and consumer confidence increases.83 . Manufacturing is an important part of Oregon’s economy. The manufacturing sector has long been a crucial component of Oregon’s economy. In the last decade, growth in Oregon’s manufacturing sector has outpaced that of the nation, growing by 23% compared to the nation’s 12%.84 The manufacturing sector also makes up a larger share of Oregon’s economy than it does in the nation with 10.2% of Oregon’s payroll employment in manufacturing compared to 8.5% for the nation in 2018.85 Manufacturing remains an important piece of Oregon’s economy and the sector is evolving. Only a few decades ago, Oregon’s manufacturing economy was Page 80 of 191 predominantly dependent on forestry and wood products. But between 1990 and 2018, annual average employment in wood product manufacturing dropped by 22,600 jobs or 46%.86 Growth in Oregon’s electronic component manufacturing, however, has filled the gap

left by the decline in wood manufacturing. In 2018, there were a total of 37,900 jobs in 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Oregon’s electronic component manufacturing (i.e., manufacturing of computer chips, computers and related equipment, and communications equipment), making it Oregon’s largest manufacturing industry. Employment in this industry is over six times more concentrated in Oregon than it is nationally and is driving much of the growth in Oregon manufacturing.87 Continued growth, spurred by electronic component manufacturing, is expected in the future for Oregon’s manufacturing sector. Although Oregon’s economy is shifting, the state’s roots in forestry and wood product manufacturing remain important, particularly

83 Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2020. Vol. XL, No. 2, p. 32. 84 Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018, qualityinfo.org. 85 Ibid. 86 Ibid. 87 Ibid.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 60 for rural areas. Douglas County, for example, had 8.3% of its total employment and 10.7% of its total payroll in wood product manufacturing in 2018.88 . Advancements in technology and increases in automation of jobs.89 In decades past, automation was focused on manufacturing. In the coming decades, jobs at risk for automation will tend to be those without “computerization bottlenecks” or jobs that do not require social intelligence, perception, creativity, or fine motor skills. Jobs in industries lacking customer service component, such as those in transportation and material moving, are also at greater risk. Most researchers agree that “less-educated workers in low-skill, lower-wage jobs featuring routine tasks are those most likely to be displaced by automation.”90 Oregon’s overall risk of automation is similar to the nation’s, with lower and middle-wage jobs at higher risk. In 2017, 144,200 jobs in Oregon were found to be at risk of automation and 93% of jobs in food preparation and serving were found to be at risk.91 However, automation risk does not imply automation certainty. For example, consumer preferences for personalized and genuine experiences/interactions will likely slow job automation, particularly in the food services and hospitality sectors. In addition, there is a notable difference between task automation and full automation of jobs. One research study speculates that only 5% of jobs are fully automated, and that the “activities most susceptible to automation involve physical activities in highly structured and predictable environments, as well as the collection and processing of data.”92 . Income and wages continue to increase. Despite Oregon’s income and wages falling below the average among states, Oregon wages are at their highest point relative to

other states since the recession in the early 1980s, mainly due to the wage growth over Page 81 of 191 the last two to three years. In 2018, the average annual wage in Oregon was $53,053, and the median household income was $60,212 (compared to national average wages of $57,266 in 2018 and national household income of $60,336).93 Total personal income (all classes of income, minus Social Security contributions, adjusted for inflation) in Oregon 94 is expected to increase by 22%, from $214.3 billion in 2019 to $312.4 billion in 2027. Per 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

88 Ibid. 89 Portland Business Alliance. (2017). Automation and the Future of Work. https://portlandalliance.com/assets/pdfs/2017-VOJ-Automation-summary.pdf 90 Marcus Casey and Sarah Nzau. (2019). Searching for clarity: How much will automation impact the middle class? Brookings. 91 Portland Business Alliance. (2017). Automation and the Future of Work. https://portlandalliance.com/assets/pdfs/2017-VOJ-Automation-summary.pdf 92 McKinsey & Company. (2017). A Future that Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity. 93 Average annual wages are for “total, all industries,” which includes private and public employers. Oregon Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2018. Retrieved from: https://www.qualityinfo.org; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017; Total, U.S. Census American Community Survey 1- Year Estimates, 2017, Table B19013. 94 Office of Economic Analysis. Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2018. Vol. XXXVIII, No. 3, page 39.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 61 capita income is expected to increase by 16% over the same time period, from $50,200 in 2018 to $64,400 in 2027 (in nominal dollars).95 The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to slow, or possibly eliminate, income growth at least through the resulting recession. . Small businesses continue to account for a large share of employment in Oregon. While small firms played a large part in Oregon’s expansion between 2003 and 2007, they also suffered disproportionately in the recession and its aftermath (64% of the net jobs lost between 2008 and 2010 was from small businesses). In 2017 small businesses (those with 100 or fewer employees) accounted for 95% of all businesses and 66% of all private-sector employment in Oregon. Said differently, most businesses in Oregon are small (in fact, 78% of all businesses have fewer than 10 employees), but the largest share of Oregon’s employers work for large businesses (those with more than 100 employees).96 The average annualized payroll per employee for small businesses was $39,099 in 2017, which is considerably less than that for large businesses ($56,466) and the statewide average for all businesses ($49,548).97

Younger workers are important for the continued growth of small businesses across the nation. More than one-third of millennials (those born between 1980 and 1999) are self- employed, with approximately one-half to two-thirds interested in becoming an entrepreneur. According to the Kauffman Indicators of Entrepreneurship, in 2018, about 79% of start-ups nationwide were still active after one year. On average, start-ups nationwide created approximately 5.2 jobs in their first year (when normalized by population).98 It is typically the case that start-ups are important for job creation on a Page 82 of 191 longer-time horizon, well beyond their first year, as “fewer than half of all start-ups in America are still in business after five years.”99 . Entrepreneurship in Oregon. The creation of new businesses is vital to Oregon’s economy as their formations generate new jobs and advance new ideas and innovations

into markets. They also can produce more efficient products and services to better serve 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf local communities. According to the Kauffman Index, Oregon ranked 25th in the country in 2018 for its start-up activity, a measurement comprised of four statistics: rate of new entrepreneurs, opportunity share of new entrepreneurs, start-up density, and start-up early survival rate.100 This ranking is lower than its 2017 rank of 13. Oregon’s rate of new entrepreneurs (the percent of adults that became an entrepreneur in a given

95 Ibid, page 39. 96 U.S Census Bureau, 2017 Statistics of U.S. Businesses, Annual Data, Enterprise Employment Size, U.S and States. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/econ/susb/2017-susb-annual.html. 97 Ibid. 98 Kauffman Foundation. Kauffman Indicators of Entrepreneurship. Indicators: Startup Early Job Creation and Startup Early Survival Rate. Information retrieved on December 19, 2019. https://indicators.kauffman.org/data-table 99 Nish Acharya. “Small Business Are Having A Bigger Impact on Job Creation Than Large Corporations.” Forbes, May 5, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nishacharya/2019/05/05/who-is-creating-jobs-in-america/#5c74c156597d 100 Kauffman Foundation. The Kauffman Index, Oregon. https://indicators.kauffman.org/data-table

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 62 month) was in steady decline post-recession, but since 2013, has gradually recovered until 2018 where it dropped to 0.27. This rate is below 2017’s rate of 0.32% and well below Oregon’s prerecession peak of 0.43% in 2000. Moreover, in 2018, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis reported new business applications in Oregon were increasing. They did, however, simultaneously note start- up businesses were “a smaller share of all firms than in the past.”101 Though this measurement of economic activity does not constitute a full understanding of how well entrepreneurship is performing, it does provide an encouraging signal. Regional and Local Trends

Throughout this section and the report, Dallas is compared to Polk County and the State of Oregon. These comparisons are to provide context for changes in Dallas’s socioeconomic characteristics.

Availability of Labor

The availability of trained workers in Dallas will impact the development of its economy over the planning period. A skilled and educated populace can attract well-paying businesses and employers and spur the benefits that follow from a growing economy. Key trends that will affect the workforce in Dallas over the next 20 years include its growth in its overall population, growth in the senior population, and commuting trends.

Population Change Page 83 of 191

Population growth in Oregon tends to follow economic cycles. Oregon’s population grew from 2.8 million people in 1990 to 4.2 million people in 2019, an increase of almost 1,400,000 people or 1.4% each year. In the most recent decade (i.e., 2010 to 2019), the state’s average annual growth rate fell slightly from 1.4% to 1.1%. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

Between 1990 and 2019, Dallas’s population increased by 6,838 residents at an average annual rate of 1.9%, exceeding both Polk County and Oregon’s growth rates during the same time period (1.8% and 1.4%, respectively).

Exhibit 21. Population Growth, Dallas, Polk County, and Oregon, 1990–2019 Change, 1990 - 2019 Geography 1990 2000 2010 2019 Number Percent AAGR Dallas 9, 422 12,459 14,583 16,260 6,838 73% 1.9% Polk County 49,541 62,380 75,403 82,940 33,399 67% 1.8% Oregon 2,842,321 3,421,399 3,831,074 4,236,400 1,394,079 49% 1.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Portland State University Population Estimates, 2019.

101 Lehner, Josh. (August 2018). “Start-Ups, R&D, and Productivity.” Salem, OR: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. Retrieved from: https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/08/27/start-ups-rd-and-productivity/.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 63 Age Distribution

By 2060, the population of people 65 years and older in the United States is projected to nearly double from 52 million in 2018 to 95 million.102 The economic effects of this demographic change include a slowing of the growth of the labor force, the need for workers to replace retirees, the aging of the workforce for seniors that continue working after age 65, an increase in the demand for health-care services, and an increase in the percent of the federal budget dedicated to Social Security and Medicare.103

Exhibit 22 through Exhibit 25 show the following trends:

. Dallas’s population is aging quicker than the populations in Polk County and the state overall, per their respective median ages. During the 2014–2018 period, 27% of Dallas residents were 60 years and older (Exhibit 24). This, coupled with the increase in median age between 2000 and 2014–2018, suggests that Dallas is attracting people in their later adult lives. . Polk County’s population is expected to continue aging, with people 60 years and older increasing slightly from 23% of the population in 2017 to 24% in 2035. This is consistent with statewide trends. Polk County may continue to attract those in their late adult years (i.e., 70 years and older) over the planning period. While the share of retirees in these respective areas may increase over the next 20 years, the share of youth (i.e., under 20 years old) or people in their early adult lives (i.e., 20 to 39 years old) is likely to decrease. As the working population continues to exit the labor force later in life, those

approaching retirement provide a valuable source of skilled labor and experience to Page 84 of 191 younger generations entering the workforce. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

102 Mather, M., Scommegna, P., & Kilduff, L. (2019). Fact Sheet: Aging in the United States. https://www.prb.org/aging-unitedstates-fact-sheet/ 103 The Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, 2017, The 2017 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, July 13, 2017. The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018 to 2028, April 2018.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 64 Dallas’s median age Exhibit 22. Median Age, Dallas, Polk County, and Oregon, 2000 to has increased by about 2014–2018 5.7 years since 2000, a Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Table P013; American Community Survey 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B01002. change much larger than Polk County’s 2000 36.3 36.5 36.3 change of 0.6 years and Dallas Polk County Oregon Oregon’s change of 2.9 42.0 37.1 39.2 years. 2014-18 Dallas Polk County Oregon

This increase suggests Dallas is attracting more workers in their later adult lives.

Over 2000 to 2014– Exhibit 23. Dallas Population Change by Age Group, 2000 to 2014– 2018, Dallas’s largest 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Summary File; American Community Survey 2014–2018 5- population increases Year Estimates, Table B01001. were for those aged 45– 4,000 64 and 65 years and 3,775 3,799

older. 3,500 3,385 3,229 This is consistent with 3,000 statewide trends. 2,542 2,590

n 2,500

i 2,182 Page 85 of 191 t 2,080

u 2,000 p 1,740

P 1,500 1,026 986 1,000 930

500 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

0 Under 5 5 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 + 2000 2014-2018

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 65 During the 2014–2018 Exhibit 24. Population Distribution by Age, Dallas, Polk County, and period, 27% of Dallas Oregon, 2014–2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table residents were over 60 B01001. years of age. 27% 60 Years 24% and Over The proportion of Dallas’s 24% older residents was higher than that of both the state 25% and Polk County. 40 to 59 23% 25%

Conversely, the proportion of 26% Dallas residents 39 years of 20 to 39 26% age and younger was lower 27% relative to Polk County and 22% Oregon. Under 20 27% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of Population Dallas Polk County Oregon

By 2035, Polk County will Exhibit 25. Population Growth by Age Group, have a larger share of Polk County, 2017–2035 Source: Portland State University, College of Urban & Public Affairs: Population Research Center, Page 86 of 191 residents 40 years and Population Forecast, 2017. older than it does today. 23% 60+ The share of residents 60 24% years and older will account 24% for 24% of Polk County’s 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 40 to 59 population, compared to 25% 23% in 2017. Similarly, the share of residents between 25% 20 to 39 the ages of 40 and 59 will 24% increase from 24% to 25%. 2017 27% Under 20 26% 2035

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percentage of Population

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 66 Race and Ethnicity

Dallas, like Oregon overall, is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. Both the Hispanic and Latino and people of color populations increased in Dallas between 2000 and 2014–2018. The Hispanic and Latino population increased from 4% to 6%, while the population of people of color increased from 7% to 8%. Similar to the city, Polk County’s population of people of color increased slightly from 11% to 12%, and the Hispanic and Latino population grew from 9% to 14% during the same time period. Dallas is slightly more ethnically diverse than the state, so providing culturally specific services to Spanish-speaking community members can help improve their participation in the workforce and economy.

The population of people of color is defined as the share of the population that identifies as another race other than “white alone” according to Census definitions. The small population in Dallas results in small sample sizes, and thus the margin of error is considerable for the estimate of these populations.

Exhibit 26 and Exhibit 27 show the change in the share of Hispanic and Latino and people of color populations in Dallas, compared to Polk County and Oregon, between 2000 and 2014– 2018. The groups with the largest share of the population of people of color in 2014–2018 include those that identify as “some other race alone” or two or more races, each representing 3% Dallas’s total population.104 Page 87 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

104 “Some other race alone” also includes individuals who identify as American Indian or Alaska Native or Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 67 Dallas’s Hispanic/Latino Exhibit 26. Hispanic or Latino Population as a Percentage of the Total population increased Population, Dallas, Polk County, and Oregon, 2000, 2014–2018 between 2000 and Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, Table P008; 2014–2018 American Community Survey, 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B03002. 2014–2018 from 4% to 6%. 16%

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Polk County. e

i 10%

a 9%

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s i 6% 6%

H 4% 4%

0% Dallas Polk County Oregon

2000 2014-2018

Page 88 of 191 The population of people Exhibit 27. Population of People of Color as a Percentage of the Total of color in Dallas Population, Dallas, Polk County, and Oregon, 2000, 2014–2018 increased between 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census Table P007; 2014–2018 American Community Survey, 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B02001. and 2014–2018. 18% 16% Dallas and Polk County are 16% 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

n 14% 13% less racially diverse than the e

c r 12%

state. In 2014–2018, the P 12%

, 11%

share of people of color in o

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N During this same time 2% period, the groups with the 0% largest share of the Dallas Polk County Oregon population of people of color 2000 2014-2018

were “some other race alone” and two or more races, each representing 3% of Dallas’s residents.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 68 Income

Income and wages affect business decisions for locating in a city. Areas with higher wages may be less attractive for industries that rely on low-wage workers. Dallas’s median household income ($56,169) was below the county median ($58,344). In 2018, average wages at private businesses in Dallas ($36,962) were also below the county average ($37,902).

Between 2000 and 2018, Polk County’s average wages increased as did average wages across the state and the nation. When adjusted for inflation, average annual wages grew by 7% in Polk County and 11% in both Oregon and across the nation.

From 2000 to 2018, Exhibit 28. Average Annual Wage, Covered Employment, Polk County, average annual wages Oregon, and the U.S., 2000 to 2018, Inflation-Adjusted 2018 Dollars rose in Polk County, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; State of Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW). Oregon, and the nation. 2018 In 2018, average annual Polk County wages were $37,902 in 2000 Polk County, $53,053 in Oregon, and $57,266 across the nation. Oregon

U.S. Page 89 of 191

$0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 $75,000 Average Annual Pay (2018 Dollars) 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

Over the 2014–2018 Exhibit 29. Median Household Income (MHI),105 2014–2018 period, the median Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B19013. household income in Dallas was 4% below $56,169 $58,344 $59,393 Polk County’s median Dallas Polk County Oregon household income and

6% below Oregon’s.

105 The Census calculated household income based on the income of all individuals 15 years old and over in the household, whether they are related or not.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 69 Dallas’s median family Exhibit 30. Median Family Income,106 2014–2018 income during the Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012–2016 5-Year Estimates, Table B19113. 2014–2018 period, similar to median $66,734 $72,243 $72,823 household income, Dallas Polk County Oregon was below the median

family income of both Polk County and Oregon by 8% and 9%, respectively.

During the 2014–2018 Exhibit 31. Household Income by Income Group, Dallas, Polk period, 38% of Dallas County, and Oregon, 2014–2018, Inflation-Adjusted 2018 Dollars Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table households earned less B19001. than $40,000 annually, compared to 34% of Polk County and Oregon $100K and Above households. $60K to $100K Over the same period, 16% of Dallas households $40 to $60K earned between $40,000 Dallas and $59,999, a proportion $20K to $40K smaller than both Polk Polk County County residents (17%) and Less than $20K residents statewide (17%). Oregon Page 90 of 191

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percentage of Households

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

106 The Census calculated family income based on the income of the head of household, as identified in the response to the Census forms, and income of all individuals 15 years old and over in the household who are related to the head of household by birth, marriage, or adoption.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 70 Educational Attainment

The availability of trained, educated workers affects the quality of labor in a community. Educational attainment is an important labor force factor because firms need to be able to find educated workers.

A larger share of Dallas Exhibit 32. Educational Attainment for the Population 25 Years residents have some and Over, Dallas, Polk County, and Oregon, 2014–2018 college education or an Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B15003. associate degree than 50% Polk County and the state. Conversely, the

proportion of Dallas n 40% 39% 38%

c 36%

residents who have a e 34%

P 34%

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30%

professional degree falls e

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Polk County. a l 20%

10%

0% High School Diploma or Some College or Bachelor's, Graduate, or Less Associate's Degree Professional degree Page 91 of 191 Dallas Polk County Oregon

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 71 Labor Force Participation and Unemployment

The current labor force participation rate is an important consideration in the availability of labor. The labor force in any market consists of the adult population (16 and over) who are working or actively seeking work. The labor force includes both the employed and unemployed. Children, retirees, students, and people who are not actively seeking work are not considered part of the labor force. According to the 2014–2018 American Community Survey, Polk County had 38,902 people in its labor force during that period and Dallas had 7,455 people in its labor force.

In 2019, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis reported that 64% of job vacancies were difficult to fill. The most common reason for difficulty in filling jobs included a lack of applications (29% of employers’ difficulties), unfavorable working conditions (23%), a lack of qualified candidates (16%), a lack of soft skills (8%), a lack of work experience (7%), and low wages (7%).107 These statistics indicate a mismatch between the types of jobs that employers are demanding and the skills that potential employees can provide.

Dallas has a lower labor Exhibit 33. Labor Force Participation Rate, Dallas, Polk County, and force participation rate Oregon, 2014–2018 relative to both Polk Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2012–2016 5-Year Estimates, Table B23001. County and Oregon. 80%

70%

r 60%

e Page 92 of 191

r 50%

b 40%

t 30% 60% 62%

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i t 20% 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

P 10%

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107 Oregon’s Current Workforce Gaps: Hiring Challenges for Unfilled Job Vacancies, May 2019. Employer-Provided Reasons for Difficulty Filling Vacancies in Oregon, 2018. p. 20. https://www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/13336/Oregon%27s+Current+Workforce+Gaps.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 72 The unemployment Exhibit 34. Unemployment Rate, Polk County, Oregon, and the U.S., rates in Dallas, Polk 2000–July 2020 County, Oregon, and the Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Labor Force Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted. nation have declined 16 since the Great Recession. However, 14 following the pandemic, 12

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Page 93 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 73 Commuting Patterns

Commuting plays an important role in Dallas’s economy because employers in the area are able to access workers from cities across Polk County and Willamette Valley region.

Exhibit 36 shows that 24% of people who live in Dallas commute to Salem while 17% remain in Dallas and 6% commute to Portland. The remaining workers commute from other cities located across the region.

Dallas is part of an Exhibit 35. Commuting Flows, Dallas, 2017 interconnected regional Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map. economy.

Fewer people both live and work in Dallas than commute into or out of the city for work. This is similar to the commuting patterns of Polk County workers, in that most Dallas residents commute outside of the county for work. Page 94 of 191

About 28% of all Exhibit 36. Places Where Dallas Workers Lived,108 2017 people who work in Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.

Dallas also live in 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Dallas. 28% 13% 5% 3% Dallas Salem Monmouth Independence

About 17% of Exhibit 37. Places Where Dallas Residents Were Employed,109 residents who live in 2017 Dallas also work in Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census On the Map.

Dallas. 17% 24% 6% 3% Dallas Salem Portland Corvallis 24% of Dallas residents commute to Salem for work.

108 In 2017, 4,295 people worked at businesses in Dallas, with 28% (1,207) of workers both living and working in Dallas. 109 In 2017, 6,977 residents in Dallas worked, with 17% of Dallas residents (1,207) both living and working in Dallas.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 74 During the 2014–2018 period, about 35% of Dallas residents had a commute of less than 15 minutes, compared to 30% of Polk County’s residents and 31% of Oregon residents.

The majority of Dallas Exhibit 38. Commute Time by Place of Residence, Dallas, Polk County, residents (65%) have a and Oregon, 2014–2018 commute time over 15 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2014–2018 5-Year Estimates, Table B08303. minutes. This is 8% consistent with Polk 60 or more 7% County, where 70% of 6%

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Dallas Polk County Oregon

Page 95 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 75 Tourism in Willamette Valley and Polk County

Longwoods International provides regional statistics on travel. The following information is from Longwoods International’s 2017 Regional Visitor Report for the Willamette Valley region, which is comprised of Benton, Clackamas (South), Lane (East), Linn, Marion, and Polk Counties.110 Broadly, travelers to the Willamette Valley accounted for:111

. 5.5 million overnight trips in 2017, or 16% of all Oregon overnight travel that year. . The primary market areas for travelers over 2016 and 2017 were Oregon, Washington, and California: 48% of Willamette Valley visitors came from Oregon, 19% came from California, and 14% came from Washington. . About 75% of visitors stayed 2 or fewer nights over 2016 and 2017 in the Willamette Valley, 20% stayed 3–6 nights, and 5% stayed 7 or more nights. The average nights spent in the Willamette Valley region was 2.3. . The average per-person expenditures on overnight trips in 2017 ranged from $13 on transportation at destination to $41 per night on lodging. . About 75% of visits to the Willamette Valley region over 2016 and 2017 were via personally owned automobiles, 18% were by rental car, and 13% were via an online taxi service (e.g., Lyft or Uber). . Over 2016 and 2017, visitors tended to be middle-aged adults, with the average age being about 48.7. The majority of overnight visitors were 65 and older (23%), followed by those between the ages of 55 and 64 (19%) and individuals between the ages of 35 Page 96 of 191 and 44 (19%). About 56% of visitors graduated college or completed a postgraduate education. Additionally, 44% of visitor earned less than $50,000 in household income, 37% earned between $50,000 and $99,999, and 19% earned more than $100,000. The average household income for the Willamette Valley region visitors was about $64,560.

Polk County’s direct Exhibit 39. Direct Travel Spending ($ millions), 2000 and 2018 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf travel spending Source: Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts, 1991–2018, and Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts, 1992–2018. increased 69% from 2000 to 2018. $1,019.9 $104.7 2000 Willamette Valley Polk County The Willamette Valley Region region’s direct travel $1,984.4 $177.2 spending increased by 2018 Willamette Valley Polk County 49% over the same Region period.

110 Travel Oregon. “Oregon 2017 Regional Visitor Report Willamette Valley Region,” Longwoods International, October 2018. Retrieved from: https://industry.traveloregon.com/resources/research/willamette-valley-oregon- overnight-travel-study-2017-longwoods-international/. 111 Longwoods International issues caution in interpreting these tourism estimates in Central Oregon, as the sample size for this region is low.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 76 Polk County’s largest Exhibit 40. Largest Visitor Spending Categories ($ millions), Polk visitor spending for County, 2019 purchased Source: Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts.

commodities is arts, $95.8 $38.4 $14.0 entertainment, and Arts, Food Service Food Stores recreation. Entertainment, and Recreation

Polk County’s largest Exhibit 41. Largest Industry Employment Generated by Travel employment Spending (thousands), Polk County, 2019 generated by travel Source: Dean Runyan Associates, Oregon Travel Impacts.

spending is in the 1.2 jobs 1.1 jobs 0.1 jobs accommodations and Accommodations Arts, Entertainment, Retail food services industry. & Food Services and Recreation

The number of overnight visitors to Polk County has increased from 1,101,000 in 2016 to 1,168,000 in 2018, an increase of 63,000 overnight stays (or 6%).

. Page 97 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 77 Appendix B. Buildable Lands Inventory

This appendix presents methods and definitions used to develop the commercial and industrial buildable lands inventory for the Dallas UGB. The results (shown in Chapter 4) are based on analyses of City of Dallas, Polk County, and State of Oregon GIS data by ECONorthwest and reviewed by City staff. The remainder of this appendix summarizes key findings of the buildable lands inventory. Methods and Definitions

The BLI for Dallas includes all land that allows commercial and industrial uses within the UGB. From a practical perspective, land was included in the BLI if it met all of the following criteria: 1) it is inside the Dallas UGB, 2) it is inside a tax lot (as defined by Polk County), and 3) if its current zoning/comprehensive plan designation allows employment uses. Note that tax lots do not generally include road or railroad rights-of-way or water. The inventory then builds from the tax lot–level database to estimate buildable land by plan designation. Page 98 of 191 Inventory Steps

The steps in the BLI are:

1. Generate UGB “land base” 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 2. Classify lands by buildable area status 3. Identify constraints 4. Verify inventory results 5. Tabulate and map results Step 1: Generate UGB “Land Base”

The commercial and industrial inventory used all of the tax lots in the Dallas UGB with the appropriate comprehensive plan designations: central business district, commercial, and industrial. Additionally, we included the following zones in the Master Plan Nodal Overlays (Barberry, La Creole, and Wyatt Nodes): commercial neighborhood, commercial general, and mixed use. Exhibit 44 shows a map of the specific designations that were used in the BLI.

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 78 Step 2: Classify Lands

In this step, ECONorthwest classified each tax lot with an employment plan designation (based on definition above) into one of five mutually exclusive categories based on buildable area status:

. Developed land . Vacant land . Partially vacant land . Unbuildable land . Public or exempt land . Potentially redevelopable land ECONorthwest identified buildable land and classified buildable area status using a rule-based methodology. The rules are described below in Exhibit 42.

Exhibit 42. Rules for Buildable Area Status Classification Buildable Definition Statutory Authority Area Status

Vacant Land A tax lot: OAR 660-009-005(14)

(a) Equal to or larger than one-half acre not currently containing permanent buildings or improvements; or Page 99 of 191 (b) Equal to or larger than five acres where less than one-half acre is occupied by permanent buildings or improvements.

For the purpose of criteria (a) above, lands with improvement values of $0 are considered vacant.

Partially Vacant Partially vacant tax lots are those between one and five acres No statutory definition 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Land occupied by a use that could still be further developed based on the zoning. This determination was based on a visual assessment and City staff verification.

Undevelopable Vacant tax lots less than 3,000 square feet in size are No statutory definition Land considered undevelopable.

Public or Exempt Lands in public or semipublic ownership are considered No statutory definition Land unavailable for commercial or industrial development. This includes lands in Federal, State, County, or City ownership as well as lands owned by churches and other semipublic organizations. Public lands will be identified using the Polk County Assessment property tax exemption codes.

Developed Land OAR 660-009-005(1) defines developed land as “Non-vacant OAR 660-009-005(1) land that is likely to be redeveloped during the planning period.”

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 79 Lands not classified as vacant, partially vacant, undevelopable, or public or exempt are considered developed.

Potentially The EOA identified one site with existing development that is OAR 660-009-005(1) Redevelopable likely to be redeveloped over the 20-year planning period, the former Mill Site. There are special considerations for future development constraints, discussed in the EOA.

Step 3: Identify Constraints

As shown in Exhibit 43, the BLI included development constraints consistent with guidance in OAR 660-009-0005(2).

Exhibit 43. Constraints to Be Included in BLI Constraint Statutory Authority Threshold

Goal 5 Natural Resource Constraints

Regulated Wetlands OAR 660-009-0005(2) Within National Wetlands Inventory

Natural Hazard Constraints

Riparian Corridors OAR 660-009-0005(2) Within riparian corridors

Floodplain and Floodway OAR 660-009-0005(2) Within FEMA-defined floodplain

Steep Slopes OAR 660-009-0005(2) Slopes greater than 15% Page 100 of 191 These areas were evaluated as prohibitive constraints (unbuildable). All constraints were merged into a single constraint file, which was then used to identify the area of each tax lot that is constrained. These areas were deducted from lands that are identified as vacant or partially vacant.

Step 4: Verify Inventory Results 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest used a multistep verification process. The first verification step involved a “visual assessment” of land classifications using GIS and recent aerial photos. The visual assessment involves reviewing classifications overlaid on recent aerial photographs to verify uses on the ground. ECONorthwest reviewed all tax lots included in the inventory using the visual assessment methodology. The second round of verification involved City staff verifying the visual assessment output. ECONorthwest amended the BLI based on City staff review and a discussion of staff’s comments. The final verification is reviewed by stakeholders, most especially by members of the Technical Advisory Committee.

Step 5: Tabulate and Map Results

The results of the commercial BLI are presented in tabular and map format in the remainder of this appendix. This includes a zoning/comprehensive plan map, the land base by classification,

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 80 vacant and partially vacant lands by plan designation, and vacant and partially vacant lands by plan designation with constraints showing. Page 101 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 81 Exhibit 44. Comprehensive Plan Designations and Zones Included in the Commercial and Industrial BLI, Dallas UGB, 2020

Dallas Buildable Lands Inventory Commercial and Industrial Comprehensive Plan Designations

Boundaries Employment BLI Land Base UGB Comprehensive Plan Designations

City Limits Central Business District Commercial Mixed Use Nodes Industrial Barberry Node LaCreole Node Master Plan Nodal Overlay Zones Wyatt Node Commercial Neighborhood Commercial General Mixed Use

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ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 82 Exhibit 45. Employment Land Development Constraints by Constraint Type, Dallas UGB, 2020

Dallas Buildable Lands Inventory Commercial and Industrial Constraints

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ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 83 Exhibit 46. Buildable Employment Land by Plan Designation with Development Constraints, Dallas UGB, 2020 Page 104 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 84 Appendix C. Results of the Virtual Open House

Note to reviewers: This will be included in a later version of the document. Page 105 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

ECONorthwest Draft – Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis 85 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 106 of 191 Chapter 2 Vol. 1 – A Sustainable Dallas Economy DRAFT- V. 4 – subject to public hearing / notice posting

1 Proposed new text (draft) shown in italics, bold and highlighted in yellow.

2 Text to be removed shown struck-through, highlighted in blue.

3 Changes to this draft version (No. 4) incorporate comments / changes received from work sessions conducted with the Dallas 4 EOA Technical Advisory Committee, Dallas Planning Commission and Dallas City Council.

5 Volume 1 of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan

6 ******

7 Chapter 2: A Prosperous and Sustainable Dallas Economy

8 9 Economic Goals 10 11 The City's overall economic goal is to continue as a sustainable community prosper and sustain 12 economic vitality in order to enhance the quality of life for all Dallas citizens residents. This 13 goal is best achieved by increasing economic opportunities without threatening environmental 14 quality or eroding the region's natural resource base. 15 16 A. Maintain the existing and encourage the future development of a sound economic base in 17 Dallas by providing for adequate and diversified industries, retail and wholesale 18 establishments and service related industries. Page 107 of 191 19 20 B. Encourage new commercial and industrial development that to assure the prosperity 21 serves the needs of the Dallas community and is designed to while minimizeing negative 22 impacts on Dallas residential neighborhoods, consistent with the policies of the Dallas

23 Comprehensive Plan. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 24 25 C. Maintain, strengthen and promote the Central Business District as the dominant 26 pedestrian-oriented commercial and cultural center of the community. 27 28 D. Encourage a broad variety of commercial activities in the Dallas area in convenient and 29 desirable locations to serve the public and the needs of businesses. 30 31 E. Provide for small-scale, neighborhood commercial centers that complement the Central 32 Business District and which minimize routine travel from home to shopping. 33 34 F. Plan for a 20-year supply of suitable commercial and industrial land on sites with a 35 variety of physical characteristics (e.g., site sizes, locations, visibility, access and other 36 attributes). 37

Chapter 2 Vol. 1 – A Sustainable Dallas Economy DRAFT- V. 4 – subject to public hearing / notice posting

1 G. Provide adequate infrastructure in an efficient, timely, orderly and cost-effective 2 manner to support business and employment growth. 3 4 Economic Policies

5 2.1 Industrial Development Policies 6 1. Encourage the future development of industrial facilities sites, primarily ones the type 7 that would provide the best potential for employment growth and have a limited are able 8 to effectively mitigate negative environmental effect impacts upon the community and 9 which do not place excessive unreasonable demands on the City's infrastructure. 10 11 2. Require all existing and future industries to locate within the City Limits and to conform 12 to existing federal and state environmental laws. Encourage and promote annexation of 13 Industrial planned land that is outside city limits, within the Urban Growth Boundary. 14 15 3. Encourage the diversification of industries in Dallas to reduce the chance of economic 16 depression because of an economic slump in one industry.. 17 18 4. Encourage the development of an industrial or business park within the Dallas City 19 Limits. 20 21 3. 5. Provide for a choice among suitable industrial and business park sites. Provide for an 22 adequate supply of industrial land to accommodate the types and amount of economic 23 development and industrial growth anticipated in the future, as described in the city’s

24 most recent Economic Opportunities Analysis. The supply of industrial land should Page 108 of 191 25 provide a range of site sizes and locations to accommodate the market needs of a variety 26 of industrial employment uses. 27 28 6. Encourage the development of agriculture-related industries. 29 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

30 4. Provide for an adequate short-term supply of suitable industrial land to respond to 31 economic development opportunities as they arise. “Short-term supply” means suitable 32 land that is ready for construction usually within one year of an application for a 33 building permit or request for service extension. “

34 5. Monitor and replenish the total and short-term supply of industrial land on a regular, 35 periodic basis.

37 2.2 Manpower Workforce Development Policies 38 1. Support workforce development for Provide citizens residents within the City of Dallas 39 with adequate employment opportunities, training programs by expanding employment

Chapter 2 Vol. 1 – A Sustainable Dallas Economy DRAFT- V. 4 – subject to public hearing / notice posting

1 opportunities, and needed supportive services to enhance their employability. by 2 collaborating with educational organizations, regional partners and businesses. 3 4 2. Encourage the use of appropriate Federal, and State and Regional manpower 5 employment programs that incentivize the creation, growth and retention of jobs in 6 Dallas. Furthermore, ensure these programs are made available to governmental units 7 and private businesses, and community non-profits. to provide more jobs in the Dallas 8 area. 9 10 3. Encourage the creation of job opportunities for residents in the Dallas area within new 11 and present businesses and industries. 12 13 4. Encourage skill training and upgrading opportunities and programs for the residents of 14 Dallas. 15 16 5. Encourage the use of available manpower planning moneys to analyze the labor force and 17 determine industries and businesses which would be able to provide employment for 18 residents of the Dallas area. 19 20 6. Encourage the use of supportive services to enhance the employability of target group 21 individuals. 22

23 2.3 Industrial Land Use Policies

24 Policies in this section shall be evaluated in response to Quasi-Judicial Comprehensive Plan Page 109 of 191 25 and Zoning Map Amendment proposals that involve a change to or from Industrial. 26 27 1. Preserve prime industrial sites and reserve suitable land to provide a choice among sites 28 for new industrial development prior to actual demand. Prime industrial sites include 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 29 site characteristics that are difficult or impossible to replicate in the Dallas Urban 30 Growth Boundary. These characteristics may also include: 1) sites / properties larger 31 than 10 acres, 2) sites with direct access to a highway or major arterial road, 3) sites 32 with existing investments in infrastructure needed by industrial uses, and 4) sites / 33 properties surrounded by properties that are planned Industrial. 34 35 2. Support the Ash Creek Water Control District in order to maximize use of the Ash Creek 36 Industrial area. 37 38 39 3. Encourage the use of the industrial park concept by requiring master planning rather than 40 piecemeal development of industrial sites and areas. 41 42

Chapter 2 Vol. 1 – A Sustainable Dallas Economy DRAFT- V. 4 – subject to public hearing / notice posting

1 2 3 2. 4.Where appropriately buffered, designate multi-family residential land near industrial 4 sites to minimize travel distance from employment centers to housing. Land planned or 5 zoned for Industrial [shall / may] be located along existing or planned streets identified 6 as Arterial or Collector according to the Dallas Transportation Systems Plan. 7 8 5. Encourage the continued growth of the service-related industries. 9

10 2.4 Commercial Land Use Policies specific to the Central Business District 11 1. Encourage regional offices of the state and federal governments to locate in the City of 12 Dallas and if possible, the Central Business District. 13 14 2. Recognize Maintain, strengthen and promote the Central Business District (CBD) as the 15 principal pedestrian-oriented commercial and cultural center of the community. 16 17 3. Encourage the location of pedestrian-oriented commercial businesses in the Central 18 Business District to bring people into downtown and create a vibrant downtown 19 environment. 20 21 4. Encourage the location of community-oriented uses in the Central Business District, 22 such as the public library, senior centers or civic centers. 23

24 3. Encourage the development of adequate off-street parking facilities in the Central Page 110 of 191 25 Business District. 26 27 4. Encourage the development of improved access to the Central Business District and the 28 establishment of a convenient route for those not destined for the CBD, as shown on the

29 Comprehensive Plan Map # 1. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 30 31 5. Encourage upper-level residential redevelopment and conversions in the Central 32 Business District through financial assistance programs, such as use of Urban 33 Renewal District loans and grants.

34 2.5 Other Commercial Zones Policies, other than applied to the Central Business District 35 1. Encourage Enable medically-health-care related offices and service facilities to locate 36 in the vicinity of the community hospital in addition to other areas of the community. 37 38 2. Encourage the "cluster" development of commercial activities on sites large enough to 39 provide adequate street access, off-street parking and landscaping. 40 41 3. Discourage "strip" commercial development along arterial streets, by concentrating 42 commercial uses in the CBD and in defined neighborhood commercial "nodes."

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1 2 2. Encourage development of well-planned, pedestrian-oriented commercial areas. 3 4 3. Encourage annexation of Commercial planned land that is outside city limits, within 5 the Urban Growth Boundary. 6 7 4. Provide for an adequate supply of commercial land to accommodate the types and 8 amount of economic development and commercial growth anticipated in the future, as 9 described in the city’s most recent Economic Opportunities Analysis. The supply of 10 commercial land should provide a range of site sizes and locations to accommodate the 11 market needs of a variety of commercial employment uses. 12 13 5. Provide for an adequate short-term supply of suitable commercial land to respond to 14 economic development opportunities as they arise. “Short-term supply” means suitable 15 land that is ready for construction usually within one year of an application for a 16 building permit or request for service extension. 17 18 6. Monitor and replenish the total and short-term supply of commercial land on a 19 regular, periodic basis. 20

21 2.6 Commercial Land Use Policies Page 111 of 191 22 Policies in this section shall apply to Quasi-Judicial Plan and Zoning Map Amendment 23 proposals that involve a change to or from Commercial. 24 25 1. Existing properties planned commercial, including properties in Master Plan Nodal

26 Areas, [shall / should] remain commercial unless the deficiency of commercial-zoned 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 27 acreage identified in the Economic Opportunities Analysis of 2020 has been resolved. 28 29 2. Areas planned commercial, inclusive of Master Plan Nodal Areas, [shall / should] be 30 located along streets classified as Arterial or Collector (existing or future) according to 31 the Dallas Transportation Systems Plan. 32 33 ______

34 2.67 Mixed Use Nodes Policies 35 1. LaCreole Mixed Use Node: Concentrate general commercial uses that are automobile 36 oriented and that require large areas for development to locate in the north Dallas 37 commercial area (LaCreole Drive north of E Ellendale Avenue). 38 39 a. To implement this policy the city, working with affected property owners, shall 40 create Capital Improvement and Local Improvement District programs to fund 5

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1 extension of sanitary sewer and water service necessary to develop a master- 2 planned General Commercial in that portion of the node of approximately 30 3 buildable acres, as well as supporting multi-family and open space uses. 4 5 b. In addition to meeting setback, buffering and lot coverage standards of the 6 underlying commercial zoning district, the master plan shall reserve at least 5% of 7 the General Commercial area for use as central, open, publicly-accessible plazas. 8 9 2. Barberry & Wyatt Mixed Use Nodes: Two master-planned Neighborhood Commercial 10 nodes are shown on the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Map to accommodate long-term 11 commercial needs and to minimize the distance Dallas citizens must travel for routine 12 shopping needs. 13 14 a. Barberry Mixed Use Node: Approximately 15 acres of Neighborhood 15 Commercial land south of E Ellendale Avenue, between Fir Villa and Hawthorne 16 Avenue. 17 18 b. Wyatt Mixed Use Node: Approximately 5 acres of Neighborhood Commercial 19 land north of the intersection of W Ellendale Avenue and Wyatt Avenue. 20 21 c. Each of these commercial nodes must be preceded and supported by substantial 22 multi-family development and open space, and must be provided with adequate 23 public facilities, as required by Policy 3.2. 24

25 d. In addition to meeting setback, buffering and lot coverage standards of the Page 112 of 191 26 underlying neighborhood commercial zoning district, the master plan shall reserve 27 at least 10% of the Neighborhood Commercial area for use as a central, open, 28 publicly-accessible plaza. 29 30 3. Master-planned commercial developments shall only be approved following a thorough 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 31 analysis of traffic and public facilities impacts. Transportation and public facilities 32 improvements required as a result of this analysis shall be paid for by the commercial 33 developer. 34 35 4. Zone changes from Low Density Residential to Commercial are limited to the three 36 identified commercial areas. Parcel-by-parcel commercial zone changes are not permitted 37 in the absence of a master development plan, showing the relationships among 38 neighboring land uses and transportation systems. 39 ______40

41 2.8 Economic Development and Target Industries Policies 42 43 These policies are intended to support retention of existing businesses and attract new 44 businesses, including the target industries identified in Economic Opportunities Analysis. 6

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1 Also, these policies are intended to support established and emerging industries that show the 2 best potential for future job growth, higher wages and the ability to bring new investments to 3 the Dallas community. 4 5 1. Support retention and expansion of existing businesses, growth and creation of 6 entrepreneurial business, and attraction of new businesses through planning to 7 increase economic resiliency and mitigating long-run economic risk.

8 2. Encourage the diversification of industries that provide employment in Dallas to be 9 resilient in times of economic recession and depression.

10 3. Coordinate economic development efforts with cities in the region and local and 11 regional economic development organizations.

12 4. Retain and encourage growth of existing businesses in Dallas, particularly small 13 businesses and entrepreneurs.

14 5. Encourage the recruitment of new and expansion of existing manufacturing 15 businesses, especially those with facilities that invest in capital for new manufacturing 16 activities.

17 6. Promote the expansion of services for residents of Dallas and visitors to Dallas, 18 including services for tourism, agri-tourism, outdoor recreation, and supporting

19 services that provide food, beverage and hospitality. Page 113 of 191

20 7. Promote development of commercial services, such as banking and financial services, 21 software development and other professional commercial services that may locate in 22 Dallas. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 23 8. Promote the development of expanded opportunities in the health and wellness 24 sectors, including health care assistance.

25 9. Continue to support the growth and needs of agriculture production in the region. 26 27

2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 114 of 191 Chapter 2 Vol. 2 – A Prosperous and Sustainable Dallas Economy DRAFT of December 2020 EXHIBIT B

1 Proposed new text is shown in italics, bold and highlighted in yellow.

2 Proposed text to be removed is shown struck-through, highlighted in blue.

3 Text shown <> explains the intended change.

5 Volume 2 of Dallas Comprehensive Plan

6 ******

7 Chapter 2: A Prosperous and Sustainable Dallas 8 Economicy Growth

9 10 2.1 Introduction & Organization 11

12 This chapter provides the factual basis and analysis to support the economic and commercial / 13 industrial land use polices and map designations found in Volume I of the 1997 Dallas 14 Comprehensive Plan.

15 On , 2021, the Dallas City Council adopted Ordinance No. , Page 115 of 191 16 amending the City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan in recognition of the 2020 Economic 17 Opportunities Analysis (EOA) as prepared by ECONorthwest, referred to herein as the EOA 18 of 2020. The EOA of 2020 reflects the culmination of input received from the Dallas EOA

19 Technical Advisory Committee, the Dallas Planning Commission and the Dallas City Council. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

20 Upon receiving post-acknowledgment plan amendment approval from the Department of Land 21 Conservation and Development (DLCD), the document titled Final Economic Opportunities 22 Analysis for the City of Dallas, dated , 2021, is incorporated as an appendix 23 to this chapter.

24 The EOA of 2020 is comprised of five chapters as described below: 25 26 1. Introduction; 27 2. Factors Affecting Future Economic Growth; 28 3. Employment Growth and Site Needs; 29 4. Buildable Lands Inventory; and 30 5. Land Sufficiency and Conclusions 31

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1 2 The EOA of 2020 also includes three appendices: 3 4  Appendix A. National, State, and Regional and Local Trends; and 5  Appendix B. Buildable Lands Inventory Methodology 6  Appendix C. Virtual Open House / Survey - Summary

7 8 2.2 Statutory Provisions Related to Employment Needs and Supply 9

10 The EOA of 2020 complies with requirements of Statewide Planning Goal 9, and related 11 Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR), 660 Division 9. Chapter 1 of the EOA identifies the 12 framework for developing the EOA of 2020 and explains how the report conforms to EOA 13 rules as described in OAR 660-009.

15 2.3 Goals and Objectives 16

17 The Dallas EOA of 2020 identifies the following goals:

18 (1) To project the amount of land needed to accommodate the future employment growth Page 116 of 191 19 within Dallas between the years 2021 and 2041;

20 (2) To evaluate the existing employment land supply within the city to determine if it is 21 adequate to meet that need; and

22 (3) To fulfill state planning requirements for a 20-year supply of employment land. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

23 The overall objective of Dallas EOA of 2020 is to identify likely industrial and other economic 24 development opportunities and corresponding employment land needs over the planning 25 period of the next 20 years.

26 27 2.4 Summary of Analysis 28

29 The EOA of 2020 provides detailed analysis of the factors that affect economic development. 30 Evaluated were national, state and regional economic trends that can influence the future of 31 economic development in Dallas. The EOA of 2020 also analyzes local employment data and 32 describes the competitive advantages / disadvantages to economic development that Dallas 33 may encounter in the 20-years. City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –2

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1 The EOA of 2020 applies safe harbor population rates and methods as described in OAR 660- 2 024-0040(9)(a)(B) for forecasting employment growth over the 20 years. Applying the safe 3 harbor assumed average annual growth rate of 1.6%, Dallas is expected to have 8,905 4 employees within the UGB by 2041. This represents an increase of 2,440 employees (38%) 5 between 2021 and 2041.

6 Applying methods as described by rule, the EOA of 2020 allocates total employment growth 7 projections by land use type. Land use types and respective percentages for growth are shown 8 in Exhibit 10 of the EOA. Assumptions identified for these land use types were subject to 9 initial review by the Dallas EOA Technical Advisory Committee and received subsequent input 10 and approval by the Dallas City Council.

11 The EOA of 2020 also identifies potential growth industries and describes specific site needs 12 for these industries. A Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) described in Chapter 4 of the EOA, 13 identifies vacant and partially vacant land available to accommodate employment growth by 14 land use type in the Dallas UGB over the 20-year period.

16 2.5 Land Sufficiency, Conclusions and Recommended Actions 17

18 The EOA of 2020 presents the following conclusions about commercial and industrial land

19 sufficiency: Page 117 of 191

20  Dallas has a surplus of industrial-designated land; 21  Dallas has a deficit of land planned for commercial uses that can be accommodated 22 within the existing UGB; 23  Dallas’s vacant commercial and industrial land varies in size to accommodate a wide 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 24 range of development opportunities, but few properties of significant size remain to 25 accommodate targeted growth industries; 26  Dallas will need to address key infrastructure needs to support commercial and 27 industrial development, especially in the Master Plan Nodal Areas; and 28  Dallas’s wages are lower than the regional average.

29 Chapter 5 of the EOA explains these conclusions in further detail and Exhibit 20 of the EOA 30 identifies the overall land supply and land demand for the 20-year period according to primary 31 land use map designations as shown to the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map 32 (Commercial and Industrial). These areas of the city are expected to provide the greatest 33 opportunity for future employment growth from 2021 to 2041. According to the EOA of 2020, 34 Dallas has a 163-acre surplus of industrial land (planned area) and a 94-acre deficit of 35 commercial land (planned area including the Commercial Business District). City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –3

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1 Based on the analysis and conclusions as presented, the EOA of 2020 identifies recommended 2 actions. The broadest of these recommended actions calls for updating policies identified in 3 Chapter 2, Volume 1 of the Comprehensive Plan. Existing policies identified in Chapter 2 of 4 Volume 1 were updated in concert with EOA work and were initially reviewed by the Dallas 5 EOA Technical Advisory Committee for input. Dallas City Council also carefully considered 6 these policies in concert with EOA preparation. These policies were also subject to final 7 consideration by the Dallas City Council prior to taking final action on the EOA of 2020.

8 Recommended actions identified in the EOA of 2020 are not to be confused with policies 9 identified in Chapter 2, Volume 1 of the Comprehensive Plan. EOA actions are a means for 10 implementing policies and are not considered approval criteria in the review of Quasi-Judicial 11 land use applications.

13 This chapter is divided into six sections, including this one. Section 2.2 describes population and 14 employment trends in Dallas between 1970 and 1990, and sets forth the methods and objectives 15 to be applied in projecting industrial and commercial land needs. Section 2.3 includes Dallas’ 16 year 2020 commercial and industrial employment projections. Section 2.4 summarizes the vacant 17 buildable industrial and commercial land available within the 1996 UGB to meet demonstrated 18 need. Section 2.5 translates employment projections into commercial and industrial land needs, 19 and identifies deficiencies. Section 2.6 describes how commercial and industrial land use needs

20 will be met in Dallas, and explains how the master planning process in Dallas will work for three Page 118 of 191 21 new mixed use “nodes.” This section also identifies the need for two large industrial sites at the 22 southeast edge of the Dallas UGB, to be served by the planned Fir Villa Road extension. 23

24 2.2 Employment Projections 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

25 This section describes the data sources and methods used to project Year 2020 employment.

26 2.2.1 Data Sources

27 The following data sources were used in projecting employment and land use needs in Dallas:

28  Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative Services, State of Oregon: 29 county population and employment projections for 2000-2040. 30 31  Center for Population Research and Census-Portland State University: City of Dallas 32 population projections. (see Technical Appendix 1.1) 33

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1  Employment and Population Trends-1970, 1980, 1990, U.S. Census of Population and 2 Housing. 3

4 2.2.2 Methods

5 The commercial and industrial land needs projection is based upon (a) population growth, (b) 6 projected employment growth by sector, © observed employee-per-acre ratios, and (d) policy 7 considerations, such as redevelopment potential and allocation of new jobs to specific land use 8 designations.

9 This technique is based on several key assumptions:

10 (1) Population and employment projections are accurate.

11 (2) Existing employee-per-acre ratios are a reasonable means of projecting future ratios. 1

12 (3) Employment by sector in Dallas will increasingly reflect the proportions by sector of the 13 Yamhill, Polk, and Marion County regional economy.

14 1 Dallas currently has about 30 commercial employees per acre, and 7 industrial employees per acre.

16 New jobs were divided into the following primary sectors: Page 119 of 191

17 Industrial Uses

18  resource industries (agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining), construction and 19 manufacturing, 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 20  transportation, public utilities, communication 21  wholesale trade

22 Commercial Uses

23  retail trade 24  services and FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) 25  public administration

26 Generalized employee-per-acre ratios for each of these categories were developed and multiplied 27 by projected employment increases to determine the buildable acres needed to accommodate 28 each broad employment sector.

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1 2.2.3 Projected Population Growth

2 The Dallas population projection for the years 1995-2020 was provided by the Center for 3 Population Research and Census, at Portland State University. The 1990 total population figure 4 was derived from the 1990 US Census of Population and Housing, and adjusted by an additional 5 750 residents to account for people living outside of the city limits but within the urban growth 6 boundary.

7 For the purposes of this projection, a household size of 2.5 persons per household (PPH) was 8 used for the City of Dallas; Polk, Yamhill, and Marion Counties. Although current PPH is 9 estimated to be 2.6, 2.5 PPH is a reasonable approximation of household size for this region 10 based on a continuing trend toward smaller household sizes over the planning period.

11 2.2.4 Projected Employment Growth 1990-2020

12 Employment projections were calculated in several steps. Baseline employment projections were 13 calculated using employment forecasts for Polk County provided by the State Office of 14 Economic Analysis. Dallas’ share of future Polk County employment was calculated as a 15 percentage of total county population. Approximately 21 percent of Polk County’s current 16 population resides within the Dallas urban area. Table 2.1 estimates that 750 residents lived in 17 the Dallas UGB, but outside the City Limits, in 1990.

18 Page 120 of 191 19 Table 2.1 shows the Dallas Urban Areas (City Limits plus UGB) projected population growth as 20 an increasing percentage of Polk County’s 2020 projected population growth. This table shows 21 Dallas’ share of County population increasing from 20 percent in 1990, to 24 percent by the Year 22 2020. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 23 Table 2.1 2020 Population Projection City of Dallas & Polk County

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1 Source: Office of Economic Analysis, State of Oregon; Center for Population Research and the Census, 2 PSU; Analysis by Winterowd Planning Services.

3 < 4

5 2.2.5 Jobs-Housing Balance

6 Recognizing that Dallas is a relatively small urban area, and that public policy can play a major 7 role in job creation, we applied a jobs-to-household ratio to project employment growth. The job 8 to household ratio compares the number of jobs to the number of households. Since Dallas seeks 9 to achieve a jobs-housing balance (rather than becoming a bedroom community), this ratio is 10 expected to shift towards more jobs per household over time. Several factors were used to 11 calculate the job-to household ratio.

12 Table 2.2 shows jobs increasing in relation to the number of households in Dallas. The result is 13 based in part on recent trends in Dallas and in part on Dallas’ policy to avoid bedroom- 14 community status by providing local jobs for its increasing population. Based on recent 15 employment growth in Dallas, it is estimated that the number of jobs in Dallas has increased, 16 relative to Polk County from 1990-95. In particular, Praegitzer Industries and Wal-Mart together 17 added approximately 500 employees between 1990 and 1995. By 1997, these two firms had 18 increased the number of employees to 850, based on telephone interviews.

19 This trend is expected to continue for a number of reasons. First, Polk County’s natural resource Page 121 of 191 20 based economy is not expected to produce a large number of new jobs over the next 10 years, 21 while Dallas can expect to accommodate an increasing proportion of service, retail and light 22 manufacturing employment. Second, Dallas has a high quality of life that is valued by many 23 employers. The City’s ―small-town‖ atmosphere, attractive natural setting and relatively low 24 crime rate are all highly desirable attributes. Third, Dallas has access to a well-trained work force 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 25 and is within easy commuting distance of the Salem area. Fourth, Dallas has an abundant supply 26 of serviced industrial land, which is sufficient to accommodate planned increases in basic 27 employment. Finally, as Dallas grows, it will create much greater demand for retail sales and 28 services; Dallas’ moderate-growth program will ensure that commercial land is made available in 29 appropriate increments over time, to avoid adverse impacts on the Downtown area.

30 For all of these reasons, employment growth in the Dallas urban area is expected to outpace 31 population growth and employment growth in Polk County. In 1990, we estimate that for each 32 1.8 households in Dallas, there is now one job. This ratio is indicative of an economy that 33 exports workers—a bedroom community. By 1995, although conclusive data is not available, 34 recent job growth in Dallas indicates that this ratio has decreased to about 1 job per 1.7 35 households. By the Year 2020, this ratio is projected to decrease to 1 job for each 1.3 36 households. The result is a need for approximately 3,000 new jobs through the Year 2020. City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –7

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1 Table 2.2 Employment Projection & Jobs-to-Household Ratio: Dallas Urban Area 1990-2020

2 3 Source: Center for Population Research and the Census, PSU; Analysis by Winterowd Planning Services. * The 4 1990 employment estimate assumes that approximately 200, or 25% of the 750 residents who live outside the City 5 Limits but inside the UGB, actually work in Dallas.

6 < 7

8 2.3 Commercial and Industrial Land Use Needs Projection

9 Section 2.2 projects a need for about 3,000 new jobs in Dallas through the Year 2020. This 10 section translates projected employment increases into the need for commercial and industrial

11 land. Page 122 of 191

12 2.3.1 Employment Trends

13 Table 2.3 shows employment by sector in Dallas as reported by the U.S. Census of Population 14 and Housing for the years 1970, 1980 and 1990. It is important to note that this part of the 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 15 Census represents responses from Dallas residents about what type of job they have (by sector of 16 the economy) not where that job is located. These numbers are still significant, however, because 17 they provide a detailed look at the participation of Dallas residents in the regional economy.

18 Resource based industries such as agriculture, fishing, forestry and mining experienced a 19 significant decline in the 1980’s, while the services and FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) 20 sectors increased by almost 190% from 1970 to 1990. Trends in manufacturing over this period 21 also have important implications for long-term land use planning. According to the U.S. Census, 22 there was no change in the number of nondurable goods manufacturing jobs between 1980 and 23 1990. However, despite the closure of the Caterpillar plant in 1988 which resulted in a loss of 24 360 jobs in the durable goods manufacturing category, Dallas still experienced a 13 percent 25 increase in this sector overall. Some of the increase in durable goods manufacturing can be 26 attributed to the opening of the Praegitzer Industries facility in the late 1980s. Generally the 27 manufacturing of durable goods continues to play an important role in the Dallas economy. City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –8

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2 Table 2.3 Dallas Employment by Sector, 1970 – 1990 Page 123 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. The 1970 Census data combines finance and insurance with business and repair services. Therefore 5 1970-1980 percent change was not computed ** Categories not defined in the 1970 census. *** Categories defined in the 1970 6 Census but not in the 1980 & 1990

7 < 8

9 2.3.2 Recent Employment Trends

10 The period between 1990 and 1995 saw significant changes in the employment among Dallas’ 11 major employers. Praegitzer Industries and Wal-Mart together added approximately 500 12 employees, and have increased that number to an estimated 850 employees in 1997. Table 2.4 13 shows Dallas’ major firms by number of employees in 1995. City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –9

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1 Table 2.4 Major Employers, Dallas, Oregon 1995

3 Source: City of Dallas

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6 2.3.3 Projected Employment by Sector

7 Table 2.5 shows projected employment by broad sector of the economy within the Dallas UGB 8 through the year 2020. Page 124 of 191 9 Table 2.5 Estimated Dallas Employment by Sector, 1990-2020 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

11 < 12

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1 2.3.4 Allocation of Employment by Sector to Commercial or Industrial Zones

2 The next step is to determine which zones are likely to accommodate jobs in each major sector of 3 the economy. Although there is no absolute relationship between job sector and appropriate 4 zoning category, it is reasonable to assume that:

5 (1) Commercial designations (Central Business District, General Commercial, Neighborhood 6 Commercial) generally provide for jobs in the retail trade, FIRE & services, and public 7 administration.

8 (2) The Industrial designation generally provides for resource-based industries, construction, 9 manufacturing, transportation, communications, and public utilities.

10 The relationship between commercial and industrial jobs, and commercial and industrial zoning, 11 is not always clear. Although the majority of manufacturing jobs occur on land zoned for 12 industrial use, trade and service jobs occur on both commercially- and industrially-zoned land. 13 For example, a trade sector such as an electrical supply store could locate in a commercial zone, 14 in a ―business park‖ or on industrial land. Similarly, corporate office headquarters may seek an 15 industrial location, but provide office jobs. A credit union might choose to locate in an industrial 16 area, near its client base. This probability, coupled with the rise in commercial employment and 17 decline in resource-based industrial activities, has increased the projected use of industrial land 18 for commercial operations.

19 The commercial/industrial land need projection adjusts for commercial employment in industrial Page 125 of 191 20 zones by assuming that 20 percent of projected new commercial employees will work on land 21 zoned for industrial use. However, such service and retail uses can be expected to use industrial 22 land more intensively than manufacturing uses. To correct for this discrepancy, the cross-over 23 commercial employees were calculated at 20 employees per acre. Dallas’ industrial firms 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 24 currently employ five persons per developed acre. Overall, this ratio is projected to increase to an 25 average of seven employees per acre, based on shifts in the economy away from land-extensive 26 industrial uses.

27 2.3.5 Commercial and Industrial Land Needs Projection

28 Table 2.6 shows the resulting commercial and industrial land need estimates for the period 29 between 1995 and 2020. Dallas will experience an employment increase of 3,033 jobs during the 30 planning period. This equates to a net land need of about 250 acres. Assuming that 20 percent of 31 the buildable land area will be used for public right-of-way and utility easements, there is an 32 overall need for 300 vacant buildable acres. Seventy (70) vacant buildable acres will need to 33 be zoned commercial and 230 vacant buildable acres will need to be zoned industrial.

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1 Table 2.6 Commercial and Industrial Land Need Projections, Dallas 1995-2020

2 3 1 The Commercial designation generally includes trade, FIRE & services, and public administration.

4 2 The Industrial designation generally includes resource-based industries, manufacturing, transportation, 5 communications, and public utilities.

6 3 This melded figure includes 849 industrial employees at 5 per acre plus 437 office/service commercial employees 7 at 20 per acre, for an average of 7 employees per acre.

8 < 9

10 2.4 Commercial and Industrial Land Supply

11 2.4.1 Methods

12 The supply of commercial and industrial land was analyzed using County Assessment &

13 Taxation Data and Polk County’s GIS system. The following parameters were established for Page 126 of 191 14 evaluating the existing supply of commercial and industrial land.

15  Vacant: Parcels greater than or equal to 4,000 square feet with improvement value of less 16 than $10,000. 17  Constrained: Parcels that are landlocked, within the floodplain, or containing slopes 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 18 greater than 25 percent. 19  Redevelopable: Parcels greater than or equal to .5 acres where the improvement value is 20 less than $50,000; and parcels in which the improvement value is less than the land value. 21 In such cases, it is reasonable to conclude that the building will be replaced within the 20- 22 year planning period.

23 2.4.2 Commercial Vacant Buildable Land Supply

24 Table 2.7 shows that Dallas has 18 acres of vacant buildable commercial land within the 25 UGB. There are 40 parcels. This figure includes vacant buildable land designated Central 26 Business District and Commercial on the Comprehensive Plan Map #1.

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2 Table 2.7 Summary of Vacant Buildable & Constrained Commercial Land Supply, Dallas Urban 3 Growth Boundary, 1996.

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7 2.4.3 Industrial Vacant Buildable Land Supply

8 Dallas has 174 acres of vacant buildable industrial land within the UGB. There are 88 parcels; 9 the average parcel size is 1.8 acres.

10 Table 2.8 Summary of Vacant Buildable Industrial Land Supply, Dallas Urban Growth 11 Boundary, 1995 Page 127 of 191

13 < 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 14

15 As documented above, Dallas has allocated sufficient industrial and commercial land, and has 16 made a commitment to providing urban services to this land, such that this projection can be 17 realized. Thus, from a buildable land perspective, Dallas has provided sufficient land to 18 accommodate about 3,000 new jobs by the Year 2020. If Dallas actually attracts this many new 19 jobs, and if population grows as projected by PSU, then the Dallas urban area will have achieved 20 a jobs-to-household ratio (1:1.3) that is indicative of a more balanced local economy. Moreover, 21 such a shift is quite realistic, given long-term trends towards suburbanization of both jobs and 22 housing and Oregon’s land use program, which concentrates jobs and employment within urban 23 growth boundaries.

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1 2.5 Industrial and Commercial Land Demand & Supply Summary Comparison

2 This chapter has analyzed the Dallas economy and projects the demand for commercial and 3 industrial land for the 23 year planning period. The buildable land inventory provides detailed 4 analyses of the existing commercial and industrial land supply within the Dallas urban growth 5 boundary. The following section summarizes and compares the demand for commercial and 6 industrial land with the supply of buildable commercial and industrial land.

7 Demand

8 Our estimates indicated that Dallas will need 70 additional acres of vacant buildable commercial 9 land and 230 acres of vacant buildable industrial land to accommodate anticipated growth 10 between 1995 and 2020.

11 Supply

12 The vacant buildable land inventory indicates that Dallas has 18 acres of vacant buildable and 13 redevelopable commercial land and 174 acres of vacant buildable and redevelopable industrial 14 land within the UGB. This figure includes both CBD plan designation and all other types of 15 commercial and industrial uses. Table 2.9 summarizes the commercial and industrial land supply 16 and demand for the planning period. Dallas has a deficit of 52 vacant buildable commercial 17 acres, and a deficit of 56 vacant buildable industrial acres.

18 Table 2.9 Summary Commercial & Industrial Land Need, Dallas 1995-2020 Page 128 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

20 < 21

22 2.6 Options and Policy Choices for Meeting Commercial and Industrial Land Needs

23 This section considers options and ultimate policy choices for designating and managing land to 24 meet commercial and industrial land needs.

25 2.6.1 Designation of Land to Meet Commercial Land Needs

26 Dallas needs approximately 70 acres of commercial land to meet long-term growth needs. The 27 City currently has 18 acres of vacant, buildable commercial land, in several small parcels. City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –14

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1 Generally, commercial land requires access to arterial or (at a minimum) major collector streets. 2 Commercial land should also be located near higher density housing, to minimize travel distance 3 and to encourage use of alternative modes (walking, bicycling, transit) of transportation. A 4 review of the 1987 Dallas Comprehensive Plan demonstrates that the City’s existing commercial 5 lands are (a) located along major transportation corridors, and (b) have large tracts of adjacent 6 multi-family land.

7 Bearing in mind the above considerations, there are several options for making up this deficit, 8 including the following:

9 (1) Expand the UGB to include additional commercial land along major streets at the urban 10 fringe;

11 (2) Rely on infill and redevelopment of existing commercially-designated areas;

12 (3) Rely on expansion outward from existing commercial areas, which would require 13 redevelopment of land currently designated for residential use;

14 (4) Extend the commercial strip west and east of the existing Ellendale Avenue commercial area; 15 and/or

16 (5) Create commercial/multi-family nodes along major streets, that are separated from existing 17 commercial areas by intervening residential land.

18 Option #1: The results of the 1997 Buildable land inventory make it clear that Dallas has a Page 129 of 191 19 surplus of land designated Single Family Residential and a shortage of land designated 20 Commercial (General Commercial, Central Business District, Neighborhood Commercial) and 21 Multi-Family. Statewide Planning Goals 14 (Urbanization) and 2 (Land Use Planning) require

22 that cities first look inside their UGBs to meet land use needs, before considering UGB 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 23 expansion. Because Dallas has an over-supply of Single-Family land that meets the siting criteria 24 for commercial land discussed above, Dallas cannot justify UGB expansion to meet commercial 25 land use needs at this time. Therefore, Option #1 was rejected.

26 Option #2: Since its adoption over 20 years ago, the Dallas Comprehensive Plan has 27 intentionally focused commercial development in the CBD or on land immediately adjacent to 28 the CBD along Main Street and Ellendale Road. In part for this reason, the City currently has 29 only 18 vacant acres planned for commercial use within the CBD or adjacent General 30 Commercial area. This analysis assumes that all of this commercial ―infill‖ land will develop by 31 the Year 2020, which may be optimistic. Although some redevelopment of existing, ―under- 32 utilized‖ commercial land will likely occur during the planning period, redevelopment cannot be 33 relied upon to meet a significant portion of commercial land needs.

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1 The Vacant Buildable Land Map #6 identifies parcels that are candidates for redevelopment over 2 the next 20 years. For purposes of this analysis, it is reasonable to conclude that infill and 3 redevelopment together will provide about 20 acres of land (about 480 employees) towards 4 meeting the City’s long-term commercial need.

5 Option #3: Dallas has chosen to rely extensively on Option #3 to meet long-term commercial 6 land needs. The Vacant Buildable Land Map #6 shows about 30 acres of vacant buildable 7 commercial land located east of N.E. Polk Station Road, north of E. Ellendale Avenue and west 8 of the planned LaCreole Drive extension. A traffic signal is proposed at the E. Ellendale 9 Ave./S.E. LaCreole Drive intersection to accommodate anticipated traffic demand in this mixed 10 commercial/multi-family area. In addition to a large Multi-Family area that already exists 11 immediately south of the LaCreole Commercial Node, new Multi-Family land has been 12 designated to the north and east, to reduce vehicle miles traveled and to encourage alternate 13 transportation modes. Master planning is intended to allow the developer and/or the City a great 14 deal of flexibility in the design and layout of the required commercial, residential and open space 15 areas. For this reason, the plan designations are intentionally drawn so as not to correspond with 16 property lines, and to allow adjustments in actual zoning boundaries, once the land is annexed 17 and assigned city zoning. However, the master plan must incorporate and plan for all of the land 18 within the ―Master Planning Area‖ shown on the Dallas Comprehensive Plan Map #1.

19 Required master planning for the LaCreole Node may occur in one of two ways:

20 (1) First, it may occur in conjunction with an actual development proposal. Under this master Page 130 of 191 21 planning approach, the developer would be required to prepare a plan that meets all of the 22 applicable policies of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Volume I. Although all affected 23 property owners must be consulted in the master planning process and their interests must be 24 considered, unanimous consent is not a requirement. The City will use the developer’s master 25 plan as the starting point, and may modify this plan through the Planning Commission and 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 26 City Council review processes. The City will make the ultimate rezoning decision consistent 27 with the master plan that it ultimately approves.

28 (2) Second, the master planning process may be initiated by the City prior to annexation and 29 rezoning of property. The City intends to request a TGM (Transportation and Growth 30 Management) grant from DLCD/ODOT to prepare a ―special area plan‖ for the LaCreole 31 area in the next biennium. (Fiscal Years 1997-99.) If Dallas is successful, this grant would be 32 designed to ensure ODOT coordination on the major transportation issues that are present in 33 this area, to meet the requirements of the Transportation Planning Rule (TPR), and to meet 34 the objectives described below.

35 Master planning will be required prior to annexation and rezoning of this mixed-use area, to 36 ensure that the following objectives are met:

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1 (a) multiple-family development precedes, or occurs at the same time as, commercial 2 development;

3 (b) piecemeal development (one or two properties at a time) does not occur in a manner that 4 detracts from the objectives of the mixed use node;

5 (c) transportation impacts are fully considered and coordinated with ODOT (Oregon Department 6 of Transportation);

7 (d) adequate public facilities, including transportation, are provided for in a timely and efficient 8 manner;

9 (e) required park and open space areas are provided in a timely manner;

10 (f) the design and layout of the internal circulation system, buildings and parking areas fosters, 11 rather than deters, pedestrian and bicycle access; and

12 (g) the new commercial area extends at least as far in an north-south direction (away from 13 Ellendale Ave.) as it does in an east-west direction (along Ellendale Ave.).

14 Option #4: Strip commercial development,‖ is explicitly rejected in both the 1987 and the 1997 15 Comprehensive Plans. Although all three new commercial areas are located along Ellendale Ave. 16 (Dallas’ primary transportation corridor), each of these is required to be at least as “deep” (back 17 from Ellendale Ave.) as it is ―wide‖ (frontage along Ellendale Ave.) to avoid a strip commercial 18 effect. In fact, one of the principal reasons for requiring ―master planning‖ is to avoid the Page 131 of 191 19 appearance and function of auto-orientated, strip commercial development. (See discussion of 20 Option #5, below.) Therefore, this option was rejected.

21 Option #5: This is Dallas’ preferred method of meeting most of the remainder of the City’s long- 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 22 term commercial land needs. Two new mixed neighborhood commercial/multi-family nodes are 23 provided for: one 5-acre neighborhood commercial district at the west end of the City (SW 24 Wyatt Street and W. Ellendale Ave.) and one 15-acre neighborhood commercial district towards 25 the east end (the extension of SE Barberry Ave. and E. Ellendale Ave.).

26 As with the LaCreole Commercial Node, master planning is intended to allow the developer 27 and/or the City a great deal of flexibility in the design and layout of the required commercial, 28 residential and open space areas. Plan designations are intentionally drawn so as not to 29 correspond with property lines. Adjustments in actual zoning boundaries are allowed consistent 30 with the approved master plan, once the land is annexed to the City.

31 Required master planning for the Barberry Node may occur in one of two ways:

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1 (a) First, it may occur in conjunction with an actual development proposal, as described under 2 Option #3, above.

3 (b) Second, the master planning process may be initiated by the City prior to annexation and 4 rezoning of property, as described in Option #3, above.

5 Required master planning for the Wyatt Street Node is much simpler, because this property is 6 currently under one ownership, and therefore can be master planned through the City’s Planned 7 Unit Development (PUD) process. However, this area would also be eligible to participate in a 8 TGM “special area plan” grant request.

9 Master planning will be required prior to annexation and rezoning (in the case of the Barberry 10 Node), or prior to planned development approval (in the case of the Wyatt Node) for these 11 mixed-use areas, to ensure that the following objectives are met:

12 (a) multiple-family development precedes, or occurs at the same time as, commercial 13 development;

14 (b) piecemeal development (one or two properties at a time, or a portion of a large property) 15 does not occur in a manner that detracts from the objectives of the mixed use node;

16 (c) transportation impacts are fully considered and coordinated with ODOT (Oregon Department 17 of Transportation);

18 (d) adequate public facilities, including transportation, parks and schools, are provided for in a Page 132 of 191 19 timely and efficient manner;

20 (e) required park and open space areas are provided in a timely manner;

21 (f) the design and layout of the internal circulation system, buildings and parking areas fosters, 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 22 rather than deters, pedestrian and bicycle access; and

23 (g) the new commercial area extends at least as far in an north-south direction (away from 24 Ellendale Ave.) as it does in an east-west direction (along Ellendale Ave.).

26 2.6.2 Summary of Commercial Land Need Decisions

27 Table 2.10 provides a summary of commercial land allocation to meet estimated 2020 land 28 needs.

30 City of Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Chapter 2, Vol. II: Background Document Page –18

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2 Table 2.10 Summary of Commercial Land Designation, Option #3 & Option #5

4 < 5

6 2.6.3 Industrial Land Allocation

7 As noted in section 2.6.1, above, Dallas needs approximately 230 acres of vacant buildable 8 industrial land to meet Year 2020 growth needs, and has about 174 vacant buildable industrial 9 acres within the 1996 UGB. Therefore, there is a long-term deficit of approximately 54 vacant 10 buildable industrial acres. There are several factors to consider when allocating industrial land 11 for a 23 year planning period: (1) parcel size; (2) ownership patterns; and (3) redevelopment 12 potential. First, in order to facilitate industrial growth, an adequate amount of buildable industrial

13 land must be available at parcel sizes large enough to make industrial development feasible. Page 133 of 191 14 OAR 660-09-015(3) requires that local governments inventory commercial and industrial land:

15 Comprehensive plans for all areas within urban growth boundaries shall include an inventory of 16 vacant and significantly underutilized land within the planning area which are designated for 17 commercial or industrial use. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

18 The Vacant Buildable Land Map #6 shows the vacant buildable, and underutilized parcels 19 contained within the current UGB. In addition, Table 2.11 at the end of this section summarizes 20 parcel size and ownership data for industrial sites within the UGB. In addition to parcel size, it is 21 important to maintain a choice among industrial sites, to avoid a monopoly situation. Statewide 22 Planning Goal 9 (Economy of the State) states that communities must provide suitable industrial 23 sites sufficient to meet the specific needs of anticipated industrial users. OAR 660-09-015 24 requires each city to determine the types of sites needed to meet long-term industrial demand. 25 This needs analysis should be based on an Economic Opportunities Analysis that identifies:

26 (1) the major categories of industrial and commercial uses that could reasonably be expected to 27 locate or expand in the planning area; and

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1 (2) the types of sites that are likely to be needed by industrial and commercial uses which might 2 expand or locate in the planning area.

3 OAR 660-09-025(1) establishes specific provisions for identification of needed sites:

4 The plan shall identify the approximate number and acreage of sites needed to accommodate 5 industrial and commercial uses to implement plan policies. The need for sites should be specified in 6 several broad “site categories”, (e.g., light industrial, heavy industrial, commercial office, 7 commercial retail, highway commercial, etc.) combining compatible uses with similar site 8 requirements. It is not necessary to provide a different type of site for each industrial or commercial 9 use which may locate in the planning area. Several broad site categories will provide for industrial 10 and commercial uses likely to occur in most planning areas.

11 Dallas has determined that at least four large light industrial sites (20 acres or greater) that are 12 suitable for (a) master-planned industrial park development, or (b) large industrial firms should 13 be provided within the UGB. These four large parcels should be under separate ownership to 14 allow for long-term choice in the market place. From a location standpoint, these four large sites 15 should meet the following criteria:

16 (1) 20 acres or more of buildable land;

17 (2) Adjacent to an industrial sanctuary to minimize conflicts with residential areas.

18 (3) Served by an existing or planned arterial or major collector street, that minimizes truck

19 traffic through residential neighborhoods. Page 134 of 191

20 (4) Gentle terrain (no more than five percent slope);

21 (5) Availability of water and sewer services, and with access to fire and police protection. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 22 OAR 660-09-025(2) addresses the long-term supply of land. This section requires 23 communities to designate land suitable to meet the site needs identified as a result of the 24 above analysis:

25 The total acreage of land designated in each site category shall at least equal the projected land 26 needs for each category during the 20-year planning period.

27 It has already been determined that Dallas needs an additional 54 acres, in the aggregate, to 28 meet demonstrated need for industrial land. Table 2.11 summarizes vacant, buildable parcel 29 size and ownership information for industrially-designated sites within the 1996 Dallas UGB. 30 According to the Dallas GIS data base, approximately 67 percent of all vacant industrial land 31 within the current UGB is owned by three companies. There are five vacant industrial parcels 32 within the UGB larger than five acres and they are all currently owned by Praegitzer 33 Industries. Moreover, Praegitzer alone owns approximately 61 percent of the total vacant

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1 industrial land. Willamette Industries owns approximately 6.7 acres, and Caterpillar 2 Corporation owns another 4.5 acres.

3 Underutilized industrial land ownership is divided among 18 landowners, Praegitzer 4 Industries owns the two largest parcels, which total approximately 10.6 acres, and constitute 5 26 percent of the total underutilized industrial acres within the current UGB.

6 Table 2.11 Summary of Vacant Industrial Land Parcel Size and Ownership, Dallas, 1997 Page 135 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

8 < 9

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1 Based on the above, and the identified need for at least four 20-acre industrial parcels under 2 separate ownership, amendment of the UGB is necessary. The City has examined the 1997 3 Dallas Buildable land inventory which identifies 40 potentially redevelopable industrial acres. 4 Parcels were considered viable candidates for redevelopment if they were greater than or equal to 5 .5 acres where the improvement value is less than $50,000; also parcels in which the 6 improvement value is less than the land value.

7 Historically, there is very little evidence to support the hypothesis that redevelopment of 8 industrial land will actually occur. For purposes of this analysis, it is reasonable to assume that 9 limited land ownership in Dallas will restrict industrial land availability more than 10 redevelopment is likely to provide additional opportunities for industrial development. 11 Therefore, redevelopment potential is effectively ―canceled out‖ by restricted availability of 12 vacant buildable parcels in Dallas.

13 Page 136 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

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1 Proposed new text is shown in italics, bold and highlighted in yellow.

2 Proposed text to be removed is shown struck-through, highlighted in blue.

3 Text shown <> explains the intended change.

4 Volume 2 of Dallas Comprehensive Plan

5 ******

6 Chapter 6: Urban Growth Management

7 8 6.1 Urban Growth Management Program 9 The outward growth of a City is a natural phenomenon, a necessary result of providing space for 10 more people and their activities. The manner in which a community grows, however, is of 11 primary importance. Good urban form, with distinct identity between urban and rural uses, is 12 fostered by sequential growth. That is, logical, phased growth outward from the main built-up 13 area of the City. Center areas presently served would clearly be the logical areas for phased 14 outward growth before outlying areas would be used. On the other hand, “sprawl” created by 15 strip development along arterial highways and a leapfrogging of close-in vacant land in favor of 16 the outer fringe areas promotes a diffused urban form and often results in untimely and illogical

17 expenditures of public funds, as well as “eating up” usable agricultural land at an unnecessarily Page 137 of 191 18 rapid pace.

19 The provision of a single urban service (usually water) by either the City or a “special purpose 20 district” can allow development to occur in outer areas at or near urban densities. Eventually the

21 developed area may require further urban services (sewers, streets, police protection, etc.). Many 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 22 times, the need for these services is brought about sooner than expected due to health hazard 23 conditions. In this situation, urban services are usually provided regardless of whether or not the 24 intervening area is ready for necessary development. Premature urban development, then, can 25 result in a distortion of urban service priorities and the misdirection of public funds without the 26 support of a sound tax base for the increased demand on City services.

27 Many costs arise from the conversion of rural/agricultural land to urban uses. These costs are 28 not, and cannot be, always measured in actual dollars. Among the many costs of converting 29 agricultural land are environmental, social, energy, and economic costs.

30 The environmental costs of urbanization are great and far reaching. Water pollution tends to 31 increase from urbanization. An urban area has a large portion of its land developed, thus not 32 allowing the water to enter the soil in the same manner as where no development exists.

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1 Urbanization not only increases the amount of runoff, but also puts oils, gasoline, suspended 2 solids, industrial wastes, and sediments resulting from increased erosion at construction sites 3 after the ground cover is removed, in addition to point source pollutants (such as sewage 4 treatment plant effluent, and industrial discharge into water sources). Organic wastes are also 5 increased, such as animal wastes (dog and cat), wood scraps from construction sites, and 6 vegetation (such as grass cuttings). Clearly, agricultural land is not without pollutants, such as 7 insecticide and herbicide runoff, sedimentation runoff (especially from improperly managed 8 fields), vegetation, and animal wastes. However, the great densities in an urban area, in 9 combination with the relatively small amount of open space, create considerably more water 10 pollution per acre than any other land use.1

11 Water pollution is not the only type of pollution increased by urban densities. Air pollution, 12 coming largely from automobile emissions, and industrial emissions are greatly increased by 13 urban densities. The Willamette Valley has a rather unique air pollution problem stemming from 14 agricultural land, that is, field burning. Because of the geology and climate of the Willamette 15 Valley, the smoke resulting from field burning tends to stay in the area. Field burning is 16 regulated, however, and restricted to specific time periods, making this problem temporary, 17 whereas urban types of air pollution are continuous. It is also important to note the increased 18 noise from all urban activities. (Obviously, noise is a direct result of any activity, urban or rural, 19 but it is heavily concentrated in an urban area to create much higher ambient levels.)

20 Probably the most difficult costs to measure, if they can be measured at all, are the social costs of

21 urbanization. Social costs are problems such as the “cost” to an individual of having to look at a Page 138 of 191 22 construction site. It is impossible to define the cost of an eyesore. Residents of an area 23 experience the “cost” of losing a view as a subdivision goes in where cultivated fields or 24 woodland previously existed. Other residents may experience a feeling of discontent, as the 25 community in which they have lived for many years changes due to rapid growth. Social costs 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 26 would also include having to wait longer in line at the supermarket because there are more 27 shoppers. Clearly, social costs are widespread and extend to every facet of community life, as a 28 community urbanizes.

29 The conversion of agricultural land to urban land also creates greater energy demand. As the City 30 grows outward, more and more costs of commuting are incurred. This causes increased demands 31 on gas and oil for commuter use. Eventually, greater numbers of people, using greater amounts 32 of energy, will require additional energy producing facilities to be built. It is important to note 33 that the type of new development makes a considerable difference in energy use. That is, the type 34 of buildings constructed and their configuration can greatly affect energy demand.

35 1 American Public Works Association. Water Pollution Aspects of Urban Runoff, prepared for Federal Water 36 Pollution Control Board. National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Springfield, VA. 37 January 1969. p. 12.

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1 6.1.1 Economic Effects of New Growth

2 The economic effects of new growth, and the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses are 3 far-reaching. New development creates the need for new roads to serve it, as well as new bridges 4 for better access. Maintaining the new roads as well as the old roads becomes more expensive to 5 the City. Patrolling the new roads creates greater demand on the police force. The police must 6 also control areas of development, eventually needing more personnel and facilities. The same is 7 true for the fire department. Growth causes greater demands on schools, parks and libraries as 8 well as causing demand for more sewers (both sanitary and storm) and water service. Many of 9 these costs are paid by developers as the new development occurs, but many are not. The cost of 10 those not paid by the developer (police, fire, schools, etc.) must be picked up by the taxpayer. 11 The new taxpayers residents moving into a community partially pay this, but most of it comes 12 from the existing tax base. that is, the existing taxpayers.

13 All growth does not create a burden on the taxpayer. New residents and businesses contribute to 14 the tax base in a community by paying their property taxes. The renter contributes by paying the 15 landlord’s property taxes. Growth in a community increases sales to local businesses. One new 16 resident shopping in the community causes more spending than merely the cost of the purchase. 17 This is known as the multiplier effect. This means that one dollar, after passing through many 18 hands, actually has a value to the community of more than one dollar. This cycle, in a healthy 19 economy, goes on and on, causing more growth.

20 One final economic consequence of growth is a shifting of tax burdens. One example of this is Page 139 of 191 21 the case of a farmer who owns land close to the City seeing his property taxes rise due to the 22 encroaching development which causes the assessed value of his land to rise. In some cases, this 23 can force the farmer to sell his land because of inability to pay the increased tax. The concept of 24 the urban growth boundary will not stop this problem, but will at least reduce much of the 25 uncertainty of the practicing farmer when the boundary to urbanization is drawn. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

26 Clearly, traditional values and attitudes with respect to growth have changed in recent years in 27 the eyes of both private citizens and public officials. No longer is it held true that growth in 28 whatever form is good. To be compatible, growth must contribute to and not detract from the 29 well-being and livability of the community. Furthermore, since the City will ultimately be called 30 upon to provide urban services, it should have a strong voice in the decisions which regulate the 31 use of land in its peripheral areas.

32 6.1.2 Farm Land Preservation

33 Because the Marion-Polk Boundary Commission has been dissolved, all annexations are now the 34 responsibility of the Dallas City Council. The concept of an urban growth boundary has been 35 established in state law (ORS Chapter 197). Statewide Planning Goal 14, Urbanization, requires 36 that: 3

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1 “Urban growth boundaries shall be established to identify and separate urbanizable land from 2 rural land.”

3 Thus, UGBs are designed to preserve farm land while concentrating growth in urban areas.

4 6.1.3 Purpose of an Urban Growth Program

5 The purpose of an urban growth program for Dallas, aside from compliance with State law, is to 6 provide for an orderly and efficient transition from rural to urban land use. The growth program 7 is based upon the concept that the City of Dallas is the logical provider of urban services and, as 8 such, should have control over its ultimate form. This is not to imply, however, that the urban 9 growth program sets an ultimate limit to growth. Rather, it provides a guide for urban expansion 10 and sets limits within a reasonable planning period. The decisions of where and when to allocate 11 scarce public resources becomes the principal determinants of where and when development 12 takes place.

13 The urban growth program consists of two separate parts: 1) the delineation of a specific 14 boundary separating urban and rural uses; and 2) the development of policy statements to assist 15 the decision making process with respect to the phasing of urban growth.

17 6.2 Urban Growth Boundary Page 140 of 191 18 The Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) delineated on Comprehensive Plan Map as amended by 19 Ordinance No. 1814 from May 2018, represents the limits to urban expansion. The area 20 encompassed by the urban growth boundary totals approximately 3,973 gross acres. The 21 document titled Final Housing Needs Analysis Report of the City of Dallas, dated June 27, 2019,

22 adopted as an appendix to Chapter 3 Volume 2, accounts for the buildable residential land 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 23 inventory within the UGB and applies methods that forecast the amount of land necessary to 24 accommodate future housing need to the year 2039. Results of the 2019 HNA show vacant and 25 partially vacant land within the boundary able to accommodate an additional 6,887 persons, as 26 forecasted by Portland State University Population Research Center to the year 2039. The 27 boundary line is based upon careful consideration of the following factors:

28  Existing urban areas 29  A demonstrated need to employ, house and service an expected population increase of 30 persons by the forecasted year. 31  The extent and location of natural hazard areas and urban open space. 32  The potential availability of urban services. 33  The maximum efficiency of land within and on the fringe of existing urban areas. 34  The economic, social, environmental and energy consequences. 4

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1  The preservation of agricultural lands (defined as Class I, II, III and IV lands). See 2 Chapter II, under soils. 3  The compatibility of urban uses with nearby agricultural activities.

4 5 Note: The Housing Needs Analysis Report of 2019 does not assess buildable commercial and 6 industrial land inventory within the UGB. Section 6.2 and other sections herein are to be 7 reevaluated though Economic Opportunity Analysis. 8 The document titled City of Dallas Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) Final Report of 9 XXX XX, 202X, adopted as an appendix to Chapter 2 Volume 2, referred to herein as the EOA 10 of 2020, accounts for the buildable commercial and industrial land inventory within the same 11 UGB as amended by Ordinance No. 1814. The EOA of 2020 applies methods that forecast the 12 amount of land necessary to accommodate future employment needs to the year 2041. Results 13 of the EOA of 2020 show vacant and partially vacant land within the boundary able to 14 accommodate an additional 2,220 new employees, forecasted to the year 2041.

15 Results of the EOA of 2020 show that Dallas does not have enough commercial land to 16 accommodate employment growth, but it can accommodate the deficit within the existing UGB 17 through the following actions:

18 Approve Comprehensive Plan map amendments to commercial from surplus industrial 19 land or surplus residential land; and 20 Accommodate complementary commercial employment in industrial areas through 21 legislative text amendment of the city industrial zone; and Page 141 of 191 22 Redevelop existing commercial land to allow more employment. 23

24 6.2.1 Locational Considerations 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

25 Generally, the boundary line to the west and north is set by physical limitations. The land beyond 26 is either unsuitable for urban development or slopes the wrong direction to connect to the City’s 27 gravity flow sewage system. One large portion of land adjacent to Rickreall Creek was excluded 28 from the boundary for two reasons: a large slide area (about 50 acres) is included in this area, but 29 more importantly, the vast majority of the property owners in the area specifically requested 30 exclusion from the Urban Growth Boundary.

31 The eastern boundary is determined by the enclaves of urban development in the vicinity of the 32 Dallas-Rickreall Highway and Fir Villa Road and the predominance of Class II and III land in 33 the area. To the south, it is felt that urban densities should not be encouraged beyond the present 34 City limits. Much of the area is devoted to orchards and the increased traffic associated with a 35 higher density use would conflict with the community’s main industrial area. In addition, 36 pumping would be required to augment water pressure to this hilly area. 5

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1 6.2.2 Implementation Measures

2 To accomplish the intent of the Urban Growth Program to provide for an orderly and efficient 3 transition from rural to urban land use, it must be a cooperative process between the City and 4 Polk County, jointly adopted by each government. The Urban Growth Program has been adopted 5 by both parties through intergovernmental agreement. The agreement sets forth the boundary, 6 policies and responsibilities of each political jurisdiction. Due to changing conditions, this 7 agreement should be reviewed from time to time to make sure that it fully implements the policy 8 direction found in this plan.

9 The Urban Growth Program is also implemented through policies which identify how public 10 facilities are financed, assuring new development carries its share of the cost of development 11 with existing residents. A description of the City’s policies for financing the provision of public 12 facilities is found in Chapter VI of the Plan.

13 The Urban Growth Program is not intended to be a static document. Rather, it must be reviewed 14 and periodically updated to meet the changing needs of the community. However, it is not 15 intended that the Boundary be periodically changed in size, except in minor revisions, unless 16 conditions change considerably from what is expected at the time of writing this plan.

18 6.3 Demonstrated long-term Land Needs Page 142 of 191 19 Statewide Planning Goal 14, Urbanization, and ORS 197.298, require that Urban Growth 20 Boundaries have sufficient buildable land to meet long-term (20-year) population (housing), 21 employment (commercial and industrial) and “livability” (e.g., land for parks, schools, churches 22 and other public and semi-public uses) needs. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 23 Note: Analysis of land needs pertaining to livability was not evaluated as part of the HNA of 24 2019 or EOA of 2020. This need will be evaluated with future amendments to Chapter 4 25 (Parks & Open Space) and Chapter 7 (Public Facilities). 26

27 6.3.1 Commercial and Industrial Land Needs

28 In 2020, the city conducted an Economic Opportunities Analysis as described in Chapter 2. 29 Table 6.1 Data from the EOA of 2020 shows the commercial and industrial land need estimates 30 for the period between from 1995 and 20202021 to 2041. Dallas will experience an employment 31 increase of 3,033 2,220 jobs during the planning period. This equates to a net land need of about 32 250 189 acres. Assuming that 20 percent of the buildable land area will be used for public right- 33 of-way and utility easements, there is an overall need for 300 vacant buildable acres. Seventy 34 vacant buildable acres will need to be zoned commercial and 230 vacant buildable acres 6

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1 will need to be zoned industrial. Based on land demand, Dallas is forecast to have a 163- 2 gross-acre surplus of industrial land and a 94-gross-acre deficit of commercial land. While 3 Dallas has a substantial surplus of industrial land, the deficit of commercial land suggests that 4 Dallas will need to carefully consider actions to accommodate the deficit within the existing 5 UGB.

8 < 9 10 6.3.2 Residential Land Needs Page 143 of 191 11 12 To determine the number of acres necessary to accommodate Dallas’ housing needs through 13 2039, the city conducted Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) in 2019 as described in Chapter 3 14 hereto. As determined by the HNA and shown in Table 6.2, Dallas needs a total of 365 net

15 buildable residential acres of which 254 acres is needed for single family/manufactured homes, 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 16 77 acres is needed for middle housing (townhome / plex) and 34 acres is needed for multi-family 17 high density housing. 18

19 6.3.3 Public and Semi-Public Land Needs 20 21 Table 6.3 combines the projected 2020 population increase with the adopted level-of-service 22 standard to determine Dallas’ park needs for the planning period. The estimated population 23 increase of 7,400 residents, and the adopted LOS, will create the need for approximately 18.5 24 acres of both community and neighborhood parks 25

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1 2 Note: Analysis of land needs pertaining to community and neighborhood parks is outdated 3 and was not evaluated as part of the HNA of 2019 or EOA 2020. Projected park land needs 4 will be evaluated with future amendments to Chapter 4 (Parks & Open Space). 5 6 Table 6.4 summarizes estimated school land needs in Dallas for 2020. Based on the Dallas 2020 7 population forecast of 19,043, Dallas School District No. 2 estimates the need for an additional 8 elementary school to hold 450 students, and an additional middle school to hold 800 students. 9 10 Utilizing the State Board of Education school site size criteria above it is estimated that 9.5 acres 11 will be needed to accommodate the elementary school and another 18 acres will be needed for 12 the middle school. Page 144 of 191 13 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

14 15 Note: Analysis of school land needs is outdated and was not evaluated as part of the HNA of 16 2019 or EOA 2020. School land needs could be evaluated with future amendments to Chapter 17 4 (Parks & Open Space) or Chapter 7 (Public Facilities). 18 19 6.3.4 Summary of Year 2020 Urban Land Needs 20 21 Chapters 2 - 4 document the need for industrial, commercial, residential and public\semi-public 22 land needs (schools, parks, public rights-of-way and other semi-public uses, such as churches). 23 Table 6.5 summarizes the estimated year 2020 urban land need. To accommodate estimated 24 population growth during the planning period, Dallas will need 1,024 acres of vacant buildable 25 land. 26 27

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2 Table 6.5 Summary of Year 2020 Urban Land Needs

4 < 5

6 6.4 Buildable land inventory

7 6.4.1 What is a “Buildable land inventory” Page 145 of 191

8 The buildable land inventory measures the supply of land suitable and available to meet long- 9 term residential, commercial, industrial and public/institutional growth needs. Not all vacant land 10 is suitable and available for development, due to topographical or ownership limitations. By the

11 same token, some partially developed land may be suitable and available for redevelopment or 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 12 infill. To minimize confusion and to allow for monitoring of assumptions, it is important to 13 define terms and describe methods carefully.

14 Note: The Housing Needs Analysis Report of 2019 conducted buildable lands inventory for 15 residential in accordance with Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) Section 660-008-0005 (2). 16 Methodology for determining buildable land inventory is described therein. HNA of 2019 does 17 not assess buildable commercial and industrial land inventory within the UGB. A separate 18 buildable land inventory is to be conducted through Economic Opportunity Analysis. The EOA 19 of 2020 conducted a buildable lands inventory for commercial and industrial development in 20 accordance with OAR Section 660-009. Methodology for a buildable lands inventory is 21 described in the EOA of 2020 and Exhibit 19 includes a map showing the location of 22 unconstrained vacant and partially vacant land that is planned for commercial and industrial 23 within the UGB. 24

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2 6.4.2 Methods and Definitions

3 As noted above, the term buildable land means land that is suitable and available to meet long- 4 term growth needs. If land is not buildable, it is either developed or unbuildable and is 5 therefore considered unsuitable or unavailable for future development. 2 The following 6 definitions describe mutually exclusive categories of land. The buildable land inventory was 7 executed based on these definitions.

8 Vacant Land means all parcels greater than or equal to ( > ) 4,000 square feet with 9 improvement value of less than or equal to ( < ) $10,000 which do not have an approved 10 building permit.3 Vacant land may be constrained or unconstrained.

11  Vacant Buildable Land means unconstrained vacant land.

12 13 2 The terms used in this study have a specific purpose -- to make generalizations concerning buildable land. The 14 terms defined herein should not establish City policy. For example, nothing in the term ―developed‖ would prevent 15 a property owner from demolishing a structure and replacing it with a more intensive development, provided that the 16 development is allowed by the comprehensive plan and applicable zoning standards. Similarly, the term ―vacant‖ 17 does not in any way imply that property owners are obligated to develop their property.

18 3 Parcels of less than 4,000 feet do not meet minimum lot size requirements and are considered unbuildable. Parcels 19 with improvement values of $5,000 or less are considered vacant. Page 146 of 191

21  Under-Utilized Land means all parcels > 0.75 acre with a single family residence, with 22 0.5 acres subtracted to account for the residence, regardless of zoning district.4 The 23 remainder portion of the parcel is considered ―vacant land‖ for purposes of this analysis. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 24 25  Constrained Vacant Land means vacant land less the portion of each vacant parcel 26 limited by any of the following: 27 1. Land within the 100-year floodplain 28 2. Land within clearly defined natural drainageways (ravines) or with slopes of 20% or 29 greater. 30 3. Landlocked or ―access impaired‖ parcels (there are very few of these). 31 4. Unavailable parcels: (a) land-banked industrial parcels and (b) parcels with under 32 public ownership are considered ―unavailable‖ for meeting long-term growth needs. 33 34  Redevelopable means all commercial, or industrial parcels > .5 acre where Assessment 35 and Taxation (A&T) improvement value is less than $50,000 and A&T land value >

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1 improvement value, which are not vacant or infill parcels. In such cases, it is reasonable 2 to conclude that the building will be replaced within the twenty year planning period. 3 4 Developed Land means land not included within ―under-utilized‖ or ―redevelopable‖ 5 categories. That is, land which is not suitable and available to meet long-term growth 6 needs. 7 8  Gross Vacant Acre means an acre of vacant land before land has been dedicated for 9 public right-of-way, private streets or public utility easements. Assuming 25% for streets 10 and utilities, a gross vacant acre will have 32,670 square feet of vacant land available for 11 construction. Land which has not been subdivided into residential lots falls into this 12 category. 13 14 Net Vacant Acre means an acre of vacant land, after land has been dedicated for public 15 right-of-way, private streets, or utility easements. A net acre has 43,560 square feet 16 available for construction, because no street or utility dedications are required. 17 Subdivided lots fall into the ―net residential‖ category. 18 19  Maximum Net Residential Density means the maximum density permitted by the 20 underlying residential zone on 43,560 square feet of vacant, buildable land. 21

22  Approved Subdivision Lots means a lot in a residential or industrial subdivision approved Page 147 of 191 23 by the City of Dallas. When determining residential densities, approved subdivision lots 24 are assigned one unit per lot.

25 HNA of 2019 and EOA of 2020 apply rule-based methodology and definitions shown for: 1) 26 Developed Land, 2) Vacant Land, 3) Partially Vacant Land, 4) Unbuildable Land, and 5) 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 27 Public or exempt land. Rule-based methods and definitions applied to the HNA of 2019 are 28 found in OAR 660-008, and rule-based methods and definitions applied to the EOA of 2020 29 are found in OAR 660-009. The EOA of 2020 describes methods and definitions applied in 30 Appendix B, titled Buildable Lands Inventory.

32 6.4.3 Information Sources

33 The buildable residential land inventory data from Housing Needs Analysis of 2019 was 34 extracted from the City’s land use data base. The buildable land maps were prepared and 35 analyzed by the City of Dallas planning staff, with the city’s Geographic Information System 36 (GIS). Additional building permit data was provided by the City for the housing need and density 37 analysis. A full list of all datasets is shown in Exhibit 3.1 of the Housing Needs Analysis, as an 11

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1 Appendix to Chapter 3, Volume 2. Note: Buildable land as planned for industrial and 2 commercial uses was not the focus of the inventory conducted for Housing Needs Analysis in 3 2019. A separate buildable lands inventory is to be conducted for land planned commercial and 4 industrial and is expected as part of Economic Opporuntity Analysis.

5 Buildable land as planned for industrial and commercial use was the focus of a separate 6 inventory conducted for Economic Opportunities Analysis in 2020. With assistance provided 7 by ECONorthwest, buildable land maps were prepared and analyzed by the City of Dallas 8 planning staff, with the city’s GIS software. The EOA of 2020 identifies all information 9 sources in Appendix B, titled Buildable Lands Inventory.

10 4 Many buildable land inventories consider vacant land with a house as either under-developed or infill property. 11 This study simply removes 0.5 acres for the residence and considers the remaining portion of the property to be 12 vacant. In reality, some parcels with a residence will not be further developed; in other cases, less than a half acre 13 will be reserved for the residence or the residence will be demolished. The 0.5 acre figure represents what is likely 14 to occur during the planning period, on average.

15 6.4.4 Methods

16 The City’s land use data base is grounded in A&T information maintained by the Polk County 17 Assessor’s office. The definitions outlined above were applied to the database to create 18 categories of vacant, under-utilized, redevelopable, and developed parcels. Utilizing Polk 19 County’s GIS system these categories were integrated with digitized maps of the City and 20 reviewed for discrepancies. Adjustments were made to the data and comprehensive plan maps Page 148 of 191 21 based on staff knowledge.

22 The following section analyzes the amount of buildable land available within the Dallas UGB to 23 meet future land use needs.

24 6.4.54 Residential Land Supply 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

25 The supply of vacant residential land includes vacant parcels and the remaining vacant portion of 26 under-utilized parcels. Constrained portions of vacant and under-utilized parcels were then 27 subtracted, consistent with the definitions described in statute and rule and in consultation with 28 staff from the Department of Land Conservation and Development. Exhibit 3.2 of the Technical 29 Appendix to Chapter 3, Volume 2, explains the method used for determining the net buildable 30 land inventory.

31 As explained in Chapter 3 of this volume, data from the 2019 HNA shows the amount of 32 buildable residential land within the Dallas UGB to be approximately 680 acres, of which 33 approximately 578 acres are zoned or planned for low-density residential, with approximately 55 34 acres zoned or planned for medium-density residential and approximately 34 acres zoned or 35 planned for high density residential.

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1 Since most commercial and mixed-use zoned land is expected to be developed for non- 2 residential use, the 2019 HNA assumed that only 25% of the commercial and mixed use land 3 area, inventoried at 13 acres for this purpose, will be developed as housing over the next 20 4 years. The summary of buildable land inventory is shown to Exhibit 3.11 of the HNA and is 5 shown below.

Net Buildable Residential Land by plan designation, Dallas UGB Net Buildable Total Net Vacant Land Redevelopment Buildable Generalized Plan Designation Area Land Area Acres Low-Density Residential 577.1 1.5 578.6 Medium-Density Residential 55.0 0.1 55.1 High-Density Residential 33.5 0.1 33.6 Commercial/Mixed Use 12.8 0.5 13.2 Total 678.3 2.2 680.5 6 Source: derived from prior tables, Dallas BLI Report, May 2019.

7 6.4.65 Commercial and Industrial Land Supply

8 Table 6.7 shows that Dallas has 18 acres of vacant buildable commercial land within the UGB. There are 9 40 parcels. This figure includes vacant buildable land designated Central Business District and 10 Commercial on Comprehensive Plan Map #1. The Vacant Buildable land inventory (Map #6) shows the 11 location of vacant buildable and under-utilized commercial parcels. The EOA of 2020 shows the 12 amount of unconstrained buildable acres for vacant and partially vacant land according to 13 existing industrial and commercial plan designations within the Dallas UGB. Results of the Page 149 of 191 14 EOA for 2020 show that Dallas has approximately 213 net buildable acres of industrial 15 planned land and 44 acres of commercially planned land. Of the buildable commercial land 16 supply, about 38 acres (84%) are located inside Master Plan Nodal areas. A summary of buildable land inventory for commercial and industrial is show to Exhibit 17 of the EOA is 17 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 18 shown below.

19 20 < 21

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1 Employment Land with Unconstrained Development Capacity (Vacant and Partially Vacant) 2 by Commercial and Industrial Plan Designation, Dallas UGB 2020

Total Buildable Buildable Acres Buildable Acres on Plan Designation - Zone Acres on Vacant Lots Partially Vacant Lots

Industrial 213 174 40 Subtotal (Industrial) 213 174 40 Commercial - outside Master Plan Nodal Areas Central Buisness District 1 1 Commercial 6 3 2 Commercial - inside Master Plan Nodal Areas Barberry Node Commercial Neighborhood 11 11 La Creole Node Commercial General 18 11 7 Mixed Use 5 3 3 Wyatt Node Commercial Neighborhood 3 3 Subtotal (Commercial) 44 32 12 3 Total 257 205 52 4 5 6 6.4.7 Industrial Land Supply 7 8 Table 6.8 shows that Dallas has 174 acres of vacant buildable industrial land within the UGB.

9 The Vacant Buildable land inventory (Map #6) shows the location of vacant buildable and under- Page 150 of 191 10 utilized industrial parcels. 11 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

12 13 < 14 15 16 6.4.6 Potentially Redevelopable Land Supply – The Mill Site. 17 18 EOA land supply analysis excludes approximately 58 acres of land located in the south 19 portion of the city, formerly developed as a lumber and plywood mill. This area, planned for 20 industrial, is referred to as the Mill Site and is depicted on the Dallas Buildable Lands 14

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1 Inventory as Potentially Redevelopable (a blue cross-hatched area shown to Exhibit 19 of the 2 EOA). 3 4 The EOA of 2020 includes an indeterminate list of potential development constraints on the 5 Mill Site. The EOA of 2020 does not assess the magnitude of these constraints or determine 6 the amount of land within the Mill Site considered to be unconstrained. For the purpose of 7 land supply analysis, the EOA concludes that the combined potential presence of these 8 development constraints are significant enough to warrant not including the Mill site from the 9 from the BLI as a site with clear redevelopment potential. The designation of “Potentially 10 Redevelopable” to the Mill Site means this area is worthy of future study for redevelopment 11 potential. 12 13 14 6.4.87 Public/Semi-Public Land Supply 15 16 Table 6.9 shows the current community and neighborhood park level-of-service (LOS) within 17 the 1996 UGB. 18 Page 151 of 191

19 20 Note: Analysis of land supply pertaining to community and neighborhood parks was not 21 conducted through the HNA of 2019 or EOA of 2020. Public/Semi-Public land supply will be 22 evaluated with future amendments to Chapter 4 (Parks & Open Space) and Chapter 7 (Public

23 Facilities). 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 24 25 26 6.4.98 Summary of Buildable Land Within 1996 the Dallas UGB – Combined Analysis 27 28 Table 6.108 summarizes the supply of vacant buildable land within the 1996 Dallas UGB, by 29 plan designation. This table excludes the plan designations of Public Open Space and Creek 30 Trail. There is an estimated total of 1,320 924 vacant buildable acres within the 1996 Dallas 31 UGB. as delineated on Dallas Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map, as amended by Ordinance 32 No. 1814 from May 2018.

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1 2 Note: Data shown in Table 6.10 does not reflect updated residential inventory from 2019. 3 < 4 5 Table 6.8 - Summary of Buildable Land Supply from HNA of 2019 and EOA of 2020 Urban Land Use - Inventoried Buildable Land from 2019 & 2020 Employment Commercial 44 acres Industrial 213 acres Residential * Low Density Residential 578.6 acres Medium Density Residential 55.1 acres High Density - Residential 33.6 acres Total: 924.3 acres Page 152 of 191 6 7 * Dallas Comprehensive Plan Land Use Map identifies one land use map designation for Residential while the 8 Dallas Zoning Map identifies three implementing zones: 1) Low Density, 2) Medium Density and 3) High Density 9 Residential. The HNA of 2019 accounts for all vacant / partially vacant land within the UGB planned for 10 Residential and further accounts for vacant / partially vacant land accounted for in one of three residential zones shown to the Dallas Zoning Map. Low Density Residential acreage numbers include vacant / partially vacant

11 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 12 land planned Residential with no city zone and shown to be located outside Nodal areas. 13 14 The HNA of 2019 did not inventory vacant / partially vacant land that is planned for Commercial or Mixed use. 15 Assumptions were applied to the HNA of 2019 to estimate a portion of planned commercial land that might be 16 developed in the future for residential in conjunction with a permitted commercial use where zoning allows. This 17 assumption is not shown to the table above as the BLI conducted for the EOA 2020 accounts for buildable land 18 planned for Commercial and Mixed Use and is included to the Commercial total of 44 acres as shown. 19 20 21 6.5 Comparison of Year 2020 Land Need, with 1996 Buildable Land Supply 22 23 Table 6.11 compares projected 1997-2020 land need with the supply of vacant buildable land 24 within the 1996 UGB. The 1996 Dallas UGB has a deficit of: 52 vacant buildable Commercial 25 acres; 56 vacant buildable Industrial acres; and 54 vacant buildable acres of multi-family 26 residential land. There is, however, a 458-acre surplus of vacant buildable Single Family land, 27 after accounting for needed neighborhood park and school land. 16

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2 3 < 4 5 Note: Residential data shown in Table 6.11 does not reflect data gathered in 2019. 6 7 6.6 Comparison of 1996 Vacant Buildable Land, with Proposed 1997 8 Comprehensive Plan Land Allocation

9 Page 153 of 191 10 Table 6.12 compares projected 1997-2020 land need with the vacant buildable land supply 11 within the proposed 1997 UGB. Note that 45 acres of vacant buildable industrial land are 12 proposed to be added to the existing (1996) UGB. 13

14 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

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1 2 <> 3 4 Note: Residential data shown in Table 6.12 does not reflect analysis of 2019. 5 6 Note: Data and analysis shown below is subject to change with future Economic Opportunity 7 Analysis. Page 154 of 191 8 9 Commercial & Industrial 10 The 1997 Dallas Comprehensive Plan reduces the deficit of Commercial land from 52 to 11 approximately 2 acres, and the deficit of Industrial land from 56 to approximately 11 acres. For 12 reasons detailed in Chapter 2 of this document, the 1997 Comprehensive Plan proposes the 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 13 addition of approximately 45 acres of industrial land, contained in two parcels, requiring an 14 amendment of the current UGB. It is anticipated that the slight short-fall in commercial and 15 industrial land (approximately 13 acres) will be made up through redevelopment of existing 16 developed commercial and industrial land. 17 18 19 Residential & Public 20 The 1997 Dallas Comprehensive Plan adds 70 acres of Multi-Family Residential land resulting 21 in a Year 2020 surplus of 16 acres. Commercial, Multi-Family Residential, park, and school land 22 allocations are all provided for on land within the 1996 UGB currently designated for Single 23 Family Residential use. The result is a reduction in surplus Single Family Residential land from 24 458 vacant buildable acres to 338 vacant buildable acres. The surplus acres of Multi-Family and 25 Single Family Residential land proportionately reflect the projected need for these two land 26 designations. 27

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1 Chapter 4, Volume I, of the 1997 Comprehensive Plan sets forth level-of-service standards for 2 Neighborhood Parks. This need (37 acres) will be met on land designated for Single Family 3 Residential use, and can be met though public park dedication or private, common open space 4 approved through the land development process. No additional community parks are proposed 5 because the City currently has a seven-acre surplus in this category, even after meeting Year 6 2020 growth projections. 7 8 6.75 Urban Growth Policies 9

10 As noted in the Introduction to this Chapter, Dallas has been very successful in implementing its 11 growth management program since adoption of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan some 20 years 12 ago. The basic program consists of the following:

13  Establish and maintain a 20-year Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to separate urban from 14 rural land uses and to achieve a compact urban growth form; 15  Require annexation to the City as a condition of urban development; 16  Require that key urban services (sanitary sewer, water, storm drainage and transportation) 17 be available as a condition of annexation to the City; 18  Prohibit urban development outside the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB); 19  Limit land divisions and new development on unincorporated land administered by Polk 20 County within the UGB, in order to maintain large parcels of land for future urban 21 development; 22  Grow from the City center outward in a concentric pattern and avoid strip commercial 23 development. Page 155 of 191 24 25 The 1997 update of the Dallas Comprehensive Plan builds upon this solid growth management 26 framework by: 27  Adoption of a ―Public Facilities Strategy‖ to allocate limited sanitary sewer treatment 28 plant capacity until the treatment plant is upgraded consistent with EQC standards 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 29 (expected by the Year 2000). 30  A commitment to follow-up, and update the City’s Urban Growth Management 31 Agreement in 1998 with Polk County to ensure proper management of land within the 32 UGB as prescribed in the Dallas Comprehensive Plan, Volume I, Goals and Policies. 33  Adoption of measurable public facilities standards that are to be applied in the review of 34 annexation, zone change and land development requests, in accordance with the Dallas 35 City Council Urban Growth Management Policy, 1989. 36  Amendment of the Dallas UGB to include approximately 45 acres of vacant buildable 37 industrial land and to extend Fir Villa Road to connect E Ellendale with the Monmouth 38 Cut-Off. 39 40 The most innovative provision of the 1997 Dallas Comprehensive Plan is the adoption of 41 master planning policies and land use regulations to be applied to three ―mixed use nodes‖ 42 located along Ellendale Road. The purpose of this master planning process is to ensure:

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1 2  efficient land use and avoidance of disjointed land development patterns; 3  adequate provision of public facilities and services; coordinate with ODOT on 4 transportation issues to minimize traffic congestion on arterial and collector streets; 5  provision of affordable housing opportunities and higher density housing near new retail 6 and service centers; 7  encourage use of alternative modes of transportation; provide parks, open space and 8 schools to population and employment growth centers; 9  meet demonstrated needs for multi-family housing and commercial land use. 10 11 In order to effectively implement mixed-use node and master planning concepts, and to address 12 concerns raised during the CAC’s public review process, the City is committed to seeking a 13 Transportation and Growth Management (TGM) grant to fund needed master planning and 14 development code update efforts. 15 16 6.8 Proposed Urban Growth Boundary Expansion 17 18 Statewide Planning Goals 2 and 14 establish the rules for amending urban growth boundaries in 19 Oregon. Goal 14, Urbanization, reads: 20 21 Urban growth boundaries shall be established to identify and separate urbanizable land from 22 rural land. Establishment and change of the boundaries shall be based upon considerations 23 of the following [need and locational] factors: 24 [Need Factors] 25 Demonstrated need to accommodate long-range urban population growth requirements Page 156 of 191 26 consistent with LCDC goals; 27 Need for housing, employment opportunities, and livability; 28 [Locational Factors] 29 Orderly and economic provision for public facilities and services;

30 Maximum efficiency of land uses within and on the fringe of the existing urban area; 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 31 Environmental, energy, economic and social consequences; 32 Retention of agricultural land as defined, with Class I being the highest priority for retention 33 and Class VI the lowest priority; and, 34 Compatibility of the proposed urban uses with nearby agricultural activities. 35 36 Factors 1 and 2 (and ORS 197.296) are applied to determine the how much land is needed to 37 accommodate growth over a 20-year period. Factors 3-7, the Goal 2, Part II Exceptions process 38 and ORS 197.285 are used to determine the where the UGB should be expanded. The 1995 39 Oregon Legislature enacted statutory language which reinforces and clarifies established 40 priorities for inclusion of land within an expanded UGB, provided that need can be 41 demonstrated.5 42 43 5 ORS 197.296 reads: (1) In addition to any requirements established by rule addressing urbanization, land may not be included within an urban 44 growth boundary except under the following priorities: (a) First priority is land that is designated urban reserve land under ORS 195.145, rule or 45 metropolitan service district action plan. (b) If land under paragraph (a) of this subsection is inadequate to accommodate the amount of land 46 needed, second priority is land adjacent to an urban growth boundary that is identified in an acknowledged comprehensive plan as an exception 20

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1 area or nonresource land. Second priority may include resource land that is completely surrounded by exception areas unless such resource land is 2 high-value farmland as described in ORS 215.710. 3 4 5 6 7 6.8.1 Need for Additional Industrial Land 8 9 Chapter 2: Sustainable Economic Growth, demonstrates a need for an additional 230 acres of 10 industrial land to accommodate planned industrial development through the Year 2020. To meet 11 this need, approximately 45 acres of vacant buildable industrial land, preferably in large parcels, 12 should be added to the 1996 Dallas UGB. The City projects that the remaining need for industrial 13 land (approximately 185 acres) will be met through redevelopment and more intensive use of 14 existing industrial sites. 15 16 17 6.8.2 Alternatives Considered to Meet Industrial Land Needs 18 Chapter 4 identified specific industrial siting needs, as follows: 19 1. acres or more of buildable land; 20 a) Adjacent to an industrial sanctuary to minimize conflicts with residential areas; 21 b) Separated from residential land by a natural buffer such as a stream corridor or a major 22 street; 23 c) Served by a existing or planned arterial or major collector street, that minimizes truck 24 traffic through residential neighborhoods; 25 2. Gentle terrain (no more than five percent slope); 26 3. Availability of water and sewer services, and with access to fire and police protection 27 Page 157 of 191 28 Dallas carefully examined vacant buildable areas within the UGB, and found no land that met 29 these siting criteria. Land north of Miller Avenue and Rickreall Creek should be reserved for 30 residential and open space uses. 31 32 Extension of the industrial area to the west, across Ash Creek, was rejected because of: 33 a) the lack of parcels 20 acres or greater in size; 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf 34 b) conflicts with existing residential areas; 35 c) the natural buffer provided by Ash Creek would no longer be effective; 36 37 ______38 (c) If land under paragraphs (a) and (b) of this subsection is inadequate to accommodate the amount of land 39 needed, third priority is land designated as marginal land pursuant to ORS 197.247 (1991 Edition). 40 (d) If land under paragraphs (a) to (c) of this subsection is inadequate to accommodate the amount of land 41 needed, fourth priority is land designated in an acknowledged comprehensive plan for agriculture or forestry, or 42 both. 43 (2) Higher priority shall be given to land of lower capability as measured by the capability classification system or 44 by cubic foot site class, whichever is appropriate for the current use. 45 (3) Land of lower priority under subsection (1) of this section may be included in an urban growth boundary if land 46 of higher priority is found to be inadequate to accommodate the amount of land estimated in subsection (1) of this 47 section for one or more of the following reasons: 48 (a) Specific types of identified land needs cannot be reasonably accommodated on higher priority lands;

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1 (b) Future urban services could not reasonably be provided to the higher priority due to topographical or 2 other physical constraints; or (c) Maximum efficiency of land uses within a proposed urban growth 3 boundary requires inclusion of lower priority land in order to include or to provide services to higher 4 priority land. 5 ______6 7 d) inadequate transportation access; and 8 e) truck traffic would unnecessarily be routed through residential areas and downtown Dallas. 9 10 6.8.3 Selected Alternative Outside the UGB 11 12 The City recognizes that a thorough consideration of alternative sites outside the 1996 UGB must 13 take place before a final decision regarding UGB can be made. However, Dallas has tentatively 14 selected approximately 45 acres immediately east of the existing industrial area, in order to allow 15 the extension of SE Fir Villa Road, to connect E Ellendale Road with the Monmouth Cut-Off. 16 There are no significant differences in agricultural soil classifications or servicing costs for land 17 abutting the southeast UGB, adjacent to industrial land. 18 19 The strongest argument in favor of extending the UGB directly to the east relate to transportation. 20 This extension would allow truck traffic to reach the industrial area from Salem without traveling 21 through the center of the City. Moreover, developer financing of the Fir Villa Road extension is 22 much more likely if land adjacent to this major collector street can be developed. Finally, the 23 success of the mixed-use nodes at Barberry and LaCreole depends, in part, on avoiding truck 24 traffic through these master-planned areas. 25 Page 158 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

City of Dallas EOA-TAC Meeting Schedule / Minutes Final Update as of December 9, 2020

Tuesday, May 19, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #1: Economic Development Objectives. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral - Meeting ID: 149 967 7375

Minutes: This meeting introduced the Committee to the consultant, staff and project while providing an overview of the tasks ahead. Mayor provided greeting. Staff and the consultant received feedback from the Committee about Dallas’ strengths, weaknesses and opportunities for economic development. No action taken. Attending from Committee: Paraskevas, Knous, Iott, Ray, Tucker, Teal, Henshaw, Cox, Shein, Santee-Malloy, Thornton and Schmidgall. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Goodman, Raimann. Also attending: Dalton.

______Tuesday, June 16, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #2: Evaluation of Employment Land Availability and Need. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral - Meeting ID: 149 230 0830

Minutes: This meeting began with reviewing the results of the Buildable Land Inventory (BLI) map / data. The committee then discussed preliminary findings on economic trends analysis and employment growth forecasts, along with competitive advantages / disadvantages, especially for target industries. At the end of this meeting, committee members were encouraged to provide specific comments on the BLI map data and the competitive advantages / disadvantages for target industries. No action taken. Attending from Committee: Christensen, Vasquez, Paraskevas, Knous, Iott, Ray, Tucker, Teal, Henshaw, Cox, Shein, Santee-Malloy, Thornton and Schmidgall. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Goodman, Raimann. Also attending: Dalton.

______Tuesday, July 21, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #3: Site Suitability and Preliminary Assessment of Land Sufficiency. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral -Meeting ID 149 805 3544

Minutes: ECONorthwest presented the refined BLI results and asked the committee if these results seemed accurate. Page 159 of 191 Committee consensus was yes, accurate. Consultant continued with a list of Dallas’ competitive advantages / disadvantages. Committee identified slight changes but also agreed that these apply to Dallas. Consultant also asked committee to confirm two target industries identified from the last meeting showing statistical growth potential. Committee confirmed. Discussion followed about the health care industry as other potential target. The consultant then presented information about site suitability and the preliminary findings of the EOA for land sufficiency. The consultant also identified the current growth rate of 0.98% and explained how this can be supported by substantial 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf evidence. The consultant also asked committee members for thoughts on two safe-harbor growth rate assumptions of 1.13% & 1.61%. Discussion ensued with most committee members favoring 1.13% as a practical approach for forecasting 20-year growth. Consultant provided a preliminary analysis #s on both %s and explained how Dallas has a projected surplus for Industrial and projected deficit for commercial under both %s. Finally, consultant identified existing Comp Plan policies of Chapter 2 and explained how discussion about policies is anticipated for August 18. Attending from Committee: Christensen, Paraskevas, Ray, Tucker, Henshaw, Cox, Shein and Schmidgall. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Latta, Goodman, Raimann. Also attending: Dalton.

______Tuesday, August 18, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #4: Economic Development Implementation Policies and Action Plan. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral -Meeting ID 1487645331

Minutes: ECONorthwest recapped earlier committee discussion and conveyed feedback received from a City Council workshop held on August 3. ECONorthwest explained how Council members expressed preference for the 1.61% safe-harbor growth rate assumption. Committee members expressed no concerns with this preference based on the understanding that it would provide greater flexibility. ECONorthwest also explained how Council members

City of Dallas EOA-TAC meeting schedule / minutes as of December 9, 2020. 1 City of Dallas EOA-TAC Meeting Schedule / Minutes Final Update as of December 9, 2020 expressed thoughts on government and retail growth rate assumptions (less than shown). ECONorthwest then facilitated a discussion about draft policies and potential actions necessary to achieve the City’s vision for economic development. ECONorthwest and staff referred Committee to draft changes identified in Draft Version 1 of Chapter 2, Vol. 1 from the Dallas Comprehensive Plan. Committee discussion ensued. Certain policies were recommended for removal by staff the consultant (e.g. Encourage the development of an industrial or business parking within Dallas city limits – 2.1.4). The committee concurred - remove. Other policies were recommended for modification. The committee expressed general agreement with identified changes. At the end of the meeting, ECONorthwest provided committee members with an opportunity to forward specific / individual comments about the policies to staff by August 31. Attending from Committee: Paraskevas, Knous, Iott, Ray, Tucker, Teal, Henshaw, Shein, Santee-Malloy and Schmidgall. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Goodman, Raimann and Latta. Also attending: Dalton.

______Tuesday, October 27, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #5: Revising the Economic Development Strategy and Action Plan. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral Meeting ID: 149 580 6485.

Minutes: Prior to the October 27 meeting, ECONorthwest produced and sent a draft version of the full EOA document (84 pages) to the committee one week ahead of the scheduled meeting. The committee also received a revised Draft of Chapter 2, Vol. 1 from the Dallas Comprehensive Plan (Version 2 of draft policies). Beth Goodman of ECONorthwest recapped past discussion and then referred the committee to the draft policies document. ECONorthwest facilitated discussion to refine the draft policies, seeking committee concurrence. ECONorthwest also called attention to draft actions contained in the full EOA draft and explained how these actions correspond to draft policies. The committee identified certain word choice preferences in review of draft policies. The committee also recommended word choice preferences to Goal G as proposed. ECONorthwest then directed committee attention to the full draft EOA document and specially the Recommend Actions shown to pages 45 through 50. The committee discussed and recommended certain changes to draft actions identified to these pages. ECONorthwest and city staff explained next steps. No action taken. Attending from Committee: Christensen, Paraskevas, Knous, Cox, Ray, Henshaw, Shein, Santee-Malloy and Thornton. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Goodman and Raimann. Also attending: Dalton. Page 160 of 191

Tuesday, December 8, 2020, 5:30 p.m. Advisory Committee Meeting #6: Final EOA and Economic Development Strategy and Action Plan. This meeting was conducted via RingCentral Meeting ID: 149 825 6966

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Minutes: The purpose of this meeting was to revise and finalize recommendations as necessary. Beth Goodman of ECONorthwest inquired if committee members had any final recommendations or edits. The committee asked questions for clarification purposes, but there were no comments or concerns conveyed to the draft policy document (Chapter 2 Vol. 1). Staff and the consultant also asked if there were any final comments on the EOA document. There were none. Staff informed the committee of next steps and how there would be final hearings-ready documents produced and posted to the website by the end of the month.

Attending from Committee: Christensen, Paraskevas, Knous, Iott, Ray, Tucker, Teal, Henshaw, Cox, Shein, Santee- Malloy, Thornton and Schmidgall. Attending from Staff / Consultant: Whyte, Goodman, Raimann.

City of Dallas EOA-TAC meeting schedule / minutes as of December 9, 2020. 2

Planning and Building Department

Memorandum

To: Planning Commission From: Scott Whyte, Planning Director Date: February 2, 2021 Re: Welcome John Schulte, new Planning Commission member, Orientation Refresher for all Commissioners

Attached are Planning Commissioner Orientation sheets. Topics include:

1. Conflict of Interest / Bias / Ex-parte Contact; and

2. Role & Responsibilities of Planning Commissioners; and

3. How to be a Highly Effective Commissioner; and

Page 161 of 191 4. Chapter 2 of the Dallas City Code - The Planning Commission

On February 9, please welcome the arrival of new Commissioner John Schulte. Also on February 9, Lane Shetterly, City Attorney will provide an overview on Conflict of Interest, Bias, Ex-parte Contact and be available for questions.

2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 162 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 163 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 164 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 165 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 166 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 167 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 168 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 169 of 191 2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 170 of 191 CITY OF DALLAS PLANNING COMMISSION STAFF REPORT

MEETING DATE: FEBRUARY 9, 2021 REPORT DATE: FEBRUARY 2, 2021 TOPIC: SMITH GARAGE - #CUP-21-01

Application Type: Conditional Use Owner: Regan Smith Applicant: Regan Smith Location: 172 SW Birch Street

RECOMMENDED ACTION Approval with Conditions

BACKGROUND INFORMATION Zoning: I - Industrial Comprehensive Plan Map: Industrial Floodplain: No Floodplain Adjacent Land Uses: Single-family residences, Railroad Page 171 of 191 Prior Land Use Approvals: None Found

PROJECT OVERVIEW The applicant, Regan Smith, is the owner of the subject property, located at 172 SW Birch Street. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf This property contains a single-family residence located within the industrial zone, wherein pre- existing lawfully established dwellings are a permitted use, as are accessory structures. The applicant wishes to construct a detached garage for residential household purposes. In residential zones, such detached accessory structures are permitted to be three feet from rear property lines. However, in the industrial zone the same provision does not apply; instead DDC.2.4.030.D.1 specifies a minimum setback of 20 feet to any structure. As provided in DDC.2.4.030.B, the approvals body may decrease the standard setback yards through the conditional use process, provided that all applicable building and fire safety codes are met.

APPROVAL CRITERIA: DDC.4.4.040.A – Conditional Use Permit Approval Criteria. DDC.4.2.060.A – Site Design Review Approval Criteria.

Staff refer to and incorporate the applicant’s written narrative for supportive findings in response to the above mentioned criteria. These criteria are further identified in this report with specific findings. All applicable standards appear to be met, as follows: CONDITIONAL USE CRITERIA Applicable approval criteria are contained in Dallas Development Code section 4.4.040.A.

CRITERION: DDC.4.4.040.A.1. – The site size, dimensions, location, topography and access are adequate for the needs of the proposed use, considering the proposed building mass, parking, traffic, noise, vibration, exhaust/emissions, light, glare, erosion, odor, dust, visibility, safety and aesthetic considerations

FINDING: As stated in the applicant’s narrative, the proposed configuration facilitates vehicular access to the garage. Staff note that a three foot setback is permissible in the residential zone, as it maximizes the available space in the rear yard of the dwelling for household purposes. A three foot setback will comply with minimum fire code requirements, and also allows adequate space behind the structure for maintenance access. As the structure is for household use it would not generate the noise, vibration, odor, or emissions of an industrial operation, so a three foot setback would appear adequate for the needs of the proposed use.

As zoning allows for industrial use, staff acknowledge how the proposed accessory structure could be converted in the future to something different than intended at this time. For this reason, Staff proposes a condition (#2) to acknowledge this use. This condition would not preclude the ability to modify the Conditional Use Permit in the future.

CRITERION: DDC.4.4.040.A.2. – The negative impacts of the proposed use on adjacent properties and on the public can be mitigated through application of other Code standards, or other reasonable Page 172 of 191 conditions of approval.

FINDING: The applicant’s narrative does not specify any potential negative impacts, and staff were not able

to identify any potential negative impacts of the proposed use. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

CRITERION: DDC.4.4.040.A.3. – All required public facilities have adequate capacity to serve the proposal.

FINDING: The existing dwelling is already serviced by public facilities, includes water, sewer, storm drainage, and street systems with adequate capacity to serve the proposed use.

SITE DESIGN REVIEW CRITERIA The Site Design Review approval criteria shall be met. The Planning Official may waive the application requirements for Site Design Review upon determining that the Conditional Use Permit application provides sufficient information to evaluate the proposal.

CRITERION: DDC.4.2.060.A.1 – The application is complete, as determined in accordance with chapter 4.1 – Types of Applications and Section 4.2.050.

FINDING: The application was determined to be complete, and the Planning Official waived further application requirements for Site Design Review upon finding that the existing residential dwelling will remain as-is, and for this reason the conditional use application provides sufficient information to evaluate the proposal.

CRITERION: DDC.4.2.060.A.2 – The application complies with all of the applicable provisions of the underlying Land Use District (Article 2), including building and yard setbacks, lot area and dimensions, density and floor area, lot coverage, building height, building orientation, architecture, and other applicable provisions.

FINDING: The applicant’s residence is located within the industrial zone, wherein pre-existing lawfully established dwellings are a permitted use. Accessory structures are a permitted use when accessory to a permitted primary use. The proposal complies with the height limit and lot coverage restrictions for the industrial zone, but does not comply with the rear yard setback. As previously Page 173 of 191 stated, DDC.2.4.030.D.1 specifies a minimum setback of 20 feet to any structure. Staff note that in residential zones, such detached accessory structures are permitted to be three feet from rear property lines, and as the structure is for residential household use the applicant wishes to construct it to the residential standards, and accordingly has requested a Conditional Use Permit, as allowed

by DDC.2.4.030.B. 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

CRITERION: DDC.4.2.060.A.3 – The applicant shall be required to upgrade any existing development that does not comply with the applicable land use district standards, in conformance with Chapter 5.2, non- conforming uses and development.

FINDING: Staff are not aware of any pre-existing non-conforming development which would need to be upgraded as part of this proposal. This criterion does not apply.

CRITERION: DDC.4.2.060.A.4 – The proposal complies with all of the design standards in Article 3.

FINDING: The application does not involve driveway access modifications, so Chapter 3.1 does not apply. Off-street parking is not required for accessory structures, so Chapter 3.3. does not apply. The application does not involve constructing public infrastructure, so Chapter 3.4 does not apply. The application does not involve wireless communication facilities, so Chapter 3.5 does not apply. The application does not involve new signs not already permitted, so Chapter 3.6 does not apply.

CRITERION: DDC.4.2.060.A.5 – Existing conditions of approval required as part of a prior land use decision, including land divisions, conditional use permits, mater planned developments, or other approval, shall be met.

FINDING: Staff did not find any relevant prior conditions of approval. This criterion does not apply.

RECOMMENDED ACTION

Staff recommends that the Conditional Use Permit application be approved with the following conditions.

RECOMMENDED CONDITIONS OF APPROVAL

1. The applicant shall obtain all required building permits and receive final inspection from Page 174 of 191 the Dallas Building Department.

2. The structure shall not be used for commercial purposes, with the exception of lawfully permitted home occupations in compliance with the Dallas Development Code.

Converting the structure for commercial or industrial purposes is subject to approval 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf through the Conditional Use Permit modification process.

RECOMMENDED MOTION:

I move to approve the Conditional Use Permit with the conditions stated in the staff report.

EXHIBITS:

Applicant’s Written Narrative and Plans Notice of Public Hearing Page 175 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

Page 176 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

Page 177 of 191 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

2021 02 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf Page 178 of 191 CITY OF DALLAS NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING APPLICATION: Smith Garage - Conditional Use Permit #CUP-20-01

You are receiving this notice because you own property within 150 feet of the subject property. If you wish to submit comments in response to this proposal, then instructions are provided below.

PROPERTY LOCATION: 172 SW Birch Street – (See map on reverse)

APPLICANT: Regan Smith.

NATURE OF REQUEST: Allow for the construction of a 480 square foot detached garage to be set back three feet from the rear property line, where a twenty foot setback is otherwise required in the industrial zone.

APPLICABLE CRITERIA: DDC Chapter 4.4.040.A – Conditional Uses

HEARING DATE / TIME: 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, February 9, 2021

HEARING LOCATION:* Online: http://meetings.ringcentral.com . . Meeting ID: 149 735 7295 Telephone: 1-623-404-9000 ...... Meeting ID: 149 735 7295 * City Hall is currently closed to the public

CITY STAFF CONTACT: Chase Ballew, City Planner Phone: 503-831-3570 [email protected] TDD: 503-623-7355

At the above day and time the Dallas Planning Commission will hold a public hearing on the application of Regan Smith for a Conditional Use permit to allow for the construction of a 13.4 foot tall, 480 square foot detached garage. The proposed garage is set back three feet from the rear property line, where a twenty foot Page 179 of 191 setback is otherwise required.

The Dallas Planning Commission will consider testimony which addresses the applicable criteria listed above. You may submit testimony by writing the Dallas Planning Department, 187 SE Court Street, Dallas, OR 97338, or by speaking at the virtual public hearing. All written comments received by the Planning Department by February 1, 2021 will be forwarded to the Commission as part of the staff report. The public hearing will be 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf conducted in a manner that permits testimony from all interested parties.

This public hearing is being conducted online due to public gathering restrictions. You may attend this meeting digitally by visiting the website listed above, calling the phone number above, or downloading the RingCentral app. You will need to enter the meeting ID when prompted. If you are unable to access the meeting online or by phone, contact the Dallas Planning Department at least 48 hours in advance to request reasonable accommodation.

The staff report, the revised application and documents and evidence submitted by or on behalf of the applicant, and the applicable approval criteria will be available at least 7 days prior to the hearing, for review online at: www.dallasor.gov/66. Upon request, copies will be provided at reasonable cost.

Failure of an issue to be raised in a hearing, in person or by letter, or failure to provide statements or evidence sufficient to afford the decision maker an opportunity to respond to the issue precludes appeal to the Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA) based on that issue. Dated: January 19, 2021

NOTICE TO MORTGAGEE, LIENHOLDER, VENDOR, OR SELLER, ORS 215 REQUIRES THAT IF YOU RECEIVE THIS NOTICE IT MUST BE PROMPTLY FORWARDED TO THE PURCHASER. The recipient of this notice is hereby responsible to promptly forward a copy of this notice to every person with a documented interest, including a renter or lessee. Public Notice Map Conditional Use #CUP-21-01

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J P M B W O U S R S P 2021 02 Planning Commission Combined Agenda.pdf

SW Birch Street Permits Issued: Page 2 of 11

Residential 1 & 2 Fam Dwelling (New Only) Limited

233-20-000604-DWL Issued: 1/6/21 Fees: $19,509.63 Valuation: $190,000.00 Address: 1448 SE SNOWBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA15100 Owner: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Licensed Prof: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: New Home 233-20-000605-DWL Issued: 1/6/21 Fees: $19,750.75 Valuation: $222,673.89 Address: 1434 SE SNOWBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA15000 Owner: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Licensed Prof: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: New Home GAB 10 Lot# 14 233-20-000606-DWL Issued: 1/12/21 Fees: $19,518.49 Valuation: $190,000.00 Address: 1422 SE SNOWBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA14900 Owner: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Licensed Prof: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: New Home 233-20-000637-DWL Issued: 1/6/21 Fees: $18,719.09 Valuation: $223,799.55 Address: 2082 SE ACADEMY ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534AA01600 Owner: CERES GLEANN 2 LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1625SF SFR 233-20-000646-DWL Issued: 1/8/21 Fees: $38,240.28 Valuation: $520,000.00 Address: 390 NW DENTON AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DB08000 Owner: CHIRA CONSTRUCTION INC Licensed Prof: CHIRA CONSTRUCTION INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 390 & 394 NW Denton - New construction of duplex The Oaks Lot# 6 233-20-000652-DWL Issued: 1/22/21 Fees: $19,521.86 Valuation: $186,412.50 Address: 1625 SE BARBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA10900 Owner: GLEANNS AT BARBERRY I LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1409SF SFR TGAB9 Lot 11

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1/1/2021 through 1/31/2021 dallasor.gov Includes all valuations Record Types Selected: -All- Commercial Mechanical

233-20-000682-MECH Issued: 1/11/21 Fees: $113.19 Valuation: $3,000.00 Address: 182 SW ACADEMY ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532AA04200 Owner: POLK COUNTY Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Commercial Type of Work: Tenant Improvement Work Description: Duct Revisions and 3 added Exhaust Fans 233-21-000022-MECH Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $500.00 Address: 287 SW WASHINGTON ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532DA12200 Owner: BOLLMAN, INC Licensed Prof: SEE PROPERTY OWNER INFORMATION Category of Construction: Commercial Type of Work: Replacement Work Description: Replacing existing crematory with like machine.

Commercial Mechanical 2 permits issued $205.72 $3,500.00

Commercial Structural

233-20-000624-STR Issued: 1/27/21 Fees: $411.03 Valuation: $4,500.00 Address: 186 W ELLENDALE AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DD01200 Owner: EIG14T NOVA OR DALLAS LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Commercial Type of Work: New Work Description: 2 new channel letter wall signs, and 1 new monument sign for Nova Health Urgent Care

Commercial Structural 1 permits issued $411.03 $4,500.00

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Residential Mechanical

233-21-000037-MECH Issued: 1/27/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $3,288.00 Address: 1267 SE HOLMAN AVE 1, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533DB03901 Owner: TEXIT LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Replace Existing Furnace 233-21-000039-MECH Issued: 1/27/21 Fees: $127.48 Valuation: $12,335.00 Address: 760 SW NATALIE ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532BC02000 Owner: VANDESTREEK LAURIE D, TR Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: INSTALL GAS FURNACE AND A/C 233-21-000040-MECH Issued: 1/28/21 Fees: $127.48 Valuation: $10,049.00 Address: 1401 W ELLENDALE AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000707 Owner: WESLEE PROPERTIES, INC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: INSTALL AIR HANDLER & HEAT PUMP

Residential Mechanical 15 permits issued $1,864.59 $67,592.93

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Residential 1 & 2 Fam Dwelling (New Only) Limited

233-20-000653-DWL Issued: 1/22/21 Fees: $19,706.54 Valuation: $204,780.00 Address: 1629 SE BARBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA11000 Owner: GLEANNS AT BARBERRY I LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1490SF SFR TGAB9 L12 233-20-000655-DWL Issued: 1/6/21 Fees: $20,054.65 Valuation: $248,007.30 Address: 439 SE SHETTERLY DR, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA14700 Owner: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Licensed Prof: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: New Home OG 10 Lot# 11 233-20-000657-DWL Issued: 1/11/21 Fees: $19,796.34 Valuation: $330,317.49 Address: 376 NW DENTON AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DB08700 Owner: DAVID KERNS CONSTRUCTION INC Licensed Prof: DAVID KERNS CONSTRUCTION INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: new construction The Oaks Lot# 13 233-20-000658-DWL Issued: 1/6/21 Fees: $18,801.78 Valuation: $236,880.54 Address: 2078 SE ACADEMY ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534AA01500 Owner: CERES GLEANN 2 LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1719.3SF SFR 233-20-000666-DWL Issued: 1/22/21 Fees: $19,862.39 Valuation: $221,824.59 Address: 1640 SE BARBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA11400 Owner: GLEANNS AT BARBERRY I LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1614 SF SFR 233-20-000667-DWL Issued: 1/22/21 Fees: $19,632.58 Valuation: $196,354.41 Address: 1644 SE BARBERRY AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA11300 Owner: GLEANNS AT BARBERRY I LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: 1421 SF SFR

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Residential 1 & 2 Fam Dwelling (New Only) Limited

233-20-000668-DWL Issued: 1/19/21 Fees: $19,886.13 Valuation: $334,234.74 Address: 433 NW Crater Lake DR, Dallas, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000505 Owner: CARVER DEVELOPMENT LLC & BAKER RAYMOND K Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: Construction of new single family dwelling 233-20-000672-DWL Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $18,850.28 Valuation: $235,000.00 Address: 450 NW Cascade Mountain DR, Dallas, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000505 Owner: CARVER DEVELOPMENT LLC & BAKER RAYMOND K Licensed Prof: REMINGTON BUILT INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: New SFD 233-20-000673-DWL Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $19,132.89 Valuation: $265,010.40 Address: 481 NW Crater Lake DR, Dallas, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000505 Owner: CARVER DEVELOPMENT LLC & BAKER RAYMOND K Licensed Prof: REMINGTON BUILT INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: new sfd 233-20-000674-DWL Issued: 1/26/21 Fees: $19,150.15 Valuation: $264,962.10 Address: 390 NW Cascade Mountain DR, Dallas, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000505 Owner: CARVER DEVELOPMENT LLC & BAKER RAYMOND K Licensed Prof: REMINGTON BUILT INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: new sfd 233-20-000677-DWL Issued: 1/25/21 Fees: $19,816.19 Valuation: $329,815.47 Address: 447 NW Crater Lake DR, Dallas, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000505 Owner: CARVER DEVELOPMENT LLC & BAKER RAYMOND K Licensed Prof: REMINGTON BUILT INC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: new sfd 233-21-000005-DWL Issued: 1/26/21 Fees: $20,935.91 Valuation: $345,000.00 Address: 471 SE SHETTERLY DR, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534BA14300 Owner: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Licensed Prof: HAYDEN HOMES LLC Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: new construction

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Residential 1 & 2 Fam Dwelling (New Only) Limited 18 permits issued $370,885.93 $4,745,072.98

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Residential Mechanical

233-21-000001-MECH Issued: 1/5/21 Fees: $318.70 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 359 SE COURT ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533BC13500 Owner: GOOD LAWRENCE S & YVONNE B Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Addition Work Description: install gas furnace, air conditioner and ductless heat pump 233-21-000006-MECH Issued: 1/7/21 Fees: $127.48 Valuation: $6,860.00 Address: 354 NW DENTON ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DA00400 Owner: CROMWELL-COLE RACHEL Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: INSTALL GAS FURNACE 233-21-000008-MECH Issued: 1/8/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $3,047.00 Address: 885 SW CANTERBURY CT, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532AC06741 Owner: HARMS HERBERT & PATRICIA Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Pellet Insert & Liner 233-21-000009-MECH Issued: 1/9/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $4,125.93 Address: 2446 SW MAPLEWOOD DR, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 08506AD06900 Owner: YAMAMOTO GEORGE M & DENISE C Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: installing gas line and free standing gas fp 233-21-000010-MECH Issued: 1/11/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $4,000.00 Address: 1393 SW ALEXANDER DR, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532BB03800 Owner: HUSTON TAMI & JUSTIN Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Addition Work Description: install wood stove 233-21-000017-MECH Issued: 1/14/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $4,984.00 Address: 1401 W ELLENDALE AVE 9, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 075290000707 Owner: WESLEE PROPERTIES, INC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Replacement Work Description: install furnace

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Residential Mechanical

233-21-000018-MECH Issued: 1/15/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 1928 SE GORDON CT, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 08503BB03300 Owner: DARR GREGORY L & DEBORAH A Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Manufactured Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Replace bathroom fan. 233-21-000020-MECH Issued: 1/19/21 Fees: $130.39 Valuation: $3,800.00 Address: 1928 SE GORDON CT, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 08503BB03300 Owner: DARR GREGORY L & DEBORAH A Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Manufactured Dwelling Type of Work: Addition Work Description: Installing a ductless heat pump with one air handler for Erick Darr, 503-949-0450. 233-21-000021-MECH Issued: 1/19/21 Fees: $130.39 Valuation: $3,800.00 Address: 631 SE WALNUT AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533BD07000 Owner: SHAW LORETTA K Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Addition Work Description: Installation of ductless heat pump with one air handler for Loretta Shaw, 503-551-9382. 233-21-000029-MECH Issued: 1/21/21 Fees: $127.48 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 450 SE LACREOLE DR 148, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533A000107 Owner: GREENWAY Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Addition Work Description: install air handler and heat pump 233-21-000031-MECH Issued: 1/21/21 Fees: $127.48 Valuation: $11,304.00 Address: 622 NW BRENTWOOD AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DB01500 Owner: MADSEN MARK R & TINA L Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: INSTALL AIR HANDLER & HEAT PUMP 233-21-000036-MECH Issued: 1/26/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 631 SE WALNUT AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533BD07000 Owner: SHAW LORETTA K Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Replace bathroom fans.

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Residential Plumbing

233-21-000014-PLM Issued: 1/11/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $2,500.00 Address: 1437 SW TENTH ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532CD05400 Owner: DAVIS MITCH JR Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: adding a shower 233-21-000015-PLM Issued: 1/12/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $500.00 Address: 665 SW SHEILA ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532BB07500 Owner: PEDERSON MICHELLE Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Replacement Work Description: Install a new shower and ice maker line. 233-21-000019-PLM Issued: 1/18/21 Fees: $303.55 Valuation: $8,905.00 Address: 1434 SW CHURCH ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532DD01400 Owner: SOUGSTAD PATRICIA C Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Repipe and new water service 233-21-000024-PLM Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $150.00 Address: 522 NW PERKINS CT, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529DB08300 Owner: CHIRA CONSTRUCTION INC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: Installation of Backflow device 233-21-000025-PLM Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 1315 SW ELEVENTH ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532C001600 Owner: KINDWALL FAMILY LLC Licensed Prof: SEE PROPERTY OWNER INFORMATION Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Replacement Work Description: replace sewer line 233-21-000027-PLM Issued: 1/20/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $0.00 Address: 1042 SE SHELTON ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533CB08300 Owner: Ariel Hunt Licensed Prof: SEE PROPERTY OWNER INFORMATION Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Replacement Work Description: Replacing sewer line.

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Residential Plumbing

233-21-000034-PLM Issued: 1/25/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $1,800.00 Address: 1344 SW NINTH ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07532CA04300 Owner: STEVE BENNETT CONSTRUCTION LLC Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: New Work Description: make sprinkler system 233-21-000041-PLM Issued: 1/28/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $2,000.00 Address: 665 SE FIR VILLA RD, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534A001000 Owner: PERKINS STEVE Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Move current auto washer. Install new toilet and laundry faucet. 233-21-000043-PLM Issued: 1/29/21 Fees: $92.53 Valuation: $5,800.00 Address: 339 SE COURT ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07533BC12600 Owner: VERLEY MATTHEW & GERLICK-VERLEY AMANDA Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Alteration Work Description: Adding a sink/toilet/light/light fixture and dividing wall

Residential Plumbing 9 permits issued $1,043.79 $21,655.00

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Residential Structural

233-20-000654-STR Issued: 1/11/21 Fees: $141.73 Valuation: $5,000.00 Address: 1493 SE BROOKSIDE AVE, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07534CC02800 Owner: HERNANDEZ ALFONSO & JAUREGUI PETRA Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Detached Accessory Structure Type of Work: New Work Description: West coast metals will be assembling a 30 X 30 structure on concrete. 233-21-000013-STR Issued: 1/26/21 Fees: $228.54 Valuation: $6,219.00 Address: 1960 SE Uglow ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 08504B000106 Owner: CRAWFORD MIKEL R & DEBRA J Licensed Prof: WEST COAST METAL BUILDINGS INC Category of Construction: Detached Accessory Structure Type of Work: New Work Description: Metal Carport 233-21-000035-STR Issued: 1/26/21 Fees: $1,003.02 Valuation: $65,757.00 Address: 608 NW HEATH ST, DALLAS, OR 97338 Parcel: 07529AD06400 Owner: SELF NEDRA JEANNE, TR Licensed Prof: Category of Construction: Single Family Dwelling Type of Work: Other Work Description: Installation of roof mounted solar PV generation system

Residential Structural 3 permits issued $1,373.29 $76,976.00

48 permits issued $375,784.35 $4,919,296.91

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